Cheltenham 2008

Colonel Sanders

Well lads. Very bored with the flat so thinking ahead to the jumps season and the start of the REAL racing. As always the season will revolve around 4 days in March when all roads will lead to Cheltenham. At the moment these are my antepost bets:

Iktitaf (backed @ 34 on Betfair, Champion Hurdle): Backed this horse purely with a view to trading out at a shorter price. Looked unlucky last year when was still travelling but not sure he would have come up the hill. Disappointed at punchestown but is still a talented horse, will surely win some of the earlier 2m hurdle races in Ireland ensuring I can lay off.

Nickname (backed @ 42 on Betfair, Champion Chase): Without a doubt the best 2m chaser in Ireland on soft ground and will rack up another sequence in 2m chases. Traded at single figures at one stage last year and will probably do so again.

Aran Concerto (RSA Chase): Haven't backed him yet but is surely a gilt edged trading opportunity. Will win a beginners chase impressively (possibly at Navan at that decent meeting in November) and will no doubt be hyped up again. Trade then at half the price or be brave and wait for him to shorten further.

All the above are seen as trades rather than horses I fancy strongly. For the record I am stunned that Bob's Pride is trading at 20/1 for the champion hurdle. The other 'if he wins I'll give up' horse for me is Clopf, again in the Champion Hurdle. His Punchestown Grade 1 form is full of holes and I think he'll be exposed outisde of novice company next season.

Currently having a look at the Gold Cup market for a decent trading opportunity but nothing jumps up at me yet!!!

fr wishy washy

Fair play for putting up your thoughts so early.
Agree on Nickname being top class on easy ground but we haven't had easy ground at the Festival in years so I think you might have trouble laying it off if you leave it too late.

knighted_1

one thing to remember or keep in mind for the forthcoming nh season is that we have had such a wet summer we might be in for an indian summer by the time the season starts and it could play havoc with the ground ,with the better horses nearly always wanting soft it could turn up firm for a few months -but i hope im wrong

either way i cant wait for the nh season as i am fed up with flat and usually dont even bother watching it -

Dap Daddy

Colonel Sanders wrote:

All the above are seen as trades rather than horses I fancy strongly. For the record I am stunned that Bob's Pride is trading at 20/1 for the champion hurdle. The other 'if he wins I'll give up' horse for me is Clopf, again in the Champion Hurdle. His Punchestown Grade 1 form is full of holes and I think he'll be exposed outisde of novice company next season.

I would be keeping both these horses on my side for the coming season.Bobs Pride was one of the most improved horses in training at the backend of last season.He slammed the facile Galway Plate winner at Punchestown and that form to me looks rock solid.He is one of the classier flat horses to go jumping and has proved he can do the job (at handicap company at least).He is the type to rattle up a sequence and looks the perfect horse as a trading out perspective.

Clopf is a serious horse but had alot of problems last season. You have to remember Punchestown was his first run over hurdles in over 5 months and in my eyes he was given a shocking ride by Geraghty.Look at his prior form with Aitmatov and it looks rock solid.If he was right for Cheltenham I would have no doubt that he would have hosed up.For a novice he jumped like a seasoned handicapper and while I think 2 miles at championship pace might be abit sharp for him I wouldn't like to be a layer come March if he lines up.

One to watch out for in the Gold Cup would be Another Promise.He has a very similar profile to War Of Attrition and was was very impressive from what I was from him last season.He really does jump like a stag which is what you need in a Gold Cup horse and he looks like he would relish the step up in trip.50/1 is a monster price.

Just my opinion lads but isn't that what this game is about.

Colonel Sanders

Clopf was destroyed at Fairyhouse in the royal bond by a horse who was shown up to be nowhere near top class (hide the evidence) when sent off a heavily backed 4/5 fav.

As you say, all about opinions!!!

mdwexford

At last a thread worth posting in.

Ok my very early views are as follows :

Champion Hurdle
I think we can all agree now that the old guard (Brave Inca, Hardy Eustace) are now officially past it. This leaves the way open for a lot of the younger horse coming through. I am not a fan of Sublimity and think he was lucky in the Champion Hurdle to come up against two former champions who were on the downgrade, Detroit City and Straw Bear ran well below form, not to mention Iktitaf comin down when looking a major threat. He will not have things so easy this time around.

Im also ruling out Katchit completely, anyone who wants to know why look at Detroit City last season, 5yo's usually have a tough time competing in open company when out of their novice season and i dont think he will be any exception. Blythe Knight and Bobs Pride dont appeal to me at all, Detroit City has lots to prove after his shambolic displays at the tail end of last season.
Thats the top 5 in the betting ruled out for me which means there is a lot of value lower in the market.

Straw Bear was progressing nicely last season and was going pretty well in the CH before bursting a blood vessel. If he comes back fit and well he will be a challenger this year. 29s on betfair looks appealling.

Clopf missed the festival last season due to being lame but was a good winner of the Grade 1 novice at Punchestown and could well have gone through his novice campaign unbeaten but for a poor run on unsuitable heavy ground to Hide The Evidence. He has bags of class and i think he will be the main Irish challenger this season and at 40s is cracking value.

Amaretto Rose is another who is very unexposed, she hosed up twice prior to Cheltenham and ran a nice race in third and i think with a little more experience this year she could be a force come March. Henderson thinks the world of her and the way she cut through the Supreme Novices field last year makes me think she has the class to trouble the top 2 milers. Currently 42s on betfair.

