Buy now or wait?

janmc

Just a quick poll to try and see what the general opinion on the market is at the moment.

Background - we will be first time buyers, currently renting a 1 bed apt for 1300/mth in a great location. Apt itself is fine, but it's definitely not a spacious penthouse!

Can just about afford a 2 bed house in Crumlin/Drimnagh.

As our rent is expensive (and increasing), we're starting to feel that even with the current uncertainty, we'd be better off buying.

Saruman

Where is the poll?

You might have to move away from the great location. I was forced to westmeath in 2005 but i got a 3 bed detached bungalow in a lovely quiet estate for 190k, a bargain even in 05.
The distance sucks, however i can still get to Dublin a lot faster than a lot of people who live in Dublin.

thewing

Wait.....

janmc

Saruman wrote: »

Where is the poll?

Oops - should be there now

Saruman

janmc wrote: »

Oops - should be there now

yay a poll

Tim Robbins

janmc wrote: »

Just a quick poll to try and see what the general opinion on the market is at the moment.

Background - we will be first time buyers, currently renting a 1 bed apt for 1300/mth in a great location. Apt itself is fine, but it's definitely not a spacious penthouse!

Can just about afford a 2 bed house in Crumlin/Drimnagh.

As our rent is expensive (and increasing), we're starting to feel that even with the current uncertainty, we'd be better off buying.

Wait until you have a very good reason to buy e.g. you get a great deal second hand. Interest rates are going up would imply prices are going to be no great increase in prices, if anything there will be a continuing decrease until there is confidence in the property market again.

kmick

As it is not an investment but rather a family home there is no reason not to buy now. Prices have fallen and continue to do so but really it is irrelevant if you live there. If you think of it one way the rent you save 1300x12=15600 will more than offset any fall you are likely to experience in Crumlin and as the stats show first time buyers typically stay in their first home for 5 years the market is likely to stabilise over that period.

One thing I would say is (and I imagine you know this yourself) go in way under the asking price just to keep the sellers on their toes. Be careful in Crumlin as well (I lived there for a while). While it is a nice family area there are some parts which are worse than others. Make sure you visit the area and scope it out at different times of the day esp early and late evening as that seems to be when the undead emerge.

Cathmandooo

If you can only 'just about' afford this 2 bed house I would hold off as you might not be able to afford an increase in interest rates over the next year. If you're buying now you'd want to have a bigger cushion than being at your financial limit already.

I didn't spot the 'hold out for a year' option and picked wait until... I'd give the market a year to settle down. No one can predict what will happen though, it's pretty much a lottery at the moment.

mastermind2005

kmick wrote: »

If you think of it one way the rent you save 1300x12=15600 will more than offset any fall you are likely to experience in Crumlin and as the stats show first time buyers typically stay in their first home for 5 years the market is likely to stabilise over that period

house prices are falling by on average 1.1% monthly afaik

so 1.1 x 12 will add to if the market stays the same about 10% - 13% decrease P.A....


so say for arguments sake 11% of your 2 bed which id put somewhere about 300k would come to somewhere around 33k drop annuallly....

so its more like 15600 vs 33000

janmc

We were kind of agreeing with kmick - as we'll be saving on rent, it'd be worth a small drop in the market to buy now.

We went to see a house that went on the market in the new year, and there were 7 couples at the first viewing, which makes me wonder if things are changing.

Ginny

We're looking now, 2 FTBs, full approved looking to buy a 3 bed place with one of us living in it and renting a room out too.
One of the places we're interested in was selling at €450k last summer and is €370k now.
Our plan is to hold onto it for about 3-4 years, and by going in together we can afford a 3 bed which in the long run will be easier to sell when it comes to it, and is a much sounder investment.
I think if you're planning on buying and keeping it for a significant time, then go for it.

is_that_so

Don't live in Dublin but finding prices in my part of the world , having taken a dip seem to be hovering around the same price. It does seem as if prices will go down more but no-one can agree for how long. I heard the summer suggested as the lowest point by one source (can't remember who it was).

