Pretty horrid spot during the Macau Main Event

Flipper

I'm playing 12k. Villain is Mickste he also has 12k. He's playing extremely tight and has shown the ability to put down hands. My reputation would be LAG at this point. Marty Smyth is the UTG+1 player but he doesn't really matter here.

Blinds are 75/150 and I limp UTG with 7h7d. Marty calls and Mickste makes it 600 from the button. Both the blinds fold and both me and Marty call the 600.

Flop (2025) Qs7sJh

I check, as does Marty and Mickste bets 1,100. I'm not too fond of this board so I check raise to 3,100 and Marty folds. Mickste waits mabye 5-6 seconds before confidently moving all in. What would you do?

cardshark202

omg callcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcall

jhegarty

Flipper wrote:

I'm not too fond of this board

What sort of board do you want ?


Call call call call and cccccccccaaaaaaaaaallllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll

he is still going to be confident with AQ , QJ whats ahead that he will push with ?

58o

I'd put him on a set.
Then Ship

Lafortezza

I've never played with Mickste, but surely QQ or JJ gives a little bit more a performance than a 5 sec wait and a push.

poorbarman

being the eternal tourney donk that i am ,I would have called before he even got the chance to finish his sentence,if he turns over a set oh well,gg and all that.It really is an excellent chance to double up here.BTW i know the outcome of this.................

TheSpaniard

I guess his range doesnt extend much beyond AKs AQ AA KK QQ or JJ and I'd only be worried here really of JJ - you have played the hand passively and he cant really put you on better than KQ or AQ at best - you must call here and if he's ahead or sucks out on you then you consider yourself unlucky.

El Stuntman

call quicker than Authorzied won the Derby

(if you laid this down and he had JJ or QQ, then mega-kudos)

Macspower

having played many times with Mickste his range is now AQ AA KK QQ JJ.... I don't think he's pushing OTT against a LAG with QQ or JJ. I reckon he has AA or KK...

Doesn't really matter if he beats me here I'm going broke.

Mac

TheSpaniard

just read the post on your blog - I'm going out here unless I get a mega read off the guy

Flipper

I'm a big beleiver in the idea that you can't win a tourney during the first day and I also feel that doubling your stack does not double your chances at this stage. That said, here's what went through my mind....

I think he has one of 4 hands here: AsKs, AA, JJ or QQ. I'd like to think that KsTs is possible but I don't think it's included in this pre-flop raising range. I also think that Mick is good enough to pass AA or KK on this board to my raise.

I tanked this for probably 2 minutes and almost passed. The main reason that I considered folding was that as the board was so draw heavy, I can't but him on a hand that's beating me now all the time. Honestly, I felt he has AsKs 70% of the time here. If the flop were say 7JK rainbow, I'd find it much easier to put 77 down as I can now narrow his range to an overset a lot more often.

cardshark202

Flipper wrote:

I'm a big beleiver in the idea that you can't win a tourney during the first day and I also feel that doubling your stack does not double your chances at this stage. That said, here's what went through my mind....

I think he has one of 4 hands here: AsKs, AA, JJ or QQ. I'd like to think that KsTs is possible but I don't think it's included in this pre-flop raising range. I also think that Mick is good enough to pass AA or KK on this board to my raise.

I tanked this for probably 2 minutes and almost passed. The main reason that I considered folding was that as the board was so draw heavy, I can't but him on a hand that's beating me now all the time. Honestly, I felt he has AsKs 70% of the time here. If the flop were say 7JK rainbow, I'd find it much easier to put 77 down as I can now narrow his range to an overset a lot more often.

Your fold is absolutely terrible. I've played with Mick before, the last time I played with him he had trouble folding KJ preflop so I find it hard to think hes folding AA or KK here. In fact if he does, thats probably bad, I mean he's only losing to 77 here. I doubt most good players fold AA here, esp on such a draw-heavy board. I really can't say how awful this is.

