The Generation Game.

Mayo Exile

David McWilliams new documentary, The Generation Game, started on RTE1 last night. What did people think of it, especially with regards to property prices. It was definitely spooky viewing, what with Northern Rock, the ISEQ dropping yesterday (bank stocks battered), possible U.S. recession, and the sub prime thing over there too.

Main themes: we are all banjaxed as our industry is heading to the low cost regions of the world (China etc) and our economy must adapt to this. Also we are in debt (mortgages, credit cards etc) up to our eyeballs, and this now has to be faced up to.

I would guess myself property prices are dropping in Dundalk, up to 10% maybe, looking at estate agent websites around here. Some houses, that were say 250,000, or 260,000 are now around 230,000. Even at that, some are still over-valued and would need to drop another 10% before first time buyers (like myself) are interested.

patrickolee

Sensationalist clap-trap, but as with with all sensational clap-trap, has an element of truth and sells well! Gobble gobble.

http://www.ongoing-tales.com/SERIALS/oldtime/FAIRYTALES/chicklicken.html

Chevy RV

patrickolee wrote:

Sensationalist clap-trap, but as with with all sensational clap-trap, has an element of truth and sells well! Gobble gobble.

Frankly, I am amazed with this comment. How do you explain the Northern Rock run, global stock markets in tumoil causing rapid decline in everyboy's wealth ( shares & pensions etc ) , interest rates u - turns being forced the US government probably today , rising inflation & loss of our manufacturing jobs to lower cost economies, operation freeflow in our ports and airports and I could continue. Do you not see anything wrong at the moment ?

Maybe you should be at the FF think in to see Bertie elect himeself as the chairman of the ethics commitee instead.

Regards,

Chevy RV

gurramok

patrickolee wrote:

Sensationalist clap-trap, but as with with all sensational clap-trap, has an element of truth and sells well! Gobble gobble.

http://www.ongoing-tales.com/SERIALS/oldtime/FAIRYTALES/chicklicken.html

Contradictory there...which is it, truth or clap-trap?

bugler

I thought it was entertaining enough, and even if its worst case scenario never comes to pass it should at least give people a mild shake to wake them up a bit.

I just wish he'd drop the lowest common denominator approach to illustrating some of his points. Did we really need to see those women dancing to understand how Ireland is not as attractive as some other countries anymore? It was cringe-inducing.

patrickolee

gurramok wrote:

Contradictory there...which is it, truth or clap-trap?

Think possibly you missed the "has an element of" prefix?

Anyway, it was an entertaining program. But then sometimes you can read the Sun newspaper and find some entertaining articles. You wouldn't want to believe them though.

The "Northern Rock" debacle is a good example of when people irrationally panic. People with savings in Northern Rock are very very safe. It's been backed by the British state!

SkepticOne

Patrick, I think what people are trying to find out is what bits you found true and what bits you found wide of the mark. What bits don't you believe and why? Obviously it was entertaining and aimed at a prime time audience. Nobody who saw the programme needs to be told this.

Chevy RV

I do not agree that these people are necessarily behaving irrationally. Greed at getting back their average €100K deposit safely and efficiently is driving them to Harcourt Street.The bank if England was only securing up to £35k until yesterday when fear forced the chancellor to step to avoid further runs and crises of confidence in the banking system.More importantly, they never said anything at all about propping over ailing overseas subsidiaries though.

Our government/ minister for finance is trying to get clarification on exactly this point today. Is it fair to say that you would not be in the brown trousers phase if you had your entire life savings in there. It is back to the simple traits of fear & greed driving the market.

patrickolee

Ok, parts that I think are true include, we (collectively as a country) are in too much debt and have spent too much on houses that may not be worth quite as much as we think. But I think the impression one would get from the program that this overestimation was of a giant scale. Its not. This is a country doing very well and looking like it will continue to do so, as long as people don't start (continue?) panicking. We are (in part) the back office to Londons front!

