Upside's of the downturn?

dceire

Given all the doom and gloom around what with all the War, crime, oil prices, global warming, flooding and in particular the 'recession' have we anything good to expect in the near future.

Here’s a few to get us started:
1. Seem's we'll all have less money maybe there will be less fat people!:D
2. You wont feel bad about giving crappy or hand-made presents for Christmas, birthdays etc.
3. You wont feel bad about staying at home watching TV for days!
4. Alot of good music is written about the bad times 'Rent Day Blues', 'Ghost of Tom Joad' etc

Macha

5. The idea of young professionals being able to afford a home isn't as laughable as it was 3 years ago
6. Cheaper rent - woohoo!

Turd Ferguson

People will stop giving their change to homeless people and they will all eventually die, thus cleaning up the streets.

Pj!

Yeah agree with the good music. We need something good to complain about to write good music.

dotsman

1. Seem's we'll all have less money maybe there will be less fat people!:D
Unfortunately, it tends to be those who have less money to spend on food who usually end up buying the cheap fatty foods, eating in chippers etc
2. You wont feel bad about giving crappy or hand-made presents for Christmas, birthdays etc.
You should always feel bad about giving a crappy present (well , if it's to me anyway;))
3. You wont feel bad about staying at home watching TV for days!
Just like student life so
4. Alot of good music is written about the bad times 'Rent Day Blues', 'Ghost of Tom Joad' etc
OK, I'll give you that (but you have to admit a lot of ****e music is also written during recessions - we'll start with rick ashley!)
5. The idea of young professionals being able to afford a home isn't as laughable as it was 3 years ago.
Well, it's actually getting worse for them as the banks will be lending less and they won't have jobs (high paying ones anyway) to pay the mortgage!
6. Cheaper rent - woohoo!
True, but seeing as renters are going to be renting for a very long time, they'll need all the help they can get!

Dirk Gently

dceire wrote: »

have we anything good to expect in the near future

estate agents will be unemployed and unable to secure a mortgage for themselves.

dceire

dotsman wrote: »

1. Seem's we'll all have less money maybe there will be less fat people!:D
Unfortunately, it tends to be those who have less money to spend on food who usually end up buying the cheap fatty foods, eating in chippers etc!

Dotsman your exactly whats wrong with these doom & gloom days, lighten up!
Anyway do you ever watch the news? May i draw your attention to third world countries, all the people look like Keira Knightly...now think Ireland in say 2 years. A load of ginger Keira Knightlys full of Freckles!!!:D

dotsman

dceire wrote: »

A load of ginger Keira Knightlys full of Freckles!!!:D

I'm sure there's a biblical reference for this...





































...oh yeah, armaggedon

dceire

I know it'll be great...now who's with me! ...Anyone?

ejmaztec

Old recession quip No 1.

Only a pigeon will be able to put a deposit on a Merc.

runningman

Anyone with a good permenant pensionable job becomes very attractive - roll on the super models!!!

mumhaabu

The best thing about the recession is maybe eventually people might wake up for once in their lifes and realise the proper bunch of ****€rs Fianna Fail are may learn to give them the electoral kicking they deserve.

Cookie_Monster

YOUR MA!!!

Run_to_da_hills

Those on the Dole now have it better than those in the 80ies, ie hundreds of Sat channels, Broadband, and a wide range of video game consuls to choose from so there is never a dull moment

On the downside of todays dole drawers is that they are only officially allowed 12 days annual holidays. If they want to travel abroad and they must get a form signed from the dole office before they leave the country

mumhaabu

Cookie_Monster wrote: »

YOUR MA!!!

I got banned from here for saying this how about a little consistency now!

ejmaztec

mumhaabu wrote: »

I got banned from here for saying this how about a little consistency now!

Saying what?

Turd Ferguson

ejmaztec wrote: »

Saying what?

For saying Yor....oh I see what you're trying to do there!!!

SimpleSam06

dotsman wrote: »

Well, it's actually getting worse for them as the banks will be lending less and they won't have jobs (high paying ones anyway) to pay the mortgage!

That would be one of the major reasons prices are collapsing, the banks are lending less. You don't get priced out of the market on the way down, a product is only worth what the market can or will pay for it. The worst off will be those that bought in the last three or four years, already in negative equity and being handed a six-figure hiding by interest rate rises. And the lower prices fall, the longer back that cutoff point stretches.

dotsman wrote: »

True, but seeing as renters are going to be renting for a very long time, they'll need all the help they can get!

