FG leadership contest?

Our man in Havana

I see that Waterford upstart TD John Deasy has openly criticised Enda Kenny on his leadership. I wonder if Deasy will cause a leadership contest and force the Mayo man out of the job?

carlowboy

Deasy's just pissed because he was thrown from the front bench for smoking in the Dáil bar.

I wouldn't think Enda will resign but if he does, I reckon it will be between Brian Hayes and John Deasy.

Villain

If and I doubt very much there will a leadership challenge there would be very obviously only one winner i.e. Richard Bruton

Colonel Sanders

Enda has done wonder for this parties. It the lack of gains from the other 2 rainbow partners that has scuppered the challenge.

In the unlikely evnt of a change surely richard Bruton would be overwhelming favourite.

Vince135792003

In the next election, I'd have Bruton as the leader of FG. He comes across very well.

carlowboy

Irish1, what do you think of MJ getting such a high first preference?

Villain

Can't believe it tbh, he is useless as a local TD, obviously he got the areas party vote, the 2 Kilkenny FF TD's are a lot more likely to get any promotion so he won't have any real power and well imo he is just inept, at least we have 2 Carlow TD's now with Mary White joining MJ. If the Greens get in with FF then Carlow may benefit from her mandate.

BigTommyBomb

FG need somebody that can relate to the average thick Irish man on the street. A bumbling fool without a dress sense, thats what they need. You can trust a man like that.

carlowboy

Chances of Ayleward and McGuinness having promotion are null after their revolt a few years ago and when Bertie and McGuinness literally came to blows in a pub in KK. Bertie now refuses to go to Killkenny. As for MJ, I can't believe it! He's actually done nothing for the county. He hasn't found anything to replace the jobs lost in the sugar factory and there's no one in the IDA business park. Think we lost what could have been a future taoiseach in JP Phelan.


Back to the topic, don't you think Bruton's a bit old for a future taoiseach. Deasy and Brian Hayes are pretty young.

Villain

Bruton is the popular face of FG and as Bertie has shown thats what its all about for being Leader.

Dave!

I agree, there's no contest, it's gotta be Bruton

mike65

Agree.

Mike.

AidoCQS

You cannot flip/flop from leader to leader at every election, Kenny has developed pedigree from this event. Now watch the economy reset itself, and its going to look like he was right. Throw in Biffo to the next contest and FG has a real chance in the next one

irish1

irish1 wrote:

If the Greens get in with FF then Carlow may benefit from her mandate.

You forget about East Carlow and isn't Dick Roche looking after that

DeepBlue

There are people out there who think FG should replace Kenny as leader because he's got reddish hair :rolleyes: .
Such astute political analysis is probably valued elsewhere but most rational people would recognise that those people don't know what they're talking about and care less.

FG has shown a remarkable appetite for eating the party leader over the last 15 years but if they decided to ditch Kenny after he secured such a remarkable turnaround in the party fortunes the newcomer would wonder what he had to do to avoid a similar fate :eek: .

FG are in a new position now and have probably reached their high tide mark. Their challenge for the future is how to build on it. Also they have to recognise that, effectively, whether they have 31 seats or 51 seats they are still out of power so that will present problems in itself.

If Deasy became leader people would quite rightly say he's a complete muppet: exhibit A: smoking in the Dail bar after the smoking ban was introduced and exhibit B: criticising the party leader after he just oversaw a 20 seat gain for the party.

If Bruton became leader the same "astute" political analysts would be saying he's too grey, too short and only a farmer from Meath.

The problem isn't the leaders looks - it's that most people's political judgement is too shallow to look beyond the superficial and to examine any issues in any greater depth.

Villain

Well its very little of Carlow East Tristrame I live east of Tullow which is East Carlow and I am in the Carlow/Kilkenny constituency although a very small part of Tullow is in the Wicklow constituency but part of Tullow is in County Wicklow and Carlow town has the IDA park and best chance of job growth.

