The downturn

darkman2

For all the pompous gits who were spouting out crap like 'I wish the Celtic Tiger never happened'..........well your going to change your tune now because things are becoming harder for everyone - although nothing like the 80's its gonna get rough and only the strongest survive in weak times. The thing is though - you have to ask yourselves the question - can you survive a recession? My opinion is most in this country cannot and a harsh reality check is coming. Strangely im in favour of a slight recession to teach the young that life is not milk and honey - however what if its not a 'slight recession' coming and something far more serious? How many people on this forum condemning the Celtic Tiger will be homeless soon enough? Ive got an opinion that alot of people are going to fall on hard times yet I dont think thats a bad thing. There has been far too much complacency and the hens are just starting to come home to roost.

Rb

Yeah I really hope it shows those f*cking CT begrudgers a thing or two tbh.

I'll be emigrating though but I think anyone who voted Fianna Fail the past few years should be barred from leaving the country, same with anyone who votes yes to the Lisbon Treaty. That'd learn 'em.

Karoma

What age are you, OP?

Sangre

hurrah for bankruptcy departments in law firms!

mikemac

darkman2 wrote: »

The thing is though - you have to ask yourselves the question - can you survive a recession? My opinion is most in this country cannot and a harsh reality check is coming.

No probs, I'm in an multi-national and not a chance I'll be let go. Hope this post doesn't come back to haunt but it's international banking so it doesn't matter if Ireland goes down the tubes. If Swizerland does I'm fcuked :eek:
Ah no, I've 8 months salary saved in Rabobank.

darkman2 wrote: »

Strangely im in favour of a slight recession to teach the young that life is not milk and honey - however what if its not a 'slight recession' coming and something far more serious? How many people on this forum condemning the Celtic Tiger will be homeless soon enough? Ive got an opinion that alot of people are going to fall on hard times yet I dont think thats a bad thing. There has been far too much complacency and the hens are just starting to come home to roost.

Very arrogant statement! Let me tell you my point of view.
I worked hard through college and was the first member of my family ever to go to college. Worked damn hard at weekends after 3 and a half hours round trip on Bus Eireann.
Now I'm on a damn good salary but paying 41% tax. I see realy nice homes around my workplace being given for social housing. I see millionaires paying feck all tax.
I can't afford a home and may never despite not smoking, not drinking, not gambling and saving €1,000 per month.

I'm not poor enough or able to work the system to get social housing and I'm not self-employed so not many options for writing off tax.

The government gave me free eduction in college and a measly IR £35 or later €53 per week for a grant. I'm grateful, fair play!
I'll pay it back one hundred times over though.

Is someone who is long term employed and fecking about on benefits more entitled to subsidised council housing than me despite the €1,000 tax raping I give to the revenue every month? Is a millionaire with a clever accountant entitled to pay less tax then me?

Maybe so, life isn't fair and I don't know the solution

Steve

darkman2 wrote: »

For all the pompous gits who were spouting out crap like 'I wish the Celtic Tiger never happened'..........

Feedback FTW - you can't blame AH for the recession:mad:

Voodu Child

It's gonna be a golden age for the repo business though! And one that will never end :pac:

darkman2

Karoma wrote: »

What age are you, OP?

24 and like most getting more then a little worried for my job and my qaulity of life. Yet im prepared to take a paycut at the present time if demanded just so I can keep my job. Unlike the Unions which will demand excessive pay rises at these partnership talks and potentially put alot of people out of work. We are uncompetitive now - we demand too much and give too little. I fear its only a matter of time before our most important employer - Intel - pulls out. That will destroy us.

jon1981

micmclo wrote: »

Very arrogant statement! Let me tell you my point of view.
I worked hard through college and was the first member of my family ever to go to college. Worked damn hard at weekends after 3 and a half hours round trip on Bus Eireann.
Now I'm on a damn good salary but paying 41% tax. I see realy nice homes around my workplace being given for social housing. I see millionaires paying feck all tax.
I can't afford a home and may never despite not smoking, not drinking, not gambling and saving €1,000 per month.

I'm not poor enough or able to work the system to get social housing and I'm not self-employed so not many options for writing off tax.

