lol, satelliteaments - FT hand from last night

El Stuntman

SE satellite to their upcoming 1000 game in November last night...

We're at the final table and seven-handed. I have ~28k.
Total chips in play = 208k so almost bang on average. Couple of below average players left at the FT plus some good regs.

First 4 places get a ticket worth €1100 and 5th gets the change (€600)

I'm in the SB with JTo, blinds are 400/800 with an ante of 50

UTG limps (loose, serial limper) and the Button also limps (probably most aggro player left on the table). I complete and BB checks his option. Button has ~26k

Pot = 3550

Flop is T32 rainbow and I lead for 2800. BB folds, UTG limper folds and Button calls.

Turn is a jack completing the rainbow and I lead for 7000. Button takes about 10 seconds and goes all-in.

Given the situation, who folds here?

sikes

instal call, sometimes he will have a set for sure, but against an aggro unknown live you will see KQ, Jx, 66-99 and other crap he is having a brain fart with.

LuckyLloyd

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sikes

Although we are just outside of the tickets, we have a below average stack, so we are going to need to double our chips at some stage before the hand, and if we fold we will have to triple them, roughly speaking. So I dont think we should consider folding on the basis its a sat, if its +cEV to push here, it should be +$EV

El Stuntman

sikes wrote:

Although we are just outside of the tickets, we have a below average stack, so we are going to need to double our chips at some stage before the hand, and if we fold we will have to triple them, roughly speaking. So I dont think we should consider folding on the basis its a sat, if its +cEV to push here, it should be +$EV

thanks Sikes, this is what I was driving at really. Any maths for me?

LuckyLloyd

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El Stuntman

LuckyLloyd wrote:

By this I mean - in a normal tournament we get it in here fully expecting to be ahead of some ridiculous rubbish - but even bad live players may have adjusted their ranges for tanking it massively by this point in the tournament.

this guy wasn't a bad player

ianmc38

Im calling all day here

bops

at this stage of the tourney you should have a clear plan of how you are going to get a ticket. You have a healthy stack in relation to the blinds, so:
a) you are going to nit it up and wait for other to go broke, or
b) play v aggro and put pressure on the others

you chose the common and wrong option of
c) neither - i didn't really think about it tbh!!

looking at the hand from the point of view of a)
complete sb and c/c affordable bets only if you are v confident that yhig

looking at the hand from the point of view of b)
raise pf, bet flop strong, and push turn

looking at the hand from the point of view of c)
limp
bet the flop strong coz you think you have the best hand
bet the turn strong, nearly pot commiting yourself in the process, coz you think your hand in strong
eventualy realise that the button probably has 22/33 and you're fooked!!

leading the turn for so much is horrid after the aggro button liming and calling a big bet on a dry board otf...whatever he has he has played it perfecly:
ie - 1) limped in in position with small pp, floped a set, and watch you hang yourself, or 2) has fuk all, but has put you in a horrible place - you gotta give him credit for that!!

so in summary, your mistake was made before the hand started

..as played i'd fold coz i'm good enough to play with fk all chips
gl buddy!

Ollieboy

when is the 1k event, didn't see anything about it etc?

bops

Ollieboy wrote:

when is the 1k event, didn't see anything about it etc?

friday the 23rd november i think - check antesup

El Stuntman

thanks for clearing that up bops

bops

El Stuntman wrote:

thanks for clearing that up bops

no problem, im just in a charitable humour and feel it's good sometimes to share some of my vast knowledge & experience

bops

El Stuntman wrote:

thanks Sikes, this is what I was driving at really. Any maths for me?

oooh i'm sorry! - silly me - you were looking for maths?

Call = +++EV

i hope that is more helpful

El Stuntman

bops wrote:

no problem, im just in a charitable humour and feel it's good sometimes to share some of my vast knowledge & experience

I feel humbled that a man of your stature would spend some of his valuable time answering my foolish questions

rogue trader

Hi El Stuntman. I was the villain in this hand. While i think this hand really plays itself after the turn brings a jack i do have a couple of points.

When i sat down initially, you had a very healthy stack and after watching the first few orbits (especially when it was your big blind), i felt that you were going to box clever and not get tangled up in a pot unnecessarily. For example, I can only remember you raising twice.

So 2 things that surprised me
One your bet sizes in this hand.

I think 1800/2000 rather than 2800 on the flop would have had the same effect. This would have left the pot at 7500ish. The real sin however, was your turn bet (that is if you can ever get away from this hand - i certainly wouldn't have been able to). 7k meant that you had over 10k invested making my decision to go all in and yours to call easy.

I think your startegy was a good one as there were some short stacks but where it failed was the fact that you failed to use your image well enough on the button to steal and you lost control of the size of the pot in this particular hand.

