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What If.....

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 228 ✭✭Saabdub


    It's a what if:D It requires that Germany be at war with the Soviet Union or have substantial forces deployed along the frontier. The Royal Navy escapes the loss of Mainland Britain and stages to Canadian/US ports, where it is in a position to support the build up of forces either on the Atlantic coast of Africa or in Egypt. If it's on the Egyptian side oil won't be a problem, so it's a matter of deploying sufficient troops, material and air and naval forces to overcome the Axis advantages in the Med. Difficult yes, but not beyond the resources of the US in the 1940s.

    Saabdub


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,698 ✭✭✭Dinter


    Kaiser_Sma wrote: »
    The industrial muscle of the united states is often underestimated, the pacific war could only last so long, the Japanese position was unsustainable. It is entirely probable that had Russia or Britain fallen that America would still have defeated the Germans. It is even still a close run race if both the European allies were defeated, although it probably would have waited until after the pacific war was over. This of course all depends on the war weariness of the American people.

    I’m not too sure if the Americans would have attacked Germany if the Reich hadn’t thrown down the gauntlet by declaring war on them. There had not been much success up until then in convincing the public to back one. This is illustrated by the secret lend lease programme. As well as keeping the Germans in the dark about a blatant breach of neutrality it also meant that Congress did not have to deal with an angry or vocal public.

    As Terror rightly points out the logistics would have been a nightmare. The Atlantic differs from the Pacific in that there is no way to “island hop” any closer. It’s something crazy like 1 in 10 American troops were sent to Europe as against the Pacific during WWII. America would have been extremely stretched if it had to commit to fighting a war on two fronts thousands of miles from one another or their home base.

    Imagine the D-Day Armada sailing from the east coast of America across to invade Ireland. We have thousands of ships, many of them overloaded with the extra supplies needed for a month long voyage. They must dodge German U-Boats that have been informed of their departure and are operating out of Northern Ireland. The men exposed on deck must suffer storms, freezing fog and seasickness. The convoy will travel slowly so the outer cordon of destroyers and cruisers can ensure all ships are in their rightful place. Like dogs herding sheep. Although they will have air cover from the accompanying carriers they know their planes will be vastly outnumbered when they attempt landfall. They know that if a large enough wolf pack scatters the convoy or even part of it (happened sometimes in the Arctic convoys) very few of the transports will survive. As they get half way they will become fodder for German medium bombers and from then on every day will bring fresh attacks from E-boats, manned chariots and fighter-bombers as they get closer. They know that if the landing fails the chances of any of them returning home is very slim.

    I don’t think it’s viable.
    Kaiser_Sma wrote: »
    The dominion states and the colonies probably would have fought on as well, after the pacific theatre ended, it is likely that a larger force from India and Australia could have been brought to bear. Maybe even free Russians from beyond the Urals, though I don't know how effective this would be.

    Their troops will face the same trouble getting to Europe. Personally I don’t have a clue how colonies etc are transferred from one nation to another. However after WWI Germany’s were divvied up among the Allies and after WWII Italy and Japan’s were shared amongst the Allies as well. I assume if Britain has gone her colonies will be gone too. Even if they only have gotten self determination and not a “jackboot on their necks” I don’t see calls to send troops to Europe being especially popular. I think if I was leader of one of these colonies I’d be looking to my own defence and not sending my troops off on hopeless assaults thousands of miles away.

    Also how would you sell this idea to your people? The War with Britain would be over. There would be a settled peace. It's as easy to find Quislings in Britain as it was in Norway or Vichy. It would be exceedingly difficult to explain why it is incumbent on your country to send troops to take part in a war that's already over. To fight and die for a motherland that most of them have never even seen!
    Kaiser_Sma wrote: »
    Ireland probably would have been invaded, it would also be the perfect place for a counter invasion from America as its defences would be the least prepared and it's landscape hard to defend.

    I’m not at all sure we would have been invaded by Germany. This is a point I left out of my original concept because it’s sure to be controversial and based purely on what I’d do, although as has already been pointed out Hitler’s mental. :)

    Anyway according to Plan Green, German troops were only to come here if invited. I don’t think the Germans saw us as natural allies of the British and after the destruction of Britain I think they would expect us to accept them being next door.

    However what I do feel might have happened although I have no evidence for it, is that we might have been bribed into allowing a heavy German military presence. Namely offered the six counties back in return for allowing German garrisons around the treaty ports and probably Shannon as well for the duration. Although Ireland being an island might be difficult to defend, the Germans could easily thwart an American landing travelling thousands of miles through their wolf packs and land based aircraft.