A very dark horse is Nicanor who obviously has to come back from a long lay off but is still the only horse to defeat the mighty Denman and has speed and class to burn. Meade has Aran Concerto to go novice chasing with so Nicanor could be interesting if he returns over hurdles. havent seen a price for him but i presume it would be huge.

Champion Chase
With last years top novice My Way De Solzen looking to have more ambitious targets and Fair Along having gotten put in his place at Cheltenham and Aintree the only decent horse from last seasons novices looks to be Twist Magic. I think he will find it tough to beat Voy Por Ustedes though.
Well Chief has a bit to prove now and i wouldnt touch him until hes proven hes back to form. Nickname needs soft/heavy ground and at the moment the unimaginitive selection is going to have to be the favourite at 5.6 which could look value come christmas.

Gold Cup
This is the race of the festival already and i just pray that none of the principles get injured in the run up to March. The thoughts of Kauto Star, Denman and My Way De Solzen clashing is mouth watering. No one else has a prayer so theres no need to look further. Personally Kauto Star is the best horse ive ever seen and i think defeat is out of the question is hes 100% come Gold Cup day. But he will be facing two top class horses this year and it will be a much tougher task. 3.2 is no value though and he will still be that price after his comeback run so i wouldnt bother doing a bet till after that.


Thats about it at the moment although Granit Jack looks made for the Arkle but will probably be well short enough already due to connections success in that division.

Morgans

Amaretto Rose is 99% certain to be retired to the paddocks. Her owners had her leased for the year from the stud that own her. Cant see Nicanor going back over hurdles, hopefully he does make it back to the track. Could be an Arkle horse this year if retaining his ability. Those who think Clopf's grade 1 is good enough to be involved must think that Rindoon and Holly Tree will be there and thereabouts. I dont. Aitmatov was a better horse later in the season than when meeting clopf over 2m, and his form isnt great.

its odd that AR was mentioned and Ebaziyan wasnt. Travelled better than anything in the Supreme (and I was on AR at 14s and 12s) and won without any fluke. Disappointed at Punchestwon when he was beaten after two furlongs. Happens plenty of class horses at punchestown. Brave Inca put up a horrible display as well. If you discount that run, which wasnt within a parish of his chelt effort, To me, he is the one piece of value in what looks a poor Champion Hurdle field at the moment.

It is ripe for a good horse to come through the ranks. Sublimity, who won on merit last year, and deserves to be favourite to retain the title at this stage. He wouldnt like it on the quick side of good. Cheltenham will probably make sure it isnt, but its something to bear in mind. And given that you wont see that often between now and CHelt, his price probably wont change much.

Champion Chase

King wont run both MDWS and VPU. VPU is the percentage call, stands his racing well and looks a good favourite. Hard to see any of last year's novices being good enough. The only fly in the ointment is if Kauto Star steps back in distance. Which is possible given the fact that Nicholls also has the second fav for the Gold Cup. Its a longshot, but not out of the question. Hard to see Monet's Garden being effective at Chelt but he would have the class to shake up the fav at his best, very unlikely at this stage to produce it at Chelt.

Gold Cup
Denman will put it up to Kauto Star and will ensure that the GC wont be run at a dawdle. The two are well clear at this stage. Exotic Dancer should still be in the argument. kauto Star's stamina over a strongly run 3m2f looks to the only possible flaw. If he comes back from what was a hard season well.. What ruby rides will be telling.

Colonel Sanders

Morgans wrote:

Those who think Clopf's grade 1 is good enough to be involved must think that Rindoon and Holly Tree will be there and thereabouts. I dont. Aitmatov was a better horse later in the season than when meeting clopf over 2m, and his form isnt great.

I agree with this 100%. If you actually look thro Clopf's form its not great (bar thrashing Atitmatov, who as you say, got better as the season progressed). Even going back to punchestown 2006 he was found out in the G1 bumper which at the time looked a top class race but not as much so now. Maybe the horse had problems but even still I would't back it at 100/1 never mind 33s.

I still wonder how Wilie Mullins can sleep at night after the Ebaziyan run in the same punchestown novice clopf won :mad:

Must actually have a better look at the gold cup. The clash between MWDS, Kauto, Denman and Exotic Dancer is something to look forward to already. Exotic dancer improved all last year and his aintree performance (where i'd probably my biggest bet so far this calender year) was awesome. However backing him is surely a back to lay rather than a straight bet as Kauto star looks the absolute business and is still only 7.

mdwexford

At the moment im putting Ebaziyan's Cheltenham win down as a freak result until he repeats the performance, and im not holding my breath.

Im looking at Clopf as a potential horse rather than a horse who has achieved much at the moment. He doesnt have the form of a world beater yet but i just think he has bags of potential.

Will they really retire Amaretto Rose when she has done so little??
Dissapointing if they do, its not the flat!!!!

Exotic Dancer couldnt get near Kauto Star last season and i fail to see how it could be different this time around.

I also forgot about Noland coming back for Nicholls this year, could be a vintage Arkle if a few of them take to fences.

Bullensroad

I think Dermot Weld is expcting big things from Bobs Pride this year and i wouldnt write him off whatsoever. I was at cheltenham at the champion hurdle and backed Rindoon eway in the supreme novices but he bursted a blood vessel a mate knows one of the owners. They expected a big run that day. He ran a blinder at Punchestown i think he is one to watch for next year.

