Irish economy goes into recession "officially"

digitally-yours

So its Official now.

Recession is here.


The Irish Republic's economy has fallen into recession after shrinking for a second quarter in succession.

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) said gross domestic product (GDP) had contracted by 0.5% in the three months to the end of June.

The economy had shrunk by 0.3% in the first quarter of the year. Technically, a recession is defined as two or more successive quarters of negative growth.

It is the first time Ireland has experienced a recession since 1983.

House building issues

Earlier this month, the Economic and Social Research Institute predicted the Irish economy would contract by 0.4% over the year after growing by 6% last year.

Dermot O'Leary, chief economist at Goodboy Stockbrokers, said: "We have acceptance now that the economy is in recession in 2008. The issue is whether it will improve in 2009.

"One thing we know for sure is that investment spending is going to continue to act as a drag on the economy in 2009, particularly on the house building side.

"We know also that the labour market is deteriorating - so that is going to affect consumption spending. So it does not look like it is going to be a v-shaped recovery."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7635426.stm

kaimera

glad I'm not at home now -.-

'officially' of course

Silenceisbliss

......" read the RUN FOR THE HILLS" that was posted about 3 minutes ago....

CiaranC

Yay, Im on the dole. I feel like a character from the commitments.

AnonoBoy

Double Recession???

Oh holy **** - we're ruined!!!!!!


Wait.

No.

Double post. *phew*

We're saved!

Silenceisbliss

DOUBLE RECESSION....:eek::eek::eek::eek:

jimmycrackcorm

It's actually a half-recession. Anyone or anything to do with construction is in Recession, for everyone else it's business as normal.

anonymous_joe

Can't be long before we see a lot of people linked to the construction industry leaving the country for pastures new.

KTRIC

This is pure scare-mongering at its best. Did they actually think that people were going to pay €600k for a 3 bed semi in Jobstown ?

Kensington

I blame everyone who's ever voted Fianna Fail for this - thanks a bunch, bastids!!! :P

Ross_Mahon

I knew i should have invested in trees

LeahBaby

It was acceptable in the 80's..

Damn Calvin Harris and his jinxes

ejmaztec

All we've got to look forward to now is the next budget - gonna be a real hoot :eek: What you used to pay in tax, you'll be paid as salary and you'll never guess where the rest is going to go.

4zn76tysfajdxp

Oh ****, does this mean they're gonna make a second Commitments film?

Dancor

Ashton Purring Pearl wrote: »

Oh ****, does this mean they're gonna make a second Commitments film?

That would be brilliant, A where are they now/reunion type movie.

joe_chicken

From this day forth, Ireland Robot House is on do-deca-triple secret recession probation!

KTRIC

I'm sure the question on everyones lips is are mullets, stone wash jeans and tie die t-shirts coming back in ??

Stabshauptmann

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

It's actually a half-recession. Anyone or anything to do with construction is in Recession, for everyone else it's business as normal.

Nope, we've a credit crunch at the moment too - the FS sector is being hard pressed

gurramok

And retailers have been hit since Xmas with declining sales.

SV

Life is great.

super_furry

Well at least we'll get some good snow during the winter.

super_furry

KTRIC wrote: »

I'm sure the question on everyones lips is are mullets, stone wash jeans and tie die t-shirts coming back in ??

Coming back? There's been a veritable mullet-paloza in Dublin this year.

ejmaztec

dancor wrote: »

That would be brilliant, A where are they now/reunion type movie.

It's going to be called "Do you want fries with that?"

SV

So how long do these recession things last? Until people cop the **** on and start spending money again instead of hoarding it?

4zn76tysfajdxp

dancor wrote: »

That would be brilliant, A where are they now/reunion type movie.

Oh Jesus Christ, that's the worst idea ever.

Alessandra

Well it's hardly a big surprise.

What baffles me is why they are trying to lay all the blame on Brian Cowen? Surely FF and Bertie are also responsible for keeping us in the dark as to the extent of this and not doing enough to prepare for the bad times.

engrish?

