30k to invest, any suggestions

kincsem

I hope I'm not boring the good people of Ireland.

THE QUESTIONS YOU NEED TO ASK WHEN BUYING SHARES.

1. DOES THE COMPANY HAVE IDENTIFIABLE CONSUMER MONOPOLIES OR BRAND NAME PRODUCTS?
2. DO YOU UNDERSTAND HOW IT WORKS?
3. IS THE COMPANY CONSERVATIVELY FINANCED?
4. ARE EARNINGS STRONG AND DO THEY SHOW AN UPWARD TREND?
5. DOES THE COMPANY ONLY ALLOCATE CAPITAL TO BUSINESSES WITHIN ITS REALM OF EXPERTISE?
6. DOES THE COMPANY BUY BACK ITS SHARES?
7. DOES THE COMPANY RETAIN EARNINGS?
8. IS THE RETURN ON SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY ABOVE AVERAGE?
9. IS THE COMPANY FREE TO ADJUST PRICES TO INFLATION?
10. DO OPERATIONS REQUIRE LARGE CAPITAL EXPENDITURES TO UPDATE PLANT AND EQUIPMENT?

EXAMPLES
1. COCA-COLA IS A BRAND NAME MONOPOLY. BETHLEHEM STEEL IS NOT.
2. IF IT IS A TECHNOLOGY COMPANY YOU PROBABLY DON’T UNDERSTAND IT E.G GOOGLE.
3. DOES IT HAVE MUCH LONG-TERM DEBT?
GENERAL MOTORS DEBT IN 2005 WAS $285 BILLION; NET INCOME FOR THE TEN YEARS 1996 TO 2005 WAS $22.1 BILLION. AT THAT PROFIT RATE THEY WOULD TAKE ABOUT 130 YEARS TO PAY OFF THEIR DEBT.
4. AMERICAN EXPRESS EARNINGS PER SHARE 1990 TO 2005: (RISING NICELY) .23,.53,.28,1.06,0.89,1.04,1.30,1.38,1.54,1.81,2.07,0.98,2.01,2.31,2.74,2.56
5. COCA-COLA, WRIGLEYS, MCDONALDS, JOHNSON & JOHNSON ARE SOLID PERFORMERS THAT STICK TO WHAT THEY KNOW. COMPANIES LIKE NORTHERN ROCK DON’T.
6. BUYING BACK SHARES INCREASE SHAREHOLDER VALUE. IT IS ALSO A SIGN THAT THE COMPANY IS GENERATING A LARGE AMOUNT OF CASH.
7. DIVIDENDS ARE TAXED. RETAINED EARNINGS IN A COMPANY WITH HIGH EARNINGS PER SHARE INCREASE SHARE VALUES.
8. AMGEN; AUTOMATIC DATA PROCESSING; ADOBE SYSTEMS HAVE HIGH RETURNS ON SHAREHOLDER EQUITY. AMERICAN MICRO DEVICES; ALCAN ALUMINIUM DON’T.
9. RYANAIR PROBABLY CANNOT INCREASE PRICES WITH INFLATION, WHILE TESCO CAN.
10. GENERAL MOTORS CAPITAL EXPENDITURE IN THE 1996 TO 2005 DECADE WAS $86.3 BILLION, WHILE THEIR NET INCOME IN THAT PERIOD WAS $22.1 BILLION. IN OTHER WORDS THEY CANNOT MAKE ENOUGH PROFIT TO REPLACE MACHINERY, AND MUST BORROW HEAVILY.

WHAT YOU WANT IS A WELL KNOWN BRAND NAME WITH A MONOPOLY OF ITS MARKET, A SIMPLE PRODUCT THAT WILL NOT BECOME OBSOLETE, HAS LITTLE LONG-TERM DEBT, HAS STRONG EARNING PER SHARE WITH AN UPWARD TREND WITH FEW REVERSES, STICKS TO ITS PROFITABLE CORE BUSINESS, BUYS BACK ITS SHARES WITH ITS RETAINED EARNINGS, DOES NOT PAY DIVIDENDS (OR LITTLE), IS FREE TO ADJUST PRICES WITH INFLATION, AND DOES NOT REQUIRE LARGE CAPITAL EXPENDITURE TO CONTINUE IN EXISTENCE.