Overall, don't beat yourself up over this as it's not a bad call. If you felt you could lay this down, you couldn't here as you had too much in the middle.

Alan

bops

in order to obtain the correct answer one must ask the correct question mr stuntman

El Stuntman

rogue trader wrote:

Hi El Stuntman. I was the villain in this hand. While i think this hand really plays itself after the turn brings a jack i do have a couple of points.

When i sat down initially, you had a very healthy stack and after watching the first few orbits (especially when it was your big blind), i felt that you were going to box clever and not get tangled up in a pot unnecessarily. For example, I can only remember you raising twice.

So 2 things that surprised me
One your bet sizes in this hand.

I think 1800/2000 rather than 2800 on the flop would have had the same effect. This would have left the pot at 7500ish. The real sin however, was your turn bet (that is if you can ever get away from this hand - i certainly wouldn't have been able to). 7k meant that you had over 10k invested making my decision to go all in and yours to call easy.

I think your startegy was a good one as there were some short stacks but where it failed was the fact that you failed to use your image well enough on the button to steal and you lost control of the size of the pot in this particular hand.

Overall, don't beat yourself up over this as it's not a bad call. If you felt you could lay this down, you couldn't here as you had too much in the middle.

Alan

for anyone trying to follow this; I called and rogue trader had 33 for a flopped set, no miracle river and I was gone two hands later.

Hi RT - I thought I recognised you from somewhere! (glad I described you as a good player ).

re. the lack of stealing, I was really card dead at the FT (AQ once which I had to lay down after a strong reraise from a rock, he had AA) and the two villains to my immediate left had made an unpleasant habit of reraising my steals on our previous table so I had made a conscious decision to avoid entanglement without a real hand. Especially with the relatively forgiving blinds structure and two players who were likely to self-destruct.

Your comments re. the bet sizing are valid (~75% of pot on flop and same on turn), the turn Jack was the worst possible card for me though and the hand played itself from there, meh.
TBH, I Can't say I would have got away from it even if I'd bet the amounts you suggest!

Cash game player, what can I say?

NH, who got the tickets?

n.b. - I thought the most notable hand of the night was the one where Oz called for virtually all his chips on a AAxx board with villain having led flop and turn. Would be interested in any thoughts on that...

ollyk1

I'm not mad about leading this flop at all. What was the plan if it comes a blank on the turn??

El Stuntman

ollyk1 wrote:

I'm not mad about leading this flop at all. What was the plan if it comes a blank on the turn??

so you check the flop and the button bets 2000, what do you do? fold?

rogue trader

Oz, myself, the serial limper and tony (large bald fella) got the tickets in the end. wes bubbled unfort and the chap in the red got €600.

yeah that hand you referred to with AAxx was certainly the best hand i saw on the night. I thought both players played it brilliantly. Some call!

El Stuntman

rogue trader wrote:

Oz, myself, the serial limper and tony (large bald fella) got the tickets in the end. wes bubbled unfort and the chap in the red got €600.

yeah that hand you referred to with AAxx was certainly the best hand i saw on the night. I thought both players played it brilliantly. Some call!

oz deserved the ticket for that call alone

some players you might just say 'station' but I thought both players played the hand excellently - it's not often you have everyone at the table congratulating both the winner and guy reaching for his coat!

LuckyLloyd

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El Stuntman

LuckyLloyd wrote:

Does anyone know what the structure is going to be for the 1k game?

it's a 3 dayer, that's all I know

oh, and I won't be playing it...

ollyk1

El Stuntman wrote:

so you check the flop and the button bets 2000, what do you do? fold?

I probably call against the villain as described.

If you lead and get raised you can't call (in this particular hand that would be a good thing but you can get bluffed of it quite easily given the lead out).

bottom feeder

rogue trader wrote:

Oz, myself, the serial limper and tony (large bald fella) got the tickets in the end. wes bubbled unfort and the chap in the red got €600.

yeah that hand you referred to with AAxx was certainly the best hand i saw on the night. I thought both players played it brilliantly. Some call!

Yeah went out on the dreaded bubble and to rub salt into the wounds it was my bestest buddy in the whole world that knocked me out....^^^ (not) :mad: :mad: to say i was steaming was an under statement. The only positive thing is I didn’t have to rebuy.

Anyway back to OP - the way the hand was played out i don’t think El stuntman could get away from this, i think your lead out on the flop was a good bet as i taught you had a monster due to your image - it was just unfortunate that he has a set here. it was UL man.

LuckyLloyd

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Taxipete29

Think that ya had to call really and were unlucky to run into the set, but have to say always prefer a raise pre-flop, so not allowing small PP cheap flops which as we see can get ya into big trouble. Im always suspicious of aggro players limping ,especially in position

LuckyLloyd

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bottom feeder

Taxipete29 wrote:

Think that ya had to call really and were unlucky to run into the set, but have to say always prefer a raise pre-flop, so not allowing small PP cheap flops which as we see can get ya into big trouble. Im always suspicious of aggro players limping ,especially in position

With 10 Jo in the small blind....?

edit - ^^^ lloyd has got there before me...

