possibly interesting hand

robinlacey

10/20 full ring,effective stacks 4k.

i'm in the big blind with AK.

middle position raises to 70,cutoff calls,i make it 250,original raiser folds,cutoff calls.

cutoff has been playing quite agressively,raising a lot of hands,firing a few second barrells,but hasn't done anything too crazy while i've been at the table.

i've been playing fairly standard tight agressive poker.

flop KK2 with a flush draw.

pot is 620,i bet 420,he calls.

turn is a 7,doesn't complete the flush draw.

i bet 800,he pushes.

ocallagh

robinlacey wrote:

10/20 full ring,effective stacks 4k.

i'm in the big blind with AK.

middle position raises to 70,cutoff calls,i make it 250,original raiser folds,cutoff calls.

cutoff has been playing quite agressively,raising a lot of hands,firing a few second barrells,but hasn't done anything too crazy while i've been at the table.

i've been playing fairly standard tight agressive poker.

flop KK2 with a flush draw.

pot is 620,i bet 420,he calls.

turn is a 7,doesn't complete the flush draw.

i bet 800,he pushes.

so u have 1550 left? pot is 5.5k roughly? I think he has KQ/bluff enough of the time here to call. Of course 22 is highly likely but I don't think we can fold, can we? 77 would be horrible.

robinlacey

no we have like 2300 or something.
(bet sizes aren't exact,its from memory)

ocallagh

robinlacey wrote:

no we have like 2300 or something.
(bet sizes aren't exact,its from memory)

sry my maths was off, yeah 2500 left according to your first post. I still find it hard to fold, but I rule out KQ now which leaves us with 22, AK or bluff essentially.

pok3rplaya

Is KQ that far of a stretch?

Board: Kc 2c Kd 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.455% 31.82% 13.64% 1092 468.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 54.545% 40.91% 13.64% 1404 468.00 { 77, 22, AKs, KQs, AKo, KQo }

fuzzbox

Oh 200BBs deep, this is painful.
I really find it difficult to fold this. Nobody believes you have Kx here because there are two of them on board. If he has 22, then thats pretty sucky. Cant he have AA here? Or even QQ being a goon?
Or even AQs with fd?

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

robinlacey

pok3rplaya wrote:

Is KQ that far of a stretch?

well if he had KQ why would he push?
with KQ there he has to know he's either way ahead or way behind,pushing seems to get the worst of both worlds,its so unlikely a worse hand calls.

robinlacey

fuzzbox wrote:

Oh 200BBs deep, this is painful.
I really find it difficult to fold this. Nobody believes you have Kx here because there are two of them on board. If he has 22, then thats pretty sucky. Cant he have AA here? Or even QQ being a goon?
Or even AQs with fd?

i really don't see how he could have AA or QQ here,surely he'd be in calldown mode hoping i keep bluffing if i don't have a K?

i can't imagine anyone pushing AA or QQ for value here,and they'd be terrible hands to bluff with since my range is basically hands that aren't folding and bluffs,so either way pushing would be awful.

robinlacey

LuckyLloyd wrote:

Robin, can you not remove 22 from his range here? Would flatcalling 70 and then a re - raise to 250 with 22 not be very bad?

And if you remove 22 from his range and include AA with AK // KQ // 77 then surely you have a clear call?

200 bbs deep he could easily have 22.
and there are some opponents (not me,i hope) against whom he could with 22 here call even if it was only 100 bbs deep (it'd be marginal,and there's not many players predictable enough for it to be ok to call here,but its not impossible)

peeko

It's good to see the insights of a players mind at this level. Looking forward to seeing outcome.

fuzzbox

robinlacey wrote:

i really don't see how he could have AA or QQ here,surely he'd be in calldown mode hoping i keep bluffing if i don't have a K?

i can't imagine anyone pushing AA or QQ for value here,and they'd be terrible hands to bluff with since my range is basically hands that aren't folding and bluffs,so either way pushing would be awful.

Why did you bet the turn then?

robinlacey

well he might still call with QQ or AA,i just don't think he'll push with them

Hectorjelly

I dont think I could fold this, I think he has AK as well a good portion of the time, as well as playing a flush draw cleverly.

robinlacey

seems like a very risky way to play a flush draw,since it involves committing over a full buyin with a flush draw on the turn against a range that is basically hands that will call and be well ahead,plus the chance the flush draw is drawing dead,so basically a flush draw would be hoping to outbluff a bluff.

jimmii

I would check the turn hoping to induce a bet from hands that I beat. 77 would be super sick here. His call/call to the pre-flop raises does look like a PP but I think you have to have a pretty good read on his play to get away from this. People see the super high stakes players push flush draws on the turn and think they can do it too. If he has a FH then its a bit of a cooler and so be it.