    If we refused I would think we’d have a situation like Plan W. The Allies plan. Ensure that you have enough men in Northern Ireland so they can push the Irish army out of the way and continue on to assault a landing should the situation arise.

    In all fairness though, I don’t see the German army as being able to conquer the world. I really do think we’d be looking at an organised peace. However that peace would be very much in Germany’s favour.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,698 ✭✭✭Dinter


    Saabdub wrote: »
    Interesting, the invasion of North Africa was mounted directly from the US across the Atlantic with no staging in the European theatre.

    Operation Torch left from Britain. Sure there were paratroopers involved. It was an Anglo American joint invasion. Maybe there were some elements that came directly from America but not enough to say it had no staging in Europe.
    Saabdub wrote: »
    The other option would have been to use the Suez Canal and operate from Egpyt. If Egypt was lost they could have come up the Red Sea.

    Who's coming from the Red Sea? The Americans?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 228 ✭✭Saabdub


    Actually transport wasn't a problem. The Allies used converted Ocean Liners like the Queen Mary and Queen Elizabeth that could carry up to 15,000 troops each in relative comfort. The British Government had subsidised the construction of the ships for that very purpose. The liners were so fast that no Uboat could catch them so they usually sailed out of convoy. Just two liners could have transported a million troops across the Atlantic in just over 30 return trips.

    Saabdub


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 228 ✭✭Saabdub


    It's surprising but the Western Task Force which consisted of the 2nd armoured and 3rd and 9th infantry divisions, which landed on the Atlantic coast, came directly from the US. See Wikipedia for example http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Torch There was discssion of bringing them to England first but the Americans argued that to take the pressure of 8th Army they might as well just bring them direct to Africa:)
    Saabdub


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,698 ✭✭✭Dinter


    Saabdub wrote: »
    Actually transport wasn't a problem. The Allies used converted Ocean Liners like the Queen Mary and Queen Elizabeth that could carry up to 15,000 troops each in relative comfort. The British Government had subsidised the construction of the ships for that very purpose. The liners were so fast that no Uboat could catch them so they usually sailed out of convoy. Just two liners could have transported a million troops across the Atlantic in just over 30 return trips.

    Saabdub

    They were intended to leave the convoy when they passed out of the air umbrella of America or Canada and go as fast as they could until they reached the air umbrella operating out from Britain. Without that cover they are travelling unescorted on the run in.

    Best case scenario is they avoid German coast watchers, slip secretly over to a landing area where they offload their men in a dribble via Higgins boats. This means they've to sit stationary in the water for conservatively, an hour with whatever cover their smoke blowers can produce.

    They'll either get sank in any number of different scenarios on the way or while off loading or even if successful abandon 30,000 troops on an enemy shore with very little heavy equipment and frankly, very little chance of any helpful support coming within a meaningful timeframe.

    As we're dealing with the American and not Russian army I'd find it hard to see that plan getting a green light.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,698 ✭✭✭Dinter


    Saabdub wrote: »
    It's surprising but the Western Task Force which consisted of the 2nd armoured and 3rd and 9th infantry divisions, which landed on the Atlantic coast, came directly from the US. See Wikipedia for example http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Torch There was discssion of bringing them to England first but the Americans argued that to take the pressure of 8th Army they might as well just bring them direct to Africa:)
    Saabdub

    Yes but the point that's being made is that you've now got U Boats operating out of Britain as well as Calais.

    Your lines of supply are now across the Atlantic ocean.

    You've got a Luftwaffe that's operating out of Britain and with regards to Torch, Malta.

    You're assaulting a country of no strategic value along supply lines that mean you're armour will never have enough petrol nor your men food.

    You face a formidable Italian and German Navy well supported by shore based aircraft.

    You'll obviously face an army of some sort (Italian probably :rolleyes:) so your landings will be contested.

    You've no real line of retreat.

    I don't think Eisenhower (who delayed D-Day due to bad weather) would authorise that.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 228 ✭✭Saabdub


    Or sail them into the harbour at Casablanca or Suez and offload the troops at the Quays:)

    Saabdub


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,698 ✭✭✭Dinter


    Saabdub wrote: »
    Or sail them into the harbour at Casablanca or Suez and offload the troops at the Quays:)

    Saabdub

    What sort of force would you think appropriate?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 228 ✭✭Saabdub


    Dinter wrote: »
    Yes but the point that's being made is that you've now got U Boats operating out of Britain as well as Calais.

    Your lines of supply are now across the Atlantic ocean.

    You've got a Luftwaffe that's operating out of Britain and with regards to Torch, Malta.