Another part of the program which I found interesting, as I watched it with my very good Chinese friend, was that China was going to take over the world and that they were a major threat to us. While this may be partly true in pure low cost manufacturing, the impression given was that all the high tech companies would move lock stock to China. This simply is not going to happen. China has quite a few problems of its own as anyone who has visited there can tell. Another hint to this fact might be if you asked any Chinese person living here, why they want to stay here, rather than return to their motherland. A particular example that the program with regard to companies pulling out, was Intel. Any idea how much money Intel has already invested in the fab plants in Ireland? To simply abandon them would be unthinkable, yet this was the impression given by one of the Muppets wheeled out by Mr McWilliams was that this was imminent! I think he got someone else to say this in the program as he realises, it's a gross exaggeration. Intel may (emphasis on may) stop investing heavily in their plants here, but they won't be pulling out anytime soon (next 10 years). So on this fact, it's not that it is completely untrue, rather that its likely imminence was grossly exaggerated.

A part of the program which annoyed me, rather than I found untrue, was the drunk dancing woman analogy. I found that, while funny, quite offensive.

When watching or reading commentaries such as these, you have to ask yourself, why is this person saying these things. What is their motive/perspective. Then you can decide how much credence to lend them. Mr McWilliams is in this to publicise himself and his book. He wants to sell as many copies as possible. No problem with that.

In contrast, while you might not believe (as I don't) what the Taoiseach says in the tribunal, he is a far more reliable source on the economy and our future prospects than someone who if flogging a book!

I've said enough now, its a very long post, apologies..

P.S. I am not a fine fail supporter, estate agent, landlord, tenant, solicitor, banker or anyone with a vested interest, other than enjoying living in Ireland and wanting Ireland Inc to continue to prosper.

Chevy RV

In contrast, while you might not believe (as I don't) what the Taoiseach says in the tribunal, he is a far more reliable source on the economy and our future prospects than someone who if flogging a book!


Is he ? Is this not a bit of a contradiction .................. you say you don't believe a taoiseach who can't even reconcile his own bank account despite being a minister for finance for a number of years yet you would not trust an economist selling a new book.

PS I thought the drunken old tart was funny ... it tends to bring the obscure economic theories done in college to the layman in the street.:D

SkepticOne

patrickolee wrote:

, yet this was the impression given by one of the Muppets wheeled out by Mr McWilliams was that this was imminent!

Was this the muppet who had lost his job in Motorola when they pulled out?

drumm23

"Fingers in the ears" is the usual response to these warnings until it is too late.
McWilliams is spot on and has been spot on.
If you don't think Intel are finished investing in Ireland you're crazy, there is no doubt whatsoever that a new FAB will never be built in this country.
BECAUSE. WE. ARE. ENTIRELY. UNCOMPETITIVE. BECAUSE. THE. BOOM. WAS. MISMANAGED.

Why do so many Irish people delude themselves by believing the laws of economics don't affect us...?

patrickolee

SkepticOne wrote:

Was this the muppet who had lost his job in Motorola when they pulled out?

Yes

Actually there's a similar thread going on in ah...

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055150956

SkepticOne

patrickolee wrote:

Yes

Actually there's a similar thread going on in ah...

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055150956

Clearly touched a nerve there! I tend to agree with the "dumbing down" sentiment, but, as someone pointed out on that thread, this is a country that voted for Bertie three times in a row.

Victor

patrickolee wrote:

The "Northern Rock" debacle is a good example of when people irrationally panic.

And it is just as possible for them to behave like this in property, although it usually acts the other way around.

dragonkin

patrickolee wrote:

Ok, parts that I think are true include, we (collectively as a country) are in too much debt and have spent too much on houses that may not be worth quite as much as we think. But I think the impression one would get from the program that this overestimation was of a giant scale. Its not. This is a country doing very well and looking like it will continue to do so, as long as people don't start (continue?) panicking. We are (in part) the back office to Londons front!

How do you know the over estimation wasn't on a massive scale how do you back this up? Irish people are the most indebted in the euro zone when debt is calculated as a ratio of Gross National Product (GNP), according to the central bank. History is littered with property booms and their subsequent seemingly inevitable bust.

Another part of the program which I found interesting, as I watched it with my very good Chinese friend, was that China was going to take over the world and that they were a major threat to us. While this may be partly true in pure low cost manufacturing, the impression given was that all the high tech companies would move lock stock to China. This simply is not going to happen.