TheSpaniard

I'm probably thinking AsKs also or AA - thats very unlucky

cardshark202

Also, lol donkaments

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

TheSpaniard

Flipper - may I take this opportunity to apoligise for a real asshole comment I made about you not playing in the Irish Open. I just thought that your reasons were stupid and that you were cutting your nose off to spite your face - anyway I am sorry for it. Iread your well and found it very interesting and you came across very well.

Flushdraw

I was talking to Mickste about this hand last night. If Mick has JJ or QQ so be it but he could just as easily have AA, KK, AKs or AJs (less likely)

Theres no other hands in his range here so i can see your thought process in contemplating a fold and i dont think its truly as awful as Cardshark says. Mick isnt going to p!ss about in a 1500 buyin by 4 betting this early on without a hand he is willing to go to a showdown with. He's also aware of the fact you limped UTG and check raised on the flop so he must put you on a very big hand.

Congrats on the 350 game btw

BigCityBanker

Set over set makes Baby Jesus cry.

RoundTower

I think you can find a fold here. Sometimes he will have a big wrap or straight+flush draw, maybe 2 pair+flush draw but more often he has a higher set. Even against AA and the nut flush draw, a likely hand for a tight player to raise preflop, you are not much worse than 50 50 especially if he also has a gutshot. It's an easy mistake to make though if you are used to hold'em, where you could never fold a set to this action.

Lazare

RoundTower wrote:

I think you can find a fold here. Sometimes he will have a big wrap or straight+flush draw, maybe 2 pair+flush draw but more often he has a higher set. Even against AA and the nut flush draw, a likely hand for a tight player to raise preflop, you are not much worse than 50 50 especially if he also has a gutshot. It's an easy mistake to make though if you are used to hold'em, where you could never fold a set to this action.

I'm guessing your taking the p1ss. You seem to be having great fun doing that lately.

Ollieboy

I think the question here is what he puts you on, what sort of hand would you limp with utg and what hand would you check raise with on the flop. You wouldn't limp utg to often with Aq and than call a raise etc. Also, with 2 face cards on the board, he as to be worried about you hitting 2 pair etc. Also, he would raise a bit more preflop with JJ as he wouldn't really want two caller, so I would expect a bigger raise preflop to narrow the field. So QQ here is a real possiblity. But if he puts you on Aq or QJ would he not just flat call with position and let you hang yourself on the turn? or if he thinks your flushing, than again there's enough in the middle. The more I think about it the more it feels like QQ

Tough fold, but I would believe I'm ahead here. Would expect to see a overpair or AK suit. 10% of the time maybe QQ, but I would really expect the flat call from a good player with QQ unless he thinks your flushing/drawing etc.

More I think about the more confused I am.lol

Tough position, but if he as QQ I think most players go bust here, defo go bust if this was a online game

jhegarty

RoundTower wrote:

straight+flush draw

AsKs - 32%
7d7h - 67%

RoundTower wrote:

maybe 2 pair+flush draw

Would have to be a back door flush draw so :
QdJs - 21%
7d7h - 78%

RoundTower wrote:

but more often he has a higher set.

Well you are stuffed there.... but if you fold sets , what can you call with ?

RoundTower wrote:

Even against AA and the nut flush draw

Again needs to be back door flush draw:
AhAs - 14%
7d7h - 85% (didn't think it would be that high)

sikes

Obv RT thinks this is a omaha hand, the clue is in his last sentence.

jhegarty

sikes wrote:

Obv RT thinks this is a omaha hand, the clue is in his last sentence.

ah, yes good point... his advise make lots more sense now....

Recon20k

58o wrote:

I'd put him on a set.
Then Ship

lmao... well said, and its exactly what i'd do.

mormank

so what actualy did happen here? i know a friend of mine was playin the last main event in the macau and raised, called re raise with jacks when it was down to 3 tables. Flop came Q J 3 rainbow. He bet out, raiser went all in. My m8 folded his set of jacks and showed only to be shown a set of Q's!!! Siad he had a good read on the guy tho. So what happened here?