Hectorjelly

I think its a very clever way to play a flush draw, people expect you to be much more aggressive with draws on the flop than on the turn. That coupled with the fact that you wont have a hand that can call him most of the time means its a pretty good play - the only hands hes actually dead to are 77 22 and KK, all of which are very unlikely. He is representing AK, which is a very likely hand for him. I mean, your posting this hand thinking about folding AK which is close to the strongest hand you will ever have here. Had he raised the flop you would of been more than happy to get it all in.

If you never bet the turn without a huge hand then it would be a bad bluff, but I would expect he thinks you continue betting with a much wider range than that.

robinlacey

i've started raising the turn with flush draws after flat calling the flop a lot recently,however in this particular hand i don't think its a great idea,i don't think he has enough information to think that i'm going to fold often enough for it to work,and its going to cost him a lot to find out.

i mean the only hands i continue with that don't call his push are bluffs,but i think this would be a bad spot for me to second barrell since if i have nothing i'm going to have to third barrell a lot here hoping he doesn't haven't a king,the second barrell on its own often won't get him off TT-AA.

Hectorjelly

I think he would think you could have TT-AA as well, you may well have a real hand but not be able to call his all in. Also, his play doesnt have to make that much sense or be a good bluff, all that matters is is he capable of it!

robinlacey

that's true yeah,people do strange things,i'm not saying he can never be bluffing with a flush draw here,just that i don't think he is very often.

i don't think he could think i have TT-AA,pretty much anyone would know to check either the turn or the flop with those hands.

ocallagh

Assinging such a tight range as AK/22/bluff is very hard to do, but given the action we might have to. Initially it doesn't make sense to fold, but when you look at it closely it doesn't make sense that we are ahead here much! He's looking for a cheap river with a hand that has any showdown value, TT-AA for example so I would rule them out. He has to be bluffing a lot (or playing KQ badly) to make it a call. I genuinely don't know what to do. At 1/2 or 2/4 I'd call because people do stupid stuff like push with K8 here, but very few at 10/20 would make mistakes like that and I doubt many of them would readily bluff 200BBs trying to take you off the king.

I think I call, but only hoping he made a mistake!

What did you do?

pok3rplaya

He only has to be bluffing a very small ammount of the time to make this a good call. So yeah, call and feel good about it.

Board: Kc Kd 2c 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.955% 07.95% 25.00% 21 66.00 { AsKh }
Hand 1: 67.045% 42.05% 25.00% 111 66.00 { 22, AKs, AKo }

pok3rplaya

If I add a single combination of 84o (as a bluff) to that range above then it becaoms a call. I think that is reasonable.

robinlacey

this is actually one of those sly reverso hands,i was the villain of the piece.

i actually had 77,i had a note on him that said he cbets 100% of the time when he 3bets preflop so i called with the intention of bluffing the turn and probably river if he checked.

the reason i found the hand interesting was because i was wondering how deep we'd have to be before he should think about folding.

robinlacey

i really do think this is a bad spot for a bluff,i mean i called the flop with the intention of bluffing,but as soon as he bet the turn i would have instafolded,a bluff wouldn't have entered my mind.

ocallagh

robinlacey wrote:

this is actually one of those sly reverso hands,i was the villain of the piece.

i actually had 77,i had a note on him that said he cbets 100% of the time when he 3bets preflop so i called with the intention of bluffing the turn and probably river if he checked.

the reason i found the hand interesting was because i was wondering how deep we'd have to be before he should think about folding.

we should hold a minutes silence for the villain over in the bad beat thread! sick stuff, but a good hand for debate

robinlacey

haha yeah,happy days!

cardshark202

Easy money, but I would call with AK in his spot.

pok3rplaya

fwiw I think your pf and flop play is pretty bad.

robinlacey

really?

i think its fairly standard this deep,given that he's betting 100% of flops.

well not completely standard,but once i'm playing a fairly normal player who isn't too crazy and we're 200 bbs deep i'm looking for spots to push him around,this seemed like a pretty good one.

preflop is totally standard i would have though,180 more to call with 4k behind?

pok3rplaya

Your actions pf basically turn your hand face up as either AA or a pocket pair less than TT IMO and make you vey easy to play against. If I was the preflop 3bettor in this hand with KK I would be betting a flop and basically shutting down to any action including a call. No chance you make the $2500 (10x rule updated to 14x) or whatever you need to make to justify the preflop call. And thats when my actual hand is at the top of my range.

