Heavy Rain/More Floods possible this week.

Snowbie

ATM GFS has plotted two areas to watch out for this week. The first begins later Monday evening and into Tuesday when an area of rain will push up from the south from the Bay of Biscay region to affect the majority of the country. This band of rain will likely to be very heavy due to the humid moist origin.

The second we are again attacked from the west with fronts moving across the country but stalls over the east which is why it is a concern atm. But this one is too far away to be exact.

M.T. Cranium

The Wednesday low is the extratropical remnants of Hanna, currently steaming across Newfoundland. There has been 60-150 mms of rain in the Canadian Maritime provinces (I kid you not) and also in New England yesterday from this moisture-laden storm. Severe urban flooding has been reported and roads are washed out in many places.

I think when the first wave moves through tonight into Tuesday morning there will be about 25 to 40 mms of rain in most parts of Ireland, then on Wednesday it will turn into mainly a wind event for Ireland with gales from the south veering to SW, but there is potential for 20-30 mms of rain to develop along the stalled fronts later, as much warmer air is being pulled north into the circulation. The later model run intensifies this wind potential for Ireland on Wednesday.

It seems that rainfall has been roughly twice normal in the past three or four months on both sides of the Atlantic in the coastal regions near the usual track of the jet stream, so perhaps we could speculate this is a result of the interaction of colder air trying to work its way into the mid-latitudes and dealing with warmer than average ocean temperatures. The result is near normal temperatures and very heavy rainfalls.

rovers_runner

Lads, do ye see this weather continuing into the winter ?
Or would ye link it to the busier than normal atlantic storm season ?

Hal1

It looks like theres heavy rain spreading from the SW to the east this afternoon on the latest gfs. Hanna is definately having an influance on thursdays predictions rovers_runner.

Supercell

Excellant stuff, wonder will I bust the 200mm mark this month for the first time.

nacho libre

I think this all points to a dry October.

Snowbie

Supercell wrote: »

Excellant stuff, wonder will I bust the 200mm mark this month for the first time.

lol, 190.4mm soooo close for last month myself. Its shaping up nicely again:pac:

nacho libre wrote: »

I think this all points to a dry October.

In what year:P Let it rain so it will keep the surface temps down much lower for our precious snow to settle and *blizzards that are forecast for January and Febuary*.






*This may not be accurate

squonk

The Kraftwerk gig that was supposed to take place in Lugala in Wicklow next Saturday has been moved to the Royal Hospital in Kilmainham now. Apparently Lugala is flooded. Good call given the rain forecast for this week and after what Supercell and the other lads from Wicklow have been saying for the past while, I didn't fancy a mudbath on Saturday.

Are we likely to get a bit of the wrath of Ike as well now after Hanna has gone though?

Supercell

Snowbie wrote: »

Let it rain so it will keep the surface temps down much lower for our precious snow to settle and *blizzards that are forecast for January and Febuary

A cunning plan there for sure.
I for one cannot find any possible flaw in your thinking.

tomcosgrave

squonk wrote: »

Are we likely to get a bit of the wrath of Ike as well now after Hanna has gone though?

Definitely not. Ike is headed for Louisana or Texas after it's done with Cuba - once in the Gulf of Mexico, hurricanes are not going to threaten anywhere in the Atlantic.

hawkwing

Issued at 08 September 2008 - 14:15
Weather warning
Heavy rain at times Monday night and Tuesday. Risk of flooding. Falls of 25 - 50 mm in places - possible anywhere, but most likely in Connacht and Munster.

Deep Easterly

Snowbie wrote: »

Let it rain so it will keep the surface temps down much lower

Rain will keep the temps lower alright, during the day; whilst rain will keep nighttime minima well up, a la August 2008. Perfect situation would be for all the rain to fall during the day, and then to clear up at night with some crisp, frosty nights, followed by more rain by morning and to continue throughout sun up. :cool:

Not everybody's cup of tea I admit.