    You're assaulting a country of no strategic value along supply lines that mean you're armour will never have enough petrol nor your men food.

    You face a formidable Italian and German Navy well supported by shore based aircraft.

    You'll obviously face an army of some sort (Italian probably :rolleyes:) so your landings will be contested.

    You've no real line of retreat.

    I don't think Eisenhower (who delayed D-Day due to bad weather) would authorise that.

    Yea, that's fairly close to the historical situation, but you've got advantages. All the oil had to be brought through the Atlantic to Britian anyway. But with the Brits out of the war you don't have to divert any to the UK war production/civilian population and you don't have to feed them either, so the Atlantic convoys can go directly to support your forces on the Atlantic Coast of Africa.

    Will the Italian Fleet sortie out of the Med into the Atlantic to oppose the landings, I don't think so.

    Uboats are only a problem if Germany puts resources behind the building programme (Donitz never had enough boats) and the Bletchley Park Enigma programme has been captured. But they're the first guys I would have sent to the US (probabaly to MIT) if I couldn't stop the Wehrmacht on the beaches!

    Historically the landings in Morocco were only opposed by Vichy French forces, there's no reason to presume that Italians would have been allowed enter former French colonies that were under German protection, espacially as this would have upset Franco.

    And of course Ike wasn't in Supreme Command in '42. It would probabaly have been a Churchill/Roosevelt decision and Churchill loved to go for the soft underbelly:)

    Saabdub


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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,819 ✭✭✭✭peasant


    You seem to forget that pre Pearl Harbour the American public at large and quite a percentage of the leadership was against getting involved in WW2.

    Yes, they felt some moral obligation to SELL aid and material to Britain ...but with Britain wiped off the map in one quick swoop shortly after France, I doubt that the Americans would have had the desire (or political will) to go into a full blown confrontation with a victorious Germany accross the Atlantic.

    The only thing I see them doing is shore up their defences, while desperate to find out what they could SELL to the Germans instead of the Brits :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,698 ✭✭✭Dinter


    Saabdub wrote: »
    Yea, that's fairly close to the historical situation, but you've got advantages. All the oil had to be brought through the Atlantic to Britian anyway. But with the Brits out of the war you don't have to divert any to the UK war production/civilian population and you don't have to feed them either, so the Atlantic convoys can go directly to support your forces on the Atlantic Coast of Africa.


    I’ll agree that there are some advantages but some major disadvantages too. For me the line of supply is just too long. With American industrial might I think I’d be trying a landing into Russia via Alaska. Although difficult logistically you’re landing in friendly territory. Kind of!

    I’d leave my Eastern seaboard open for Germany to invade if they wanted to try it. But that’s a war game for another day! :)

    Saabdub wrote: »
    Will the Italian Fleet sortie out of the Med into the Atlantic to oppose the landings, I don't think so.


    I’m not so sure. They did have a capable and modern navy and would also have aerial cover up top. I would think they would definitely contest the landings.

    Saabdub wrote: »
    Uboats are only a problem if Germany puts resources behind the building programme (Donitz never had enough boats)


    I’m going to have to stick to my guns about German industry. Without the intervention of the Allied bombing campaign I feel it would be well above the “real” 1942 figures.

    Saabdub wrote: »
    Historically the landings in Morocco were only opposed by Vichy French forces, there's no reason to presume that Italians would have been allowed enter former French colonies that were under German protection, especially as this would have upset Franco.


    Oh I agree with that. I would be talking more about a large scale counterattack if the French buckle. I really think Gibraltar in Axis hands would go a long way towards closing off the Med. Therefore there are no landings further up the coast to outflank Axis forces. I think because of overstretched supply lines the Allies would be fixed into static defensive lines and we know how well Rommel deals with them.

    Also Axis air force would be overwhelmingly powerful than anything carrier borne could be. I definitely don’t think they’d respect Moroccan air space

    Saabdub wrote: »
    And of course Ike wasn't in Supreme Command in '42. It would probabaly have been a Churchill/Roosevelt decision and Churchill loved to go for the soft underbelly


    I thought Ike was Commander in Chief of Torch. Anyway sure I’d say Churchill would have been relegated to the same figurehead position of De Gaulle at that stage.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 29,930 ✭✭✭✭TerrorFirmer


    None of those plans would ever work.

    The Luftwaffe would dominate the skies, and in tandem with that, the Kriegsmarine would easily dominate the seas. Not to mention you'd have the support of the Italian airforce and navy, which were respectable and held potential, even if their performance was not.