IN MY OPINION THE STOCK MARKET IS HIGH. I EXPECT THE DOW TO GO DOWN TO ABOUT 10,000 IN A COUPLE OF YEARS. I HAVE MY MONEY IN AN ETRADE ACCOUNT. THE MOST DIFFICULT THING TO DO IS TO DO NOTHING. WARREN BUFFETT (BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY) DID NOT BUY A SHARE FOR THREE YEARS WHILE WAITING FOR THE PRICES THAT MADE SENSE TO HIM.

Article43

holmyster wrote: »

I'm far from loaded, but have just bought a house (200,000 still owed on it) and have 30,000 sitting in the bank (just not much of a spender). Should i pay off some of the morgage or has anyone some suggestions on how best to invest it. Another property, shares, rabo direct, etc.

Here is some advice, which you will probably not take, but here goes anyway !

Open an account with a deep discount broker on the internet, any of them will do, just get the one with the cheapest commissions.

Go to MSN money and download their free stock analysis programme that you can run from your PC - this will give you the same details as many of the subscription services out there - forget them - the internet can give you all the information you want for free, if you are prepared to do some work and research the topic you are interested in.

Go to Yahoo finance and learn how to watch the market sectors and leaders / laggers - another free service that many pay for !

Add one and two and you have just made yourslef as good as the best analysists in Davys or Bloxhams, or any other stock broker firm.

Now, this is the important bit.

If the market has bottomed - meaning it has gone down for a period of time and stabilised, buy the leaders - not the lagers, and vice versa when the market has rallied up.

Only buy 50 shares and put a stop loss order in just below the most recent low of the stock you have picked. Ig you get stopped out, then go on to the next best candidate, but keep an eye on the one that you have just got stopped out of, for it will reverse many times for no apparent reason, but when it moves up, you can then start to move your stop loss order to lock in profits.

By the time you have lost 2,000 euro, I guarantee you that you will know more about the markets than the majority of stock brokers, for they all think Economics is a science, when in fact, it is not, as it is next to impossible to apply scientific methods to human emotions, and trading is mostly about human emotions, not balance sheets !

Have fun, and you might well thank me in years to come, when you will be able to pay off your 200,000 mortage with the money that other traders have handed to you, but remember, only 50 shares at first, and when you are winning each and every week, then you can start to increase it slowly, to 100 shares, then maybe 150, 200 (depending on the price of the stock traded) but the number of shares you buy must never exceed 1% of your available trading capital - ignore this and odds are you will lose all of your money - and in a very short time as well !

moe_sizlak

portomar wrote: »

ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

thats original!

most of the good property in eastern europe has been bought by western europeans over the last 20 years, credit is geting tighter than ever, and the unwinding global housing bubble is on the verge of taking a serious dent out of worldwide economic growth. I remember going to an overseas property exhibition a few years ago and some chap trying to sell apartments in Budapest stood there straight faced and said "Ah no, you wont have Hungarians renting these places, its way out of their price range, the hope is that wealthy international students and business people will rent them. Its not really in the hungarian culture to rent anyway, they mostly save up and buy.".............. What a salesman.

Or look at these tourist places they are throwing up around the black sea coast, sold EXCLUSIVELY to British and Irish people, they cost literally a MULTIPLE of what an equivalent bulgarian owned property nearby costs. and noone wants to rent this stuff anyway. property in Czech meanwhile had property price growth of 20% through much of the nineties, and that isnt going to continue.

this notion that eastern european countries will have a celtic tiger esque boom is a COMPLETE red herring, look at the level of GDP spent on social service by goernment, much higher thatn ireland. eastern european countries have a legacy of communism/socialism, meaning they have better health and dental care than here, often times huge pension and social welfare commitments, free child care, subsidised and social housing etc. etc. etc. We NEVER had that, and hence could have prudent budgets, lower corporation tax rates, property tax rates and CGT tax rates, couple with pro business government and low deficits. aint gonna happen in most eastern european countries, for this simple reason.... Whos going to elect a government whos going to fire half the doctors and nurses??

