The 6 Nations - Potenial Edge

Mellor

So the rugby world cup wasn't too long ago, and a few of us had a nice run. Most of the bookies had a huge mistake. The handicapps were easy enough to pick and the in-running was massive +EV. Total points is an easy IR market.

So, I am hoping to continue this for the 6 nations. At the start of the 6 nations I daid that betting against Ireland in the handicap group matchs would be good, as they were over-priced and because PP, Boyles or similar will recieve more money on ireland than other team, so its better for they to weight it away from ireland. Does that make sense?
Ireland lost all the handicaps btw.

So, I'm thinking that a running thread for bets on the 6 nations might be a good idea. Its a week to go so getting it up for the weekend before is best. I'll start it off I suppose.


Week one

France vrs Scotland --- France (-5pts) to Win. 10/11
Ireland vrs Italy --- Ireland (-18pts) to win 10/11

I'd rather bet €20 on France than a tenner on each.

ArmaniJeanss

Mellor wrote: »

France vrs Scotland --- France (-5pts) to Win. 10/11

Thought for a minute there that France were being asked to only give up 5 at home.
Sadly this game is in Murrayfield.

Mellor

Yeah, they are away, still a nice HC imo.
boyles have it at -6
and the england games is -14

WH BONNEY

I take on board your comments regarding the recent world cup but I am of the opinion that in general the bookies are usually quite good on there handicaps.

Having said that I see France as really good value @ -5 to beat an at best average Scottish team.

Ireland -18 is not for me. There performances @ the world cup the resultaing fall in confidence and also the incresed pressure on both management & players leads me to believe that any kind of a win here is the utmost priority.

If you are inclined to go for Ireland I would wait untill very late in the day to see what the weather conditions are. A dry calm day would obviously be more beneficial.

wixfjord

Looked at this last night and thought france were good value. Thought about it a bit tho and doesnt seem so. France away are never at their best, they have a new coach and a lot of world cup players have been gotten rid of with some retiring. Theyve a few new players and scottish rugby isnt as weak as some think, glasgow have been going well in magners and heineken and edinburgh have caused some shocks. Any team with parks paterson lamont and the back row they have cant be bad so im leaving this alone. Wales +14 look good I think. Theyve got in gatland and edwards, henson seems to be in form as does martin williams, think they will either put on over on england or go very close, especially if sackey is injured.

Mellor

France have slipped to +4 on PP, but up on other sites
If the line moves there may be sub 100 book available

France - 4 @ 10/11, scotland 10/11
France - 6 @ evens (also scotland at evens)
France -7 @ 5/4, scotland @ 4-7

badbrian

I'll be having Italy + 18 with Boyles at evens. I think a few lacklustre performances will guarantee the end of Eddie, which I and most, and therefore I assume the key players want.

Pj!

Italy +18 at evens for me as well.

That handicap is just too big!

IrishMike

France -4 and italy +18 for me.
Cant see Ireland pulling a performance together.
Remember that is a vastly improving Italian team

Niall1965

The Scots are a tempting price for the triple crown.

Mellor

I don't think Ireland will exceed 18 pts. but because the WC was poor, they will have something to prove. Add the fact that key italien players are missing, im staying away.

my only decision now is -4 or -7
On a €44 bet, the difference is €84 return or €99 return
I'm leaning to -4

Blisterman

Ireland are 4-1 on paddy power to come second in the 6 nations this year. Might be worth a shot, and hope we beat either England or france.

jameshayes

Here's the bet for tomorrow;


Italy win
England win
France win


15-1

IrishMike

Lol italy win?
With an outhalf making his debut and a scrum half that has played 3 games in the 6 nations, very optimistic James

IrishMike

My bet for tomorrow is
Italy +25 @ 1-3
England
France
Works out around 2.3-1

zAbbo

IrishMike wrote: »

Lol italy win?
With an outhalf making his debut and a scrum half that has played 3 games in the 6 nations, very optimistic James

Masi has 10 caps, plays for Biarritz, and is probably the best playmaker they have. Granted he's in at 10, but I think he's a very capable player.

