Am I just a complete station or does my line of thinking here make sense?

CaptainNemo · 11-09-2007 3:53pm #1

Live €1-€2 PL game at the Jackpot. There's a live straddle of €5 and the game is generally pretty loose, most pots are being raised preflop anywhere between €15-€30 and there are some big stacks at the table. Lots of bluffs have been shown and I've been playing quite loose.

I'm in the straddle and there are about 6 callers around to me. Almost every time I've been in the straddle I've raised the pot and so when I look down and see AT offsuit I think this is a perfect opportunity to do the same again, this time with a hand that, because no one has raised, has a good chance of being ahead right now.

So anyway I raise the pot (€30 I think) and there are 1 or 2 callers around to the SB, who now re-raises to €200!

I should fold, right?

Here's my thinking, and if this is completely fallacious I'd like to hear it:

The SB is a strong, solid, aggressive player (halfbaked). He almost always has a hand when he makes a move (except when he has 72o!). He is very unlikely to just complete in the SB with a hand that's ahead of me. The hands that I don't want to see here are: AJ, AQ, AK, and TT+. I'm very sure that with any of those hands the SB would have raised rather than simply completing.

I'm therefore putting him either on a weaker ace, or perhaps KQ, or most likely a smaller pair. I think that HE thinks I'm raising without much of a hand, and he's reraising to isolate me and/or make me fold.

The amount of dead money in the pot means that I've no problem with taking the (slightly) worse side of a race if he has a pair. There's also a change that he has a hand like A9 or A8 and simply thinks that I'm at it (he said afterwards there was no chance he'd make that move with such a weak hand).

Anyway, I go all in for not much more than the €200 and everyone else folds except a rather bad player who goes all in for his last €100. The SB turns over 88 and the rather bad player turns over A5. I spike a ten on the flop to take down a big pot, rather luckily as it turns out since two people said afterwwards that they folded a ten.

So my question is, does anyone else make this call in this situation. Does my thinking make any sense? (It did at the time but I was sleep deprived). Seeing as I've made this raise precisely to generate a reaction of "Oh here comes the raise, he can't have a hand every time, I'm going to move in here", surely I can't now fold my hand? Or am I just a big station?

LuckyLloyd · 11-09-2007 4:00pm

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CaptainNemo · 11-09-2007 4:04pm

LuckyLloyd wrote:

I've highlighted the key piece of information that is important here. He might just gamble and complete a range of TT+ AJs+ as a result in the hopes that you raise.

That twist never even occurred to me.

connie147 · 11-09-2007 4:06pm

Of course Peter doesnt have to have a real hand when he moves on a pot. But think for a minute here. You've already said that each and every time you've straddled,,you've raised to €30 when it came back to you.
Peter would have noticed this and I believe that even if he had a big pair, he would still have checked to you out of the sb knowing that you were going to make it 30, probably get a couple of callers and then he'd push to isolate.

I cant see how calling with A-10 here can be a good play.But wp by peter.

connie147 · 11-09-2007 4:07pm

You beat me to it LLoyd.

El Stuntman · 11-09-2007 4:07pm

ugggghhhhhh

BigCityBanker · 11-09-2007 4:09pm

Given your stack size I think a call is fine here.

LuckyLloyd · 11-09-2007 4:13pm

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cardshark202 · 11-09-2007 4:13pm

I think this is ok.

mrflash · 11-09-2007 4:15pm

I think that if you base this merely on your hole cards, its a folding situation. The fact that you have such good knowledge of your opponents play makes a big difference. You have said you put him on a weaker ace(you are a huge favourite), or pair lower that your ten(race), or kq(not as big of a favourite) and when you put them all together you are a favourite against his range in this spot. if he has a big pair or better ace, so be it, but you worked it out well and with that sort of information, i think you made a great call.

CaptainNemo · 11-09-2007 4:15pm

El Stuntman wrote:

ugggghhhhhh

Ha, that was pretty much everyone else a the table's reaction too.