property is cyclical and often a good bet, not at the moment though. also the czech krone is quite volatile versus the euro.

agree with almost everything youve said apart from the part about spending on health here being so low
the difference in those countries is the likes of doctors and nurses and public servants in general have a sense of duty , here they have a sense of entitlement , we have massive spending on health here , the problem is , it all goes on wages( instead of beds) to surplus beaurcrats and pen pushers who like everyone in the public service here are unsackable

kincsem

moe_sizlak wrote: »

agree with almost everything youve said apart from the part about spending on health here being so low. the difference in those countries is the likes of doctors and nurses and public servants in general have a sense of duty , here they have a sense of entitlement , we have massive spending on health here , the problem is, it all goes on wages (instead of beds) to surplus beaurcrats and pen pushers who like everyone in the public service here are unsackable

From the HSE website -
The HSE is the largest employer employer in the state, with over 67,000 direct, and a further 35,000 employed by agencies funded by the HSE.

Staff at 31/12/2006 (from the Annual Report)

Medical/dental .................................7710
Nursing .........................................36745
Health & social care professionals ......14929
Management/administrative ..............17254 (16.2%)
General support staff ...................... 12877
Other patient & client care................16757

Total employees ............................106272

16.2% is not excessive in my opinion.

Perhaps you would let us know how many people you calculate are needed. Your post was fact free.

BigWilly

Article43 wrote: »

Open an account with a deep discount broker on the internet, any of them will do, just get the one with the cheapest commissions.

could you suggest one? Personally would prefer something Irish but is this silly?

I would personally be looking to start small with roughly 5k euros


Sorry to go off topic..

moe_sizlak

kincsem wrote: »

From the HSE website -
The HSE is the largest employer employer in the state, with over 67,000 direct, and a further 35,000 employed by agencies funded by the HSE.

Staff at 31/12/2006 (from the Annual Report)

Medical/dental .................................7710
Nursing .........................................36745
Health & social care professionals ......14929
Management/administrative ..............17254 (16.2%)
General support staff ...................... 12877
Other patient & client care................16757

Total employees ............................106272

16.2% is not excessive in my opinion.

Perhaps you would let us know how many people you calculate are needed. Your post was fact free.

you think unless i supply various statistics , im not entitled to comment on the levels of administrators within the health service and the lack of efficency within the public service in general

is that what your saying MR FACTS SHEET

BendiBus

moe_sizlak wrote: »

you think unless i supply various statistics , im not entitled to comment on the levels of administrators within the health service and the lack of efficency within the public service in general

is that what your saying MR FACTS SHEET

I think he was pointing out that people these days seem to be strong on opinions but weak on knowledge!

moe_sizlak

BendiBus wrote: »

I think he was pointing out that people these days seem to be strong on opinions but weak on knowledge!

so do you disagree with me that there is surplus staff employed in the health service and the broader public service in general
do you disagree with me that there is a culture of inneficency
do you also disagree that it is nion impossible to loose your job as a public servant

BendiBus

moe_sizlak wrote: »

so do you disagree with me that there is surplus staff employed in the health service and the broader public service in general
do you disagree with me that there is a culture of inneficency
do you also disagree that it is nion impossible to loose your job as a public servant

I don't have enough knowledge to offer a useful opinion

Of course it's easy to assume all you suggest. How many staff should there be in the health service? I don't know, but you must. I've had few dealings with the service so can't tell how efficient or otherwise they are. Have you enough experience with them to tell? I've no idea how many, if any, public servants lose their jobs each year. What's the answer?

chump

off your mortgage

nuff said

Article43

BigWilly wrote: »

could you suggest one? Personally would prefer something Irish but is this silly?

I would personally be looking to start small with roughly 5k euros


Sorry to go off topic..

