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August Competition, Forecast and Analysis
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Just to put ye wide about the stats* for the current year up to and including July.
Firstly, Anomaly tread for the period:
July 08 proved to be another "near normal" month temperature wise, the 4th such this year, although anomaly still up on June, with a rising trend. Whether this current anomalous warmth will continue, or even rise through August remains to be seen.
At a glance overview of the deviational warmth of the currunt year in relation to the 61-90 and 2007 means for the same period:
Still not as warm as the same period last year, but not far off. A couple of warmer than average months ahead could put the current year into the record books.
Rainfall wise, the Jan-July totals for the current year indicates that 2008 is not only wetter than the expected 61-90 norm for the same period, but also wetter than the infamously wet Jan-July of 2007:
Station rainfall totals for the Jan-July period of 2008:
Southwest is wettest, with the western half of Ireland in general wetter than the east, as per the norm.
Mean sea level pressure for the year still running below average, but with a very slight rising trend:
Figures up 1st August 08 (00hrs) show that pressure values are running at 1.8 mb below normal. Jan-July 58-88 mean totals up at 1013.4 mb, as compared to the Jan-July 08 mean of 1011.6 mb.
I wonder how August will fair out.
*All data based on the 10 main Met Eireann stations, except MSLP figures, which are based on values from Malin head, Belmullet, Casement, Birr and Roaches Point.0 -
Cheers for the time and effort you put in Pat.
Now there is something i'm interested in.
Jan- July I recorded 479mm
While the AP is 452.2mm
Casement 471mm
Usually between the AP and I the Rainfall is + or - in a few mm., not an inch.
Obviously the distribution of showers or maybe the end FEB into MAR event that dumped over 2" here in 24hrs, maybe not as heavy up in the AP.
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Nacho. Mayo's Finest wrote:it seems the Eighties was the time to be around if you were a weather enthusiast.
The August of 86 was no exception to this great decade of weather, and was one of the colder month's of the this exceptionally cold year. The mean temperature finished of way below normal by over 2.0c at many stations, and as much as 2.7c at Birr, Co Offaly.
Chart of Overall Mean for this tempestuous month:
Some incredible low daily minimas recorded throughout the month of August 86. Mean finished off at 12.4c, which is over 2.0c below the 61-90 average. The west saw both the warmest and coldest mean temperatures this month, warmest at Shannon (13.4c) and coolest at Claremorris (11.6c) In absolute terms, Belmullet recorded the highest temperature of the month (21.0c) while Birr came in the lowest (2.0c), followed closely by Mullingar's 2.1c.
Despite the ups and down of the sea level pressures of this month, the mean still finish just below the norm:
Weatherwise, August 1986 is famous for the "Hurricane Charley" event which occurred late in the month. What is not mentioned so often however, is that an equally strong storm system struck the Southwest of Ireland on the 5th. Here are some extracts from the Meteorological Service of Ireland's overview of this deadly month.
"The summer of '86 was a real washout. June was thundery. July was the dullest in over 30 years and August brought a succession of storms that caused flooding in many areas." (and we haven't even started yet
)
"August made its unpleasant intentions known right from the start. On Friday the 1st, gales and heavy rain swept the country. Rainfall amounts for the day ranged from 6mm to 32mm with the south and west worst hit. Gale gusts were reported from all stations, including one gust of 62 knots measured at Malin Head, the strongest gust of the month.
"On the morning of Tuesday the 5th, a vigorous depression approached from the southwest and moved northeastwards, preceded by active rainbelts.
"The heaviest rain from this weather system was in the very moist air from lower latitudes, ahead of the depression centre. Again, the south was worst affected. The rain began in earnest in Cahirciveen, Co Kerry, around noon and continued without respite till after nidnight. There was 7 consecutive hours of continuous heavy rain (heavy rain is defined as rain falling at a rate of 6mm an hour or more). A total of 85.6mm fell there that day, which is not far short of the station's monthly total. 56mm of that total fell in the 6 hours between 1 o' clock and 7 o' clock.
"Kerry and Cork were the hardest hit. An underground river overflowed in Tralee and flooded part of the town. In Bantry, the town centre was under 3 feet of water:
Chart of approaching system:
The month became calmer after the 7th, for a time, but another system was brewing out in the Atlantic on the 15th. Met Eireann continues the story:
"Hurricane Charley first appeared as a tropical storm off the South Carolina coast on Friday 15th August. It tracked north-northeast along the American coast. Charley's strenght began to decline during the evening of the 18th as it swung out into the Atlantic heading eastwards. At 1600hrs GMT, all coastal hurricane warnings were discontinued. It passed south of Nova Scotia on the 19th giving 116mm of rain in places and gusts of over 55 knots.
