Am I Being Paranoid

Kamaldihnio

Is this just loser talk. I keep getting outdrawn in every single online tournament I play. I thought I was being paranoid but it just keeps happening. Last night I played 3 tournaments and got knocked out like this:

10k MTT 1. My QQ gets beaten by JJ, all the chips are in preflop.

6K MTT 2. My AA gets beaten by k9 of diamonds, all chips are in pre flop

50$ STT 3. K10 gets beaten by QJ, I make a button raise, bet flop which is 10 2 7, one caller pushes, I have to call and he turns over QJ and hits 9 on turn and 8 on river to make a straight.

Ok this is just last night but this has been going on for a while now. I am getting fairly sick of it. I even went to the fitzwilliam to play live as I just could not stand the thoughts of online poker.

Its like I am never going to win a MTT again because you can bet any money in the world that I will be outdrawn somewhere. I really mean this, ok sometimes I am going to make bad calls but what about all the times that I am winning and I end up losing, its ridiculous.

Does anyone else feel like this at all and only play live games? Are the bad beats on IPOKER off the wall, or is it just me.

PS I know you are going to say its just me, Im on a bad run etc etc and I am going to get stick but I'm in work and was thinking of the 3 beats in the only 3tournaments I played last night and then thought of all the other beats I have had to stop me from winning certain tourneys lately and I just felt I should post this.

phantom_lord

Kamaldihnio wrote: »

10k MTT 1. My QQ gets beaten by JJ, all the chips are in preflop.

6K MTT 2. My AA gets beaten by k9 of diamonds, all chips are in pre flop

50$ STT 3. K10 gets beaten by QJ, I make a button raise, bet flop which is 10 2 7, one caller pushes, I have to call and he turns over QJ and hits 9 on turn and 8 on river to make a straight.

equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	81.966%  	81.75% 	00.22% 	      50391324 	   135234.00   { QQ }
Hand 1: 	18.034%  	17.81% 	00.22% 	      10981152 	   135234.00   { JJ }

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	82.727%  	82.53% 	00.20% 	       8479188 	    20034.00   { AA }
Hand 1: 	17.273%  	17.08% 	00.20% 	       1754568 	    20034.00   { Kd9d }

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	73.384%  	73.38% 	00.00% 	        139489 	        0.00   { KTs, KTo }
Hand 1: 	26.616%  	26.62% 	00.00% 	         50591 	        0.00   { QJs, QJo }

gondorff

I was in a 4-way all in situation the other night on stars. Seven handed, JJ v QQ v KK v AA. I have just NEVER seen that in real life. Never.

My QQ held up.
Got outdrawn later on though obviously :mad:

Mellor

OP, your chance of losing those three hands in isolation is about 1%. Outdraws happen. Good and bad streaks. Best example of me is over the last 8k hands, i have gotten AA maybe 30 times, its my biggest loser. win rate 80% (this is pretty low consider al the hands that are taken down PF), of the hanbds I lost most of it went in PF, Cooler streaks happen.

I was in a 4-way all in situation the other night on stars. Seven handed, JJ v QQ v KK v AA. I have just NEVER seen that in real life. Never.

Please don't be stupid. These happen all the time live. Christmas game at the JP, three players se a flop, get it all-in, set vrs set vrs set, QQ held up? or it out drew the AA

bohsman

gondorff wrote: »

I was in a 4-way all in situation the other night on stars. Seven handed, JJ v QQ v KK v AA. I have just NEVER seen that in real life. Never.

My QQ held up.
Got outdrawn later on though obviously :mad:

http://www.break.com/index/a-crazy-game-of-poker.html

Hitman Actual

It's just selective memory. You could have the exact same probability swings when you're running well (a 100/1 run of hands where you shouldn't win, but do, etc) but they're much easier to forget than the beats.

luckylucky

Personally I take the view that mtts are an indulgence, you need to get very lucky to cash in them never mind cashing in the top 3. Bad beats are pretty typical in them, you go all-in 3 times as an 80% fav in them pre-flop odds are against you to hold up all 3 times, it's the nature of the beast, so if you want to have a little poker fun and a slight chance of hitting that big score by all means play them, but also be prepared for playing for hours and then just missing out on the money and getting busted out by the moron who calls your all-in with 22 who hits a backdoor flush to crack your Aces.

