Cheltenham Day 4

mike65

Its been raining for a few hours and will be doing so on and off this evening, so the going will probably be fined tuned to soft/good and soft in parts, tomorrow should be mainly dry and cloudy all day with just a very light wind so little room for drying effect.

Mike.

hippychippy

For what its worth my selections for tomorrow are as follows
12.30 Chomba Womba
1.05 Group Captain
1.40 Song of Songs
2.15 Franchoek
2.50 Uncle Junior
3.30 Kauto Star nap nap nap
4.05 Lord of Illusion
4.40 Howle Hill
5.20 Wanango

Colonel Sanders

Sweet Kiln a great each way bet at 4/1 (Celtic Bookmakers going 4/1). Probably my only bet tomorrow unless I decide to have a small bet on Aigle D'or

applehunter

Trafford Lad.

Great run at Naas that puts him as leading contender.

Can't have PaddythePlasterer at the price. Plus I dont think the form is that solid.

DSB

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Sweet Kiln a great each way bet at 4/1 (Celtic Bookmakers going 4/1). Probably my only bet tomorrow unless I decide to have a small bet on Aigle D'or

4/1 is terrible each way odds in fairness.

cson

DSB wrote: »

4/1 is terrible each way odds in fairness.

Its not really to be honest. Paddy Power are paying 1/4 odds on all races at Cheltenham so therefore backing if Sweet Kiln even only places, you will get your money back. Its an insurance type of bet. If I'm ever having an e/w bet the lowest price I will back at is the corresponding place odds - 5/1 for races with 1/5 and 4/1 with 1/4.

bohsman

My head says avoid the Gold Cup and just enjoy the race, the gambler in me says Kauto Star so Ive lumped on. The rent doesnt pay itself.

mdwexford

bohsman wrote: »

My head says avoid the Gold Cup and just enjoy the race, the gambler in me says Kauto Star so Ive lumped on. The rent doesnt pay itself.

Good decision sir

RichieLawlor

I think Franchoek is bomb-proof, but as ive said before Group Captain will be my biggest bet of the week

hippychippy

Anyone anything to say about the other 8 races on tomorrow??

opr

cson wrote: »

Its not really to be honest. Paddy Power are paying 1/4 odds on all races at Cheltenham so therefore backing if Sweet Kiln even only places, you will get your money back. Its an insurance type of bet. If I'm ever having an e/w bet the lowest price I will back at is the corresponding place odds - 5/1 for races with 1/5 and 4/1 with 1/4.

When you say its an insurance type of bet thats rubbish. Its a totally separate bet to the win and should not be looked at like that.

Its really a second bet on a place and i am not an expert but i really don't think that even money in a pretty competitive race with 13 runners and only 3 places is good value.

Opr

mdwexford

Each way betting on a 4/1 makes complete sense, its not like you can back place only in a betting shop like on Betfair. If the horse is a cetainty to be bang there but something might just do it then backing it ew practically gives you a free win bet on it.

I generally dont back win only if the horse is 7/2 or bigger.

cson

mdwexford wrote: »

If the horse is a cetainty to be bang there but something might just do it then backing it ew practically gives you a free win bet on it.

Basically the point I'm trying to make.

Then again, a lot of people here just don't understand that price and value are two entirely different things. And 4/1 for Sweet Kiln tomorrow represents good e/w value for me.

cson

RichieLawlor wrote: »

I think Franchoek is bomb-proof, but as ive said before Group Captain will be my biggest bet of the week

Im leaning towards Aigle D'Or in the Ballymore, although the Henderson yard isn't having a good Cheltenham thus far.

opr

mdwexford wrote: »

Each way betting on a 4/1 makes complete sense

This only works out mathimatically correct in certain conditions.

For the few poker player's that i see frequent this forum. How can you resist a bet on Hold'em tommorow in the 2nd.
I actually think he is not without a chance and he has shortened over the last few days with most bookie's.

Opr

Mimikyu

This post has been deleted.

RichieLawlor

cson wrote: »

Im leaning towards Aigle D'Or in the JCB, although the Henderson yard isn't having a good Cheltenham thus far.

Ill lay you any price you like on Aigle D'or in the JCB triumph hurdle, if he wins that ill never back another horse in my life

DSB

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Ill lay you any price you like on Aigle D'or in the JCB triumph hurdle, if he wins that ill never back another horse in my life

You will really though.

