Simple flop decision?

ozpoker

Here's a hand I played in the SE €200 last Saturday.

Situation; 7 players remain, 7th pays ~€450, 1st €3750. Blinds 1000/2000/200

UTG, TAG and boardsie (40K) opens for 7K. Folded to me (100K and a LAG image I suspect) in the CO, and I make it 21K with KK. Folded to UTG who dwells for quite some time and calls.

Flop: A97r, UTG checks.

What do you do and what's your plan for the rest of the hand if you check?

-Oz-

LuckyLloyd

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jimmii

He only has 19k back right? If you bet he'll only call with hands your behind where as checking and calling means he can do it with a few you beat. Question is why does a TAG put in over half their stack pre-flop and not just shove it. The most obvious reason would seem to be that they have AA and think you will fold for the other 19k I would have thought any other hand would have just put it in pre-flop. Only other thing might have been if they were going to do a stop and go and for someone reason the board stopped them doing it.

Ste05

Yeah, I probably go with Lloyd's line too. Check it down, push on River, he's never folding an A so might as well give him a chance to put his money in first, you can NEVER fold though...

Washout

seems like villian is TT-JJ.

but why not shove with either of these hands pf?

check down is right now though. and as everyone says u cant fold to a shove.

jimmii

Is there any chance someone is willing to fold to leave themselves 19k back and try sneak into 6th? Otherwise I just don't get the flat call pre-flop at all.

Washout

jimmii wrote:

Is there any chance someone is willing to fold to leave themselves 19k back and try sneak into 6th? Otherwise I just don't get the flat call pre-flop at all.

alot of players in villians spot just believe to themseves that hero will not fold to a shove so call is their best option. thinking is theya re stuill in the tournie if they have to fold a medium pair to high cards on the board.

LuckyLloyd

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Ace2007

if he only has 19k left behind, and he bets the turn - ur going to call - right?
therefore u might as well bet the flop - every possiblity that he could have a pocket pair, like 10's or jack's or Queen's and hence is scared of the Ace, and will probably fold to a bet. checking the flop, then allows his to chance to catch up.

Washout

LuckyLloyd wrote:

He should shove though if he is continuing with the hand. Leaving 19k behind is soooo very, very bad.

oh i hundred percent agree with you dude.

against Oz, with Villians stack what hand range should you shove

LuckyLloyd

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LuckyLloyd

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valor

i would just shove preflop

Washout

valor wrote:

i would just shove preflop

Im wondering who the boardster is who didnt now.

I can only think of one but not sure if he went that deep.

White Knight

valor wrote:

i would just shove preflop

Washout wrote:

Im wondering who the boardster is who didnt now.

I can only think of one but not sure if he went that deep.

Oz should have pushed preflop

Ace2007

LuckyLloyd wrote:

No. That is very wrong. If he flatcalled pre, he may be bad enough to fold here. And if we are ahead he is drawing to 2 outs / a wierd five outer / or runner, runner. Therefore, we aren't worried about stopping him catching up. We just want to give him the greatest amount of rope to hang himself with a hand we beat.

ok, i accept ur point of view, my biggest problem when playing is, i'm too tight- and cautious, for example, i prob would fold the KK there if he pushed,

jimmii

No way you can fold his all in bet your getting more than 3/1 to call!

Ace2007

like i said, and most ppl who know my tournament play..i'm tight- therefore the only way that i would find myself not folding would be, to bet the flop and call his reraise...otherwise i would fold...

jimmii

How much are you betting on the flop that allows them to re-raise?

Ace2007

lol - ok i didn't read the OP correctly... and on second thoughts, i would probably check - but i would still throw it away if he bet it.. but its hard to say when i'm not sittin there at the table-

Hectorjelly

Ace2007 wrote:

lol - ok i didn't read the OP correctly... and on second thoughts, i would probably check - but i would still throw it away if he bet it.. but its hard to say when i'm not sittin there at the table-

lol indeed

ozpoker

I wasn't sure whether this would generate much discussion or not. I thought the villain massively misplayed his hand also, so I'll let him identify himself if he'd like. I'm very interested in how he was thinking during this hand.

