Final table of $50k guarenteed - tough spot

loosecannon

playing the weekly $50k guaranteed on BF

down to the final table and i've just picked up a small pot to move me into 5th with 9 to go, even though i'm in 5th all the stacks are remarkably similiar, everyone has between $35k and $90k, it's starting to get a bit crapshooty with the blinds at $3k/$6k and an ante of 200, so there's over 10k every time out there

Anyway i'm in middle position with $61k and UTG ($75k) insta pushes all in!!! wtf? the table has only just formed but been very tight up to this point so apart from that info i have no other read on the player

I have one of the following three hands, my question is what do i do with the following 3 hands and what would u expect UTG's hand/range to be?

1) QQ
2) AQs
3) 99

Bear in Mind the Payouts are as follows

1st - $15k
2nd - $10k
3rd - $6k
4th - $4k
5th - $3.25k
6th - $2.5k
7th - $1.75k
8th - $1.3k
9th - $850


I've got a bad feeling i made a made a major fcuk up in this hand and i still feel like a tool now, feedback appreciated :-)

Mr.Plough

he only has 12.5 bbs so his range should be fairly wide.

you'd need to do an ICM calc but im pretty sure i call with all 3.

BobSloane

I'd call with QQ and prob fold the other 2

Moneymaker

I'd insta call with 1 and fold 2 and 3 reluctantly.

Flushdraw

I'd call with QQ.

I'd fold AQs and 99. I'd expect his range to be AQ+ or 99-JJ himself so i'd expect my AQ to be behind everytime. If i was late position i may think about a call with 99 as i'd be eliminating the possibility of someone behind me waking up with a monster although i'd still fold most of the time.

grey_abbey

1. QQ i call (I dont think he's ever doing this with aa or kk)

2. AQ i fold (This looks a lot like small to middle pair, wouldn't want to race at this stage...better spots and all that)

3. 99 is closest but i probably fold

A lot of players like to make this move with 22-JJ, AK, AQ afraid of being outdrawn/outplayed on the flop. At this stage, think players dont want to make tough decisions when the flop comes ugly.

Id expect to see middle pair alot.

Mr.Plough

Flushdraw wrote:

I'd call with QQ.

I'd fold AQs and 99. I'd expect his range to be AQ+ or 99-JJ himself so i'd expect my AQ to be behind everytime. If i was late position i may think about a call with 99 as i'd be eliminating the possibility of someone behind me waking up with a monster although i'd still fold most of the time.

is AQ+,99+ not far too tight givin stacks and the dead money already in the pot?

Mr.Plough

grey_abbey wrote:

2. AQ i fold (This looks a lot like small to middle pair, wouldn't want to race at this stage...better spots and all that)

theres 10k in the middle already

Flushdraw

Mr.Plough wrote:

is AQ+,99+ not far too tight givin stacks and the dead money already in the pot?

Andrew is in 5th spot with 61k, UTG has 75k and CL has 90k. He might be short in relation to blinds but theres others in a far worse scenario than he is. I wouldnt expect him to be pushing utg with anything narrower than that. I personally wouldnt be pushing UTG with anything myself, but i'd expect AK or JJ to be the 2 most likely hands because they are probably the 2 hardest hands to play OOP

phantom_lord

i'd call with all three.

cardshark202

No reads on UTG? Looks like all three are clear calls.

loosecannon

interesting replies so far

i don't think anyone has analysed the rather large swing in money between the places, you're stepping up around $500 per place gained, i guess my real question is (which was hit on a little) is would you take a cointoss here for your tournament life? i think the majority of people's opinions put him on a mid pair (88-JJ) with a move like this, to be honest so did i - anyone able to put him on any other range?

The actual hand i had was the AQ

anyone able to do the pokerstove range thing to work out if it's a correct call with AQ, bearing in mind that i also have players behind

ty

strewelpeter

On betfair I'd have a look at the little map they have and if UTG is from anywhere near the arctic circle I'd call

Seriously though on Betfair this probably means only AA, KK or AKs and I don't see the need to get involved with anything less at this stage.
BTW what was username of UTG?