This subject has been done to death before tbh, online poker is not rigged ok, period! (with some absolute and ultimate exceptions obviously ) You see more strange hands because you play way way more hands per hour online than you do in a live game and if you multitable you can be playign over ten times more hands per hour.

Kamaldihnio

luckylucky wrote: »

Personally I take the view that mtts are an indulgence, you need to get very lucky to cash in them never mind cashing in the top 3. Bad beats are pretty typical in them, you go all-in 3 times as an 80% fav in them pre-flop odds are against you to hold up all 3 times, it's the nature of the beast, so if you want to have a little poker fun and a slight chance of hitting that big score by all means play them, but also be prepared for playing for hours and then just missing out on the money and getting busted out by the moron who calls your all-in with 22 who hits a backdoor flush to crack your Aces.

This subject has been done to death before tbh, online poker is not rigged ok, period! (with some absolute and ultimate exceptions obviously ) You see more strange hands because you play way way more hands per hour online than you do in a live game and if you multitable you can be playign over ten times more hands per hour.

Do you not think some of the beats are ridiculous?

Did I tell you this one, blinds are 30 60, I limp with 44 in late position, button makes it 180, 3 more callers and me. 5 in the hand, 900 in the middle, flop comes 10 4 7, I make it 600, button goes all in and another bloke goes all in, there is no way I am folding so I'm all in. One person shows AA, another shows 1010 and to top it off the river is a 4 to give me a poker of 4's. Just your everyday hand. The only bit of luck I have had in the past few weeks.

I don't think online poker is rigged, its just ridiculous. Its like everyone always has something so there is action. Bad play gets rewarded alot more than it should. Do you think I am paranoid. How many bad beats per hands is normal? Or is there an average?

Kamaldihnio

luckylucky wrote: »

Personally I take the view that mtts are an indulgence, you need to get very lucky to cash in them never mind cashing in the top 3. Bad beats are pretty typical in them, you go all-in 3 times as an 80% fav in them pre-flop odds are against you to hold up all 3 times, it's the nature of the beast, so if you want to have a little poker fun and a slight chance of hitting that big score by all means play them, but also be prepared for playing for hours and then just missing out on the money and getting busted out by the moron who calls your all-in with 22 who hits a backdoor flush to crack your Aces.

This subject has been done to death before tbh, online poker is not rigged ok, period! (with some absolute and ultimate exceptions obviously ) You see more strange hands because you play way way more hands per hour online than you do in a live game and if you multitable you can be playign over ten times more hands per hour.

I think your probabaly right, but how do Doyle Brunson, Johnny Chan and Phil Helmuth have a geansai load of bracelets. They just got lucky??

Mellor

Kamaldihnio wrote: »

Do you not think some of the beats are ridiculous?

Did I tell you this one, blinds are 30 60, I limp with 44 in late position, button makes it 180, 3 more callers and me. 5 in the hand, 900 in the middle, flop comes 10 4 7, I make it 600, button goes all in and another bloke goes all in, there is no way I am folding so I'm all in. One person shows AA, another shows 1010 and to top it off the river is a 4 to give me a poker of 4's. Just your everyday hand. The only bit of luck I have had in the past few weeks.

I don't think online poker is rigged, its just ridiculous. Its like everyone always has something so there is action. Bad play gets rewarded alot more than it should. Do you think I am paranoid. How many bad beats per hands is normal? Or is there an average?

Its not crazy to think that the 10s would lose, any of three cards to hit and they lose, plus running flush.
I don't see why you blame this on online poker, it happens live too.

In Trippies blog there is a live cash hand were be flopped a flush, got it all in against another flush managed to hit runner runner straight flush.
Thats almost 1000/1, not to mind the action created with both them flopping flushes
When you are playing/watching a couple of thousand hands this will happen non and then

58o

Kamaldihnio wrote: »

I think your probabaly right, but how do Doyle Brunson, Johnny Chan and Phil Helmuth have a geansai load of bracelets. They just got lucky??

