Recession coming or just a slowdown?

Saskia

I was wondering if all this talk of a slowdown or even recession is just scaremongering or we need to genuinely start looking after our cash a bit better.

There is definitely something in the air I think. With Stockmarkets dropping and the property market bubble finally bursting.

Are you more careful with your money this year than you were last year?

How long did the last recession last does anyone know?

kaimera

I didn't have money last year so now it doesn't matter that I do

Jesus Wept

A recession is defined as two quarters of negative growth.


At least that's how it is in Yankie Doodle Land, and they own the world.


From Yahoo Answers:

According to the economists, since 1854, USA has encountered 32 cycles of expansions and contractions, on average with 17 months of contraction and 38 months of expansion. However in recent years, they have been shorter and much less common. Since 1980, there have been only four recessions:
Jan-July 1980: 6 months ~ Carter
July 1981-Nov 1982: 16 months ~ Reagan
July 1990-March 1991: 8 months ~ GHW Bush
March 2001-Nov 2001: 8 months ~ George Bush
During March 1991 to March 2001, The United States experienced the longest economic expansion - 120 months. thank you very much ~ Bubba Clinton.


I imagine it will hit us harder.

mastermind2005

can anyone tell me what the difference is between the two?

gerTheGreat

One means no jobs, the means no pay rise. All the talk of a recession is nonsense; the property market is starting to pick up again. The whole banking problem is sorting itself out.

If you want a sign of things to come, maybe this might help:

According to the Sunday Tribune, Castletorn, (the people who build the new Dundrum shopping centre), are pushing ahead with the redevelopment of the old shopping centre. This has been on hold for a while. They wouldn't be spending money like this, if they weren't happy about the economy.

Jesus Wept

gerTheGreat wrote: »

One means no jobs, the means no pay rise. All the talk of a recession is nonsense.

Honestly, I don't know a great deal at all about economics, however, to say it's nonsense is a bit silly.

Recession is inevitable, it will happen at some stage, the only question is when. Recession is a part of the economic cycle.

Recession is like death, taxes and nurses.
They are all sure things.

SimpleSam06

gerTheGreat wrote: »

All the talk of a recession is nonsense; the property market is starting to pick up again.

I would disagree with that. The property market has been streaking upwards since before 2000, and for a variety of reasons is drastically overpriced at the moment. What you have now is people thinking that 10% off a property is good value, ignoring that properties have increased in value by a lot more than that in recent years. Whats happening now is known as a dead cat bounce, and there will be a couple more on the way down.

A big hint was the banks themselves selling off their own property and leasing it back a year ago, a fairly safe indication that property prices had peaked.

For my money (and I mean that literally) you'd be flat out insane to buy in the next three to five years.

As regards a recession, you need to look at that in the wider context of the global markets. There were rumblings of serious trouble again as far back as 2000, but there are too many factors to make a definitive statement either way at this point. Something to keep an eye on would be the new Iranian oil exchange in euros, that has the potential to start a chain reaction that would knock the US off the map as the de facto global currency, and our economy is very interlinked with the US one.

If you want to know how seriously the US takes that, the last people to try it were the Iraqis.

gerTheGreat wrote: »

According to the Sunday Tribune, Castletorn, (the people who build the new Dundrum shopping centre), are pushing ahead with the redevelopment of the old shopping centre. This has been on hold for a while. They wouldn't be spending money like this, if they weren't happy about the economy.

It would probably cost them more to stop at this stage.

gerTheGreat

The-Rigger wrote: »

Honestly, I don't know a great deal at all about economics, however, to say it's nonsense is a bit silly.

Recession is inevitable, it will happen at some stage, the only question is when. Recession is a part of the economic cycle.

Recession is like death, taxes and nurses.
They are all sure things.

Appologies, I ment to type depression, not recession. I would agree that we are in the middle of a recession, but feel that the economy will be back on the up in 12 -18 months.

Padraig Mor

gerTheGreat wrote: »

the property market is starting to pick up again.

Keep telling yourself that and it might come true.

gerTheGreat

Sales are up again, (not like they were at their peek, but the figures for Feburary against October will be much better.) Prices are still stalling though. Give it time

SimpleSam06

gerTheGreat wrote: »

Give it time

Yup, I'd say around five years should do it. Also, you then get the added benefit that you have much less to repay since you've been saving for longer, shaving six figures off the overall price of your lower mortgage for its lifetime (interest payments being factored in).

togster

All i know is everytime i come home i get the feeling everything is slowing down or stopping. Been home 3 times in the last year and it is hard to put my finger on what it is but something is wrong....