My 2c , if you really want to move and the property is within your reach I would say go for it. Interest rates by the look of it seem to have stabilised for now. And then of course there is the emotional investment in your very own home. Hard to put a price on that IMO.

Ginny

Oh and I agree about the going in under the asking price, the usual rule around here is -€20k.

Afuera

What happens when you bang the figures into this?
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/10/business/2007_BUYRENT_GRAPHIC.html

kmick

mastermind2005 wrote: »

house prices are falling by on average 1.1% monthly afaik
so 1.1 x 12 will add to if the market stays the same about 10% - 13% decrease P.A....so say for arguments sake 11% of your 2 bed which id put somewhere about 300k would come to somewhere around 33k drop annuallly....
so its more like 15600 vs 33000

Yeah but if the market keeps dropping at 13% a year everyone will start buying again. I figure a total correction of 25% will be as bad as it gets. We must have seen 15% of that already. So if he buys now I would guesss he should lose no more than 10%. Completely irrelevant if you are living there for 5 years or more. Bank of kmick* issues strong buy recomendation followed by medium term hold.

bank of kmick offers no guarantees. bank of kmick is not regulated by the financial services authority. prices may rise as well as fall. caveat emptor etc etc

gurramok

GinnyJo wrote: »

We're looking now, 2 FTBs, full approved looking to buy a 3 bed place with one of us living in it and renting a room out too.
One of the places we're interested in was selling at €450k last summer and is €370k now.
Our plan is to hold onto it for about 3-4 years, and by going in together we can afford a 3 bed which in the long run will be easier to sell when it comes to it, and is a much sounder investment.
I think if you're planning on buying and keeping it for a significant time, then go for it.

Whats the point of getting your own place when you have to live with a stranger for the next 3-4 years at least so as to afford the mortgage?:eek:

OP dont say where they are living now, i suspect the great location is either central/upmarket area and then trading 'down' to a perceived downmarket area in order to afford to buy something, its a trade off.

I'd wait at least 2 years for a FTB to dive in, we ain't at the bottom yet, long way to go.

janmc

Afuera wrote: »

What happens when you bang the figures into this?
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/10/business/2007_BUYRENT_GRAPHIC.html

That's actually very interesting. It said if we'd be staying there for 5 years, it'd be better to buy, based on rents going up by 5% per year (ours went up 8% this year) and the house appreciating in value by 3% per year.

Of course it doesn't allow for a collapse in the market.

From the poll it looks as though the vast majority is saying to wait it out.

Afuera

janmc wrote: »

That's actually very interesting. It said if we'd be staying there for 5 years, it'd be better to buy, based on rents going up by 5% per year (ours went up 8% this year) and the house appreciating in value by 3% per year.

Since that calculator is geared towards the American market you should probably also consider the stamp duty that you would have to pay if you wanted to trade up after buying now. FWIW I think that unless it is the house you want to spend the rest of your life in, it is a bit early to be jumping in to the market... there is still a lot of supply out there to suggest that it will probably get worse before it gets better.

soupie

I closed on a sale just a couple of days ago, I am buying to live so the market doesnt bother me at all. I can easily afford the mortgage and my plan is to be in it for quite a number of years by which time who knows what the market will be like.

What I would say is that if you are buying knock circa 10% of the asking price as that is what I done. I offered on three houses in total and had all offers accepted.

As long as the mortgage is not stretching you and your buying to live I dont see a need to hold off

A Random Walk

kmick wrote: »

If you think of it one way the rent you save 1300x12=15600 will more than offset any fall you are likely to experience in Crumlin and as the stats show first time buyers typically stay in their first home for 5 years the market is likely to stabilise over that period.

Oh please, they'll be paying interest on a loan as well so any savings in rent will be more than offset by interest. If you're going to justify a purchase, at least try and get your figures right.

What if the price "stabilises" at 40% less than what it is now? No matter what anyone else says here, no-one knows how far this market will fall - and there are quite a few of us who have called it right so far who think it will plummet over the next couple of years.

This thing of "if you're going to live there for a while it doesn't matter" is yet another scam phrase put out by the property industry. You might as well take a pile of cash and burn it in your back garden if it means so little to you.

