How can Met Éireann get a weather forecast so WRONG ?

This is not a rant.
But last nights RTÉ forecast after the 9 o clock news couldn't have been more wrong even within 6 hours of it being broadcast?

Have a look at it,it's available at the end of this page down at the bottom-the relevant one from last night(wenesday) will be there untill about 930pm this evening(thursday).

It's been raining in much of the East practically all day and a good part of the night...

Sunny spells and showers spreading over from the west?? Temps of 15-19c??

Dublin airport like here due to the rain is at 11c in the middle of the afternoon.

This wouldn't be the first time in recent weeks that their forecasts have been uber inaccurate.

Snowbie

In all fairness with you BB, i agree that they have been very inaccuarate this last month.
We had a forecaster ranting up storms in the east from 2 weeks ago that never materialised.
We had another doing the same last week again for the east with storms and zip.Now both forecasts where for within the following 12hrs.

In summer i look out for storms and study all available data that i have, but the above mentioning storms on particular days when i looked at data available got me head scratching. I thought they knew something i missed.

Although i think the above mentioned are good forecasters, they have to acknowledge two collosal mistakes they made in forecasting storms for the east when there was never a chance one would break out here.

As for today, never mentioned continuous rain for the east. It has been a strange one over the last month from them.

Mothman

BB, i'm aware you've raised this I think at least 3 times during past week or 2.

One important aspect is that have others got it right? ie BBC/Uk met office.

This is an east west split and the forecasting of the weather coming from east has been poor at times recently.

Not the first time or last time a forecast has been woefully wrong.

I remember an August bank holiday weekend mnay years ago (no idea what year) that was a disasterous washout after sun splitting stones forecast a few hours earlier.
Plenty of hay was knocked and delaying of grain harvest as a result of fine weather forecast. Most of this hay countrywide was lost.

ch750536

Most of this year I have ignored the forecasts, found it to be much better to come here, get opinion, look at some charts, then tell the wife it will be 27c weds next week.

Yes MM,it's mainly the weather from the East that I've noticed them getting wrong.
Recently in the long Easterly spell they were reluctant(though sometimes did) to mention the probability that convective showers over wales would traverse the Irish sea overnight and survive.

It's not just Gerry Murphy's from last night-I can recall for example the Eagle(during the Easterly) standing in front of a radar image going on about showers in the west and dry in the East.
I felt like I was in pantomine and felt like shouting "It's BEHIND YOU" because there was a pretty big welsh import just flirting with the wexford and south wicklow coast at the time and it was clearly visible ON the radar he showed-yet he gave it no mention.It got a rain rate of 27mm/hr here.There were others in what was supposed to be a dry night in the east.

If I had of gone with his forecast and not had the knowledge that we here have and relied on the forecasts of the time I'd have mowed down silage.
The forecasts delivered at the time were chopping and changing within 12 hours ie the one the night before being different to the one in the morning once the MET had noticed in the morning that well rain they hadn't forecast was falling.

Now what use is that?

I'll take your point regarding the UKMO but it's hard to tell as they don't specefically forecast for the Republic and it's not their forecasts I was looking at.
You see for ordinary punters (not us lot) when they see a forecast at 9pm,they expect it to be fairly right for the next day.
On another occasion in the last few weeks I informed a silage contractor not to mow because there was rain on the way-His reply was "but I thought it was to be fine".
I said no they've changed it from last night...
He said "you're joking-I saw it last night".
He then rang the recorded forecast which was the new one for the following morning and there it was-the fine forecast was replaced with rain and all changed in less than 12 hours.

Mobhi1

Even now on http://www.met.ie/forecasts/# the forecast issued at 11:54 is not all that accurate, at least not the graphic where it's showing the East coast as just cloudy but with temperatures of 18! (The regional one updated at 13:00 is more like it - for Dublin: Cloudy with showery outbreaks of rain; relatively cool.)

Supercell

Well i've had a whopping 0.6mm rain here..showers were forecast, been raining on and off..not really that far off tbh.

I'd have to disagree with you supercell.