Supercell

Cant see anything wrong with that Paddy

Snowbie

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Rain will keep the temps lower alright, during the day; whilst rain will keep nighttime minima well up, a la August 2008. Perfect situation would be for all the rain to fall during the day, and then to clear up at night with some crisp, frosty nights, followed by more rain by morning and to continue throughout sun up. :cool:

Not everybody's cup of tea I admit.

Uz mizunderstoodz. I said surface temp and not ze air temps. Surface being ze groundz for ze snowz to settlez onz.;):pac:

Danmz Zed keyz stucksz againzz.:Dz

Supercell

He'z lost it :pac::pac::pac:

cian1500ww

hawkwing wrote: »

Issued at 08 September 2008 - 14:15
Weather warning
Risk of flooding. Falls of 25 - 50 mm in places - possible anywhere, but most likely in Connacht and Munster.

Sweet about time we got a piece of the action

mike65

Looks like a bit of a non event for the, ahem sunny south east.

Mike

nacho libre

with these 40km an hour winds that are promised some of us may not be around to see the blizzards next January:pac:

Snowbie

Whats 40 k/ph in m/ph? :pac::D

billy the squid

Snowbie wrote: »

Whats 40 k/ph in m/ph? :pac::D

The simplest of equasions is to divide by 8 and multiply by 5

40 k = 25 miles

M.T. Cranium

Since most of you are likely asleep dreaming of snow and such, I can report seeing heavy rain reported at Cork for several hours 0400-0600h, looks like well over 25 mms in a six hour period there.

The wind with this first wave of moisture is nothing exceptional at all, but Wednesday will turn into quite a windy day, once again, not likely to be damaging or excessive, but 40-50 mph gusts for most and 70 mph possibly in more exposed locations. As to the rain with this second part (Hanna basically) that may be more convective and squally, amounts may be more variable than today's downpour.

A third event involves a low developing over southeast England on Friday, moving up the east coast of the U.K. then through Scotland, some model runs were suggesting this might back in some rain for Friday in parts of Ireland as well, something to watch for as fronts are going to stall after moving through Ireland.

irish_bob

i just wanted to say that having read the weather threads , i will never ever go out with someone who is a meteoroligist , they are obviously thee most boring people in the world
i say all this safe in the knowledge that no one will either be offended by this post or indeed reply to it as the only kind of posts that garner a reply in here are ones that state the wind speed in wicklow or the perticipation level in mayo, its a whole different language , weather speak

Supercell

I'll save you the bother of reading these "boring" posts. Banned.

paulhac

irish_bob wrote: »

i just wanted to say that having read the weather threads , i will never ever go out with someone who is a meteoroligist , they are obviously thee most boring people in the world
i say all this safe in the knowledge that no one will either be offended by this post or indeed reply to it as the only kind of posts that garner a reply in here are ones that state the wind speed in wicklow or the perticipation level in mayo, its a whole different language , weather speak

if your not interested in the weather or" weather speak" as you call it why bother with the post in the first place in this forum.

Snowbie

irish_bob wrote: »

i just wanted to say that having read the weather threads , i will never ever go out with someone who is a meteoroligist , they are obviously thee most boring people in the world
i say all this safe in the knowledge that no one will either be offended by this post or indeed reply to it as the only kind of posts that garner a reply in here are ones that state the wind speed in wicklow or the perticipation level in mayo, its a whole different language , weather speak

Spelingz pleaz spellingz's. Sometimes it might makes senze if one knowz what onez is talking aboutz.:rolleyes:

Meanwhile, no let up in the rain out west in seems but on this side it is lovely and sunny here.

Sierra Oscar

It has been raining non stop here since around 2:30PM.

cian1500ww

Is it going to get worse as the week progresses ?

squonk

cian1500ww wrote: »

Is it going to get worse as the week progresses ?

