Interesting ethical conundrum

Snickers Man

In the finest tradition of "you are the referee" here's something that just might transpire.

Let's say that Ireland lose to France but gain a bonus point while France do not.
Then let's say that all of the games involving Ireland, France or Argentina and the two lesser teams result in bonus point wins for the big guys.

That would mean that at the start of the Irl Arg match, the final game of the pool:
France has 15 points
Argentina has 14 points
Ireland has 11 points

Nothing too outlandish so far?

Now let's say that in terms of points difference France has blown the two minnows out of the water and has a huge points difference lead but at the start of the game, Argentina's points difference is only 3 better than Ireland.

With the game in injury time, Ireland has scored three tries and is leading Argentina by a point when it is awarded a penalty close to Argentina's line but out near the touchline.

The permutations are as follows.

1) Ireland could take the kick and miss. each side has 15 points. Points difference separates the team and so France and Argentina go through.


2) Ireland could take the kick and score. Again, each side finishes on 15 points but France and Ireland would go through on points difference, the penalty goal having helped Ireland to overtake Argentina.


3) Ireland could go for the try. If they score the try but fail with the conversion, then both Ireland and Argentina would go through. Ireland, with the bonus point, would be outright winners with 16 points. Argentina with their losing bonus point have 15 points as do France. France have a superior points difference, but the first separator when teames are equal on points is the result of any match between the two teams.

Therefore, having beaten France, Argentina would go through.

Of course, if the conversion was successful, Ireland and France would go through because Argentina would not get a losing bonus point.

Could you imagine the chin stroking that would attend that decision? On both the attackers' and defenders' parts?

Could happen!!

BigCon

I would imagine the penalty kick for 3 points would be the obvious choice. Ireland to top the group and let the Argies and France worry about the permutations...

Snickers Man

But in that scenario, Ireland wouldn't top the group. They would be second to france on points difference with each team having 15 points. They would only get the bonus point if they went for their fourth try and got it.

the question is, with time running out, would the Argentinians let them score the try in the corner and hope the Irish do the decent thing by missing the difficult conversion, no more difficult than the penalty, rather than defend like mad and run the risk of the IRish deciding to take a drop goal after a few phases which would put them (Argentina) out?

ollyk1

I'd say we'd go for the try. Best way to have a crack at a semi-final rather than face the ABs in a quarter final.

I'd say the argies would defend like mad regardless and if we got a chance to kick a conversion (and thereby knock the Argies out) I'm sure ROG would delight in giving Felipe a boot out of the competition!

EdgarAllenPoo

I think I need to lie down after reading that. You have way too much time on your hands.

webbie

I think if the penalty is one you think ROG has better than 50% chance of getting then you go for goal, better to be in QFinals even if it is against NZ than out of competition.

However what about this scenario, again everyone gets max 10 points against Namibia and Georgia. Ireland loose to France but get loosing bonus point. Before game table is like this:

France 15
Argentina 14
Ireland 11

Last minute of Ire v Arg game Ireland lead by 5, and have already scored 4 tries to get bonus point (Argentina have only scored 3 trys). Ref awards penalty to Ireland in front of posts and informs them this is the last play of the game. So Ireland has two options:

1 Kick ball out of play, Ireland win group on 16 points, Argentina get loosing bonus point and finish 2nd on 15 points since they beat France.
2. Kick pen, Ireland win group on 16 points, Argentina get no bonus point so France finish 2nd.
3. Try to kick penalty and miss, with risk that Argentina collect ball run down other end and score try, knocking Ireland out.

So here Ireland can basically decide who goes through in 2nd, so do they say well lets knock France out as one of the pre-tournament favorites or do they say lets have France go through as they have better chance of knocking NZ out in QFinal than Argentina do?

If they do go for penalty, make sure it is kicked hard enough to go out of play (not like Contepomi in last minute of Arg v Fra), but what if it hits the post !!!!!

webbie

Of course what's probably going to happen is that Ireland fail to get bonus against Georgia loose to France and get no bonus here either and go into final game with standings like this:

France 15
Argentina 14
Ireland 9

So Ireland have to beat Argentina, score 4 tries and stop them getting a loosing bonus point. So basically have to repeat one of Munster's miracle matches against Gloucester or Sale.

Snickers Man

GDM wrote:

I think I need to lie down after reading that. You have way too much time on your hands.

it's just maths. In fact, it's not even maths. It's arithmetic.

EdgarAllenPoo

Maths was never my strong point. Here's a thought, I wouldn't if Ireland didn't win the whole thing if they were the ones who manage to kick New Zealand out in the semis. That would be a nice consolation prize if they don't go all the way.

smashey

To hell with ethics. As professionals, I would expect them to do what suits them best. Look after no 1.

zAbbo

We'd run it

EdgarAllenPoo

Ethics only get in the way of success. I think I'll have that as my motto when I finish college.