I dont know what to do!!!!


I hate this crap. It would be great if there was a career advisor with recession in mind...

AARRRGH

Alessandra wrote: »

What baffles me is why they are trying to lay all the blame on Brian Cowen?

Cowen was Minister for Finance through some of the good times. He (and FF) tried to take credit for our booming economy - it was their good governance rather than the well performing US and EU economies which made things good in Ireland.

They were obviously full of ****, but if they want to take credit for the good times, they have to take the blame for the bad times.

AARRRGH

engrish? wrote: »

I dont know what to do!!!!

I hate this crap. It would be great if there was a career advisor with recession in mind...

Do something to do with the environment.

From the BBC today -

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7634792.stm

Or get a job in the civil service.

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

Cue mass emigration...

SimpleSam06

ClioV6 wrote: »

So how long do these recession things last? Until people cop the **** on and start spending money again instead of hoarding it?

I would have put it until 2012 or so, but the unbelievable carnage going on now in the international markets (and thats only just getting started) has taken even me aback somewhat, so it could be anytime after that really. Probably things will be more or less back on track by 2020 anyway. There has never been an economic shambles on a scale like this in history, and I say that without reservation. Multiple different factors are coming together simultaneously to produce something really special.

Ironically, the very behaviour that is the wisest to survive a recession is the same behaviour that will prolong a recession.

If we had reasonable leadership we could come through it more or less smiling, but since we don't, and the system makes it difficult for reasonable leadership to come to the fore, we're pretty much humped. I'd have a thought or two what to do if I was in charge.

engrish? wrote: »

I dont know what to do!!!!


I hate this crap. It would be great if there was a career advisor with recession in mind...

Rule 1: Get rid of all your debt. Now.

Rule 2: Save. Cash is king in a recession, everybody wants it.

After that you can basically choose one of two options, stick around or try your luck elsewhere. I'd advise against going to any English speaking country, most or all of them are in the same boat as us. Spend six months learning German and French, and you have just opened up options on working in a job market of almost a hundred million people, with a decent economy as well. You'll find a good spot there, especially if you are already qualified; the only retooling you need to do is learn the lingo.

If you plan to stick around, I'm not sure what to say really.

JP Liz

The Republic of Ireland has become the first European Union economy to be pushed into recession by the credit crunch. Irish gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 0.5% in the second quarter compared with the previous three-month period, according to data from the Central Statistics Office.That followed a contraction of 0.3% in the first three months of the year.
The technical definition of a recession is two or more successive quarters in which the economy shrinks.
Earlier this month, the European Commission predicted that the UK, Germany and Spain would also fall into recession before the year is out.
Dubbed the Celtic Tiger during massive growth in the late 1990s, the Irish business sector now faces its most difficult period since high unemployment and emigration hit the 1980s.
The Department of Finance pointed to the crumbling property market and the international credit crunch for the alarming figures.
A Government spokesman said: "As expected, lower levels of new house building had a major restraining influence on growth in the second quarter, as is evident from the very weak investment figures.
"Other factors at work include higher commodity prices, global financial market problems, weak demand in our major trading partners and adverse exchange rate movements."

Thank You Taoiseach and Fianna Fail

Piste

So what would get us out of recession?


I don't want to spend "The best years of my life" poor

Davidius

Recessions for the win.

SimpleSam06

Piste wrote: »

So what would get us out of recession?

About ten years, I'd say. How good a shape we are in at the end of the day depends on actions and policies implemented now, not in five years when bertie's boys have been run out of the place along with whoever comes in to replace them.

What I would do is:
Step 1:
Go on a rampage through the public sector, cutting off dead weight left and right without fear or favour. The problem with beaurocracies is that eventually the people that rise to the top end up caring more about the organisation than about the organisation's goals, so start at the top and work your way down. Healthcare reform, top of the agenda.