On the flop I think the OOP float is bad from a G-bucks point of view. Say his range is TT+, AJs+, AQo+ (which is pretty reasonable given this is FR I think, could be wrong) then our equity is 30%. This means we have to be bluffing a pf reraiser off his hand a lot in order to turn this hand into profit. Given that we are OOP with a villan who is in a good position to use pot control lines which will pick off our bluffs (like check/bet/call, chk/chk, bluff/call) I feel this will be difficult.

pok3rplaya

I just realised my comments are contradictory lol but still I think this is gonna be -EV overall.

Blip

jimmii wrote:

77 would be super sick here.QUOTE]

I'm sure the chatbox went electric

fuzzbox

robinlacey wrote:

i really do think this is a bad spot for a bluff,i mean i called the flop with the intention of bluffing,but as soon as he bet the turn i would have instafolded,a bluff wouldn't have entered my mind.

Right - so the reason you bet the turn, is because it wasnt you at all :-).

This is a great "floating" flop for villains in your position. I really think that the best line for Mr. AK is chk/call and then chk/call again and hope that bluffo mcginty fires big bullets with nuttin trying to push opponent off AA/QQ/JJ kinda stuff.

Since its a good floating flop, we need to let the floater fire his barrells.

Comments?

fuzzbox

Oh one more thing - why do you shove the turn here when you hit your hand?
If you call then he might fire a 3rd barrel to push you off a medium pair like 88, that might hang around for a street or two on this kind of board.

Sure, you got called this time, but surely he is allowed to have AQs here (and hell he might even hit his flush).

Hectorjelly

Definitely

pok3rplaya

robinlacey wrote:

i really do think this is a bad spot for a bluff,i mean i called the flop with the intention of bluffing,but as soon as he bet the turn i would have instafolded,a bluff wouldn't have entered my mind.

If the turn checks through and you bet at it on the river you're gonna get called by TT-AA almost half the time I think.

valor

he is in position with 77 so im not sure what you are on about pok3r

I think this is a cooler, I call with AK here

also, I dont like your turn push I think calling is superior vs his hand range

pok3rplaya

Ohya lol. Sorry disregard everything I said in this thread, I thought the 3bet came from the Button for some reason.

Except I still think preflop is marginal/bad.

Ste05

Firstly I think you need to raise alot more Pre-Flop if you are going to be re-raising here. That re-raise is just asking to be called and then you've just created a huge pot with massive stacks with you OOP holding a very difficult hand to play. I'd be making it 350 to go.

As played you're getting about 2:1 on your remaining money, and although 22 is likely, and so is 77 (although I find 77 hard to believe with his flop call), I'd also find AK hard to believe with his double smooth call pre-flop especially from a player described as aggressive. So I'd think his range is almost entirely made up of small and medium pairs, I'd think he would think that he has huge fold equity due to his position and could well be making a move with a pair. (Bluff Raise FTW!! )

I think I call.

EDIT: I wrote that and got called away for a meeting, I see the conversation passed it by. I'll leave it there anyway.

robinlacey

pok3rplaya wrote:

Your actions pf basically turn your hand face up as either AA or a pocket pair less than TT IMO and make you vey easy to play against. If I was the preflop 3bettor in this hand with KK I would be betting a flop and basically shutting down to any action including a call. No chance you make the $2500 (10x rule updated to 14x) or whatever you need to make to justify the preflop call. And thats when my actual hand is at the top of my range.

On the flop I think the OOP float is bad from a G-bucks point of view. Say his range is TT+, AJs+, AQo+ (which is pretty reasonable given this is FR I think, could be wrong) then our equity is 30%. This means we have to be bluffing a pf reraiser off his hand a lot in order to turn this hand into profit. Given that we are OOP with a villan who is in a good position to use pot control lines which will pick off our bluffs (like check/bet/call, chk/chk, bluff/call) I feel this will be difficult.

i was in position,not sure if this changes your opinion at all.

also,my range is a lot wider than AA and 99-22,in fact its 22-AA (not sure why you'd rule out TT-KK,i definitely flat call with those too) and all sorts of random suited connectors.the only hands i always fold to his raise when we're this deep that i would have called the initial raise with are offsuit broadway cards.

as for the float,i think if he checks the turn i can get him to fold almost all the time,since he is cbetting with all of his 3betting hands there is a decent chunk of his range that instafolds on the turn,and i'm fairly sure i can get him to fold TT-AA this deep...

