Budget 2009 Thread - All discussion here

mike65

A few random predictions

50c on pack of 20
10-15c on a litre of road fuel
10% hike in road tax and classic car status ended
VRT tweaked - Classic car status ended
Stamp duty ATM cards, debit cards, credit cards increase
Standard tax band frozen, rate rise of 1%, top rate rise 2%

Wild Card - local tax based on property valaution at a very low rate

Mike

dresden8

Seems reasonable apart from the Fuel.

The transport industry is screaming already that they're fooked.

damnyanks

Given that people have less money what is the likelyhood that these changes make little impact on the governments revenues.

We've seen people give drinking a knock on the head to save cash. Maybe they will stop smoking as wel.

is_that_so

Agree with most of suggestions but not fuel.
Reckon tax might be 2% in both bands.
Carbon tax plan - maybe a tax, at a low rate of say 3%.
FTB initiative(no idea what)
Think property tax is unwise at present but may see some messing around with stamp duty again

May see some attempt to take some more lower-paid out of tax net (can't necessarily afford it but politically looks good)
Possible PRSI ceiling abolition
Social welfare payments up by 3%
Means testing of over 70s medical card
Inclusion of child benefit as income
Lots more cuts

NDP to be reviewed(mothballed for a year), apart from current work in progress
Possible capital expenditure increase on schools and maybe social housing
Expect Metro North to be "deferred"
Proposal for third level fees payable by those earning > €100K
VAT down by 1%(wishful thinking )

leninbenjamin

i'm pretty sure college fees will be on the agenda.

I expect to see some pretty drastic cuts to the HSE also.

and 2009 to be the 'year of the strikes'.

mike65

is_that_so wrote: »

Agree with most of suggestions but not fuel.

VAT down by 1%(wishful thinking )

I reckon they'll claw back the recent falls in fuel and a bit more. As for VAT, they tried that before and almost none of it was passed on, and that was in good times!

Mike

andrewdeerpark

Agree with a lot of the ideas here.

Think college fees being abolished for any couple earning over 120K a cert and correct.
Cannot see the medical card for over 70's being abolisher simply because their is not enough staff to implement.

And my dark horse - inheritance tax - big changes here especially with the value of property increasing and pop getting older, expect to see the bands reduced and any non-immediate relative getting hammered at the high rate.

Also water rates on domestic house a possibility for new houses anyway and the gov blaming the EU for this one.

mike65

I did think about the inheritance bands being reduced but hey, I figured they'd want to avoid accusations of robbing the next generation.

Mike

gurramok

Well, they need to claw back a €7bn+ deficit. If they are true to their convictions, expect public sector cutbacks big time as the old reliables outlined by the OP will not shore up the finances, it needs bigger taxes and/or cutbacks.

dresden8

Decentralisation "postponed" i.e. scrapped.

Burial

I'd say a pack of twenty would rise to €8.50
Tax on Spirits and beers to increase, but how much I'm unsure...
Cost of licence of alcohol to go up
Income tax raised by 1-3% but be reduced to levels as they currently are in 5 years.
De-centralisation postponed
Increase in plastic bag levy
Increase in petrol price. (Not sure if they will but I have a feeling they will)


I'm not an economist, nor did I do economics but those are my guesses...

As for college fees, I think it would be political suicide to re-introduce them... However, I don't doubt the Irish Governments incompetence...

*EDIT*

I realise this doesn't make €9 billion, probably doesn't even make 1 billion, but maybe raise VAT?

DJDC

As for college fees, I think it would be political suicide to re-introduce them... However, I don't doubt the Irish Governments incompetence...

Not to mention the effect it would have on a brain drain. All our top LC students will just go to the UK to study because there will be no incentives to stay here with college fees. I can see most 550+ point students going abroad to study which would be disasterous for our universities.

gurramok

Don't they have to take out student loans in the UK to study? (whats the latest on that)
I don't mind fees for the rich who can afford it.

Anyone owning 2 or more properties should have some sort of tax levied as they get far too much tax back via the mortgage interest and fixtures &fittings write-off as the rental market is saturated and no need for subsidies anymore.

I still can't see how €9bn will be recouped without pain every year and rises in personal taxes looks obvious but needs political willpower.