Being a racing fanatic i read alot of the racing mags and read somewhere that Harry Findley (think thats his name) and the other guy, who own Denman bought a great young point to pointer in England and Findley has backed him in the same race that Denman won at Cheltenham. I cant remember the horses name but will look for the article and post it later.

Its hard to see anything toppling Kauto Star but its very early days yet.

Great topic and great to here peoples thoughts.

knighted_1

one horse that i am looking forward to following this season is black harry -a tired fall in cheltenham against a superstar ,but if he is ok i really hope they send him chasing ,looks to me like he could go to the top as he looked and travelled and jumped with a touch of class .any opinions ?

Colonel Sanders

Black Harry should make an interesting recruit to novice chasing. Has the stamp of a chaser and was a high class hurdler.

Must say I feared the worst when he fell at Cheltenham, was very glad to see him get up off the deck

Sir Denman

mdwexford wrote:

At the moment im putting Ebaziyan's Cheltenham win down as a freak result until he repeats the performance, and im not holding my breath.

Im looking at Clopf as a potential horse rather than a horse who has achieved much at the moment. He doesnt have the form of a world beater yet but i just think he has bags of potential.

Will they really retire Amaretto Rose when she has done so little??
Dissapointing if they do, its not the flat!!!!

Exotic Dancer couldnt get near Kauto Star last season and i fail to see how it could be different this time around.

I also forgot about Noland coming back for Nicholls this year, could be a vintage Arkle if a few of them take to fences.

Granit Jack not allowed to run in Arkle as he's not a novice over fences, rather like Neptunes! Just found your forum, quite enjoyed reading it, keep it up. The point to point horse is called Nevada Royale by the way!

Sir Denman

knighted_1 wrote:

one horse that i am looking forward to following this season is black harry -a tired fall in cheltenham against a superstar ,but if he is ok i really hope they send him chasing ,looks to me like he could go to the top as he looked and travelled and jumped with a touch of class .any opinions ?

Against a superstar?? Would hardly think so!:eek:

mdwexford

Sir Denman wrote:

Granit Jack not allowed to run in Arkle as he's not a novice over fences, rather like Neptunes! Just found your forum, quite enjoyed reading it, keep it up. The point to point horse is called Nevada Royale by the way!

Holy mother of god you are right of course sir, i completely forgot about that. Im gutted, wanted to see him maul the 2 mile novice division. But on the other hand VPU has a bit of competition now........

What PTP horse???

knighted_1

Sir Denman wrote:

Against a superstar?? Would hardly think so!:eek:

probably a bad choice of words on my part -dont know how to describe him but at a rating of 154 with 10 runs 6 of them wins and two seconds ,i really think he is a good horse ,-at this stage of wichitas career its ratings put him on par with the likes of brave inca and hardy eustace at the same stage in thier careers ,so u see where i was coming from -i think black harry will make a better chaser and im sure they will meet over fences in the future

Sir Denman

mdwexford wrote:

Holy mother of god you are right of course sir, i completely forgot about that. Im gutted, wanted to see him maul the 2 mile novice division. But on the other hand VPU has a bit of competition now........

What PTP horse???

Sorry Md, that Pt to Pt horse was for Bullenshead topic above. Interesting you think Granit will be up to Queen Mother standard, will have to leave that hurdle form miles behind! In the right hands though. A friend of mine was mad keen on him for Arkle as well so don't worry, I guarantee he's feeling a lot more sheepish than you!:p

Sir Denman

No bother knighted 1! I know where your coming from!

Would worry about backing Harry over fences after seeing the mess he made of the last at Chelts over hurdles?! Just worry that will leave its mark long term?

On Wichita yes he has done very well. The question I would ask is can he go forward again? Brit Insurance form hardly inspires me. By that I mean towards championship races not races in general national hunt season. To me the Sun Alliance is the proper race for young stayers. How did Wichita swerve that? Also they way he travels is very uninspiring, the better races he runs in will run him of feet if travelling like that in future. He is tough as old boots though! He will jump a fence if they go down that route, but Id imagine they'll have a crack at Stayers first.

Sir Denman

Bullensroad, my Irish friend who is much respected, put up Rindoon as serious outsider in Supreme. I didnt know he burst, interesting. He left that form miles behind at Punchie though and will win more races for sure this year! He is also interested in Bobs Pride. I must admit I know little about the horse but he thinks its a tip in itself that Weld never ran him in Galway hurdle such is what he expects this season.

Cant wait to see how Gold cup develops, esp with Denman in same stable as Kauto. I can see Denman outstaying Kauto and I don't think Porky will be keen to run Kauto against him anyway so I feel he will drop Kauto in trip such is his speed.

Sir Denman

mdwexford wrote:

At the moment im putting Ebaziyan's Cheltenham win down as a freak result until he repeats the performance, and im not holding my breath.

Im looking at Clopf as a potential horse rather than a horse who has achieved much at the moment. He doesnt have the form of a world beater yet but i just think he has bags of potential.

Will they really retire Amaretto Rose when she has done so little??
Dissapointing if they do, its not the flat!!!!

Exotic Dancer couldnt get near Kauto Star last season and i fail to see how it could be different this time around.

I also forgot about Noland coming back for Nicholls this year, could be a vintage Arkle if a few of them take to fences.

Totally agree with you MD, Mullins horse pure fluke in worst Supreme Ive ever seen! I know what your saying regarding Clopf too, though hes turning into a hype horse already imo. Had the brains on him at Punchie, and whilst I here he wasnt himself etc etc that is still a mile behind Champion form. Has potential though! Exotic had his season last year, cant see it been anywhere like that this year! Re Noland, They never seem to come back eh!