of course if he has AK,KK or QK and decides to check call the turn and river i'm f.ucked,but of those hands i think only QK plays it this way more than very occassionally,i'm fairly sure AK and KK almost always bet out on either the turn or the river,and if he bets out on any street other than the flop i'm done with the hand.

i just think given a fairly predictable player,his turn play is going to give me a huge amount of information.after i see what he does on the turn,i can basically divide his range in two-hands he will get all in with,all of which he bets except QK,and hands he can't call off all his chips with,all of which he checks. obviously its not quite as cast in stone as all that,people do strange things sometimes and you never know,but unless he's very tricky i'm happy to go with that read,he's in an awful spot from my point of view and i want to take of advantage of that.there's no sure things in poker but i really think his turn action will give me way too much information to pass on.

robinlacey

fuzzbox wrote:

Right - so the reason you bet the turn, is because it wasnt you at all :-).

This is a great "floating" flop for villains in your position. I really think that the best line for Mr. AK is chk/call and then chk/call again and hope that bluffo mcginty fires big bullets with nuttin trying to push opponent off AA/QQ/JJ kinda stuff.

Since its a good floating flop, we need to let the floater fire his barrells.

Comments?

if he knows that i am in fact bluffo mcginty then his best option is to check call me down yeah,but when you have a hand as strong as his i think it loses a lot of value to rely on hoping i will make a huge bluff (of course i was planning on making a huge bluff,as it happens!) when there is a good chance i have a hand with showdown value that will call at least one more street.

basically from his point of view its way more likely that i have a hand worth calling with than i have an elaborate bluff planned,there are lots of second best hands that i will call with but not necessarily bet if its checked to me,TT-AA for example,but also worse kings than his own that will find it hard to fold but be glad to check behind at least one of the streets. (i'm not saying i'd call off my stack with KT here,but a lot of people would and he should try and get value from them)

pok3rplaya

Sorry I thought we were OOP.

robinlacey

fuzzbox wrote:

Oh one more thing - why do you shove the turn here when you hit your hand?
If you call then he might fire a 3rd barrel to push you off a medium pair like 88, that might hang around for a street or two on this kind of board.

Sure, you got called this time, but surely he is allowed to have AQs here (and hell he might even hit his flush).

well i think when he bets the turn here,i think his range is narrowed hugely-its either AK,KK or QK,all of which i'm getting all in against (nothing i can do if he has quads!),or its a bluff,in which case i don't think he ever fires a third barrell,so i'm not losing anything by pushing.

robinlacey

pok3rplaya wrote:

If the turn checks through and you bet at it on the river you're gonna get called by TT-AA almost half the time I think.

from my point of view the turn is never getting checked through,either he bets or i do.

jimmii

Everyone keeps talking about him having KK. Don't you have AK and there is KK2 on the flop? Surely if he has quads here then its a void hand anyway!

robinlacey

valor wrote:

he is in position with 77 so im not sure what you are on about pok3r

I think this is a cooler, I call with AK here

also, I dont like your turn push I think calling is superior vs his hand range

what hands do you think he will push the river with but fold to my push on the turn?
i can't think of any,except maybe QK

Ste05

I have to agree with Fuzzbox, this is such a great floating flop for a player in position and deep that I'd nearly always let him bluff the turn and river by check calling him.

Also I don't think you ever really have a hand here that you are willing to call down with, but not bet here. I'd be betting hoping you go over the top or check hoping you'll take a stab. I'd never be betting here thinking a weaker hand will call us down.

Also pretty much everyone knows this: "the only hands i always fold to his raise when we're this deep that i would have called the initial raise with are offsuit broadway cards", so the chance of you having a K are tiny. It's a float or a pair, and I really can't see many people smooth calling twice with AK.

robinlacey

robinlacey wrote:

from my point of view the turn is never getting checked through,either he bets or i do.

sorry,when i was replying to your point i didn't realise you had made it while you still though we were oop,i was a little confused!

Marq

get with the program pok3rplaya!

Robin given that his turn bet basically removes all bluffs from his range, yet your turn raise then puts him to a really tough decision, do you think flat calling and getting it in on the river is a better line?

fuzzbox

robinlacey wrote:

well i think when he bets the turn here,i think his range is narrowed hugely-its either AK,KK or QK,all of which i'm getting all in against (nothing i can do if he has quads!),or its a bluff,in which case i don't think he ever fires a third barrell,so i'm not losing anything by pushing.

Yes you are - he fires a third barrell more than 0%, and he also makes a flush some % of the time (but folds the turn with said flush draw).

I dont see what you gain by pushing, as you will get all in on the river Vs AK/KQ nearly everytime in any case.