Big Name Casualties

Jonny Arson

I may put a score on Mary Harney or Ruairi Quinn

Who else do you think could be surprisingly vulnerable for getting the chop by the voters?

DeVore

McDougal (sic). That muppet simply MUST get kicked out of Justice.

If he is given the boot I will be heading to his political grave with a big bag of yokes and the Now Thats What I Call Techno 1,274 compilation CD.

PDie Die Die.

DeV.

ateam

Jonny Arson wrote:

I may put a score on Mary Harney or Ruairi Quinn

Who else do you think could be surprisingly vulnerable for getting the chop by the voters?

Mary Harney is pretty safe I would have thought? I've heard reports that Pat Carey, Joan Burton, Liz O'Donnell, Fiona O'Malley, Tom Parlon, Jackie Healy Rae and Roisin Shortall are in trouble.

Badabing

Joan Burton is in trouble i belive, dublin west is 3 seats with Lenihan guranteed 1 seat its a dog fight for the other 2. Quinn has never really bein safe in dublin se so it wudn't be a major major shock if he missed out.

Zaph

I hope Jackie Healy Rae misses out. That man's an embarrassment to national politics. Beverly Flynn and Michael Lowry are others I'd like to see go, it's a disgrace that people would still vote for crooks like them, but unfortunately it's unlikely they'll lose their seats. Speaking of crooks, I think Ivor Callely is going to lose his, which will make me very happy indeed. And of course if a miracle did happen and McDowell failed to get back in there would be much rejoicing.

E92

I'd be very surprised if Quinn loses his seat tbh. I know he barely got in last time, and Lucinda Creighton is within a very good chance of getting a seat(I hope she does,at Michael Mc Dowells expense preferably or alternativly that FF have no seat here). The fact remains that Mc Dowell has never held his seat in the Dáil. I still think he will get in, and FF will have no seat here, with Creighton taking that seat.

philologos

ateam wrote:

Mary Harney is pretty safe I would have thought?

RTÉ predict that she'll hold onto her seat unfortunately. She won't be getting my vote in Mid-West anyway. I'd absolutely love it if she lost her seat to Joanne Spain (Sinn Féin). Not very likely but it would be great.

Badabing

Dublin se,That could happen fianna fail had 9000 first preferences in 2002 with 2 candidates and with ryan staying in europe that will have a bearing, it'll be very tight id say 1ff 1fg 1green 1pd.

Agent J

You know im begingin to think that we could finally get FG and FF to unite something.... Get McDowell out!

Seriously i can just see a pub where FF,FG, Labour, Green and even SF all raise a glass together to the though of him being knocked out......

If only.

Badabing

I wouldn't lose any sleep if he lost his seat anyway! it could be between creighton and him for the last seat.

Victor

Dublin SE has five and a half secure seats in a 4 seat constituency.

billy the squid

I think a wipe out of PDs in Limerick would be a shock, considering it is where the party was founded by Des O'Malley.

Brennan hasnt a hope in Limerick West, and the last seat in Limerick East is looking more like a battle between noreen ryan and kieran O'Donnell.

TheVan

Dublin SE is ripe for some big-name loss

I reckon Lucinda Creighton, one FF, McDowell and John Gormley will get in with Ruairí Quinn losing out.

Quinn for several reasons:

1. He came close to losing last time
2. Labour support seems to be dropping in the polls
3. Where I live in Ranelagh, he doesn't seem to have put in the work that other candidates have. Perhaps he has in the other parts of the constituency but not in Ranelagh (I'm doing finals at the moment so I only am aware of anything that arises on my walk to the bus in Donnybrook!)

Also Joan Burton (fingers crossed). I have a feeling we'll see a big FF lose out...someone like Dick Roche or someone similarly incompetent (although don't shout me down on that, I haven't got any figures!)

bemmet

Jim higgins is apparently in some trouble in Dublin West
Real dog fight on here for seats .

Ideo

im from Dub SE and only Jim OCallaghan has come a knocking on doors?! seems decent enough, will prob give him number one. McDowell, meh... Ruari Quinn, I think his time has passed and that Lucinda Creighton, she's not a constitutency politician and i have never heard of her until last year - she seems to have never visited the south city so she wont be getting my vote, or at least very low down the list...

The White Rose

I hope Jackie Healy Rae misses out. That man's an embarrassment to national politics.

Did you see his torchlight procession the other night in Listowel (Tralee?)
It reminded me of the nazis

Gobán Saor

The White Rose wrote:

Did you see his torchlight procession the other night in Listowel (Tralee?)
It reminded me of the nazis

Ah, Listowel and Tralee are in Kerry North, JHR is running in Kerry South. Maybe Killarney?

Voipjunkie

Micheal Woods Dublin NE
And Ivor the engine Dublin NC

[Jackass]

I'm in Dublin SE...I'd LOVE to see McDowel lose his seat...I reckon it's between Michael McDowel and Ruari Quinn...one of the is gone!

Time Magazine

Jakkass wrote:

RTÉ predict that she'll hold onto her seat unfortunately. She won't be getting my vote in Mid-West anyway. I'd absolutely love it if she lost her seat to Joanne Spain (Sinn Féin). Not very likely but it would be great.