The unions would protest, weep, and threaten to bring the country to its knees (and they could do it too), so they need to be broken good and hard. I'm thinking along the lines of eminent domain for threatening the country, do your jobs or go to prison. Harsh yes, but needed, the purpose of the public sector is to support and maintain the nation, not the other way round.

That would more or less help the economy to break even so, then we move along to

Step 2:

Finance and build eight or ten world class educational institutions, with a difference, which is that they would be quite specialised. I'm think along the lines of

• Marine engineering and technology- We are an island ffs
• Chip fabrication- Chip fabs are high expense but low ongoing cost, and there is no reason we couldn't do it as well as people in Taiwan
• Robotics and Automation- If you want to compete with slave labour conditions in the third world, you need free labour, to whit automation
• Pharmaceuticals- Again another soft market, once you have the result you can reproduce it for half nothing
• Bioengineering- Biofuel algae, marine life, hydroponics, the list goes on and on
• Materials science- SOme very interesting things going on in this field at the moment
• Energy physics- Batteries and supercapacitors, these will be vital components no matter what happens in the future
• Cultural and artistic- We have a rich culturaltradition here, which needs to be developed centrally, and turned into tourist bobs as well as reflected in a variety of ways throughout society
• Software and media- More high initial cost, low ongoing cost industries, also vital for marketing for any other industries founded

Plus a few others.

The mandate of these institutions would be not just to educate but to research. Also they would provide a massive cash boost to any town or city they are placed in, ongoing.

Step 3:
While your institutions are being built and start pumping out graduates, the overall aim of government would be to improve infrastructure, roads, rail, electricity, telecomms, basics like water, and generally prepare for industrial growth.

You can then create and fund domestic industries for each group, much more private than semi state, and each of those would then lead directly on to subsidiary industries, and so on.

I am aware that a plan like this would put us badly in the hole to the tune of tens of billions, but we're going there anyway, so we may as well get something out of it. Not to mention that if even one or two of these groups successfully produce industries, we'll have that paid back smartly.

luckat

The unions "need to be broken good and hard", do they? Working people shouldn't have the right to join a union?

I'm self-employed, but I'm so disgusted by this statement that I'm going straight out to join a union, and on the way will phone up a few friends to persuade them to join too.

It amuses me that people (a) foam at the mouth that the civil service is overstaffed, and (b) foam at the mouth that they can't get the services they want RIGHT NOW YESTERDAY. Who's going to give you those services if you sack everyone? Ghosts? (Non-unionised ghosts? Blackleg ghosts?)

The recession has (I would think) happened here because of FF's pals ratcheting up the property sector so that house prices rose, dragging up the cost of labour with them.

When I bought my house 20 years ago it cost me three times my annual wage. If I were earning the equivalent now, and sold it now, it would sell for 17 times my annual wage.

Not to mention the fact that FF and their pals talked the talk (incessantly) about making Ireland a highly-educated country and targeting R&D, high finance and other high-end jobs - but starved education of money, so that our educational system has sunk in quality.

PullMyFinger!

SimpleSam06 wrote: »

What I would do is:

Ive read Sam's comments here and, I think, the AAM board too. I reckon he should be Minister For Finance. For real.

Sam for Minister/President.

SimpleSam06

luckat wrote: »

The unions "need to be broken good and hard", do they? Working people shouldn't have the right to join a union?

Unions served a valuable purpose in the past, but these days they far more serve to drain resources from companies, the day of the 80 hour working week is gone.

Normally the problem is self correcting, in that the company goes bankrupt, but in the case of the government, it literally can't go bankrupt, although not for lack of trying from the unions. The public sector has become a millstone around the neck of the nation, and it needs to be sorted out rapidly.

luckat wrote: »

I'm self-employed, but I'm so disgusted by this statement that I'm going straight out to join a union, and on the way will phone up a few friends to persuade them to join too.

Good man, enjoy paying higher taxes to feed the public sector machine, which has grown in size and salary at three times the rate of the private sector for the last ten years with nothing to show for it, while you're at it as well.

luckat wrote: »

Who's going to give you those services if you sack everyone? Ghosts? (Non-unionised ghosts? Blackleg ghosts?)

