April Temperature Forecast/Analysis.

Paddy.1

Sorry for opening this one a bit late. I have yet to do up April Means and all that but will have charts up later on. Longfield, Could you post this month's questions up here or pm me with them so I can kick April's forecast off. I will leave all folk to decide their answers up to the 3rd of April because of the delay. Will also do up a chart of all the "Winners" from the march thread later also.

Mothman

Overall mean April temperature for 12 stations (the usual 13 minus Claremorris) this decade.
2000 7.5C
01 8.2C
02 9.1C
03 10.0C
04 9.2C
05 8.8C
06 8.6C
07 11.1C

2007 stands out as the mean is more than one degree higher than next highest, which is 10.0C in 2003 and 1997.
2007 was the warmest on record at all stations bar Valentia.
2000 was coldest since 1989 and the coldest since the 60s is 5.9C in 1986

M.T. Cranium

I will say 9.4 which is probably too high, just like me.

Paddy.1

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I will say 9.4 which is probably too high, just like me.

The April 61-90 Overall Mean for the main 13 synoptic stations is 8.0°C.

So if anyone would like to have a shot at guessing how April 2008 will pan out with regards temperature, now is the time to 'give it a go'. Good luck to everyone who has a shot.

kindredspirit

I don't seem to be doing very well at this.:o

But here goes for April: 9.0°

nacho libre

I will say 8.7

The Temperature in Mullingar on the 23rd will be 16.1

Wind speed, in knots, will be 6.9 on the 25th

rc28

8.8c

Danno

Any other trivia or bonus points?

Weather BOFH

May as well clean this up a bit!

1) 8.2C
2) 18.6C
3) -2.4C
4) 17.3C
5) 5 Kts

gurramok

8.6C then

Max 15.4C on 23rd and Wind speed 7.4 on 25th

Paddy.1

Will give it a go myself, I thinking a fairly changable month that will bring some wide temp variations.

8.6c. slightly warmer than average.

Snowbie

Will think warm spring like sunshine will eventually take over in the second half of the month.

9.0c

squonk

8.7 for me

Supercell

Sorry Paddy, I kept meaning to do this.

Ok bonus questions are based around Punchestown National Hunt Festival this month, closest station I can see is Mullingar so here goes:-

On Gold Cup day (23rd) what will the Maximum Temperature be in Mullingar?
On Champion Hurdle day (25th) what will the mean wind speed be in knots in Mullingar?

Mothman

Longfield wrote: »

Sorry Paddy, I kept meaning to do this.

Ok bonus questions are based around Punchestown National Hunt Festival this month, closest station I can see is Mullingar so here goes:-

On Gold Cup day (23rd) what will the Maximum Temperature be in Mullingar?
On Champion Hurdle day (25th) what will the mean wind speed be in knots in Mullingar?

And to help (or not) folks with answers. Here are some stats

Yearly figures from Monthly Weather Bulletin and averages from Met Eireann website

Mean max and overall max temp in April at Mullingar.
1961-1990 11.8 22.6
2000 10.6 16.6
01 11.5 13.7
02 12.5 17.7
03 13.9 21.6
04 12.6 17.4
05 12.3 17.0
06 12.5 16.8
07 15.7 20.6

And mean wind speed at Mullingar in April (Kts)
1961-1990 8.5
2000 6.5
01 7.2
02 8.1
03 7.1
04 7.4
05 7.6
06 6.8
07 5.5

kindredspirit

Can't find an edit button on my post

so 23rd of April, 15°C

25th of April, 9 knots.

Trogdor

Just to confirm Lonfield,
Are we guessing the mean temp, max temp at any station and min temp at any station, and then the 2 bonus questions as well?



EDIT: And the overall Irish mean for April 08 up to midnight last night is 10.2C

Supercell

Yep in a nutshell

1) Monthly mean
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific)
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific)
4) On Gold Cup day (23rd) what will the Maximum Temperature be in Mullingar?
5) On Champion Hurdle day (25th) what will the mean wind speed be in knots in Mullingar?

Supercell

1) 10.1
2) 18.7
3) -2.1
4) 15.1
5) 6.9

Snowbie

1) Monthly mean 9.0c
2) 17.9c
3) -2.2
4) 17.1c
5) 4 knots

rc28

Missed the bonus questions so will now give my guesses;
1)8.8c
2)19.1c
3)-2.5c
4)16.5c
5)3 Knots

Paddy.1

1)8.6
2)18.2c
3)-3.1c
4)16.9c
5)19kn


Edit: Changed lowest min forcast from an optimistic 4.1 to -3.1.

