Breeders Cup Meet Betting Thread

mike65

My picks from tonights card

8.35 Ventura
9.15 Laragh
9.55 Stardom Bound
10.35 Halfway to Hevean
11.15 Zenyatta

I'm going to stick a 5 fiver on a place-bet accu at 8/1

Mike

rynners

Is Curlin a lumpy bet to be had?

corban

rynners wrote: »

Is Curlin a lumpy bet to be had?

i for one wont be lumping on curlin, even though he will probably win... its such a competitive race, too many possible variables which could effect the outcome....

then again what do i know?

rynners

fair enough.. put it another way though.. is Curlin very good value at 2/1? I think so.. and will have a small packet on.

corban

mike65 wrote: »

My picks from tonights card

8.35 Ventura
9.15 Laragh
9.55 Stardom Bound
10.35 Halfway to Hevean
11.15 Zenyatta

I'm going to stick a 5 fiver on a place-bet accu at 8/1

Mike

just going through card now to make some selections... any strong reasons behind any of your selections mike?

corban

rynners wrote: »

fair enough.. put it another way though.. is Curlin very good value at 2/1? I think so.. and will have a small packet on.

i must apologise, i spoke before checking price! at 2/1 curlin represents good value.... i fully expected him to be odds on....
i will defo have a punt at that price.... but i will not be lumping on... for the following reasons:

henry and the duke..... class horses if they are fully loaded..

rynners

Yeah but no..in a way.
Henry and the Duke no doubt shortlist material. Good odds on them and given every ponderable I feel good value for each way (but I do feel one has to chose between one or the other so as not to be backing everything!). For win purposes Curlin I feel is the bet. Henry and/or the Duke as savers?


You should note in this reply that my knowledge of these respective horses is limited and I don't have back up reasoning for what I say, only a feeling looking at curlin's races on youtube (that boy's a star and duke/henry are not imo in comparason). Also, yeah but no is no way to reply so apologies from me. I should really scrap this reply and don't want the question to overshadow Mike65's post. So march on without me..

corban

rynners wrote: »

Yeah but no..in a way.
Henry and the Duke no doubt shortlist material. Good odds on them and given every ponderable I feel good value for each way (but I do feel one has to chose between one or the other so as not to be backing everything!). For win purposes Curlin I feel is the bet. Henry and/or the Duke as savers?

and i suppose there has to be a big IF about o briens duo... he's had those horses at their best for a long hard season...then shipped to santa anita...fatigue could be an issue...

i'm going to have another good look at the card....

corban

to have an interest i'm looking at:

ventura 7/2
heart shaped ew at 14/1
pursuit of glory ew 10/1
halfway to heaven 7/2
ginger punch ew 10/1

i cant wait for tomorrows action......

mike65

corban, I'm just following a mix of money/form/pundits

Mike

corban

mike65 wrote: »

corban, I'm just following a mix of money/form/pundits

Mike

best of luck.... i was just looking for an edge...if anyone knew a lot about the american/argie horses...

mike65

http://live.williamhillradio.co.uk/radio-main.php?st=HR

Has a preview on a loop and they have an American expert giving his views as well I think - you may need to let the audio run for a while.

Mike

abouttobebanned

Curlin is good. But not as good without the steriods.

corban

mike65 wrote: »

My picks from tonights card

8.35 Ventura
9.15 Laragh
9.55 Stardom Bound
10.35 Halfway to Hevean
11.15 Zenyatta

I'm going to stick a 5 fiver on a place-bet accu at 8/1

Mike

looking good for u so far, i'm not doing too bad atm, i really thought heart shaped had won for me at 14s, but backed it each way so not bad... what runs by ventura and stardom bound...

admiralofthefleet

frankie on folk opera at 10's look like decent e/w value

Shan75

I fancy "Wait a While" in the F&M turf.Course and distance winner with top US turf jockey John Velazquez on board.

Cannot see Zenyatta being beaten but not interested in betting odds on.Cocoa Beach without favourite for me at 5/2.Improving filly she beat Ginger Punch(last years winner) last time at Belmont.

corban

the racing tonight has been fantastic....

mike65

Bah! Luckily I did fourfolds from five so I can only trust the red hot Zenyatta doesn't loose a leg in the last. Still annoying though. Race 4 was the one I most hummed and harred about.