Blip

loosecannon wrote:

playing the weekly $50k guaranteed on BF

down to the final table and i've just picked up a small pot to move me into 5th with 9 to go, even though i'm in 5th all the stacks are remarkably similiar, everyone has between $35k and $90k, it's starting to get a bit crapshooty with the blinds at $3k/$6k and an ante of 200, so there's over 10k every time out there

Anyway i'm in middle position with $61k and UTG ($75k) insta pushes all in!!! wtf? the table has only just formed but been very tight up to this point so apart from that info i have no other read on the player

I have one of the following three hands, my question is what do i do with the following 3 hands and what would u expect UTG's hand/range to be?

1) QQ
2) AQs
3) 99

Bear in Mind the Payouts are as follows

1st - $15k
2nd - $10k
3rd - $6k
4th - $4k
5th - $3.25k
6th - $2.5k
7th - $1.75k
8th - $1.3k
9th - $850


I've got a bad feeling i made a made a major fcuk up in this hand and i still feel like a tool now, feedback appreciated :-)

Sound as though you've folded QQ, :eek: otherwise you'd know for sure.

This is tricky position, If this is the very first hand of the FT, villian might just be trying a donky play for the blinds then again he could have picked up a premium hand knowing theres a good chance that a shorty would call, but not wanting others in the pot too.

Anyway I'd call 1, and fold 2, 3.


EDIT : Just seen your reply

DemocAnarchis

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.387% 53.18% 00.20% 87426096 331848.00 { JJ-88 }
Hand 1: 46.613% 46.41% 00.20% 76291392 331848.00 { AQs }

Even with 10k in the pot, I dont think we're better than a coinflip, assuming late position isnt going to call with anything but a monster, in that case we're definately behind. Unless i messed up somewhere, which is not that unlikely :rolleyes:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.167% 24.25% 00.11% 82771621 378660.00 { JJ-88 }
Hand 1: 22.205% 22.01% 00.37% 75137493 1259286.00 { AQs }
Hand 2: 53.628% 53.69% 00.37% 183252908 1259286.00 { KK+, AKs }

sikes

why are you assigning him a range of JJ-88 only?

McWager

I dont think you ever see AA or KK here - AK and JJ are most likely - so it is a straight pokerstove calc including the middle pairs and AK, AQ

As regards the payout structure, it shouldnt affect your thinking right now(in terms of maximising expectation, if the money means a lot to you then thats another story) as you are not in comfortable chip position UNLESS you feel that it matters so much to others that you can easily bully them and therefore better not to take this marginal one

sikes

I think all three are a call. I would think he is pushing AT and at least 55 there. Also, because the payouts are pretty flat, I dont think we need to consider ICM. We win here our equity jump is pretty much in line with the jump in stack i would think.

gosplan

It's not a hand that he wants played out so I think we can rule out KK and AA.

It's either a poorly played AK(unlikely at this level) or a madium pair.

Call with QQ and fold all else.

99 is a really tough one as I'd say 77 and 88 are as likely as 1010 and JJ.

That's a big decision.

connie147

Like others, I think you'll see AK and JJ/10-10 here a lot. AQ is a fold for me here.

RoundTower

I call all of them and expect his range is all pairs, AJ, KQ, maybe other random stuff, maybe remove some of the big hands.

Ollieboy

1. instant call, I would expect to see AK or a smaller pair, like JJ/1010
2. If you put him on a pair, you should fold. Me its a easy fold, your only beating AJ here.
3. I like to be the first into a pot with 99 at this stage of a tourney, so if I had open the betting and got re-raise, I would be calling. But I think I would fold as I could be totally dominated, or racing at best. I wouldn't expect to see much less than 99 as a pair here.

cardshark202

Ollie, how can you say you're only beating AJ here? Thats silly. Most people will push with much worse than AJ here
And calling here with 99 is often much better than pushing first, especially if you never get called by worse which would be the case with you if you're folding 99 there.

Ollieboy

cardshark202 wrote:

Ollie, how can you say you're only beating AJ here? Thats silly. Most people will push with much worse than AJ here
And calling here with 99 is often much better than pushing first, especially if you never get called by worse which would be the case with you if you're folding 99 there.