Well BigWilly - I must say your nick made me laugh, am I to think of a fishy whale, or is something else more fitting

5K Euros won't go far in the way of experience in the markets - which you need no matter what you may think - so you are kind of snookered unless you can come up with at least say $27.5K dollars - note that I say dollars as forget about Irish or UK markets - comms are way too high and will eat into your capital as you learn the ropes.

The only thing that I can think of for now, is that you get another 3 people that you know - prefarably family members you can trust, and you open an account in all of your names to put in 20K Euro, with one of you nominated as the main person for trading - this can be done with a company called Interactive Brokers in the US - they have a UK branch for European traders.

You can all then trade as much as you like - but don’t buy more than 50-100 shares initially - and if one of you lose 500 Euro you can stop until you save it up and put it back into the account to bring the balance back up - you will be amazed at what this little bit of discipline will teach you about trading.

Articlle43

jackzoe

Article43...........thanks for your very interesting advice, am about to start a bit of trading myself....I posted a thread on Share renting ie covered calls.......would i be right in saying that i need to do a bit of trading firstly before i use covered calls as i have no experience yet and will do some courses and tons of reading first..

portomar

jackzoe wrote: »

Article43...........thanks for your very interesting advice, am about to start a bit of trading myself....I posted a thread on Share renting ie covered calls.......would i be right in saying that i need to do a bit of trading firstly before i use covered calls as i have no experience yet and will do some courses and tons of reading first..

article43 is on a one week ban from investment markets.

eoiner-galway

Saruman wrote: »

You can play it safe and invest in prize bonds for a few years. If you win, great.. if not... just cash them in for the same money and try something else.

one thing to watch is that, people bought prize bons years ago on the idea that it was a no loose.. chance win situation. However they didnt realsie that they can increase a decrease with inflation, and as everyone is speculating about whether or not this contry is going back into recession or not, you cant count on inflation.....

i suggest a high interest FIXED investment account for aeveral years... i am not 100% sure but i think permanent tsb are offering irelands best at the moment.. 7.4% which means for your 30.000 you earn like 700euro per year.....

im only an 18year old so dont count on me.... if you want more ideas pm me.....

eoiner-galway

dude im only 18, but my advise.... open an account with davy.ie irelands leading stockbrokers and start investing.... i like verisign as a company for the next few months, mabey till before next christmas, deffinately not too long after christmas

eoiner-galway

dude im only 18, but my advise.... open an account with davy.ie irelands leading stockbrokers and start investing.... i like verisign as a company for the next few months, mabey till before christmas 09, deffinately not too long after christmas

eoiner-galway

skelliser wrote: »

id invest in property in prague, there rents are gonna be de-regulated in 2 years time i think, and there joining the euro in ~2011, they have excellent infastructure, good level of english, good standard of education,and look to be heading for a celtic-tiger esque boom in the not to distant future, i see alot of tech/business companies starting to set up shop there also
plus you'll have a house/apartment in a nice place!

i dont mean to laugh at you, but are you mad.. everyone who invests in them propertys is going to loose out badly... the spanish housing market is thriving on the british and irish economies.... ireland and britan are said to be on their way into big recession.. the poor dollar, and pound.. this credit lifestyle is starting to hit home hard... and even the banks are feeling it.... it we (britan and ireland) go into recession, were gonna find that literally no-one is going to re-purchase them houses.. who can... and when the spanish realise that there is no-one to buy the houses, that countrys housing market is goin to fall...

so if you spend 50k on an apartment there..... 4yrs... recession hits..... spanish housing market drops (inevitable)*, then your house will be worth nothing more than half the price you paid for it 25k... that is the time when big investors come in and clean up, for half the price...

*spanish housing cant rely on the european banks....

caff

eoiner-galway wrote: »

i dont mean to laugh at you, but are you mad.. everyone who invests in them propertys is going to loose out badly... the spanish housing market is thriving on the british and irish economies.... ireland and britan are said to be on their way into big recession.. the poor dollar, and pound.. this credit lifestyle is starting to hit home hard... and even the banks are feeling it.... it we (britan and ireland) go into recession, were gonna find that literally no-one is going to re-purchase them houses.. who can... and when the spanish realise that there is no-one to buy the houses, that countrys housing market is goin to fall...

so if you spend 50k on an apartment there..... 4yrs... recession hits..... spanish housing market drops (inevitable)*, then your house will be worth nothing more than half the price you paid for it 25k... that is the time when big investors come in and clean up, for half the price...

