Scandinavian high to bring colder weather but how cold?

darkman2

Hi,

Big changes coming in the weather over the next week as a large Anticyclone builds towards Scandinavia and the Low countries. This is a very interesting situation because it is only with setup's similar to this that we can get an Easterly. Some elements are missing this time - the GL high for example and the 850 temps look rather high over the continent. However the setup is very uncertain with some ensembles and models going for a much colder feed of air although they are in a minority. The GFS and ECM operational runs were both mild outliers this morning and the 00z GFS was quite good. Hopefully we get a southeasterly tracking low to undercut the high;) Regardless of the 850 temps (which could well improve as the days go on) the surface temperatures will eventually be pegged back to low single figures and it will feel quite raw at times. Essentially the outlook is dry in the short term.

Snowbie

Now atm it looks as if Ireland will sit on a boundary between both mild and cold airmass.The HP is not a scandi one as yet and seems to be placed in the North sea.This draggs up winds from biscay area.However the temps will lower significantly over Europe and this is good news.All we need is a wind swing to the SE or east and things will cool down here.

The pattern seems to be changing though with a slower jet so blocking will be on the increase or for the HP to retro back GL way.
Certainly interesting and can only be good news to colder worshippers.

ninebeanrows

Not too keen on it all, but we shall see what becomes of it.

Bob in Belfast

darkman2 wrote: »

Hi,

Big changes coming in the weather over the next week as a large Anticyclone builds towards Scandinavia and the Low countries. This is a very interesting situation because it is only with setup's similar to this that we can get an Easterly. Some elements are missing this time - the GL high for example and the 850 temps look rather high over the continent. However the setup is very uncertain with some ensembles and models going for a much colder feed of air although they are in a minority. The GFS and ECM operational runs were both mild outliers this morning and the 00z GFS was quite good. Hopefully we get a southeasterly tracking low to undercut the high;) Regardless of the 850 temps (which could well improve as the days go on) the surface temperatures will eventually be pegged back to low single figures and it will feel quite raw at times. Essentially the outlook is dry in the short term.

I wish i was more like you.
Do you want to come to my next dinner party?
You could entertain everybody with your weather stories!

Damomanye

i hope something becomes of this. I love ice/frost/snowy weather. Crisp clean air! Bring it on.

arctictree

Its had to tell how this will turn out at the stage. Although most models have HP lasting far into FI. The breakdown of it will either be incursion from the Atlantic or strong easterlies. No sign of either happening...

A

darkman2

Bob in Belfast wrote: »

Do you want to come to my next dinner party?

I think your looking for 'After Hours'. Its in the Recreation section. Plenty of folks there will be more then interested to take up your offer.;)



Back on topic - I think it will be a few days of cold but dry weather and it will probrably be foggy at times and frosty at night. After that the High Pressure will probrably sink into Europe allowing the wind and rain back just in time for Christmas.





Cold daytime temperatures

arctictree

GFS is showing very mild south westerlies from next Monday. I wonder if that will change...

A

Supercell

Bob in Belfast is talking a week out to focus on his dinner party preparations..

Back on topic have to say I'm not convinced this is going to deliver much apart from a few frosty nights to the midlands and west and drizzly damp here on the east. But its still early days yet.

ninebeanrows

ECM at T+144hrs is interesting.

Snow showers into the southeast.



850's



Potential for snow driven in from the east, 850's are good considering the air at ground level will be lower than normal due to the origin of the cold.

The ECM 144hr chart is a blinder:D

arctictree

Charts look good but maybe too much into FI at this stage?? Even if they were to come off, is it really cold enough in central France for it to stay below the critical temps across the sea?? Wind would have to be more easterly I think...

A

Snowbie

I feel this HP around the low countries has that sinking feeling more into europe.Yes arctictree an east wind would be colder than a France origin but its getting quite cool over there atm and for europe as a whole.

There is too much energy in the northern arm of the jet and will eventually push the HP into europe.I dont feel it will become the so call bartlett HP which draws the air from a more moist SW direction when the HP is located over France nor do i think there is a chance of a scandi HP but it will be more a continental airmass keeping it cool(SSE winds).Snow is a low possibility imo with just a cool cloudy type(stratus) stuff.

