McCain will win?

jonny72

I'm getting that nagging feeling.. voting machines, October surprise, "closet racism", etc... will McCain snatch it?

Even if the polls showed Obama 20% ahead I still won't believe it till I see it..

Nodin

Well, I remember when Kinnock was expected to beat Major, and ended up wandering round with a dazed look of horror on his face when it didn't happen.... That was due to this.....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_Factor

Its not too far fetched to imagine an American equivalent....

therewillbe

"RECOUNT" ON CH 4 TONIGHT, HAVE A LOOK . 5 Stars about the 2000 election and what went on. A shower of gangsters in suits.

MagicMarker

I don't think Obama's marginal lead is anything to get confident over. I'm rooting for Obama, but if i were a betting man i'd probably opt for the oven chip guy.

ninty9er

Nodin wrote: »

Well, I remember when Kinnock was expected to beat Major, and ended up wandering round with a dazed look of horror on his face when it didn't happen.... That was due to this.....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_Factor

Its not too far fetched to imagine an American equivalent....

I imagine that US voters, the same as voters in all countries will be attracted to new blood, but then when they get to the polling booth and are about to vote X, the think "what if X ****s up?" and they vote for the elder statesman.

I expect McCain to win, though if Obama was restricted to the $84m federal funding of his campaign, I would expect McCain to win by a much larger margin, hell if Obama didn't have the money to buy his way through this campaign, I'd expect Hillary Clinton to be President elect next week.

jonny72

Just found this.. as to how the rest of the world thinks..

www.iftheworldcouldvote.com

If McCain wins, Sarah Palin will be the second most powerful person in the world...

Obama will win.

For those of you who think the old guy will win he is available at about 10/1 in bookies

Tootsie

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/02/the_bradley_effect.html

I'm not a big fan of American politics but this election is amusing on many fronts !!!!!
I would also like Obama to win,but I think something called the Bradley effect will happen. The Americans are telling the pollsters one thing but will vote the complete opposite way....

ninty9er

Tootsie wrote: »

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/02/the_bradley_effect.html

I'm not a big fan of American politics but this election is amusing on many fronts !!!!!
I would also like Obama to win,but I think something called the Bradley effect will happen. The Americans are telling the pollsters one thing but will vote the complete opposite way....

Need I remind anyone that FG and Labour were forming a coalition a week before our election last year, and we're supposedly much better educated politically as a nation.

Biggins

I would like Obama to win but yet again, I wouldn't put it past the Republicans to steal it again with yet another court case.

ninty9er

Biggins wrote: »

I would like Obama to win but yet again, I wouldn't put it past the Republicans to steal it again with yet another court case.

I don't think it'll take a court case this time. Odds on McCain have narrowed to 6-1

Dirk Gently

rarnes1 wrote: »

Obama will win.

For those of you who think the old guy will win he is available at about 10/1 in bookies

where? best I can find is 7-1.
@ 10-1 I'd be tempted to throw a few quid on the scale of vote rigging and polling day closest racism.

Firetrap

I'd be wary of opinion polls in this case. I think there's plenty of closet racism out there. In the Bradley Effect case, people even fibbed in the exit polls!

Darragh29

jonny72 wrote: »

I'm getting that nagging feeling.. voting machines, October surprise, "closet racism", etc... will McCain snatch it?

Even if the polls showed Obama 20% ahead I still won't believe it till I see it..

I also worry about this. I look at the power and control that huge US multinationals like Microsoft, Dell, Intel, etc must have in Washington and how they would not like to see a president elected who wants to bring overseas jobs back to the US, by getting rid of tax cuts for corporations that shop jobs overseas.

I almost fear the people who not just elected but RE-ELECTED George Bush, it is mind boggling how they work out what is best for them.

Nodin

Darragh29 wrote: »

I almost fear the people who not just elected but RE-ELECTED George Bush, it is mind boggling how they work out what is best for them.

Indeedy.

Mr.Micro

If McCain did win then the shock would probably kill him and Palin steps in. She would give Bush a run for his money and that's saying something. No worries it was only a nightmare.

TriciaDelicia

:pac::pac:I was looking at a worldwide poll and almost every country in the world is in favour of Obama from 70% upwards and then there's countries like Iraq, Iran who favour McCain. Which says it all.:(
I'm worried that when all the crazy white trash from the bible belt (with their prehistoric and sometimes evil beliefs) come out to vote McCain will win.

nesf

Moved to correct forum.

Sully

Could easily sneak in with a win - and he knows it. Dont trust US elections tbh.

clown bag

clown bag wrote: »

where? best I can find is 7-1.
@ 10-1 I'd be tempted to throw a few quid on the scale of vote rigging and polling day closest racism.