Sir Denman

Like bits of what your saying bout Champion preview MD! Katchit will really struggle this year and top five in betting look very opposable, agreed! Couldnt have Amaretto in million years. She hated that hill(typical Alflora!) and form knowhere near whats required in any case. As ive said Clopf doesnt look up to it either but can understand you are going on potential. Its just very difficult to say what is going to win at this stage! Nothing outstanding for me at present.

Morgans

I can understand why you could think that the supreme form is dodgy, but I cant understand how you can view it as a fluke performance from the winner. The impression I'm getting is that you think Ebiziyan somehow ran well above its natural ability at Cheltenham. That to me doesnt make sense.

Witchita Lineman may have ran in the 3m rather than the sun alliance, like BJK, but WL, possibly unlike BJK, ran as if he needed the 3m at Chelt. Also, unlike BJK, he had hammered most of the SAH field as well. With MM out, ID getting on, Golden Cross who knows, to me he is the most likely winner of the stayers at this early stage. I would definitely have him ahead of Massini's Maguire. I think the 3m this year was a better race, and Black Harry is a horse of huge potential also. Was certain he was dead after the fall.

meriwether

Horses to follow for the NH? Lovely.

First up, I think Ill go the route slightly less travelled.
A few interesting horses I recall of the top of my head ATM include:

Star De Mohasin, Paul Nicholls chaser. Nicholls has lots of 3mile chasers, and SdM isn't his best. but his form is very close to The Listner. He could pick up an interesting chase along the way.

Desert Quest and Noble request. One in Nicholls (DQ?) and one is Hobbs, but cant quite remember which.
Both were in the betting for the Champion Hurdle for a while.
Wont win the CH, but again, could pick up a 2m hurdle somewhere.

Jazz Messenger. Where will he be campaigned, as Meade also has Iktitaf and Harchibald (if he comes back)?

Perce Rock, Tommy Stacks inmate, is an interesting nag. Might pick up a win when the going is soft/heavy.

Looking at Paul Nolan, will we see Cloone River/Accordian Etolie/Cuan na Grai campaigned?
If so, where? CR was injured, a one time winner at Galway and AP Fav for the Victor Chandler. Accordian Etolie fell in the Arkle a while back, then won at Punchestown.
Cuan na Grai, also a winner at Galway.

An interesting horse that will be under the radar, is Ringaroses, Henrietta Knights horse.
His profile is similar to Massini Maguires. He didnt run at C'ham, he will pick up something along the way. He ran OK in the famous bumper of 2 years ago in C'ham, won by Hairy Molly.

What will become of Amstecos, who won a few bumpers and hurdles last year?

Going back to the obvious, what becomes of Witchita Lineman this year will be interesting. His profile is identical to BJK, and both are trained by JJ O'Neill.
They took the easy route with the British Novices Hurdle in C'ham, but he's a better horse than Massini's Maguire, and would probably have won the Novices hurdle had he ran.

mdwexford

Sir Denman wrote:

Sorry Md, that Pt to Pt horse was for Bullenshead topic above. Interesting you think Granit will be up to Queen Mother standard, will have to leave that hurdle form miles behind! In the right hands though. A friend of mine was mad keen on him for Arkle as well so don't worry, I guarantee he's feeling a lot more sheepish than you!:p

His hurdles form is decent enough plus his French chase form is decent too, remember Azertyuiop was no world beater over hurdles but when he went over the larger obstacles he was a machine. Now im not comparing them yet obviously but in what looks a weak year for 2 mile chasers he looks one who could be interesting.

Sir Denman

Morgans wrote:

I can understand why you could think that the supreme form is dodgy, but I cant understand how you can view it as a fluke performance from the winner. The impression I'm getting is that you think Ebiziyan somehow ran well above its natural ability at Cheltenham. That to me doesnt make sense.

Witchita Lineman may have ran in the 3m rather than the sun alliance, like BJK, but WL, possibly unlike BJK, ran as if he needed the 3m at Chelt. Also, unlike BJK, he had hammered most of the SAH field as well. With MM out, ID getting on, Golden Cross who knows, to me he is the most likely winner of the stayers at this early stage. I would definitely have him ahead of Massini's Maguire. I think the 3m this year was a better race, and Black Harry is a horse of huge potential also. Was certain he was dead after the fall.

Hi Morgans, Ebiziyan did run above his natural ability at Chelts? Had shown nothing like that form previously, as 40-1 odds reflected? Then he was a disgrace at Punchie in next race so makes sense for me to question Chelt effort. Either a fluke or cheating at its best by Mullins. Don't get me wrong it didnt surprise me that supreme sprung a funny result because it didnt have an outstanding candidate i.m.o. Would never have picked Ebiziyan though and certainly not looking at him as Champion prospect this year.
I agree that 3m did help Wichita, whereas Blackjack prob ran in it more as the easy option. But BJK had beaten everything put in front of him too, obv except Denman and Nicanor. Think JJ took easy option again by going for Brit with WL as was Ballymore better and more prestigious race imo. Anyway, I agree Stayers field vaunerable(like Champion) and would have WL before Massini's as well. Yet I can't help think he needs to improve(not out of question) to win a stayers. For me, as much as Black Harry is a nice chasing prospect, WL made awful hard work in picking him up and he I feel in better races he will be found wanting for tactical speed and won't get away with travelling so badly.