Personally I think 2008 should be a wait and see year for anyone thinking of buying.

mastermind2005

kmick wrote: »

Yeah but if the market keeps dropping at 13% a year everyone will start buying again. I figure a total correction of 25% will be as bad as it gets. We must have seen 15% of that already. So if he buys now I would guesss he should lose no more than 10%. Completely irrelevant if you are living there for 5 years or more. Bank of kmick* issues strong buy recomendation followed by medium term hold.

bank of kmick offers no guarantees. bank of kmick is not regulated by the financial services authority. prices may rise as well as fall. caveat emptor etc etc

Bank of mick must be looking to sell up himself me recons...

whets your 25% total drop based on?

The prices we have these days are equivalent to about 2 years ago and they were still rising then... So Is not the prices of the houses its getting the money to buy them! if people were given the money most would buy something they cannot afford to repay and that's what happened really, loads and loads of easy money for anyone or anything that could sign their name, the whole country went property mad, now its a case of people defaulting on mortgagees and buyers not getting as much money anymore so in accordance the prices will have to lower considerably to suit the mass market..

>MM<

Colonel Sanders

maybe slightly off topic but still relevant to this thread I was just wondering if banks attitude to lending has changed over the past 6-9 months with the credit crunch we are seeing. I have read of some banks incresing variable rates by 0.1%. Just wondering have their tightened their lending criteria also.

someuser90

they are tightening their lending, which means less people have less to buy with, which reduces prices further

buying into a crashing market is financial suicide

I will wait a few years, rents have peaked too (in dublin anyway)

check out: http://daftwatch.atspace.com/ (major glut of unsolded and unrented properties)

patrickolee

I went for 'buy now if...'. My if would be that you are in a secure job, wont be streching too badly to make payments if we get 0.5% increase in mortgage rates and intend to stay where you are buying for 5ish years.

If all of those are true, then now is an excellent time to buy as its your market. The market will recover eventually and if you try to wait until the bottom you will invariably miss it as everyone else will be doing the same. Rents are rising quite quickly of late as a result of a great number of people sitting back and waiting for the 'bottom'. When all those people wake up and decide that actually the bottom has been reached (probably precipated by some RTE economist deciding the property falling story has gotten rather old!), be that in 6 months or 6 years, there will be a huge increase and you will find it difficult to find a place.

So short answer, if you're in it for a home, you have nothing to worry about; the current conditions offer an opportunity.

Ginny

gurramok wrote: »

Whats the point of getting your own place when you have to live with a stranger for the next 3-4 years at least so as to afford the mortgage?:eek:

OP dont say where they are living now, i suspect the great location is either central/upmarket area and then trading 'down' to a perceived downmarket area in order to afford to buy something, its a trade off.

I'd wait at least 2 years for a FTB to dive in, we ain't at the bottom yet, long way to go.

Hmmmmmm never said we couldn't afford the mortgage without a lodger, we can.
It also won't be a stranger, and it won't be 3-4 years, thats a lot of assumptions being made:D

ian_m

Thats good advice patrickolee.

Amberman

A Random Walk wrote: »

Oh please, they'll be paying interest on a loan as well so any savings in rent will be more than offset by interest. If you're going to justify a purchase, at least try and get your figures right.

What if the price "stabilises" at 40% less than what it is now? No matter what anyone else says here, no-one knows how far this market will fall - and there are quite a few of us who have called it right so far who think it will plummet over the next couple of years.

This thing of "if you're going to live there for a while it doesn't matter" is yet another scam phrase put out by the property industry. You might as well take a pile of cash and burn it in your back garden if it means so little to you.

Personally I think 2008 should be a wait and see year for anyone thinking of buying.

excellent general advice. As a rule of thumb in any property bubble, I normally take a view that the contraction lasts about 70% as long as the expansion lasted because fear is a stronger emotion that greed and so drives prices down faster than they rose. So I expect the bottom in the Irish housing market to be reached in about 2015-2018, depending on where you measure the start of teh boom from. Heres a nifty graph to illustrate this beautifully.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/

In the meantime, give your cash to Warren Buffett to manage for you if you know nothing of investing. Ticker is BRK.B. He has a pretty good track record over that period of time. (he'll probably treble it for you in a 10 year period minimum)

dewsbury

It may seem odd but bear with me..