*spanish housing cant rely on the european banks....

You have a valid point about the spanish housing market, however the poster was talking about prague, the eastern european economies are doing pretty well. In fact they are holding up the euro hence it been so strong against the dollar and sterling. Not that the market is risk free just that its not so much doom and gloom as you are making out.

eoiner-galway

yeh sorry your right, i got a little carried away... spain is a bad idea... but there are many great properties that can be found round europe.... just try and stay away from "polaris world"... there con is creating these little english (language) communities.....

its like noddy world.. i just cringe when i hear people buying on a "high" market in these places.... the property market is like a cycle, these people like "polaris world" know it... but they dont care...

portomar

caff wrote: »

You have a valid point about the spanish housing market, however the poster was talking about prague, the eastern european economies are doing pretty well. In fact they are holding up the euro hence it been so strong against the dollar and sterling. Not that the market is risk free just that its not so much doom and gloom as you are making out.

and which, pray tell of these eastern european countries are in the euro to hold it up?? it because of differential rates that the euro is climbing versus pund and dollar.hungarys economy is on its arse, slovakia, czech and slovenia doing better.

Kanoe

portomar wrote: »

and which, pray tell of these eastern european countries are in the euro to hold it up?? it because of differential rates that the euro is climbing versus pund and dollar.hungarys economy is on its arse, slovakia, czech and slovenia doing better.

I don't kno about holding up the euro but my sister and her husband purchased an apt in bulgaria for 100,000 4 years ago and are about to sell for 150,000. Nice return for four years of doing nothing.

portomar

zxy wrote: »

I don't kno about holding up the euro but my sister and her husband purchased an apt in bulgaria for 100,000 4 years ago and are about to sell for 150,000. Nice return for four years of doing nothing.

very nice return, doesn't take away from the fact that most of the apartments targeted at western europeans are far out of the reach of the local population, a serious fall will come on most of this type of property, just a matter of when. good for your sister though.

eclectichoney

zxy wrote: »

I don't kno about holding up the euro but my sister and her husband purchased an apt in bulgaria for 100,000 4 years ago and are about to sell for 150,000. Nice return for four years of doing nothing.

A gross return of 10% isn't bad on the face of it but you'd get 4% sitting in a deposit account risk free. Also remember that tax is payable on the gain, as well as transation costs, insurance costs and so forth, all of which could be substantial. Plus you have the added worry that you may not be able to get shut of the thing when you need access to the money tied up in it.

BillyBobWinters

I notice that everyone is an expert on the Eastern European property market with predicitions of falls in prices etc. Well her is an example.

1 bed apartment 200 metres from beach in Sunny Beach, pool view. €58k including furniture, solicitor's fees and stamp duty etc. Value 12 months later approximately €75k.

I expect the price to increase to around 100k over the next 4 years and I dont see why that wouldn't be the case.

I will also use the apartment for a week per annum as the beach is ideal for my 3 year old son.

In Ireland i know a couple who paid €22k for a mobile home which is based in Dunmore East. The annual fee to "park" it is €1,800 and the mobile home has to be replaced every 5 years. They said it should be worth €7k then. That is a total cost of €23k over 5 yrs - my apartment cost €58k and it will still be there in 5 yrs.

dRNk SAnTA

BillyBobWinters wrote: »

I notice that everyone is an expert on the Eastern European property market with predicitions of falls in prices etc. Well her is an example.

1 bed apartment 200 metres from beach in Sunny Beach, pool view. €58k including furniture, solicitor's fees and stamp duty etc. Value 12 months later approximately €75k.

I expect the price to increase to around 100k over the next 4 years and I dont see why that wouldn't be the case.

I will also use the apartment for a week per annum as the beach is ideal for my 3 year old son.

