May Temperature Forecast/Analysis

Trogdor

Ok, so time to kick the next one off. The 1961-1990 May mean for the remaining 10 stations is 10.4C. Here's the May questions.

1) May mean temperature 08
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific)
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific)
4) On May Day (1st) How much rain will the protestors/hippies endure in Dublin (Airport)?
5) On May Day What will be the Max Temperature be in Knock Airport?

Obviously because of the bonus questions, guesses will have to be in by 30th April.

Mothman

As usual I try to give stats for past few years.
Stats are for 9 stations, the 10 minus Claremorris as I don't have stats for this station. On average Claremorris would bring overall mean temp down by 0.04C

Overall mean
2000 11.4
01 12.1
02 11.2
03 11.1
04 11.4
05 10.6
06 11.1
07 11.4

Warmest, 12.5 1990
Coolest 8.9 1979

Overall Max
2000 24.7
01 24.0
02 20.1
03 25.2
04 21.3
05 19.0
06 22.5
07 23.5
Highest 27.2C 1997, Shannon and Valentia

Overall Min
2000 1.6
01 -1.1
02 0.8
03 2.1
04 0.2
05 -1.7
06 0.5
07 -0.4
Lowest -3.0C 1979 Casement
Clones (1979) and Kilkenny (1967) -3.7C

All data from CSO with plenty of post processing

Mothman

Mean max for Knock in May.

01 15.6C
02 13.3
03 12.7
04 14.3
05 13.0
06 13.5
07 13.9

Data Met Eireann Monthly Weather Bulletin

rc28

1) 10.9c
2)24.0c
3)-0.3c
4)5mm
5)13.5c

Deep Easterly

1) May mean temperature 08 10.9c
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 23.3c
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) -0.4c
4) On May Day (1st) How much rain will the protestors/hippies endure in Dublin (Airport)? 5.2mm
5) On May Day What will be the Max Temperature be in Knock Airport? 9.2c

M.T. Cranium

May monthly mean -- 11.1 C
Max temp for month -- 24.7 C
Min temp for month ... -1.1 C

Rainfall Dublin on May 1st ... 1.8 mm
Max temp at Knock May 1st ... 12.4 C

DOCARCH

1) 11.7c
2) 22.1c
3) -0.6c
4) 2.7mm
5) 12.9c

nacho libre

1) May mean temperature 11.3
2) 24.3c
3) 1.2
4) On May Day (1st) How much rain will the protestors endure in Dublin (Airport)? 3.2mm
5) On May Day What will be the Max Temperature be in Knock Airport? 11.9c

Trogdor

Thanks for those stats MM:)
1) 11.9c
2) 23.7c
3) 0.3c
4) 4.2mm
5) 12.2c

Snowbie

1) May mean temperature 08 12.2
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 22.5c
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) -0.1c
4) On May Day (1st) How much rain will the protestors/hippies endure in Dublin (Airport)? 5mm
5) On May Day What will be the Max Temperature be in Knock Airport? 11.7c

nilhg

I missed out on this last month and failed miserably the previous, so heres hoping for third time lucky.

1) May mean temperature 08 12.2c
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 23.8c
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 0.9c
4) On May Day (1st) How much rain will the protestors/hippies endure in Dublin (Airport)? 1.5mm
5) On May Day What will be the Max Temperature be in Knock Airport? 11.8c

Danno

1) May mean temperature 08 12.0
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 23.5c
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) +1.7c
4) On May Day (1st) How much rain will the protestors/hippies endure in Dublin (Airport)? 0.8mm
5) On May Day What will be the Max Temperature be in Knock Airport? 12.3c

gurramok

1) 11.4c
2) 22.3c
3) 3.3c
4) 0.3mm
5) 13.5c

Deep Easterly

Trogdor, could you ignore my first guesses (can't edit for some reason), just realised they are too similar to rc28's forecast.

Updated..