Seth Brundle

DeepBlue wrote:

If Deasy became leader people would quite rightly say he's a complete muppet: exhibit A: smoking in the Dail bar after the smoking ban was introduced and exhibit B: criticising the party leader after he just oversaw a 20 seat gain for the party.

The idiot also took pot shots at his leader aa few months ago - not a politically sensible idea in the run up to an election.

irish1

irish1 wrote:

Well its very little of Carlow East Tristrame I live east of Tullow which is East Carlow and I am in the Carlow/Kilkenny constituency although a very small part of Tullow is in the Wicklow constituency but part of Tullow is in County Wicklow and Carlow town has the IDA park and best chance of job growth.

Hmm Deirde if she got in might have had a luas from hacketstown to arklow on the greens shopping list-connectivity with Irish rail there to Rosslare and Dublin....purfect!
The Tinahely bypass might have got the chop to pay for that one.
That said the light rail line could have a carriage or two added to bring the sheep to kepak.

( I am of course being sarcastic obviously)

Our man in Havana

Tristrame wrote:

Hmm Deirde if she got in might have had a luas from hacketstown to arklow on the greens shopping list-connectivity with Irish rail there to Rosslare and Dublin....purfect!
The Tinahely bypass might have got the chop to pay for that one.
That said the light rail line could have a carriage or two added to bring the sheep to kepak.

( I am of course being sarcastic obviously)

Sir, you are a legend. Tinahely bypass Roffle

bemmet

Good question re Endas leadership.

By the time of the next election -
he will be
-by far the longest serving member of the dail..
-five years longer bereft of any meaningful ministerial experience..
-the media will hardly be as friendly to him again (e.g. majority of media called the debate a draw whereas the vast majority of the public polled clearly saw only one winner -ps not from mayo!)
-almost ready to draw the pension
-still have the same inept ability to demonstate mastery of figures or anything above a preplanted soundbite pattern
-Leading a party who has not tasted victory for a generation


I could go on - but if they have any sense in there they will stop crying about this pyrrhic victory and set about rebuilding the party for the next election with someone who might just be of interest to voters as a real alternative Taoiseach .

Mind you it will be a difficult search !

AidoCQS

kbannon wrote:

The idiot also took pot shots at his leader aa few months ago - not a politically sensible idea in the run up to an election.

Enda does need to crack the whip a bit, and all parties are in a better position to do so now, the 2002 election was like independance day, but after this election the value of party membership is clear.

He needs to use this better position in negotiations to start showing who is boss. Stop some of the messing, I still think running 4 candidates in Clare was maddness (madness they got away with as it happens) but if they want people to respect them they need to be able to manage their own similar to how FF does it.

The Muppet

This was Enda's best chance to be Taoiseach. With all the muck flying about, the media appearing to want him in, the problems in the Health service and yet the People still were not prepared to take a risk on him.

The reason he was 20 points behind Bertie in the exit pole was because the general public just don't see him as Taoiseach material and I don't believe he has the attributes for that to change.

AidoCQS

Any port in a storm dude, I dont know if you have spotted it but the gene pool of TD's in FF, who have even held a ministry is shrinking, thats what happens in a 'democracy' which reelects FF for all but 3/25 years.

The worst thing to do is offer up a converyor belt of Newbies, or young guns like somebody else said, they are going to look inferior even to Spliffo

jmccormack

Enda Kenny has done wonders for fine gael. There is no need for a new leader. Enda is doing fine.

BigTommyBomb

Fine Gael are fine. If Labour or the greens had a slightly better election it would have been them in power.

Sully

Leadership contest? Are you serious? Dont mind that Deasy chap, he is (as his posters say) "Standing Up and Speaking Out". Hes only elected because his second name is Deasy and he is pretty popular FG candiate who has been around sometime.