RichieLawlor

DSB wrote: »

You will really though.

i will NEVER back another horse in my life, here it is in black and white, if Aigle D'or wins the JCB

cson

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Ill lay you any price you like on Aigle D'or in the JCB triumph hurdle, if he wins that ill never back another horse in my life

I don't expect Aigle D'Or to win but I do expect he'll run into a place in the novice hurdle.

By all accounts Franchoek should hack up in the JCB but I'm reluctant to get involved at 6/4.

RichieLawlor

cson wrote: »

I don't expect Aigle D'Or to win but I do expect he'll run into a place. By all accounts Franchoek should hack up but I'm reluctant to get involved at 6/4.

Are you takin the piss

cson

Most certainly not. Aigle D'Or ticks most of the trends for this race - Won his previous outing (At Cheltenham), is aged 5, is in the first 6 betting. Defintely going to be one of my bets tomorrow.

Each to their own though.

mdwexford

I cant take it anymore, hes not running in the JCB Triumph Hurdle!!!!

cson

Good lord. I'm only after realising. The Triumph Hurdle indeed

He'll do extremely well to win that, but he could have a a chance in the Novice Hurdle

mdwexford

Ok my selections for tomorrow

12.30 - Labelthou (e/w) 8/1
1.05 - Group Captain (e/w) 5/1
1.40 - Pablo Du Charmil (e/w) 18/1
2.15 - Celestial Halo (e/w) - 5/1
3.15 - Kauto Star
3.15 - Exotic Dancer (betting w/o top 2)
5.20 - I'msingingtheblues (e/w) - 12/1

Lay
Sweet Kiln - 4.6
Forpadydeplasterer - 6.3
Halcon Genelardais - place lay 3.9

Colonel Sanders

franchoek is a worthy fav in the triumph but 6/4 is skinny.

halcon genlardais is being tipped by a lot of the pseudo shrewides but 16/1 is terrible value in the gold cup. Can't see a one paced soft ground plodder being placed against 3 of the finest staying chasers of modern times. decent value place lay at under 3/1 on betfair.

I think Kauto is a better horse than Denman but meets him on Denman's terms tomorrow. I cannot wait for this but will probably keep my cash in my pocket. The magic sign are really sticking their neck out on Denamn, 2/1 on oddschecker. Next best price among the usual suspects is only 13/8 (altho he is 2.94 on the 'fair). Celtic also 2/1 Denman and are guaranteeing prices.

Big day for tom doyle tomorrow, on Trafford lad and Sweet Kiln. Hopefully he's up to the job altho I think Trafford lad is too slow for the Ballymore. Would be a max bet in the 3 miler. If aigle d'or doesn't win the ballymore I hope forpadydeplasterer does, and the reasoning behind his name is explained to the media, thus exposing our little tinpot banana republic for the sad, pathetic joke it truly is.

Best of luck all, happy punting and enjoy the race of the decade.

Colonel Sanders

cson wrote: »

Im leaning towards Aigle D'Or in the Ballymore, although the Henderson yard isn't having a good Cheltenham thus far.

Barber shop ran a great race today but ran into a well handicapped Irish Raider.

pyure

not doing anything fancy for tomorrow - gonna blow my winnings (a mighty 25quid!) on two 20p e/w lucky 31 bets

Selection 1 (with the head)
2:15 Celestial Halo 4/1
2:50 The Tother One 11/2
4:05 Lou Du Moulin Mas 8/1
4:40 Tiger Cry 8/1
5:20 Psycho 5/1

Selection 2 (with the heart)
12.30: Silver Charmer 66/1
1.05: Razor Royale 28/1
4.05: Railway Ranger 25/1
4.40: Magic Sky 40/1
5.20: King’s Revenge 33/1

at worst ill break even, at best it'll be an excellent paddys weekend
wish me luck!