Mike

Shan75

corban wrote: »

the racing tonight has been fantastic....

Agreed and it can only get better tomorrow with 9 races.

corban

any strong fancies for tomorrow? is curlin a banker for ye tomorrow?

mike65

Ho-hum. had the chance of a decent return but I make a small loss. I think the Aiden O'Brien tide has well and truly gone out.

Mike

rynners

Hi
It's worth having a look at the racing posts video preview of the classic before backing Curlin. "Curlin cannot be as dominant on this surface", His last 2 races were visually unimpressive", "forget the dubai world cup", "ladbrokes fancy a result", "if he wins he'll scrape home"... general consensus is that 2/1 is a price not to take.
Not advising anyone not to back him.. but to have a listen to the guide.
rynners

Shan75

My fancies for Saturday:

18:10--Sixties Icon--Genuine Group 2 class in Europe at 12f with a good turn of foot should be enough to see off his rivals.US horses don't do well at the distance.

18:50--Looks like this will be run at a searching pace with Califonia Flag in attendance so you will need one who stays 7f but is pacy enough for shorter.I would say Get Funky fits the bill here and I'd take him to turn around the form with California Flag on 7lbs better terms for 3 lengths.

19:30--Difficult one with Well Armed a deserved favourite.Albertis Maximus who he beat last time over 9f may be suited by the drop to 8f but I still think Well Armed will win this.

20:15--I think the ground might be too fast for Goldikova.Last year's winner Kip Deville should be well suited by this tight track and despite a disappointing run last time in Canada I'll take him to retain his title.

20:55---Another difficult one.I think there are doubts about the form of Square Eddie's Keeneland win and Bushranger, despite being very good, may not say the distance.I think the two to concentrate on are Street Hero and Midshipman, first and second in the course and distance Norfolk.I think now that Midshipman has the benefit of Garret Gomez in the saddle I'll side with him.

21:35--The US Juvenile turf division is fairly weak so this makes you think Westphalia is probably O'Briens best chance.However I'm not convinced he will really enjoy the fast ground.He may of course have enough in hand to win anyway.The other one that interests me is Bittel Road who looks a tough customer.

22:15--Despite the fact Fatal Bullet looks like he has speed to burn I don't really like the idea of a three year old winning a US sprint race.Fabulous Strike will hopefully ensure a scorching pace and I think Street Boss will be well suited by this and can turn around the form with Cost of Freedom and land the prize.

23:00--This is a difficult one.The ground might just be too fast for Soldier of Fortune.Grand Couturier looks like he won't like the track.I'm not at all convinced about Leger form of Conduit and he struggled to win over 12f at Goodwood previously.Also his breeding would suggest preference to slower ground.Red Rocks is interesting as he will love this fast ground and is fresh after only 3 runs.Eagle mountain is the other interesting one as he showed probably his best form at Epsom which is tight and downhill just like here at Santa Anita.Mike DeKock has shown great talent at bringing horses back.It looks between these two to me.

23:45--Curlin is an obvious choice and although he was not hugely impressive in his last run he is still the best horse in the race.The surface is the one concern here.The two I'd give a chance to if Curlin underperforms are Colonel John, two time track winner who battled very hard to win a decent Travers at Saratoga last time and Henrythenavigator whose sharp turn of foot could be seen to great effect here.He looks to have a decent chance of stepping up to 10f and in fact looked like he wanted further than 8f in the QE2 at Ascot last time.

ziggy

This post has been deleted.

corban

i'm going to hedge bets today:

muhannak each way 16/1
fleeting spirit ew 6/1
well armed 5/2
us ranger ew 10/1
street hero ew 9/2
westphalia 11/4
fatal bullet ew 6/1
eagle mountain ew 6/1
henrythe navigator ew 15/2

going to the boozer to watch this tonight...should be fantastic racing
difficult to predict outcomes so gonna keep most of my stakes relatively small
best of luck everyone....
ps anyone staying home can watch it here:
http://www.breederscup.com/webcam.aspx

mike65

Place bet fivefolds from 7

Zappa
Lewis Michael
Kip DeVillle
Street hero
Westphalia
Fatal Bullet
Curlin

edit muhannak wins 10/1 well done corban

Mike

corban

a good start.... fingers crossed for the rest

Shan75

Well done Corban indeed.Not so well done by Dettori.Pathetic ride.Maybe the horse wasn't good enough or didn't like the surface but he was never given a chance by Dettori.Well done to Pat Smullen.