Sir Denman

Would agree MD that Granit will make a much better chaser. He was so disappointing for most of last year but Supreme showed vast improvement in form and Porky tremendous at training such types going chasing. Mite be hard to place off French rating though and hard to believe he will be able to compete with horses like VPU etc so early in career. That is the problem with going straight into open company but look how well Porky did with a similair type in Neptunes last season so will be interesting to follow.

What N.H horses are you most looking forward to next year(exposed and unexposed)?

Morgans

Sir Denman wrote:

Hi Morgans, Ebiziyan did run above his natural ability at Chelts? Had shown nothing like that form previously, as 40-1 odds reflected? Then he was a disgrace at Punchie in next race so makes sense for me to question Chelt effort. Either a fluke or cheating at its best by Mullins. Don't get me wrong it didnt surprise me that supreme sprung a funny result because it didnt have an outstanding candidate i.m.o. Would never have picked Ebiziyan though and certainly not looking at him as Champion prospect this year.
I agree that 3m did help Wichita, whereas Blackjack prob ran in it more as the easy option. But BJK had beaten everything put in front of him too, obv except Denman and Nicanor. Think JJ took easy option again by going for Brit with WL as was Ballymore better and more prestigious race imo. Anyway, I agree Stayers field vaunerable(like Champion) and would have WL before Massini's as well. Yet I can't help think he needs to improve(not out of question) to win a stayers. For me, as much as Black Harry is a nice chasing prospect, WL made awful hard work in picking him up and he I feel in better races he will be found wanting for tactical speed and won't get away with travelling so badly.

Not exactly sure that I follow you here. BJK is not the same horse as WL, and he beat everything that was put in front of him, including in a poor edition of the Brit. There was every chance that he would have been exposed by Nicanor and Denman. No disgrace in that. O'Neill took his chance with Refinement in the race. But it was the easy option. There was nothing in his form to suggest he would have won the SAH. However, WL is a different ball game. He has the form in the book to win the Ballymore Properties, having easily beaten the first two at Chelt previously.

The travelling throughout his races is definitely an issue, but Inglis Drever was the first beaten going down the back at Chelt last year. Although WL did hit a flat spot, he picked up well and had BH knackered by the last - thought there was going to be fatal consequences, but lucky there wasnt. I'm not a big fan of JJON, and wouldnt trust any horse that he trains, but in WL, he has the best novice hurdler of last season.

I dont believe horses can run above their natural ability. Its just a question of the trainer being able to produce his horse to run its best, and have the conditions that allows the horse to produce its best. Thurles in january isnt going to be the same conditions that Ebaz faced at Chelt. What Ebaz has done is proven that he can act round Chelt, is suited by a breakneck pace, travells better off it, and has plenty of scope to improve. I cant think how any punter worth his salt can think that he ran to form at Punchestown.

It is odd. Granit Jack was in much the same mould as Neptune Collonges, but improved for the step back in trip. I would think that the QM would completely take him off his feet, this year at least. Will be difficult to place. Cant see him being up to QM standard. Wouldnt be surprised to see Neptune Collonges pay a few visits to Ireland this year.

Colonel Sanders

Morgans wrote:

Wouldnt be surprised to see Neptune Collonges pay a few visits to Ireland this year.

Think Nicholls (or 'Porky' as Sir Denman calls him, lol!!) was saying after Punchestown that this was the plan alright.

I think WL was possibly the best novice last year and has been pointed out beat the 1-2 in the Ballymore during the season. Does he definately stay over hurdles or is novice chasing the plan?

No way Ebizayan ran to form at punchestown, it was an absolute disgrace and I hope Willie Mullins is proud of himself. Horse drifts like a barge, then is plonked out the back of the field and never put into the race or asked for a serious effort.

I think this seasons Champion Hurdle will be the weakest for some time to be honest, altho I have heard rumours that Michael Stoute's horse Ask has been bought to go hurdling with the CH the aim.

Morgans

I dont think there was any skullduggery going on at PUnchestown. I suppose its always a possibility, but the horse wasnt travelling after two furlongs. THere are easier ways to hide a horse. Not too many would be hiding in a Grade 1 either.

Colonel Sanders

I think they knew the horse wasn't right, still ran it and 'someone' made a few bob on betfair.

Think a 'problem' with the horse came to light after the race. Strange that he drifted so badly when no announcement was made beforehand.

mdwexford

Im firmly in the belief that on a given day a horse is capable of running far above its natural ability. I mean look at Contrabands Arkle, nothing he did before or after it was within pounds of that run. But that day he travelled like a dream, tanking along and absolutely bolted up in the hottest race of the year. Strange results do happen and i think last years Sup Nov was one of them.

premierstone

But surely if you are to use all logic here then all the other runs were below form and the run in chelt was him running to his true ability - its not possible to run above your natural ability its like the old cliche of 110% - it just aint possible, unless of course he had some unnatural assistance which i dont think anyone here suspects

Morgans

I would have the completely opposed view. Its all a bit philosophical.

A horses best form maybe get him a rating of 130, for example. That is that horse performing to his best on his best day. In my view, this represents the horses natural abiliity. It is the job of the trainer and the jockey to get him as close to his best as possible. If the ground is against him, if the race isnt run to suit, he will get less than 130.

I cant see how a horse can run above itself. But that is getting philosophical about things. But I do believe its the best way of viewing form.