Mahatma coat

I was home ther for about 8
weeks after Christmas,whatI saw and heard indicates a full on recession, kinda reminded me of when I was a kid in the eighties

Red Hand

The only recession around here is taking place on my scalp! (Only kidding!)

Naaaa...rags like the Indo/Sindo have blown it out of proportion.

'Ol Jack Chance

Jeremiah 16:1 wrote: »

Naaaa...rags like the Indo/Sindo have blown it out of proportion.

+1 to that media over reacting as usual

*scatters small bones voodoo style*

WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!

whiskeyman

so much of it depends on consumer confidence and mentality too.
If you read so much of an impending slowdown and recession, you'll probably want to be more wary of your spending habits and save more = less consumption and less money in the economy = less job growth = actual slowdown.

If the papers screamed 'boom times ahead!!', you'd probably feel more secure, spend more = more money in as consumption up = demand for goods and services up = jobs up = growth up etc...

gurramok

gerTheGreat wrote: »

Sales are up again, (not like they were at their peek, but the figures for Feburary against October will be much better.) Prices are still stalling though. Give it time

Good comedian or you have a source?

Too much debt around will not rescue IRL Inc.

User45701

Hmm.... this is random. I have been noticing things recently coments here and there and i have devoted 75% of the recources to clearing my visa debts and although i do keep allot of money in the air im going to start calling that in because it would suck if a few months from now one or two of my mates lost there jobs and coudent give me money i need (no drugini!) i book all of our group holidays on my visa card because whenever my mates are going away i never have money so i book the flights and accomendation on my vista, they give me 1/2 the cost and i have money to go away and all my mates have extra spending money so its all good.

But yes i have never saved before and im not going to start but i would advice people to start clearing there debts just encase because i have been noticing a general slow down across several cconsumer industries which account for a large amount of jobs

blackbox

User45701 wrote: »

i book the flights and accomendation on my vista, they give me 1/2 the cost and i have money to go away and all my mates have extra spending money so its all good.

...so you pay VISA so that you can give your mates free credit for half the cost of their holiday.:eek:

You'll never be short of mates!:D

User45701

blackbox wrote: »

...so you pay VISA so that you can give your mates free credit for half the cost of their holiday.:eek:

You'll never be short of mates!:D

Well they give me the rest when they can. Each purchace has a limited interest free period and i ask them for the other 1/2 when i am about to get charged interest, for example went to the dam in november and i need the money in the next week or two, before march so i dont make a loss.

mike65

The-Rigger wrote: »

Recession is inevitable, it will happen at some stage, the only question is when. Recession is a part of the economic cycle.

Only if you are doing it wrong.

Slowdown is a sure thing but not negative growth i.e. the total size of the economy shrinking which is what recession is. That happens only in particular circumstances like a 70s type oil shock or rank bad managment (Ireland 1980s).

Mike.

spudster101

Mmm as a carpenter that was let off at Christmas and still looking for work its hard to see property market picking up any time some. Developers are finding it hard to sell out there at the moment even up in Dublin. Maybe I shouldnt be telling peolple this.
I know plenty of lads in the same boat. Hopefully things will bounce back.

Program on TV the other night with a former Chancellor of the exchecker.
He was painting a fairly bleak view of the British economy maintaing that the debt is too excessive for things to go back to the way they were.

whiskeyman wrote: »

so much of it depends on consumer confidence and mentality too.
If you read so much of an impending slowdown and recession, you'll probably want to be more wary of your spending habits and save more = less consumption and less money in the economy = less job growth = actual slowdown.

If the papers screamed 'boom times ahead!!', you'd probably feel more secure, spend more = more money in as consumption up = demand for goods and services up = jobs up = growth up etc...

Its all propaganzes I tells ya
Bleedin Governments and media luring peolpe into a false sense of security

Terry

mike65 wrote: »

Only if you are doing it wrong.

Slowdown is a sure thing but not negative growth i.e. the total size of the economy shrinking which is what recession is. That happens only in particular circumstances like a 70s type oil shock or rank bad managment (Ireland 1980s).

Mike.

Oil crisis and bad government, you say?

Manic Moran

They say that if the US sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold.

The US economy is not in the best of shape, and is suffering a slowdown. However, the best guesses are still that the US economy is not currently in a recession, and will likely manage to avoid one, with the slowdown reversing mid/late 2008.

NTM

Terry

spudster101 wrote: »

Mmm as a carpenter that was let off at Christmas and still looking for work its hard to see property market picking up any time some. Developers are finding it hard to sell out there at the moment even up in Dublin. Maybe I shouldnt be telling peolple this.
I know plenty of lads in the same boat. Hopefully things will bounce back.