Prices are falling and will continue to do so.
Buy at the point that they start rising and you will know that you are buying more-or-less at the bottom.

Ginny

If you can pinpoint that moment you'd be doing good to be mortgaged approved and also get a house before anyone else in interested in it.
To be honest so far the "Crash is coming" brigade is not out on the ground buying houses and are just going on second hand knowledge, so far in the last 3 weeks i've been interested in 3 houses and they've been snapped up under my nose for the asking price, so although the prices have dropped since this time last year houses are being sold and are not going for a lot less then the asking price, well in my area at least.

How Strange

GinnyJo...If you can pinpoint that moment you'd be doing good to be mortgaged approved and also get a house before anyone else in interested in it.
To be honest so far the "Crash is coming" brigade is not out on the ground buying houses and are just going on second hand knowledge, so far in the last 3 weeks i've been interested in 3 houses and they've been snapped up under my nose for the asking price, so although the prices have dropped since this time last year houses are being sold and are not going for a lot less then the asking price, well in my area at least.

GinnyJo, in the Crumlin area - on the main Crumlin Rd into town to be exact - I drive past four houses that have been on sale since around Sept. One has a price reduced sign up and it was put up at a time when Bertie and his band of merry men were telling us that there was no property crisis and to stop worrying. I would've thought that this part of Crumlin would have traditionally been popular with couples etc trading up from apartments because of the location and proximity to town.

So in your case it must be because your area is more sought after. I know of lots of similar examples of properties just not moving. Maybe the vendors are fixed on their asking price and won't negotiate; I don't know but it is obvious that houses in general aren't selling quickly.

There is an apt on Patrick St with a sign hanging over its balcony saying 'buy me, €320k'.

These seem to be desperate times indeed.

kmick

A Random Walk wrote: »

Oh please, they'll be paying interest on a loan as well so any savings in rent will be more than offset by interest. If you're going to justify a purchase, at least try and get your figures right.

What if the price "stabilises" at 40% less than what it is now? No matter what anyone else says here, no-one knows how far this market will fall - and there are quite a few of us who have called it right so far who think it will plummet over the next couple of years.

This thing of "if you're going to live there for a while it doesn't matter" is yet another scam phrase put out by the property industry. You might as well take a pile of cash and burn it in your back garden if it means so little to you.

Personally I think 2008 should be a wait and see year for anyone thinking of buying.

I think the point I am making is that at least you will be paying your 15k towards your own mortgage rather than someone elses. As long as you can afford the payments and you do have the 10% deposit I say go for it. If it is your family home then what you gain from it compared to renting is not measurable. Screw the begrudgers who will tell you to rent a 1 bedroom shoebox for ever - paying the mortgage of some solicitor from ballsbridge.

Amberman

kmick wrote: »

I think the point I am making is that at least you will be paying your 15k towards your own mortgage rather than someone elses. As long as you can afford the payments and you do have the 10% deposit I say go for it. If it is your family home then what you gain from it compared to renting is not measurable. Screw the begrudgers who will tell you to rent a 1 bedroom shoebox for ever - paying the mortgage of some solicitor from ballsbridge.

You're nuts

gurramok

GinnyJo wrote:

Hmmmmmm never said we couldn't afford the mortgage without a lodger, we can.
It also won't be a stranger, and it won't be 3-4 years, thats a lot of assumptions being made

Good for you, not many people can take in a lodger they 'know' if they wanted to.
Sounds like you don't need a lodger when you can well afford the mortgage, then why mention a lodger in the first place?

patrickolee wrote: »

I went for 'buy now if...'. My if would be that you are in a secure job, wont be streching too badly to make payments if we get 0.5% increase in mortgage rates and intend to stay where you are buying for 5ish years.

