So, the PDs...

nesf

Well, the PDs are in serious trouble. Though it'll make the last few counts interesting in a number of constituencies. They've always been at the fringes and a "5th seat" party but it looks like FG have clawed back every voter they lost to them in 2002.

I could see them being brought back into the Government if Bertie feels they'll continue to be good at taking flak away from FF.

Any opinions?

Time Magazine

Looks like they'll get two seats, Harney and Grealish. No government for them tbh.

daveirl

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nesf

Ibid wrote:

Looks like they'll get two seats, Harney and Grealish. No government for them tbh.

Ruling out both O'Malleys and McDowell already? I wouldn't rule out any surprises in Limerick East until after O'Dea's surplus has been distributed tbh.

Nevyn

Honestly it is like people are making tem the scapegoat for FF

The Muppet

I doubt they'll have the numbers to get back. I feel people did vote for change, I did, just not the change everyone expected.

daveirl

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daveirl

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Time Magazine

nesf wrote:

Ruling out both O'Malleys and McDowell already? I wouldn't rule out any surprises in Limerick East until after O'Dea's surplus has been distributed tbh.

I think Gormley will take the seat in DSE. I've been following that all day as it's my adopted home (College) constituency. Also there's a chance of Mick McDowell losing his seat . The majority of the transfers are coming from lefties.

Fiona is coming 9th in her constituency, I think.

Tim O'Malley only got 10% of Willie's transfers last time.

Wouldn't rule it out. But now that my bet that the PDs will get "less than seven" seats is certainly coming true (what a banker that was), I'd be inclined to think absolutely no more than 3.

McDowell might just scrape in.. I can see him getting more transfers then Gormley, but it will be tight!!

nesf

Ibid wrote:

I think Gormley will take the seat in DSE. I've been following that all day as it's my adopted home (College) constituency. Also there's a chance of Mick McDowell losing his seat . The majority of the transfers are coming from lefties.

Oh I agree, I just wouldn't rule out McDowell. Should be interesting to watch though. Both are the kind of men who can pick up transfers from the most unlikely places.

Ibid wrote:

Tim O'Malley only got 10% of Willie's transfers last time.

Wouldn't rule it out. But now that my bet that the PDs will get "less than seven" seats is certainly coming true (what a banker that was), I'd be inclined to think absolutely no more than 3.

O'Malley got a lot of transfers from FF candidates as they went out though as well as from all over the place from Independents. I wouldn't rule him out.

redspider

daveirl wrote:

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I just spotted that Mary Harney is in trouble !

important edit
FF's Moriarty is eliminated next and FG's Fitzgerald is likely thereafter and their distributions could carry the young and inexperienced Joanna Tuffy:

Candidate	Party	%1st Pref Count 1   	2   	3   	4   	5
CURRAN, John*		Elected	23.2  	8650	8650	8650	8650	8650
GOGARTY, Paul*		  	10.8  	4043	4123	4393	5557	6700
TUFFY, Joanna		  	10.9  	4075	4145	4440	4895	6004
HARNEY, Mary*		  	12.5  	4663	4956	5066	5454	5668
FITZGERALD, Frances		12.0  	4480	4532	4680	4975	5344
MORIARTY, Luke	Excluded	9.8  	3671	4200	4333	4666	5185

Now, Overall FF are predicted to get 80 or so seats, and with Ind's it could result in an FF-only government. ie: They wont need the PD's .... who will maybe only have a few TD's and all who are under pressure in their constituencies.

But if Mary Harney fails to return, that will be a big scalp and she could retire from politics!

Redspider

mike65

Anyone fancy a virtual wager (if the worst happens) of a few high profile members being taken in by FF?

Mike.

nesf

redspider wrote:

But if Mary Harney fails to return, that will be a big scalp and she will/should retire from politics!

I think that it would a hard blow to her after the blood, sweat and tears she's put into the Health Service (regardless of your stance on her policies, no one can claim that she wasn't putting in a lot of effort).

redspider

Ibid wrote:

Fiona is coming 9th in her constituency, I think.

Yeah, looks like she wont get enough transfers and Barret from FG will make a seat gain there for them.