Ho ho, anyone providing valuable service is not dead wood. That would be the point of the dead wood comment I made above. Or did you ever wonder why the public sector premium has jumped so high in the last decade with no appreciable increase in services? Good one though.

luckat wrote: »

The recession has (I would think) happened here because of FF's pals ratcheting up the property sector so that house prices rose, dragging up the cost of labour with them.

The recession happened because credit markets tightened and this had knock on effects to the rest of the economy. Not that this in any way excuses the appalling squanderation of the gains over the last ten years by the government.

luckat wrote: »

Not to mention the fact that FF and their pals talked the talk (incessantly) about making Ireland a highly-educated country and targeting R&D, high finance and other high-end jobs - but starved education of money, so that our educational system has sunk in quality.

Spouting shite about a knowledge economy is very different to laying the groundwork for domestic export based hard industries.

SimpleSam06

PullMyFinger! wrote: »

Ive read Sam's comments here and, I think, the AAM board too. I reckon he should be Minister For Finance. For real.

Sam for Minister/President.

Would I have to go on the Brian Cowen diet to qualify?

Supercell

We're number one , we're number one!!
Does Australia and Canada realise that an Irish invasion is about to happen? Its the 80's all over again, except this time it could be worse.

Berties legacy, this is what we get for voting that assh0le in again and again (well not me..i never voted for the corrupt fcuker).

We also have the highest level of private debt in the world too, our economy is going to hell in a hand basket
And you know what Clowen and co are going to do in the next budget? - raid the state pension fund kitty to give sub prime mortgages to people the banks won't..because the houses are "worth it"..yep...thats your taxes and future well spent on the builders.

gixerfixer

SimpleSam06 wrote: »

About ten years, I'd say. How good a shape we are in at the end of the day depends on actions and policies implemented now, not in five years when bertie's boys have been run out of the place along with whoever comes in to replace them.

What I would do is:
Step 1:
Go on a rampage through the public sector, cutting off dead weight left and right without fear or favour. The problem with beaurocracies is that eventually the people that rise to the top end up caring more about the organisation than about the organisation's goals, so start at the top and work your way down. Healthcare reform, top of the agenda.

The unions would protest, weep, and threaten to bring the country to its knees (and they could do it too), so they need to be broken good and hard. I'm thinking along the lines of eminent domain for threatening the country, do your jobs or go to prison. Harsh yes, but needed, the purpose of the public sector is to support and maintain the nation, not the other way round.

That would more or less help the economy to break even so, then we move along to

Step 2:


Finance and build eight or ten world class educational institutions, with a difference, which is that they would be quite specialised. I'm think along the lines of

• Marine engineering and technology- We are an island ffs
• Chip fabrication- Chip fabs are high expense but low ongoing cost, and there is no reason we couldn't do it as well as people in Taiwan
• Robotics and Automation- If you want to compete with slave labour conditions in the third world, you need free labour, to whit automation
• Pharmaceuticals- Again another soft market, once you have the result you can reproduce it for half nothing
• Bioengineering- Biofuel algae, marine life, hydroponics, the list goes on and on
• Materials science- SOme very interesting things going on in this field at the moment
• Energy physics- Batteries and supercapacitors, these will be vital components no matter what happens in the future
• Cultural and artistic- We have a rich culturaltradition here, which needs to be developed centrally, and turned into tourist bobs as well as reflected in a variety of ways throughout society
• Software and media- More high initial cost, low ongoing cost industries, also vital for marketing for any other industries founded

Plus a few others.

The mandate of these institutions would be not just to educate but to research. Also they would provide a massive cash boost to any town or city they are placed in, ongoing.

Step 3:
While your institutions are being built and start pumping out graduates, the overall aim of government would be to improve infrastructure, roads, rail, electricity, telecomms, basics like water, and generally prepare for industrial growth.

