Anglo Irish Bank

Tarakiwa

I have heard a few rumours that Anglo Irish Bank are in a bit of financial trouble and that institutions are starting to / already have removed their funds from Anglo accounts.

Has anybody else heard what is going on?? Are we looking at another Northern Rock?

ionapaul

I've heard (not only rumours, but in some of the Sunday papers, whatever that is worth) that Anglo Irish is the most exposed of the Irish banks to the credit crunch. I also know a few people who have moved their savings out of the bank in recent times.

Tarakiwa

Mmmm. Interesting!
There is not usually smoke without fire!!

fobster

Tarakiwa wrote: »

Mmmm. Interesting!
There is not usually smoke without fire!!

Except in financial markets where hysteria and irrationality rule supreme.

dunkamania

so far all the rumours have been just that,rumours without base.

Unfortunately, in banking terms, smoke is as good as fire and a lack of confidence can break a bank.

daveirl

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SarahSassy

They are safe but they are not AS SAFE as other Irish Bank who would be able to lend based on larger balance sheets. Story is that Anglo need more deposits to fund their lending book.... They dont have the balance sheet back up that other Banks do so they are more under pressure to give high rates to get cash in....

Blackjack

Oddly enough Anglo appear to have been the only bank that has not lent to Michael Lynn and Thomas Byrne based on the Solicitors undertaking, and appears to be the only one of all the banks to have good security on their loans to either of these characters.

daveirl

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ircoha

Me thinks a little caution is in order here

the first post was

I have heard a few rumours that Anglo Irish Bank are in a bit of financial trouble and that institutions are starting to / already have removed their funds from Anglo accounts.

Has anybody else heard what is going on?? Are we looking at another Northern Rock?

Not a basis to run a thread.

IMO the links, real and perceived, between ISTC and Anglo is part of what is at play here

PDelux

Well one thing Anlgo has in common with Northern Rock is the large number of shares on loan which is seen as an indication of short interest.
It is quite high compared with AIB and BOI.

dunkamania

daveirl wrote: »

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Can you clarify on this

Time Magazine

ircoha wrote: »

Me thinks a little caution is in order here

Completely agreed. Everyone please be very careful of what you say. I think it's okay to discuss the financial situation of a bank, particularly in the current climate and when the Sunday papers have mentioned a thing or two. However, for obvious reasons anyone who makes a claim that is not reasonable discussion about the financial situation of the bank, or that could place Boards.ie in any difficult situations legally, will see themselves banned from this forum very quickly. So let's all keep it above board and use the Report a Post function if any of you think a comment is out of line.

IMO the links, real and perceived, between ISTC and Anglo is part of what is at play here

Agreed.

daveirl

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PDelux

Where can you get those figures? I was looking around for them one day but couldn't find them.

I know what you mean it's surprisingly difficult to find it for UK and Irish stocks.
This is where i get the info from:
http://www.crestco.co.uk/
The monthly data is free but you have to pay for the daily data.

For the US equivalent I use:
http://quotes.nasdaq.com/asp/MasterDataEntry.asp?page=ShortInterest

Popsicle

I would agree with what a previous poster said regarding the link between ISTC and Anglo.

Anglo post results on Nov 28th so we will get some (maybe!!) clarification then!

Time Magazine

Popsicle wrote: »

Anglo post results on Nov 28th so we will get some (maybe!!) clarification then!

And it's good news.

Anglo shares surge on reassuring results
Wednesday, 28 November 2007 12:39

Shares in Anglo Irish Bank have jumped by more than 10% in Dublin after it reported pre-tax profits of just under €1.25 billion for the year to the end of September, up 46% on the same period last year and the first time the figure has topped €1 billion.

The results and accompanying comments from the bank appeared to reassure investors concerned about the effects of the recent crisis in credit markets on banking profits.

Net lending to customers was up 37% to €67.1 billion, while the amount of lending in the pipeline was €9.8 billion.

Anglo Irish chief executive David Drumm told RTE radio that the 37% lending growth this year would moderate next year, and the longer-term sustainable growth rate for the bank was 15-20%.