China produce 200,000 engineers a year according to their ministry of education, all willing to work at a fraction of our wages. We on the other hand have seen decling numbers over the last few years. That is not to mention India, Korea, Eastern Europe etc. These people do not need to pay for overpriced services or large morgages.

China has quite a few problems of its own as anyone who has visited there can tell. Another hint to this fact might be if you asked any Chinese person living here, why they want to stay here, rather than return to their motherland. A particular example that the program with regard to companies pulling out, was Intel. Any idea how much money Intel has already invested in the fab plants in Ireland? To simply abandon them would be unthinkable, yet this was the impression given by one of the Muppets wheeled out by Mr McWilliams was that this was imminent! I think he got someone else to say this in the program as he realises, it's a gross exaggeration. Intel may (emphasis on may) stop investing heavily in their plants here, but they won't be pulling out anytime soon (next 10 years). So on this fact, it's not that it is completely untrue, rather that its likely imminence was grossly exaggerated.

People have many reasons for staying where they are why do some Irish people prefer living in America or Australia?
Intel stopped investing in their plants here a couple of years ago and is in for a long steady decline unless a new fab is built which looks unlikely, the fab is at the end of its oprational cycle and the newer fabs in Israel and China will start taking over the production of Intel's newer chips. Intel Ireland are going to have a hard time trying to sell chips with much lower transistor densitites than the state of the art in large numbers in the years ahead. Analog Devices just closed one of their production lines. Also the number of engineers (particularily electronic and computer) graduating is not what it once was.

A part of the program which annoyed me, rather than I found untrue, was the drunk dancing woman analogy. I found that, while funny, quite offensive.

When watching or reading commentaries such as these, you have to ask yourself, why is this person saying these things. What is their motive/perspective. Then you can decide how much credence to lend them. Mr McWilliams is in this to publicise himself and his book. He wants to sell as many copies as possible. No problem with that.

In contrast, while you might not believe (as I don't) what the Taoiseach says in the tribunal, he is a far more reliable source on the economy and our future prospects than someone who if flogging a book!

Although McWilliams might be flogging a book he is a trained economist unlike Bertie who definitly has an interest in presenting the econonmy FF has developed over the last 20 years in a positive light.

Ireland does have a good future long term if we act properly but we need to take our heads out of the sand and do something about serious problems that are at the core of our economy.

Chevy RV

Here,here......just like Eddie O'Sullivan ,we need to start making those injury time changes ( to better manage our economic success ) before the game is finally over.:D

yankinlk

patrickolee wrote:

When watching or reading commentaries such as these, you have to ask yourself, why is this person saying these things. What is their motive/perspective. Then you can decide how much credence to lend them. Mr McWilliams is in this to publicize himself and his book. He wants to sell as many copies as possible.

Totally agree. I imagine Mr McWilliams will profit from the gloom and doom trade now and eventually go on to give everyone advice on what foreign property to buy and eventually sell us shares in his property syndicate. But he will not run for government! A man has to have his principals after all!

SkepticOne

yankinlk wrote:

Totally agree. I imagine Mr McWilliams will profit from the gloom and doom trade now and eventually go on to give everyone advice on what foreign property to buy and eventually sell us shares in his property syndicate. But he will not run for government! A man has to have his principals after all!

I am no fan of ginger haired people generally, but to be fair to McWilliams, he did freely warn people for many years that there would be consequences to our profligacy, but few listened. Can't really blame him for profiting from it now that we realise he was spot on in many ways. I'm not sure Eddie Hobbs style property funds will be what he does though.

DublinDilbert

SkepticOne wrote:

I am no fan of ginger haired people generally, but to be fair to McWilliams, he did freely warn people for many years that there would be consequences to our profligacy, but few listened. Can't really blame him for profiting from it now that we realise he was spot on in many ways. I'm not sure Eddie Hobbs style property funds will be what he does though.

I'm not totally gone on him either, but i do agree with a good bit of what he says....

We have lots of bright people in Ireland, who are very well qualified but we are seriously lacking in the innovation area... there are irish people running R & D companies all over the world developing all sorts of technologies...

In the last 10 years in Ireland there has been very little investment from the private sector in R&D, if anyone had €1M to invest, the were throwing it at property project which during the boom was going to almost guarantee a good return...