Contraband is one of a long list of decent horses that soured under Pipe, after hitting one big pot. He was a good novice chaser that season, and ran to the pound on previous form with My Will over 2m in the Arkle, IIRC. His form figures mightnt have looked good beforehand, but was only beaten by a flying Fundamentalist over 2m before Chelt. The fact that the horse was essentially a dog, and didnt try after Pipe decided to run him twice when chasing the trainers championship, means that he never could get back to the same form as his cheltenham win.

I think it is miles too early to be writing off Ebaziyad. I was disappointed by his punchestown run, but I think it is best to forgive him that. I'm not sure if he can show anything near his cheltenham form before next years festival.

Morgans

I agree with Premierstone.

Crumbs

Looking forward to seeing Glencove Marina over fences. Think they're going down the Arkle route with him, so we may not see him at his best until the following season when he goes over further.

Hope to see Nicanor and Mr Nosie retain their ability and progress as chasers but we all know how a serious injury can affect a horse's career.

knighted

i had heard that accordian etoile was back from injury and might reappear at the open in nov -

Mr Brightside

Wouldnt it be better for denman to go over to ireland and hoover up all the poor grade 1's that even cheekpieces beef or salmon managed?

Sir Denman

Morgans wrote:

Not exactly sure that I follow you here. BJK is not the same horse as WL, and he beat everything that was put in front of him, including in a poor edition of the Brit. There was every chance that he would have been exposed by Nicanor and Denman. No disgrace in that. O'Neill took his chance with Refinement in the race. But it was the easy option. There was nothing in his form to suggest he would have won the SAH. However, WL is a different ball game. He has the form in the book to win the Ballymore Properties, having easily beaten the first two at Chelt previously.

The travelling throughout his races is definitely an issue, but Inglis Drever was the first beaten going down the back at Chelt last year. Although WL did hit a flat spot, he picked up well and had BH knackered by the last - thought there was going to be fatal consequences, but lucky there wasnt. I'm not a big fan of JJON, and wouldnt trust any horse that he trains, but in WL, he has the best novice hurdler of last season.

I dont believe horses can run above their natural ability. Its just a question of the trainer being able to produce his horse to run its best, and have the conditions that allows the horse to produce its best. Thurles in january isnt going to be the same conditions that Ebaz faced at Chelt. What Ebaz has done is proven that he can act round Chelt, is suited by a breakneck pace, travells better off it, and has plenty of scope to improve. I cant think how any punter worth his salt can think that he ran to form at Punchestown.

It is odd. Granit Jack was in much the same mould as Neptune Collonges, but improved for the step back in trip. I would think that the QM would completely take him off his feet, this year at least. Will be difficult to place. Cant see him being up to QM standard. Wouldnt be surprised to see Neptune Collonges pay a few visits to Ireland this year.

Its easy for you to say that now re BJK after the woeful season he had, but not many were saying that before the start of season? He was so highly regarded by most people after novice season and a miles better horse at relative stages than WL imo. BJK was 5-2 to win stayers pre season, Wichita 8s, says it all to me? As it transpired this year, BJK had every problem going from back probs to interupted prepartion to ground excuses etc but no way you could say he wouldnt have beaten Nicanor and Denman when on peak of his form in Sun Ali (Refinement in 3rd wasnt in same class as BJK). I know WL had formlines to beat the first two in Ballymore but still not convinced he would of on day! Massinis Maguire ran above himself imo on the day and Tiday Bay showed improved form on the better ground than previously. Also thought it was a bit of a funny race, mainly due to the way McCoy rode Aran so averagely.
To sum up novice seasons-BJK much classier but WL showed much more stamina. Both won average Brit insurances as short priced favs in totally different styles. BJK had a very poor following season (for various reasons) and definately not a true stayer whereas WL will stay all day but I wonder if he will have the class to stay in contention at vital stage. Time will tell and I may change my mind, but at this stage I predict he'll have a difficult season before going chasing. By the way I won on WL four times out of four(2 bumpers + 2nov hurds), which is a very rare record so in no way I don't like the horse, just stating what I think! I was a bit gutted not backing him in the Brit mind you! Putting it down to my liver packing in on the Friday of festival!

Dont agree with all the opinions about running above yourself. Of course it can happen? Just look at yourself in everyday life? E.g I played a round of golf like I never had before a few weeks ago and prob never will again. And Ive also seen athletes put in exceptional times which they just cant seem to get too on other days. Its not just down to the conditions but how you perform on the day. Now you may say thats natural ability, but the fact that you can rarely reach that levels consistently shows that you are actually performing above yourself. I'm fairly certain Sublimity was similair in champion. I would be very surprised if horse is actually as good as he looked again, but he was very impressive on the day. Certainly wouldn't consider any Pipe horses when looking for examples. We all know what he was up to on one off jobs.

Sir Denman

Brightside- Yeh Sir Denman in a different class to Neptunes, maybe Neptunes will be sent for the ones Denman isn't though, in the hope he can sneak one!

Mr Brightside

Crumbs wrote:

Looking forward to seeing Glencove Marina over fences. Think they're going down the Arkle route with him, so we may not see him at his best until the following season when he goes over further.

Hope to see Nicanor and Mr Nosie retain their ability and progress as chasers but we all know how a serious injury can affect a horse's career.

Do you think that all 3 will go chasing? And would all 3 go down the arkle route? 1 novice chaser off interest to me is Arrive Sir Clive,can you give me your thoughts on him crumbs and anyone else for that matter?

Sir Denman

knighted wrote:

i had heard that accordian etoile was back from injury and might reappear at the open in nov -

And? Cant jump fences, crook trainer. I suppose he might go back over hurdles but wasnt top class there either.