Supercell

kindredspirit wrote: »

I don't seem to be doing very well at this.:o

But here goes for April: 9.0°

Not the only one, I wuz robbed!
Still a long way to got yet, plenty of time to move up the table.

kindredspirit

1) Monthly mean…………………..9.0°C
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific)……….20.0°C
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific)……..minus -1.2°C
4) On Gold Cup day (23rd) what will the Maximum Temperature be in Mullingar?…..15°C
5) On Champion Hurdle day (25th) what will the mean wind speed be in knots in Mullingar?…….4.5 knots. (Ignore my earlier forecast, I wasn’t thinking)
__________________

DOCARCH

1) 9.2c
2) 20.8c
3) -2.3c
4) 15.2c
5) 13 knots

Mothman

trogdor wrote: »

Just to confirm Longfield,
Are we guessing the mean temp, max temp at any station and min temp at any station, and then the 2 bonus questions as well?

Didn't realise that, otherwise I would have given stats
Overall Max/min at Synoptic stations this decade

2000 18.7 -4.7
01 15.5 -2.0
02 19.5 -3.3
03 24.4 -4.0
04 18.1 -1.5
05 18.6 -1.6
06 17.4 -4.5
07 22.2 -1.7

Overall low from last 50 years or so -5.5C at Casement in 1998
Overall high is that 24.4C at Belmullet 2003, the highest temp of year at the station, and the highest since July 2000 and not bettered again till 24.5C on 4th Sept 2005

Trogdor

1) 7.9c
2) 18.5c
3) -4.1c
4) 13.6c
5) 7.2 knots
Thanks for all the stats Mothman:)

Mothman

I've worked it so that I'm not starting a new daily max min chart. Also I've added a 30 day running mean. Is too cluttered to include figures, but the 30 day mean went from 6.30C yesterday to 6.57C today.

ch750536

Yep in a nutshell

1) Monthly mean
8.6

2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific)
19.8

3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific)
-3.2

4) On Gold Cup day (23rd) what will the Maximum Temperature be in Mullingar?
15

5) On Champion Hurdle day (25th) what will the mean wind speed be in knots in Mullingar?
6.8

nacho libre

(1) Monthly mean
8.7

(2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific)
19.2

(3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific)
-3.9

(4) The Temperature in Mullingar on the 23rd will be 16.1

(5) Wind speed, in knots, will be 6.9 on the 25th

Danno

1) Monthly mean 8.5c
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 22.3c
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) -4.7c
4) On Gold Cup day (23rd) what will the Maximum Temperature be in Mullingar? 13.8c
5) On Champion Hurdle day (25th) what will the mean wind speed be in knots in Mullingar? 8kt

Hope I'm not too late lads. Busy at work. Thursday nights are late ones.

Supercell

Jaysus i didn't realise I was so far up warm!, La Nina conditions...cold April, warm summer..gonna be interesting.
Might want to adjust chart title though

Trogdor

Overall Irish Mean for April is up to 11.1C up to midnight last night which is 3.1C above normal. Longfield, you are actually a degree to cold:p. Setting up for a big fall.

Supercell

I'm confidant, April may start cold but the temperature should ramp up fast during the second half of the month normally.

Paddy.1

Longfield wrote: »

Jaysus i didn't realise I was so far up warm!, La Nina conditions...cold April, warm summer..gonna be interesting.
Might want to adjust chart title though

Careful!! La Nina has F** all to do with weather on this side of the world. Cold april does not necessarily mean warm summer..;)

Just noticed mistake, will tidy up later. And Danno, your in. I am happy that my own prediction is close to your own, given your record the last couple of months.

Danno

I was gonna go with 8.6c, but several people have it, so to be unique I called 8.5c. To be specific, I predict 8.56c!* - Don't ask me why I arrive at this figure. If I am right, I am going after the lotto numbers next!!!

I think that a warm spell in the last week will counter-act any cold gains made next week, thus my 22.3c - I also have a feeling that Valentia will capture this max of the month! :eek:

* Not my official prediction because 8.5c covers the range of 8.45c to 8.54c.

Paddy.1

OK, very final updated April 08 mean forecast chart:



Once again, thanks to everyone who gave it a shot, and the best of luck to all!!.