The government gave me free eduction in college and a measly IR £35 or later €53 per week for a grant. I'm grateful, fair play!
I'll pay it back one hundred times over though.

Is someone who is long term employed and fecking about on benefits more entitled to subsidised council housing than me despite the €1,000 tax raping I give to the revenue every month? Is a millionaire with a clever accountant entitled to pay less tax then me?

Maybe so, life isn't fair and I don't know the solution

+1 i couldnt agree more and now im getting angry as i have huge chip on my shoulder about this topic. its always the people in the middle (like us) that get screwed not poor enough to get the hand outs and not rich enough to screw the tax system...life aint fair

darkman2

micmclo wrote: »

No probs, I'm in an multi-national and not a chance I'll be let go.

lol - you absolutely sure about that. Multinationals are most fragile in this economy. Like I say - complacency - you have demonstrated it with this comment. I agree with you the middle class gets ****** and we will in this downturn. They talk about construction workers - thats just the start. It will work through the economy like a virus.

mikemac

darkman2 wrote: »

lol - you absolutely sure about that.

Nope, but most senior person out of 35 (only there two years)so barring a **** up, last in first out applies

I know they are only in Ireland for cheap tax rates. They declare all their profits in Ireland. Realy can't see them shutting down

kerash

darkman2 wrote: »

For all the pompous gits who were spouting out crap like 'I wish the Celtic Tiger never happened'..........well your going to change your tune now because things are becoming harder for everyone - although nothing like the 80's its gonna get rough and only the strongest survive in weak times. The thing is though - you have to ask yourselves the question - can you survive a recession? My opinion is most in this country cannot and a harsh reality check is coming. Strangely im in favour of a slight recession to teach the young that life is not milk and honey - however what if its not a 'slight recession' coming and something far more serious? How many people on this forum condemning the Celtic Tiger will be homeless soon enough? Ive got an opinion that alot of people are going to fall on hard times yet I dont think thats a bad thing. There has been far too much complacency and the hens are just starting to come home to roost.

Its those that benefited the least from the CT that will feel any recession the most and this is unfair on them, it was a monumental failing of the government not to ensure stable social circumstances for future recession in this country and those who are now at the lower economic scale and the older generations will feel it more. I would never wish a recession on those people.:(

darkman2

kerash wrote: »

Its those that benefited the least from the CT that will feel any recession the most and this is unfair on them, it was a monumental failing of the government not to ensure stable social circumstances for future recession in this country and those who are now at the lower economic scale and the older generations will feel it more. I would never wish a recession on those people.:(

The middle classes will suffer most - im 100% sure of that. The poor will still get their social welfare. Ironically it is middle class house buyers that may well face some extreme trouble in the not too distant future. I dont exempt myself when I say some of us will end up homeless. We have taken the **** for so long and we will suffer most. Most will go on the dole thus sucking the life out of the government finances - Presto straight back to the 80's.

mikemac

Whoy, I've posted here on this thread too often but one other point

Did you have an SSIA? Were you made to feel like a leper as you heard about people getting new cars or house extensions, etc with theirs. Constant advertisments everywhere!
Guess what, the people who didn't have money to spare and were on tight budgets didn't take out an SSIA. Ok, many people are feckless about saving but many just couldn't spare the cash

And people who were comfortable not only got an SSIA but they opened one for every child they had using the childs name. Oh yes, there were canny financial geniuses allright

Never was there a government scheme that transferred money from low income earners to higher income earners.

This goes back to kerash's point above and it's a good point

Its those that benefited the least from the CT that will feel any recession the most and this is unfair on them

Sangre

darkman2 wrote: »

The middle classes will suffer most - im 100% sure of that. The poor will still get their social welfare. Ironically it is middle class house buyers that may well face some extreme trouble in the not too distant future. I dont exempt myself when I say some of us will end up homeless. We have taken the **** for so long and we will suffer most. Most will go on the dole thus sucking the life out of the government finances - Presto straight back to the 80's.

if the middle class will suffer the most why don't you quite your job and go on the dole?

darkman2

Sangre wrote: »

if the middle class will suffer the most why don't you quite your job and go on the dole?