Have you reached the forecasted temp of 15-19c?
No because you have been under a weather front that wasn't supposed going on last nights forecast to shove back west.

4.6mm here not including a few hours of rain when I had no reception from the aws.

Mobhi1

I seem to remember from a couple of nights back that the forecast was for that front to stall over the East for a time but the forecast had changed by yesterday for it to move more quickly.

Deep Easterly

Jeez BB, give them a break!! Remember that what they give is a forecast, not a promise!! They did mention the possibility last night on the radio that some rain could return over the east today. I would understand if you were being flooded out of it with unforecast torrential rain. But light rain!! This is Ireland BB, always expect the worst, and you won't be disappointed!!

Danno

I disagree with you Paddy, alot of crops are dependant on correct forecasts. I don't want to be paying 10% extra for food because yields were underachieved due to poor forecasting. God knows the price of tuc in the shops is extortionate at the moment.

Deep Easterly

Well whether the forecast was wrong or right, it was going to rain anyway. I just can't see the big deal over a drop of rain!! I don't think BB would survive very long up here to be honest..;)

As I said earlier this is Ireland, and as my gran says "the rain is never too far away"!!

The forecast on the nine o clock news yesterday incidently was 100% accurate for here today. Sunshine and showers. Funny how one forecast can be 100% right and 100% wrong at the same time.

Deep Easterly

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Well whether the forecast was wrong or right, it was going to rain anyway. I just can't see the big deal over a drop of rain!! I don't think BB would survive very long up here to be honest..;)

Would you say the same for a storm if boats went out to sea?
Rain is crucial in farming and to be quite frank I know many farmers who feel very let down with the terrible at times forecasting in the last few weeks.

As I said earlier this is Ireland, and as my gran says "the rain is never too far away"!!

Fine but thats no good when you depend on a reliable forecast-this isn't the 1920's anymore.

The forecast on the nine o clock news yesterday incidently was 100% accurate for here today. Sunshine and showers. Funny how one forecast can be 100% right and 100% wrong at the same time.

I'm sure it was but for more than half the population of the country it was 100% wrong.
They couldn't even get it right in the afternoon as to when the rain was going to clear.They said it was going to clear during the late evening and night -when in fact it cleared at about 6pm.

In my book,I'd be giving a very low score in terms of quality control for recent forecasts.

Mothman

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Well whether the forecast was wrong or right, it was going to rain anyway. I just can't see the big deal over a drop of rain!!

It is not the fact that it rained, its the fact that it was forecast that there wouldn't be. If the forecast doesn't matter then why have it? Farming is very weather dependent and DO make vital decisions based on the forecast. Getting a days rain on cut silage can cost 1,000s of euro, which would be saved by leaving it a day.

BB has been posting here for many years, and in my time here, I don't remember BB raising the issue about bad forecasts, and in fact has defended it many times.

I want to get back to point I raised earlier and whether Met Eireann differed to other forecasts. So while UK met office don't cover Ireland, did they forecast this front to migrate westwards or not?

Deep Easterly

Deleted User wrote: »

Would you say the same for a storm if boats went out to sea?
Rain is crucial in farming and to be quite frank I know many farmers who feel very let down with the terrible at times forecasting in the last few weeks.
Fine but thats no good when you depend on a reliable forecast-this isn't the 1920's anymore.
I'm sure it was but for more than half the population of the country it was 100% wrong.
They couldn't even get it right in the afternoon as to when the rain was going to clear.They said it was going to clear during the late evening and night -when in fact it cleared at about 6pm.

In my book,I'd be giving a very low score in terms of quality control for recent forecasts.

Yes, rain is crucial to farming. I don't know much about farming, but I do know they need rain to grow as well as sun. If you don't like the rain BB, why don't you move to the Sahara or something, Ireland is not the place to be for absolute dryness.