Mr Brightside

Sir Denman wrote:

Brightside- Yeh Sir Denman in a different class to Neptunes, maybe Neptunes will be sent for the ones Denman isn't though, in the hope he can sneak one!

Dont expect Sir Denman to run in any handicaps lol!

Mr Brightside

mdwexford wrote:

Im firmly in the belief that on a given day a horse is capable of running far above its natural ability. I mean look at Contrabands Arkle, nothing he did before or after it was within pounds of that run. But that day he travelled like a dream, tanking along and absolutely bolted up in the hottest race of the year. Strange results do happen and i think last years Sup Nov was one of them.

Totally agree md! Love your quote 'that day he travelled like a dream'you dont get to see or hear many pipe 'pigs' travel like that?

Crumbs

Mr Brightside wrote:

Do you think that all 3 will go chasing? And would all 3 go down the arkle route? 1 novice chaser off interest to me is Arrive Sir Clive,can you give me your thoughts on him crumbs and anyone else for that matter?

Nicanor is a big horse, made for chasing and is likely to go for the 2m4f to 3m novice chases but the stable also has Aran Concerto for those races. Mr Nosie is a point-to-point winner and I suspect will be sent over fences too but is more likely to go in the shorter races. All that is assuming that either get back to the track.

Willie Mullins is quoted as saying that Glencove Marina will go down the 2m novice chasing route next season.

Arrive Sir Clive is another I really like. His 4 hurdle runs (3 of which were very good) were all run on desperate ground and his trainer kept saying that he would much prefer good ground. There's a lot more to come from him. I don't know what his best distance is going to be though. I imagine they'll keep him at the shorter trips although he did win a 3m point-to-point.

mdwexford

Sir Denman wrote:

Its easy for you to say that now re BJK after the woeful season he had, but not many were saying that before the start of season? He was so highly regarded by most people after novice season and a miles better horse at relative stages than WL imo. BJK was 5-2 to win stayers pre season, Wichita 8s, says it all to me? As it transpired this year, BJK had every problem going from back probs to interupted prepartion to ground excuses etc but no way you could say he wouldnt have beaten Nicanor and Denman when on peak of his form in Sun Ali (Refinement in 3rd wasnt in same class as BJK). I know WL had formlines to beat the first two in Ballymore but still not convinced he would of on day! Massinis Maguire ran above himself imo on the day and Tiday Bay showed improved form on the better ground than previously. Also thought it was a bit of a funny race, mainly due to the way McCoy rode Aran so averagely.
To sum up novice seasons-BJK much classier but WL showed much more stamina. Both won average Brit insurances as short priced favs in totally different styles. BJK had a very poor following season (for various reasons) and definately not a true stayer whereas WL will stay all day but I wonder if he will have the class to stay in contention at vital stage. Time will tell and I may change my mind, but at this stage I predict he'll have a difficult season before going chasing. By the way I won on WL four times out of four(2 bumpers + 2nov hurds), which is a very rare record so in no way I don't like the horse, just stating what I think! I was a bit gutted not backing him in the Brit mind you! Putting it down to my liver packing in on the Friday of festival!

Dont agree with all the opinions about running above yourself. Of course it can happen? Just look at yourself in everyday life? E.g I played a round of golf like I never had before a few weeks ago and prob never will again. And Ive also seen athletes put in exceptional times which they just cant seem to get too on other days. Its not just down to the conditions but how you perform on the day. Now you may say thats natural ability, but the fact that you can rarely reach that levels consistently shows that you are actually performing above yourself. I'm fairly certain Sublimity was similair in champion. I would be very surprised if horse is actually as good as he looked again, but he was very impressive on the day.

I agree 100% with this post, rare for me

mdwexford

Crumbs wrote:

Nicanor is a big horse, made for chasing and is likely to go for the 2m4f to 3m novice chases but the stable also has Aran Concerto for those races. Mr Nosie is a point-to-point winner and I suspect will be sent over fences too but is more likely to go in the shorter races. All that is assuming that either get back to the track.

Willie Mullins is quoted as saying that Glencove Marina will go down the 2m novice chasing route next season.

Arrive Sir Clive is another I really like. His 4 hurdle runs (3 of which were very good) were all run on desperate ground and his trainer kept saying that he would much prefer good ground. There's a lot more to come from him. I don't know what his best distance is going to be though. I imagine they'll keep him at the shorter trips although he did win a 3m point-to-point.

I think Nicanor is a ball of speed and he travels so strongly in his races i cannot see him over 3 miles. Personally i would love to see him line up in a 2 mile hurdle race on his return. He has the form of a world beater and the Sunalliance (im too old for that Ballymore rubbish ) has been a much better breeding ground for future Champion Hurdlers than the Supreme Novices in recent years. If not definitely an Arkle horse in my eyes.

Also Aran Concerto is a pig who will be ridiculously short all season because Meade hyped him up as per usual a la Sweet Wake.