I would be very surprised to see anybody push with less than Aq utg, not impossible, but surprised.. If he was in late position than it's possible. Also, he as 13bb and the blinds coming to him, why would he push without a premium hand. As I said, I would be surprised and it would be a horrible play

sumoward

Thats the kinda thing i do with JJ. did you fold QQ and he showed the jacks?

cardshark202

Actually a good player should be pushing quite a wide range here, blinds and antes are huge

mrflash

gosplan wrote:

It's not a hand that he wants played out so I think we can rule out KK and AA.

It's either a poorly played AK(unlikely at this level) or a madium pair.

Call with QQ and fold all else.

99 is a really tough one as I'd say 77 and 88 are as likely as 1010 and JJ.

That's a big decision.

So you wouldn't take a chance on a move like this with aa/kk in the very first hand at a final table. I know i would from UTG, its a totally wrong move and just the type of move that could get a call from a LAG.

BigCityBanker

cardshark202 wrote:

Actually a good player should be pushing quite a wide range here, blinds and antes are huge

from UTG a good player should be pushing a wide range here? are you sure about that?

mrflash

I would fold all three hands. As you pointed out its the very first hand, you have no information at all, and the prize money moves up drastically with every player that gets knocked out. Do you want to get all your chips in against a super tag which he could very well be. I dont get excited this early at an FT.

BigCityBanker

mrflash wrote:

So you wouldn't take a chance on a move like this with aa/kk in the very first hand at a final table. I know i would from UTG, its a totally wrong move and just the type of move that could get a call from a LAG.

what is your understanding of this term?

Andrew fwiw im only calling with one hand here and thats QQ.

mrflash

BigCityBanker wrote:

what is your understanding of this term?

Andrew fwiw im only calling with one hand here and thats QQ.

Sorry not LAG as much as aggressive enough to call an allin with a marginal hand like aq, jj, 1010.
What i was just trying to point out is that i will make this exact move at the start of a tourney or in the first hand at a new table if i get aa, kk. You get called more often in that situtation. Its a totally different scenario if you have been at the table for a while and have some information about a player. But i would fold all three in this situation as i have no reads and as such its not worth it.

Norwich Fan Rob

its 9 handed full ring, utg has an ok stack, pushing AJ or less would be optimistic to say the least, i hate AQ here as i think u see AK quite a lot.

obv insta call with QQ.

imo 3 most likely hands for this move are AK JJ and TT

these things are all about position at this stage, and picking on weak blinds etc, having played for several hours to get this far, and with notable jumps , not many people jam Ax here at this stage from utg.

mr flash, folding QQ here is insane.

reggie, jamming with a wide range here from utg is not a good idea, yes, u need to nick blinds at this stage, but u will get much better chances in the next lap to do this than having to jam here without AQ+ from utg.

mrflash

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

its 9 handed full ring, utg has an ok stack, pushing AJ or less would be optimistic to say the least, i hate AQ here as i think u see AK quite a lot.

obv insta call with QQ.

imo 3 most likely hands for this move are AK JJ and TT

these things are all about position at this stage, and picking on weak blinds etc, having played for several hours to get this far, and with notable jumps , not many people jam Ax here at this stage from utg.

mr flash, folding QQ here is almost as bad as reggies reply.

I agree with you in the most part, but i do see this done with aa, kk and ak quite a lot. So i dont see qq as an insta call and especially with no information on the player. Remember you are putting your tourney on the line here, and i don't like that idea with qq this late. Your opponent has not made it this far by shoving with bad hands, well at least 99% of the time.

BigCityBanker

mrflash wrote:

So i dont see qq as an insta call and especially with no information on the player.

assuming that you are hear for the same reason as me (i.e. to learn about poker and improve your game) then take one thing from this thread and that is to never ever fold QQ in this spot. This is a double fist pump snap call with QQ. You do not require any info in this spot in order to snap call with QQ.

MrPillowTalk

Easy call with QQ and 99, Im folding AQ all day though.

mrflash

BigCityBanker wrote:

assuming that you are hear for the same reason as me (i.e. to learn about poker and improve your game) then take one thing from this thread and that is to never ever fold QQ in this spot. This is a double fist pump snap call with QQ. You do not require any info in this spot in order to snap call with QQ.

Well i am here for the same reason, but i have seen this situation many times. I have been beaten with qq to an allin at least four times in similar situations. I can only ever remember calling an allin once with qq and winning and i was actually the bigger stack on that occasion and busted kk. I am not trying to annoy everyone, i am just telling it as i see it. experience tells me to fold here.