The first time he challenger FG for leadership, he was just laughed at and a few polls were done to see who people would like to see as FG leader if it did happen etc. Enda just made note. Some Waterford people voted again, but not as many nor as many first preferences. Hence why it took several counts for him to get elected - something he blames Enda for. Now he acted up again, pissing more Waterford people off and further annoying FGs Enda.

Deasy will now be ignored and is no good to us. He can huff and puff all he wants, but after his comments (again) and taking his campaign poster far to seriously -- it will take a LOT longer for him to gain the trust of FG / Public.

bemmet

And if my aunt had ***** she would be my uncle.
IF
The biggest word in Fine Gael post election vocabulary!

Forget the Ifs, FG and the supposed rainbow have never had ,and will never again have such a wind at their backs and they still missed hitting the barn door.

Sully

bemmet wrote:

And if my aunt had ***** she would be my uncle.
IF
The biggest word in Fine Gael post election vocabulary!

Forget the Ifs, FG and the supposed rainbow have never had ,and will never again have such a wind at their backs and they still missed hitting the barn door.

A true FF speaker eh!

Well, FG have improved a LOT in this election and you nor anyone else can deny that. Sure they didnt replace Bertie but it was looking that way for the majority of the polls. They didnt get elected for minor reasons, but they got a nice seat gain.

PDs died. Thanks to FF if you ask me.

Lets see what happens in 5 years time. FG/Labour may well have a good chance. Unless you know something we dont?

E92

Enda WILL REMAIN leader. When Deasy says that he has to go,then its never gonna happen. If anything, Deasy has ensured that Enda will remain leader by his outburst today. Next time it will be Enda vs Cowen, the Bertie factor wont be there next time, and as we all know. I'm sure that Cowen will still win the leaders debate, but he still doesnt have the 'man of the people' status that Bertie has. As I said already, FF did so well because of Bertie yesterday.

nesf

Has Kenny ten good years left in him though?

DeepBlue

nesf wrote:

Has Kenny ten good years left in him though?

Tbh he looked years younger than Bertie in the leader's debate.
I was surprised afterwards to find out that they are the same age :eek: .

E92

The only people I see talking about changing the leadership of Fine Gael are those who DO NOT support Fine Gael. That says a lot really.

nesf

E92 wrote:

The only people I see talking about changing the leadership of Fine Gael are those who DO NOT support Fine Gael. That says a lot really.

That doesn't answer my question which I think it is a fair one regardless of who I do and do not support.

E92

Perhaps this might explain why there should not and hopefully will not be a change of leadership in Fine Gael. Enda wants to stay on in any case.

E92 wrote:

Enda will still be the unquestioned leader of Fine Gael, despite John Deasys best efforts today. What has he to resign about? Why would you resign when your party has gained almost 20 seats,or increased the representation in the Dáil by 64%? Of course its very disappointing that the likelihood is that FG will be in opposition for another 5 years, but Thursday was still a very good day for Fine Gael. Clearly FF held steady, but the party that was supposed to be on its death bed by now increased its vote by 5% compared to 5 years ago.

E92 wrote:

A lot of FG people credit Enda for the fact that FG has increased its Dáil representation by 64%, and increased its vote by 5%. Cowen would make a better Taoiseach, but he wont have the same appeal Bertie had IMO, I feel that while Bertie is a complete waffler, he comes across much better than Cowen, who is quite like Michael Mc Dowell in the way he comes across(arrogant, unexciting, a bit of a bully), and ultimately Bertie saved FFs arses for this election.

nesf

E92 wrote:

Perhaps this might explain why there should not and hopefully will not be a change of leadership in Fine Gael. Enda wants to stay on in any case.

Again, not what I was asking about. I'm not saying that Enda should immediately resign, I'm just curious if people who think he should definitely stay think that he has ten good years left in him for obvious reasons. The leadership question has to be as much about what will be able to do as what he has done imho.

bemmet

Yep ,he will be more ready alright in 5 years time.
As the great man Prince Enda said during the campaign ,"its harder leading the opposition than the government you know".

he will be ready alright!