On the current crisis in the financial markets, Mr Drumm said the practice of spreading risk by parcelling out pieces of debt was a risk, and Anglo operated in a different way and looked at every loan individually.

He said the bank had taken a €67m impairment provision, which he described as a prudent measure to cover its exposure to structured investment vehicles (SIVs), which had been hit by the problems in credit markets.

Underlying earnings per share were 41% higher at 131.7 cent, and a final dividend of just over 13 cent will be paid, giving a 20% higher total of 19.49 cent for the year.

Mr Drumm said the bank had 'a resilient funding platform, excellent liquidity and capital strength', adding that underlying earnings growth was expected to be over 15% in 2008.

Referring to the turmoil in financial markets, Mr Drumm said the bank had been prudent, and had a low level of bad loans - just 0.5% of total lending. 'The bank does not engage in speculative development lending,' he added.

In a statement accompanying the results, Anglo chairman Sean Fitzpatrick said that while it was hard to predict when the current problems in financial markets would settle, the forthcoming releases of full-year results from banks would be 'an important step in this direction'.

He added that while economic growth in its markets would ease, this would be partly offset by a more benign outlook for interest rates.

Anglo Irish Bank said it added 320 staff during the financial year, bringing staff numbers to 1,873.

Anglo Irish shares were up more than 12% at €11.22 in Dublin this lunchtime.

daveirl

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Sonnenblumen

ircoha wrote: »

Me thinks a little caution is in order here

the first post was



Not a basis to run a thread.

IMO the links, real and perceived, between ISTC and Anglo is part of what is at play here

In light of Anglo's results, your comments look very foolish, perhaps you and PDelux could share some hat?:D

daveirl

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PDelux

In light of Anglo's results, your comments look very foolish, perhaps you and PDelux could share some hat?

I'm not sure what that reference to me means and it is very tempting to ignore it but i would hate to think that your comment suggests i was pro or anti Anglo. So i am reluctantly forced to give a reply,
What I said about the large percentage of Anglo shares on loan was not an opinion, it is fact. Look at the CREST data. Those short sellers would have made alot of money on the way down and part of yesterdays big percentage gain would have been those short sellers closing their positions to take profit or new short sellers closing positions to limit losses(because stock sold short always represents future demand).

portomar

aib will probably say something along the lines of "mortgage sales are slowing like we preicted, faster thatn we predicted, oh please fianna fail cut stamp duty, poor us" similar to the auctioneers association, friends first etc. whats worse is people actually think this is newsworthy. STOP THE PRESSES! A business association wants tax cuts! I was suprised by anglos results, glad i didnt try short it, but then i am a perma-bear at the moment.

pokermonkey

... an anglo employee looks on with a smug smile plastered across his face.

ircoha

Sonnenblumen wrote: »

In light of Anglo's results, your comments look very foolish, perhaps you and PDelux could share some hat?:D

Selectively editing my post is not very helpful, but that was not your intention. Your record of continually sniping at my input on boards.ie is already noted.

This, the opening post in the thread, is what you chose to omit

I have heard a few rumours that Anglo Irish Bank are in a bit of financial trouble and that institutions are starting to / already have removed their funds from Anglo accounts.

Has anybody else heard what is going on?? Are we looking at another Northern Rock?

I was concerned about the potential liability to boards.ie if this thread got out of hand.

daveirl

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Time Magazine

ircoha wrote: »

Selectively editing my post is not very helpful, but that was not your intention. Your record of continually sniping at my input on boards.ie is already noted.

Needless to say if you're unhappy with somebody's posts you can report them. If you think it's a catalogue of attacks, mention this in the report and it will be investigated.

Sonnenblumen: play nice.

Sonnenblumen

ircoha wrote: »

Your record of continually sniping at my input on boards.ie is already noted.

I was concerned about the potential liability to boards.ie if this thread got out of hand.

Surely to talk around any real or perceived links is complete fudge. Why not tackle the post firsthand, if there's a more serious liability aspect well surely there are plenty of minders to do the minding.