If all of those are true, then now is an excellent time to buy as its your market. The market will recover eventually and if you try to wait until the bottom you will invariably miss it as everyone else will be doing the same. Rents are rising quite quickly of late as a result of a great number of people sitting back and waiting for the 'bottom'. When all those people wake up and decide that actually the bottom has been reached (probably precipated by some RTE economist deciding the property falling story has gotten rather old!), be that in 6 months or 6 years, there will be a huge increase and you will find it difficult to find a place.

So short answer, if you're in it for a home, you have nothing to worry about; the current conditions offer an opportunity.

To sum up, if you don't care about losing money or a buying a deflated asset to live in for 5+yrs, go ahead and buy.
I agree that there are people who would buy based on those circumstances, some would be desperate where emotions enter the arena, they wouldn't be that numerous!

Misleading about rents, they are about the same as they were in 2002 inflation adjusted afaik.
As said the amount of rental properties available has doubled since this time last year, thats a good sign to continue to rent as you can negotiate a cheaper rent or jump ship to choose literally tens of properties in your immediate area
By your analysis, when all those renters jump ship to buy at the 'bottom' whenever that is, the rental market will collapse so winners all around for buyers and renters, thats a good thing!

someuser90

follow patrickolee & kmick crazy vested interest advice :rolleyes: to loose thousands of euro, by not waiting a few years to buy

why the fcuk would anyone buy into an obviously crashing market???

these graphs show how the number of rental properties has doubled in 6 months :eek: http://daftwatch.atspace.com/

janmc

someuser90 wrote: »

these graphs show how the number of rental properties has doubled in 6 months :eek: http://daftwatch.atspace.com/

I'm a little sceptical about those figures, because Daft has only become popular for sales relatively recently. I'd be more interested in the same for Myhome to make a decent judgement.

Edit - I just saw you mentioned rental not sales... apologies

Firetrap

I want to buy my own place (it will be on my own) but I'm happy to sit and wait for a while and save up money towards the big purchase. I honestly don't know how much more prices are going to drop but they sure as heck aren't rising at the moment.I've got a reasonably well paid secure job but if I was to buy now, the mortgage repayments would put me to the pin of my collar. I don't want to buy a cardboard shoebox and hope that someone will take it off my hands in a few years time if there's any chance at all of my getting what a lot of FTBs really want - the classic semi-D with front and back gardens. I don't want to resort to taking in tenants to pay the mortgage - I've had enough of renting with strangers to last me a lifetime.

Amberman

If you absoultely cannot wait to buy a house and you are happy to watch it go to (IMHO) half its current REAL value in 8-10 years, do it. If thats the price you are willing to pay to get out of living with strangers...then thats the right thing for you...horse for courses. Personally, id rather watch a sucker take the capital hit.

superweld

Amberman wrote: »

If you absoultely cannot wait to buy a house and you are happy to watch it go to (IMHO) half its current REAL value in 8-10 years, do it. If thats the price you are willing to pay to get out of living with strangers...then thats the right thing for you...horse for courses. Personally, id rather watch a sucker take the capital hit.

half??? is that a pessimistic or optimistic attitude?? (you're going to say realistic )

seriously, you think house prices will half in value? and you say REAL value meaning they will be a lot less then half the current asking prices?

:eek:

mikemac

Firetrap wrote: »

I want to buy my own place (it will be on my own) but I'm happy to sit and wait for a while and save up money towards the big purchase. I honestly don't know how much more prices are going to drop but they sure as heck aren't rising at the moment.I've got a reasonably well paid secure job but if I was to buy now, the mortgage repayments would put me to the pin of my collar. I don't want to buy a cardboard shoebox and hope that someone will take it off my hands in a few years time if there's any chance at all of my getting what a lot of FTBs really want - the classic semi-D with front and back gardens. I don't want to resort to taking in tenants to pay the mortgage - I've had enough of renting with strangers to last me a lifetime.

