Value bets on Irish Open

Decod · 31-01-2008 11:40am #1

Here's where you nominate players you've played against a lot recently as good value for their quoted odds in the IO.

Mine:

Nicky Power - obvious pick, but obvious great value at 175/1. If Nicky goes deep again, he has the game to take it down this year.

Donnacha O'Dea - 200/1? What? What? What? For that matter, his young fella is value at 200 too.

Marq O'Neill - 350/1. Great all round hairy monster game with gears to burn, Marq will be particularly dangerous if he gets a stack together early on. Has developed into a great situational player and he's due a massive breakthrough.

Dara O'Kearney - 350/1. Big online winner who has developed a good TAG live play style that gets him to a lot of final tables in the clubs. Might be a better bet for final table (he seems to make lots, but be short stacked more often than not). Stamina is a factor in these events and you're not going to do better than current national 24 hour running champion.

Jude McCarthy - 350/1. Most improved player in the last year for me. Great all round game and late on aggression, great reader of the man and the situation, plenty of gears, nice variation to his game, and ready for a big breakout result. Maybe needs to learn to get away from big hands when he's beaten a bit more often, but I think he'll be particularly effective early on when most people will be playing tight and if he does get a big stack he's capable of cruising deep.

eagle eye · 31-01-2008 12:23pm

Having perused through the betting list, theres two that stand out to me and who are not quoted on the list,
they are ipc champion jude ainsworth, he played in a 100 freezout three days after the ipc win and won it as well.

The other is Todd Brunson who is definitely playing or so he says anyways.

BigCityBanker · 31-01-2008 12:34pm

eagle eye wrote: »

Having perused through the betting list, theres two that stand out to me and who are not quoted on the list,
they are ipc champion jude ainsworth, he played in a 100 freezout three days after the ipc win and won it as well.

The other is Todd Brunson who is definitely playing or so he says anyways.

Jude Ainsworth is quoted in the betting.

I wasnt aware that Todd was coming. Doyle is making the trip alright and is listed. I will add Todd in.

Betting is here btw.

JackBlack · 31-01-2008 12:55pm

Sorel Mizzi 150-1

rag2gar · 31-01-2008 1:14pm

Chub is z bet

eagle eye · 31-01-2008 1:15pm

BigCityBanker wrote: »

Jude Ainsworth is quoted in the betting.

I wasnt aware that Todd was coming. Doyle is making the trip alright and is listed. I will add Todd in.

Betting is here btw.

Todd is coming. Just found Jude, thanks.

SuperHans · 31-01-2008 1:18pm

I think you'll find it hard finding any sort of value. There were 708 runners last year, so I'd assume there will be more this year. I suppose the best bet would be an unknown player who you personally know to be an excellent player, but saying O'Dea is value at 200-1 is wrong.

luckylucky · 31-01-2008 1:49pm

SuperHans wrote: »

I think you'll find it hard finding any sort of value.

.

Poker events are possibly amongst the worst value type of betting out there.

Jesus Wept · 31-01-2008 1:57pm

It's a 1000 runner field. (likely)

Look at the odds you have quoted, there is no value.
Bookmakers do not offer value in these markets.

It makes my head hurt when people believe there is value relative to something else that isn't value either.

The logic seems to be:

Loaf of bread A: = €50
Loaf of bread B: = €15

Therefore, loaf of bread B = !!Valuetown!! :rolleyes:

No, it's €15 for a loaf of bread, that's not value, it's still a rip off, it's just less of a rip off than the €50 bread.
(and it's for sale in the same shop, which should give you a clue that you are shopping in the wrong place).

Now maybe it's a nicer loaf of bread, homemade with decent ingredients, but you are still paying €15 for flour and water and yeast.

Now I'm off to get lunch because I think my hunger is adversely affecting my analogies.

rag2gar · 31-01-2008 2:23pm

I like bread

Wreck · 31-01-2008 2:28pm

rag2gar wrote: »

I like bread

Me too, but I wouldn't pay €15 for a loaf.