Run_to_da_hills

Road tax up for all vehicles.
Motorcycles will probably go up from e60 to e80 for anything over 250cc.
Also increase in Dog licences.

ranger4

Capital gains up to 30% Possible property rates system introduced, whatever they decide will be painfull for all, execept themselves.

rasper

all those points sound like they'll have the effect of deepening the recession and the recession mentality, so what are gonna be the positives surely the 2 Brains have a "New Deal" that they're gonna bowl us over with.
after all its an emergency budget not just an increase in the old reliables

copacetic

is_that_so wrote: »

Possible PRSI ceiling abolition

this one looks like it will happen, will have a serious knock on effect on a lot of peoples monthly income. eg someone on say 80k would be €100 or more worse off a month with the change. will be a money spinner I guess but such a big hike in prsi for people in one go seems a little unfair. The 50k limit isn't as high relative to wages as it used to be so it will really pinch anyone with a decent wage but with high mortgage/childcare costs already/

Possibly fairer to abolish the ceiling but reduce the % paid above the current ceiling rather than taxing everything over 50k at same 4% rate.

dfbemt

PRSI - ceiling eliminated
Income Tax - All rates up by 1%
VAT - all o% and 13.5% up to 21%
Inheritance - Hammered
Mortgage Interest Relief - Eliminated for 2nd and more houses
Med card - gone for all new over 70's without means test
Child benefit - calculated as income
Civil Servants - reduced pension benefits for future entrants

I agree with earlier post '2009 - year of strikes'

FF will allow themselves take a hammering in the local elections - sure what are councillors good for other than rezoning land for developers ??

mumhaabu

I can see many changes but if I was doing the budget I would make immediate moves to trim the deficit and I would strike hard and fast several social welfare elements must go.

I would scrap all social-welfare payments to non-Irish, charity begins at home

All Public Employees need to be on contracts and begin axing the fat pig that is the Public service.

Tax bands should be left alone for all except those who earn more than €125,00 a year, these people did well from the boom and should put their tax shoulders to the wheel now but not as bad as the eighties wherby everyone avoids it.

Leave Vat, VRT and Fuel Duty alone.

Cut spending don't raise taxes, slash day to day spending and borrow for long term infrastructural projects, look at the national disaster that is Broadband Ireland.

Public servents, redtape and social welfare should get the boot.

Inheritance tax should be left alone completely and raise the price of cigarettes to €9 a pack plus increase the penalties for cigarette smugglers to a mandatory €5,000 or 6 month prison sentence plus a lifetime ban from Ireland for those caught doing it.

For every €1 collect in Cigarette tax as much or not more is spent on Health care and Cigarettes will soon be the 3rd leading cause of death in Ireland. Tax without mercy and fine for smoking in Public.

leninbenjamin

mumhaabu wrote: »

For every €1 collect in Cigarette tax as much or not more is spent on Health care

i'm gonna dispute this. where are your sources? everything i've seen on the subject suggests otherwise, that smokers actually use less health resources over the course of their lifetime, as they tend to live shorter and die quicker.

in a perverse way our government should be encouraging smokers, as it will also help lower the overall population age and reduce the number of dependents.

:pac:

dresden8

leninbenjamin wrote: »

i'm gonna dispute this. where are your sources? everything i've seen on the subject suggests otherwise, that smokers actually use less health resources over the course of their lifetime, as they tend to live shorter and die quicker.

in a perverse way our government should be encouraging smokers, as it will also help lower the overall population age and reduce the number of dependents.

:pac:

And solve that feckin' pensions crisis.

polts

1) cigs tax up 25c a packet
2) child benefit included as income
3) early childcare supplement stopped for 3 years
4) alcohol tax up 10c
5) dole money and other weekly payments frozen for 2 years
6) fuel allownace raised 5 euro
7) 15% higher road tax
8) tax frozen for people earning under 40-50k a year
9) major cuts to hse

Darragh29

My 2 cents worth...

Corporation Tax: up 1.5%

VAT: up 1%

PAYE: up 1-2%

Cigs: up 10%

Alcohol: Up 5%-10%

Fuel tax: up 1%

An SUV/High value vehicle road supplement tax

Free 3rd level education: Gone for high earners

Tax breaks introduced for Irish Banks

TD's: Pay cut of between 5%-10% on the cards, to prevent rioting after announcing the above.

LightningBolt

Sneaky feeling that the overnment will close of the carry back of losses to reclaim tax paid in profitable years ie Property developers claiming losses this year won't be able to use the said losses to reclaim tax on profits made over the past few years.

Burial

When is the budget anyway?

gabigeist

Any big sell offs predicted? Coillte, Aer Lingus stake, west link... that sort of thing.

Burial

Governement has already sold off Aer Lingus I believe...

Économiste Monétaire

Burial wrote: »

When is the budget anyway?

Tuesday the 14th, i.e. 5 days away.

Burial wrote: »

Governement has already sold off Aer Lingus I believe...