Not to mention the old NZ favourite - cheating is only cheating if you get caught.

mikedragon32

Irrespective of permutations, I think you should always set out to beat the team you're playing.

If you're thinking about possible outcomes based on possible results, you're not thinking about the win.

Look what happened in Rome when Ireland got to thinking about an extra try against the Italians in injury time...

Junior

Actually on another slight aside, does anyone think the balls they are using for the World Cup are proving a handful for the kickers, Dr Phil seemed to be wanting to get the ball changed in the Arg V Fra game and a lot of other good kickers haven't been great so far ?

wingnut

Continuing that aside, did anyone find out what contemponi's problem with the ball was. He was clearly unhappy before even kicking it.

mikedragon32

Surely he trained with that ball before the tournament. They were available to every other union for training...

Anyway, back to the topic

tosh_thedude

webbie wrote:

I think if the penalty is one you think ROG has better than 50% chance of getting then you go for goal, better to be in QFinals even if it is against NZ than out of competition.

However what about this scenario, again everyone gets max 10 points against Namibia and Georgia. Ireland loose to France but get loosing bonus point. Before game table is like this:

France 15
Argentina 14
Ireland 11

Last minute of Ire v Arg game Ireland lead by 5, and have already scored 4 tries to get bonus point (Argentina have only scored 3 trys). Ref awards penalty to Ireland in front of posts and informs them this is the last play of the game. So Ireland has two options:

1 Kick ball out of play, Ireland win group on 16 points, Argentina get loosing bonus point and finish 2nd on 15 points since they beat France.
2. Kick pen, Ireland win group on 16 points, Argentina get no bonus point so France finish 2nd.
3. Try to kick penalty and miss, with risk that Argentina collect ball run down other end and score try, knocking Ireland out.

So here Ireland can basically decide who goes through in 2nd, so do they say well lets knock France out as one of the pre-tournament favorites or do they say lets have France go through as they have better chance of knocking NZ out in QFinal than Argentina do?

If they do go for penalty, make sure it is kicked hard enough to go out of play (not like Contepomi in last minute of Arg v Fra), but what if it hits the post !!!!!

I honestly dont think any of these will ever happy.... but if they did, I doubt any of the Irish lads would have the mental power to deduce such an outcome of points in there heads. Lets face it! We need to win our games! After that, who cares! We'll be beatin hands down in the last 8 regardless of who we meet.

Eoin

mikedragon32 wrote:

Surely he trained with that ball before the tournament. They were available to every other union for training...

I think it was the particular ball in question, not the make - it seems to be a standard Gilbert ball, not the horrible adidas one, or the one that the Italians use(d).

tosh_thedude wrote:

I honestly dont think any of these will ever happy.... but if they did, I doubt any of the Irish lads would have the mental power to deduce such an outcome of points in there heads.

Isn't it the very last game? So Ireland will know exactly what the situation is going into the game (something that may have helped in the Six Nations). If that's the case, then it would be much easier to know what the outcome is if we win.

Magic Pips

webbie wrote:

Of course what's probably going to happen is that Ireland fail to get bonus against Georgia loose to France and get no bonus here either and go into final game with standings like this:

France 15
Argentina 14
Ireland 9

So Ireland have to beat Argentina, score 4 tries and stop them getting a loosing bonus point. So basically have to repeat one of Munster's miracle matches against Gloucester or Sale.

i bet this is one time you feel sh1t to be right?

Imhof Tank

This is my first post, so forgive me but..............leaving aside the failure to gain the bonus point against Georgia.........if 3 (as opposed the 2) teams finish tied, then the first seperator of match results between the tying teams cannot apply because it doesnt seperate a group of 3 who have each won one and lost one of the 3 matches in the "mini group".

Thus the second seperator (points difference in the entire group) applies and therefore if all 3 teams were level on 15 points the result would be

France 1st (points difference ++++++ )

The only issue between Ireland and Argentina would be who would qualify as runners up. From Ireland's perspective this means superior points difference or denying the Argies the losing bonus point (which would keep them down on 14 points anyway).

The point is that in a 3 way tie neither Ireland nor Argentina can finish ahead of France so neither can do the other a favour and there's no conundrum.

(I cant see a scenario where Ireland and Argentina can both exceed 15 points, so basically if France get to 15 with a decent points difference they are through).

webbie

Imhof Tank wrote:

(I cant see a scenario where Ireland and Argentina can both exceed 15 points, so basically if France get to 15 with a decent points difference they are through).