As for your "More than half the population of the country it was 100% wrong", quote, I agree, but good lord it wasn't exactly a life threatning flood or anything. I remember a couple of weeks ago when a certain forecaster on RTE said there might be a shower or two in western areas later, then big storms hit just a few miles south of here. Barely even got acknowledged, simply because they happened here, and not where "more than half the population live". Like it or not, people live on this side of the island aswell..;) The forecast was still 100% right as far as I am concerned.. and if it wasn't (as it sometimes isn't), I wouldn't have got so crabbed about it. Have a beer BB, and get over it.

Mothman

We're going in circles here.
Does it help if we acknowledge that the forecast was correct for the west. I will gladly do that.
BB isn't on about one single forecast. Its happened on a number of occassions during recent weeks that for here in east it has been way out. This to me is unusual. BB is not looking for continuous dry weather, just a forecast of when it will be dry or wet.

I think I'll ignore Deep Easterlys last post MM,as it's just mostly ridiculous and superflous to either the point of the thread or the comments I was making.

secman

I would have an interest in weather , but not to the same extend of many of the posters here. However i was just talking about the same thing to my OH on tuesday , it appeared to me that the recent forecasts, especially during the period of the Easterlies were way out. Just my tuppence worth !


Secman

Deep Easterly

Deleted User wrote: »

I think I'll ignore Deep Easterlys last post MM,as it's just mostly ridiculous and superflous to either the point of the thread or the comments I was making.

T'was nither ridiculous or superflous, but thanks for the insult. Thought you were a better quality of person than that.

ch750536

Deep Easterly wrote: »

T'was nither ridiculous or superflous, but thanks for the insult. Thought you were a better quality of person than that.

I think its possibly down to the use of '!!' in your post and nothing more. If you take those out the post seems a lot more friendly.

Easy to misread body language on a forum.

Deep Easterly

Deep Easterly wrote: »

T'was nither ridiculous or superflous, but thanks for the insult. Thought you were a better quality of person than that.

Telling a farmer that is wondering about the accuracy of a weather forecast that they should move to the Sahara desert isn't ridiculous?

Define ridiculous.

You talking about "yerrah it will always rain" in a thread about the accuracy of forecasting isn't superflous?

Define superflous.

Taking legitimate criticism for what was in the main a ridiculous post as an insult?

Define Insult.

I do not criticise the Met office very often either,I'm regularally here defending them.
I just opened a discussion on particular events lately for a discussion on what may have gone wrong and perhaps to discuss the quality control of forecasts in there.

nacho libre

I recall countless times where the Irish weather forecast got it badly wrong for this part of the country. It seems to me the BBC/English weather forecast is usually far more reliable.

Supercell

I guess that givn the fact that westerly tracking systems are comparatively rare (though not last couple of years for some reason) its to be expected.
Put it this way, if it was January we would have had a surprise snowfall and Weathercheck would be talking about putting rulers in his front lawn to measure the snow , and there would be joy and jubilation all round (well in the east anyhow).

Deep Easterly

Deleted User wrote: »

Telling a farmer that is wondering about the accuracy of a weather forecast that they should move to the Sahara desert isn't ridiculous?

Define ridiculous.

You talking about "yerrah it will always rain" in a thread about the accuracy of forecasting isn't superflous?

Define superflous.

Taking legitimate criticism for what was in the main a ridiculous post as an insult?

Define Insult.

I do not criticise the Met office very often either,I'm regularally here defending them.
I just opened a discussion on particular events lately for a discussion on what may have gone wrong and perhaps to discuss the quality control of forecasts in there.

I define ridiculous the fact that you open a thread critising met eireann for not getting the correct positioning of a band a drizzle right. Like i said, they do nothing more than a forecast. A forecast is not a promise, I don't think you see the difference. And yes, my grans claim that "the rain is never far away" proved right in your case, did it not? I define insulting the fact that you think you are talking to someone who is a bit stupid... keep your insulting statements coming BB, and I will prove to you the contrary.

Deep Easterly

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I define ridiculous the fact that you open a thread critising met eireann for not getting the correct positioning of a band a drizzle right.

It wasn't a band of drizzle.It was green and yellow on the radar and indeed I had 4.8mm + rainfall from it.