Flushdraw

UL on missing out Wes..cant believe Slimer got a ticket and you didnt....

Cograts to the lads on tickets. EL S..It was a tough hand to get away from because the way the hand played out from PF to the turn push, its hard to put him on any hand that you beat but its still a tough laydown and not one that a lot of players could make until they have time to think about it afterwards.

Theres always the next time!

Taxipete29

I agree folding would be better, but ya got 2 limpers so what do ya do if BB raises, fold?. I think better to raise and clear out other players who may not like their hand as much with a raise. If ya get called by more than one player then you probably less likely to lead out on the flop even with top pair.Maybe save your chips

bottom feeder

Flushdraw wrote:

UL on missing out Wes..cant believe Slimer got a ticket and you didnt....

Cograts to the lads on tickets. EL S..It was a tough hand to get away from because the way the hand played out from PF to the turn push, its hard to put him on any hand that you beat but its still a tough laydown and not one that a lot of players could make until they have time to think about it afterwards.

Theres always the next time!

yeah still a bit sick over it Tony ... but what ya gona do...;)

BigCityBanker

LuckyLloyd wrote:

Does anyone know what the structure is going to be for the 1k game?

I think its a 1 hour clock with a 10k starting stack with blinds starting at 25/50, all levels included and antes introduced at the repeat of the 150/300 level.

Im sure you can find better value/ better structured tournaments for your money - this will harldy appeal to you.

ianmc38

slimer. lol.

Glowingmind

Flushdraw wrote:

UL on missing out Wes..cant believe Slimer got a ticket and you didnt....

That cracked me up. Brightened up my day no end.

ollyk1

bottom feeder wrote:

i think your lead out on the flop was a good bet as i taught you had a monster due to your image

This is my point El S, you are effectively bluffing with top pair given your image and get action from hands that beat you. Not good. Keep the pot manageable oop for me. Check call here.

If you were playing looser then a lead has merit but with your image I'm not loving a lead into three players with your hand holding in a tournie 30 BB's deep.

El Stuntman

ollyk1 wrote:

This is my point El S, you are effectively bluffing with top pair given your image and get action from hands that beat you. Not good. Keep the pot manageable oop for me. Check call here.

If you were playing looser then a lead has merit but with your image I'm not loving a lead into three players with your hand holding in a tournie 30 BB's deep.

taken on board olly

now...we have c/c'd a 2000 button bet and the turn comes a jack giving us top two...c/c again? what's the plan for the river?

slimer - class Tony, I'm LOLing still. ul Wes

El Stuntman

Flushdraw wrote:

Cograts to the lads on tickets. EL S..It was a tough hand to get away from because the way the hand played out from PF to the turn push, its hard to put him on any hand that you beat but its still a tough laydown and not one that a lot of players could make until they have time to think about it afterwards.
!

yes, key point there - I didn't take long enough to think it through and really think I could have gotten away from it if I had taken longer to consider what his flop flat call meant. A weakness in my game for sure, I play every hand that I'm involved in as though the online 30 second clock was ticking!

ditpoker

i dont like calling cos its +EV in the long term. we're not playing every tournament ever here, we're just playing this one. roguetrader is a solid player, and he's not bluffing to the pot this size with air. surely its better to try and triple up with very few chips then trying to triple up with no chips from the rail

ditpoker

i dont like calling cos its +EV in the long term. we're not playing every tournament ever here, we're just playing this one. roguetrader is a solid player, and he's not bluffing to the pot this size with air. surely its better to try and triple up with very few chips then trying to triple up with no chips from the rail

ozpoker

Very hard hand to get away from El S. One thing you may have missed, and RT may not have realized it either, but RT clearly liked this flop a lot. He was a little indecisive when he called your flop bet; he looked like he seriously considered a raise. It was such a dry board, that I put small set in his range on the flop.

After getting the really bad turn card, I doubt that I could get away from the hand with any betting line, but I may have knowing a set was a good part of RT's range.

Unlucky, but this is the sort of hand that supersat bubbles frequently revolve around.

-Oz-

bottom feeder

well done on getting a ticket OZ, btw very impressive call with the JJ...

LuckyLloyd

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ozpoker

bottom feeder wrote:

well done on getting a ticket OZ, btw very impressive call with the JJ...

Thanks, Wes. Rather than highjacking this thread, I'll start another one to explain my thinking.

