Dollar predictions

spectre · 02-09-2008 9:36am #1

I'm heading to vegas soon and I've been watching the dollar move in the wrong direction for the past while (right direction for those of you with dollar bankrolls of course).

So, all you finance guys, where is it going short term and long term?

Killme00 · 02-09-2008 9:43am

spectre wrote: »

I'm heading to vegas soon and I've been watching the dollar move in the wrong direction for the past while (right direction for those of you with dollar bankrolls of course).

So, all you finance guys, where is it going short term and long term?

In the short term it doesnt matter when you buy because it wont have a material impact on you. In the long term, the feelgood factor of Obama getting elected should spur on the US economy before it drops off again when they realise he is clueless.

Its all cyclical but none of us are going to be changing the sums of money required to profit from it. If i had a few million going spare i might buy GBP in the short term and then arbitrage against dollar long term.

El Stuntman · 02-09-2008 9:52am

killme00 is right, unless you are bringing insanely large sums with you, it doesn't matter

long term, the USD is fcuked - its fiscal and current deficits are an enormous drag. I'm sticking with my prediction of seeing 1.80 within 2 years

Idu · 02-09-2008 9:59am

El Stuntman wrote: »

killme00 is right, unless you are bringing insanely large sums with you, it doesn't matter

long term, the USD is fcuked - its fiscal and current deficits are an enormous drag. I'm sticking with my prediction of seeing 1.80 within 2 years

Agreed - unless they pull out of Iraq in the next 6 months

cooker3 · 02-09-2008 10:05am

janets_on_clubs wrote: »

Agreed - unless they pull out of Iraq in the next 6 months

well that's not going to happen

El Stuntman · 02-09-2008 10:11am

janets_on_clubs wrote: »

Agreed - unless they pull out of Iraq in the next 6 months

Iraq doesn't help but fiscally it's only part of the problem; America is living way beyond its means. They need to 'do a Germany'.

Frazzled · 02-09-2008 10:11am

Sterling looks like it is going to nothing but fall in the coming months. What the US has been experiencing and flagging for the past 12 months is now hitting the UK hard. Growth has completely stopped in the UK, te housing market is fcuked, manufacturing is at a stand still. While inflationary worries are very much to the forem the UK will have no option but to cut interest rates over the next 4 quarters and that will weaken sterling further.

The US is weak but I strongly feel that relative to the UK, it is in a stronger position and this also applies to the rest of the world as this whole crisis spins out across the globe. I would expect to see the dollar approach 1.70 in the next 2 months (maybe shorter).

Incidentally I am going to start my McCain betting this week as I am convinced that he will be elected.

NOTE:

GBP remains firmly at the centre of the G10 FX market’s focus. Over the weekend Chancellor of the Exchequer Darling was quoted as saying that the UK economy faced the worst downturn for 60 years, further denting confidence in the UK and GBP. This week there is the MPC decision and a number of important data releases. At present about 1bp of cutting is priced in for the MPC on Thursday. While we don’t expect a rate change, that seems surprisingly little and is quite likely to increase at some point over the intervening period. During that time the manufacturing (today) and services PMIs (Weds) are released. Both matter and both have the potential to add to GBP weakness and increase the probability of a cut. Our economists both to come in a little weaker than consensus: man: 43.8 (cons: 44.0); services: 46.9 (47.0). It is difficult to see an improvement in sentiment in the UK in the very near term and there are large risks to the downside. We would continue to recommend being short GBP, at least until the MPC decision.

BigCityBanker · 02-09-2008 10:13am

Frazzled wrote: »

Incidentally I am going to start my McCain betting this week as I am convinced that he will be elected.

dont rush :rolleyes:

El Stuntman · 02-09-2008 10:20am

BigCityBanker wrote: »

dont rush :rolleyes:

I like his VP's style though

, her family seems like the Osbornes on crack and Jebus

Frazzled · 02-09-2008 10:21am

Àgreed as a few months ago was the best time to be backing him.

I had small position on him when Obama mania was in full flow and have "greened it" since then, but it irks me that I played for such small amounts.

If we can see some Obama resurgence, I will play to heavier levels on McCain again,

Killme00 · 02-09-2008 10:25am

El Stuntman wrote: »

I like his VP's style though , her family seems like the Osbornes on crack and Jebus

Was her daughter knocked up by a black guy on crack?

zuutroy · 02-09-2008 10:32am

So would I be better off leaving about 15 buyins online and taking the rest out and storing it in eurons? Also...wtf is the best thing to do with it?