Like i said, they do nothing more than a forecast. A forecast is not a promise, I don't think you see the difference.

Clearly it is not a promise but it's accuracy in recent weeks is what I am calling into question.

And yes, my grans claim that "the rain is never far away" proved right in your case, did it not?

It's irelevant to the discussion on the inaccuracy trend in recent forecasts.

I define insulting the fact that you think you are talking to someone who is a bit stupid... keep your insulting statements coming BB, and I will prove to you the contrary.

Thats in your own mind then.
Nowhere did I accuse you of being stupid.
I quite rightly fobbed off a post where I was being misinterpreted as giving out about the weather as opposed to what I was actually doing ie querying the accuracy of forecasting...I was quite rightly fobbing off your post about me moving to the Sahara as ridiculous in the context of the thread.

Snowbie

I have posted a good few times throughout this forum that a forecast for the next 24hrs are only 73% accurate, unfortunately for some it has fallen into the latter 27% sometimes within a 24hr peroid. This is not uncommon.

My comment in #2 outlines the last month and not the Met entirely over the years as i think it is gospel to believe the above percentage(unless a blocking high is sitting on us we can be assured of a typical condition unlikely to change much) otherwise the following day is nowhere to being near 100% accurate.

It's obvious to say, the weather affects each and everyone of us from time to time in different ways,whether your an entusiast, farmer or an ordinary joe soap who has no interest, a bad forecast doesn't help much though(for sun,wind or rain) but forecasting is a tough job and is yet to be fully understood. This will not change in the near future.

In the end it was the scandi high yesterday that nudged the front over the north sea and over Wales to drift back west. GFS would have picked up on this but at short notice.A nowcast type event.

Deep Easterly and BB, there is no problem in discussing the topic but when it turns to a slagging match or gets out of hand this thread will be locked.
Your both valued at contributing well to this forum in genaral, lets keep it that way and any personal issues to PM if you must

Deep Easterly

Deleted User wrote: »

I was quite rightly fobbing off your post about me moving to the Sahara as ridiculous in the context of the thread.

:rolleyes:

Danno

Well said there Snowbie. I think the crux of this thread is based upon two things:

1) The general public assumption that... "this is Ireland and it rains all the time, sure what is all the fuss about another sup of rain?"

Rain affects crops and if not forecast corerectly can have huge implications for supplies and price further down the line, which we ALL pay for.

2) East - West divide. Forecasts by the Met for the west of Ireland are generally appaling and they're more used to it there.

With Paddy being from the west, he probably finds it amusing that someone would complain about the forecasts of late.

Deep Easterly

Danno wrote: »

Well said there Snowbie. I think the crux of this thread is based upon two things:

1) The general public assumption that... "this is Ireland and it rains all the time, sure what is all the fuss about another sup of rain?"

Rain affects crops and if not forecast corerectly can have huge implications for supplies and price further down the line, which we ALL pay for.

2) East - West divide. Forecasts by the Met for the west of Ireland are generally appaling and they're more used to it there.

With Paddy being from the west, he probably finds it amusing that someone would complain about the forecasts of late.

A good sum up Danno, just a clash of cultures I suppose. I am a townie while BB is good 'n' country. Guess it's the old war. Still, hope to see the southeast soon. Just hope it dosen't rain....:D

Deep Easterly

Deep Easterly wrote: »

:rolleyes:

Yay \o/

The old smileys are back!

kerry1960

Deleted User wrote: »

Telling a farmer that is wondering about the accuracy of a weather forecast that they should move to the Sahara desert isn't ridiculous?

Define ridiculous.

You talking about "yerrah it will always rain" in a thread about the accuracy of forecasting isn't superflous?

Define superflous.

Taking legitimate criticism for what was in the main a ridiculous post as an insult?

Define Insult.

I do not criticise the Met office very often either,I'm regularally here defending them.
I just opened a discussion on particular events lately for a discussion on what may have gone wrong and perhaps to discuss the quality control of forecasts in there.

count to 10 and inhale deeply ,
talk about over reacting ,
nobody died did they ?
get a life