You can then create and fund domestic industries for each group, much more private than semi state, and each of those would then lead directly on to subsidiary industries, and so on.

I am aware that a plan like this would put us badly in the hole to the tune of tens of billions, but we're going there anyway, so we may as well get something out of it. Not to mention that if even one or two of these groups successfully produce industries, we'll have that paid back smartly.

"The unions have to be broken good and hard"...? why so then everybody except the lucky well educated few will have to settle for 10 euro an hour or less,because if the unions go (not that they are perfect) that's what the average Joe on the street will be earning.

Wibbs

PullMyFinger! wrote: »

Ive read Sam's comments here and, I think, the AAM board too. I reckon he should be Minister For Finance. For real.

Sam for Minister/President.

Funny I'd vote for the fúcka too so I second that.

Sooo right on the unions and the public sector. The civil service in this country in many many areas is an absolute joke. And has been an absolute joke for many a year. Idiot sons of idiot sons propped up by successive governments out of fear that they decide to down tools. I tell you in many sectors it would barely be noticed if they did. One could easily chop a third out of it with little disruption. I also agree with the prison angle for those who want to screw us further.

The public sector has gotten fat throughout the boom and we have little to show by comparison to the money spent. We have a health service that is beyond a laughing stock. A health service that is incredibly top heavy in admin.

SimpleSam06

gixerfixer wrote: »

"The unions have to be broken good and hard"...? why so then everybody except the lucky well educated few will have to settle for 10 euro an hour or less,because if the unions go (not that they are perfect) that's what the average Joe on the street will be earning.

I was more referring to public sector unions, not private sector unions. Also wages at a skilled level are more dictated by supply and demand than by unions, especially with increased labour mobility within the EU and globally. As for unskilled, thats already sunk with the influx of low cost economic migrants from Eastern Europe, unions or not.

Any group which threatens the long term well being of the country must be removed, and public sector unions do exactly that.

gurramok

luckat wrote: »

The unions "need to be broken good and hard", do they? Working people shouldn't have the right to join a union?

I'm self-employed, but I'm so disgusted by this statement that I'm going straight out to join a union, and on the way will phone up a few friends to persuade them to join too.

It amuses me that people (a) foam at the mouth that the civil service is overstaffed, and (b) foam at the mouth that they can't get the services they want RIGHT NOW YESTERDAY. Who's going to give you those services if you sack everyone? Ghosts? (Non-unionised ghosts? Blackleg ghosts?)

I think he means public/civil sector unions. For example there are more admin people than front line personnel working in the health sector, a first for Ireland Inc.

Terry

JP Liz wrote: »

Thank You Taoiseach and Fianna Fail

Yeah. It's all the fault of the government.
The government werre the ones who put ridiculous prices on houses. They were the ones who used cheap labour to build these houses thus leaving Irish people unemployed and unable to buy these over-priced houses.

Yes, the government hiked the prices on every single thing with the exception of tinned beer.

Listen, If you want someone to blame then you need look no further than the mirror.
Every single person in the country got greedy. The builders were the greediest and made an absolute fortune. Now some of them are going bust because of their greed and rightly so.

Then we have the massive influx of foreign workers who spent **** all money here and contributed very little to the economy.
Fair enough, the government can be blamed for that one. They should have capped the amount of people they let in.

These foreign workers are also partly to blame for the construction industry faltering.
They were merely migrant workers who had no intention of staying here. They worked for peanuts and, when you pay peanuts, you get monkeys.
Most of the work I saw that was done by foreign workers was completely and utterly sub par. This lead to more problems with houses that were falling apart even before they had been finished.

Now I know someone will call me racist for this point of view, but I couldn't care less. I know what I saw and I'm not going to bury my head in the sand these ****ers over-used when they were building walls.
I need only look out my back bedroom window at the extension my neighbour had built by these scam artists and laugh at the roof that will collapse if we get any snow. Another case of peanuts, monkeys and greedy Irish people.