Morgans

Sir Denman wrote:

Its easy for you to say that now re BJK after the woeful season he had, but not many were saying that before the start of season? He was so highly regarded by most people after novice season and a miles better horse at relative stages than WL imo. BJK was 5-2 to win stayers pre season, Wichita 8s, says it all to me? As it transpired this year, BJK had every problem going from back probs to interupted prepartion to ground excuses etc but no way you could say he wouldnt have beaten Nicanor and Denman when on peak of his form in Sun Ali (Refinement in 3rd wasnt in same class as BJK). I know WL had formlines to beat the first two in Ballymore but still not convinced he would of on day! Massinis Maguire ran above himself imo on the day and Tiday Bay showed improved form on the better ground than previously. Also thought it was a bit of a funny race, mainly due to the way McCoy rode Aran so averagely.
To sum up novice seasons-BJK much classier but WL showed much more stamina. Both won average Brit insurances as short priced favs in totally different styles. BJK had a very poor following season (for various reasons) and definately not a true stayer whereas WL will stay all day but I wonder if he will have the class to stay in contention at vital stage. Time will tell and I may change my mind, but at this stage I predict he'll have a difficult season before going chasing. By the way I won on WL four times out of four(2 bumpers + 2nov hurds), which is a very rare record so in no way I don't like the horse, just stating what I think! I was a bit gutted not backing him in the Brit mind you! Putting it down to my liver packing in on the Friday of festival!

Dont agree with all the opinions about running above yourself. Of course it can happen? Just look at yourself in everyday life? E.g I played a round of golf like I never had before a few weeks ago and prob never will again. And Ive also seen athletes put in exceptional times which they just cant seem to get too on other days. Its not just down to the conditions but how you perform on the day. Now you may say thats natural ability, but the fact that you can rarely reach that levels consistently shows that you are actually performing above yourself. I'm fairly certain Sublimity was similair in champion. I would be very surprised if horse is actually as good as he looked again, but he was very impressive on the day. Certainly wouldn't consider any Pipe horses when looking for examples. We all know what he was up to on one off jobs.

i think BJK could well have won the SAH the year before last, I dont think Denman was at his best that day. Nicholls had him right around christmas and didnt really get him back at Bangor or at Chelt. I thought bjk's Brit was piss poor and didnt show me anything to deserve the high profile he received. He of course had the potential. WL is a different horse completely, and was beaten at a sharper Liverpool subsequently.

I think the best way of viewing horse racing form is to judge what a horse is capable of, and then try to evaluate what are the possibilities of running to his best. You said "Its not just down to the conditions but how you perform on the day." I cant see how it is. How you perform is down to the conditions, mentaility, physical condition. A million different reasons really. In general, top class horses are more reliable and run close to their best more often. Poorer horses are more unreliable. You are capable of matching your best golfing score again. However, because of whatever variables, the chances of it happening may be slim, but you are definitely capable of repeating and possibly bettering it. I don't believe in fluke results, and cant see why any punter would. You do get horses that do run too bad to be true, but I think in general, writing off results as flukes, its the way out for punters who dont really want to do the study.

Morgans

mdwexford wrote:

I think Nicanor is a ball of speed and he travels so strongly in his races i cannot see him over 3 miles. Personally i would love to see him line up in a 2 mile hurdle race on his return. He has the form of a world beater and the Sunalliance (im too old for that Ballymore rubbish ) has been a much better breeding ground for future Champion Hurdlers than the Supreme Novices in recent years. If not definitely an Arkle horse in my eyes.

Also Aran Concerto is a pig who will be ridiculously short all season because Meade hyped him up as per usual a la Sweet Wake.

The last two champion hurdlers ran in the Supreme Novice hurdle.

Hope Nicanor comes back. I cant see him being quick enough for an Arkle.

Aran Concerto is still one of the best long term chasing prospects in training. I agree with Sir Denman that McCoy didnt give him a great ride in at Chelt, and it is interesting that he thought that he would benefit from stepping down in trip. For a horse that promises to stay 3m, it was an interesting comment. Cannot see how any punter can call him a pig. He ran on well at Chelt, didnt shirk the issue, just wasnt good enough, and didnt jump well enough on the day. I wouldnt back any novice chaser at too short odds, but he is still one of the best long term chasing prospects in training.

Mr Brightside

mdwexford wrote:

I think Nicanor is a ball of speed and he travels so strongly in his races i cannot see him over 3 miles. Personally i would love to see him line up in a 2 mile hurdle race on his return. He has the form of a world beater and the Sunalliance (im too old for that Ballymore rubbish ) has been a much better breeding ground for future Champion Hurdlers than the Supreme Novices in recent years. If not definitely an Arkle horse in my eyes.

Also Aran Concerto is a pig who will be ridiculously short all season because Meade hyped him up as per usual a la Sweet Wake.

Can we all forget about aran concerto as hes out for the season!

Morgans

Mr Brightside wrote:

Can we all forget about aran concerto as hes out for the season!

Really, that's disappointing. Meade is jinxed.

mdwexford

Morgans wrote:

The last two champion hurdlers ran in the Supreme Novice hurdle.

Hope Nicanor comes back. I cant see him being quick enough for an Arkle.

Aran Concerto is still one of the best long term chasing prospects in training. I agree with Sir Denman that McCoy didnt give him a great ride in at Chelt, and it is interesting that he thought that he would benefit from stepping down in trip. For a horse that promises to stay 3m, it was an interesting comment. Cannot see how any punter can call him a pig. He ran on well at Chelt, didnt shirk the issue, just wasnt good enough, and didnt jump well enough on the day. I wouldnt back any novice chaser at too short odds, but he is still one of the best long term chasing prospects in training.

True but i still think the longer race is always the stronger and provides better long term prospects in general.

I disagree, i think he is a complete bridle horse who will not battle and if he was not good enough to get a lot closer in what was a poor renewal of the Sunalliance i fail to see how he is that good a prospect. Still dissapointing hes out though, i hadnt heard anything about that.