They still hold 30% (or 33.33*%) of Aer Lingus stock for the national interest.

mumhaabu

I'd say the way Aer Lingus are going the chances are the Government will be buying back stock and nationalising it, Aerlines are in turmoil worldwide and both Air New Zealand and Aerolineas Argentinas (both flag carriers) were both recently nationalised.

I think the Government will be buying rather than selling now, however sack a few thousand lazy civil servents to balance the books first.

Burial

I don't think they can legally buy aer lingus back or legally finance it. Isn't it against the law or something?

thebman

Abolish Comreg and about half the regulators and introduce a single regulatory body for these areas with about half the staff and give them the powers to regulate so they have nobody to blame but themselves for not regulating and we save the wages of all the toothless regulators we have at the moment.

Burial

What's the story with college fees? Are they definatly bringing those in?

gabigeist

rasper wrote: »

all those points sound like they'll have the effect of deepening the recession and the recession mentality, so what are gonna be the positives surely the 2 Brains have a "New Deal" that they're gonna bowl us over with.
after all its an emergency budget not just an increase in the old reliables

Someone mentioned TD pay cuts which I think would be hugely popular.

Also at times like these, there's always johnny foreigner to pick on as they have no real voice in politics. I'm sure the Brian's will find some way for the government to hinder them sending money home in remittances/joining the dole queues.

thebman

gabigeist wrote: »

Someone mentioned TD pay cuts which I think would be hugely popular.

I don't see that happening. The government likes rewarding themselves too much for anything they do or don't do as the case may be.

polts

brim4brim wrote: »

I don't see that happening. The government likes rewarding themselves too much for anything they do or don't do as the case may be.

Well if they dont and everyone else gets cutbacks then they wont stand a chance in the next election, so i think they will have to if they want to stay in power.

Burial

I think its kind've a given they'll have to take a cut if they plan to cut any jobs/wages in the public sector, otherwise they'll be thrown out!!

thebman

They should have been thrown out long ago so I wouldn't be surprised if they at least try to get away with it TBH.

rasper

polts wrote: »

Well if they dont and everyone else gets cutbacks then they wont stand a chance in the next election, so i think they will have to if they want to stay in power.

According to some economists it would be advisable to deliver a ruthless budget now because they've nothing to lose being so far from a general election and people have goldfish memories.
Hopefully they get slaughtered for their lies and hypocracy but your typical Irish voter is far to entrencehed in parish pump politics and the politicians know how to buy those votes.

mike65

Thats not true, the average voted is like a small child being lured across the carpet with a bright twinkly toy - the promise of a bright tomorrow fools us everytime (its why all parties pretty much pretended the slowdown was not coming the last time).

Mike

mrgaa1

what I would do:

• Put cigarettes up to at least €9. All smokers to become registered and pay a renewal fee for the license to smoke every year of €5 plus 10 times their age e.g. aged 56 pay €565 euros. No-one under the age of 21 allowed to smoke. All tourists must pay for a temporary license when here. If a dog needs a license, if you need a permit to park then why not introduce a license to be able to smoke. Ban all smoke breaks at work - they reduce productivity.
• Alcohol sold in off-licenses, supermarkets must match pub prices in equivalence increase by whatever it takes - prices in pubs not to be touched.
• Fine all parents of all underage drinkers €1,000 everytime they are caught. If they can't pay take the monies from their pay or they state benefit.
• income tax up 1.5%
• VAT - remain as is
• corporation tax - reduce by 0.5% - encourage more companies to move here
• remove the unions, assess all public workers and remove the dead wood
• do not remove any monies from the health service - if possible increase it. The health service is the single most important entity in this country.
• Increase tax on waste collection per bin pick up or by weight. anyone caught fly tipping etc.. to be fined as per the drink option above
• Force banks to lend money - if they don't fire the boss's and replace as required. Lending to be done in a controlled manner.
• Remove all funding to farmers and make them work to supply products for our home market.
• Encourage more home produce with tax breaks. Home produce must be cheaper to buy in the shop that imported goods.
• Ask Northern Ireland to introduce passport checks at tills for those running up north to buy cheaper goods. This way their passport can be scanned and a tax levied on them
• Alternatively reduce the tax's in our country to match to avoid shoppers taking their money to a part of our country where the government can't get the tax.
• Investigate all supermarkets, business's where price comparisons are more than 10% than Northern Ireland. Fine the companies involved 100 times the price difference per item.

there are three other areas that need some work: how Ireland handles its waste, its CO2 emissions and getting construction back onto its knees.
Construction because this is where they are missing so much money - housing, infrastructure and dealing with the huge CO2 emissions problem should be the areas to concentrate. The CO2 emissions issue comes with a HUGE penalty where the government are fined by the EU for not reaching targets. Encourage people to buy energy efficient homes, upgrade their own homes etc..
WASTE is anothe problem and if the government implements a WASTE and energy efficient drive a new revenue stream could be drawn up - currently we are only touching the problem - we need to get hold of it.