El Stuntman · 02-09-2008 10:33am

Killme00 wrote: »

Was her daughter knocked up by a black guy on crack?

let's say she was

Killme00 · 02-09-2008 10:35am

zuutroy wrote: »

So would I be better off leaving about 15 buyins online and taking the rest out and storing it in eurons? Also...wtf is the best thing to do with it?

Whatever you do, dont buy shares in Elan!

Stick it in a deposit account somewhere witha decent interest rate and try to forget about it for a few years

zuutroy · 02-09-2008 10:43am

Killme00 wrote: »

Whatever you do, dont buy shares in Elan!

Stick it in a deposit account somewhere witha decent interest rate and try to forget about it until your next 20 buyin downswing

FYP.

El Stuntman · 02-09-2008 10:43am

Killme00 wrote: »

Whatever you do, dont buy shares in Elan!

Stick it in a deposit account somewhere witha decent interest rate and try to forget about it for a few years

this advice is ridiculous

move up levels

Killme00 · 02-09-2008 10:49am

El Stuntman wrote: »

this advice is ridiculous

move up levels

Invest in a startup oil explorationation company or even a startup pharmaceutical company

Its more fun than Roullette, russian roullette that is.

El Stuntman · 02-09-2008 11:06am

Killme00 wrote: »

Invest in a green energy company or else in Zimbabwe

I've done both, it's more fun than doing the lotto

flushje · 02-09-2008 4:29pm

Vegas, 5.5k in 9 days and i didnt even gamble ! :rolleyes:

bohsman · 02-09-2008 4:44pm

El Stuntman wrote: »

killme00 is right, unless you are bringing insanely large sums with you, it doesn't matter

long term, the USD is fcuked - its fiscal and current deficits are an enormous drag. I'm sticking with my prediction of seeing 1.80 within 2 years

Was that prediction not to hit 2.0 within 2 years?

Hitchhiker's Guide to... · 02-09-2008 6:00pm

Long-term - the US may be fecked, but Europe is more fecked due to aging demographics. The US has all the (relatively young) hispanics, while the EU is trying its best to keep out the one large young demographic in Europe; Turkey.

I wouldn't be in any way confident of the US dollar weakening against the euro in the long-term. Both currencies will probably weaken, but really hard to imagine the dollar weakening more than the euro. [hence the dollar would actually strengthen relative to the euro]

Mid-term and short-term no-one has a clue. Probably best to just assume the current trend will continue.

flushje wrote: »

Vegas, 5.5k in 9 days and i didnt even gamble ! :rolleyes:

Hitchhiker's Guide to... · 02-09-2008 6:07pm

Frazzled wrote: »

Àgreed as a few months ago was the best time to be backing him.

I had small position on him when Obama mania was in full flow and have "greened it" since then, but it irks me that I played for such small amounts.

If we can see some Obama resurgence, I will play to heavier levels on McCain again,

Definitely agree re McCain. Don't think he will necessarily win, but there are ridiculous odds on McCain on both betfair and intrade. Bound to shorten as we approach November. Especially like the intrade offers at the moment: http://www.intrade.com/

Goodluck2me · 02-09-2008 8:05pm

Roundtower2 wrote: »

Long-term - the US may be fecked, but Europe is more fecked due to aging demographics. The US has all the (relatively young) hispanics, while the EU is trying its best to keep out the one large young demographic in Europe; Turkey.

I wouldn't be in any way confident of the US dollar weakening against the euro in the long-term. Both currencies will probably weaken, but really hard to imagine the dollar weakening more than the euro. [hence the dollar would actually strengthen relative to the euro]

Mid-term and short-term no-one has a clue. Probably best to just assume the current trend will continue.

If Im honest I doubt the age of our countries is really going to anything other than an "also ran" problem, it certainly won't be enough of a cause to create a change in $/€ exchange rates.
the underlying fundamentals of the Eurozone is in much better shape that America, who will need more than the quick fix they seem so desperate to find. EU has a diversity of cultures, from the safeguarded and measured approach of the Germans to the outlandish Italians, albeit not so capable.
America will always be run by people with vested interests, sure Bush is an oil man and has no reason to try to save the price of it from falling.

America needs to save collectively, and as a country with high net immigration, money will always be spent on foreign products, like Irish buying Barrys tea or w/e, and from the hispanic workers sending money home, they face an uphill battle.

These are much more relevant fundamentals than that of average age, as people are working longer and their experience trains those below them, giving us a skilled workforce for years to come.

Cliff notes - Euro < dollar.

Killme00 · 03-09-2008 8:26am

Roundtower2 wrote: »

Long-term - the US may be fecked, but Europe is more fecked due to aging demographics. The US has all the (relatively young) hispanics, while the EU is trying its best to keep out the one large young demographic in Europe; Turkey.