Excellent post and it sums up my situation also.
I could afford a shoebox in Dublin or a decent house outside Dublin and spend hours commuting but for now, I'm happy saving over €1,000 per month and to pay reasonable rent to live 5 minutes from work.
I've had enough of renting with strangers also, been doing it for too many years so no way would I take a lodger into my home if I could avoid it

One day I'll own my own place but not yet and not until it's a property that I desire rather than any property just for the sake of getting on the ladder (what's the opposite of ladder? )

DublinDilbert

superweld wrote: »

half??? is that a pessimistic or optimistic attitude?? (you're going to say realistic )

seriously, you think house prices will half in value? and you say REAL value meaning they will be a lot less then half the current asking prices?

:eek:

Well if you consider that asking prices have dropped by 10% ->12% last year, thats going by the banks figures.

In reality prices have dropped some where in the region of 15%->20%, due to on the way up properties sold well above the asking price, and on the way down they are selling way bellow the asking price.

If this was to persist for a couple of years, the drops would amount to what the poster above indicated.

The fact at the moment is that although some houses are selling, there's many apartments that are not even getting one viewing, can't see this changing. In many areas new apartments aren't selling and the asking price is way less than second hand apartments in the exact same area.

janmc

micmclo wrote: »

I'm happy saving over €1,000 per month and to pay reasonable rent to live 5 minutes from work.

My problem with this is (I'm the OP btw) is that in my case I'm paying so much on rent that I can only save €500 approx per month. I know it's better than nothing, but I feel that my rent is eating into my potential savings/investment.

My views after taking everyone's advice on board, is to block myhome and daft from my computer for 6 months, and then look at things again then. In 6 months time, things may look a little clearer.

Thanks everyone for your help, and I'll keep an eye on this thread in case there are any more comments.

mikemac

Best of luck OP whatever you decide and if you want more help saving money maybe stroll over to this forum

It helps me anyway

JJJJNR

So does anyone think as the US markets drift into a recession that right now might be the last chance you'll actually get to own your own house, or will the banks always give out mortgages, even in a recession.

superweld

JJJJNR wrote: »

So does anyone think as the US markets drift into a recession that right now might be the last chance you'll actually get to own your own house, or will the banks always give out mortgages, even in a recession.

good question. 100% mortgages seem to be limited now to public sector and certain professionals. does anyone reckon that banks will stop giving 95% mortgages at some stage to us 'common' people?

SkepticOne

JJJJNR wrote: »

So does anyone think as the US markets drift into a recession that right now might be the last chance you'll actually get to own your own house, or will the banks always give out mortgages, even in a recession.

The important thing to remember is that if borrowing becomes harder then house prices must fall. The easy credit of recent years did not make buying a house any easier, it just forced up prices.

patrickolee

superweld wrote: »

good question. 100% mortgages seem to be limited now to public sector and certain professionals. does anyone reckon that banks will stop giving 95% mortgages at some stage to us 'common' people?

Good question indeed. Did anyone hear the announcement that EU is about to open up the credit market? On Morning Ireland this morning. It will make it easier, for example, for a German bank to lend to a Spanish borrower, or maybe to an Irish borrower? What effect do you think that will have?

How Strange wrote: »

GinnyJo, in the Crumlin area - on the main Crumlin Rd into town to be exact - I drive past four houses that have been on sale since around Sept. One has a price reduced sign up and it was put up at a time when Bertie and his band of merry men were telling us that there was no property crisis and to stop worrying. I would've thought that this part of Crumlin would have traditionally been popular with couples etc trading up from apartments because of the location and proximity to town.

Interesting that you should use that example. I live about 200m from there and noticed that sign myself. It has as you said been there for quite a while. However that is Crumlin Road, a very busy noisy road and one of the last places I personally would buy. If you were to drive up the next road east, you would have seen a few house with Sold and Sale Agreed signs. To be fair, you would also have seen a few houses with For sales signs that never sold, but the point is, those 3 houses are a very special case.

To the OP, waiting 6 months may be no harm. Best of luck.

Amberman

superweld wrote: »

half??? is that a pessimistic or optimistic attitude?? (you're going to say realistic )

seriously, you think house prices will half in value? and you say REAL value meaning they will be a lot less then half the current asking prices?