Some of the above may be a bit extreme but we are in desparate times.

rasper

mrgaa1 wrote: »

what I would do:

• Put cigarettes up to at least €9. All smokers to become registered and pay a renewal fee for the license to smoke every year of €5 plus 10 times their age e.g. aged 56 pay €565 euros. No-one under the age of 21 allowed to smoke. All tourists must pay for a temporary license when here. If a dog needs a license, if you need a permit to park then why not introduce a license to be able to smoke. Ban all smoke breaks at work - they reduce productivity.
• Alcohol sold in off-licenses, supermarkets must match pub prices in equivalence increase by whatever it takes - prices in pubs not to be touched.
• Fine all parents of all underage drinkers €1,000 everytime they are caught. If they can't pay take the monies from their pay or they state benefit.
• income tax up 1.5%
• VAT - remain as is
• corporation tax - reduce by 0.5% - encourage more companies to move here
• remove the unions, assess all public workers and remove the dead wood
• do not remove any monies from the health service - if possible increase it. The health service is the single most important entity in this country.
• Increase tax on waste collection per bin pick up or by weight. anyone caught fly tipping etc.. to be fined as per the drink option above
• Force banks to lend money - if they don't fire the boss's and replace as required. Lending to be done in a controlled manner.
• Remove all funding to farmers and make them work to supply products for our home market.
• Encourage more home produce with tax breaks. Home produce must be cheaper to buy in the shop that imported goods.
• Ask Northern Ireland to introduce passport checks at tills for those running up north to buy cheaper goods. This way their passport can be scanned and a tax levied on them
• Alternatively reduce the tax's in our country to match to avoid shoppers taking their money to a part of our country where the government can't get the tax.
• Investigate all supermarkets, business's where price comparisons are more than 10% than Northern Ireland. Fine the companies involved 100 times the price difference per item.

there are three other areas that need some work: how Ireland handles its waste, its CO2 emissions and getting construction back onto its knees.
Construction because this is where they are missing so much money - housing, infrastructure and dealing with the huge CO2 emissions problem should be the areas to concentrate. The CO2 emissions issue comes with a HUGE penalty where the government are fined by the EU for not reaching targets. Encourage people to buy energy efficient homes, upgrade their own homes etc..
WASTE is anothe problem and if the government implements a WASTE and energy efficient drive a new revenue stream could be drawn up - currently we are only touching the problem - we need to get hold of it.

Some of the above may be a bit extreme but we are in desparate times.

I wouldn't call them extreme , more deranged on top of those why not

Gas the weak,elderly and disabled(parasites)
Nationalise the entire rural agricultural areas into gulags to feed the worker
Ban religion and confiscate it's ill gotten gains
Annex NI for Lebensraum


My list can go on , but I reckon yours stops when it affects you

mumhaabu

rasper wrote: »

I wouldn't call them extreme , more deranged on top of those why not

Gas the weak,elderly and disabled(parasites)
Nationalise the entire rural agricultural areas into gulags to feed the worker
Ban religion and confiscate it's ill gotten gains
Annex NI for Lebensraum


My list can go on , but I reckon yours stops when it affects you

I thought he was going pretty good until he contradicted himself with:

• Remove all funding to farmers and make them work to supply products for our home market.
• Encourage more home produce with tax breaks. Home produce must be cheaper to buy in the shop that imported goods.

Is this not a contradiction the statement above it. The Smoking licence couldn't work and would make Ireland a laughing stock plus it impinches on our Civil liberties. Just tax em high and fine those smuggling them very hard with prison sentences also. I hate cigarettes so much but I get a happy feeling to know that those people (ignorant smokers) are improving genetic quality by removing themselves early.

Passport check in the North? We need more freedom not less, tax harmonisation on the Island of Ireland would be more appropriate.

I disagree with increasing tax on Waste Collection, I believe that nobody should have to pay for waste collection directly, It should be a utility provided by private enterprise and the councils if they see fit. It should be available and mandatory to everyone. Everyone should pay via either a poll tax or household rates, that way everyone gets a good service and the stinge bags today who pollute and wreck the countryside (because they are too cheap to pay for a rubbish collection get to dispose of rubbish without the moral crisis they face).

