Last Years Cheltenham Tipster

Heisenberg.

This post has been deleted.

concobhar

The Scientist wrote: »

Aright guys,
Back for my 1 week spell in the Horse Racing forum!
Anyone remember the name & where to find the tipster who freakishly tipped 6 or 7 winnners in Cheltenham Days 1, 2 & 3 last year?
I think he posted on the expert betting advice forum...
He made me nice monies last year so i needs to find him!

Trainbairn is his name. Doubt lightning will strike twice though.

Heisenberg.

This post has been deleted.

shrapnel222

LOL. i've been keeping an eye out on this forum for him too for next week!:D

concobhar

The Scientist wrote: »

It struck a house in Connaught 5 times the other day!

Thats the guy alright, i must watch out for his thread this year.

well .. here's hoping!

Your namesake .. sort of .. What A Scientist running at the 3:30 in Exeter ... if he wins today then everything is possible!

siobhan.murphy

Im hoping to turn cheltenham over this year!
but I need winners!:D

siobhan.murphy

I think he needs to get back to the lab to review that race!:rolleyes:
ballygally bob some horse!

chump

http://www.expertbettingadvice.co.uk/forum/thread29992.html

Steve G Steve G is offline
Senior Member

Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 895
Question Calling Trainbairn
Steven, will you be doing your Cheltenham write-ups again this year? Really hope you do. Last year was just incredible. Can't expect that every year, but it was the way you went about justifying your selections that was fascinating.

response posted yesterday

Trainbairn Trainbairn is offline
Senior Member

Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 2,117
Default
Yes, The Thesis will be making a reappearence this year.

keep an eye out

another good thread

http://www.expertbettingadvice.co.uk/forum/thread29981.html

bassy

http://www.expertbettingadvice.co.uk/forum/thread29312.html

he must have a nice few quid put aside for cheltenham at this stage

concobhar

had a look there this morning .. no sign of his tips. wonder if he is shunning the celeb status :-)

mike65

http://www.expertbettingadvice.co.uk/forum/post174638-2.html

Mike.

Heisenberg.

This post has been deleted.

mike65

What x return did he get you last year?

Mike.

Cyrus

will ye post em up here lads, blocked at work

Mountjoy Mugger

Blocked at work here too. Are we all working in the same place?

c - 13

I thought last year he never posted his tips until the morning of the races ?

mdwexford

Racing Post and At The Races video form is free folks, pick your own winners you lazy gits!!!!

BangBeater

mdwexford wrote: »

Racing Post and At The Races video form is free folks, pick your own winners you lazy gits!!!!

Yes, it truly is a lazy way out...!!

mccarte2

He usually posted either very late at night or early in the morning. I dont know what % return he had last year but on Tuesday he tipped Ebaziyan and Sublimity. On Wednesday, Messini Maguire and Voy Por Ustedes. And I think he had 2 winners on Thursday (including Inglis Drever). Ran out of luck on Friday from what I remember.

RasTa

He made me four figures last year, my biggest win ever and I rarely bet. That 100/1 horse was gas at the end of the first or second day last year. I'll be following him tomorrow to see if it can happen again.

jimmyboy

mike65 wrote: »

What x return did he get you last year?

Mike.

FRom what i remember it was something like +69 to a 1point stake on each

BillyBoy

Looks likes he's working on it

http://www.expertbettingadvice.co.uk/forum/showthread.php?p=175016#post175016

Degag

The Cheltenham Thesis returns

---

Is it really a year already since last year's Cheltenham Festival? Where has the time gone?. Whilst it is unlikely that I can match last year's results as there are more races this year where I don't see the quality or the value I would still expect to get four winners from the twenty five races,even if I won't be betting on the Gold Cup.After all, why bother betting when the battle between the main two gladiators will be enjoyment enough.

2.00 Supreme Novices Hurdle


When you consider that last season we had a favourite for this race who went off at around the 2/1 mark, it shows that we have a bunch of novice hurdlers that are all within a few pounds of each other when the bookies are going 7/1 the field for this year’s renewal. The indication I get from that is that there is no superstar awaiting in the field but even still there has to be a winner and I am sure that there is still plenty of value in this race and backing one in particular at a nice double figure price should help get the meeting off to a tremendous start.

