Scandinavian high to bring colder weather but how cold?

darkman2

Hi,

Big changes coming in the weather over the next week as a large Anticyclone builds towards Scandinavia and the Low countries. This is a very interesting situation because it is only with setup's similar to this that we can get an Easterly. Some elements are missing this time - the GL high for example and the 850 temps look rather high over the continent. However the setup is very uncertain with some ensembles and models going for a much colder feed of air although they are in a minority. The GFS and ECM operational runs were both mild outliers this morning and the 00z GFS was quite good. Hopefully we get a southeasterly tracking low to undercut the high;) Regardless of the 850 temps (which could well improve as the days go on) the surface temperatures will eventually be pegged back to low single figures and it will feel quite raw at times. Essentially the outlook is dry in the short term.

Snowbie

Now atm it looks as if Ireland will sit on a boundary between both mild and cold airmass.The HP is not a scandi one as yet and seems to be placed in the North sea.This draggs up winds from biscay area.However the temps will lower significantly over Europe and this is good news.All we need is a wind swing to the SE or east and things will cool down here.

The pattern seems to be changing though with a slower jet so blocking will be on the increase or for the HP to retro back GL way.
Certainly interesting and can only be good news to colder worshippers.

ninebeanrows

Not too keen on it all, but we shall see what becomes of it.

Bob in Belfast

darkman2 wrote: »

Hi,

Big changes coming in the weather over the next week as a large Anticyclone builds towards Scandinavia and the Low countries. This is a very interesting situation because it is only with setup's similar to this that we can get an Easterly. Some elements are missing this time - the GL high for example and the 850 temps look rather high over the continent. However the setup is very uncertain with some ensembles and models going for a much colder feed of air although they are in a minority. The GFS and ECM operational runs were both mild outliers this morning and the 00z GFS was quite good. Hopefully we get a southeasterly tracking low to undercut the high;) Regardless of the 850 temps (which could well improve as the days go on) the surface temperatures will eventually be pegged back to low single figures and it will feel quite raw at times. Essentially the outlook is dry in the short term.

I wish i was more like you.
Do you want to come to my next dinner party?
You could entertain everybody with your weather stories!

Damomanye

i hope something becomes of this. I love ice/frost/snowy weather. Crisp clean air! Bring it on.

arctictree

Its had to tell how this will turn out at the stage. Although most models have HP lasting far into FI. The breakdown of it will either be incursion from the Atlantic or strong easterlies. No sign of either happening...

A

darkman2

Bob in Belfast wrote: »

Do you want to come to my next dinner party?

I think your looking for 'After Hours'. Its in the Recreation section. Plenty of folks there will be more then interested to take up your offer.;)



Back on topic - I think it will be a few days of cold but dry weather and it will probrably be foggy at times and frosty at night. After that the High Pressure will probrably sink into Europe allowing the wind and rain back just in time for Christmas.





Cold daytime temperatures

arctictree

GFS is showing very mild south westerlies from next Monday. I wonder if that will change...

A

Supercell

Bob in Belfast is talking a week out to focus on his dinner party preparations..

Back on topic have to say I'm not convinced this is going to deliver much apart from a few frosty nights to the midlands and west and drizzly damp here on the east. But its still early days yet.

ninebeanrows

ECM at T+144hrs is interesting.

Snow showers into the southeast.



850's



Potential for snow driven in from the east, 850's are good considering the air at ground level will be lower than normal due to the origin of the cold.

The ECM 144hr chart is a blinder:D

arctictree

Charts look good but maybe too much into FI at this stage?? Even if they were to come off, is it really cold enough in central France for it to stay below the critical temps across the sea?? Wind would have to be more easterly I think...

A

Snowbie

I feel this HP around the low countries has that sinking feeling more into europe.Yes arctictree an east wind would be colder than a France origin but its getting quite cool over there atm and for europe as a whole.

There is too much energy in the northern arm of the jet and will eventually push the HP into europe.I dont feel it will become the so call bartlett HP which draws the air from a more moist SW direction when the HP is located over France nor do i think there is a chance of a scandi HP but it will be more a continental airmass keeping it cool(SSE winds).Snow is a low possibility imo with just a cool cloudy type(stratus) stuff.

If only the northern jet relaxed a bit,there would be a chance of a scandi HP with our east wind but untill then a euro high is likely.

ninebeanrows

Snowbie wrote: »

I feel this HP around the low countries has that sinking feeling more into europe.Yes arctictree an east wind would be colder than a France origin but its getting quite cool over there atm and for europe as a whole.