What does this mean?

dotsman

SimpleSam06 wrote: »

That would be one of the major reasons prices are collapsing, the banks are lending less. You don't get priced out of the market on the way down, a product is only worth what the market can or will pay for it. The worst off will be those that bought in the last three or four years, already in negative equity and being handed a six-figure hiding by interest rate rises. And the lower prices fall, the longer back that cutoff point stretches.

Oh, you can easily get priced out of the market on the way down. That's what's happening now in many cases. There are a lot of people who, over the past year, have seen the amount they can borrow reduce much further than the price of houses have. Fact is, there is no typical FTB (ie who is heavily dependant on a high LTV mortgage) in a better position today than they were this time last year. In fact, many are worse off. The only people who can enjoy the reduced prices are those that are cash heavy, and only need a lower LTV mortgage.

SimpleSam06 wrote: »

What does this mean?

I thought that was pretty self explanatory. I am assuming that most people are renting now with the intention of one day owning their own home. To be able to do so, they are going to need one mother of a deposit (compared to the last few years), and having been a renter before I bought, I know just how hard it is to save for a deposit while forking over for ridiculous rent (for me, I'm actually paying less on my mortgage than I did on rent!). Therefore, they are likely to be renting for a very long time.

ewj1978

1:there'll be more ladies on the streets doing their thing for even less money..(competition sucks )

ewj1978

ewj1978 wrote: »

1:there'll be more ladies on the streets doing their thing for even less money..(competition to suck )

fixed it for yer...

ewj1978

cheers bud +1..

eoferrall

SimpleSam06 wrote: »

That would be one of the major reasons prices are collapsing, the banks are lending less.

What about the fact that people wont sell, it doesn't matter if "market prices" fall, people will not move as much and be more inclined to stay exactly were they are. Only people who HAVE to move for what every reason ultimately lose out. Yes people are paying hefty mortgages etc but they have a house and if they can afford the mortgage, then they are not that much worse off, unless they need to sell at bottom of price crash. So as i said only those who have to sell majorly lose out.

SimpleSam06

dotsman wrote: »

Oh, you can easily get priced out of the market on the way down. That's what's happening now in many cases. There are a lot of people who, over the past year, have seen the amount they can borrow reduce much further than the price of houses have.

Hahaha, ah yes. It doesn't work like that, sorry. Prices are falling to meet the amount people can pay for them, just the same way they rose to accommodate the loosened lending conditions on the way up. All an FTB needs to do is sit on their arse and they'll save six figures over the lifetime of a mortgage.

This fact is terribly upsetting to all the vested interests and specuvestors, but it doesn't change the fact that it is a fact.

dotsman wrote: »

In fact, many are worse off. The only people who can enjoy the reduced prices are those that are cash heavy, and only need a lower LTV mortgage.

Goodness gracious, you mean the banks have started to practise responsible lending, rather than the idiotic free for all they were indulging in over the last eight years? :eek:

dotsman wrote: »

I thought that was pretty self explanatory. I am assuming that most people are renting now with the intention of one day owning their own home. To be able to do so, they are going to need one mother of a deposit (compared to the last few years), and having been a renter before I bought, I know just how hard it is to save for a deposit while forking over for ridiculous rent (for me, I'm actually paying less on my mortgage than I did on rent!). Therefore, they are likely to be renting for a very long time.

Wrong again, I'm afraid. Even with the reduced prices, renting in many places is still less than the interest portion on a mortgage, which is just as "dead" as rent. So if someone can afford a reasonable mortgage, they can afford to save up for a few years to gather a decent deposit. This has the added advantage that prices are dropping constantly, so they will end up with a smaller mortgage over a lesser period of time, as I said, saving them six figures over the course of a mortgage.

Its not as self explanatory as some would like it to be.

SimpleSam06

eoferrall wrote: »

What about the fact that people wont sell, it doesn't matter if "market prices" fall, people will not move as much and be more inclined to stay exactly were they are.

With 40% of demand at the peak being investors on mostly IO mortgages, I'd say there are more than enough sellers under severe pressure to drive prices down generally. Many of these properties have to be sold, and sold they will ultimately be.