Just thought I would post up this chart again for the 1st of April 1917, the coldest April of the 20th century:



Not that it is anything remotely like the current set up or anything..:cool:

Paddy.1

Mothman mentioned the other day that April 1986 was the coldest April in recent memory. Indeed it was. Here is the trend chart of the daily means of that month, with the 61-90 average included for comparrison:



The overall mean finished off at 6.2c, which is almost 2.0c below average.

Extracts from Met Eireann's summary:

"April 1986 was the coldest since the foundation of the State in 1922. Although the month ended on a fairly warm note and sunny note, during the month temperatures were more like a typical late February or early March than an average April.

"The problem was that winds from the north, northwest and northeast were more frequent than usual for this time of year, and kept both daytime and nightime temperatures well below normal. These northerly winds also made the northern half of the country a much wetter place during April than the southern half.

"Hail showers were fairly frequent while snow and sleet fell on a number of days during the first half of the month. There were thunderstorms on the 22nd."

Part of the very cold year of 1986, the following summer turned out to be quite cool also, but with plenty of thunderstorms!!:)

Supercell

Nice research Paddy, I remember it well and wondered if the next Ice Age was coming ...

It didnt and I'm a AGW fan these days as seems to be most here with only one person predicting below the average..

M.T. Cranium

Already mentioned the wild guess of 9.4 C for the month, should pass that on the way down later today. Will you see it again? Possibly. In May. Or June.

Highest of month, 19.8 C

Lowest of month, -5.2 C

High at Mullingar on 23rd about 16.8 C

Average wind speed on 25th about 10.5 knots

_______________________________________________

NOTE: Due to cosmic confusion, winter is now spring, spring is now winter, summer is now autumn, and autumn is more autumn.

Mothman

Uploading graphs to new page.

Paddy.1

Overall mean up to midnight 7th equates to 8.2°C. Coolest in the North-Eastern half of the country.

Mean rainfall this April up to and including the 7th stands at 8.2mm, which is 14.1% of normal. Wettest in the West and North at this point.

Info courtesy of Met Eireann

Weather BOFH

Thanks for all the stats Paddy and Mothman, now if only it would stay at 8.2C for the rest of the month

Paddy.1

Some Overall Means from Aprils past:



A moody month.

Danno

Funny how 1998 was the warmest year on record and out of the Aprils you chose to sample it was the coldest one of them!!!

Paddy.1

There is a lot of data missing today from stations around the country. From the information that is available, and with some assumptions, the overall mean is approximatley 7.9c. Now below average, and in line with Trodgar's guess. The first time this month that the deviation has fallen below average at -0.2c.

Brief reminder of predictions:

Trogdor

Paddy.1 wrote: »

There is a lot of data missing today from stations around the country. From the information that is available, and with some assumptions, the overall mean is approximatley 7.9c. Now below average, and in line with Trodgor's guess. The first time this month that the deviation has fallen below average at -0.2c.

Brief reminder of predictions:

A lot of data missing again, but mean is probably around 7.7C

Mothman

With Clones, Kilkenny, Rosslare closed, we're kind starting from scratch again.

Of the so called replacements,
Ballyhaise, Oak Park, Johnstown Castle, only the latter features in the Monthly Weather Bulletins. I assume the first 2 will be added in January issue. I've just received the December copy.

Mothman

Graphs updated at top of page.

Clones, Kilkenny and Rosslare removed from rain graphs.

Ulster is now represented by Malin Head alone.

The max/min graph is now from 14 stations. I'll amend the legend.

Paddy.1

Mothman wrote: »

Graphs updated at top of page.

Clones, Kilkenny and Rosslare removed from rain graphs.

.

MM. if we cannot use data from these stations anymore, is there long term averages for the competition available for Johnstown Castle/Oak Park and the other one near Clones that we can use in substitute for the closing of these stations? If not, I think we will have to assume the averages from the original stations in relation to new data. On another note, there is now huge gaps geographically on data even with the competition, Mildlands and southeast, as well as the west, now severely unrepresented.

Mothman

I have Johnstown temp and rain means and rain means for Oak Park and Ballyhaise.
Oak park opened 1967 and Ballyhaise in 1932
I'd be hopeful that Met Eireann will upload them into the monthly section, though may take weeks rather than days.

I'll upload a table with the data I have sometime.