Erm because I want to work - unlike some in society - who bleed off my taxes and I get a good wage. Does that mean im secure at the present time - no. The people in the middle face the biggest problems.

kerash

darkman2 wrote: »

The middle classes will suffer most - im 100% sure of that. The poor will still get their social welfare. Ironically it is middle class house buyers that may well face some extreme trouble in the not too distant future. I dont exempt myself when I say some of us will end up homeless. We have taken the **** for so long and we will suffer most. Most will go on the dole thus sucking the life out of the government finances - Presto straight back to the 80's.

Yes the middle classes will of course suffer the effects of a recession and I have sympathy for those in the position of losing homes etc, but its incorrect imo to say that the 'poor' will be less affected. Many of those receiving social welfare payments are stuck in a position that they cannot do anything about. What about a carer for their ill spouse who have both worked all their lives, only to be out of work during the good times due to illness/retirement. Most of those are just surviving during the CT, i'm sure you can imagine what the thought of a large recession would do to those people.

Sangre

Yeah, my heart bleeds for them. Forget about the lower classes who struggle to get by as it is with barely minimum wage jobs. The poor middle class will only be able to buy a new car every 4 years now

board om

micmclo wrote: »

Nope, but most senior person out of 35 (only there two years)so barring a **** up, last in first out applies

I know they are only in Ireland for cheap tax rates. They declare all their profits in Ireland. Realy can't see them shutting down

i dont want to scare you or anything but senior person out of 35 might not be the safest.

most senior person out of 35 = most expensive person out of 35

in your local coffee shop or smoothie bar, last in first out applies. in a downturn its "what will save the company the most money" applies.

me, i am resorting to blackmail. i figure if i dig enough dirt on upper management there has to be a job for life. i just have to figure out who is banging their PA, then all i need is a few photos and i am sorted

FunkyChicken

thanks for your technical analysis of the future you original poster you

K-9

micmclo wrote: »

Nope, but most senior person out of 35 (only there two years)so barring a **** up, last in first out applies

I know they are only in Ireland for cheap tax rates. They declare all their profits in Ireland. Realy can't see them shutting down

The US is chatting about stopping that.

Thing about cheap tax rates is the East European countries are copying us.

Financial Services are the same as any other sector. They'll follow the profits!

darkman2

Fact is everything is against us. The Europeans are increasingly aggitated by our corporate tax rate (secretly the Lisbon treaty is part of their fight to end our corporate tax rates) - they will end this. When they do we must leave the European Union or alternatively we could reject the treaty on the basis of corporate tax alone - we should push for a guarentee our tax rates are sovereign.

Steve

Seanies32 wrote: »

Financial Services are the same as any other sector. They'll follow the profits!

They'll follow cheap labour - biggest cost.

We're fubar in that department.

weemcd

time for everyone to get into medical research, aprox 2500e for a few weeks sitting in a doss house, playing playstation, watching dvds and talking shíte to anyone else who is there, free bed/board/shower/laundry facilities with the occasional blood draw.

do one every couple of weeks, and no tax babe-ee!

ModeSkeletor

I think the worst people who will be affected by this are those couples, usually late 20's or early 30's who just bought the 3 bed semi-d somewhere in Lucan in the last 2 years. They usually both work full time, throwing the kids in the creche. Both have 06, 07 cars (bought on finance obviously). We all know the type.

My reason for this is older people (50+) usually own property and will have pensions, or state pensions to cover food/bills/etc. These sort will be fine, kids are grown up, mortgage is paid, generally not in debt. It doesn't matter TOO much if they lose their jobs 5 years before retirement.

Younger people (18-24) will just stay at home or rent until the economy settles down again in the future, before purchasing a house or starting a family/etc. Losing their jobs would just mean less money for cars/drinking/clothes/gadgets/etc. They can afford to wait a year, 2 years, before getting another job.

It is the people in the first paragraph I think will be hit worst.

invincibleirish

Blame Fianna Fail for squandering the boom

darkman2

invincibleirish wrote: »

Blame Fianna Fail for squandering the boom

Yeah as if Fine Geal (pro brits) would have done much better.

