RTE Exit Poll

Moriarty

Fianna Fail - 41.6%
Fianna Gael - 26.3%
Labour - 9.9%
PDs - 2.6%
Greens - 4.8%
Sinn Fein - 7.3%
Independants & others - 7.5%


2.5% margin of error

100gSoma

cheers..

Dave!

goddammit

shoutman

How many constituencies(sp) does it take into consideration?

MoominPapa

http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0525/election1.html
3000 people at 166 polling stations. Doesn't sound like much, 18 voters a station, yet they claim a 2.5% margin of error and apparently it was very accurate last time. Still it is just the first preferences...

shoutman

Was just about to post that MoominPapa, I dont know how they can claim only a 2.5% margin of error...

AidoCQS

I beleive its countrywide

I think we have to give props to Sinn Fein, thats a solid return, from an outfit who did not exist a few elections ago.

sudzs

FF - 41.6%

...oh sweet gentle suffering Jesus.... :eek: :mad:

ArthurDent

ffs

crap crap crap

terrible result for labour.

mike65

Looks like its all in the transfers then. So much for the breakthroughs from SF and Greens.

Mike.

Gobán Saor

Looks like FF+gene pool knocking on the door of an overall majority - any one of Lab, SF or Green would make up the numbers. Bertie makes history. The Mayo boys - worse hammering than last years All-Ireland. Enda might survive to fight again. PD's hopes restricted to salvaging McDowell, Harney and O'Donnell seats from the wreckage. Disappointing for Greens, Dan Boyle conceded on Morning Ireland they'll do well to take 8 seats. No huge breakthrough for the Shinners but will probably have become a lot more transfer friendly post decommissioning, NI Assembly, candidates without a "past" etc, so could pick up quite a few seats. A monumental disaster for Labour - the second election in a row where they lost ground having been in opposition. Remember Labour plus DL were on 41 (33 + 8) seats in 1992.

Jonny Arson

I feel like crying Looks like we're on for the great Fianna Fáil con job of 2007 that will see 1977 pale into comparison.

If those percentages work out in seats it will be around (taking in transfers and likley seats loses in some constituencies):

FF 74
FG 45
Lab 19
SF 8
GP 7
PDs 4
Ind/Others 9

It's really a case of who is going to go into government with the shower of incompetent chancers. If FF-PDs-Ind form the next government I'll probably riot.

mike65

Did people re-act to the suspicion that Labour were just a bit too confident or that Rabbitte was apparently disingenuous regarding coalition.

Mike.

jjbrien

rte exit poll was done early in the mourning before the main election rush came after 5pm. I would not put too much faith in it as rte have been very pro ff trought the whole election.

Gobán Saor

There's a phrase for it..........

It's the economy, stupid.

Jonny Arson

jjbrien wrote:

rte exit poll was done early in the mourning before the main election rush came after 5pm. I would not put too much faith in it as rte have been very pro ff trought the whole election.

In fairness, their exit poll in 2002 was pretty accurate and had only a +/- 1 margin of error for each party. Take it that FF has at least 40%.

mike65

jjbrien

How do you work that out? They just said on air it was done throughout the day and the time of day is pretty much irrelevant anyway.

Mike.

jjbrien

jjbrien wrote:

rte exit poll was done early in the mourning before the main election rush came after 5pm. I would not put too much faith in it as rte have been very pro ff trought the whole election.

Thats rubbish.
On morning Ireland it said that it was conducted throughout the day from 730am to 1030pm and that the sample was bigger than 2002.
Their 2002 one was very accurate.
By the way this shows a slight rise in FF support on 2002.

PH01

Moriarty wrote:

Fianna Fail - 41.6%
Fine Gael - 26.3%
Labour - 9.9%
PDs - 2.6%
Greens - 4.8%
Sinn Fein - 7.3%
Independants & others - 7.5%


2.5% margin of error

This is pretty close to last weekends opinion poll -

But is it too early to say "5 MORE YEARS!!!"

Jonny Arson

Jonny Arson wrote:

I feel like crying Looks like we're on for the great Fianna Fáil con job of 2007 that will see 1977 pale into comparison.

If those percentages work out in seats it will be around (taking in transfers and likley seats loses in some constituencies):

FF 74
FG 45
Lab 19
SF 8
GP 7
PDs 4
Ind/Others 9

It's really a case of who is going to go into government with the shower of incompetent chancers. If FF-PDs-Ind form the next government I'll probably riot.

Codswallop.
FF got a huge overall majority in 77,they won't this time.

By the way also this is a first preference exit poll.
Transfers may be different and do make all the difference.

However it's already showing again how this board and politics.ie is a magnet for the disaffected as opposed to being a reflection of reality.
But then I always thought that.
Mood for change my árse based on this

I'll caveat this strongly though as counting only begins at 9am.

PoolDude

jjbrien wrote:

rte exit poll was done early in the mourning before the main election rush came after 5pm. I would not put too much faith in it as rte have been very pro ff trought the whole election.

Clutching at straws?

PH01

jjbrien wrote:

I would not put too much faith in it as rte have been very pro ff trought the whole election.

RTE Pro FF!!!???
You've got to be kidding!

cooperguy

What percentage is needed to form the government? Im trying to work out the possibilities.

PH01

PH01 wrote:

This is pretty close to last weekends opinion poll -

But is it too early to say "5 MORE YEARS!!!"

If ahern is Taoiseach ie he has the numbers in whatever make up,then he's hardly going to be pushed in his own party-Especiall given the storm he made it through.

Ghupta Yahd

What happened to the mood for change?

mike65

T'was a media invention.

Mike.

cooperguy

cooperguy wrote:

What percentage is needed to form the government? Im trying to work out the possibilities.