"By late 22nd, what was left of Charley was in Mid Atlantic, having weakened further. However, the following day, the 23rd of August, rapid deepening began of occur at the occlusion point and by midday of the 24th this had developed into a seperate depression:
"This depression moved rapidly towards Ireland. By midnight its centre was 300 miles southwest of Kerry and deepening.
"About noon the next day, the centre of the low was just south of the Cork coast:
"..it was raining steadily all over the country at this stage with the notable exception of Malin Head. By early evening, Dublin and other eastern areas were experiencing continuous heavy rain and gale force winds blowing in from the Irish Sea.
"The heaviest rain fell on the mountains south of Dublin. At Kippure, which is 750 metres high, an estimatied 280mm fell (Mountain stations are not reprentative of the conditions most people experience so they are not considered in determining records). However, 200mm fell in the lowland station of Kilcoole, south of Greystones. 70 to 100mm of rain fell over large parts of Dublin and Wicklow, with similar amounts recorded in parts of Wexford and the south coast.
"New rainfall records were established and again the heavy rain caused flooding. Coincidentally, Bray suffered the same sort of flooding on the same date in 1905, and in the Phoenix Park, precisely the same amount of rain-85.1mm- was recorded on the 25th of August in both years (1905/1986)."
Official rainfall totals for the month of August 1986 from a selection of stations:
Quick glance at how Europe faired out temp wise this month:
Notably warm down south; notably cold further north. Atlantic still colder than normal, which typifies the year of 1986.
All charts, temperature/ pressure / rainfall stats and bold text courtasy of Met Eireann.
European Chart courtasy of the NOAA.
:cool:0 -
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Rolling 30 day temp graph.
Sunshine and rainfall graph not ready yet.
The last week has been quite constant
Very interesting MM. It is amazing (I think) how the mean temperture is remaining above average on the strength of warmer nights rather than on the strength of any astonishing warmth during the day.0 -
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Up to midnight 11th:
Overall Mean at 15.5c, which is 1.0c above normal. Coolest in the West & North.
Overall Rainfall at 80.8mm, which is 93.3% of the 61-90 average, and 323% of the August 1st to 11th expected. Wettest in a belt from the mid-west through to the east.
Overall sea level pressure remains much below normal at 1005.0 mb, which is 10.2 mb below the August 1st-11th average of 1015.2 mb. Monthly trend is falling more sharply, which may indicate further unsettled spells for a whileen yet. 0 -
Deep Easterly wrote: »Up to midnight 11th:
Overall Mean at 15.5c, which is 1.0c above normal. Coolest in the West & North.Deep Easterly wrote: »The 61-90 Overall Mean for August totals up at 14.6c
I assumed 14.6c was the average monthly mean temperature for August between 1961 -900 -
nacho libre wrote: »I assumed 14.6c was the average monthly mean temperature for August between 1961 -90
It is when Rosslare is included, which I stupidly included in the first valuation. Without this station, the mean is still 14.52c, which is only 0.03c away from being 14.6c. Also, when deviational values are rounded they sometimes conflict with the actual total. But tweedle dee, tweedle doo. Sorry about this Nacho.
Stats up to midinight 13th:
Overall Mean: 15.2c, which is 0.7c above normal.
Overall Mean Rainfall: 103.2mm, which 119.1% of the June 61-90 mean.
Notable is the Overall Sea Level Pressure for the month of August:
Daily and monthly trend remaining much below normal, and while there was a slight rise yesterday, it is a rise that did not surpass even the unusually low monthly mean that this August has clocked up so far. Up to midnight last, the mean SLP for Ireland stands at 1003.2 mb, which is over 10mb below what is expected.0 -
Deep Easterly wrote: »It is when Rosslare is included, which I stupidly included in the first valuation. Without this station, the mean is still 14.52c, which is only 0.03c away from being 14.6c. Also, when deviational values are rounded they sometimes conflict with the actual total. But tweedle dee, tweedle doo. Sorry about this Nacho.
Stats up to midinight 13th:
Overall Mean: 15.2c, which is 0.7c above normal.
Overall Mean Rainfall: 103.2mm, which 119.1% of the June 61-90 mean.
Notable is the Overall Sea Level Pressure for the month of August:
Daily and monthly trend remaining much below normal, and while there was a slight rise yesterday, it is a rise that did not surpass even the unusually low monthly mean that this August has clocked up so far. Up to midnight last, the mean SLP for Ireland stands at 1003.2 mb, which is over 10mb below what is expected.
the mean temp would be below normal but for the consistenly high nighttime temperature:mad:
good work as always paddy10 -
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