The_Chopper · 31-01-2008 2:38pm

The-Rigger wrote: »

The logic seems to be:

Loaf of bread A: = €50
Loaf of bread B: = €15

Therefore, loaf of bread B = !!Valuetown!! :rolleyes:

Brilliant - but surely it's +EV to buy the €15 bread

Jesus Wept · 31-01-2008 2:39pm

€1000 €850 €700 €500 the lot.

Can't say fairer than that.

El Stuntman · 31-01-2008 2:44pm

that's a lotta dough

Jesus Wept · 31-01-2008 2:49pm

El Stuntman wrote: »

that's a lotta dough

You have a rye sense of humour, but there's no knead for such stale half-baked comments.

Decod · 31-01-2008 2:55pm

SuperHans wrote: »

I think you'll find it hard finding any sort of value. There were 708 runners last year, so I'd assume there will be more this year. I suppose the best bet would be an unknown player who you personally know to be an excellent player, but saying O'Dea is value at 200-1 is wrong.

If last year is anything to go by though, there'll be a high proportion of donks, what with pub qualifiers who think their normal game (=all in with any half decent hand) will work and more-money-than-sensers who can hardly play but will buy in just for the thrill of playing with the top pros.

Dan Harrington reckons that in events like WSOP main, the top guys reckon their edge means their buyin has an EV of 4 times the actual buyin so I still maintain the Don is value.

I was just taking PP as the most easily referenced source: obviously the usual provisos about better value on the betting exchanges apply. I kinda thought that was so obvious it went without saying on a forum as gambling savvy as this, but maybe not.

Ainsworth looks like a good choice.

El Stuntman · 31-01-2008 2:56pm

The-Rigger wrote: »

You have a rye sense of humour, but there's no knead for such stale half-baked comments.

I suspect you're just trying to get a rise out of me with these floury remarks

Jesus Wept · 31-01-2008 3:09pm

El Stuntman wrote: »

I suspect you're just trying to get a rise out of me with these floury remarks

I thought you'd roll with it, no need to get seedy. I'm leaven now.

hf4z6sqo7vjngi · 31-01-2008 3:17pm

The-Rigger wrote: »

I thought you'd roll with it, no need to get seedy. I'm leaven now.

Move it to the bakery/cooking forum if there is one

ditpoker · 31-01-2008 3:26pm

The-Rigger wrote: »

I thought you'd roll with it, no need to get seedy. I'm leaven now.

LOL

Goodluck2me · 31-01-2008 4:13pm

El Stuntman wrote: »

I suspect you're just trying to get a rise out of me with these floury remarks

shh... you`re baking a scene. dont worry ill be scone in a minute! (there are better one but i prefer the lowest common denominator)

Captain Tom · 31-01-2008 4:19pm

valor 350-1

phantom_lord · 31-01-2008 8:16pm

to cash?

LuckyLloyd · 31-01-2008 8:33pm

This post has been deleted.

mewso · 31-01-2008 10:54pm

Bearing in mind someone attempted to enter a monkey into the WSOP should we now attempt to enter one of Oul Mr. Brennan's finest into the IO.

Jayminator · 31-01-2008 11:30pm

rag2gar wrote: »

I like bread

LOL.. Its the little gems really

jbravado · 01-02-2008 9:31am

Adam Fallon.325-1 on an absolute heater and almost certainly the best young player in the country.

Andrew Grimason aka chub.275-1.

Also wp on the bread exchange.V good.

Ace2007 · 01-02-2008 12:32pm

jbravado wrote: »

Adam Fallon.325-1 on an absolute heater and almost certainly the best young player in the country.

Ah you got there before me... but yea adam is running well at the moment, choppin killareny and winning his ticket for the IO in within 2 weeks plus fitz EOM - but will his luck run out by march....