Thats impossible to quantify.

You see this poll may not be as accurate as the last one given that this time there is a very strong transfer pact between FG and Labour.

I wouldnt go making any assumptions yet other than FF are unlikely to lose a lot of seats.

Lennoxschips

well, the people get what they vote for. and they will get cronyism and incompetence. sad, but true, and reminds me why i live where i live.

wonder what will come out of the mahon tribunal.

Badabing

Going by this Fianna Fail will get at least 73 seats, its all down to tranfers with Fine Gael and Labour now, the last seats in the 5 seaters will be even more crucial now.

miju

oh sweet dear christ FF aren't going anywhere :mad: :mad: :mad: . though in a way thats not a bad thing because at least they'll get it in the neck for whats coming down the road for the economy rather than FG/LAB

sudzs

I predict a riot! :cool:

100gSoma

jjbrien wrote:

rte exit poll was done early in the mourning before the main election rush came after 5pm. I would not put too much faith in it as rte have been very pro ff trought the whole election.

best point so far.... I cannot believe these figures giving the "vibe" of people wanting to give FF a kick in the pants.

mike65

*shakes head*

Mike.

Zebra3

Moriarty wrote:

PDs - 2.6%

2.5% margin of error

Hopefully that leaves the PDs on 0.1%. :cool:

jjbrien

Ghupta Yahd wrote:

What happened to the mood for change?

Well if things are the way rte say which i hope not then people in Ireland are like sheep and dont know any better. If this is the case I have lost all faith in the people of Ireland and I might emmigate as another 5 years of FF I could not take.

Oh and by the way my mother was working at a polling office yesterday and she told me the exit poll guys were only there between 10:00 and 10:30 they did not come back at all after that.

100gSoma

Forget those morning exit poll stats... I'm telling you. I will be STUNNED if there is not better news come 2pm.

DMC

jjbrien wrote:

Oh and by the way my mother was working at a polling office yesterday and she told me the exit poll guys were only there between 10:00 and 10:30 they did not come back at all after that.

Which only means they asked a few people at that polling station, and spent the next half hour at another, to build up the picture.

jjbrien

jjbrien wrote:

Well if things are the way rte say which i hope not then people in Ireland are like sheep and dont know any better. If this is the case I have lost all faith in the people of Ireland and I might emmigate as another 5 years of FF I could not take.

so you don't want a democracy then.I suggest you emmigrate to a dictator

Oh and by the way my mother was working at a polling office yesterday and she told me the exit poll guys were only there between 10:00 and 10:30 they did not come back at all after that.

Thats because they moved from polling station to polling station...

Folks it's everybodies Ireland not just yours you know.
If this doesnt go the way you want.

100gSoma

100gSoma wrote:

Forget those morning exit poll stats... I'm telling you. I will be STUNNED if there is not better news come 2pm.

I know like the last RTÉ exit poll was so inaccurate (it wasn't)...

But I'd agree with you there will be better rainbow news than this poll as they are working on a better transfer pact.You'd better hope that FG arent taking seats off labour and vice versa though.

jjbrien

Tristrame wrote:

so you don't want a democracy then.I suggest you emmigrate to a dictator
Thats because they moved from polling station to polling station...

Folks it's everybodies Ireland not just yours you know.
If this doesnt go the way you want.

10 years is long enough for any goverment. If FF get in they will be very lazy we have seen this happening in the last year of thier 10 year term. Tristrame I am a democrat but I just dont put any faith in this ixit poll. Trasfers and 2 3 4 prefrences will decide the next goverment. Its all to play for.

jank

i would take this poll with a pich of salt. I expect FF to be in the high 30's and Labout nearing the 11%

Sometime exit polls are right sometimes they are wrong ala 2004 US elections and even some of the exit polls the BBC carry out.

Just wait and see how it pans out..

slumped

Can I be the first to say I am thrilled for FF and Bertie. Delighted to see him returned for another 5 years.

Would be even happier if he took SF with him but PDs and Indos will do.

S

JonnyXXX

My God I hope you are right. I really couldnt face FF in power again. Think I would have to leave the country!!

ninebeanrows

Terrible news this morning alright.

There is some shadow of hope though, Greens + Labour + Fine Gael are just 1 percentage point of Fianna Fail, with abit of luck perhaps these folks will do better once counting begins and at least put pressure on FF to do something it said it wouldn't ie. a coalition with Sinn Fein, which would cause riots.

DMC

Its a bit melodramatic to say yer all upping sticks. Its a pity Ryanair arent having their seat sale today... :rolleyes:

The last two BBC general election exit polls were spot on, iirc, the 2005 on was accurate to within one seat. Also, exit polls are of a higher sample than any newspaper, who average around 1000 people.

100gSoma

haha.... from www.breakingnews.ie

I hate sensationalist journo headlines like this...


Exit poll gives Ahern record third term
25/05/2007 - 08:52:36

tuppence

DMC wrote:

Which only means they asked a few people at that polling station, and spent the next half hour at another, to build up the picture.

I hope it goes the other way but I fear the worst. Its not about how long they were there for its that they got 3000 people didnt they all around the country? Its all about transfers I would say. Fingers crossed or by the look of it there'l be another wave of emigration yet!

Jackz

This poll was pretty accurate last year.

100gSoma

Prime Minister Bertie Ahern, who heads the center-right Progressive Democrats, voted in Dublin yesterday. Results are not expected until tomorrow because of the tallying system. (luke macgregor/reuters)

Do these guys even read what they print?

Heinrich

Why bother counting votes if the exit polls make such wonderful predictions? Let's wait and see what the tallpeople are getting paid to do.

Lennoxschips

PDs need not worry if FF are on nearly 42%. They'll get plenty of transfers.