corban

Shan75 wrote: »

Well done Corban indeed.Not so well done by Dettori.Pathetic ride.Maybe the horse wasn't good enough or didn't like the surface but he was never given a chance by Dettori.Well done to Pat Smullen.

a nice win for ireland!! dettori was blocked in and bumped about...never had a chance after that...

mike65

Get Funky 7/1 e/w

edit pffffft I'm throwing no more at this!

Mike

corban

what a finish by the winner...massive outsider...never would've picked him ever...

Shan75

I thought Diabolical had it in the bag.That winner came from nowhere.You haven't much chance when complete outsiders win.I could do with a winner now after a bad start.Come on Well Armed.

corban

Shan75 wrote: »

I thought Diabolical had it in the bag.That winner came from nowhere.You haven't much chance when complete outsiders win.I could do with a winner now after a bad start.Come on Well Armed.

thought u had it with diabolical, unlucky. well armed ran terrible race....

Shan75

Spectacular performance from Goldikova yet again showing how good Zarkava is.Kip Deville ran well but couldn't cope with Goldikova's turn of foot.

Shan75

Yes---Cometh the hour Cometh Garret Gomez and Midshipman.

00dyel

won on Goldikova earlier, got Eagle Mountain E/W and Curlin to Win in few races time.

Lemon

Won on Midshipman too....Curlin later..have Coronet ofa Baron e/w in the next..though I think Westphalia might win

Shan75

What a finish.Murtagh beaten by a small margin again.He must be thinking it won't be his weekend.The US turf juveniles as predicted are not up to much.

NewApproach

I cannot find anyway to fancy Soldier of Fortune in the next, and is the lay of the weekend for me.

Red Rocks is very good e/w value in the same race imo. He is a previous winner of this race, and has been trained specially for it this year, unlike many of his opponents. Also he tends to save his best form for the US, quite possible thanks to being allowed to use Lasix.

NewApproach

Soldier of Fortune is now 8/5 in the states, and around 9/4 on betfair.

This is a crazy price, and he must be taken on

rynners

NewApproach wrote: »

Soldier of Fortune is now 8/5 in the states, and around 9/4 on betfair.

This is a crazy price, and he must be taken on

good call

NewApproach

rynners wrote: »

good call

Cheers, hope you took him on.

When I wrote the first post he was around 4s, and I had already laid him pretty heavily.

The in no time he shortened a ridiculous amount, and I nearly wet myself!!!! So I posted it again!

Shan75

Very impressive display from Conduit.I didn't think he'd handle the firm ground but he had no problem and should fantastic speed to mow down the leaders.

It's been a great Breeders Cup and it would be rounded off on a high if Curlin could defend his title.

rynners

henrynav and ravens pass behaving very badly prelims.. beware
henry 21/1 in states.

NewApproach

And ravens 20/1.

Even if ravens dosn't win, he is sure to trade short in running, having a ton of speed, and dettori riding him, there is every chance he could cruise up in behind the leaders 2 out. This could see him trade very short.

Thing that makes the above 20s or so a very attractive back to lay IR proposition in my opinion

NewApproach

rynners

Brilliant ride by dettori, brilliant ravens pass.

00dyel

ravens pass won im guessing, who was placed?

NewApproach

00dyel wrote: »

ravens pass won im guessing, who was placed?

Yes he won, brilliant performance from both horse and jockey (pains me to praise frankie, but its deserved).

Henrythenav was second, Tiago third.

Curlin was 4th, and the US tele cant believe it! He was beat. Get over it!

rynners

it wasn't ground that beat curlin either, given the way he motored around that field on the bend. He just didn't have it at the end.

Shan75

rynners wrote: »

it wasn't ground that beat curlin either, given the way he motored around that field on the bend. He just didn't have it at the end.

Totally agree.I was disappointed with Curlin.He found nothing in the last couple of furlongs.Fantastic display from Raven's Pass and Henry also ran a great race.