I wouldn't be in any way confident of the US dollar weakening against the euro in the long-term. Both currencies will probably weaken, but really hard to imagine the dollar weakening more than the euro. [hence the dollar would actually strengthen relative to the euro]

Mid-term and short-term no-one has a clue. Probably best to just assume the current trend will continue.

Population demographics is an interesting take but dont forget the baby boom in Ireland and i have persoanlly seen a whole lot of ladies with babies in Spain (Valencia), France (Lyon) and Germany (Berlin). All of the hotties had totties which was very disappointing.

Also in terms of supporting our economy, are their any bi-tches out there who want to go halves on a bas-tard.

lee_arama · 03-09-2008 8:50am

Most of the new smallies in Cork are all of East European ethnicity. Their parents came in to work, saw everyone with prams, and obviously felt comfortable in settling down here permanently.

On a related note to this, isn't it a shame that the Erinville is being knocked down? Me and my daughter were born there. Hospitals are still scary places but there's still some sorrow at its passing.

The_Daddy_H · 03-09-2008 10:22am

Roundtower2 wrote: »

Definitely agree re McCain. Don't think he will necessarily win, but there are ridiculous odds on McCain on both betfair and intrade. Bound to shorten as we approach November. Especially like the intrade offers at the moment: http://www.intrade.com/

2:1 on betfair, fantastic odds.

El Stuntman · 03-09-2008 10:42am

bohsman wrote: »

Was that prediction not to hit 2.0 within 2 years?

I dunno, I'm going senile and can't remember what I said five minutes ago most of the time

ok, 2.0 then; it's a nice round number :pac:

El Stuntman · 03-09-2008 10:43am

Killme00 wrote: »

Also in terms of supporting our economy, are their any bi-tches out there who want to go halves on a bas-tard.

your smooth chat up lines may need a little finessing :eek:

I'll PM you some of the all-time classics that used to work wonders back in 1993

BigCityBanker · 03-09-2008 11:07am

El Stuntman wrote: »

your smooth chat up lines may need a little finessing :eek:

I'll PM you some of the all-time classics that used to work wonders back in 1993

"Does this smell like chloroform to you?"

[nicK] · 03-09-2008 11:19am

this is something that interests me very much as i (like a few people here) still have an option of transferring their $$ rolls into euro... (ipoker network)

when i was back in thailand a few mths ago the $/euro was 1.7+ and it was continously blowing up but i left my a/c in $ thinking it couldn't get much worse..

it's almost down to 1.4 now, and i'm lovin' it..
is this the time to transfer everything back to euros?

El Stuntman · 03-09-2008 11:30am

[nicK] wrote: »

this is something that interests me very much as i (like a few people here) still have an option of transferring their $$ rolls into euro... (ipoker network)

i know a few of my friends have transferred their rolls already, (when i was back in thailand the $/euro was 1.7+) and it was continously blowing up but i, like a few of the gostav residents reckonded it might be better to ride out the storm than to take emergy precedures..

it's almost down to 1.4 now, and i'm lovin' it..
is this the time to transfer everything back to euros and get back into the "hope that germany will reinvent the volkwagen and make everything better" or ride it out like those oh so few before us and hope america collapses against the dominance of the might that is the eu?

don't you live in the States now? why would you want to create currency risk for yourself?

hotspur · 03-09-2008 11:43am

And how are you playing on Ipoker if you are living in America (where are you in California btw?)

[nicK] · 03-09-2008 12:13pm

as if i'd be even attempt to play on a european network whilst travelling abroad..

i obviously play all my hands during the weeknd in ireland then fly back out to san diego for downtime during the week.. some people do have another word for it though.. (pm for direct access)

zuutroy · 03-09-2008 12:26pm

[nicK] wrote: »

jeez guys.. i'm obviously only joking with these american nuances..

as if i'd be even attempt to play on a european network whilst travelling abroad..

i obviously play all my hands during the weeknd in ireland then fly back out to san diego for downtime during the week.. some people do have another word for it thoug.. (pm for direct access)

Go to Ocean Beach and have a burger in Hodad's if you haven't already done so. The finest burger in the world!

Hitchhiker's Guide to... · 03-09-2008 12:41pm

Killme00 wrote: »

Population demographics is an interesting take but dont forget the baby boom in Ireland and i have persoanlly seen a whole lot of ladies with babies in Spain (Valencia), France (Lyon) and Germany (Berlin). All of the hotties had totties which was very disappointing.