The other interesting battle going on there is for the 5th seat between:
BOYD BARRETT, Richard 5233
CUFFE, Ciarán* 4534

Cuffe of the Green's should make it, you would think, but Boyd-Barret has a 700 vote advantage and stranger things have happened in the People's Republic of Dun Laoire.

Dave!

Dublin South East will be very interesting.

AidoCQS

Thaedydal wrote:

Honestly it is like people are making tem the scapegoat for FF

Yes one of the labour guys said there that Ahern uses them as a heat shield, I said it before the election, they had Angola (Health) and Iraq (Justice), were they mad to take those on, It could not have been just arrogance, was that not suicide for such a small party

SeanW

Well, the Progressive Degenerates really aren't much more than a totalitarian-right incarnation of Fianna Fail so their decimation would be a silver lining in todays very dark cloud.

TCollins

nesf wrote:

I think that it would a hard blow to her after the blood, sweat and tears she's put into the Health Service (regardless of your stance on her policies, no one can claim that she wasn't putting in a lot of effort).

And the hard work of trying to rob the pensioners.

FF will be a better party without their PD shield to protect them. It will make them more accountable for any fcuk ups they do.

Dirk Gently

I don't know what to make of the results. I'm glad the PD's are doing badly and it does look like they're being made scapegoat for FF. A little harsh but I wont complain because I'm not a PD fan at all. I am bitterly dissappointed that FF have done so well but my prefered coalition would still be FF with either labour or the greens so might still work out. I was hoping Labour or the greens would insist Bertie stepped down before doing business with a weakened FF but by the looks of it FF seem to have enough of a mandate rule out sacraficing bertie.

My biggest dissapointment is poor oul Joe Higgins not getting returned.
I really hope PD + FF don't have enough to get back in. What will happen co-location if FF need labour?
Mike may have a point about some PD's getting in the FF back door.

redspider

Mary Harney is elected.

Mea Culpa, I thought this was a 3 seater but its a 4 seater (I wish this country would standardize on seats per constituency), so Mary was fairly safe and by call of her demise was incorrect.

Tuffy does get elected though, with 1,000 to spare. The scores on the door are:

FF CURRAN, John* Elected 8650
FG FITZGERALD, Frances excluded 5664
GP GOGARTY, Paul* Elected 7920
PD HARNEY, Mary* Elected 7786
Lab TUFFY, Joanna Elected 6672

ateam

Harney looked flushed on the tv there. But Harney succeeds again. McDowell in real trouble

gandalf

McDowell needs to get 2 to 1 transfers from O'Callaghan compared to Gormley to catch up which is probably not going to happen.

redspider

Tom Parlon admits defeat, before the 1st count is announced!

McDowell in big trouble, will come down to a few votes, maybe less than 100. Between himself and Gormley of GP. Cant be called really and I would expect recounts.

Stark

It will be good not to have to read "McDowell calls for blah blah blah" in the papers anymore.

ateam

Forgetting that this is very important for the Greens. Gormley is after Sergeant, the most prominent figure in the Greens. It would be a real blow on top of a poor showing nationally if Gormley loses.

Crash

Liz O'Donnell goes out. PD's lose another seat.

Dave!

And the Irish public lose some eye candy.

Marshy

gandalf wrote:

McDowell needs to get 2 to 1 transfers from O'Callaghan compared to Gormley to catch up which is probably not going to happen.

Well its being said he got 69% from FF on a previous occasion so it isnt over yet.

Crash

BUT hopefully Anne Marie Martin gets elected.

Stargal

Not to be petty but:

The_Minister two days ago wrote:

I predict around 5/6 seats for the PDs. Minimum. I will apologise if I'm wrong.

Ok, maybe to be a teensy bit petty...

gurramok

On politics.ie they are saying McD is eliminated!
http://www.politics.ie/viewtopic.php?t=21802

'McDowell is 1100 votes behind Gormley, yet only 950 votes remain to be transferrered, thus he is certain to be eliminated in the next count. Foregone conclusion.'

Bubs101

gandalf wrote:

McDowell needs to get 2 to 1 transfers from O'Callaghan compared to Gormley to catch up which is probably not going to happen.

That wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. O'callaghan is unbelievably similar to Miccy D. Same education, same job
I'd assume he'd get most transfers

BMH

gurramok wrote:

On politics.ie they are saying McD is eliminated!
http://www.politics.ie/viewtopic.php?t=21802

'McDowell is 1100 votes behind Gormley, yet only 950 votes remain to be transferrered, thus he is certain to be eliminated in the next count. Foregone conclusion.'

He needs about 50% of O'Callahan's votes.

MisterAnarchy

Why have people turned so harshly on the Pd's ?
They have been in Govt for 10 years and surely most have been an asset to their constituency in that time .
Why desert them now ,mostly in favour of a non Government candidate ?

stovelid

redspider wrote:

Mary Harney is elected.

Mea Culpa, I thought this was a 3 seater but its a 4 seater (I wish this country would standardize on seats per constituency), so Mary was fairly safe and by call of her demise was incorrect.

Tuffy does get elected though, with 1,000 to spare. The scores on the door are:

FF CURRAN, John* Elected 8650
FG FITZGERALD, Frances excluded 5664
GP GOGARTY, Paul* Elected 7920
PD HARNEY, Mary* Elected 7786
Lab TUFFY, Joanna Elected 6672

Thought we had her out finally. She's on my manor.

She was lucky it was a four seater this time. I assume Moriarty's transfers saved her bacon.?

stovelid

&#231 wrote: »

BUT hopefully Anne Marie Martin gets elected.

Token politico-totty alert!!

murphaph

MisterAnarchy wrote:

Why have people turned so harshly on the Pd's?

They promised to "keep an eye on FF in government". They didn't or at least didn't do anything to show they were.

solas

The Muppet wrote:

I doubt they'll have the numbers to get back. I feel people did vote for change, I did, just not the change everyone expected.

i'm sick. the thought of a FF only government is making me queasy.
Its disappointing not having any PD representative here in Waterford, would have made marking my first preference easier.

super_furry

McDowell: "My career is public life is over"

There's a silver lining after all. See you later Fuhrer.

Robin1982

McD calls it a day on politics...

Dyr

McDowells just conceded..sez he's stepping down from public life too. Aww mickey so long and thanks for the memories..:)

MisterAnarchy

murphaph wrote:

They promised to "keep an eye on FF in government". They didn't or at least didn't do anything to show they were.

Then why have people voted so favourably for FF ?
Harney and Mc Dowell were the only Ministers that seemed to be progressive.

johnnyskeleton

McDowell has admitted defeat. The Fuhrer is gone.

It says something when the leader of a party, an outgoing Tainiste & Minister for Justice, and well known politican is not returned.

I think it also says something that the FF transfers seem to be going Green rather than PD

Dyr

I guess it never occured to him that a "no thanks" to left wing government didnt necessarily mean a "yes please" to a right wing government.

Bye Bye iron mike...wonder what will happen to the PD's? maybe they can form a branch of the conservative party in "eire"

murphaph

I'm sure McDowell won't have too much trouble keeping the wolf from the door all the same. The good people of DSE must be applauded however for dispatching him!

murphaph

Dobson has just compared the PD's to a "lightning rod for government dissatisfaction" lol.

The_Minister

I apologise. I was wrong.
Hopefully, the PDs+Ind+FF will form the next government and the PDs will recover.
It's a great pity that McDowell is gone, he was one of the few honest Irish politicians, who actual dared to call himself a right-wing, capitalist, libertarian.

redspider

McDowell definitely gone, by 300 or so votes behind Gormley. There were 500 or so non-transferables (ie: people who didnt have a 2 or a 3 or a 4).

I dont think there will be many tears shed ..... somehow.

Creighton - FG gain (partial eye candy for those that have been clamouring it above)
PD Loss

Liz O'Donnel gone
Parlon gone

In terms of the general swing, it has shown that a lot of those that switched from FG to PD's the last time (they gained +4) have this time moved back to FG.

redspider

daveirl

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MisterAnarchy

daveirl wrote:

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Yes I wholeheartedly agree.
The trouble with people is not that they don't know but that they know so much that ain't so. ~Josh Billings