Program on TV the other night with a former Chancellor of the exchecker.
He was painting a fairly bleak view of the British economy maintaing that the debt is too excessive for things to go back to the way they were.

I'm a tiler by trade and have had only one job this year (barring small bits for friends and family).
Every other tiler I know is having trouble getting work too.

My next door neighbour is a chippie and he went to Australia late last year because of the lack of work here.

An electrician friend took a job in Intel because of the lack of site work.
His brother works for a large construction company and they have stopped work on their latest development due to people not buying houses.

Another friend has had his house on the market for a year now.
End row semi dormer bungalow going for a decent price and he still can't sell it.

I'm off to college (failing that, FÁS) this year. The construction industry is not in good shape.

dubdcugirly

There is a recession in every country in the world regularly...business cycle of boom and recession its the way things work!

Luckily as a student in DCU and we did this today!

Long answer:
What is expected to happen by the "learned folk" is called a soft landing!This means that the government will counteract the slow in the market by putting a bit of money in which was saved when things were doing very well...

Fair enough there may not be huge pay rises coming everyones way but thats because in order for the economy to be okay, we can't go spending to high heaven as that will push up inflation blablabla and thats wen it gets boring....

Short Answer: government know it is coming and will act soften the effects, nothing major.

ionapaul

dubdcugirly wrote: »

There is a recession in every country in the world regularly...business cycle of boom and recession its the way things work!

Luckily as a student in DCU and we did this today!

Long answer:
What is expected to happen by the "learned folk" is called a soft landing!This means that the government will counteract the slow in the market by putting a bit of money in which was saved when things were doing very well...

Fair enough there may not be huge pay rises coming everyones way but thats because in order for the economy to be okay, we can't go spending to high heaven as that will push up inflation blablabla and thats wen it gets boring....

Short Answer: government know it is coming and will act soften the effects, nothing major.

That was classic!

Edit: Shouldn't be mean, but I just don't agree with you - the government did not save money when things were going well in order to plow it back into the system during a slowdown, and the tax take has plummeted because of our reliance on so many houses being sold to pay for the budget. Ireland Inc is in for a few rocky years, hopefully we'll all come out of it OK and maybe a bit wiser.

gurramok

dubdcugirly wrote: »

There is a recession in every country in the world regularly...business cycle of boom and recession its the way things work!

Luckily as a student in DCU and we did this today!

Long answer:
What is expected to happen by the "learned folk" is called a soft landing!This means that the government will counteract the slow in the market by putting a bit of money in which was saved when things were doing very well...

Fair enough there may not be huge pay rises coming everyones way but thats because in order for the economy to be okay, we can't go spending to high heaven as that will push up inflation blablabla and thats wen it gets boring....

Short Answer: government know it is coming and will act soften the effects, nothing major.

ROFL!

Did Bertie hide this magical money which we're all going to get in one of his non-existent bank accounts?

utick

Manic Moran wrote: »

They say that if the US sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold.

The US economy is not in the best of shape, and is suffering a slowdown. However, the best guesses are still that the US economy is not currently in a recession, and will likely manage to avoid one, with the slowdown reversing mid/late 2008.

NTM

yup thats the prediction of the economists, but they cant exactly come out and say 'dont spend save your money for the coming depression' because if people cut back spending it will make the whole thing a lot worse, so i would be slightly (very) skepticle of any of those forecasts. (it would be the equivellent of a real estate agent telling people not to buy now because prices will be cheaper soon)

SimpleSam06

dubdcugirly wrote: »

Luckily as a student in DCU and we did this today!

Short Answer: government know it is coming and will act soften the effects, nothing major.

Ah bless ya. Unfortunately the real world has little to do with the textbook response to a recession.

What should have happened:
Enormous tax takes over the last eight years due to the booming property market used to build up our infrastructure to a world class level, with massive support given to domestic business and local industries with an export bent. Combine this with wise debt servicing and prudent financial policies and you have a serious contender.

What actually happened:
The petty politicos built up their own power base by hiring enormous amounts of public sector workers and increasing their pay far beyond private sector rates, as well as enhancing gold plated pensions via a process called benchmarking.

At the same time they did everything humanly possible to continue the meteoric rise of property prices at the behest of vested interests, guaranteeing a collapse of epic proportions.

And lets not forget our glorious leader telling people to tighten their belts while humbly accepting a thirty eight grand pay rise (attempted to cover this with a baldly transparent nonsense threat to knock half the drivers off the road overnight) in the finest traditions of his mentor, CJ Haughey.