The edit is this bit, the last paragraph with the addition of in late stages or tourneys, from three tables or so downwards.

MrPillowTalk

mrflash wrote:

a distinct lack of experience tells me to fold here.

FYP

mrflash

MrPillowTalk wrote:

FYP

Whatever? i replied to your post, and agreed with you for the main part but told you how i differ, and then you come back and just insult me by altering my post. And fyi i have 300,000 hands online this year. Very Childish Sir.

MrPillowTalk

mrflash wrote:

Whatever? i replied to your post, and agreed with you for the main part but told you how i differ, and then you come back and just insult me by altering my post. And fyi i have 300,000 hands online this year. Very Childish Sir.

Lighten up Flash, your wrong on this one its not the end of the world.

mrflash

MrPillowTalk wrote:

Lighten up Flash, your wrong on this one its not the end of the world.

Whether i am wrong or not, i am just saying it how i see it from my experiences and gut instinct. I don't go to a calculator for every decision, and sometimes i am wrong and sometimes i am right. But from my experiences, i will fold here every time, as i have been wrong in the past to call.

MrPillowTalk

mrflash wrote:

Whether i am wrong or not, i am just saying it how i see it from my experiences and gut instinct. I don't go to a calculator for every decision, and sometimes i am wrong and sometimes i am right. But from my experiences, i will fold here every time, as i have been wrong in the past to call.

I guess your right, I dont play AA anymore because when I called all in against 99 I lost.

BigCityBanker

MrPillowTalk wrote:

I guess your right, I dont play AA anymore because when I called all in against 99 I lost.

well at least you have learned from your experience. thats the important thing.

Captain Tom

you tell em' flash.

Mr.PT, why is it an easy call with 99 yet an easy fold with AQ? is it just that you think his range is weighted heavily towards pairs/AK and not AJo/AJs/ATs type hands?

MrPillowTalk

Captain Tom wrote:

you tell em' flash.

Mr.PT, why is it an easy call with 99 yet an easy fold with AQ? is it just that you think his range is weighted heavily towards pairs/AK and not AJo/AJs/ATs type hands?

Pretty much, I think we can usually discount AA/KK from his range and allthough open pushing AT KQ A9 is probably ok I dont think most players will do it here. Its close but intuitively I would expect to be racing with AQ lots and dominated a fair bit as well, I dont hate calling AQ but personally Id wait for a better spot.

mrflash

MrPillowTalk wrote:

Pretty much, I think we can usually discount AA/KK from his range and allthough open pushing AT KQ A9 is probably ok I dont think most players will do it here. Its close but intuitively I would expect to be racing with AQ lots and dominated a fair bit as well, I dont hate calling AQ but personally Id wait for a better spot.

you are not sure but you think you can usually discount aa/kk.

you have no information on the player.
the player has a bigger stack than you.

why can you usually discout aa/kk

MrPillowTalk

mrflash wrote:

you are not sure but you think you can usually discount aa/kk.

you have no information on the player.
the player has a bigger stack than you.

why can you usually discout aa/kk

Its less likely that utg will jam AA/KK in that spot

mrflash

MrPillowTalk wrote:

Its less likely that utg will jam AA/KK in that spot

And because its considered unlikely, its the right move. Or am i wrong in saying that as well?

MrPillowTalk

mrflash wrote:

And because its considered unlikely, its the right move. Or am i wrong in saying that as well?

Open pushing would be perfectly ok, personally I would open a normal raise and hope someone tries a steal, when you open push you make the others need to have a hand to play you cut out any chance of someone getting it in with something marginal. Wheither its ok or not isnt the point though, most players wont open jam utg there.

Requiem4adream

The "donk overbet open-push utg" with strong hands has become popular enough to be fair. Mainly for every reason given in this thread - 90% of players discount AA/KK immediately.

The key thing is to work out whether he's an actual donk or a good player, with so little table time with the guy, i guess snapfold the AQ and 99. Do it quickly it's easier that way! Fold, change song on your i-pod, change channel on tv, do whatever but do it quick, you'll have forgotten the "i wonder what he had" in like 17 seconds

ianmc38

I'd snap call QQ and fold the other 2.

LuckyLloyd

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