:eek:

Its simply my opinion. People don't understand REAL values very well. (Id say this post will stun a lot of people) Let me put it to you like this...the definition of inflation is the rate of expansion of the money supply...it is NOT NOT NOT the increase in prices of a basket of goods (which is caused by money supply expansion) as measured by the ECB or whoever. So the money supply is expanding at 12-14% per annum (I cant be bothered to source this.,..someone please provide a source here). That is the TRUE inflation rate in the ECB right now...@12% The pensioners/public sector workers don't get this as a pay rise each year

The REALLY REALLY REALLY big lie that the ECB and every other central bank in the world tells the unwashed is that they CAUSE and KNOW they cause inflation (which is essentially a tax)...but they sure as hell don't want you to know that, while they tell you that they're doing everything to bring it under control. Its a bare faced scam when you really understand it.

Therefore to stop falling in REAL, the price of property needs to rise by the rate of money supply expansion each year. People..we have a fiat currency and fractional reserve banking system...backed by nothing and expandable at a whim...these asset bubbles are inevitable. Understand what those 2 things are and you are on your way to being a super investor.

LAst year ACTUAL property prices fell by 12% but the MEASURING STICK (currency value) was shortened by about 14% so the real value of property fell last year by 26%.

Some clever person please go away and measure property prices in a scare commodity (try oil and gold) in the last 12 -15 years, and you will prob find house prices have hardly moved when measured in something more stable that currency.

Based on all that, I think 50% is optomistic...we're already half way there IN REAL TERMS...could be much worse...50% might be the ACTUAL fall in 8 years time or so. The UK has just had teh worst 1 month fall since (gulp) 1986. And we all know what happened then and how long it took to come back.

Its gonna be bad, real bad.

kmick

someuser90 wrote: »

follow patrickolee & kmick crazy vested interest advice :rolleyes: to loose thousands of euro, by not waiting a few years to buy
why the fcuk would anyone buy into an obviously crashing market???
these graphs show how the number of rental properties has doubled in 6 months :eek: http://daftwatch.atspace.com/

Im not a vested interest I am just a working stiff with a mortgage and a house I bought 6 years ago before the market went crazy. And the guy wants to buy a family home not a rental property so why would he care about rental property occupancy rates. Just because I take an opposite position to you dont try and attack my credibility.

To the OP - none of us have a clue what way the market will go and as you say you cant afford to save more than 500/month beacuse of rent. Well take your rent + that 500 and put it towards a mortgage. Its your family home - I am going to keep saying it because it does not seem to be sinking in.

patrickolee

kmick wrote: »

Im not a vested interest I am just a working stiff with a mortgage and a house I bought 6 years ago before the market went crazy. And the guy wants to buy a family home not a rental property so why would he care about rental property occupancy rates. Just because I take an opposite position to you dont try and attack my credibility.

Ditto for me... not a vested interest, just a lowly programmer. But it's easier for them to think of us as vested interests as this way they can understand why someone would say something to contradict their viewpoint. If we weren't vested interests it might be leave open the possibility that they were wrong! Shock horror.

mayhem#

As prices will only go down I would wait for a year at least.
However if you do decide that you want to buy now do drive a hard bargain.
Any seller who manages to sell for anything near the asking price is extremely lucky...

E.

SkepticOne

kmick wrote: »

And the guy wants to buy a family home not a rental property so why would he care about rental property occupancy rates.

It is valid to draw comparisons with the rental market, imo for two reasons. 1) If the rental market fails to produce returns for investors the value of investment properties will fall and this will have a downward effect prices generally. 2) The options for renters will improve and the balance shifts in favour of waiting and renting rather than buying now.

To the OP - none of us have a clue what way the market will go and as you say you cant afford to save more than 500/month beacuse of rent. Well take your rent + that 500 and put it towards a mortgage. Its your family home - I am going to keep saying it because it does not seem to be sinking in.

How do you know no one else has a clue?

Sometimes it is cheaper to rent than to buy and the money saved through renting can be invested and put towards the eventual purchase of a house. You don't seem to be taking this into consideration.

By your reasoning, it never makes sense to rent no matter how overvalued house prices get.