Unfortunately, the one in five people employed in this country in the public service still need to be paid, since you can't fire them because they'll go on strike and blackmail the nation, so look for greatly increased taxes in the near future to add to our recessionary concerns.

And that was that for the Celtic tiger.

Saskia

Surely the government has SOME money to offset any disasters Sam?

mikemac

I totally agree the property market is a bust and thousands of young people bought shoddy shoeboxes they have no hope of selling in a few years.

However, my only question is why are the likes of Sean Dunne and Bernard McNamara spending hundreds of millions in Ballsbridge and Ringsend. These are some the richest people in the country and they didn't rise from nothing by being fools.
Do they know something we don't?
Everytime I think there's a property crash I wonder what are they doing?

Sam, I think we have a fairly low national debt, one of the lowest in Europe. So that's one thing that's ok. Good post though!

ionapaul

Sean Dunne was a man in the right place at the right time - I'm not convinced he or any other of the Irish 'super developers' are amazing business people. If he makes money on that Jurys Ballsbridge deal I will eat my hat, your hat, point to a hat and I'll eat it! It is possible that Sean Dunne et al end up crashing and burning by trying to develop through a crash, instead of sitting tight like more cautious developers.

micmclo

micmclo wrote: »

I totally agree the property market is a bust and thousands of young people bought shoddy shoeboxes they have no hope of selling in a few years.

However, my only question is why are the likes of Sean Dunne and Bernard McNamara spending hundreds of millions in Ballsbridge and Ringsend. These are some the richest people in the country and they didn't rise from nothing by being fools.
Do they know something we don't?
Everytime I think there's a property crash I wonder what are they doing?

Sam, I think we have a fairly low national debt, one of the lowest in Europe. So that's one thing that's ok. Good post though!

They couldn't have foreseen the current problems in the credit markets. They have already spend huge amounts of cash. They have to plow on. I predict this will be folly

Even without that. The value they put on those properties looks pricey even betting on continuing growth. That’s basically what has happened in Ireland over the past few years and a lot of people have made vast sums from it. Get financing, buy, develop it and sell for mega bucks. Its not rocket science. It only works if property keeps appreciating. If it doesn't or if it falls the banks are going to come looking for money you didn't make.

I think we could see a lot of canny developers getting their fingers burnt.

stepbar

We're Irish.. We're sly... Recession... What?

In all seriousness, I'm a Banker. I've seen a slowdown in mainstream and business lending. What would have been acceptable last year isn't now. That being said I have only exposure to one branch. Lending might be on the up elsewhere, but I doubt it. So all in all, I can forsee a period of belt tightening. However, it's not good to be talking the economy down. There's lots of money out there. Problem is the rich are holding on to it.

The likes of Dunne and McNamara are right up to it in debt. There is a reason why McNamara's are tendering for contracts abroad. They have to to keep revenues up. As for Dunne, he has good assets and (to a certain extent) can weather the storm. For how long is another question.

stepbar

stepbar wrote: »

However, it's not good to be talking the economy down.

I was with you up until that.
It is really a ridiculous statement and I'm amazed its still getting mileage.

Is the economy in such a delicate state that we are afraid to say the emperor has no cloths? Should people be advised that everything will be Ok even when the signs point otherwise?

johnnyskeleton

User45701 wrote: »

Well they give me the rest when they can. Each purchace has a limited interest free period and i ask them for the other 1/2 when i am about to get charged interest, for example went to the dam in november and i need the money in the next week or two, before march so i dont make a loss.

Is that one of those interest free for six month credit cards, or are you just happygolucky when it comes to maths?

Black Swan

Saskia wrote: »

I was wondering if all this talk of a slowdown or even recession is just scaremongering or we need to genuinely start looking after our cash a bit better.

There will always be business cycles, and the USA is due for one that will be "officially" termed a recession only after the November presidential elections have been concluded. Being the world's largest economy (in terms of GDP), it will tend to drag everyone else down with it through the cycle. That's the news...

Now a word from our sponsor.

spudster101

Right economics is complecated but this is my jist in algebraic terms nice n simple even for a an ejit like me.:D

< debt reaches saturation point =no expendature among genreal public= no consumerization= profit drop and growth in companies= job layoffs and wage drops= ablity not possibble to pay debt off among public due to job losses= banks in difficulty due to lack of repayments= interest rate
rises, infalation=job layoffs> and here we have the snowball effect back to more jobs being lost or signifcant wage drops.>


Now if this sounds like complete sh**e ignore my post im half pissed neways.