    Any cross Atlantic invasion force wouldn't even be able to land in any numbers, they'd be sunk before they could offload any substantial amount of supplies or armor.

    Even if there was a successful build up in Africa, breaching Europe would be just as impossible. D-Day and the fighting in Italy were hard enough; imagine those same battles against an enemy with treble the amount of infantry, quadruple the amount of armor, and tenfold aircraft with air and naval superiority - not to mention the support of the Italian army, airforce and navy, whose morale would be sufficient to fight successfully unlike reality, owing to their hugely favorable position in the war. Not to mention their armed forces would probably be equipped with German weapons at this stage. And finally, the difficult terrain. It would be a complete disaster - Ireland would have had a better chance of trying to invade Britain. :D

    As for landing in Russia and working westwards, a much better idea, but probably also doomed to failure. The United states gained experience in Normandy against a broken, largely poorly trained and equipped Germany army. Fighting against a Wehrmacht infinitely more powerful then it had been even at its height in 1941-42, the United states probably be decisively beaten in a war across such a vast landscape.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,387 ✭✭✭✭kowloon


    If only they had listened to Stephen Ambrose! they would have realised all they needed to do was drop a single US parachute infantry company onto the roof of the reichstag and it would have been over by lunchtime

    you may continue with your debate :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,962 ✭✭✭✭Grizzly 45


    With Britan invaded,and the royal family in relative saftey in Canada.Winston Churchill stays on to continue a resistance movement from Scotland in the occupied Uk. Ireland promptly becomes a next target for the 3rd Reich and quickly falls as well.
    Edward the 7th is reinstalled as king,and Mosley s black shirts come to power,so Britan is now amore or less Vichy State as well.
    Remember Hitler was a great admirer of Britan and would have sued for peace once the Germans had a foothold in Britan.
    This now leaves the US in a position of isolation.At this point does FDR run again as president against Jack Kennedy or Charles Lindbergh.Both are known pro Hitler anti Semitic types.
    Assuming either of those got into power,there would have been a peace agreement with Germany in the offing,as the US is still isolationist and a lot of Americans are sympathetic to the German cause. Dec7th 1941 still happens due to the fact the Imperial Japanese army do not have enough raw materials to continue a sustained campain against the US.Again the US fleet is destroyed ,and the carriers survive. This is still enough to push the US onto a war footing against Japan thus waking the sleeping giant. The Pacific war continues pretty much as history had it.
    On the East front Hitler starts Barbrossa with the big push to Moscow.However this time the Germans make it to Moscow,only to find Stalin has fled with the Sov war production capabilities to beyond the Ural mountains.German transport and supply lines are being ripped apart by Russian partisans and the fierce winter.Due to his Lebensraum and ethnic policy,potential allies like the Ukranians,Bellarussians etc are turned against the Germans and continue to make life Hell for the German occupied forces.Spring finds the German army in a pretty over streched state not able to hold the vast terrority conquerd.They retreat and consoloidate their lines along a front stretching from Vilnus down to Rostov on Don as the next swing has to be into thre trans caucassus for oil.The oil fields will decide the fate of both the Red and German armies.Who holds these has fuel for their armies.
    In Africa.Rommel is facing a problem again of over stretched supply lines.Egypt must be taken then onto Iraq,for the oil as well as pushing up to join with the German armies going South from Georgia and Azerbajan.

    On the US side the Japenese are desperately working to develop a nuke device,they are in direct competition with the US.Germany has seen no great need for such and are only pottering around with this experimentally[historical fact].The heavy water is needed but a reactor pile is not considerd at all. The US wins this race as they have the better brains on this than Japan.The Bomb is used on Japan and effectively ends Japan as a participant.This then frees the British colonies under Jap rule to re construct,re group andstart planning a liberation attempt.While the US has the A bomb it is still no great threat to Hitler,as the US has no trans continental bombers.However Jack Northop is working on the flying wing bomber that would have had the range of east coast US to Berlin and back.Howard Hughes is as well working on air to air refuelling,as are the first prototype jet engines beginning to appear in the US as well.
    At this stage V2 has become a reality,but it is still incapable of reaching The USA. The bomb has frightend Hitler to the point that a crash course is started in Germany with the intention to develop it in time to be operational in 1946 along with the New York bomber.the German flying wing.the Germans are too far behind to catch up.However president Lindbergh and Hitler form asecret nonaggression pact,and swop technology info so Hitler can use the bomb on Russia.It is in both Lbergh and Hitlers intrest to rid Stalin from the planet. The bomb is used against Stalin who was desperatly trying to develop his own.The post world powers are Germany and the USA.However it is not any peaceful in the greater reich.the British are still picking gureilla war fights with enslaved pouplations against the Germans from their colonies and occupied UK.
    Situation gets so bad that the Germans are required to give more of these countries more and more autonomy again.