ModeSkeletor

I also think crime will increase dramatically if the economy goes downhill. When the working-class people don't have jobs and can't get jobs, what do they do all day? And what do they do for money? Crime!

darkman2

ModeSkeletor wrote: »

I also think crime will increase dramatically if the economy goes downhill. When the working-class people don't have jobs and can't get jobs, what do they do all day? And what do they do for money? Crime!

I hate to burst your bubble but the 'criminal classes' have nothing to worry about. The working class kids will slide seemlessy into criminality. You think now is bad!? In a year or two things will be much worse.

kerash

ModeSkeletor wrote: »

I think the worst people who will be affected by this are those couples, usually late 20's or early 30's who just bought the 3 bed semi-d somewhere in Lucan in the last 2 years. They usually both work full time, throwing the kids in the creche. Both have 06, 07 cars (bought on finance obviously). We all know the type.

My reason for this is older people (50+) usually own property and will have pensions, or state pensions to cover food/bills/etc. These sort will be fine, kids are grown up, mortgage is paid, generally not in debt. It doesn't matter TOO much if they lose their jobs 5 years before retirement.

Younger people (18-24) will just stay at home or rent until the economy settles down again in the future, before purchasing a house or starting a family/etc. Losing their jobs would just mean less money for cars/drinking/clothes/gadgets/etc. They can afford to wait a year, 2 years, before getting another job.

It is the people in the first paragraph I think will be hit worst.

Think the over 50's will be ok? who will said "late 20's or early 30's who just bought the 3 bed semi-d somewhere in Lucan in the last 2 years" turn to if times get tough, me thinks it'll be ma and da....;)

ModeSkeletor

darkman2 wrote: »

I hate to burst your bubble but the 'criminal classes' have nothing to worry about. The working class kids will slide seemlessy into criminality. You think now is bad!? In a year or two things will be much worse.

What do you mean burst my bubble? I completely agree with you!

K-9

invincibleirish wrote: »

Blame Fianna Fail for squandering the boom

Most of the boom is in peoples pockets because they voted for tax cuts.

Fine Gael and Labour wanted tax cuts as well. So 90% of the electorate have voted for lower taxes.

When are people going to cop, high taxes means good public services! Look at Germany, Sweden etc.

ModeSkeletor

Seanies32 wrote: »

Most of the boom is in peoples pockets because they voted for tax cuts.

Fine Gael and Labour wanted tax cuts as well. So 90% of the electorate have voted for lower taxes.

When are people going to cop, high taxes means good public services! Look at Germany, Sweden etc.

So long as the government aren't pissing away the high taxes on "Charvais" shirts and tropical islands and the like :pac:

darkman2

kerash wrote: »

Think the over 50's will be ok? who will said "late 20's or early 30's who just bought the 3 bed semi-d somewhere in Lucan in the last 2 years" turn to if times get tough, me thinks it'll be ma and da....;)

That comfort is already not available to most. I hope that people find homes but draggging on grandma or grandda is unacceptable in my view but it wil happen to families up and down the country

K-9

ModeSkeletor wrote: »

So long as the government aren't pissing away the high taxes on "Charvais" shirts and tropical islands and the like :pac:

Or on massive public sector pay rises :pac:

People get the Govt. they vote for. They also get the Opposition they vote for!

invincibleirish

Seanies32 wrote: »

Most of the boom is in peoples pockets because they voted for tax cuts.

Fine Gael and Labour wanted tax cuts as well. So 90% of the electorate have voted for lower taxes.

When are people going to cop, high taxes means good public services! Look at Germany, Sweden etc.

The money that was raised during the boom was more then enough to improve things more substantially then it did.

Massive spending has only seen limited improvements

FFs approach to all matters of policy was skewered by an attitude of compromise, it worked on some issues (like Northern Ireland), it failed on others (Health), throw in a range of huge overspending on things like Roads, E Voting, PPars, WRC, Decentralisation, NSS etc. and you realise we have a Government unwilling to stand up and take decisions.


The past 10/15 years have been great for Ireland but its time to shape up and face a new set of challenges.Will Brian Cowen do it? going on his track record in Government, i doubt it.

EamonnKeane

darkman2 wrote: »

Yeah as if Fine Geal (pro brits) would have done much better.

Oh noes tey r pro brittin! Grow up.

Black Swan

Kindly pass me the "milk and honey."