First of all let’s start by looking at the ones I can’t have on my radar first, based around a mixture of stats and form lines. I can’t have the Paul Nicholls 1st string Rippling Ring at any price. Yes, he passes the stat test as a lightly(less than three runs over hurdles) raced hurdler and he is the right age but I can’t have a horse who won a Novice hurdle from a winner of a seller on the Flat and whom the 5th home won a Selling Handicap next time out as being good enough to contest in such a race as this and I can’t see him even placing to be honest. So having knocked him out of the field, we can also disregard Muirhead from the reckoning as well. After all, doesn’t Noel Meade every year say the same thing about his current star novice hurdler being the “best I have ever trained” and yet he hasn’t been anywhere near as ebullient as he usually does about this one. Whilst his absence of 100 days can partly be explained by the Meade stable being shut down for a period because of a loss of form and illness in the yard, I would still have preferred to have seen some confidence from the trainer before parting with my hard earned dough. Also, the trainer has a pretty awful record with Novice’s round here at the Festival so again, he can be opposed readily at the prices currently available in the village.

Captain Cee Bee could be anything ,having been kept back for this by his trainer, however I find it crazy that if A P McCoy had been given a choice between this one and Nicky Henderson’s Binocular that he wouldn’t choose this one
Instead.Fails the stats test on age as he is a year too old for most previous winners but whereas the other two are definite oppose material I would not get too involved either way with this one. If he wins I might feel a tad pissed off not having backed him but will just remember that there are 24 raced left to get the profit I would have done backing Captain Cee Bee in the first. Also cant have Binocular as this looks an afterthought and the yard have multiple entries in the race which indicates to me that they don’t have one star and are being scattergun in their approach to see if one of the darts hits the bulls eye. This is also the reason why I wont be betting Khyber Kim( fails on the last time out win stats) or Sentry Duty(trainer doesn’t do well in this race).


So, having had so many negatives in the race, what have I decided to back here?. Despite being against Rippling Ring, I do feel that trainer Paul Nicholls does actually target this race nowadays with at least one of his better novice hurdles that will go on to make a cracking chaser in time, and with that in mind I have to back his supposed 2nd string Pasco who is still available at 16/1 which is cracking each value in my opinion. Having watched his thee runs in the UK so far he looks like a horse who has improved with each run(and with racing as well) and jumped the best he has done so far on his last run. Yes, the form of that win might well be nothing special but this race is a little bit down on the normal standard of a Supreme Novices in my opinion and his form stands up to as much inspection as the rest of them and yet is almost double the price of the main protagonists. Won’t mind it of the ground rides on the good to soft side for the first tomorrow and I see him in the same vein as Noland and Granit Jack who was 2nd for the stable last year. Anyone remember what won last year’s race lol?. So ,with a 1pt e/w bet on him at 16/1 that would appear to be my only bet for that race to get the greatest sporting event in the world off to a winning start.


2.35 Arkle Trophy


Another race where I have to oppose the short priced favourite in Noland. The reasons being quite simple. I can see his jumping being too over exuberant for Cheltenham’s stiff fences and whilst he won’t hit any and keel over I can see him possibly losing his footing when landing and losing all momentum at a vital stage. He also lacks enough experience for me over fences, having had only two races so far after his year off. There is also the factor that the owner didn’t want him to run at Cheltenham but appears to have been overruled by the trainer in this matter. The owner might not know horses in the same intimate way that a trainer does but his gut feeling may well be proven correct tomorrow and I just hope that the Hales get the horse home safe and sound after the race and have a horse to go to war with next season once he has had more experience of fences.

Second favourite Tidal Bay is highly rated by some shrewd experts in the game and whilst they have forgotten more about this game than I will ever know, I still can’t get out of my head the poor form of the Howard Johnson yard and the fact the trainer was very unconfident in today’s Racing Post about the general well-being of his string and it is for that reason alone I wish to take him on at the prices available.

The one I shall be betting here then is the Charlie Mann trained Moon Over Miami who at the prices available as I write this, is currently 20/1 in places but even at Coral’s 16/1 he rates value. I really don’t see what else the horse has to do to be taken seriously by the majority of punters in the previews. Two from two at Cheltenham, so we know he handles the track(which may well be a hindrance to some in the field),is a stone better according to his trainer going left handed like he encounters today, and forgive him his last run as it came after a long-ish break for him which would explain why he was so wound up with the lengthy delay to the start of the race. With that run behind him, he should be better suited to the race today, and although one judge intimated to me that if he hears Charlie Mann had trained a winner at the Festival he would check the news reports to see if there were reports of pigs flying over Prestbury Park as he has yet to get off the mark here I still wouldn’t let that put me off and I shall have 1pt e/w on Moon Over Miami as it is the only value left in the market and the best of his form so far puts him in with as much of chance as some shorter priced individuals, including a raiding party from across the Irish Sea who don’t look up to the job here.