These guys won the majority of their bracelets when the WSOP had far smaller field then it attracts nowadays, meaning less variance. To answer your original question, yes you are being extremely paranoid.

luckylucky

Kamaldihnio wrote: »

I think your probabaly right, but how do Doyle Brunson, Johnny Chan and Phil Helmuth have a geansai load of bracelets. They just got lucky??

Firstly there's a whale of a difference between a 10 or even 5 minute increase in blinds in an online tournament that typically finishes in 3 to 4 hours as opposed to a 2 hour gradual increase that you have in the WSOP which takes 9 days to run. Not hard to see that there is way much more luck involved in winning or even cashing in an online mtt.

Secondly when the names you mentioned won most of their bracelets there was also a lot less runners to get through as opposed to the enormous number of playing WSOP events these days. No well known name has taken down the WSOP main event in recent years.

Also I never said mtts, even online ones were pure luck. What I meant more specifically is that you need a lot to score in them even if you were amongst the top players in the event.

Tbh I'm probably as entitled to anyone else to grumble about the cruelty of mtts, I've had rotten luck in them , that's why I rarely play them now as I'm trying to make a living from this game and mtts imo are not good from a time spent point of view.

Hitman Actual

Isn't there a sticky for these horrible, horrible threads?

Marq

did I tell you this one, last night I had AT and I reraised preflop, the button called :mad: and the flop came A 3 5 no suits, he bet and I went all in and he called with 2 3 off happy days I am thinking time for a double up, the turn gives me a flush draw to make me an even bigger favourite, then a poxy 3 on the river :eek: to knock me out of the tournament. Couldn't fcking believe it. Now I'm not saying live poker is rigged but is it possible the numbers aren't perfectly random? Or that some people have a way of knowing what cards could be coming because there is no way he could have called with 2 3 off otherwise??

gondorff

Mellor wrote: »

OP, your chance of losing those three hands in isolation is about 1%. Outdraws happen. Good and bad streaks. Best example of me is over the last 8k hands, i have gotten AA maybe 30 times, its my biggest loser. win rate 80% (this is pretty low consider al the hands that are taken down PF), of the hanbds I lost most of it went in PF, Cooler streaks happen.



Please don't be stupid. These happen all the time live. Christmas game at the JP, three players se a flop, get it all-in, set vrs set vrs set, QQ held up? or it out drew the AA

Please don't be stupid for what? Saying I've never seen it live?

I deal cards mate, and have been playing for some considerable time and prior to this particular occasion, I had NEVER seen the top four pairs out preflop in a live (real life) seven-handed game.

Just making an observation.

And yeah the queens outdrew the aces... and the kings.

gondorff

lenny_leonard wrote: »

It's just selective memory. You could have the exact same probability swings when you're running well (a 100/1 run of hands where you shouldn't win, but do, etc) but they're much easier to forget than the beats.

Selective memory? I remember the times these situations go for me aswell as against me. Live and online.

gondorff

luckylucky wrote: »

(with some absolute and ultimate exceptions obviously )

Anyone hear the sound of thunder?

Mellor

gondorff wrote: »

Please don't be stupid for what? Saying I've never seen it live?

I deal cards mate, and have been playing for some considerable time and prior to this particular occasion, I had NEVER seen the top four pairs out preflop in a live (real life) seven-handed game.

Just making an observation.

And yeah the queens outdrew the aces... and the kings.

You may have never seen that exact situation, but similar ones happen all the time. I have seen AAvrsAAvrsKK, or three sets on the flop. Just because you've never seen it doesn't mean it is not as likely to happen as online. People over look the fact that they play far more hands online than live.

So the QQ didn't hold up, it sucked out ;D......Live is rigged

Hitman Actual

gondorff wrote: »

Please don't be stupid for what? Saying I've never seen it live?

I deal cards mate, and have been playing for some considerable time and prior to this particular occasion, I had NEVER seen the top four pairs out preflop in a live (real life) seven-handed game.