I would normally fold a hand like AT offsuit even to a single raise preflop, but here I was convinced that he couldn't have a hand that was far ahead of me. But judging from the reaction here, there's a level of thinking that I just didn't go to (i.e. the possibility of Peter slowplaying a very strong hand to trap me after I raised). Thanks for pointing this out...

CaptainNemo · 11-09-2007 4:18pm

mrflash wrote:

I think that if you base this merely on your hole cards, its a folding situation. The fact that you have such good knowledge of your opponents play makes a big difference. You have said you put him on a weaker ace(you are a huge favourite), or pair lower that your ten(race), or kq(not as big of a favourite) and when you put them all together you are a favourite against his range in this spot. if he has a big pair or better ace, so be it, but you worked it out well and with that sort of information, i think you made a great call.

I really wasn't expecting to see the weaker ace or KQ. I was 90% sure he had a pair, and that it couldn't be TT+. But judging from what some others on this thread have said, he could easily be sandbagging a stronger hand, so I'm not sure this could be called a great call. It was very risky. In this case I turned out to be right but I wasn't happy to just leave it at that, hence my posting this thread...

LuckyLloyd · 11-09-2007 4:23pm

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Van Dice · 11-09-2007 4:25pm

Is raising AT here in the first place standard?

mrflash · 11-09-2007 4:27pm

CaptainNemo wrote:

I really wasn't expecting to see the weaker ace or KQ. I was 90% sure he had a pair, and that it couldn't be TT+. But judging from what some others on this thread have said, he could easily be sandbagging a stronger hand, so I'm not sure this could be called a great call. It was very risky. In this case I turned out to be right but I wasn't happy to just leave it at that, hence my posting this thread...

Well that makes a hell of a difference. So now you are more or less saying that you expecting a pair at the very least, or by the sounds of things from other posters aq or ak. So now its a bad call.

CaptainNemo · 11-09-2007 4:28pm

LuckyLloyd wrote:

Jaysus. Results orientated much folks? Peter's range here is probably 77+AQ+. You are never seeing KQ or A9 - A2. I think getting it in is shocking play.

I probably should have waited before including the result.

LuckyLloyd · 11-09-2007 4:29pm

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ianmc38 · 11-09-2007 4:33pm

i would raise AT alot there. Also, against Peters range this is an easy fold IMO

BigCityBanker · 11-09-2007 4:36pm

LuckyLloyd wrote:

Jaysus. Results orientated much folks? Peter's range here is probably 77+AQ+. You are never seeing KQ or A9 - A2. I think getting it in is shocking play.

Lloyd your range for peter here is arseways.

you will never see AK, highly unlikely to see AQ - you are likely to see AJ.

you will never see AA/KK/QQ

you will see 77 / 88 / 99 / 1010/ JJ / AJ. At a push you can include AQ - how does A10 stack up against this range?

Van Dice · 11-09-2007 4:42pm

BigCityBanker wrote:

you will see 77 / 88 / 99 / 1010/ JJ / AJ. At a push you can include AQ - how does A10 stack up against this range?

Badly?

ollyk1 · 11-09-2007 4:45pm

CaptainNemo wrote:

I'm in the straddle and there are about 6 callers around to me. Almost every time I've been in the straddle I've raised the pot

Stop doing this. Would you raise in the BB with sh1te if people limped into you on a regular basis?? So why do it cos there is a live straddle??

Creating a big pot oop with a bag of spanners is bad play.

Btw Peter talks a loose spewy game but falling for it is mistake number one imo.

BigCityBanker · 11-09-2007 4:46pm

Van Dice wrote:

Badly?

I doubt its that bad - and given "dead money" in pot i doubt the call is a bad one. There is also an expectation of more dead money with a shortstack gambling with a range you fare well against.

I see this as an opportunistic play which a good player is capable of making with a wide range of hands which you should be capable of looking up lightish.