3.15 Champion Hurdle

The big one for day one and the race in which my NAP of the meeting runs. Yes, you read it right. The horse I consider THE Best bet of the entire meeting runs in this race, although I won’t be actually betting him tomorrow. The reason for not betting him on the day of the race is that I already have more than enough Ante-Post wagers on him dating back to September that I don’t need any more on him for him to make a small fortune. Before I reveal who I believe WILL Win the race, let me make a case for not backing the main protagonists.

Sizing Europe beat absolute second raters in the Greatwood, Hurdle in my opinion ,and whilst he did win the AIG in easy style last time out, I question exactly what level of form he needed to beat a horse who may be now on the downgrade in Hardy Eustace, and whether it is good enough to win a Champion Hurdle. Personally I would say if you have nice ante-post vouchers at big prices then fair play to you but I can’t entertain him at current odds.

Neither can I have Osana,given that he couldn’t win last years Country Hurdle so what makes people think he has suddenly improved so much that he will be able to win a Grade 1 today. In the Bula, he got a massive lead early and beating Katchit( I don’t rate him at all irrespective of the stat about five year olds not winning this race) and a half fit Sublimity doesn’t look good enough form on the book for me to get involved today. As with Sizing Europe, if you got on Osans at massive prices( I know one person who has 100/1 on him to small stakes) then you have a cracking bet that surely you will have traded out of by now for a guaranteed profit but not one to get involved in at such short odds to these eyes. So with Katchit, Osana and Sizing Europe all on the negative side for me, can I find any others to knock out? Harchibald couldn’t do it when at the peak of his fitness so why should we expect him to do it now?. Stupid price in my opinion as he needs a flat track to be seen at his best and will flatter going up the hill and anyone backing him tomorrow has to bet him on Betfair so they can trade out of his when he looks like he might do it turning in to the straight. Catch Me doesn’t look up to this class so far in his career and don’t read too much into the fact that Ruby Walsh rides this rather than Willie Mullins horse as he was never going to ride that one

Mention of Willie Mullins’ runner takes me nicely onto the Best Bet of the meeting. I am firmly in the camp that argues a case for saying Ebazyian WILL not be beaten tomorrow and I cannot hear of defeat for him as he finally gets his ideal conditions for only the second time this year. Namely, he has to have a big field to be seen at his best as shown by his record when racing in fields of 12 runners or more of: 221812111(5-9) as opposed to :0845345(0-7) in fields of 11 or less runners. He had his conditions when running out an impressive winner of the Supreme Novices last season ,and it took Willie Mullins a couple of runs this season to realise that he just doesn’t like the Somme like conditions that the Irish trials tend to be run in as the pace tends to be pedestrian at times early on which doesn’t help Ebazyian settle the same as he does in big fields where he can settle better, jump better and then making his run in between the last flights between horses. I do think he is a bit like Harchibald in as much as he has to hit the front as late as possible ,but he has far more resolution in his left hoof than that nutcase. Expect Davy Condon to produce him approaching the last and let the horse use his stamina to outstay the rest of the field up the famous hill to another famous win for his trainer here to add to his ten previous wins here)


4.00 William Hill Trophy

Now we really get down to the nitty gritty with a tasty looking handicap after the three Group 1 races and one horse stands out like a beacon here. I have already backed L’Ami and Monkerhostin at the last two Festivals in the Gold Cup and I just can’t have them at such short prices in this race as they seemed on the downgrade this year, and whilst this year’s renewal may not lack the class of perhaps previous years, I cannot have Monkerhostin as horses don’t win Cheltenham Festival handicaps off 11st10lbs.He may run on for a place but whether or not he wins is debatable giving that he is giving away such lumps of weight. L’Ami hasn’t won for over three years, and again might run into a place but far too short to get involved in win betting with. If the blinkers make as much assistance to An Accordion second time around then he could well be a well handicapped individual based on his win in the Racing Post Chase but the fences at Doncaster don’t take half as much jumping as the ones here at Prestbury Park do. Therefore, I am willing to let him go un-backed, although in running players may well want to get involved after seeing how he takes the first few fences.

The one I see as being the best value, is probably the price he is because the stable haven’t been in tremendous form this season, and the stable jockey rides another in the race, but for me Bob Hall looks primed to run a big race tomorrow for Jonjo O’Neill and at 20/1 with the sponsors he just has to be bet tomorrow with 1pt e/w being staked on him. His best run this season came on his seasonal bow behind Knowhere over 2m5f when just touched off and he ran a cracker in last year’s Jewson when just being run out of it by L’Antartique after jumping the last fence just behind that rival. Kept fresh for this, after two subsequent uninspiring runs when the stable were out of form ,he has stamina questions in the mind of some to answer but I am not so sure that will be as much of a question tomorrow and at the price that he is available at I feel it is enticing enough to take the chance on.