E92

I think that in 5 years time assuming he stays on he will have gained a lot more experience, will be more convincing in the media,(remember what Enda was like 3 or 4 years ago at public speech?), and he will have visited the consitiuencies a few more times, will have shaken more hands etc. Remember Enda is at his best when it comes to meeting people on the street in terms of his ability to come across well with the electorate. Therefore no need to get rid of him.

nesf

But in five years he needs to stand before the electorate and say I'll lead the country for five years. He'll have to be able to commit to that and convince the people of it which is the crux of the matter.

Irish Wolf

Yup... there's no doubt that he's done a good job in bringing back the seats that FG lost in 2002 but I don't think he's really got the charisma to bring FG into leadership of the country... but there are very few members of the FG party that have that ability.

It's been said that Brian Cowen won the election for FF - I find him extremely arroggant and dismissive but nonetheless he can actually argue the toss... the same can be said of Willie O'Dea and Dermot Ahern.

It seems to me that rather than holding stock in a particulaer leader - you need the people in back up to get the message accross... Richard Bruton can do it but once you take him out of the picture there seems to be very little coming up through FG's ranks...

So while I don't think there's an immediate need for an FG leadership change, I similarly don't think Enda Kenny should lead them into the next election (unless it's in the next couple of weeks). They really need to get more big gun high profile spokes people.

E92

Well the election has brought in some fresh new talent for the party, people like Lucinda Creighton, Leo Varadkar etc, and there were some notable additions who lost out the last time like Brian Hayes, Alan Shatter and I would expect that we will hear a lot more from people like these in terms of media appearances etc. Maybe in 1 or 2 years time there might be a change, but having a leader that is a good media performer is not necessarily a recepie for sucess, I mean people love to hear what Pat Rabbitte has to say but they dont vote for his party do they? As I have already said I see no reason why Fine Gael should get rid of Enda. I think we will go down the tubes if we get rid of him.

At Irishwolf next time around there wont be Bertie, he said he would go at 60, which will be before the election in 5 years time, it will be a contest of Enda vs Brian Cowen, so that will be a much closer contest I would imagine, FF will not have the 'man of the people' status with their new leader. As I said Bertie saved FF arses this time, and the PDs acted as the lightning conductor for the failings of the Government. They would never have done so well were Brian Cowen at the helm at the moment. I know for instance from some FF people I know, that when voters were complaining about health etc they simply told those people that that was all the fault of the PDs and still vote for FF.

The Muppet

Sully wrote:

A true FF speaker eh!

Well, FG have improved a LOT in this election and you nor anyone else can deny that. Sure they didnt replace Bertie but it was looking that way for the majority of the polls. They didnt get elected for minor reasons, but they got a nice seat gain.

PDs died. Thanks to FF if you ask me.

Lets see what happens in 5 years time. FG/Labour may well have a good chance. Unless you know something we dont?

Let's be frank , FG didn't get near FF in fact they didn't even recover all the ground they lost in the previous election.

gandalf

The Muppet wrote:

Let's be frank , FG didn't get near FF in fact they didn't even recover all the ground they lost in the previous election.

Well given I thought they were "Pd'ed" after the last election I think Kenny has to be commended getting FG back to that position.

mike65

Enda Kenny will be 61 in 5 years time. Might that fact alone count against him?

Mike.

InFront

Enda Kenny won't be up against Bertie Ahern next time. That he came this close to victory against one of the most charismatic, most untouchable men in the country is an amazing feat. He has turned Fine Gael around 180 degrees.

He doesn't even need to gain any new seats anymore. If Labour and the Greens improve upon their performance in 2012 and FF lose seats, Kenny is Taoiseach.

InFront

InFront wrote:

He doesn't even need to gain any new seats anymore. If Labour and the Greens improve upon their performance in 2012 and FF lose seats, Kenny is Taoiseach.