1) May mean temperature 08 10.8c
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 23.9c
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) -0.4c
4) On May Day (1st) How much rain will the protestors/hippies endure in Dublin (Airport)? 4.7mm
5) On May Day What will be the Max Temperature be in Knock Airport? 10.2c

May is mine.....:D

Weather BOFH

1) May mean temperature 08: 11.8C
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific): 22.7C
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific): -0.5C
4) On May Day (1st) How much rain will the protestors/hippies endure in Dublin (Airport)?: 3mm
5) On May Day What will be the Max Temperature be in Knock Airport?: 12.5C

squonk

1) May mean temperature 08 10.6c
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 21.5c
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) -0.5c
4) On May Day (1st) How much rain will the protestors/hippies endure in Dublin (Airport)? 4.8mm
5) On May Day What will be the Max Temperature be in Knock Airport? 10.1c

kindredspirit

I am as good at this as guessing the lotto numbers.

May mean. 11.4c

Highest temp at any station. 22.1c

Lowest temp at any station. 0.6c

1/5/08 Amount of rain at Dublin Airport. 4.3mm

1/5/08 Max temp in Knock Airport that day. 12.8c

Supercell

1) May mean temperature 08 11.2c
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 23.7c
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 0.3c
4) On May Day (1st) How much rain will the protestors/hippies endure in Dublin (Airport)? 0.6mm
5) On May Day What will be the Max Temperature be in Knock Airport? 11.4c

Deep Easterly

Some Overall Means for the month of May from previous years:



A benign month.

ch750536

1) May mean temperature 08 14.1c
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 25.2c
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 2.1c
4) On May Day (1st) How much rain will the protestors/hippies endure in Dublin (Airport)? 3.1mm
5) On May Day What will be the Max Temperature be in Knock Airport? 18.4c

Mothman

Max at Knock today 1st May 11.0C and rainfall at Dublin AP up to 1800 GMT is 0.1mm

Supercell

Hmm, scoring for bonus question rainfall amounts is tricky when the totals are low.
I'm thinking scoring as follows might be more fair?


Forecast accurate to :-

0.2mm - 10 Points
0.5mm - 8 Points
1.5mm - 6 Points
2.0mm - 4 Points
4.0mm - 2 Points
>4.0mm - 0 Points

Mothman, met.ie is listing yesterdays Dublin AP total as 0.3mm rather than 0.1mm - which is the official value do you know?

Anyone have any objections or suggestions?

Mothman

Supercell wrote: »

Mothman, met.ie is listing yesterdays Dublin AP total as 0.3mm rather than 0.1mm - which is the official value do you know?

0.3mm, 0.1mm was up to 6pm and I put it in as an indication.

Trogdor

Mean up to midnight on the 1st is 8.9C. No data from Mullingar still so asumimg we won't be getting any this month either.

Deep Easterly

Mullingar data won't be available until the start of the following month, so until then we will have to estimate. Shouldn't be a problem, we were only 0.1c off from Mullingar's final figure during April.:)

Updated trend charts for the year so far up to the end of April, just to get a more climitological view on how things are going...


The 2008 cooling trend of the Overall Irish Mean seems to have climaxed during the middle part of April; taken as a whole, the April 08 deviation has caused a very slight rise in the trend. Will this rise continue through May? or is it just a climitological blip...? Tune in next month!!!

Included on the graph is the 2007 deviation trend for the same period for comparrison.

The trend chart was adjusted to include just the 10 stations we are now using in our monthly mean analysis.

The chart below sums up the difference between 2007 and 2008 D.F.A for the period Jan to Apr:


The above chart indicates that 2008 so far (up to midnight 30th April) is almost 0.9c cooler than up to the same point in 2007. According to climate researchers, 2007 was the warmest year in Ireland on record. So far, this record has remain unchallenged by the current year temp profile.

However, if the next few months are warmer than average, then we could be looking at another very warm year ahead (deviational speaking). A long way to go, however. So watch this space!!:)

Mothman

Graphs for May.
30 mean stands at 7.8C. It's down a little from past couple days, because the first 2 days of May have been cooler than April.