Most of the universities are doing their part, producing campus companies with good technologies.. but the private sector seems very reluctant to invest and multinationals are coming in and cherry picking these technologies and making all the money...

Boggle

While this may be partly true in pure low cost manufacturing, the impression given was that all the high tech companies would move lock stock to China.

Like Dell? A friend worked in SCI (fermoy) who used to make Dell motherboards to the abslute highest standards of quality. They lost the contract however as (and these are his words so take them as you wish) the CHinese crowd manufacturing the connectors offered to manufacture the PCB's for free! (This may have been an exageration but he was 100% serious at the time so I doubt it)
Whats to stop other companies seeking the same? (Except that some people are finally copping on an boycotting China as their quality is rubbish across the board).

I think its hilarious, the same people who bitch about the EVIL Chinese steeling all their jobs are the ones who will save the extra pound and buy the Chinese rubbish instead of the European or Irish equivalent...

In contrast, while you might not believe (as I don't) what the Taoiseach says in the tribunal, he is a far more reliable source on the economy and our future prospects than someone who if flogging a book!

The man who single handedly completely mismanaged the economy for the past 10 years, preventing what was a fantastic opportunity to build sustainable indigenous manufacturing and design enterprises is MORE RELIABLE?????
Bertie's running the country is a bit like the idiot investor who thinks he's a property expert because he made money on houses... a rising tide and all that, eh?? Pound to a penny, the minute things look tough Bertie will be out the gap to leave others clean up his mess...

Glib

Hi

I'm living outside of Ireland at the moment but REALLY want to see the "Generation Game". RTE (meanies) won't let me watch it for copyright reasons. Does anyone know if there's anywhere else I can pick it up? Or an Irish proxy?

Cheers.

jlang

You could always go for the text version... http://www.amazon.co.uk/Generation-Game-David-McWilliams/dp/0717142248

karen3212

it's on again, haven't learnt a thing yet, but it hasn't ended yet

tHE vAGGABOND

Didn't bother my arse watching it, he is talking rubbish in the name of selling books and making money for himself. Uruguay *sigh*

I played Team Fortress 2 instead

the_syco

patrickolee wrote:

A particular example that the program with regard to companies pulling out, was Intel. Any idea how much money Intel has already invested in the fab plants in Ireland? To simply abandon them would be unthinkable, yet this was the impression given by one of the Muppets wheeled out by Mr McWilliams was that this was imminent!

By the time the Fab is built, it's already out of date. One of the Fabs won't be updated, as it costs less to build a new one, than it is to redo an old one. At the moment, all sub-contractors are employing the minimum amount of people, and now they're letting off 200 of their own people. Sure, 200 out of 5000 is not much, but when they have already shed as many sub-contractors as possible, it is a warning sign.

As for the China problem, we can never hope to compete with their wages.

ian_m

Heres how tonights show is described on the RTÉ website. (Monday 1st October)

"David McWilliams argues that Ireland must look to descendants of its emigrants to re-invent itself, and speaks to Irish-American TV presenter Conan O'Brien"

What on earth would Conan O'Brien know about the Irish state of affairs? This proves to me that this so called factual program is not fact, purely entertainment.

gurramok

ian_m wrote:

Heres how tonights show is described on the RTÉ website. (Monday 1st October)

"David McWilliams argues that Ireland must look to descendants of its emigrants to re-invent itself, and speaks to Irish-American TV presenter Conan O'Brien"

What on earth would Conan O'Brien know about the Irish state of affairs? This proves to me that this so called factual program is not fact, purely entertainment.

Well, i think David is right on a point. Nearly every other country on the globe entices connections with its diaspora to help their economy, just look at any first/second/third world economy there is, they have input from their diaspora to repatriate money to their home countries.
Heck, look at what our immigrants are doing here, they are sending money home to help their own economies, it makes sense that he highlights this point.
Also its no coincidence that our economy took off in the 90's due to the funding of the Irish American connection which helped matters.