Labour I don't know.
They really do have to re examine where they are at.
They gained no seats numbers wise this time.
Kenny did a wonderfull job reversing the slump of 02 but he didnt pull all the seats back that were lost then.
FG should really worry about that fact because realistically they should have trumped the steadiness in the FF support if the mood for change was as strong as let on.It wasn't.
They should have got closer to 60 seats.
They did well in my own constituency gaining a seat that used be mildred foxes but a lot of her votes were what I'd have considered FG gene pool anyway even though she was FF gene pool.

bemmet

As previously stated ,he will be 61 when the next election comes.
Do you really believe that the nation will go for that ?

A taoiseach ,who never held one of the strategic portfolios ,and whom will be drawing the old age pension before his tenure would be complete.
Now that would be a radical vision for the future alright!

Face it guys ,he had had his chance and blew it .

The Muppet

gandalf wrote:

Well given I thought they were "Pd'ed" after the last election I think Kenny has to be commended getting FG back to that position.

I think a lot of circumstance favoured FG this time. FF were ripe for picking and Enda is the primary reason it didin't happen . I wouldn't be sure that the publics opinion of Enda will change over the next five years. IMO It is also unlikely that Labour will enter into a similar pact with FG next time and the news media will be a lot more careful about their reporting. This election was Enda's best oppertunity and he didn't grasp it.

DeepBlue

It's amusing that a lot of obvious FF heads are so interested in the FG leadership contest .

It's a lot harder to regain seats that are lost than it is to retain them. The fact that FG didn't regain all the seats they lost in '02 isn't the issue - the fact that they nearly managed to do so is remarkable.

However there is a lot of anti-FF votes out there. IMO this anti-FF vote is just as irrational as the "I'll always vote for FF" vote. FG hoovered up all the anti-FF vote because they were the only party guaranteed not to go into Government with FF.
Towards the latter end of the campaign it could be seen that a vote for the PDs was a vote for FF and a vote for Labour could easily be a vote for FF. Even a vote for Sinn Fein could have been a vote for FF.

However that anti-FF vote isn't bound to any party and can easily defect to any other party. The next round of opinion polls will be interesting whenever they are held.

One other point - I can't see an FF/Labour or the more likely FF/Green Govenment lasting a full five years. It would be surprising if it did. We could easily see another election in two or three years.

Sully

So I think my earlier comment was addressed, so I wont go about repeating what was already said.

As for the age of Enda... Its a tough one, but maybe we will see him retire just before the election? Who knows.

I also think that Enda cant be blamed for not getting FG into government. It was a close call, and was a very good election for them. As a FF supporter said to me "Rome wasnt built in a day" - I apply the same principal to FG. They cant turn around over night, gain lots of seats and get elected at the same time.

For FG, this general election was very good and did a LOT for the partys chances. They need to reflect on this election and see what went wrong and where they need to improve on to get into government.

E92

Of course FG still have some distance to go, but what we have now is a party much more motivated now than 5 years ago; 5 years ago the party was demoralised. But the fact that Fine Gael almost recovered its losses from 97 is a huge comfort to the party. The reality is that as regards the 'alliance for change' Fine Gael did its bit, increasing its reporesentation by 19 seats in the Dáil, had Labour and the Greens even increased their seats by 3 each there would be a change of Government. Enda has already said that Fine Gael he has identified target gains for Fine Gael next time round already. Off the top of my head I imagine that that is reference to Cork North West, Kildare South, Dún Laoghaire, Louth and others. The local elections will prove to be an excellent guide as to where FG can gain seats, I am sure like they were last time.

gbh

AidoCQS wrote:

You cannot flip/flop from leader to leader at every election, Kenny has developed pedigree from this event.

Agreed...Kenny is a credible leader of Fine Gael, dont let anyone fool you otherwise...Fianna Fail were rattled in this election by Enda and co and whenever they get rattled by someone they try to get that person removed...in any event i dont think Bertie will see out 2007 as leader of Fianna Fail....