How many hands do you reckon you've dealt/played live so?

Hitman Actual

gondorff wrote: »

Selective memory? I remember the times these situations go for me aswell as against me. Live and online.

Well, then you're one of the few. Most people don't.

Macspower

gondorff wrote: »

Please don't be stupid for what? Saying I've never seen it live?

I deal cards mate, and have been playing for some considerable time and prior to this particular occasion, I had NEVER seen the top four pairs out preflop in a live (real life) seven-handed game.

Just making an observation.

And yeah the queens outdrew the aces... and the kings.

yep live in the Emporium bout a year ago...

Me/Fat Tony/Tom (young taxi guy) scotish stephen (I think) and oberon..

Me KK raise call call call oberon makes it 40 i raise all in
3 all in callers and oberon folds....

We felt KK AA QQ and JJ respectfully.... and oberon announces he folded 44

board all under 10 including a 4.....

Rigged but true! Fat tony scoops with AA

Macspower

and then this one a few weks ago online..

http://bp0.blogger.com/_yIITt15lxho/R1yWIsCoGAI/AAAAAAAAAAk/C_HQbL2ItX8/s1600-h/ghey.JPG

It happens... it's part of poker!

phantom_lord

Marq wrote: »

did I tell you this one, last night I had AT and I reraised preflop, the button called :mad: and the flop came A 3 5 no suits, he bet and I went all in and he called with 2 3 off happy days I am thinking time for a double up, the turn gives me a flush draw to make me an even bigger favourite, then a poxy 3 on the river :eek: to knock me out of the tournament. Couldn't fcking believe it. Now I'm not saying live poker is rigged but is it possible the numbers aren't perfectly random? Or that some people have a way of knowing what cards could be coming because there is no way he could have called with 2 3 off otherwise??

I like the smilies.

Kamaldihnio

lenny_leonard wrote: »

Isn't there a sticky for these horrible, horrible threads?

I am asking peoples opinions not moaning about 1 bad beat. You'd swear you were connected to IPOKER some how. OPINIONS.

Lafortezza

Is it you think online poker is rigged against you? Or that you're very unlucky? Or is it that you don't understand the way %-chance-of-winning?

Kamaldihnio

lafortezza wrote: »

Is it you think online poker is rigged against you? Or that you're very unlucky? Or is it that you don't understand the way %-chance-of-winning?

I think 1 person described it perfectly, it seems to be randomized but maybe not randomized properly. If you read my title, it says am I being paranoid and I probably am. But If I have a big hand in IPOKER, I am never confidnet of it holding up. Crazy probably. Also I amnt stupid, how would I think its rigged against me alone. Jesus that would be serious paranoia. I talk to poker players that think the same thing about online poker. Just lookin for feedback on what people think really. I think I mentioned in my initial thread that most people would come back saying its just unlucky. Maybe it is.

Lazare

Kamaldihnio wrote: »

I think 1 person described it perfectly, it seems to be randomized but maybe not randomized properly. If you read my title, it says am I being paranoid and I probably am. But If I have a big hand in IPOKER, I am never confidnet of it holding up. Crazy probably. Also I amnt stupid, how would I think its rigged against me alone. Jesus that would be serious paranoia. I talk to poker players that think the same thing about online poker. Just lookin for feedback on what people think really. I think I mentioned in my initial thread that most people would come back saying its just unlucky. Maybe it is.

What does 'not randomized properly' mean? lol (please don't answer)

As Lenny said, you just have selective memory, go back through all the HHs of hands you've won over those same tournaments and I bet you'll find the answer to this connundrum.

phantom_lord

perhaps you're the sacrifice the ipoker rng demanded?

kincsem

I saw AA v KK v QQ v TT on a final table in the Fitz (AA held up - Leo), and was in a AA v KK v QQ twice. Fairly standard stuff.

As pointed out above if you are in enough 80/20 situations you need luck to hold up. .8 x .8 x .8 = 51.2% to win all three.