If only the northern jet relaxed a bit,there would be a chance of a scandi HP with our east wind but untill then a euro high is likely.

ninebeanrows

Snowbie wrote: »

I feel this HP around the low countries has that sinking feeling more into europe.Yes arctictree an east wind would be colder than a France origin but its getting quite cool over there atm and for europe as a whole.

There is too much energy in the northern arm of the jet and will eventually push the HP into europe.I dont feel it will become the so call bartlett HP which draws the air from a more moist SW direction when the HP is located over France nor do i think there is a chance of a scandi HP but it will be more a continental airmass keeping it cool(SSE winds).Snow is a low possibility imo with just a cool cloudy type(stratus) stuff.

If only the northern jet relaxed a bit,there would be a chance of a scandi HP with our east wind but untill then a euro high is likely.

Those were my thoughts this time yesterday but todays ECM and UKM and JMA are extremely interesting.

GFS is on its own at the moment, i wonder will we see changes on the 18z run of charts.

Snowbie

Weathercheck wrote: »

Those were my thoughts this time yesterday but todays ECM and UKM and JMA are extremely interesting.

GFS is on its own at the moment, i wonder will we see changes on the 18z run of charts.

I have not viewed them yet and at first i would pinch of salt this as it looks like the wrong side of stubborn HP for us but that sounds positive from 3 ensemble members.

I be AFK for awhile so post up the 18z when it happens,should be out now though.

Supercell

Arctictree if that chart comes off and there is precip , you and I wont see rain.

Snowbie

A gradual cool down on monday,temps here in the east i say around the 6-8c mark.18z keeps the HP stuck in the north sea-ish with SE winds more a feature.
Just a tad more towards scandi and be brill,doubt it though.

darkman2

Check out this mornings ECM:eek: -NAO - 1962 likes




http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html

Snowbie

@120hrs is interesting

ch750536

Just read up on the 1962 event, the met office in the UK has a lovely write up.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/anniversary/winter1962-63.html

'A gradual thaw then set in - the morning of 6 March 1963 was the first day in the year that the entire country was frost free, and the temperature soared to 17 °C in London. Temperatures recovered, and long icicles playfully speared into snowdrifts by children in January, finally started to shrink. Monster snowmen and snowballs - now adrift and melting in the green 'seas' of gardens and playing fields - were soon all that was left of the winter that was probably the coldest since 1795.'

darkman2

The GFS trending more with the ECM toward a pressure rise over GL. If this continues then the odds on a white Christmas will be shortened considerably. Still early days but the signs are good atm.

SpitfireIV

Interesting read, what was October to December period of 1962 like? anything out of the ordinary?

maquiladora

Morning all....

Interesting times away. The GFS is looking better with this today too.
It's going to be fun watching this develop over the next couple of days.

ninebeanrows

CroppyBoy1798 wrote: »

Interesting read, what was October to December period of 1962 like? anything out of the ordinary?

1962/63 was alot like this year, before Christmas it had been a mild winter and the synoptic pattern was similar to this. Before Christmas a innocuous high pressure much like the one setting up shop now, formed, it looked not much at first but a sudden pressure rise over Greenland resulted and a bitter Easterly raged in one shape or form for 3 months.

Do you believe in pattern matching though? I ain't too keen on it myself.

ninebeanrows

Interesting FAX chart this morning.

darkman2

IMO that fax chart is not very good. Firstly its at odds with the ECM and GFS anyway. Secondly for the medium term its not good as we dont get near a link to Greenland. Id gladly forego the risk of a few wintry showers for something more substantial further on.

ch750536

Weathercheck wrote: »

Do you believe in pattern matching though? I ain't too keen on it myself.

Knowing little about the weather but a lot about pattern matching in complex systems there is something to it.

Unfortunately you don't know 'something' until after the event.

The you need another 1000 to prove the theory.

But I do believe that weather modeling can be done with pattern matching of sorts, in fact, at a basic level that is what you do now.

