poker million final betting

nicnicnic

anyone think Howard Lederer at 11/4 is value I havent seen his heat or semi of ever seen him play but I'd imagine that he would be fav if it was level starting stack maybe 100/30 7/2, so the 11/4 is looking quiet inviting.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=go_type&category=SPORTS&disp_cat_id=&ev_class_id=138&ev_type_id=7706

Requiem4adream

The blinds are 2/4k and the shortest stack is 100k odd....can make a case for all of them i reckon. Lederer has 25% the chips in play so if you fancy him, def wouldnt put you off 11/4

nicnicnic

Requiem4adream wrote: »

The blinds are 2/4k and the shortest stack is 100k odd....can make a case for all of them i reckon. Lederer has 25% the chips in play so if you fancy him, def wouldnt put you off 7/2

just did a bit of research, he has four appearances this year on that poker after dark 1st twice a 2nd and 3rd so seems to have a decent pedigree in these things I'm on at 11/4

Requiem4adream

Put it this way, if he wins 11/4 will look huge value given his reputation and chip stack!!

Not to jinx you but I'm gonna have a fiver on Liam Flood for my nan, he was her bookie for years before she died God rest her - she used to ring in a 10p Lucky 15 every day, religously! Method of picking - closed eyes, pen in the air, wherever it lands ........+ev obv

nicnicnic

Requiem4adream wrote: »

Put it this way, if he wins 11/4 will look huge value given his reputation and chip stack!!

Not to jinx you but I'm gonna have a fiver on Liam Flood for my nan, he was her bookie for years before she died God rest her - she used to ring in a 10p Lucky 15 every day, religously! Method of picking - closed eyes, pen in the air, wherever it lands ........+ev obv

well dont take the 6/1 with paddypower he is 9/1 on betfair

Moro Man

Back Marty Smyth to be first out @ 9/1......

He will probably try and take Lederer on early, the other four will probably be looking to stay in and move up the prize fund but I'd imagine Marty will be thinking win win win.

AND before ye even start I'm not in ANY way slagging him off as a player etc... I just think at 9/1 it represents that all important word when it comes to punting

VALUE.

Julian Gardiner could also be put in the same category but I think his finances might not be as healthy as they used to be.

Lederer should be a class above these but it's reflected in his price.

nicnicnic wrote: »

well dont take the 6/1 with paddypower he is 9/1 on betfair

And just to show that PP may have got it wrong its only a shade over 6/1 on betfair

meathman 007

not a huge fan of betting on poker tournaments, but yeah lederer does look like a decent punt - played well in his semi last night and there is some dead money on the final table imo

hf4z6sqo7vjngi

meathman 007 wrote: »

not a huge fan of betting on poker tournaments, but yeah lederer does look like a decent punt - played well in his semi last night and there is some dead money on the final table imo

I think the deck hitting him in the face and the guy from the goonies making a move on him when he had the AA had something to do with it

nicnicnic

Moro Man wrote: »

Back Marty Smyth to be first out @ 9/1......

He will probably try and take Lederer on early, the other four will probably be looking to stay in and move up the prize fund but I'd imagine Marty will be thinking win win win.

AND before ye even start I'm not in ANY way slagging him off as a player etc... I just think at 9/1 it represents that all important word when it comes to punting

VALUE.

Julian Gardiner could also be put in the same category but I think his finances might not be as healthy as they used to be.

Lederer should be a class above these but it's reflected in his price.




And just to show that PP may have got it wrong its only a shade over 6/1 on betfair

I wouldn't say he is class above the field in anyway just that with his chip lead the 11/4 represents a little value. I'd rather see Marty win but knowing Marty and how he plays I cant see him gunning for Lederer early as you say and would imagine he will play extremely tight to start hoping a couple go before he starts mixing it up

RichieLawlor

Moro Man wrote: »

Back Marty Smyth to be first out @ 9/1......

He will probably try and take Lederer on early, the other four will probably be looking to stay in and move up the prize fund but I'd imagine Marty will be thinking win win win.

good call here id say, i can see marty totally changing his game for the final compared to EVERY other time he has played on tv. ARE YOU MAD

JoeyJJ

When is the final on?

nicnicnic

JoeyJJ wrote: »

When is the final on?

tonight live on sky from 8

JoeyJJ

Cool, only watched the semi last night...

Thought Andreas Hoivold was going well and was going to do well but that was a bad move on Howard. Cox might surprise tonight.

robinblinds

Still think Gardner will win. He'll look to pick somebody off earlyish for a lot of chips. Probably Cox. His timing is very good when the pressure is on.

SuperHans

Marty Smith for me. Proven winner and extremely competent player who's style suits this format. Got him at a shade over 4-1 on Betfair which I think is alright considering on average everyone should be 5-1. I think that it's difficult to squeeze much value out of this market, but the flutter will add a bit of excitement. Was considering Gardner, but something in the back of my mind told me to stay away.

robinblinds

SuperHans wrote: »

Was considering Gardner, but something in the back of my mind told me to stay away.

that was the bookies

Sparky1808

It's a 3 horse race between Lederer, Gardner & Smyth.