Trogdor

Its a tad harder to guess the mullingar data when you haven't had any since the start of the month at least we had something from the start of the month in April. If I had to, I'd estimate the temp at 9.5C/9.4C anyway though, so no change on todays figure of 9.5C
Trend:

Forecasts:

Deep Easterly

trogdor wrote: »

Its a tad harder to guess the mullingar data when you haven't had any since the start of the month at least we had something from the start of the month in April.

Then drop it. The trend will be the same anyway. It will give us an idea, and won't effect the overall mean that much. but I insist we include the monthly Mullingar mean value at the end of the month for the compitition results.

Deep Easterly

Some top temperatures from stations around the country during May 07:




T'wll be interesting to see if the current warm spell will allow temps to break these values.:)

Data courtasy of Met Eireann

Deep Easterly

Thought I would continue the little unofficial series that I have been doing since February as a little side note to the analysis/competition. I have noticed that I have dwelt on 86 for some reason, so I may as well continue this for a while.

1986 is considered one of the coldest, if not coldest, years of the 20th century in our sweet and green land. Certainly February, March and April, as you may have read earlier, were colder than average months in 86. So how did May 86 turn out..?

Here is the trend map of the Overall Irish Mean (using just 6 stations)* worked out during May 86':



It is obvious from the chart above that May 86 was quite chilly, particularly in the first half of the month. It did warm up, albeit slowly, during the second half, but not enough to bring the final mean above average. The Overall Irish Mean of the 10 stations we use finished off at *9.9c, 0.5c below the 61-90 mean. (**not correctly reflected in the above chart as Shannon, Belmullet, Casement and Cork not included in trend due to time limits, but the trend itself remains valid as a national overview)

Some extracts from "Irish Meteorological Service" overview for May 86:

"May was a wet, dull month particularly in the west:rolleyes: and southwest. During the 1st week winds were mainly easterly; from the 8th southwesterly or westerly winds prevailed.

"The weather was unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain on most days. The storm of the 27th caused some damage as winds gusted as high as 75 to 80 miles and hour in parts of the west:rolleyes:.

"Thunderstorms were reported on the 13th, 14th, 21st and 28th. Record rainfalls were recorded at Belmullet, Galway:rolleyes: and Claremorris:rolleyes:, while Cork Airport had the wettest day of the month when 26.9mm fell on the 17th.

"The east had the most sunshine with Rosslare having 210 hrs of sunshine, near it's monthly average."

Despite high rainfall totals over the western half of the country during May 86, the east recorded most of the thunderstorms, with Dublin Apt, Casement and Rosslare the only main synoptic stations to record such during this month. (Casement recorded 3 thunder days this month).

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Thought I would continue the little unofficial series that I have been doing since February as a little side note to the analysis/competition. I have noticed that I have dwelt on 86 for some reason, so I may as well continue this for a while.

1986 is considered one of the coldest, if not coldest, years of the 20th century in our sweet and green land. Certainly February, March and April, as you may have read earlier, were colder than average months in 86. So how did May 86 turn out..?

Here is the trend map of the Overall Irish Mean (using just 6 stations)* worked out during May 86':



It is obvious from the chart above that May 86 was quite chilly, particularly in the first half of the month. It did warm up, albeit slowly, during the second half, but not enough to bring the final mean above average. The Overall Irish Mean of the 10 stations we use finished off at *9.9c, 0.5c below the 61-90 mean. (**not correctly reflected in the above chart as Shannon, Belmullet, Casement and Cork not included in trend due to time limits, but the trend itself remains valid as a national overview)

Some extracts from "Irish Meteorological Service" overview for May 86:

"May was a wet, dull month particularly in the west:rolleyes: and southwest. During the 1st week winds were mainly easterly; from the 8th southwesterly or westerly winds prevailed.

"The weather was unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain on most days. The storm of the 27th caused some damage as winds gusted as high as 75 to 80 miles and hour in parts of the west:rolleyes:.