The smart money is on Wales to beat England.

jameshayes

I'm heading along tomorrow so there is no chance of inplay bets which is a bummer but Yeah, I think italy can do us tomorrow... New coach, fresh players....

Mellor

"fresh players"

is that a nice way to say inexpierenced?
There are missing their best player imo

IrishMike

zAbbo wrote: »

Masi has 10 caps, plays for Biarritz, and is probably the best playmaker they have. Granted he's in at 10, but I think he's a very capable player.

The smart money is on Wales to beat England.

Masi has NO comptitive starts @ 10 for Italy.
That half back partnership have never played together.
There will be a lack of fluency its inevitable.
Ireland will win but not by a crazy amount - thats my prediction

jameshayes

I hope i'm wrong!

WH BONNEY

jameshayes wrote: »

I hope i'm wrong!

You are

jameshayes

It's practically the number 1 rule in betting - never bet against on a team who just changed their coach....

jameshayes

Italy are a powerhouse team - we cant play that way anymore - which was proved in the WC. I was at the Georgia game and seen it first hand - all they need to do is keep a close eye on ROG (who doesn't play well on the back foot) and find the holes in our team (trimble) and they'll be away with it... they play durty - we cant.

badbrian

I'm also tempted by HT FT Italy Ireland - 8/1 generally available.
Problem is I am going to the match hoping Ireland put in a dodgy display.

dsmythy

jameshayes wrote: »

It's practically the number 1 rule in betting - never bet against on a team who just changed their coach....

Except Newcastle.

Royale with Cheese

Can't see Wales beating England. It's basically a club team without their overseas players, who've been their best performers this season.

WH BONNEY

jameshayes wrote: »

It's practically the number 1 rule in betting - never bet against on a team who just changed their coach....

Off the top of my head, Newcastle United might show you why using that rule could prove futile.

I hear all your saying but seriously I think theres a better chance of Linfield playing their home games in Croker than there is of the Azzuri winning tomorrow.

lol i c dsmythy got there before me.

jameshayes

dsmythy wrote: »

Except Newcastle.

Newcastle are on the list with liverpool... we all got that one wrong!

Chucky the tree

Italy +8 at half-time, Scotland/france fpr ht/ft @ 7's

dsmythy

Italy with 8 at half time? That's a stonking good bet! I'm getting a little bit on.

myflipflops

jameshayes wrote: »

Italy are a powerhouse team - we cant play that way anymore - which was proved in the WC. I was at the Georgia game and seen it first hand - all they need to do is keep a close eye on ROG (who doesn't play well on the back foot) and find the holes in our team (trimble) and they'll be away with it... they play durty - we cant.

I hope you haven't backed Italy for much because i think your thinking is flawed. Picking out Trimble as a weak like defensively is fine (a centre playing on the wing) but who do Italy have to take advantage of his inexperience? Robertson and Canavosio arent exactly top notch operators. If anything, having someone like Trimble running at those guys is an advantage to Ireland.

You're correct in saying that O'Gara doesn't play well on the back foot but not many outhalves do. Also, i doubt we'll be on the back foot at all. Fair enough, the Italian front row look better than ours but elsewhere in the pack we definately look stronger. They'll miss Bortalami a lot and with Del Fava having been pretty poor for Ulster this year, i don't think our pack will fear them that much.

Italy look very vulnerable to me. The half back partnership is untested as a pairing and Masi has never played at 10 in a game of anyting like this intensity. Someone states that he plays for Biarritz but has anyone else seen Biarritz this year? They have been absolutely crap both in europe and the Top 14. Masi is a decent centre but a long way off being a test ouhalf (think Geordan Murphy starting outhalf for us). I know very little about the scrum half so i will reserve opinion but i don't fancy his chances.

Personally, i think this game is best watched. A lot of questions have been asked of Ireland since the World Cup and i want to see them play before i make any decision on this 6 Nations. I believe that the major physical training camps they underwent leading up to the World Cup should now come into play. The players are in the best basic physical shape of their lives and now they have games under their belt which they didn;t have in France. The Italy game will tell us plenty about them. My only bet on the 6 nations currently is O'Gara for top Irish tryscorer each way at 40/1 with Boyles.