The main reason that I think this is an interesting hand is because it's one of those milestone hands for me where the "old" me would have done one thing and the "new" me makes a different play. To cut the suspense, I jammed on the flop and the villain folded (!), and showed QQ.

The reasons to check it to the river are very eloquently explained by Lloyd in the first response to my post, and this is the essence of "exploitive" play: analyze the situation and maximize your EV according to the range of hands you put your opponent on. But about a year ago, I became convinced that striving for "optimal" play was a superior approach.

It's way beyond the scope of this little explanation to describe what this means, but suffice it to say that it involves balancing your plays such that you are always a threat to have the nuts no matter what betting line you choose. I've found that focusing on my betting ranges and betting lines this way continually puts my opponents to difficult decisions.

In this particular case, when I raised to 21K preflop, I was putting the villain to the test for his stack. The fact that he didn't cooperate and only called preflop doesn't change my strategy at all. When he checked the flop, I jammed, not because that was the best +EV move exploitively (it wasn't), but because I jam that flop with 100% of my range. The only information the villain really has there was that i liked my enough preflop to raise him. Nothing else.

Anyway, I appreciate all the comments (especially from Lloyd, my nemesis ).

-Oz-

White Knight

hmmm If you push preflop you probably get all his chips.

Doing so on the flop will only get called with a hand that is probably ahead of you .. i.e any A or set?

Ste05

The thing is, all that is lovely and sounds nice, but when there's less than a 1/2 pot bet left, don't worry about all this meta-game crap.

Live tournament players aren't Durrr or sbrugby who will look for exploitable tendancies etc. you actually probably cost yourself $$ by getting too fancy.

RedJoker

Ace2007 wrote:

ok, i accept ur point of view, my biggest problem when playing is, i'm too tight- and cautious, for example, i prob would fold the KK there if he pushed,

That's weak tight, not tight and cautious.

Hectorjelly

Sorry oz, but I think thats just silly. You say you raised preflop to put him to the test for his stack. Thats just gibberish. You have KK, so what you want him to do is either commit his entire stack with a worse hand, or fold a better or split hand; since he is never folding AA or KK all you need to be concerned with is getting called by worse. What you specifically want to do is get him to commit his entire stack to the hand without even noticing it, not give him some sort of test.

Then on the flop you made a huge mistake that could potentially cost you much more than just the 20k he folded. You have a chance to trap someone with a worse hand and knock them out, but you ended up helping to play perfectly against you. Thats bad poker! Worry about the meta implications of a hand after you play it, not during.

LuckyLloyd

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ozpoker

Ste05 wrote:

The thing is, all that is lovely and sounds nice, but when there's less than a 1/2 pot bet left, don't worry about all this meta-game crap.

Live tournament players aren't Durrr or sbrugby who will look for exploitable tendancies etc. you actually probably cost yourself $$ by getting too fancy.

That's the whole point, the decision to play for his stack was made preflop. My postflop jam was just a continuation of that decision. I may have cost myself cEV in this particular hand, but my preflop range is probably 66+, ATs, KJs, AQ, KQ, QJs. Against that range his flop equity is 47%, making his fold getting 3:1 a pretty bad mistake.

And, no, I don't play against Durrr or Chip Reese yet, but I'm developing the chops to try to some day.

-Oz-

Ste05

ozpoker wrote:

That's the whole point, the decision to play for his stack was made preflop. My postflop jam was just a continuation of that decision. I may have cost myself cEV in this particular hand, but my preflop range is probably 66+, ATs, KJs, AQ, KQ, QJs. Against that range his flop equity is 47%, making his fold getting 3:1 a pretty bad mistake.

And, no, I don't play against Durrr or Chip Reese yet, but I'm developing the chops to try to some day.

-Oz-

Your decision was, his obviously wasn't because he didn't push, therefore you need to allow him to put his chips in with worse, not as HJ so eloquently put it, to "give him some sort of test".