Obviously online is rigged 90/10 in favour of the poker site.
Play average for ten games and you are left with [.9 to the power of 10 = 34.9%] of your starting roll.
If you are a little less than average, say 100%-10%-10% rake = 80% to the power of 10 = 10.7% left of your roll giving you the option to reload or leave.

Hitman Actual

Kamaldihnio wrote: »

IYou'd swear you were connected to IPOKER some how.

What??? What the hell are you talking about? You've been around here long enough to know that these threads have been done to death, and don't belong in the main forum. Read the charter.

Edit: Also, those three hands you posted were about 100/1 or so. Flopping a flush is 118/1. The last time that happened to you, did you complain about poker being rigged in your favour?

phantom_lord

I've always been of the opinion that there'd be something wrong if this stuff didn't happen.


edit: getting very defensive there lenny (if that's your real name, I bet it's really ethan or something), you're probably just a plant sent to allay our fears of the riggness of poker sites.

Kamaldihnio

HAHA, Just dealt AA, someone raises, I go all in and get called by AK, board is A2345. What did I say in the chat box. Typical, wudnt expect anything else. Its settled, Im just an inlucky c*nt and IPOKER is like playing live poker. Thanks for your feedback.

El Stuntman

Macspower wrote: »

yep live in the Emporium bout a year ago...

Me/Fat Tony/Tom (young taxi guy) scotish stephen (I think) and oberon..

Me KK raise call call call oberon makes it 40 i raise all in
3 all in callers and oberon folds....

We felt KK AA QQ and JJ respectfully.... and oberon announces he folded 44

board all under 10 including a 4.....

Rigged but true! Fat tony scoops with AA

lol

this story cannot be true

a147pro

Mellor wrote: »

You may have never seen that exact situation, but similar ones happen all the time. I have seen AAvrsAAvrsKK, or three sets on the flop. Just because you've never seen it doesn't mean it is not as likely to happen as online. People over look the fact that they play far more hands online than live.

So the QQ didn't hold up, it sucked out ;D......Live is rigged

""Originally Posted by gondorff View Post
Please don't be stupid for what? Saying I've never seen it live?

I deal cards mate, and have been playing for some considerable time and prior to this particular occasion, I had NEVER seen the top four pairs out preflop in a live (real life) seven-handed game.

Just making an observation.

And yeah the queens outdrew the aces... and the kings.""



I've seen both these situations live and I don't play that much live.

If you're only losing cos you're being outdrawn, when you get it in ahead, then you're playing well, you just have to sit it out. But you cannot forget that you need to be lucky to win most forms of poker, particularly MTTs and being lucky includes having a better hand hold up several times during the long course of a tournament.

Stop moaning, put on some music, play your game and take the cashes when they come. Otherwise give up altogether as its an imperfect game.

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

gondorff

Quote a147pro: stop moaning, put on some music..... unquote.

I actually won the hand! Certainly not moaning.

How many hands do you reckon you've dealt/played live so? Today 16:29

I don't have pokertracker, I don't play 12 hours a day and I don't, nor do I intend to even attempt to make a living playing online poker. I have other, less mundane ways of occupying my time. And I don't multitable when I do play. So it appears that I'm actually seeing less hands than most of the people here with all their stats and their 10k hands or whatever.

Mellor

gondorff wrote: »

I actually won the hand! Certainly not moaning.

I think this is what lenny was saying about selective memory, you have no problem hitting a two outer, but if you had the AA and the Q hit its rigged or whatever.

So it appears that I'm actually seeing less hands than most of the people here with all their stats and their 10k hands or whatever.

Well theres the problem, see enough hands live or online and there is no difference between them.


With all the millions and millions of poker hands mined, if certain hands were getting dealt out, or winning more often it would be incredibly easy to spot

a-k-47

gondorff wrote: »

I was in a 4-way all in situation the other night on stars. Seven handed, JJ v QQ v KK v AA. I have just NEVER seen that in real life. Never.