Aplogies for the long, ranting nature of this post.

Mellor

Royale with Cheese wrote: »

Can't see Wales beating England. It's basically a club team without their overseas players, who've been their best performers this season.

Basically a club team???
Its the ospreys, 13 out of 15 starters.

Royale with Cheese

Mellor wrote: »

Basically a club team???
Its the ospreys, 13 out of 15 starters.

Yes, that's exactly what I meant. And not all of those 13 actually start for the Ospreys. Not exactly a healthy position for Welsh rugby.

zAbbo

zAbbo wrote: »

The smart money is on Wales to beat England.

kenco

Wales must have been a tasty price at half time!

Nice one zAbbo I was thinking that myself but didnt have the you know whats to put money on it....

fatgav

i got wales at 8s on betfair when it was 19-12. would love to know how high up it went before they came back into it. england never looked confident in the second half. the england team of a couple of years back would have run at least forty in from the position they were at at half time.

had ireland to win in a double with scotland tomorrow...

been a good day for me with the soccer etc.. if trap is confirmed 'ill be laughing.

Royale with Cheese

As a Wales fan I really couldn't be an happier that I was wrong about them. Guess I underestimated how sh*t England would be too...

Collie D

Bah! Been saying it for years and I ignored my own preaching yesterday. Always take Italy on the handicap. Bookies always underestimate them. So yesterday I go and completely ignore my own rugby betting rule and get stung. Making matters worse I double Ireland with Wales.

gerire

Was watching Soccer Am yesterday and that pr1ck Austin Healy now has to "take one for the team" as England lost

As todays game appears as if it will be the tightest I've gone for a simple single; Half time / Full Time: Any Result Involving a Draw @ 13/2

wyndham

Mellor wrote: »

Week one

France vrs Scotland --- France (-5pts) to Win. 10/11
Ireland vrs Italy --- Ireland (-18pts) to win 10/11

I'd rather bet €20 on France than a tenner on each.

Nice pick on France, they were badly mispriced. Hope you did put the 20 on them and not a tenner on each!

Mellor

€50 on france
I was never taking Ireland at that price, I thought they might of done it, but there was no value in it, was just highlight the difference in handicap.

France were massively underated



Stay tuned for next weeks pick

delta_bravo

cheers mellor, did quite well this weekend on your tips

Mellor

Ok, next weeks handicapps are up.
All bets 10/11

Handicapps are;
Wales -9 vrs Scotland
France - 13 vrs Ireland
Italy +15 vrs England

Obviously, the away teams are the reverse.


I was thinking about weighting today, and judging on last weeks performance, I was expecting italy to pushed up a little, they had a good game verses englands poor one.

I expect the ireland game to be tight for that spread and will steer clear. Anything could happen.

I expect england and wales both to be winners, but after mistakes at the end of the wales game i can't back them.


My pick for this week is Wales at -9

Pj!

A lot tighter handicaps this week I reckon.

I'm tempted by France -11 with skybet though

Mellor

what are wales on SB

Pj!

-9 is the best I see around for Wales.

Killme00

Mellor wrote: »

Handicapps are;
Wales -9 vrs Scotland
France - 13 vrs Ireland
Italy +15 vrs England

Wales -9 is a great bet.

Mellor

Killme00 wrote: »

Wales -9 is a great bet.

glad you like my picks,


Update
Wales -9 is Evens in Boyles
England have dropped to -13 in Paddypower.


I'm still sticking with wales as my pick for this week, but I expect england to beat their handicap, something which they have only done a few times.

adrian522

Don't agree on england think Italy will be closer than 13,
Also I think Ireland will be within 13 of France, having seen the teams.

Killme00

My Bets

Wales -9 10/11 €50
Double Wales -9, England -13 €25

Also Rugby League
Double Bradford -8 Leeds -6 €25

would have included Harlequins +10 vs Wigan but hate to bet against Wigan

TomPich

England all the way im afraid