There is a very unlikely scenario where this could happen as follows:

France beat Ireland but Ireland score 4 tries and loose by less than 7 (France only get 3 or less tries) so Ireland get 2 bonus points.

Ireland beat Argentina with both teams getting 4 tries so both get bonus point here as well. In that case group finishes:

Ireland 16
Argentina 15
France 15

Argentina finish above France since they beat them.

(Argentina could also get 2 bonus points against Ireland if they score 4 tries and loose by less than 7, in which case they would also get to 16 but Ireland would still be top since they beat Argentina).

Imhof Tank

Well fair enough, but apart from in the extremely unlikly event of France winning without a bonus point and Ireland getting 2 bonus points, then France are effectively through with their 15 points and there wont be any conundrum for Ireland or Argentina because they both cant go through.

On the other hand if we got that unlikly result against France, then you have demonstrated how Ireland and Argentina can ensure that we both progress without risking injuries, expending energy etc in much the same way as West Germany and Austria conspired to eliminate Algeria from the 1982 World Cup.

Pinetree Boy

All of this goes to show how ridiculous it is to have three of the top six ranking teams in the same pool. What will happen to this tournament if France are knocked out in the pool stage?

premierstone

webbie wrote:

There is a very unlikely scenario where this could happen as follows:

France beat Ireland but Ireland score 4 tries and loose by less than 7 (France only get 3 or less tries) so Ireland get 2 bonus points.

Ireland beat Argentina with both teams getting 4 tries so both get bonus point here as well. In that case group finishes:

Ireland 16
Argentina 15
France 15

Argentina finish above France since they beat them.

(Argentina could also get 2 bonus points against Ireland if they score 4 tries and loose by less than 7, in which case they would also get to 16 but Ireland would still be top since they beat Argentina).

You can only get one bonus point from a match im afraid;)

webbie

premierstone wrote:

You can only get one bonus point from a match im afraid;)

Sorry but that is not correct, the winning team can only receive 1 bonus point but the loosing team can recieve 2 if they score 4 tries and loose by 7 or less points as per the official rules as follows:

The following number of Match points will be awarded for each pool phase Match:

Win 4 points
Draw 2 points
4 or more tries 1 point
Loss by 7 points or less 1 point

RuggieBear

webbie wrote:

Sorry but that is not correct, the winning team can only receive 1 bonus point but the loosing team can recieve 2 if they score 4 tries and loose by 7 or less points as per the official rules as follows:

The following number of Match points will be awarded for each pool phase Match:

Win 4 points
Draw 2 points
4 or more tries 1 point
Loss by 7 points or less 1 point

QFT

premierstone

webbie wrote:

Sorry but that is not correct, the winning team can only receive 1 bonus point but the loosing team can recieve 2 if they score 4 tries and loose by 7 or less points as per the official rules as follows:

The following number of Match points will be awarded for each pool phase Match:

Win 4 points
Draw 2 points
4 or more tries 1 point
Loss by 7 points or less 1 point

oh my bad didn realise that but its like you said earlier it is a pretty unlikely scenario but you never know:o

dan719

tosh_thedude wrote:

I honestly dont think any of these will ever happy.... but if they did, I doubt any of the Irish lads would have the mental power to deduce such an outcome of points in there heads. Lets face it! We need to win our games! After that, who cares! We'll be beatin hands down in the last 8 regardless of who we meet.

Actually Malcolm O'Kelly has a degree in maths from trinity- no wonder EOS has him there. It makes perfect sense now.:rolleyes:

bing3

What happens if we beat France and lose to Argentina (who I would be more worried about). Are there any perms that would allow the French to pip us?
My brain hurts too much too compute

Imhof Tank

If we beat France without our own bonus point, but allow France 2 losing bonus points AND if Argentina lose to Namibia without a bonus point AND we lose to Argentina without any bonus points in the game AND France beat Georgia with a bonus point, then all 3 teams finish on 13 points and points difference seperates the 3 teams, so France could still go through.

France 6 + 2 + 5 = 13
Ireland 9 + 4 + 0 = 13
Argentina 9 + 0 + 4 = 13

webbie

bing3 wrote:

What happens if we beat France and lose to Argentina (who I would be more worried about). Are there any perms that would allow the French to pip us?
My brain hurts too much too compute

Very, very unlikely since even if they get 2 bonus points while loosing to us and we get none then we would be on 13 points and they would be on 8 so maximum they could get is 13 and since we would have beaten them we would finish above them unless Argentina lost to Namibia and got no loosing bonus point against them or no bonus point against us in which case we would all finish on 13 and it would go down to points difference which would mostly like mean France and Argentina go through.

As I say it is very unlikely and you can pretty safely say if we win on Friday we are through and only question is whether we win the group or come 2nd which will be decided by game with Argentina.