My QQ held up.
Got outdrawn later on though obviously :mad:

how long are you playing online poker?. how many thousands of hands have you played?. how many times did this happen?. come on!.

a-k-47

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

I was playing 8 handed cash in the SE about a year ago on a Wednesday night and AA, KK, QQ, JJ and 99 were dealt out preflop (by Stephen obv) in one hand. I managed to do €250 preflop with the 99.

did u win

Macspower

El Stuntman wrote: »

lol

this story cannot be true

especially the bit about oberon folding preflop.... lol

AT is still telling the story.....
Ask him about it for the craic some nite... it has grown legs since...

gondorff

Mellor wrote: »

I think this is what lenny was saying about selective memory, you have no problem hitting a two outer, but if you had the AA and the Q hit its rigged or whatever.


Well theres the problem, see enough hands live or online and there is no difference between them.


With all the millions and millions of poker hands mined, if certain hands were getting dealt out, or winning more often it would be incredibly easy to spot

I'm trying to point out that my memory is not selective. I remember weird wins just as readily as weird losses, not that the example I have given is extraordinary compared to other people's experiences, or some of my own.

"if you had the AA and the Q hit its rigged or whatever"

Please do not put words into my mouth. I did not say that in this thread.

As for millions and millions of poker hands mined, by who? I don't play as many hands as an 'online poker player' does so shouldn't I be seeing proportionately less weird stuff?

Internet poker isn't rigged? Where's the evidence for this?

RoadSweeper

lol, who we all kidding. Its rigged. The better players always get money. They must be bots.

breadmonkey

I'm with lenny. Lock please.

NickyOD

gondorff wrote: »

I was in a 4-way all in situation the other night on stars. Seven handed, JJ v QQ v KK v AA. I have just NEVER seen that in real life. Never.

My QQ held up.
Got outdrawn later on though obviously :mad:

I saw it at the Prague EPT. Jacks got away from it, the rest of them went in preflop and Aces held up.

Doc Farrell

hi nicky.
played in a game in luton, i had AK, got raised by JJ, KK and AA. Needless to say my folding equity multiplied by pot odds divided by sheer incompetence meant that i lost all but two of my chips. sweet memories.

Glowingmind

gondorff wrote: »

Internet poker isn't rigged? Where's the evidence for this?

Where's the evidence that it is?

Online poker's not that new anymore. There's been literally millions (if not billions) of hands datamined and no one has been able to produce and "evidence" beyond "but......but......i had aces!!!"

Before anyone points it out, obviously i'm a bit biased because i work for an online poker company, but there's simply no need for poker sites to be rigged.

Putting a constant stream of revenue at risk for short term gain would be pretty dumb

RasTa

Just lock this pointless tripe.

Icarus152

Why do all you monkeys keep playing online if your convinced something is not right?
Personally, if I felt something underhand was going on in a live game or that all live poker wasn't properly randomised () I'd have to give up playing.

Mellor

What I think is really funny, it that people who complain about poker being rigged, never considered the fact that if it was rigged then, then the people with the edge wouldn't be sitting at 50/1,


also, "randomised, but not randomised properly" was defo the best of the whole thread.
Genuine laugh there

Kamaldihnio

I wonder if online casinos are rigged. Its all very debatable. I actually don't even think online poker is rigged just sometimes feel its ridiculous. I guess I'm just on a bad streak. Some of the beats online are hard to take, it happens so SO frequent it can hurt. Close this thread if it bugs you so much. I honestly don't mind. I was only asking opinions. Maybe it has been mentioned before, I didn't see it.

gondorff

I am willing to accept that online poker isn't 'rigged' as such in anyones favour, only that the RNGs which control the whole thing are very complex programs and are prone to brainfarts and 'practical jokes'. I have spoken to a well respected player, who posts here from time to time, who tells me he was once dealt pocket aces FIVE TIMES IN A ROW in an online cash game.

Some of the scenarios produced do seem, even to the most experienced open-minded observer, to be very sensationalist sometimes. Almost a 'poker demonstration'.

That's all well and good, everyone's in the same boat and the better players will always make money. I sincerely salute these players, for they have more control, patience and discipline than I certainly will ever have.

I, for one am going to concentrate my efforts at the 'live' table, as I have always done. The craic is better if nothing else.
I look forward to seeing you there!