CaptainNemo · 11-09-2007 4:49pm

ollyk1 wrote:

Stop doing this. Would you raise in the BB with sh1te if people limped into you on a regular basis?? So why do it cos there is a live straddle??

Creating a big pot oop with a bag of spanners is bad play.

Btw Peter talks a loose spewy game but falling for it is mistake number one imo.

I know Peter is a very good player which is why I was happy to take a race against him, if that was indeed what I was doing.

Fair point about the initial raise. I had just got myself into a kind of a rhythm with it. And one of the things to do in a session of poker is to set up a pattern and then take advantage of it at the right time. However in this case I think I hadn't quite picked up a good enough hand to take advantage of the move.

What would people think of the call if instead of AT I turned up here with 99 or AQ?

LuckyLloyd · 11-09-2007 4:50pm

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LuckyLloyd · 11-09-2007 4:52pm

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Van Dice · 11-09-2007 4:57pm

BigCityBanker wrote:

I doubt its that bad - and given "dead money" in pot i doubt the call is a bad one. There is also an expectation of more dead money with a shortstack gambling with a range you fare well against.

I see this as an opportunistic play which a good player is capable of making with a wide range of hands which you should be capable of looking up lightish.

Against the range you mentioned we have 33% equity. Tbh I see this as a bad play (both the raise and the call), and we have a hand which fares horribly against almost any range

ollyk1 · 11-09-2007 4:57pm

CaptainNemo wrote:

Fair point about the initial raise. I had just got myself into a kind of a rhythm with it. And one of the things to do in a session of poker is to set up a pattern and then take advantage of it at the right time. However in this case I think I hadn't picked up a good enough hand to take advantage.

Listen you play plenty of cash game and seem to know what you are doing. I think raising the odd hand from utg blind in a deep stacked live game to encourage action and to give yourself a loose image at an unknown cash table is fine. Compounding the problem with standard pot raises oop is a serious leak imo and anyone decent watching will punish you.

End of story imo.

BigCityBanker · 11-09-2007 4:58pm

LuckyLloyd wrote:

It's what makes him, ya know, good.

Its not up for debate that Peter is an excellent player. But if he only turned up with a hand that has us destroyed here then his play is bad.

I need specific reason to fold this and i dont think i have it on this occasion.

BigCityBanker · 11-09-2007 5:00pm

LuckyLloyd wrote:

175 BBs

is Nemo 175bbs deep in this hand? If he is then it would alter my opinion slightly.

CaptainNemo · 11-09-2007 5:03pm

BigCityBanker wrote:

is Nemo 175bbs deep in this hand? If he is then it would alter my opinion slightly.

Nope at this point in the night I had about 250 in front of me, so 125 BBs, with 15 of those little BBs already in the pot.

ollyk1 · 11-09-2007 5:04pm

BigCityBanker wrote:

Its not up for debate that Peter is an excellent player. But if he only turned up with a hand that has us destroyed here then his play is bad.

I need specific reason to fold this and i dont think i have it on this occasion.

There is a bad shortstack in the middle with 30% of his tank in the middle who Peter knows isn't folding. Peter has enough to be in good shape against that player at a minimum. We're at best 50/50 or else fúcked how can jamming in ~220 be good with only €30 in dead money as it should be obvious the shortstack is going to call it off.

Unless you have a sick read on the bad player for turing up a lot with bad aces to give you some value.

BigCityBanker · 11-09-2007 5:07pm

Van Dice wrote:

Against the range you mentioned we have 33% equity.

wow didnt think we were in such bad shape. irrespective due to dynamics of preflop action i still call.

opr · 11-09-2007 5:08pm

I would fold here. You never a big Fav and crushed a fair bit.