    "If you want to keep someone away from your house, Just fire the shotgun through the door."

    Vice President [and former lawyer] Joe Biden Field& Stream Magazine interview Feb 2013 "



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,355 ✭✭✭Belfast


    the_syco wrote: »
    I'd say if Japan attacked attacked the USA, I'd say they'd still nuke 'em. And with a working bomb, why stop there? Bomb, I don't know, Germany, and any ceasefire would be to the allies favour.

    The Americans had only 3 Atomic bombs in 1945 and these were made using mostly captured German U235.


  • Registered Users Posts: 24,009 ✭✭✭✭ejmaztec


    Grizzly 45 wrote: »
    With Britan invaded,and the royal family in relative saftey in Canada.Winston Churchill stays on to continue a resistance movement from Scotland in the occupied Uk. Ireland promptly becomes a next target for the 3rd Reich and quickly falls as well.
    Edward the 7th is reinstalled as king,and Mosley s black shirts come to power,so Britan is now amore or less Vichy State as well.
    Remember Hitler was a great admirer of Britan and would have sued for peace once the Germans had a foothold in Britan.
    This now leaves the US in a position of isolation.At this point does FDR run again as president against Jack Kennedy or Charles Lindbergh.Both are known pro Hitler anti Semitic types.
    Assuming either of those got into power,there would have been a peace agreement with Germany in the offing,as the US is still isolationist and a lot of Americans are sympathetic to the German cause. Dec7th 1941 still happens due to the fact the Imperial Japanese army do not have enough raw materials to continue a sustained campain against the US.Again the US fleet is destroyed ,and the carriers survive. This is still enough to push the US onto a war footing against Japan thus waking the sleeping giant. The Pacific war continues pretty much as history had it.
    On the East front Hitler starts Barbrossa with the big push to Moscow.However this time the Germans make it to Moscow,only to find Stalin has fled with the Sov war production capabilities to beyond the Ural mountains.German transport and supply lines are being ripped apart by Russian partisans and the fierce winter.Due to his Lebensraum and ethnic policy,potential allies like the Ukranians,Bellarussians etc are turned against the Germans and continue to make life Hell for the German occupied forces.Spring finds the German army in a pretty over streched state not able to hold the vast terrority conquerd.They retreat and consoloidate their lines along a front stretching from Vilnus down to Rostov on Don as the next swing has to be into thre trans caucassus for oil.The oil fields will decide the fate of both the Red and German armies.Who holds these has fuel for their armies.
    In Africa.Rommel is facing a problem again of over stretched supply lines.Egypt must be taken then onto Iraq,for the oil as well as pushing up to join with the German armies going South from Georgia and Azerbajan.

    On the US side the Japenese are desperately working to develop a nuke device,they are in direct competition with the US.Germany has seen no great need for such and are only pottering around with this experimentally[historical fact].The heavy water is needed but a reactor pile is not considerd at all. The US wins this race as they have the better brains on this than Japan.The Bomb is used on Japan and effectively ends Japan as a participant.This then frees the British colonies under Jap rule to re construct,re group andstart planning a liberation attempt.While the US has the A bomb it is still no great threat to Hitler,as the US has no trans continental bombers.However Jack Northop is working on the flying wing bomber that would have had the range of east coast US to Berlin and back.Howard Hughes is as well working on air to air refuelling,as are the first prototype jet engines beginning to appear in the US as well.
    At this stage V2 has become a reality,but it is still incapable of reaching The USA. The bomb has frightend Hitler to the point that a crash course is started in Germany with the intention to develop it in time to be operational in 1946 along with the New York bomber.the German flying wing.the Germans are too far behind to catch up.However president Lindbergh and Hitler form asecret nonaggression pact,and swop technology info so Hitler can use the bomb on Russia.It is in both Lbergh and Hitlers intrest to rid Stalin from the planet. The bomb is used against Stalin who was desperatly trying to develop his own.The post world powers are Germany and the USA.However it is not any peaceful in the greater reich.the British are still picking gureilla war fights with enslaved pouplations against the Germans from their colonies and occupied UK.
    Situation gets so bad that the Germans are required to give more of these countries more and more autonomy again.

    Excuse my ignorance, but who is Rommel fighting in North Africa and the middle-east in your scenario?

    oops, just saw your geurillas in the mist - but Rommel wouldn't be wasted on these people, would he?


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