Play your hand and each decision to maximise cEV and $EV this push minimised both.

ozpoker

Well, I think I've said everything I can intelligently say on this. My concluding comment is that I'm fully cognizant that I cost myself (c/$)EV with this play with the particular hand values, but I would have had the exact same line with JJ (or QJs for that matter). If that were my holding, I would have been a genius, right?

Nonetheless, I do appreciate the comments and I'm eagerly awaiting the opportunity to match wits with you all soon!

-Oz-

Ste05

But then you would have been bluffing and possibly got a better hand to fold. A good result, in this situation nothing good could ever happen. Don't worry about your range of hands that you think your opponent might put you on, (you can't know this there's farrrrr too many variables) etc. just worry about his range of hands and how they play against your actual Hand, then look at the flop and decide what is the most profitable line. This isn't a deep stack cash game hand, it's a 20BB tournament hand that is re-raised pre-flop and somehow didn't manage to get AI there.

Hectorjelly

ozpoker wrote:

Well, I think I've said everything I can intelligently say on this. My concluding comment is that I'm fully cognizant that I cost myself (c/$)EV with this play with the particular hand values, but I would have had the exact same line with JJ (or QJs for that matter). If that were my holding, I would have been a genius, right?

Nonetheless, I do appreciate the comments and I'm eagerly awaiting the opportunity to match wits with you all soon!

-Oz-

IF YOU HAD JJ OR EVEN BETTER 72o THEN YOUR PLAY WOULD MAKE SENSE, BUT YOU DIDNT, YOU HAD KK! YOU CANT PUSH ALL IN WITH TOP PAIR ON THE RIVER AND THEN CLAIM YOU WERE JUST BALANCING FOR THE TIMES YOU HAD THE NUTS, YOUR OPPONENTS SUCK AND YOU DONT NEED TO BALANCE THAT MUCH, ESPECIALLY NOT IN RIDICULOUS SPOTS LIKE THIS WHICH HARDLY EVER ARISE!


sorry for the capitals but I managed take 2 awful beats whilst composing it and felt like venting!

sikes

shove preflop. thats what you would have done with AK, so theres some balancing for you.

ollyk1

sikes wrote:

shove preflop. thats what you would have done with AK, so theres some balancing for you.

Lmao!! A very good point Simon, the time to merge the range was preflop!!


It's probably the reason the guy didn't push. He felt a monster was out there but didn't have the discipline to fold QQ so he peeled off a flop and then finally found the agonising fold thanks to your helpful push.

Lest I be accused of coming across all superior or that I think there is only one way to play a hand I could embaressingly try to explain the details of a hand where I call off a rock on the river with KK on a QQT22 board last night (I took a passive line in order to encourage action from hands I beat and it went horribly wrong )

padser

Oz - there is a really simply logic as to why your play is a bad idea.

If you are going to jam pre flop regardless of what comes on the flop (which obviously you were as an A was the worse possible flop for you) then effectively you allowed him odds of 3:1 by calling for half his stack preflop.

kryogen

LuckyLloyd wrote:

Check behind on the flop. There is very little value in betting here IMO as he should only get the rest in with a hand that is beating you (btw, his flatcall of your re - raise is mind boggingly bad).

When you do this, you will be telegraphing your hand has a pocket pair. So he will now think he has some FE and stick the rest of the tank in with his entire range. It will be 19k for you to call with 46,400 in the middle. Don't ever fold to a shove.

I would also check behind on the turn btw - basically just give him the opportunity to bluff the rest in. If he doesn't bite - stick him in on the river anyway.

his play p/f is absolutely shocking....i doubt hes TAG he probably tight passive by the looks of it and has a hand between TT-QQ.... it seems like a weak player, i agree with llyods summing up here, the only cards that would worry me are Q's or J's really, i check to river then set him in, you can never fold anyway to be honest. and he will be unlikely to call his last 19k because of the ace on board as he is sooooo weak! i cant believe he flat calls just over half his stack p/f!! does he think he leaves himself some fold equity??? shocking play... check flop check turn, set him in on river.... maybe you'll get lucky and if he doesnt attempt to bluff at it he may misread your hand for 99 lol