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

Lazare

LuckyLloyd wrote:

That is a shocking fold.

Yeah, it really sucks balls alright

I love this 'I'd a good read that my middle set was no good'. BOLL0X. A bad fold that got lucky more like.

mormank

Haha lazare!! It wasnt me that folded middle set. It was my friend Ger Fitz and if you wanna insult him online when he doesnt even post on here go for it!! It was the last 3 tables of 1k event..big deal!! You've never made a big fold eh?? But it was a sick fold and i'll not have you sayin it was some1 gettin lucky. If it was a bad play by a bad player why would fold be the move!!! Bad players can't fold sets you dope!!

Lazare

I'm actually physically hurting from laughing at that post.

It's a bad fold because your friends opponent has AA or KK more often than QQ (most people don't push top set). With less than 30 players left in such a big event, folding middle set and passing a chance to double up is weak.

earthworms

how can you criticize the right move?

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

Lazare

earthworms wrote:

how can you criticize the right move?

It's not the right move.

LuckyLloyd

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MrPillowTalk

Never fold here.

earthworms

im sorry like but you really cant criticize what was an amazing fold. People in poker do it far too often, like if I call a guy's all in on the river with a pair of 2's and he starts givin out sh!t to me. You cant criticize a correct play

earthworms

i would never ever fold here i'm not saying I would but this guy apparantely had a strong read on the guy, AND MADE THE RIGHT FOLD. He was behind when he folded. I understand where ye're all coming from but it really does bug me when the right move is criticized

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

earthworms

LuckyLloyd wrote:

Well, I beg to differ. And I am criticising it. So we will probably have to agree to disagree.

aight

Lazare

earthworms wrote:

im sorry like but you really cant criticize what was an amazing fold. People in poker do it far too often, like if I call a guy's all in on the river with a pair of 2's and he starts givin out sh!t to me. You cant criticize a correct play

It seems like an amazing fold because luckily it was correct, but that's results based thinking. Read Lloyd's above post again, folding here is -EV.

I'm not saying your friend is a bad player, I don't know him, but this is a bad fold.



Edit, apologies Flipper for the derail.

earthworms

my friend??? I dunno who we're talking about. I think in these situations you have to consider the results because he got a strong read in the guy and correctly folded. If he folded cos he waqs sh!ttin his pants cos he was playin a 1k event then ya its the wrong fold.. Apparantely the guy had a strong read and i say great fold

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

bops

Flipper wrote:

I'm playing 12k. Villain is Mickste he also has 12k. He's playing extremely tight and has shown the ability to put down hands. My reputation would be LAG at this point. Marty Smyth is the UTG+1 player but he doesn't really matter here.

Blinds are 75/150 and I limp UTG with 7h7d. Marty calls and Mickste makes it 600 from the button. Both the blinds fold and both me and Marty call the 600.

Flop (2025) Qs7sJh

I check, as does Marty and Mickste bets 1,100. I'm not too fond of this board so I check raise to 3,100 and Marty folds. Mickste waits mabye 5-6 seconds before confidently moving all in. What would you do?

I am Mickste - i'm tight and look down at JJ/QQ on the button - 2 laggy player have limped, so i'll put in a decent raise.