Yeah sorry, its 7.2/1 on Betfair. It was up near 10's not so long ago. Probably not a bad price on a two horse race but I cant see him getting in. I hope not anyway;)

Het-Field

I wouldnt rule it out. However, if I was to rule it in it would be to a very small extent

PeakOutput

i still think its 50-50 obama should win and i hope he does but i dont think you can factor in stupidity / racism / last minute propaganda(or whatever the opposite to propoganda is) / and the power of people in the republican party

Biggins

It took me days to get over the shock of Bush winninga second term.
I had to kept asking myself how could so many be so blind and stupid?

Until the last important state has announced its officialy count and Obama is declared (we hope) the winner, I definately won't be counting my chickens before they hatch.

Polls are just that - quoted figures. When it comes to pen to paper, ticking the right box on the day, nothing is certain.

Another Republician era just down right scares many including me.

Dirk Gently

Yeah, I think I'll throw a few quid on it. There's already a strong base of crazy people, add to that closest racism on polling day which I think will be a big factor, add to that x amount of black voters who will not get to vote or x amount of strategically located voting machines which will be in short supply in certain democrat areas or just not count the vote correctly and I think it will be closer than the polls suggest. I still expect Obama to win but at 7-1 it's worth a little flutter on Mc Cain.

If Mc Cain does steal it then there better be riots untill the fraud is exposed and Obama is put in. ( after the bookies paid out on my bet of course :pac: )

toiletduck

I was just thinking reading through this thread with smugness and superiority in abundance, how would I react to it if I were a yank. Same goes for sites like who the world would elect. I reckon a very natural reaction would be similar to that in 2004 when the hilariously ill thought out Guardian letter writing campaign to Clark County Ohio backfired.

As it stands, I reckon Obama will do it. At this point I just can't see McCain pulling through.

Teacherman

Obama will win-his lead is narrowing but given the state of the Economy there is no way he will lose. Comparisons with Kinnock dont wash. The British economy at the time was seeing signs of recovery and the Brits hadnt entangled their nation in a pointless war.


I would bet my house on an Obama victory and many Americans cant do even that with the amount of foreclosures. As for Bradley effect-Obama is less Black than Bradley in many ways.

ninty9er

Obama is to McCain, what Marx is to Churchill.

Comparatively very left leaning.

A lot of middle America can see Obama as "socialist". While he may be anything but in international eyes, that is what America sees from a "re-distributor" and that could mark the final nail in a campaign that must have cost over $1bn at this stage. That's not very equitable now, is it;)

Overheal

Obama's lead is doing anything but narrowing according to CNN

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/

MagicMarker

God I can't wait for Tues!! Time difference sucks though.

Einstein

it's not that I'm against McCain winning, it's the fact that he's so old...and if something were to happen him, Sarah Palin would be in control of the lot...now THATS terrifying...

eVeNtInE

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eoin2nc

TBH I dont trust the polls that much, but when paddypower are giving Mccain odds of 6-1 in a two horse race, it would have to be a huge upset for him to win. The bookies will lose a fortune if they get it wrong

miju

thats a bet I took yesterday (he's 11/2 btw )

I personally feel the closet racism will see Mc Cain limp over the line

Biggins

eVeNtInE wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Dear God, I hope not!
More years of Republican politics, heaven help the planet!

KerranJast

Biggins wrote: »

Dear God, I hope not!
More years of Republican politics, heaven help the planet!

McCain is no ordinary republican. I wouldnt be surprised if he sacked half the hardliners if he gets in. It surprises me how everyone thinks racism will deny Obama when his race is the main reason hes even a contender. In 4 years maybe but hes only in the door before he started running. That said either man will be a change for the better.

horseflesh

ninty9er wrote: »

Obama is to McCain, what Marx is to Churchill.

Comparatively very left leaning.

A lot of middle America can see Obama as "socialist". While he may be anything but in international eyes, that is what America sees from a "re-distributor" and that could mark the final nail in a campaign that must have cost over $1bn at this stage. That's not very equitable now, is it;)

"The final nail"??
When did we miss all the other nails???

Obama will win this easily, it won't even be remotely close.

miju

horseflesh wrote: »

Obama will win this easily, it won't even be remotely close.

famous last words

amacachi

Obama has it in the bag alas.

marco_polo

He would need all the 50-50 and slightly Democratic leaning states to fall his way on the day, and I just cannot see that happening.

I don't think that race will be an issue at all TBH, at least not in any of the states that are not firmly in the McCain camp already.

miju

Does no one else think that given all the economic hassles the fact Obama can only muster a 7 point lead in the last few days is a bit worrying?

marco_polo

miju wrote: »

Does no one else think that given all the economic hassles the fact Obama can only muster a 7 point lead in the last few days is a bit worrying?