The OP and a number of other posters were bandwagoning rumours about Anglo, and as was patently demonstrated by the company's excellent results, complete crap which I am genuinely surprised was tolerated in the Investment forum.

I've no awareness of the sniping and what's noted? If there is, well perhaps there were reasons, but disagreement is hardly sniping, and you should know better than me, in the cut and thrust of exchanges, why would anyone be surprised to encounter an abundance of disagreement on boards.

SarahSassy

Blackjack wrote: »

Oddly enough Anglo appear to have been the only bank that has not lent to Michael Lynn and Thomas Byrne based on the Solicitors undertaking, and appears to be the only one of all the banks to have good security on their loans to either of these characters.

I believe Ulster Bank havent. First Active recently changed into Ulster Bank and they had lent the money.... It was in the papers about 3 weeks ago as First Active and this week as Ulster Bank.

Time Magazine

Sonnenblumen wrote: »

if there's a more serious liability aspect well surely there are plenty of minders to do the minding.

Plenty of minders, but it never hurts to have people to flag things to us. You should know this. His post was noted for its helpfulness.

complete crap which I am genuinely surprised was tolerated in the Investment forum.

You know better than to question moderating on-thread. You're well aware any of the mods will reply to a PM on the matter.

Cop on tbh.

SarahSassy

pokermonkey wrote: »

... an anglo employee looks on with a smug smile plastered across his face.

The are still unable to lend the big bucks cos their balance sheet cant fund it.... Maybe next years profits will tell the real tale.

daveirl

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Sonnenblumen

daveirl wrote: »

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A bit of a dilemma here, is it the Doomsday Principle, ie "we're all goin' DIEEEEEEEEE" but when? Or is it Samuel Beckett, " It didn't happen this year, it's because it's going to happen next year"

Lumpy mattresses back in fashion next year?

daveirl

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ircoha

daveirl wrote: »

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Not just entitled to, but most probably will be proven correct. The mess in sub-prime is only an entree for the mess that will occur in Alt-A on '08.

The other problem is that there is a fear that some of the big US banks have used Enron type SPV's and the hedging markets to hide some of the non-performing loans.

Sonnenblumen

daveirl wrote: »

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Is this a fountain of wisdom - or is it pissing in the wind? SP is down yeah (<50% of '07 peak) but if you're smart you would have bought Anglo ages ago, in which case you'd be riding high. I did buy Anglo and continue to do every year, most recently last week. I don't wait for some bright spark to start buying. I do my homework and buy to hold.

I don't remember saying C&C are a dead cert? Yes I was tempted and I think they are probably a good buy, but the risk currently outweighs the potential upside.

Have I attitude No. I just don't like pissy pants panic. Enjoy your waiting, I'm sure you'll make some money sometime.

BTW what calls have you made ?? I don't remember any good or bad?

Why not expand on why you see no fin recovery in '08, and more interestingly when then??

daveirl

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Sonnenblumen

Why are you repeating? So what fins are down and C&C, can you or I tell the future?? NO. Do we read newspapers ? YES. Did anyone foresee the credit squeeze and more specifically the extent to which it has impacted on Irish Fins ? NO. C&C has hit an unexpected bad period? Maurice Pratt has an exemplary track record, most probably better than you or I could dream about. But the stock is down.

Anyways, I thought this was an 'open' forum where posters might put up views but not the DaveIrl 'I told You So' Forum!

Indecision is weakness, making the ocacasional wrong decision does not invalidate the process. We've still to hear anything about your decisions, no doubt they've been singularly linear successes??

What's pissy pants - well for starters people getting unecessarily scared following the imaginary link between aformentioned credit squeeze (precipitated by Sub Prime in USA) and European Banks including Anglo?

daveirl

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pokermonkey

SarahSassy wrote: »

The are still unable to lend the big bucks cos their balance sheet cant fund it.... Maybe next years profits will tell the real tale.

hmm, quantify big bucks?

obviously i won't be disclosing any sensitive information, but if you read through Anglo's results, funding is not a problem.

i think we can all agree the year ahead will be slower than previous years, but in my humble opinion, the glo are in a strong position to outperform consensus (as usual).

plus, :rolleyes: my share options will be tastily low this year.

as for what a previous poster said about drummer putting his job on the line.... i suppose thats true, but sure the same can be said for all ceo's when they speak of how their company will perform in the coming year.

anyhow, all this is guesswork. i'll be the first to say i don't understand the markets....so here's hoping the iseq stays above the 6500 figure!!!!

daveirl

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Tarakiwa

Wow ...............