End of off topic, sorry.

maquiladora

Well, looks like its still going to stay nippy but no sign of snow on the horizon....

Trogdor

Have been sick for the last few days, great charts to cheer me up now:p. That ECM is amazing, was yesterdays 12z better? I watched a forecast earlier on RTE and even though they didn't go out to Tuesday in the forecast. In the summary they showed snow in the southeast.

ninebeanrows

trogdor wrote: »

Have been sick for the last few days, great charts to cheer me up now:p. That ECM is amazing, was yesterdays 12z better? I watched a forecast earlier on RTE and even though they didn't go out to Tuesday in the forecast. In the summary they showed snow in the southeast.

Just looks like the HP cell is going nag on to us for a while. Tonights output are not terrible but boring cool and settled.

DOCARCH

Heard mention in Met E forecast on radio this morning of (possible) rain, sleet and snow next week (Tuesday) + wintery showers following for the East!

Was so busy all day that I have not heard forecast since.

ninebeanrows

DOCARCH wrote: »

Heard mention in Met E forecast on radio this morning of (possible) rain, sleet and snow next week (Tuesday) + wintery showers following for the East!

Was so busy all day that I have not heard forecast since.

Nah all gone, ECM et al have swung to boring nothingness and then a Bartlett.

Snowbie

In situations like this,its simple yet complex to forecast what and where this HP will go or do.
Its simple, that a HP in and around the 1045mb mark aint going to budge too easy and has shown in our case its stubborness being anchored in the north sea,just 300miles south of a full blown easterly for the last few days.

Its complex, that our northern arm of the jet has yet to intensify and squeeze the HP south into europe,and also the southern jet(which is stronger atm) will probably shove the iberian LP nothwards displacing the high to a more semi northern latitude ie:scotland steering in a strong east wind.

It is why atm the models are struggling to find a definitive outcome even in the reliable time frame and is why a situation like this has to be taken at face value one day at a time.
Yes it is easy to forecast a HP weather and type but positioning determines weather.
So if ECM or whatever ensemble you prefere indicates snow,cold,mild or windy lets say for monday,it should be ignored as there is a model struggle with both jets and HP positioning.

If we had a raging atlantic(zonal) well its simple to forecast but again LP positioning in this instance is the key to severity for wind and rain.In this HP setup now,i wouldnt trust a forecast being accurate well into reliable for 48hrs out.

Again if southern arm gets its act together,watch the HP retrogress towards Scotland or a little further north,if northern jet intensifys,HP will slip south.
To make it more complex,the exporting of LP from the US is the key for intensification of the jets.Which will win???? is anyones guess.

Danno

Look at the Low near the Azores: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/charts/FSXX00T_84.jpg

Now look at what is driving her: http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn8414.png

If she can be shunted onto the very high jet over the med... ???

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

Nah all gone, ECM et al have swung to boring nothingness and then a Bartlett.

All gone until the next model swing.

Supercell

At this stage I'd prefer zonal - cool overcast with no wind and no frost just bores the pants of me tbh.

Villain

Whats kind of change has the 12z thrown up: http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn2881.png ??

maquiladora

Villain wrote: »

Whats kind of change has the 12z thrown up: http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn2881.png ??

Hehehe
That run is entertaining, if nothing else.

Trogdor

Gives us our own tiny patch of sub -5C upper air next Friday as well with a rain/sleet/snow? breakdown. I think surface temps would be too high for snow though. All speculation though given that the charts have become so unreliable past around T+96 at best.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1682.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1684.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16817.png

SubjectSean

darkman2 wrote: »

but how cold?

Fairly cold

togster

Im in Sweden atm halfway between goteborg and malmo and its gotten very cold in the last few days. Was looking forward to coming home for xmas for some milder weather before the cold really hits here. Much more snow in Northern Sweden this year than last yeat too.

ninebeanrows

This high looks like clinging on and sucking any live out of the of Decembers winter chances, looks like an incredibly mild month is on the cards and another month of winter is set to fly by.

This winter aint looking good at the moment.