It will because we speak out own langauge and are boring, so we won't get dates. I'd predict some stormy periods as the week prgresses as we get knocked back by those we'd be trying to get a date with. Saturday night could well see a deep depression with precipitation for some :P

Snowbie

On the latest 12z GFS the intensity of the rain has downgraded but still enough to cause problems. Later runs could upgrade this again. Winds do remain strong southerly with gusts over 40mph can be expected.

ch750536

Just had my empty bin blown over, exciting enough for you?

Supercell

ch750536 wrote: »

Just had my empty bin blown over, exciting enough for you?

Careful now, go take a lie down there ch750536 to recover from the shock :pac::pac::pac:

Looks like a spell of decent rain is imminent in Dublin/Wicklow/Wexford.

LEIN

Lol.

Do you know around what time that will be hitting us Supercell?

Its getting very cloudy here but it seems to be light cloud with no potential in it.

DOCARCH

damo9090 wrote: »

Lol.

Do you know around what time that will be hitting us Supercell?

Any minute...........now!

Conor108

Its a little windy alright:D

Supercell

Within the next half hour i would have thought or not at all, looking at the satellite images it seems to be fragmenting up a lot in the last hour.

There is currently light rain here and its gotten pretty dark so should be imminent here hopefully

LEIN

There is some thicker stuff in the distance.
It has been spitting rain on and off since i got home at 5 but noting special to report yet.
Hopefully there is some fun and games on the way.

Supercell

And there it is, raining properly now, moderate intensity, should be with you in the next 10 mins or so damo9090

Hal1

Blustery showers here, with occasional gusts thrown in for good measure.

Sierra Oscar

No rain here at the moment, and it is not very windy either.

LEIN

Patchy rain atm.
Getting darker by the minute though.

Deep Easterly

Supercell wrote: »

I'll save you the bother of reading these "boring" posts. Banned.

Remind me to never, ever, step on your virtual toes Supercell

(Good ban by the way, that idiot sounds like he is a colossal buff :mad:)

daviddwyer

A bit of a non-event. Everytime the media hype something up -turns out to be a damp squid. Yesterdays front page news!!

squonk

daviddwyer wrote: »

A bit of a non-event. Everytime the media hype something up -turns out to be a damp squid. Yesterdays front page news!!

Well that's the media for you. Once a major event happens they latch onto that thread for the next few weeks, so flooding a few weeks ago means every LP system is now watched hawkishly and if it's even moderately heavy or gong to be relatively windy, it is good enough for full page news.

Same thing happened after the terrible bus crash 3 years ago in Meath. Anything involving a bus after that was overly hyped. It almost got to the stage of any bus getting involved in any prang got a mention from Ann Doyle. That's one example. The Tsunami a few years ago was another. They need to fill column inches and fill out timeslots so any old hype will do that.

Snowbie

Agree , I read it for my amusement. See the graphic in the Hearld the other night was funny for a start. Who does that i wonder?

The west is under a heavy band of rain and looks to be large totals there with also yesterdays rain which affected mostly the west and not the east. That band is pushing east atm.

So maybe they will get their story afterall?

Supercell

White radar returns over Connaught, don't often see that. Any reports on the ground there?

squonk

Supercell wrote: »

White radar returns over Connaught, don't often see that. Any reports on the ground there?

No, it's not looking good over in the North West at the moment. Could be a wet afternoon for us too, even if the precip is just in the yellow region by the time we get it.

A sun holiday would be nice at this stage...

squonk

Geez that rain is kicking off quickly across the country. last radar run it was only the West that was being deluged, now it's almost over to the east coast. Looks like another wet lunchtime so

cian1500ww

It has been continuously raining here since this morning, plenty of standing water now.

cian1500ww

Supercell wrote: »

Any reports on the ground there?

Very, very wet at the moment. Lots of rainf fell since this morning. Dark with heavy drizzle now very low clouds too. One word to describe it: miserable

ch750536

windy sunshine.

Snowbie

Windy and wet here.

5.8mm so far today.