Flop: ok i've hit my top/mid set on a very draw heavy board and they've checked it into me - i should bet sorta strong to find out where i'm at/take it down

Oh look i've been check raised by a good laggy player, i'll have to assume he had a big draw here, probably nut flush, maybe just oesd, if he actually has a good hand at present (eg tptk, aa kk) i have him crushed - i really don't need to go softly softly here, i know i'm ahead but my hand may be in danger if i play it slowly - push!!

i could find a fold here flipper, but what do i know? i'm rubbish

phantom_lord

snap call.

mormank

Can't believe my comment has drawn such aggressive replies... He had been playin with the guy for hours..i understand where laz and loyd are comin from of course, but work with me here for a second..

now, imagine a world where poker is played on a hand to hand basis against the same group of players and u folded raised and called on the strength of what you know about that one hand and not the million other hands u have played..be sweet wouldn't it??? extreme opposite situation i know, but what makes callin one player down with bottom pair in one situation but foldin it to another guy in another sitaution the right or wrong move?? are u sayin i should always fold bottom pair to a bet?

Lazare

mormank wrote:

Can't believe my comment has drawn such aggressive replies... He had been playin with the guy for hours..i understand where laz and loyd are comin from of course, but work with me here for a second..

now, imagine a world where poker is played on a hand to hand basis against the same group of players and u folded raised and called on the strength of what you know about that one hand and not the million other hands u have played..be sweet wouldn't it??? extreme opposite situation i know, but what makes callin one player down with bottom pair in one situation but foldin it to another guy in another sitaution the right or wrong move?? are u sayin i should always fold bottom pair to a bet?

Calling someone light is a completely different situation, and dependent on so many variables, such as image, read, pot odds, tells etc...
Your friends situation is a lot simpler. His opponent would play AA and KK the exact same way, and would have the same appearance of strenght as QQ. Your friend has to call because AA and KK are more likely than QQ, therefore calling has a +EV.

I didn't mean to offend, if I did, I apologise.

The_Chopper

Lazare wrote:

Calling someone light is a completely different situation, and dependent on so many variables, such as image, read, pot odds, tells etc...
Your friends situation is a lot simpler. His opponent would play AA and KK the exact same way, and would have the same appearance of strenght as QQ. Your friend has to call because AA and KK are more likely than QQ, therefore calling has a +EV.

I didn't mean to offend, if I did, I apologise.

I remember this hand actually - Ger went with a preflop read on the hand. He called a raise preflop with JJ as far as I can remember and had the guy on QQ preflop (this is very important). He had reasoning for it - I can't remember what, but had an excellent read on the guy - which went back to the day before. When the flop comes down with a Q it's irrelavant on what Ger is holding as he has put a guy on a specific hand. Ger is an amazing reader of the game, the best I've seen by far (that includes everyone that I've played with on this site) - and if he posted here a lot would be learnt from him by the average poster.

Anyway to win tournaments you have to trust your reads - you can't just change your read because you've flopped a bigger hand. Nobody can post here saying they haven't trusted their reads and it helped them to do well in the past, can they??

On a seperate note - you out of the 50 double chance mormank? Pro evo is a calling

Lazare

The_Chopper wrote:

I remember this hand actually - Ger went with a preflop read on the hand. He called a raise preflop with JJ as far as I can remember and had the guy on QQ preflop (this is very important). He had reasoning for it - I can't remember what, but had an excellent read on the guy -

X-ray glasses perhaps?

I'm not doubting the guys abilities, knowing he's behind pre-flop fair enough, but confidently narrowing it right down? Find out from him, and post it if you could, I'm intrigued.

The_Chopper

Lazare wrote:

X-ray glasses perhaps?

I'm not doubting the guys abilities, knowing he's behind pre-flop fair enough, but confidently narrowing it right down? Find out from him, and post it if you could, I'm intrigued.

Personally I'm never folding second set on that board - but then again i'm not the stuff legends are made off :cool:

I'll try find out from him alright

mormank

chopper explained it alot better than me.. i wouldn't have folded here at all. i'm not good enought to fold middle set on a 4 of a straght+flush board..but ger did here. and for ye to jus come on here and lightly comment that he was wrong is a bit hasty is all..obviously 95% of the time its a horrible fold..but haven't u ever folded top two against a set?? similar...

mdwexford

standard fold imo, not Flippers now the J-J one

Flippers i call, also standard funnily enough