ART6

Seanies32 wrote: »

Or on massive public sector pay rises :pac:

People get the Govt. they vote for. They also get the Opposition they vote for!

It's also said that people get the government they deserve. We must be a bad lot.:rolleyes:

Caoimhín

Even with my limited grasp of economics, this all looks like the perfect storm.
Can the government realistically do anything about the bloated and inefficient public/civil service though?
Would FF have the political will to introduce measures to balance the wealth distribution in this country?
What will happen when the masses of economic migrants are made redundant

luckat

Who do you think started the Celtic Tiger economy? It didn't just happen as we sat here!

There's a Chinese proverb that goes something like: "A man who sits by a tree with his mouth open seldom has a duck dinner fly into it".

Before the tiger economy, Ireland was in far, far worse trouble than we are now.

Through government planning - I don't know if it was Fianna Fail or Fine Gael, and I don't care - the educational system was pumped up, and the IDA was sent out to hunt down work with the mantra "We've got educated hardworking people, we've got low tax rates, you can make money here".

But now that there's a downturn, we're sitting here squabbling about which of the two main political parties we should blame, and about whether working-class people or middle-class people 'will' be hit worse 'when' a downturn comes.

We'd be more sensible *planning* our way out of this, and *co-operating* between parties and classes to do so?

Caoimhín

luckat wrote: »

Who do you think started the Celtic Tiger economy? It didn't just happen as we sat here!


Through government planning - I don't know if it was Fianna Fail or Fine Gael, and I don't care - the educational system was pumped up, and the IDA was sent out to hunt down work with the mantra "We've got educated hardworking people, we've got low tax rates, you can make money here".

But now that there's a downturn, we're sitting here squabbling about which of the two main political parties we should blame, and about whether working-class people or middle-class people 'will' be hit worse 'when' a downturn comes.quote]

Agreed.
However the said political parties facilitated the property pyramid scam through tax exemption and dodgy planning. The collapse of this scam will magnify the forthcoming recession and has indirectly contributed to the massive wealth imbalance I noted earlier.

Objectivly, and maybe this has its roots in some jealousy, but is it not absurd that we now have a society where one person can spend 120,000.00 + euro on a car while others are indebted to a bank for 40 years for the privilage of living in a shoe box flat in Bally-go-backwards?

Maybe this is an opprtunity where we can collectivly look at our society and decide if we want to continue with the American model of economics and social justice.

luckat

Yes, Caoibhin, agreed.

By the way, those who say they can't afford houses while good homes go to those on social and affordable housing lists - have you looked at the criteria for social and affordable housing?

In one plan, you can earn up to 50k and get a house or flat for half-price, the council playing the other half.

As (/if) your wages rise, you can pay back for the other half.

By the way, Caoibhin, if you want to quote, there's a 'quote' button in the reply form that makes it easier to distinguish the quote from your reply.

ixoy

luckat wrote: »

By the way, those who say they can't afford houses while good homes go to those on social and affordable housing lists - have you looked at the criteria for social and affordable housing?

In one plan, you can earn up to 50k and get a house or flat for half-price, the council playing the other half.

And surely this is in itself shows there's something awry - that someone who's on 50% more than the average industrial salary still requires help to be able to purchase a home? The government have not helped the future economy with their uncontrolled "handling" of the construction industry.

Dotsie~tmp

On the upside at least we might be able to afford a house now (assuming we have a job that is!). I think you will find however that Ireland is in fact a nation well placed to weather the worst of this coming GLOBAL contraction (the debt laden countries mainly). Being small is good in these circumstances. Irish people and workforces are adaptable and will roll with the blows.

SimpleSam06

luckat wrote: »

Who do you think started the Celtic Tiger economy? It didn't just happen as we sat here!

The celtic tiger was mostly caused by the relaxing of international credit rules and much reduced interest rates, flooding countries with money. Other countries such as the US and UK enjoyed similar economic booms. However everyone is now coming to the inevitable end of that road, in that eventually it all has to be repaid at some stage. That time has come.

What our wonderful government spent the huge tax gains from the boom on was the public sector. They hired many many more people, and paid them much higher wages than the private sector, over the last eight years.