Opr

CaptainNemo · 11-09-2007 5:08pm

ollyk1 wrote:

There is a bad shortstack in the middle with 30% of his tank in the middle who Peter knows isn't folding. Peter has enough to be in good shape against that player at a minimum. We're at best 50/50 or else fúcked how can jamming in ~220 be good with only €30 in dead money as it should be obvious the shortstack is going to call it off.

Unless you have a sick read on the bad player for turing up a lot with bad aces to give you some value.

There is €90 in dead money from those who have already called my raise, with another €70 approx to come from the bad shortstack. That makes the pot approximately €200 when Peter's raise comes back at me, giving me pretty much 2 to 1. Surely that compensates for the possiblilty of being in a 70-30 domination situation against a bigger ace or TT+?

ollyk1 · 11-09-2007 5:10pm

BigCityBanker wrote:

wow didnt think we were in such bad shape. irrespective due to dynamics of preflop action i still call.

Interesting I saw you make a move in a cash game against a €100 short bad tank and get it over the line with AT and he turned up with A9 and I meant to ask you about it as I thought it was pretty marginal but you seem to have a different opinion.

Van Dice · 11-09-2007 5:13pm

CaptainNemo wrote:

I know Peter is a very good player which is why I was happy to take a race against him, if that was indeed what I was doing.

Not a tourney, you could just not play pots against him if he's that good.

CaptainNemo wrote:

Fair point about the initial raise. I had just got myself into a kind of a rhythm with it. And one of the things to do in a session of poker is to set up a pattern and then take advantage of it at the right time. However in this case I think I hadn't quite picked up a good enough hand to take advantage of the move.

Setting up patterns to take advantage of is important against decent players, but you want those patterns to be good for you, and raising the straddle isn't going to be a profitable pattern imo. I don't think AT is strong enough to call AI here anyway.

CaptainNemo wrote:

What would people think of the call if instead of AT I turned up here with 99 or AQ?

AQ and 99 are close imo, and I probably call AI.

jbravado · 11-09-2007 5:15pm

I was in this game aswell-didnt realise who you were at the time.Nice playing with you.
Peter NEVER has a worse ace here imo and thats pretty important.I think the way we were all kind of clowning around was a bit of a factor in this hand-I dont think its hoffific but getting so much in with a10 against Peter isnt really a winning play imo.There were some players at the table that youd beat then into the pot with a 10-Peter isnt one of them.

BigCityBanker · 11-09-2007 5:16pm

ollyk1 wrote:

Interesting I saw you make a move in a cash game against a €100 short bad tank and get it over the line with AT and he turned up with A9 and I meant to ask you about it as I thought it was pretty marginal but you seem to have a different opinion.

what was that hand? and against who? i cant remember.

CaptainNemo · 11-09-2007 5:20pm

jbravado wrote:

I was in this game aswell-didnt realise who you were at the time.Nice playing with you.
Peter NEVER has a worse ace here imo and thats pretty important.I think the way we were all kind of clowning around was a bit of a factor in this hand-I dont think its hoffific but getting so much in with a10 against Peter isnt really a winning play imo.There were some players at the table that youd beat then into the pot with a 10-Peter isnt one of them.

Hi, yes, Peter only told me afterwards who you were on boards, it was a fun night :-) And yes I think you're right about the clowning around. But the more general thing is that I want to clean up leaks in my game and I'm aware that I call more loosely than many players. Sometimes that comes from just not being able to lay down a hand. But sometimes it comes from thinking through the possibilities and guessing that I'm really not far behind. So if I've got flaws in what I think is my "good" thinking then I have a problem...

I did get lucky in this hand though as judging from peoples' comments Peter turned up with just about the worst possible hand he could have in this situation.