In NYC "garbage collection" is mandatory and done regularly and funded through the taxes, if it was a choice of pay or not the City would drown under its own filth, this way they have no choice but to pay (the money is garnished from their wages i.e. tax) and everybody gets a good service plus private industry is happy too as there is higher levels of recycling and thus revenues from sale of said materials.

stressed out

• Get rid of the 30 day holidays entitlement for the civil service. They should get the same as the rest of us.
• Remove dead wood from the Civil Service
• All foreign nationals removed from Social Welfare - Irish cannot claim dole in Europe. The gov probably won't do this for fear of being rascist :rolleyes:
• DO NOT reduce minimum wage or social welfare payments. There will be many people on the dole in the coming months (It could be you) so don't bite the hand that feeds
• Smoking and Drinking are easy targets and will be increased as usual
• Whats the story with the super rich that never paid tax - has that been sorted out? Sorry haven't kept up if it has. Surely they should pay what they have owed over the years? Joe Soap has to if the taxman catches up with him. In fact I would say that would be enough to cover the deficit we have :mad:

edanto

mrgaa1 wrote: »

[*]corporation tax - reduce by 0.5% - encourage more companies to move here

No fecking way. Corporation tax has to go up. Ireland is officially a Tax Haven according to Christian Aid and their report on tax dodging.

The BS reason that companies need a low rate of tax to flourish is shown to be codswallop by the fact they can survive in higher taxation environments overseas.

There is a rationale for giving companies that are involved in the financial services sector a punitive rate of tax for the situation that they have enabled - but that would get so messy so quick. It's far more equitable to increase the rate of Corporation tax across the board by about 3-5%. This can easily be framed as some necessary belt tightening for the corporate sector, after years of being allowed to benefit from state spending on infrastructure, health, education as well as the tax breaks.

If our companies can't survive in a mature tax climate then they will just have to go under. Don't worry about the jobs, the more efficient and capable companies will absorb them.


Also - rich people should pay more tax, but there's a whole thread about that!

copacetic

edanto wrote: »

If our companies can't survive in a mature tax climate then they will just have to go under. Don't worry about the jobs, the more efficient and capable companies will absorb them.

sweet jebus, what a simplistic and silly view of what would happen. which more efficient and capable companies will replace Dell, Intel, Google and Microsoft when your plan drives them out of Ireland?

Économiste Monétaire

stressed out wrote: »

• All foreign nationals removed from Social Welfare - Irish cannot claim dole in Europe. The gov probably won't do this for fear of being rascist :rolleyes:

Two questions: First, have you studied economics before? Second, what entitles you to social welfare, specifically unemployment benefit?

dresden8

stressed out wrote: »

• Get rid of the 30 day holidays entitlement for the civil service. They should get the same as the rest of us.
  

Impose a tax on badly researched posts.

edanto

copacetic wrote:

sweet jebus, what a simplistic and silly view of what would happen. which more efficient and capable companies will replace Dell, Intel, Google and Microsoft when your plan drives them out of Ireland?

Just had a look though your post history to see if I could pick up any facts about this or another economic topic and I don't really see much history.

If you are well briefed in things like the proportion of corporation tax receipts that come from the companies you mention and the likely impact on accelerating their plans to leave Ireland, could you provide some links and research?

thanks

andrewdeerpark

stressed out wrote: »

• Get rid of the 30 day holidays entitlement for the civil service. They should get the same as the rest of us.
• Remove dead wood from the Civil Service

Plus remove their church holiday entitlements; yes still lingers in some sectors of public service
Plus their entitlement for 1/2 hr off to cash their wage cheque even through most now paid directly into the bank.

On another post, Dell notebook & desktop productions is leaving Limerick with server production to remain plus some R&D just over 1000 jobs to remain. Government needs a plan in place.... interesting times.

Greenmachine

75c on a pack of Cigarettes
Increased duty of 2E per litre of spirits.
Increase in the health levy from 2%-2.75%.
Reduction in CE scheme numbers.
Plastic Bag tax increased to 30c.
Introducing of paper bag tax of 12c.
4% Increase in pension, unemployment, and disability payments.
Increase in higher tax band by 2%.
Removal of PRSI cap.
Minor revisionof VAT system, some items from class C vat to B, A small but larger number moved from B to C.


Hay I may as well be a little original in my forecasts.

Ordinary man

Everyone seems to think its fair for smokers to be taxed to the hilt on health grounds, so in the interests of health of a nation why not a FAT tax. Everyone gets weighed by a doctor and charged by ever pound of weight over their ideal weight. This would be a massive money maker considering all the obese people waddling around the country. Surely they are costing as much if not more to the health system as smokers?