Its being no coincidence also that that many of our Uni's have had tens of millions of dollars pumped into them through our generous disapora.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_American_Ireland_Fund
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ireland_Funds
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Fund_for_Ireland

...and lastly where did the hundreds of millions of dollars in funding come from for vital projects?...They came from our disapora in the following example

http://atlanticphilanthropies.org/grantees/statistics/historical_statistics
http://archives.tcm.ie/irishexaminer/2003/07/31/story27961195.asp

ian_m

and according to David our economy is in dire straits...
if thats where it all began, with the US, if we really are in a bad way what will they do for us now?

gurramok

ian_m wrote:

and according to David our economy is in dire straits...
if thats where it all began, with the US, if we really are in a bad way what will they do for us now?

The disapora have brains and money, if opportunities exist here, what harm is it bringing some of them here?

Remember, our economy is not going back to 80's style, its going to readjust as we have too many construction related jobs\investment, the american economy ain't goin 80's style Irish either, its readjusting due to bad credit policies.

Most of the diaspora who long to be here would create/find jobs and invest in a non-construction discipline if they were allowed in, again its a no-brainer to refuse them in.
No other country has such a stupid strict policy regarding accepting their disapora as stated in the programme

BendiBus

I thought tonights programme was very interesting. It would seem like a good idea to be more welcoming to the diaspora. It's unlikely there'd be a huge inward rush from the US/Aus/Argentina (most nth generation Irish in Britain are happy there). So nothing to lose and lots to gain. And in some ways it's just the right thing to do anyway.

And that Argentinian guy that was refused a passport looked more Irish than most people born here

patrickolee

Yes, tonights show was very good. In stark contrast to the first program. Much more positive and not the usual garbage. I do hope there are people in charge listening. Although I can see one reason our gubberment might hesitate. Free third level education. They will have to introduce a real fee structure for education or all the American (in particular, but not only) diaspora will flood in :-) and then flood out again once graduated. And who can blame them with their college fees leaving them with debts of 10s of thousands on graduation. Maybe we could have a more compeditive college structure, like those of the UK, with college's competing for students and being funded by them. We would need far more colleges of course.

dochasach

patrickolee wrote:

Yes, tonights show was very good. In stark contrast to the first program. Much more positive and not the usual garbage. I do hope there are people in charge listening. Although I can see one reason our gubberment might hesitate. Free third level education. They will have to introduce a real fee structure for education or all the American (in particular, but not only) diaspora will flood in :-) and then flood out again once graduated. And who can blame them with their college fees leaving them with debts of 10s of thousands on graduation. Maybe we could have a more compeditive college structure, like those of the UK, with college's competing for students and being funded by them. We would need far more colleges of course.

I actually thought the first show was harsh but had more honest content and less fluff. I did get a laugh out of his choice of Argentina and Uruguay as examples of diaspora economies that have gone wrong rather than Finland, Germany and the U.K. If your publisher (or tax funded RTE?) gave you a "research" travel budget, where would you go?

The last show was less pessimistic but also less realistic. The 'answers' highlighted only the most obvious strategies that Ireland successfully followed for at least a decade before being distracted with property madness. Follow the management chain of many multinationals in Ireland and you'll probably find Irish diaspora influenced the insourcing decision.

The strategy of giving visas to Irish diaspora won't fix the problem. Assuming that Irish-American or Irish-Argentinian whose family emigrated 100 years ago is better able to fix Irish economy than someone who was born here but has Chinese, American or Argentinian roots (therefore no longer has a citizenship birthright) is pure racism.

I was disappointed and surprised McWilliams didn't spend more time clarifying the new need for mobility. 10-150 years ago Irish followed the wealth and money wherever it was. Labor was more mobile than jobs. Now money, goods and jobs freely flow around the world but labor is stuck. Immigration control is part of the reason why labor doesn't flow as fast as jobs into and out of an economy, but home ownership is also an anchor which is just as effective at preventing labor from finding work elsewhere. What happens if the construction industry shuts down here? (We've already seen approximately 50% drop in new homes planned) Most Polish and other immigrant workers who rent here will quickly move to where the jobs are, but many Irish dependent on the domestic construction industry also have money locked up in their Irish home. Houses aren't selling very easily recently. This may be the first time in Irish history that the average punter doesn't have the option of emigrating to solve an economic problem caused by a government that was asleep at the wheel.