BigCityBanker · 01-02-2008 12:39pm

Adam did finish 45th last year

Ace2007 · 01-02-2008 12:51pm

BigCityBanker wrote: »

Adam did finish 45th last year

Is this a positive or negative comment?

dannydiamond · 01-02-2008 1:13pm

Decod wrote: »

If last year is anything to go by though, there'll be a high proportion of donks, what with pub qualifiers who think their normal game (=all in with any half decent hand) will work and more-money-than-sensers who can hardly play but will buy in just for the thrill of playing with the top pros.

Dan Harrington reckons that in events like WSOP main, the top guys reckon their edge means their buyin has an EV of 4 times the actual buyin so I still maintain the Don is value.

I was just taking PP as the most easily referenced source: obviously the usual provisos about better value on the betting exchanges apply. I kinda thought that was so obvious it went without saying on a forum as gambling savvy as this, but maybe not.

Ainsworth looks like a good choice.

The standard is not anyway near as bad as you're making out,and there really isn't that many "donks" and this isn't the wsop either,i'd agree with superhans and The-Riggers' grocery anology,that a bet on this event is fine for a bit of fun but there is clearly no value.
Suggestion,print out the list of runners,put on a blindfold and stick a pin in it,you'd be as likely to pick the winner as anyone....

nicnicnic · 01-02-2008 1:49pm

Decod wrote: »

Nicky Power - obvious pick, but obvious great value at 175/1. If Nicky goes deep again, he has the game to take it down this year.

.

I agree 100% you obv know your stuff

Macspower · 01-02-2008 2:07pm

after reading rag2gars blog entry I decided to have a punt for a tenner for the craic... I like a man with confidence

Decod · 01-02-2008 2:23pm

dannydiamond wrote: »

The standard is not anyway near as bad as you're making out,and there really isn't that many "donks" and this isn't the wsop either,i'd agree with superhans and The-Riggers' grocery anology,that a bet on this event is fine for a bit of fun but there is clearly no value.
Suggestion,print out the list of runners,put on a blindfold and stick a pin in it,you'd be as likely to pick the winner as anyone....

Jaysus but you're a gas ticket! I bet you get told that at parties all the time. Right? Right? It's clear your degree in Bleedin' Obviousology has done you no harm at all.

Some of you are missing the obvious purpose of this thread, which is to nominate some unknown and then get to be all smug if they do well. So much better than saying after the event "I knew X would do well...". Or to big up yourself or a blood relative or a buddy.

dannydiamond · 01-02-2008 3:35pm

Decod wrote: »

Jaysus but you're a gas ticket! I bet you get told that at parties all the time. Right? Right? It's clear your degree in Bleedin' Obviousology has done you no harm at all.

Some of you are missing the obvious purpose of this thread, which is to nominate some unknown and then get to be all smug if they do well. So much better than saying after the event "I knew X would do well...". Or to big up yourself or a blood relative or a buddy.

Get your hands on some good grass,this should help....

Goodluck2me · 01-02-2008 3:51pm

dannydiamond wrote: »

The standard is not anyway near as bad as you're making out,and there really isn't that many "donks" .

...If you cant spot the fish...

rag2gar · 01-02-2008 4:08pm

Macspower wrote: »

after reading rag2gars blog entry I decided to have a punt for a tenner for the craic... I like a man with confidence

I hope you did it for Drogheda though macs! Yeah I'm looking to win it, no doubt about it

dannydiamond · 01-02-2008 4:11pm

goodluck2me wrote: »

...If you cant spot the fish...i'll be wearing a red jumper

i'll be sure and find you,tx

Decod · 10-02-2008 7:33pm

Decod wrote: »

Some of you are missing the obvious purpose of this thread, which is to nominate some unknown and then get to be all smug if they do well. .

Is it okay if I start feeling smug already, given my nomination of Dara O'Kearney in this thread as one of the most impressive new players on the Dublin club scene and online, given that he just took down the European Deepstack main event?

Gutted I didn't know he was taking part in advance as I'd have had a punt. If there's one event that would suit his game down to the ground, it'd be that one. Anyone know what price he was at the start?

LuckyLloyd · 10-02-2008 7:37pm

This post has been deleted.