SimpleSam06

Saskia wrote: »

Surely the government has SOME money to offset any disasters Sam?

Well I'll put it to you like this; the EU released a report which I read about in the indo yesterday which basically echoed my earlier post point for point. The headline was "Boom Squandered" or some such, and Brussels is unhappy.

Saskia

I heard that yesterday about the EU too. Anyone know how much they gave us last year? Apparently Brussels want our empty properties filled and the construction industry sorted or the funds they give us will be cut!

SimpleSam06

Saskia wrote: »

I heard that yesterday about the EU too. Anyone know how much they gave us last year? Apparently Brussels want our empty properties filled and the construction industry sorted or the funds they give us will be cut!

Don't forget the insane public wage bill cut, and further increases stopped...

Time Magazine

A recession is where national output falls, specifically for at least two continuous quarters. The ESRI report that GNP grew by 4.4% last year and expect output will continue to grow by 2.3% this year.

Estimates of growth are far harder to accurately predict for 2009 (due to the effect of shocks that haven't happened yet) but the general consensus is that it will be higher than the rate of growth in 2008. Yes a growth rate of 2.3% would be the slowest since 1992, but that's because the previous fifteen years have seen unprecedented growth. It's also worth noting that 2.3% of 2008's GNP is much more than 2.3% of 1992's GNP in real terms.

So we're expecting growth of 2.3%. In terms of international comparisons, the IMF expect the US economy will grow at 1.9%, the German admit they'll grow at less than 2% and the OECD expect France to also experience growth of less than 2%.

Scaremongering based on the previous decade's growth figures is still scaremongering.

SimpleSam06

Ibid wrote: »

A recession is where national output falls, specifically for at least two continuous quarters. The ESRI report that GNP grew by 4.4% last year and expect output will continue to grow by 2.3% this year.

Theres a lot of room for maneuver within those figures though. I mean the "growth" of the last 15 years, or at least the last 10 was largely in the construction and financial support sectors, with a follow on and detrimental growth in the public sector. Take those out and you get a different picture, and those are the areas that are going to be hardest hit in the property collapse. Just waving at GNP and saying it will be grand isn't going to do much good; likewise comparing the economy of the US to that of Germany or France is apples and oranges, they are very different beasts.

Theres a line between scaremongering and realistic assessment.

Time Magazine

SimpleSam06 wrote: »

Theres a lot of room for maneuver within those figures though. I mean the "growth" of the last 15 years, or at least the last 10 was largely in the construction and financial support sectors, with a follow on and detrimental growth in the public sector. Take those out and you get a different picture.

Theres a line between scaremongering and realistic assessment.

Thinking the ESRI "take out" the effects of construction and financial services is not realistic assessment.

SimpleSam06

Ibid wrote: »

Thinking the ESRI "take out" the effects of construction and financial services is not realistic assessment.

I didn't say they did. I'm saying the construction and financial sectors skew the graph in Ireland's favour. If you remove them, Ireland doesn't look so great after all. And funnily enough, those are the very sectors that are due to be clotheslined over the next few years.

stepbar

ronoc wrote: »

I was with you up until that.
It is really a ridiculous statement and I'm amazed its still getting mileage.

Is the economy in such a delicate state that we are afraid to say the emperor has no cloths? Should people be advised that everything will be Ok even when the signs point otherwise?

No its not. There is plenty of money out there. I know that for a fact. I see it sitting in deposit accounts. And I'm not talking about small money either. The construction industry is not the only industry on this island. The smart people got out of the property market in 2006. They are just waiting for the right time to invest.

gurramok

stepbar wrote: »

No its not. There is plenty of money out there. I know that for a fact. I see it sitting in deposit accounts. And I'm not talking about small money either. The construction industry is not the only industry on this island. The smart people got out of the property market in 2006. They are just waiting for the right time to invest.

Unfortunately, the smart people are in the minority.

23% of GNP tied up in construction related industry is the reason things ain't looking good.

Nevermind the €100bn(yes billion) owed by developers alone to the banks.

Lets hope those depositors use that dosh to invest in real industry instead of using it as collateral to borrow heavily on property here and abroad in previous years..

Saskia

gurramok wrote: »

Nevermind the €100bn(yes billion) owed by developers alone to the banks.

After all those fat tiger years the developers OWE money to the banks??!

gurramok

Yes, see here http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055242854

Ireland Inc. ain't even remotely near worth that amount!

DonJose

Manic Moran wrote: »

They say that if the US sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold.

Then its a good thing Ireland isn't dependant on US exports and US multi nationals... Oh wait!!!