If you're thinking about renting instead to cover the mortgage, well lots of other people had the same idea, which is why rents are falling across the board, producing the sorry rental yields that currently exist, so it makes even more sense to rent for the moment.

eoferrall wrote: »

Only people who HAVE to move for what every reason ultimately lose out. Yes people are paying hefty mortgages etc but they have a house and if they can afford the mortgage, then they are not that much worse off, unless they need to sell at bottom of price crash. So as i said only those who have to sell majorly lose out.

Do you have any conception how much property was sold '01 to '06? There are around a quarter of a million empty properties in this country according to the CSO, almost a decade's supply, even if not one other house is built (and they are still building), the majority of which are likely "investment" properties.

The property forum is already seeing the first of no doubt many people looking for a way to cut their losses after they overextended themselves to get on the ladder, in unsaleable apartments in serious negative equity.

SimpleSam06

eoferrall wrote: »

What about the fact that people wont sell, it doesn't matter if "market prices" fall, people will not move as much and be more inclined to stay exactly were they are.

Also, just to back up my point, here are the stats for properties for sale and rent on Daft. Seeing any trends there?

Sorry lads, reality disagrees with your arguments.

dotsman

SimpleSam06 wrote: »

Hahaha, ah yes. It doesn't work like that, sorry. Prices are falling to meet the amount people can pay for them, just the same way they rose to accommodate the loosened lending conditions on the way up. All an FTB needs to do is sit on their arse and they'll save six figures over the lifetime of a mortgage.

This fact is terribly upsetting to all the vested interests and specuvestors, but it doesn't change the fact that it is a fact.


Goodness gracious, you mean the banks have started to practise responsible lending, rather than the idiotic free for all they were indulging in over the last eight years? :eek:

Wrong again, I'm afraid. Even with the reduced prices, renting in many places is still less than the interest portion on a mortgage, which is just as "dead" as rent. So if someone can afford a reasonable mortgage, they can afford to save up for a few years to gather a decent deposit. This has the added advantage that prices are dropping constantly, so they will end up with a smaller mortgage over a lesser period of time, as I said, saving them six figures over the course of a mortgage.

Its not as self explanatory as some would like it to be.

Let me guess - you're one of them from the property pin or other such websites.

I honestly don't know where to start. To be honest, from your post, it seems that a reasonable debate would prove impossible. If you do want to start a separate thread, go ahead, because this thread will go seriously off topic.

Back on topic. An upside to this downturn? Perhaps all those who wished for doom will come to realise their mistake.

SimpleSam06

dotsman wrote: »

Let me guess - you're one of them from the property pin or other such websites.

Nope, I keep away from there because you have too many singing from the same hymnsheet. Dissent is healthy, not to mention entertaining.

dotsman wrote: »

I honestly don't know where to start. To be honest, from your post, it seems that a reasonable debate would prove impossible. If you do want to start a separate thread, go ahead, because this thread will go seriously off topic.

Well a couple of points, if you don't want to deal with the accurate points I have raised, you forfeit the discussion, and secondly, this is AH. I can't remember the last time an offtopic objection was raised.

dotsman wrote: »

Back on topic. An upside to this downturn? Perhaps all those who wished for doom will come to realise their mistake.

And perhaps all those who caused the problem by their greed and stupidity will be punished?

SimpleSam06

SimpleSam06 wrote: »

And perhaps all those who caused the problem by their greed and stupidity will be punished?

The banks are certainly getting a caning at the moment, but they have our savings down the back of their trousers, and keeping them to bail out their cohorts in the construction industry.

SimpleSam06

Deleted User wrote: »

The banks are certainly getting a caning at the moment, but they have our savings down the back of their trousers, and keeping them to bail out their cohorts in the construction industry.

Yes, I think up to €22,000 is covered by the government in any one account, so it might be an idea to spread your money around, although I would say the possiblity of one of the big ones tanking is fairly remote.

The news from the international markets is frankly terrifying at the moment, you have the US government seizing control of Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac, the two companies responsible for over five trillion in mortgage debt, with almost ten percent of mortgage holders behind or in default stateside, along with record lows on the stock markets, and scary words like stagflation (thats when the economy starts turning into a third world economy) being muttered behind closed doors. The pound sterling is collapsing and analysts are reporting "ugly data" coming down the wires. Even the Chinese are looking at a kicking, which might only be expected after a thirty year boom, but they couldn't have picked a worse time for it.

We live in interesting times.

ejmaztec

Give it a few years and the Africans will be buying our fair-trade butter.