In Ireland i know a couple who paid €22k for a mobile home which is based in Dunmore East. The annual fee to "park" it is €1,800 and the mobile home has to be replaced every 5 years. They said it should be worth €7k then. That is a total cost of €23k over 5 yrs - my apartment cost €58k and it will still be there in 5 yrs.

I think what people here are saying is that for eastern european property to gain value you need either:
1) a boom in the local economy to create local demand
2) demand from other wealthy foreigners (e.g. Irish or British investors).

On the first point - it seems a lot of property being sold to irish investors is already too expensive for locals.

On the second - the credit crunch and generally poor economic conditions will inevitably cool demand from other western europeans for a while.

So if you're going to buy a nice place as a holiday home and enjoy it as that - in the long run it will gain good value. But as a short term investment <5 years it may not be the best use of one's money.

gordon_gekko

lets get one thing straight , there never really was any genuine home grown property boom in eastern europe , the growth in property prices there was down to a spin off of the property boom in the uk and ireland
irish people saw there own houses in ireland continuing to rise year after year and when the jones,s next door bought a 1 bed by the black sea in bulgaria , well they had to keep up
they bought in bulgaria and hungary etc under the assumption that property there was as much of a sure thing as it was in castleknock or even mullingar
they forgot to remember that a 1 bed in budapest costing 90 k is more expensive than a 1 bed in dublin costing 400 k when you take into account the average anual wage in hungary

the only people other than the predatory irish estate agents who have made any money on property in eastern europe are the tiny minority of irish who got in on the act long before the phenomenon of property exhibition roadshows became an integral part of irish familys sunday afternoon outings
were talking pre 2003 here

portomar

BillyBobWinters wrote: »

I notice that everyone is an expert on the Eastern European property market with predicitions of falls in prices etc. Well her is an example.

1 bed apartment 200 metres from beach in Sunny Beach, pool view. €58k including furniture, solicitor's fees and stamp duty etc. Value 12 months later approximately €75k.

I expect the price to increase to around 100k over the next 4 years and I dont see why that wouldn't be the case.

I will also use the apartment for a week per annum as the beach is ideal for my 3 year old son.

In Ireland i know a couple who paid €22k for a mobile home which is based in Dunmore East. The annual fee to "park" it is €1,800 and the mobile home has to be replaced every 5 years. They said it should be worth €7k then. That is a total cost of €23k over 5 yrs - my apartment cost €58k and it will still be there in 5 yrs.

i dont know where to start... maybe lets get some more info if you wouldn't mind billybob?

where abouts is sunny beach? who sold it to you for that price and who gave you the second valuation? also has a similar apartment actualy exchanged hands for that money recently? do you rent the apartment out and does it cover the mortgage if you have one?

Fiachra2

A couple of comments on that post.

I believe there is a sunny beach in Bulgaria

I am fairly sure you would buy a 1 bedroom apartment in Bulgaria for less than 75K

If you asked housholders in Ireland 12-18 months ago I'm sure plenty of them would have expected their properties to appreciate by 33% over the next four years. Their views will probably now have changed.

Two girls who work with me have mobiles in the south east. They cost a lot more than 22K and are appreciating steadily. In addition they are expected to last in understand for 20-40 years.

gordon_gekko

Fiachra2 wrote: »

A couple of comments on that post.

I believe there is a sunny beach in Bulgaria

I am fairly sure you would buy a 1 bedroom apartment in Bulgaria for less than 75K

If you asked housholders in Ireland 12-18 months ago I'm sure plenty of them would have expected their properties to appreciate by 33% over the next four years. Their views will probably now have changed.

Two girls who work with me have mobiles in the south east. They cost a lot more than 22K and are appreciating steadily. In addition they are expected to last in understand for 20-40 years.

how can a mobile home appreciate , surely that is like claiming my car appreciated

Fiachra2

I was surprised too.

Basically they appreciate because demand far exceeds supply. There are a very limited number of Parks and no new ones being built (prresumably because of sewerag etc) and there is a huge demand.

Bear in mind these structures are much more long lasting than a car. They are in fact a common form of dwelling in the US. There is one near my parents house which must be at least 40 years old and appears to be in perfect condition.