BobSloane

sikes wrote:

shove preflop. thats what you would have done with AK, so theres some balancing for you.

yeah he's raised UTG and shortstacked, and you say your image is LAG - he's got to have some sort of hand and you've got KK. This hand seems to have been overcomplicated

kryogen

just read up the way at the rest of the thread and the outcome.... my post may be irrelative now haha, i have to start reading everything before replying!! meh, i stand by it, and i was right anyway:p

ozpoker

sikes wrote:

shove preflop. thats what you would have done with AK, so theres some balancing for you.

You can believe that if I would jam here with AK, I would with any hand I'd raise with. But since I'd make it 21K with AA, I'd make it 21K with any hand I raise with here.

Others earlier in the thread said if I had jammed the villain would have called and paid me off, but I thought he understood that my raise to 21K was effectively a jam to him and that's why his decision was to jam or fold. When he chose to call, I was a little surprised to say the least.

-Oz-

sikes

the raise makes no sense in your words. If it was effectively a jam, why not jam? Its not like you have made a raise where he might think he has some FE or something. All it does is leave the door open for him to call and outflop you when you have other hands that you raise in this spot. Its terrible.

ozpoker

sikes wrote:

the raise makes no sense in your words. If it was effectively a jam, why not jam? Its not like you have made a raise where he might think he has some FE or something. All it does is leave the door open for him to call and outflop you when you have other hands that you raise in this spot. Its terrible.

While I didn't highlight the fact, I was in the CO preflop and had the tourney leader in the BB. Since I would lay down part of my range to a jam that sets me in, I have to make a standard raise here.

-Oz-

Gholimoli

OZ,
your posts on this page make no sense what so ever.
you may think that you have some how found some very advanced concept and applied it here but it reallity what you have done is made some very basic but big mistakes.

to say that your range was 66+,KQ,A or what ever you said it was and that you would shove with thoes and that's why you also shoved with KK just shows how your thinking is flawed.
read HJ posts again,read the past when he says the shove is a good play with JJ ,72 but not KK ,this is the concept you need to understand not some strange and not valid meta game theory.

sikes

ozpoker wrote:

While I didn't highlight the fact, I was in the CO preflop and had the tourney leader in the BB. Since I would lay down part of my range to a jam that sets me in, I have to make a standard raise here.

-Oz-

the BB is going to push AK, so folding anything after commiting half your stack would be crazy

ozpoker

sikes wrote:

the BB is going to push AK, so folding anything after commiting half your stack would be crazy

I had 100K, I only commited 21% of my stack.

-Oz-

sikes

ozpoker wrote:

I had 100K, I only commited 21% of my stack.

-Oz-

right. my bad.

bottom feeder

Just after seeing this thread now and I’m the culprit in this hand – the TAG, LAG = DONK.

Yep I did misplay the hand and don’t mind saying so, not that it matters to much I had 26k left behind and know I should have pushed or folded pre-flop, calling the 21k was awful.
Didn’t leave myself with much of a chance by folding either but when the A came on the flop I didn’t have the balls to follow through – I know I know I know awful play, but hey you can only learn from your mistakes…….:(

All I can say is if OZ checked the flop he would have deffo got all my chips on the turn ‘Regardless’

Anyhow nice result OZ.

Lazare

ozpoker wrote:

I had 100K, I only commited 21% of my stack.

-Oz-

Oz, re your post upthread about not isolating because the CL was behind you, I figured you meant you were hoping he'd jam, and that was the reason you made a standard raise, but the above post leads me to believe you made a standard raise so you could get away if he jammed. Which was it? (the former I hope).

Ste05

Lazare wrote:

Which was it? (the former I hope).

I presume!! :eek: :eek:

ozpoker

Lazare wrote:

Oz, re your post upthread about not isolating because the CL was behind you, I figured you meant you were hoping he'd jam, and that was the reason you made a standard raise, but the above post leads me to believe you made a standard raise so you could get away if he jammed. Which was it? (the former I hope).

