Poker + Lotto

The_Daddy_H

I'm curious, do any of you poker players play the lotto?

5starpool

Only when it's a big jackpot. I have played the last 3 times, but I rarely do it otherwise. It's like playing slot machines, a waste of money generally.

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

The_Daddy_H

Sure its -EV at the end of the day. Like if you play the lotto forever.

karlh

I've never played the Lotto in my life but is a rollover not major +ev considering all the losing tickets from previous weeks are void?

Dub13

I don't understand all this lark about people only doing the lotto when its a big jackpot,would the normal 2 million not do...?

I very rarely play it,what are the odds again 1/8million or something.

johnnysmurfman

And the award for the most pointless and ridiculous thread of the year goes to..............................?

Iago

Dub13 wrote:

I don't understand all this lark about people only doing the lotto when its a big jackpot,would the normal 2 million not do...?

I very rarely play it,what are the odds again 1/8million or something.

It's not that 2 million wouldn't do, but from an odds point of view it's -EV until the jackpot goes above 7 million. After that the potential winnings are higher than the odds of winning so your euro is well spent.

I don't normally play but I've played the last 3 and will play until this one is won.

Tar.Aldarion

No, never.

5starpool

Dub13 wrote:

I don't understand all this lark about people only doing the lotto when its a big jackpot,would the normal 2 million not do...?

I very rarely play it,what are the odds again 1/8million or something.

2 million is a trifling amount. I wouldn't get out of bed for it.

The_Daddy_H

Do you really think you should make EV calculations on winning the lotto, the odds on winning are so small.........?

Dub13

Iago wrote:

It's not that 2 million wouldn't do, but from an odds point of view it's -EV until the jackpot goes above 7 million. After that the potential winnings are higher than the odds of winning so your euro is well spent.

I understand that aspect but when the odds are so high its a bit pointless IMO,its not like you have a 2/1 chance of making the nut flush.

Dub13

On a side note,does anybody do it in the bookies...?

The_Daddy_H

Dub13 wrote:

I understand that aspect but when the odds are so high its a bit pointless IMO,its not like you have a 2/1 chance of making the nut flush.

This is really the sort of debate I was hoping to spark off. Any other opinions on this?

karlh

Ronan Collins was a much better dealer. That new tramp isn't getting a tip off me.

Tar.Aldarion

The_Daddy_H wrote:

This is really the sort of debate I was hoping to spark off. Any other opinions on this?

'The lotto is for people that don't know maths' is how I believe it goes.
It's throwing away your money. How about you give me your money every week and i'll pay out if you win.

Dub13

I always wanted to be the independent adjucator for one draw,don't ask me why I was a bit of a strange child.

Warper

Of course Lotto has a negative EV but who cares. It is not about the odds come on - it is a pure lucky dip - anyways poker players need a bit of gamble to succeed.

The_Daddy_H

So would it be fair to say there are many poker players here who dont do the lotto when its -EV but would in the unusual situations when it becomes +EV?

Tar.Aldarion

When is it be +ev?

Shadowless

The Daddy H wrote:

So would it be fair to say there are many poker players here who dont do the lotto when its -EV but would in the unusual situations when it becomes +EV?

More or less. I never did the lotto before til last night. I worked it out roughly and the jackpot needs to be more than 12 million for it to be +EV. i'm also picking numbers skewed towards the 45 end as there's less chance of a split.

The_Daddy_H

Shadowless wrote:

More or less. I never did the lotto before til last night. I worked it out roughly and the jackpot needs to be more than 12 million for it to be +EV. i'm also picking numbers skewed towards the 45 end as there's less chance of a split.

When you're talking about such small probabilities does it really make a difference?

If it was +.00000000001 EV would you do it?

Shadowless

I dunno, probably. If you go through life making +EV decisions you'll more than likely turn a profit overall regardless of the odds. Surely it doesn't matter that you can't do the lotto 8 million times. Only my gut feeling mind...

Dub13

Shadowless wrote:

I dunno, probably. If you go through life making +EV decisions you'll more than likely turn a profit overall regardless of the odds. Surely it doesn't matter that you can't do the lotto 8 million times. Only my gut feeling mind...

The whole point of life is to enjoy it have a good time etc not to turn a profit

Ste05

The_Daddy_H wrote:

So would it be fair to say there are many poker players here who dont do the lotto when its -EV but would in the unusual situations when it becomes +EV?

I only ever do it when it gets over 6m or so, I'm not sure of the exact amount it needs to get to to become +EV, but this week it certainly is and I usually throw €20 or so into it....

Shadowless

Dub13 wrote:

The whole point of life is to enjoy it have a good time etc not to turn a profit

What I meant to say is that if I take any edge I can no matter how small whenever it's presented (and as long as it's within my bankroll) then that should be profitable.

Maybe the crux of the matter is whether anyone has a large enough roll to exploit the +ev ness of large lotto jackpots.


I mean if I was a billionaire and playing the lotto was +ev (and if I was bothered considering I'm a billionaire and all) then I'd just pick every combination and make a risk free profit. Arbitrage baby!!!

Macspower

The_Daddy_H wrote:

I'm curious, do any of you poker players play the lotto?

No but I've played poker in the SE.... is that not the same?

Jesus Wept

Dub13 wrote:

I don't understand all this lark about people only doing the lotto when its a big jackpot,would the normal 2 million not do...?

I very rarely play it,what are the odds again 1/8million or something.

1 line gives you

1 chance in 5,245,786

Dub13 wrote:

I always wanted to be the independent adjucator for one draw,don't ask me why I was a bit of a strange child.

Getting a job with KPMG would be a start.

Ste05

Shadowless wrote:

I mean if I was a billionaire and playing the lotto was +ev (and if I was bothered considering I'm a billionaire and all) then I'd just pick every combination and make a risk free profit. Arbitrage baby!!!

And then just pray it isn't split... :rolleyes:

Tar.Aldarion

The-Rigger wrote:

1 line gives you

1 chance in 5,245,786

Nah
Match 6: 8,145,060/1
Match 5 + Bonus: 1,357,510/1
Match 5: 35,724/1
Match 4 + Bonus: 14,290/1
Match 4: 772/1
Match 3 + Bonus: 579/1
Match 3: 48/1

Shadowless

The-Rigger wrote:

1 line gives you

1 chance in 5,245,786

That's what I thought too til yesterday.
Apparently there's 45 numbers in the lotto now not 42 :rolleyes:

So it's 1 chance in 8,145,060