There is too much energy in the northern arm of the jet and will eventually push the HP into europe.I dont feel it will become the so call bartlett HP which draws the air from a more moist SW direction when the HP is located over France nor do i think there is a chance of a scandi HP but it will be more a continental airmass keeping it cool(SSE winds).Snow is a low possibility imo with just a cool cloudy type(stratus) stuff.

If only the northern jet relaxed a bit,there would be a chance of a scandi HP with our east wind but untill then a euro high is likely.

Those were my thoughts this time yesterday but todays ECM and UKM and JMA are extremely interesting.

GFS is on its own at the moment, i wonder will we see changes on the 18z run of charts.

Snowbie

Weathercheck wrote: »

Those were my thoughts this time yesterday but todays ECM and UKM and JMA are extremely interesting.

GFS is on its own at the moment, i wonder will we see changes on the 18z run of charts.

I have not viewed them yet and at first i would pinch of salt this as it looks like the wrong side of stubborn HP for us but that sounds positive from 3 ensemble members.

I be AFK for awhile so post up the 18z when it happens,should be out now though.

Supercell

Arctictree if that chart comes off and there is precip , you and I wont see rain.

Snowbie

A gradual cool down on monday,temps here in the east i say around the 6-8c mark.18z keeps the HP stuck in the north sea-ish with SE winds more a feature.
Just a tad more towards scandi and be brill,doubt it though.

darkman2

Check out this mornings ECM:eek: -NAO - 1962 likes




http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html

Snowbie

@120hrs is interesting

ch750536

Just read up on the 1962 event, the met office in the UK has a lovely write up.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/anniversary/winter1962-63.html

'A gradual thaw then set in - the morning of 6 March 1963 was the first day in the year that the entire country was frost free, and the temperature soared to 17 °C in London. Temperatures recovered, and long icicles playfully speared into snowdrifts by children in January, finally started to shrink. Monster snowmen and snowballs - now adrift and melting in the green 'seas' of gardens and playing fields - were soon all that was left of the winter that was probably the coldest since 1795.'

darkman2

The GFS trending more with the ECM toward a pressure rise over GL. If this continues then the odds on a white Christmas will be shortened considerably. Still early days but the signs are good atm.

SpitfireIV

Interesting read, what was October to December period of 1962 like? anything out of the ordinary?

maquiladora

Morning all....

Interesting times away. The GFS is looking better with this today too.
It's going to be fun watching this develop over the next couple of days.

ninebeanrows

CroppyBoy1798 wrote: »

Interesting read, what was October to December period of 1962 like? anything out of the ordinary?

1962/63 was alot like this year, before Christmas it had been a mild winter and the synoptic pattern was similar to this. Before Christmas a innocuous high pressure much like the one setting up shop now, formed, it looked not much at first but a sudden pressure rise over Greenland resulted and a bitter Easterly raged in one shape or form for 3 months.

Do you believe in pattern matching though? I ain't too keen on it myself.

ninebeanrows

Interesting FAX chart this morning.

darkman2

IMO that fax chart is not very good. Firstly its at odds with the ECM and GFS anyway. Secondly for the medium term its not good as we dont get near a link to Greenland. Id gladly forego the risk of a few wintry showers for something more substantial further on.

ch750536

Weathercheck wrote: »

Do you believe in pattern matching though? I ain't too keen on it myself.

Knowing little about the weather but a lot about pattern matching in complex systems there is something to it.

Unfortunately you don't know 'something' until after the event.

The you need another 1000 to prove the theory.

But I do believe that weather modeling can be done with pattern matching of sorts, in fact, at a basic level that is what you do now.

End of off topic, sorry.

maquiladora

Well, looks like its still going to stay nippy but no sign of snow on the horizon....

Trogdor

Have been sick for the last few days, great charts to cheer me up now:p. That ECM is amazing, was yesterdays 12z better? I watched a forecast earlier on RTE and even though they didn't go out to Tuesday in the forecast. In the summary they showed snow in the southeast.

ninebeanrows

trogdor wrote: »

Have been sick for the last few days, great charts to cheer me up now:p. That ECM is amazing, was yesterdays 12z better? I watched a forecast earlier on RTE and even though they didn't go out to Tuesday in the forecast. In the summary they showed snow in the southeast.

Just looks like the HP cell is going nag on to us for a while. Tonights output are not terrible but boring cool and settled.

DOCARCH

Heard mention in Met E forecast on radio this morning of (possible) rain, sleet and snow next week (Tuesday) + wintery showers following for the East!

Was so busy all day that I have not heard forecast since.

ninebeanrows

DOCARCH wrote: »

Heard mention in Met E forecast on radio this morning of (possible) rain, sleet and snow next week (Tuesday) + wintery showers following for the East!

Was so busy all day that I have not heard forecast since.

Nah all gone, ECM et al have swung to boring nothingness and then a Bartlett.