Not exactly. I wasn't trying to "trap" the tourney leader. The reason I made a normal raise as opposed to a jam here is to balance my range. There are some hands I would raise and fold to the tourney leader's jam, but rest assured, KK isn't one of them. AQ or TT probably are.

I still believe Wes made a very bad laydown, even with the scary Ace on board. When he just called my preflop raise, I thought for sure he was going to attempt a stop and go (which wouldn't have worked on me, even with an A out there).

I see that no one really understands my rational for my play. I'll make one more attempt at an explanation. The main objections (from GM, HJ, and LL) are that my play was great if I had JJ but horrible for a holding of KK. The results and Wes' admission that I could have gotten his chips on the turn seem to bear this position out. But just as we know that Results Oriented Thinking is something to overcome for specific hand situations, the same erroneous thinking applies to hand range vs hand range situations (meaning the play can be correct regardless of the actual hand ranges in play).

When I talk about balancing my range, I didn't make this stuff up (I'm not smart enough to come up with this stuff on my own). I'm attempting (and perhaps failing) to apply the ideas expressed by Chen and Ankenman in The Mathematics of Poker of working towards unexploitable play. In their book, IMO, they make a very convincing argument why becoming a master of exploitable play is extremely difficult, and why trying to develop an optimal approach is probably a better use of your time. It's way, way beyond the scope of this post for me to present these arguments, and I don't expect anyone to accept this at face value, just believe me that going through the mental exercise of deciding for yourself will pay great dividends.

Chris Ferguson says this in the recent Full Tilt Strategy Guide: "One of the most important principles in no-limit holdem is to conceal the strength of your hand. To do this, experienced players agree you need to mix up your play. Most people believe this means playing the same hand in different ways ... This is wrong! To conceal the strength of your hand, you need to play different hands the same way. [Emphasis in original] Once you decide you are going to play a hand, make the same bet whether it is the strongest hand you would play in that situation, like AA, or the weakest, like 76". He refers to this skill as "reading your own hand". Again, C&A go into much more detail how to approach this idea.

The whole motivation for posting this hand is that I finally had an AHA! moment at the table for this line of thinking when Wes checked when he was pot committed. I distinctly remember having a similar AHA! moment when I started incorporating my opponent's hand range judgments into my decision making process, an idea many of the skilled players here embrace. Thinking about your own hand ranges and "reading your own hand" is just the next level of thinking.

Good luck to all,

-Oz-

Hectorjelly

If the next level of thinking makes me play worse then Ill think Ill stick to this one!

Interesting thread though.

CaptainNemo

I find the meta-thinking very interesting here and I'm thinking of getting that book now. I don't think this thinking can possibly apply to tourmaments in which most players don't know you and will never see you again, but if you're a regular and are building an image in peoples' minds then it's definitely to your benefit to play different hands the same way whether you have AA, 76 suited, or whether you hit or miss on the flop.

However the ultimate outcome of this line of thinking is trying to turn yourself into some kind of poker bot based on game theory mathematics. I don't know about you but I think there's more to poker than this and that's why Doyle Brunson has always been and will always be a more successful player than David Sklanksy no matter how many books the latter writes.

EDIT: I have to correct myself here. I just remembered that Brunson recommends playing this way in Super System, where you play the hand the same way and get all your chips in the middle whether you have a monster made hand or only a draw. So maybe it's just good play.

On a different note, I had a similar situation in a tourney with someone misplaying QQ against my AA. He raised 5xBB and I reraised to almost half of my (and his) stack. He thinks for ages and FLAT CALLS (what's the deal with people making this play with QQ? Are they waiting for a safe flop? Trying to catch a Q? What?)

Anyway the flop is K high, so he hasn't caught a Q and there is an overcard. So naturally he donks all the rest of his chips into the pot, I call and he hits a Q on the turn.

This isn't a bad beat story but a contribution to "People misplaying QQ". The preflop flat call for half one's stack is just about the worst way you could possibly play this hand.