As a result of which, the taxes are no longer there to pay this huge group of people who can and will bring the country to its knees at any mention of pay reductions, rate of pay increase reductions, or layoffs.

In my considered opinion, its going to get extremely nasty.

So what can you do to keep your head above water over the next four years? It really depends on your personal situation. Debt is your enemy in a recession, pay off whatever you owe as quickly as possible, and save the rest. Trim the fat, snip that credit card in half. Bankruptcy laws have been recently changed so you really don't want to find yourself bankrupt in Ireland.

Educate yourself so you have other options for employment, the ones fastest on their feet are the ones that will come out on top. Don't be afraid to get qualifications in something other than what you are doing right now, even learning a language like French or German will give you choices you didn't have before. Research visas and labour laws, when a lot of people might be going to the US or UK, you can be reaping the benefits on the continent. Take advantage of the free education you can find on the internet.

At the end of the day, very few people are going to be starving at the side of the road, so I wouldn't be unduly concerned. A LOT of people are going to have to accept a reduction in their quality of life and their prospects for the future, unless they make a future for themselves.

Dotsie~tmp wrote:

I think you will find however that Ireland is in fact a nation well placed to weather the worst of this coming GLOBAL contraction (the debt laden countries mainly).

It may shock you to find that Ireland is one of the most debt laden countries out there. Most of our industry is foreign, who can pull out on a whim. We are in a terrible position, and you can lay that squarely at the feet of the government.

dixiefly

SimpleSam06 wrote: »

The celtic tiger was mostly caused by the relaxing of international credit rules and much reduced interest rates, flooding countries with money. Other countries such as the US and UK enjoyed similar economic booms. However everyone is now coming to the inevitable end of that road, in that eventually it all has to be repaid at some stage. That time has come.

What our wonderful government spent the huge tax gains from the boom on was the public sector. They hired many many more people, and paid them much higher wages than the private sector, over the last eight years.

If you were offered a job in the public sector at similar or slightly less wages would you take it? Is it a good area to be in over the next few years?

Jay D

darkman2 wrote: »

For all the pompous gits who were spouting out crap like 'I wish the Celtic Tiger never happened'..........well your going to change your tune now because things are becoming harder for everyone - although nothing like the 80's its gonna get rough and only the strongest survive in weak times. The thing is though - you have to ask yourselves the question - can you survive a recession? My opinion is most in this country cannot and a harsh reality check is coming. Strangely im in favour of a slight recession to teach the young that life is not milk and honey - however what if its not a 'slight recession' coming and something far more serious? How many people on this forum condemning the Celtic Tiger will be homeless soon enough? Ive got an opinion that alot of people are going to fall on hard times yet I dont think thats a bad thing. There has been far too much complacency and the hens are just starting to come home to roost.

I love pointing and laughing at these penis brains especially those who still live with mammy.

the Celtic Tiger never happened. Who here saw a wild animal running through the country?

The business boom experienced here was probably one of the best things ever in my life. House, savings and all that.

I reckon I'll survive.

SimpleSam06

dixiefly wrote: »

If you were offered a job in the public sector at similar or slightly less wages would you take it? Is it a good area to be in over the next few years?

From what I hear from the public sector, most new hires are on a temporary or contract basis, and hiring generally has been cut down. The government appears to be taking an attrition approach, which is about all they can do, and not replacing people who retire.

If you can get a permanent public sector job, you could do a lot worse for the near to mid term.

Dave!

darkman2 wrote: »

Yeah as if Fine Geal (pro brits) would have done much better.

You're my hero darkman

Caoimhín

Would it be accurate to say that there is no there is no sympathy for striking public sector workers?

It bugs the hell out of me when i hear civil servants who are in safe, well paid jobs cribbing about "work practices". If i have a problem with work practices i get fired, i pay my own pension, no overtime, own health insurance. If the business is not there for the company and i cant generate income i will be fired. If i dont hit my targets or if my work is inefficient i will be fired.

Things are going to get tough, i can not rely on bail outs, hand outs or subsidies. If i cant afford to live here i will have to sell up and leave, simple as that.

So, do i have any sympathy for striking teachers/nurses/pen pushing dossers upset at reduction in overtime or having to do some work?
No.