I'm not sure, my suspicion is that the percentages of core Republican and Democratic voters is quite high and as a result the available 'floating' vote in America is not as large as in other countries.

EDIT* Also it may be that McCain has done a pretty good job of seperating himself from the current administration in they eyes of the public. (In spite his voting record).

Personally were it not for his running mate I would not have been too dissappointed to see him as president.

ninty9er

miju wrote: »

Does no one else think that given all the economic hassles the fact Obama can only muster a 7 point lead in the last few days is a bit worrying?

The thought of either of them is worrying to be honest...and becomes even more so each day that passes.

horseflesh

miju wrote: »

famous last words

See you on Wednesday morning

mumhaabu

McCain will take Pennsylvania and the election, the Democrats will then only have themselves to thank for losing it by putting forward a Black man instead of a White Woman, you will see alot of Hillary's supporters will defect to the McCain side and they will are what are called closet Republicans and will be doing it because of Sarah Palin as VP.

You will also see alot of Whites who claim they will vote for Obama will not due to Race... they won't admit this but it will happen, I predict Obama will fare worse than Kerry did in 2004. The Great American Decade will continue and I for one hope that George W. Bush will have a say and I hope he will continue in politics for a long time to come as he is one of the true greats.

MagicMarker

mumhaabu wrote: »

McCain will take Pennsylvania and the election, the Democrats will then only have themselves to thank for losing it by putting forward a Black man instead of a White Woman, you will see alot of Hillary's supporters will defect to the McCain side and they will are what are called closet Republicans and will be doing it because of Sarah Palin as VP.

You will also see alot of Whites who claim they will vote for Obama will not due to Race... they won't admit this but it will happen, I predict Obama will fare worse than Kerry did in 2004. The Great American Decade will continue and I for one hope that George W. Bush will have a say and I hope he will continue in politics for a long time to come as he is one of the true greats.

*tumbleweed*.......




...... Anyway, I was watching a good program last night on both candidates, and although i'm rooting for Obama, it's clear that either candidate is a huge improvement on Bush. So, win win for America!!!

cornbb

mumhaabu wrote: »

The Great American Decade will continue and I for one hope that George W. Bush will have a say and I hope he will continue in politics for a long time to come as he is one of the true greats.

*snigger*

The era of an America controlled by people who think like you will come to an end on weds morning, and good riddance too.

Otacon

mumhaabu wrote: »

McCain will take Pennsylvania and the election, the Democrats will then only have themselves to thank for losing it by putting forward a Black man instead of a White Woman, you will see alot of Hillary's supporters will defect to the McCain side and they will are what are called closet Republicans and will be doing it because of Sarah Palin as VP.

You will also see alot of Whites who claim they will vote for Obama will not due to Race... they won't admit this but it will happen, I predict Obama will fare worse than Kerry did in 2004. The Great American Decade will continue and I for one hope that George W. Bush will have a say and I hope he will continue in politics for a long time to come as he is one of the true greats.

I honestly thought your points, though I disagree with them, were well made... until that last sentence.

Bush has one of the lowest approval ratings of any US President, he has had a detrimental effect on US foreign relations and was at the helm of one of the worst economic disasters in history.

While I greatly respect McCain and his views, prior to this election campaign, his VP decision and swings to the right have left a bad taste in the mouth of moderates on both sides of the aisles, who previously I'm sure, may have seen him as a worthy candidate. He would have been an outstanding President in 2000.

cornbb

mumhaabu wrote: »

You will also see alot of Whites who claim they will vote for Obama will not due to Race... they won't admit this but it will happen

Has it occurred to you that maybe a lot of whites who claim they will vote for McCain due to race might actually vote for Obama? They won't admit this but it will happen.

blobert

McCain now at 12.5/1 on Betfair, pretty impressive odds for any event where there only 2 possible outcomes.

His odds been going up steadily, I think it may be worth a small bet...

Will see where he is later this evening.

Darragh29

Just looking at PaddyPower.com, odds for Mc Cain to win are 13/2, so a tenner down on Mc Cain to win will pay you back 75 yo yo's, if he wins...

I'm hoping Obama will do the business but it's by no means wrapped up yet, I'm surprised the odds are so high for Mc Cain to win.

Dirk Gently

blobert wrote: »

McCain now at 12.5/1 on Betfair, pretty impressive odds for any event where there only 2 possible outcomes.

His odds been going up steadily, I think it may be worth a small bet...

Will see where he is later this evening.

You can get 18 on betfair at the moment. I jumped at 14.5 early this morning. I'll be surprised at anything other than a big obama victory (that kind of vote rigging just seems too hugh to pull off) but I couldn't resist a cheeky bet on Mc Cain earlier.