I posted recently about the lack of work I was getting.
This week I had four seperate calls looking for repair work to be carried out. More monkeys, peanuts and greedy Irish people who will now have to pay me lots of money to repair the shoddy work done by foreign scammers who advertised themselves as tradesmen when they clearly hadn't a clue what they were doing. Less money too for the greedy Irish people who thought they were getting a bargain. They're going to pay for their greed because I'm not going to fix shoddy work for nothing.

Now onto the new rich and their penchant for all things flashy.
Today I point my finger and laugh at you and your large credit card debts, your massive mortgages on the houses you bought in a supposedly exclusive suburb which was way over-priced and you were stupid enough to buy it instead of buying a house down the road that would have suited your needs.

I will laugh at the second mortgage you took out to buy a car for you, your partner and the big SUV you bought to take your one child to school in. The school that is within walking distance of your over-priced house.

I'll laugh at you when you try to sell the extra vehicles to make ends meet and laugh again when you realise that it have lost 20 or 30% of its value.

Yes, you the fools who paid for the over-priced houses are partly to blame for this recession because you were all too willing to pay those prices and encouraged even further price rises.

Yes, all you people will sit back and moan about the state of the economy, but what exactly will you do to help change things?

Yes, that's right. You'll do absolutely nothing because you are a greedy, apathetic bunch of ****.

The French or Italian or <insert European country here> governments **** things up and these people take to the streets and get rid of that government. they get out and do something. But not us Irish. No. We're just to sophisticated for that. After all, we have a BMW in our driveway. We can't be seen on the streets with the poor people. What would the neighbours say?

I'll tell you what I say. I say **** the neighbours. Take it to the streets and fight for this country. It's the only way anyone will achieve anything. We only need to look to our European neighbours to see that.
Of course, you would probably need to take public transport in order to do that, so I suppose we'll just have to sit it out and hope the EU bail us out again.
You sad, pathetic bunch of absolutely greedy bastards.
I look forward to tiling the bathroom in the council house you have to move to when you can't meet your mortgage payments and the bank repossess your home. You will get everything you deserve.

Piste wrote: »

So what would get us out of recession?

Not being greedy, not trying to keep up with the Joneses, not being so apathetic, not paying ridiculous prices for property.

I don't want to spend "The best years of my life" poor

Off to Canada with you.

Huggles

Excellent post, well said Terry!

BroomBurner

While I believe that the government completely squandered the money it made throughout the last few years, the over-inflated price of things is also the fault of the Irish themselves.

Nobody complains enough in this country, everyone was just happy to be able to show off their wealth and spend spend spend without looking for bargains. This goes for everything. I had a big argument with people on a separate website (wedding related forum) trying to tell them that it was them paying ludicrously high prices for wedding services that kept the price high for everyone else. Only one person agreed with me. I was lambasted otherwise for having the nerve to come out with such boll!x. The other crazy argument against what I was saying was that "why should we help to lower prices for other people", the irony of which was totally lost on these people.

But that totally ignorant attitude to money has led to the increase in cost of general goods, etc. to date.

Don't worry though, come early next year, the prices should be well down as people come to their sense and just simply stop buying needless show-off crap.

SimpleSam06

Terry wrote: »

I'll tell you what I say. I say **** the neighbours. Take it to the streets and fight for this country. It's the only way anyone will achieve anything.

Genuine question, what would you do after taking to the streets?

Terry

SimpleSam06 wrote: »

Genuine question, what would you do after taking to the streets?

Mass protests daily outside the Dail and other government buildings.
Stay there until they start listening to the people they are supposed to represent.
Then make them take a pay cut and let them realise what it's like to struggle.

galwaydude

Alot of people in here make more sense than the jokes we have in power right now. Terry and sam excellent posts which make alot of sense.

thefinalstage

galwaydude wrote: »

Alot of people in here make more sense than the jokes we have in power right now. Terry and sam excellent posts which make alot of sense.

Vote thelastangryman for taoiseach. I'll do it for 50k a year and a two week holiday in Youghal every year. (I love that place)