The thing is - Ireland might be going from 4m to 6.5m over the next 42 years due to the baby boom, but Germany is falling from 82m to 74m due to the 'no-baby' boom there over the same time period (by 2050). Most of Europe, especially 'New Europe' and Italy are following Germany rather than Ireland.

From its current level, Europe's population is predicted to fall by 20m to 470m in 2050.

US population will increase by 135m to 439m in the same time period.

Killme00 · 03-09-2008 12:44pm

Roundtower2 wrote: »

US population will increase by 135m to 439m in the same time period.

Invest in property, they have to live somewhere!!! :pac::pac::pac:

[nicK] · 03-09-2008 12:48pm

zuutroy wrote: »

Go to Ocean Beach and have a burger in Hodad's if you haven't already done so. The finest burger in the world!

lol, it's pretty feckin' hillarious you should say that.. we're at ocean beach, 1 block from that exact spot and 2 blocks from the beach (we're right on that street).. during teh weekends i'm outisde grinding on the porch by the outside bbq 24/7 so call up and hit me with some advice anytime your around

..

we hit up pacific beach and mission beach last year but ocean beach is just soo much more laid back, way better atmosphere and with dare i say better waves... just getting settled in atm but it beats those other beachtowns i've stayed in over the last yr by miles..

zuutroy · 03-09-2008 1:05pm

[nicK] wrote: »

lol, it's pretty feckin' hillarious you should say that.. we're at ocean beach, 1 block from that exact spot and 2 blocks from the beach (we're right on that street).. during teh weekends i'm outisde grinding on the porch by the outside bbq 24/7 so call up and hit me with some advice anytime your around ..

So Jealous

Haven't been there in years unfortunately.

hotspur · 04-09-2008 12:00am

[nicK] wrote: »

lol, it's pretty feckin' hillarious you should say that.. we're at ocean beach, 1 block from that exact spot and 2 blocks from the beach (we're right on that street).. during teh weekends i'm outisde grinding on the porch by the outside bbq 24/7 so call up and hit me with some advice anytime your around ..

Ocean Beach is a great spot, I sometimes head over to Ocean Beach Comedy in Winstons on Friday nights, and I really like The Harp on Newport Ave. And as I type this I'm heading out to OB right after funnily enough.

cooker3 · 04-09-2008 12:55am

Roundtower2 wrote: »

The thing is - Ireland might be going from 4m to 6.5m over the next 42 years due to the baby boom, but Germany is falling from 82m to 74m due to the 'no-baby' boom there over the same time period (by 2050). Most of Europe, especially 'New Europe' and Italy are following Germany rather than Ireland.

From its current level, Europe's population is predicted to fall by 20m to 470m in 2050.

US population will increase by 135m to 439m in the same time period.

There is a baby boom in Ireland?

Goodluck2me · 04-09-2008 1:09am

cooker3 wrote: »

There is a baby boom in Ireland?

you need to get out more!

El Stuntman · 04-09-2008 7:50am

goodluck2me wrote: »

you need to get out more!

surely getting in more is the cause of this baby boom?

(gets coat, shuts door)

Goodluck2me · 04-09-2008 11:32am

El Stuntman wrote: »

surely getting in more is the cause of this baby boom?

(gets coat, shuts door)

/locks door/

focusing · 10-09-2008 5:33pm

On the subject of the US dollar; which sites allow you play and keep your account in Euro?

www.pokerheaven.com is the only one I've founds so far; any other suggestions?

funnyname · 10-09-2008 7:43pm

Party also allow you

herewegoagain · 10-09-2008 8:16pm

focusing wrote: »

On the subject of the US dollar; which sites allow you play and keep your account in Euro?

www.pokerheaven.com is the only one I've founds so far; any other suggestions?

Devilfish Poker and Betdaq poker would be the best option..They are both on the B2B network

funnyname · 24-10-2008 4:58pm

It'll be par with the Euro by the end of the year.

phantom_lord · 25-10-2008 1:21am

what's that based on?

Treehouse72 · 25-10-2008 2:40pm

The rise of the dollar is so fantastic for those of us with $ RB deals. I've seen my RB up 10% or 15% in recent weeks. Result.

I also think it means we are taking "more" money onto the tables each time we sit, although I'm not sure about that. Think so. Good for winning players if so.

funnyname · 25-10-2008 4:39pm

phantom_lord wrote: »

what's that based on?

Just a hunch, what positives are coming out of Europe at the moment, even Germany is taking a hammering.

pocketdooz · 25-10-2008 4:47pm

funnyname wrote: »

Just a hunch, what positives are coming out of Europe at the moment, even Germany is taking a hammering.

LOL - go on . . .

Dollar predictions

Comments