I started this thread a few months back and decided to check back on it this morning. I am AMAZED at just what I started!!

I am a novice.
I have no / very little investment experience.
I was just looking for a bit of help / advise from the helpful members of this board.

I thank those of you who offered an opinion.

T

IrishMike

Anglo going down to €8.50 a share perhaps?

daveirl

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pokermonkey

i'm a buyer

Sonnenblumen

daveirl wrote: »

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Buyers buy, suckers deliberate/moan. Thats how money is made!

daveirl

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DJDC

Lost 6% today.

Heres a tip for all you expert investors. Stay clear of irish banks for the moment.Why?
1) Over exposure to property related debt
2) Many construction firms are Ltd companies. If things go belly up, they'll claim insolvency, leaving the banks with some serious problems.

Give it 6 months.Anyone who invests now is a pure gambler.

Mikel

They wrote off more Sivs. The banks are the big play in my opinion. the question is when to go long. At some point we'll all be looking back saying we could have loaded up on Anglo or AIB etc, the question is where and when.
There's a lot of bad news already priced in, it will be interesting to see where the turn is

Hanley

DJDC wrote: »

Lost 6% today.

Heres a tip for all you expert investors. Stay clear of irish banks for the moment.Why?
1) Over exposure to property related debt
2) Many construction firms are Ltd companies. If things go belly up, they'll claim insolvency, leaving the banks with some serious problems.

Give it 6 months.Anyone who invests now is a pure gambler.

In the long run tho, BOI and AIB should bounce back right? It might take a few years, but eventually they should come back. You might pay more now to get them, but 5 years down the road you should have made money on them. As someone with a very limited knowledge base on all of this that's what I'd be thinking. Maybe I'm wrong tho...

Also, if property firms start to go belly up won't that push the housing market into future trouble? The banks get their assets on liquidation (newly built houses) and want to get rid of them to get their money back further pushing up the supply and driving down prices? Leading to further defaulting since builders margins have further decreased. Is it a case of a vicious circle being likely to form? or have I missed the ball again completely....

ixus

Hanley wrote: »

In the long run tho, BOI and AIB should bounce back right?

Why do they have to bounce back to the last years levels?
Where are they going to make the vast profits they've made over the last number of years? I don't think we'll see such a housing or credit boom again anytime soon (well we shouldn't). So where will the banks get there inflated profits from to get these inflated share prices?

Who's to say both or any of these banks will be around in years to come?
Look at Citi, it appears to be going to the wall and it has a much greater history than any Irish bank.

I'm not saying a rise in share prices can't happen in the future. I just don't see how they will make previous profits. Anglo became so popular amongst builders because it would take a chance on builders, it took on more risk for a larger %. It's now suffering because of the current aversion to risk .

Mikel

ixus wrote: »

Why do they have to bounce back to the last years levels?
Where are they going to make the vast profits they've made over the last number of years? I don't think we'll see such a housing or credit boom again anytime soon (well we shouldn't). So where will the banks get there inflated profits from to get these inflated share prices?

Actually Anglo are predicting earnings GROWTH of 15% for 6mths to mar 08, and underlying profit growth higher than that. So they're making MORE profit.
The banks are all around 6 - 8 times earnings, cheap historically, cheapest in Europe. So you can make a strong case that they are undervalued.
They will get back to last years level, it could be next year, could be 5 or more. If I knew I wouldn't be here.

Who's to say both or any of these banks will be around in years to come?
Look at Citi, it appears to be going to the wall and it has a much greater history than any Irish bank.

History has nothing to do with it. Some bank or other will probably go under as a result of sub prime exposure, not an Irish bank though.
If they go it will be a takeover, BOI most likely. If you're long at the time, happy days!!