4.40 Cross Country Race


Now we come to the race some pundits will re-name the “Making a cup of tea” race as there s plenty of time for punters watching this on television in the house to make a cup of tea and they will still not be anywhere near the finish of the race. As such, it will be a race where I won’t risk as much of the bank as the other races tomorrow but will just have a 0.5pt each way bet on the winner two years ago Native Jack returning to form under the jockey who rode him that day Davy Russell who rides him for the first time since that win here. He finished tailed off last year behind Heads On The Ground but did make mistakes at vital stages of that race ,and is also nearly two stone better off with last year’s winner Heads On The Ground this time around. It is only a speculative punt but at the prices going around /I am willing to risk a small amount of the bank that the jockey can hunt him round and run into a place.


5.20


A bit of nightmare for punters here as the top weight could easily outclass the lot of them landing the Sunderland’s’ double in the process but if you didn’t take the 8/1 available prior to the Imperial Cup then would you take 11/4(best price ) now?. Just three days after that run at Sandown, and carrying top weight of 11-12.Not for me, I am afraid but fair play to Johnson and Pipe for attempting it. Take him out of the equation however, and where do you start looking for the value. Again, not splashing the same stake as I have on the first four races on this one but at 50/1 I will risk 0.5pt on a Cheltenham legend as a jockey returning and winning as a trainer for the first time in Jim Culloty with Western Point who was trained in this country on the flat by Sir Mark Prescott .The horse passes a couple of stats in as much as he won at 12f and raced at 1m6f as well(Beaten at Musselburgh over 1m6f),and also that he has had the requisite three runs for a handicap mark. He has experience of big fields having won last time out ,by seven lengths, in a race of twenty runners, and has a jockey who I rate on prominent racers in Tom Doyle so may well make all here. At the prices, he looks the only value in a race that looks a minefield for punters.

So to recap,

1pt e/w Pasco @ 18/1( Corals)
1pt e/w Moon Over Miami @ 16/1 ( Corals)
1pt e/w Bob Hall @ 20/1( William Hills)
0.5pt e/w Native Jack @ 33/1( general)
0.5pt e/w Western Point @ 50/1(general)

0.25pt e/w Lucky 15:

Pasco
Moon Over Miami
Ebazyian
Bob Hall


Best of luck with whatever you bet tomorrow and may all the horses come home safe and sound to live another day..[/quote

mike65

Those odds are mad, ted.

I shall put 1 euro on an eachway for that lot!

Mike.

Degag

mike65 wrote: »

Those odds are mad, ted.

I shall put 1 euro on an eachway for that lot!

Mike.

True but if even one comes in i shall be in profit.:cool:

UnitedIrishman

Interesting seeing his major backing of Ebazyian, was thinking of either him or Afsoun for an outsider bet in that race. Think I'll go with his tip.

mdwexford

If Ebazyian wins the Champion Hurdle ill give up racing, his reasoning for ruling out Osana is bad imo, horses do improve, Katchit came at him with every chance at the last and he pulled right away. Thats the best hurdle performance of the season imo, he will not be denied come 3.23pm.

Heisenberg.

This post has been deleted.

kenco

Hmmm, interesting reading. I took some of this guys tips last year and stacked them up with my own inklings and it worked out OK.

Very interesting that he is hot on Ebazyian. I had this on my short list for several months and do agree with him that the Irish Trials dont suit him, that said Rubys choice for another on my short list had ruled him out.....I will have to think a bit more about this.

While I like Osana I think he is the most likely to win as opposed to a cert. If Sublimity is back to his best (which I personnally dont believe and therefore wont back him) he will romp it.

Like his tip for the Arkle though as I cant come up with anything in that one myself!

Best of luck lads and lassies!

mickc

i think a lot of people are going to get stung following him this year..

concobhar

mickc wrote: »

i think a lot of people are going to get stung following him this year..

or there will be a lot of very rich people on this thread. I've backed his selections for fun at minuscule stakes. Maybe lightening will strike twice. You only will get stung if you wade in on his bets.

wyndham

mickc wrote: »

i think a lot of people are going to get stung following him this year..

I don't agree. The prices for the six tips he gave today are 16/1,16/1, 28/1, 18/1, 33/1, 50/1.

Anyone with a bit of sense shouldn't back heavily at these prices. They are long enough for small stakes to pay off handsomely.

ie

A €1 e/w lucky 15 on his first 4 selections returns around €200k if they all win

At these prices a fiver each/way on each selection is plenty.

His analysis is good and 1 placed horse from the 6 selections would be enough for money back or thereabouts, assuming equal stake each -way bets on each tip.