MUSEIST

Your negativity over this high is really spoiling the festive mood for me. I am suprised you are so negative about it considering that your blog seems to always go over the top every time we nearly have a snow event. D':ont you like this weather , its festive and it certainly will get cold over ireland next week.:p

ninebeanrows

MUSEIST wrote: »

Your negativity over this high is really spoiling the festive mood for me. I am suprised you are so negative about it considering that your blog seems to always go over the top every time we nearly have a snow event. D':ont you like this weather , its festive and it certainly will get cold over ireland next week.:p

Its just that its sucking days out of our winter.

And i do not find Anticyclonic Gloom in anyway festive:D

Gonzo

also as bad as our winters have become over the past 10 years I seem to remember that even during the good ole days back in the 80s and early 90s that December is nearly always poor for snow, often delivering nothing at all untill the last week of December and into January. January 1st to the end of February is usually our window of opportunity.

Supercell

I'm with WC on this MUSEIST( also known as..SubjectSean, wazzoraybelle, Duiske), anticyclonic gloom is really the pits of all weather conditions.

There is clear air over central UK at the moment giving nice sunny days and frosty nights.
If we can't have snow, thats just about my perfect winters day!, lets hope some of that makes its way eastwards.
I'm expecting a rather cool day tomorrow, temps have dropped to 2.7°C tonight and with the low cloud cover and weak sun, wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow doesnt top 4°C

Unless this high starts making motions northwards I'd wish it buggered off tbh , the jet is encouraging a little in that its moving south - if this high wasnt around we might have had a polar maritime low or two by now as a result with temporary snow cover (at low levels).

Snowbie

A good thing is for the continent to cool down.Thats good for the rest of winter.Any drawing of winds from there will reach our shores quicker than cold pooling over siberia and taking a week to arrive here swinging around a scandi block.

A bit of ice clear nights id agree be nice but i was worried last week that zonal would take hold for a few weeks and screw us up.Watch this space as there might be a breakdown closer to Xmas that might be interesting.Total FI speak.

arctictree

I've been watching this HP for a while and all charts are consistently showing a breakdown to milder weather next weekend. Hopefully, in the next day or two, this trend will break!

A

Mothman

We saw nothing of the very cold continent in Jan 06, but yes it certainly helps.
The Irish sea temperature is important as any cold weather to come our way has to cross sea. I keep a close eye on Bouy M2, for both sea temp, air temp and dew point


Sea temps continue to drop, reaching a min end of Feb, beginning of Mar. Its no coincidence that my coldest week on average is the first week of March.
Here are my 10 lowest mins
-5.5 7th Feb 2007
-5.1 1st Jan 2002
-4.9 1st Mar 2004
-4.7 3rd Mar 2006
-4.6 2nd Mar 2004
-4.3 2nd Mar 2001
-4.2 15th Feb 2003
-3.9 3rd Mar 2001
-3.9 2nd Jan 2002
-3.8 9th Mar 2004

See how often Mar is there, with 3 different years represented.
Irish sea temp are still at 11C, by end of Feb that figure should be down to 8C

As for this current muck, much rather have it now near beginning of winter and festive season rather than later on. It a long time till mid Mar, so still plenty of time left.

darkman2

Nothing really substantial on the horizon yet. Cold - yes but no snow. Should get milder by Christmas. Not expecting too much before January and still no real sign of pressure building toward GL which we need really.

Snowbie

It was a cool enough summer so i dont think sea temps are as high this time last year.Probably only a fraction in the difference as the gulf stream still sources are SST in the Irish sea.
Although lapse rates are reflected by SST's so if a sustained continental flow moves over warmer seas it increases lapse rates(formation of showers) but a warmer sea has the added addition of keeping us coastal resorts that bit cosier.Seems like we cant win on lower level.

I would only be convinced when 850mb temps are below -7c for snow at lower levels with -10 850mb temps are sufficient for snow on the beach or coast to settle and accumulate from an easterly direction.

Latchy

Hi , saw the door was open and just thought i would take a look in this room ,

Latch walks around the room......hmmm ,it's very cold in here .......

Latch leaves room .

Intresting topic , keep up the good work .