-Oz-

ollyk1

El Stuntman wrote:

taken on board olly

now...we have c/c'd a 2000 button bet and the turn comes a jack giving us top two...c/c again? what's the plan for the river?

slimer - class Tony, I'm LOLing still. ul Wes

Then I might represent a flop float and lead into the flop better and probably go broke lol!!

I was just talking generally about the flop lead really. Obviously the turn is a serious cooler card and trying to get away in a standard tournie would be impossible but in a sattellite you could "perhaps" find a fold but as you know I'm a station.....:o

sikes

El Stuntman wrote:

thanks Sikes, this is what I was driving at really. Any maths for me?

Well completly ignoring any skill edge you may have, I guess you could work it out like this roughly. All we have to look at is you eqiuty if you get your double up now.

There are 7 players left, with 4 tickets, and the stacks are fairly even, which makes things a lot easier for this, so we can assume that an average stack has 57% equity.

Now consider the effect of your double up, and assume you both had the same chip count, cos it makes it easier. The average stacks equity is 66%, cos 1 guy is gone. But you have double the average, and I would imagine your equity is ~85%.

So if you fold, your stack is 60% of the average, 18k, so you prob have roughly 34% equity.

So now we need to see how much equity we need if we get it all to now, to break even.

x(equ if you win) - (1-x)(equ if you lose) = 35 (break even, what we get if we fold)

x(85) - (1-x)(0) = 34
x= 34/85
x=.411

So now to the hand,

Preflop pot -> 3550
Flop pot after betting -> 3550 + (2800*2)
Turn up to your decision -> 3550 + (2800*2) + (7000*2) + 18200

So you have to stick in 18200 into 41350 which is 30.75% / .3075

So obviously there is a difference in the equity required, however, once you add in hands other that sets into his range, they are so much more likely that you are not beaten. If you get my drift, if his range is only 33/44, then fold both from a cEV point of view and a $EV point of view but say he could have Tx, or Jx, or brainfart, then both become a call.

Board: 3h 4s Tc Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 09.091% 09.09% 00.00% 168 0.00 { JTo }
Hand 1: 90.909% 90.91% 00.00% 1680 0.00 { 44-33 }

Board: 3h 4s Tc Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.273% 52.27% 00.00% 1932 0.00 { JTo }
Hand 1: 47.727% 47.73% 00.00% 1764 0.00 { 99, 44-33 }

EDIT: I think that all makes sense, didnt realise it would be that lon

Ace2007

would check calling/foldin the turn not have been a better option, for i imagine on a 1023 board, the chances of villian playin with 45 at this stage are remote and therefore wen he called the flop bet - wat u put him on, if you put him on a 10, would check/call/raise not be a better option, as play you were pot committed if villian pushed as he did...

rogue trader

sikes wrote:

Well completly ignoring any skill edge you may have, I guess you could work it out like this roughly. All we have to look at is you eqiuty if you get your double up now.

There are 7 players left, with 4 tickets, and the stacks are fairly even, which makes things a lot easier for this, so we can assume that an average stack has 57% equity.

Now consider the effect of your double up, and assume you both had the same chip count, cos it makes it easier. The average stacks equity is 66%, cos 1 guy is gone. But you have double the average, and I would imagine your equity is ~85%.

So if you fold, your stack is 60% of the average, 18k, so you prob have roughly 34% equity.

So now we need to see how much equity we need if we get it all to now, to break even.

x(equ if you win) - (1-x)(equ if you lose) = 35 (break even, what we get if we fold)

x(85) - (1-x)(0) = 34
x= 34/85
x=.411

So now to the hand,

Preflop pot -> 3550
Flop pot after betting -> 3550 + (2800*2)
Turn up to your decision -> 3550 + (2800*2) + (7000*2) + 18200

So you have to stick in 18200 into 41350 which is 30.75% / .3075

So obviously there is a difference in the equity required, however, once you add in hands other that sets into his range, they are so much more likely that you are not beaten. If you get my drift, if his range is only 33/44, then fold both from a cEV point of view and a $EV point of view but say he could have Tx, or Jx, or brainfart, then both become a call.

Board: 3h 4s Tc Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 09.091% 09.09% 00.00% 168 0.00 { JTo }
Hand 1: 90.909% 90.91% 00.00% 1680 0.00 { 44-33 }

Board: 3h 4s Tc Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.273% 52.27% 00.00% 1932 0.00 { JTo }
Hand 1: 47.727% 47.73% 00.00% 1764 0.00 { 99, 44-33 }

EDIT: I think that all makes sense, didnt realise it would be that lon

Oh, my head hurts.

Sikes, please tell me how you use maths practically at the table because i would suggest you don't have your laptop or calculator beside when you are playing live.

El Stuntman

sikes wrote:

Well completly ignoring any skill edge you may have

this was the funniest bit in Sike's post...

thanks for the maths and very useful, I would also pose the same question as RT though

LuckyLloyd

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