RichieLawlor

Ok my selections for tomorrow

12.30 - Refinement (e/w) 8/1
1.05 - Group Captain NAP 5/1
1.40 - Naid du Misselet (e/w) 8/1
2.15 - Franchoek - 6/4
3.15 - Kauto Star
4.40 - Hasty Prince (e/w) 10/1
5.20 - I'msingingtheblues (e/w) - 12/1

Lay
Denman

LegacyUser

Is that Money Back Special IN PP Def On?? If your horse falls, beseated or is pulled down then you will get your money back

careca

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Sweet Kiln a great each way bet at 4/1 (Celtic Bookmakers going 4/1). Probably my only bet tomorrow unless I decide to have a small bet on Aigle D'or

Colonel, take this with as much salt as you need, but I heard from a good source that Sweet Kiln did not travel over well and to avoid him. This could be pure crap but just passing it on.

careca

Ew double

Aigle D'or and Song of Songs

Chomba Womba in the first.

Would like to say I won't have a bet in Gold Cup but with a few pints I'll probably sow into Kauto.

smokingman

Lablethou 8/1 ew
Aigle Dor 5/1 ew
Kicks for free 12/1 ew
Beau Michael 10/1 ew
The Tother one 5/1 ew
Exotic Dancer 10/1 ew

...and that's my budget spent....

mike65

A few suggestions - 2.50 Middleton Dene 20/1 this one is quietly fancied esp as the ground softens and certainly worth an e/w punt.

Gold Cup - Afistfullofdollars - 26/1 shot (AND TIGHTENING QUICKLY). It won't win unless Act of God occurs but its probably the best of the rest as an e/w. And someone has to finish third.

4.05 Natiain - Scottish nag of huge build and ever improving form over jumps with four wins and two seconds in hunter chases. 20/1

Mike.

marco_polo

Start off the day conservatively with a small e/w on Refinement I think

Jollyman

Labelthou i hope, my server went down so i have backed him twice by mistake!!! :eek:

johnnysmurfman

Carruthers is my absolute nap of the Festival. They have entered him in a race that'll take little or no winning and he looks like an absolute steal at 9/2 with Boyles who are giving you a chance to get your money back if Kauto and Denman finish first and second.

ninebeanrows

Poor old Chump lost his heart so i will continue forth........


1230 David Nicholson Mares Only Hurdle (2m 4f 110y) Refinement & White Oak -- both e/w
1305 Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle (2m 5f) Whatuthink e/w
1340 Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle) (2m 5f)* Take your mark e/w
1415 JCB Triumph Hurdle (2m 1f)* Personal Column
1450 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (3m)* Gem Daly
1530 totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup (3m 2f 110y)* Afistfullofdollars e/w
1605 Christie's Foxhunter Chase (3m 2f 110y)Lou Du Moulin Mas
1640 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase (2m 110y)
1720 Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle (2m 1f)

ninebeanrows

sweet:D

m.j.w

Weathercheck wrote: »

sweet:D

Ya couldnt have started in better there. Nice one

blahblah06

what was the result

ninebeanrows

blahblah06 wrote: »

what was the result

1st (12) Whiteoak 20/1
2nd (4) Refinement 10/1
3rd (2) Chomba Womba 3/1

blahblah06

haha well done on the 1, 2 mate. i got the place on refinement.

The Hill Billy

Rollup in Boozer
12:30 Chomba Womba
01:05 Group Captain
01:40 Naiad Du Misselot
02:15 Franchoek (Nap)
02:50 Gone To Lunch
03:30 Kauto Star
04:05 Lou Du Moulin Mas
04:40 Howle Hill
05:20 Psycho

Bets
12:30 Silver Charmer e/w @ 66/1
01:05 Razor Royale e/w @ 25/1
04:40 Magic Sky e/w @ 40/1

Lucky 31 e/w
12:30 Chomba Womba
01:05 Group Captain
02:50 Gone To Lunch
04:05 Lou Du Moulin Mas
05:20 Psycho

blahblah06

god that was a close 2nd for refinement

shrapnel222

did a treble today, other than trainbairn betting

frankchoek
kauto star
exotic dancer w/o kauto,denman

and group captain to win the 105

mike65

Stuck 3 small e/w on Trafford Lad Hold Em and Razor Royale

Mike.

blahblah06

what happened Aigle D'or ??? lol

bassy

came last.

blahblah06 wrote: »

what happened Aigle D'or ??? lol

kenco

Fivefourthree
Venelmar
Trafford Lad
I think Paddythe plasterer was 4th

Aigle D'or under pressure from around the 3rd out

mike65

Covered my ass there.

Mike.