BangBeater

mdwexford wrote: »

If Ebazyian wins the Champion Hurdle ill give up racing, his reasoning for ruling out Osana is bad imo, horses do improve, Katchit came at him with every chance at the last and he pulled right away. Thats the best hurdle performance of the season imo, he will not be denied come 3.23pm.

No offence, but I hate when people make that statement... I'll give up racing if such & such happens.... These are all good horses contesting this field.

Ebizyan has every chance & could well be placed (or win!) at 25/1 and has the ability to do it. Katchit is past his best... his last victory was a struggle. Therefore, Osana's victory wasn't that impressive IMO. Harchibald... no. SE is the one to beat... but his slightly high jumping later today might just catch him. Sublimity? Nope. Something up with him.

I was thinking I'll have a large bet originally on SE... now I'll be easily misled & have a smaller bet E/W at 25's on Ebizyan

BangBeater

mickc wrote: »

i think a lot of people are going to get stung following him this year..

Silly statement. You'll only ever get stung if you're betting more than what you can afford to lose.

Heisenberg.

This post has been deleted.

mdwexford

BangBeater wrote: »

No offence, but I hate when people make that statement... I'll give up racing if such & such happens.... These are all good horses contesting this field.

Ebizyan has every chance & could well be placed (or win!) at 25/1 and has the ability to do it. Katchit is past his best... his last victory was a struggle. Therefore, Osana's victory wasn't that impressive IMO. Harchibald... no. SE is the one to beat... but his slightly high jumping later today might just catch him. Sublimity? Nope. Something up with him.

I was thinking I'll have a large bet originally on SE... now I'll be easily misled & have a smaller bet E/W at 25's on Ebizyan

Me too, it was in order to get across how much of a no hoper i rate Ebaziyan as. He doesnt have every chance, hes ran one good race in his life, has pounds upon pounds to find i think.

Katchit's last run was within a couple of pounds of anything hes ever done. Hes 5 ffs, how can he be past his best. Osana is weighted to beat Sizing Europe not to mention the Greatwood was Osana's first run of the season and has been put away since the Bula. People are going to see a different horse today, a la Valiramix.

mrquiteaguy

Anything can happen with big fields.
I have picked my own 6 selections but if Trainbairns ones come up,i will happily switch over:D

BangBeater

mdwexford wrote: »

Me too, it was in order to get across how much of a no hoper i rate Ebaziyan as. He doesnt have every chance, hes ran one good race in his life, has pounds upon pounds to find i think.

Katchit's last run was within a couple of pounds of anything hes ever done. Hes 5 ffs, how can he be past his best. Osana is weighted to beat Sizing Europe not to mention the Greatwood was Osana's first run of the season and has been put away since the Bula. People are going to see a different horse today, a la Valiramix.

OK, crazy statement there about being past his best as a 5yo admittedly. I'm trying to be the next matt chapman... lol.

Nah, Osana has every chance too & perfect E/W bet... I'm being over ambitious in the hope of catching an outsider too I guess. Fckit, twill be a cracking race in fairness!

RasTa

What do you mean don't take it as Gospel. I've put my house on his NAP of the weekend!!!

Heisenberg.

This post has been deleted.

bassy

not a sign of pasco at the finish.

c - 13

The Scientist wrote: »

Just got Ezbayian at 40/1 with William Hill (Brick & Mortar).

http://www.expertbettingadvice.co.uk/forum/post175142-21.html

No joy on the first race, ah well. Not the end of the world.

Mister Fister

c - 13 wrote: »

http://www.expertbettingadvice.co.uk/forum/post175142-21.html

No joy on the first race, ah well. Not the end of the world.

No joy on the second either

c - 13

Aye, and i'm not too hopeful for the third either

Heisenberg.

This post has been deleted.

shrapnel222

The Scientist wrote: »

Drifted to 33/1 on PP. Doesn't look like theres much money on him...

the racing post has him as one of the top ten most bet on horse on their site, so there is some money there, but 6 of horses above him are all in that race too lol

GetOffMyPatch

shrapnel222 wrote: »

the racing post has him as one of the top ten most bet on horse on their site, so there is some money there, but 6 of horses above him are all in that race too lol

Think the rain caused concern as he wanted it as good as possible

c - 13

Native Jack second - First placement of the day for me ! Cheers TrainBairn

mccarte2

Think he returned 40/1 or so - as good as a 10/1 winner for those of us who backed him each way!

Heisenberg.

This post has been deleted.

patmac

Had him each-way @ 33/1 and double up ew with Western Point @ 50/1 so here's hoping