"Thunderstorms were reported on the 13th, 14th, 21st and 28th. Record rainfalls were recorded at Belmullet, Galway:rolleyes: and Claremorris:rolleyes:, while Cork Airport had the wettest day of the month when 26.9mm fell on the 17th.

"The east had the most sunshine with Rosslare having 210 hrs of sunshine, near it's monthly average."

Despite high rainfall totals over the western half of the country during May 86, the east recorded most of the thunderstorms, with Dublin Apt, Casement and Rosslare the only main synoptic stations to record such during this month. (Casement recorded 3 thunder days this month).

wow. A storm like that in late May. I wonder what the weather was like in the other summer months.

I vaguely recall - due to being very young - one summer between '86 and '88 as being miserable- even worse than last Summer according to my uncle.

Mothman

Graphs updated above,
30 day mean jumped up 0.3C today to 8.4C

Deep Easterly

Overall Mean up to midnight 7th May 08 stands at 12.7°C, which is 2.3°C above normal. Only Cork Airport has a mean up to this point that is close to normal (10.6°C); While Belmullet is (shockingly) the warmest station in both absolute and average terms (13.6°C).

Mean rainfall up to midnight 7th stands at 10.4mm, which is 15.2% of normal so far. The southwest is by far the wettest area so far this May, with Valentia and Cork already recieving 33% (combined) of their expected rainfall this month.

Thanks to he who helped very much with these totals..;)

Deep Easterly

13.0c today, which is 2.6c above average. No sign of a fall in this value over the next few days.

On the contrary..:)

mike65

Okay this is across the water, but it looks like temps could hit high 20s by end of month.

edit Its already in the high 20s in SE!

Mike.

All ye who wished cold and snow upon me REPENT and bask in the glory of the sun!

Repent before its too late and never wish for snow again!
The end of snow is nigh! All hail global warming !!
We should paint the ice caps black

Deep Easterly

Deleted User wrote: »

All ye who wished cold and snow upon me REPENT and bask in the glory of the sun!

Repent before its too late and never wish for snow again!
The end of snow is nigh! All hail global warming !!
We should paint the ice caps black

"And then we shall drink the blood of those who hail global warming; And to feast upon their still beating flesh we will, for it is written, and shall be done!"

13.4c today...

Danno

Whoa lads! The sun is getting to some of yea

Mothman

Birr 25.0C today 12th May.

Min 2.2C at Knock on 2nd,
but the one that counts, is 2.4C at Mullingar on 2nd.

nacho libre

ch750536 wrote: »

1) May mean temperature 08 14.1c
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 25.2c
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 2.1c
4) On May Day (1st) How much rain will the protestors/hippies endure in Dublin (Airport)? 3.1mm




:mad::pac:

ninebeanrows

Chilly!

Supercell

Hope that comes off, my predictions are looking pretty dodgy for this month so far!

Trogdor

Update on this months trend so far

Mothman

Graphs for May.
30 mean stands at 11.0C, up from 7.8C on the 2nd.

Mothman

Mullingar min 2.2C

Ballyhaise may have been as low as well.

I wrong before when I said Knock didn't count

It doesn't feature in averages as it hasn't been in operation long enough, but it is a synoptic station and does count.

Mothman

Mothman wrote: »

Mullingar min 2.2C

Ballyhaise may have been as low as well.

Ballyhaise min 2.1C

Low temps this morning,

Possibly lower this morning as Dublin AP and Casement down to 2.4C and 2.3C respectively this morning

Mothman

New low for month.
Dublin AP 1.7C this morning

Mothman

Mothman wrote: »

New low for month.
Dublin AP 1.7C this morning

Bettered again.
Dublin AP min on morning of 20th
+0.6C

Supercell

Ohh, my min prediction for the month was 0.3°C, pretty close

nacho libre

What is the mean temperature so far this month?

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

What is the mean temperature so far this month?

12.9c today. 2.5c above average. Dublin Airport remains the coolest station with a deviation of +0.8c; while Belmullet is the warmest station at this point of the month with an whopping anomaly of +3.8c. Hard to believe it's in the arse end of Mayo..:D