A close call IMO, whoever gets the smidgen of luck out of the 3 of them will take it down.

dannydiamond

lol sparky if someone gets lucky they'll win.Sounds like most final tables to me.
Judging on previous marty will rock it for a while,unless he surprises them(and us)??
I have never been overly impressed with lederer,and if marty doesn't win I hope julian Gardener takes it down,the man is pure class.
In any case it's a good final table and should be a good show,really enjoyed last years minraising spree by "whashisname",never seen so many good players so utterly confused.

nicnicnic

dannydiamond wrote: »

lol sparky if someone gets lucky they'll win.Sounds like most final tables to me.
Judging on previous marty will rock it for a while,unless he surprises them(and us)??
I have never been overly impressed with lederer,and if marty doesn't win I hope julian Gardener takes it down,the man is pure class.
In any case it's a good final table and should be a good show,really enjoyed last years minraising spree by "whashisname",never seen so many good players so utterly confused.

so lets be clear are you tipping Marty and Gardener because if you are I'm backing lederer again

The Improver

fancy lederer big time, watched it last night and he played very well, even tough he got monster hands, he still played well.

robinblinds

Interesting that there are no "mentalers" on the ft. All are more or less deemed to be experienced and solid. One of them will have to go hell for leather and I'd say it might be Flood.

Van Dice

How would people rank the 6 finalists in terms of a 6-seated SnG?
ie if they were all equal in chips, who would be the most likely winner, second most likely, etc
I'm going on very little info on some of them, if I've got things drastically wrong pls correct!

Gardner
Smyth
Lederer
Cox
Beevers
Flood

rag2gar

robinblinds wrote: »

Interesting that there are no "mentalers" on the ft. All are more or less deemed to be experienced and solid. One of them will have to go hell for leather and I'd say it might be Flood.

Thats a good point, was thinking that myself. I'm gona punt Marty I think

And cox too has a chance esp at the odds (12/1 on the fair)

LuckyLloyd

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LuckyLloyd

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robinblinds

Yeah could be Beevers but he may think his stack is big enough to leave somebody else do it. As somebody pointed out before he wants to climb the payout.

Hitman Actual

My prediction is that whoever runs good over 100 hands will win it.

corkie123

marty last year was very ul in final but thats poker as we all know no matter what chips u have u need luck to win .

ian cox if he is 12/1 is worth a bet hes made loads of final tables in england this year winning a good few and is a good player .

Van Dice

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Flood has good pedigree in these televised crapshoot thingys. After that I dunno if any of them are SnG specialists.

k thanks, that's pretty much what I was asking. Seems like seating draw went well for Smyth, he looks like the best bet to me, although it's thin value.

fwiw if anyone is interested, just pricing the market according to chip stacks, without taking into account ability, results in:

Lederer - 3.92
Smyth - 4.72
Gardner - 5.33
Beevers - 5.94
Flood - 9.92
Cox - 13.04

So anything after that is dependent on how you rate the players, or whether you think that having 20% of the chips != 20% chance of winning.

Captain Tom

lenny_leonard wrote: »

My prediction is that whoever runs good over 100 hands will win it.

.

slightly OT but did anyone else think Lederer's fold with the A8s in the bb when Cox raised to 27k at 3/6k with 33k behind to be really really bad? is this some advanced sng strat that im missing?

Sparky1808

Just stuck £20 on Joe Beevers to be the first eliminated @ 11/2.

Tasty wee bet IMO

MrPillowTalk

I wouldnt bet on it on the basis that I reckon they will do business when down to 3.

I dont think Marty will go crazy early seeing as he went early in last years final. Hope Marty wins but it will go to whoever runs best as it gets v crapshooty.

Van Dice

What do blinds start off at and how long are the levels

SuperHans

2k-4k at the start increasing every 20 or 21 hands I think.

Norwich Fan Rob

ive been told that business will be done as soon as lederer is knocked out, if hes not, then no business will be done.

nicnicnic

MrPillowTalk wrote: »

I wouldnt bet on it on the basis that I reckon they will do business when down to 3.

.

only if Lederer is out

MrPillowTalk

Heard that, but I dont really rate Ledereer so wont be surprised to see him go.

nicnicnic

MrPillowTalk wrote: »

Heard that, but I dont really rate Ledereer so wont be surprised to see him go.

I'm sure he'll be very upset to hear that, hope your wrong if your right GO Marty

MrPillowTalk

nicnicnic wrote: »

I'm sure he'll be very upset to hear that, hope your wrong if your right GO Marty

no doubt he is crying in his beer as we speak.

nicnicnic

seems to be doing ok in the format this year anyway

http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/event.php?a=r&n=27856

say he is ****ing himself at the prospect of Beavers and Flood compared to the above heat

http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/event.php?a=r&n=26550


http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/event.php?a=r&n=27861

and a 3rd from four goes

redzerdrog

Norwich Fan Rob wrote: »

ive been told that business will be done as soon as lederer is knocked out, if hes not, then no business will be done.

i thought beevers (the hendon mob) never do deals?

BigCityBanker

Go Marty & Liam.

Betting in running on PP. Link in Sig.

nicnicnic

redzerdrog wrote: »

i thought beevers (the hendon mob) never do deals?

Vaswani dosent; say the other three would be delighted to get the chance

MrPillowTalk

Marty has a good seat draw

Flipper

Marty reckons that that Cox guy is great value. He's played something like 7 of these tv heats and won 5 of them or something ridiculous like that

BigCityBanker

Roy "Liam has given Marty the chance to fold"

wtf? for an extra 31k into that pot?

nicnicnic

BigCityBanker wrote: »

Roy "Liam has given Marty the chance to fold"

wtf? for an extra 31k into that pot?

wheres his paddypowers badge gone

BigCityBanker

he never wore a paddypower badge in this event

semibluff

irishi open badge

Sparky1808

Yeah he had it on him in the semi-final heat for sure.

nicnicnic

BigCityBanker wrote: »

he never wore a paddypower badge in this event

and his first heat knowall