BuChan · 11-09-2007 5:24pm

looking at the hand and table dynamics specifically it wasn't such a bad play. you say everyone has been very active and raising a lot so if it's limped into your blind straddle and you find A10 it's likely you have the best hand so raising isn't so bad. the only possible holding for peter here that has you in bad shape is AJ (which i don't think you'll see often), any hand better than that and peter would have opened the pot himself. it makes perfect sense for him to have 22-99. here to be honest i'm surprised he had 88 i would have guessed 22-66 maybe 77. you asked a few posts up should you call with 99, AQ? obviously yes you should, those hands are considerably stronger and much less likely to be dominated.

opr · 11-09-2007 5:25pm

Just to say purely taking this as a maths question. At the point in the hand when you have to call you need about 40% equity against his range just to make this a break even call.

Opr

CaptainNemo · 11-09-2007 5:26pm

BuChan wrote:

looking at the hand and table dynamics specifically it wasn't such a bad play. you say everyone has been very active and raising a lot so if it's limped into your blind straddle and you find A10 it's likely you have the best hand so raising isn't so bad. the only possible holding for peter here that has you in bad shape is AJ (which i don't think you'll see often), any hand better than that and peter would have opened the pot himself. it makes perfect sense for him to have 22-99. here to be honest i'm surprised he had 88 i would have guessed 22-66 maybe 77. you asked a few posts up should you call with 99, AQ? obviously yes you should, those hands are considerably stronger and much less likely to be dominated.

People have been making the point, which I never thought of, that he may have sandbagged a much stronger hand in order to trap me.

ollyk1 · 11-09-2007 5:27pm

BigCityBanker wrote:

what was that hand? and against who? i cant remember.

Don't want to derail the thread but I guess its got some similarities
1/2 plh in the SE

Early in the night with some short bad stacks

I think there was a straddle and 3 limpers and a LP short stack (unknown but you didn't seem to rate him) raised pot and you were in the SB and after a
considerable dwell you repotted. Everyone else finally folds and your man instacalls off ~€100 with A9 (I had seen his hand before he bet pot) and I thought you had a read that the guy was tilting and decided to play for his stack. Now that I see your a big fan of ATo I'm not so sure!!

Van Dice · 11-09-2007 5:28pm

BigCityBanker wrote:

Its not up for debate that Peter is an excellent player. But if he only turned up with a hand that has us destroyed here then his play is bad.

Joking yeah?

I think calling all in is less bad than raising 6 limpers OOP with ATo anyway

BigCityBanker · 11-09-2007 5:30pm

i must of had a read or sumthin Olly.

BigCityBanker · 11-09-2007 5:32pm

opr wrote:

Just to say purely taking this as a maths question. At the point in the hand when you have to call you need almost 43% equity against his range just to make this a break even call.

Opr

What exact range is that? I would have expected we were in this bracket.

sikes · 11-09-2007 5:38pm

This is a 3 way pot, we cant get near 40% with AT. Its going to be difficult to work out without the exact numbers, but I dont like it.

LuckyLloyd · 11-09-2007 5:40pm

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opr · 11-09-2007 5:45pm

sikes wrote:

This is a 3 way pot, we cant get near 40% with AT. Its going to be difficult to work out without the exact numbers, but I dont like it.

Well i was taking it as a direct equity question after Peter pushes.

If we include the short stack will push an extra 70 into the pot means the equity we need decreases to 35%.

Opr

BigCityBanker · 11-09-2007 5:45pm

BuChan wrote:

the only possible holding for peter here that has you in bad shape is AJ (which i don't think you'll see often), any hand better than that and peter would have opened the pot himself.

just in case ppl decide to brush over this il quote it and nod in agreement.

cardshark202 · 11-09-2007 5:45pm

The reason I don't think this can ever be terrible is because his range is weighted towards medium strength hands a lot I would say as opposed to very strong ones. Throw in the odd time Peter makes the move with a weak hand and it can't be much of a mistake to get it in here. Its really dependant on how often exactly you had been squeezing your straddle though. If Peter could be 100% certain you were gonna squeeze again then it increases the chances of him sandbagging a big hand, but it may also increase the chance of him making a move with a weaker one.

Am I just a complete station or does my line of thinking here make sense?

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