Decod · 10-02-2008 7:47pm

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

He may not have been priced. However, you clearly can see the future. May I balance your crystal ball; or take lessons on your advanced scouting techniques?

Thanks Lloyd, and another great result for you, big fella. You're on a bit of a roll and in danger of getting a name for yourself. Next thing we know you'll be turning pro and hooking up with some Page 3 glamour girls.

Heard you played a blinder with the short stack late on.

LuckyLloyd · 10-02-2008 7:53pm

This post has been deleted.

CourierCollie · 10-02-2008 9:07pm

Well done yesterday Lloyd. Had a wee flutter on you e/w @100-1. More than covered the rest of my losses for the weekend!

LuckyLloyd · 11-02-2008 1:08am

This post has been deleted.

Macspower · 11-02-2008 4:40am

Macspower wrote: »

after reading rag2gars blog entry I decided to have a punt for a tenner for the craic... I like a man with confidence

wtf didn't I go e/w!!!! wp garry

CourierCollie · 11-02-2008 10:15pm

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Thanks mate. Sick bet.

Oh, you've no idea just how sick! When I placed the bet I was only 50% sure Lloyd O'Farrell and LuckyLloyd were one and the same. Of course I bet twice as much on both Julian Thew and Colette Murphy, lol.
Anyone know if Gary is gonna play in the Irish Open? I'd like to get a bet on before his odds are shorter than annette15s!

rag2gar · 11-02-2008 10:31pm

CourierCollie wrote: »

Oh, you've no idea just how sick! When I placed the bet I was only 50% sure Lloyd O'Farrell and LuckyLloyd were one and the same. Of course I bet twice as much on both Julian Thew and Colette Murphy, lol.
Anyone know if Gary is gonna play in the Irish Open? I'd like to get a bet on before his odds are shorter than annette15s!

Lolerz I'm just happy to get a blogging job at the IO!!

CourierCollie · 11-02-2008 10:51pm

rag2gar wrote: »

Lolerz I'm just happy to get a blogging job at the IO!!

Does this mean we'll still see ya at the 1/2 tables in the Jackpot. Hope so, I might even learn how to play this game by watching your game.

rag2gar · 11-02-2008 11:57pm

CourierCollie wrote: »

Does this mean we'll still see ya at the 1/2 tables in the Jackpot. Hope so, I might even learn how to play this game by watching your game.

Wow dyou want my head to explode? Who is this

CourierCollie · 12-02-2008 11:07am

rag2gar wrote: »

Wow dyou want my head to explode? Who is this

Sorry,
I wasn't trying to wreck your head. Only played at the same table as you once in the Jackpot, woulda been about 24th Jan. Think I was in seat one and you in seat 2. Not a very memorable session. The best part was that there was a French guy to the right of the dealer, and everyone was trying to come up with their best French phrases!
Only half joking about trying to learn from your play. I'd always try to learn something from better players, a large group you would already have been a part of regardless of your result last week.
Names Noel btw, as you can tell from previous posts I'm more a degenerate gambler than a poker player.

rag2gar · 12-02-2008 1:31pm

CourierCollie wrote: »

Sorry,
I wasn't trying to wreck your head. Only played at the same table as you once in the Jackpot, woulda been about 24th Jan. Think I was in seat one and you in seat 2. Not a very memorable session. The best part was that there was a French guy to the right of the dealer, and everyone was trying to come up with their best French phrases!
Only half joking about trying to learn from your play. I'd always try to learn something from better players, a large group you would already have been a part of regardless of your result last week.
Names Noel btw, as you can tell from previous posts I'm more a degenerate gambler than a poker player.

Yeah I remember you now Noel. By my head exploding I mean if you keep being so nice with your compliments I'll get so big-headed that it might actually explode, ha! Not that you were wrecking my head. That was a pretty nasty session for me from what I can remember, defo didnt win anyway. Hardly anything to be learned from me that night! If you want to learn from an expert watch Keith Rooney in action in the jackpot, he's a jackpot legend:cool:

Value bets on Irish Open

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