Are you mad?

You want Sinn Féin to increase their representation? Have you seen their manifesto? It's an absolute joke. And she would be fecking useless in opposition.

hallelujajordan

I think at least one of three PD bigwigs (Harney,McDowell,O'Donnell) is bound to go. . . Hope its's the ugly bald arrogant one !

Dr Galen

which one????

I'm in Dublin West and the word out here is that Varadkar will take joan Burtons seat. He's been pretty visible around here and as of about 10 mins ago was out on the road sticking thank you stickers over his posters.

Raskolnikov

Ibid wrote:

Have you seen their manifesto? It's an absolute joke. And she would be fecking useless in opposition.

As opposed to the PD manifesto.

Left-wing; bad. Right-wing; good.

Badabing

If brian hayes doesn't make it back in Dublin south west that will be huge and a big shock to fine gael, he has been Enda Kennys prefect around leinster house, i pray to god almighty he loses out again.

Time Magazine

Raskolnikov wrote:

As opposed to the PD manifesto.

Left-wing; bad. Right-wing; good.

No.

PDs: I disagree with but it's all there
SF: is an absolute joke and I still disagree with.

For example they want to spend money on public services but also nationalise Aer Lingus, Irish Ferries and Eircom. What a fecking waste of a few billion that would be, far better spent on hospital beds.

And I don't think the abolition of the Offences Against the State Act is either left-wing or right-wing, it's just stupid. Just patently stupid and dangerous.

LostinBlanch

TheVan wrote:

Dublin SE is ripe for some big-name loss

I reckon Lucinda Creighton, one FF, McDowell and John Gormley will get in with Ruairí Quinn losing out.

Quinn for several reasons:

1. He came close to losing last time
2. Labour support seems to be dropping in the polls
3. Where I live in Ranelagh, he doesn't seem to have put in the work that other candidates have. Perhaps he has in the other parts of the constituency but not in Ranelagh (I'm doing finals at the moment so I only am aware of anything that arises on my walk to the bus in Donnybrook!)

Also Joan Burton (fingers crossed). I have a feeling we'll see a big FF lose out...someone like Dick Roche or someone similarly incompetent (although don't shout me down on that, I haven't got any figures!)

Ivan Yates disagrees with you. He reckons that Lucinda Creighton will top the poll and this will hurt McDowell [fingers crossed] who only gets votes from disaffected FGers seeing as this is natural FG territory. McDowell out! *Touch wood*

Mary Harney to keep her seat as her constituency is now a 4 seater

Raskolnikov

Ibid wrote:

For example they want to spend money on public services but also nationalise Aer Lingus, Irish Ferries and Eircom. What a fecking waste of a few billion that would be, far better spent on hospital beds.

Selling Eircom (well, the infrastructure network anyway) was disastrous for the country. My bill has actually rocketed since the privatisation of Eircom.

Selling Irish Ferries resulted in the exploitation of foreign workers by the privatised company.

Since Aer Lingus has been privatised, I haven't seen any reduction in fares. Infact, if anything, charges have actually increased.

Thanks for that PD's. :rolleyes:

Villain

If McDowell or Harney lose their seat I will probably be drunk for a week, I think FF may lose or two big names too.

upmeath

nurse_baz wrote:

the word out here is that Varadkar will take joan Burtons seat. He's been pretty visible around here and as of about 10 mins ago was out on the road sticking thank you stickers over his posters.

I saw that driving home through Castleknock this evening, the Doc must be quite confident, would I be right in saying he got the highest number of first preferences in the State in the local elections of 2004? Could be on course for junior ministry in health if FG get into power?

Time Magazine

Raskolnikov wrote:

Selling Eircom (well, the infrastructure network anyway) was disastrous for the country. My bill has actually rocketed since the privatisation of Eircom.

That's not a reasons to buy it back. Also, look into changing your service provider.

Selling Irish Ferries resulted in the exploitation of foreign workers by the privatised company.

That's not a reason to buy it back.

Since Aer Lingus has been privatised, I haven't seen any reduction in fares. Infact, if anything, charges have actually increased.

Aer Lingus was sold a year ago and oil has risen since then, give it time. Also, that's not a reason to buy it back.

Thanks for that PD's. :rolleyes:

That's not a reason to vote SF.

Pherekydes

hallelujajordan wrote:

Hope its's the ugly bald arrogant one !

So Harney, then?

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

DadaKopf

LostinBlanch wrote:

Ivan Yates disagrees with you. He reckons that Lucinda Creighton will top the poll and this will hurt McDowell [fingers crossed] who only gets votes from disaffected FGers seeing as this is natural FG territory. McDowell out! *Touch wood*

Mary Harney to keep her seat as her constituency is now a 4 seater

I think Yates may be right. Although Quinn has been conspicuous by his absence, there are very strange anomolies which might hurt McDowell.

The anomaly is this: many Dublin SE voters (particularly Donnybrook, Ranelagh, Ballsbridge, Rathmines) vote both Green and PD.

But I think (hope) the electorate has become a bit more sophisticated this time around and become sick of McDowell. In which case, it's very likely that those traditional PD/Green voters will give their PD preference instead to Lucinda Creighton (FG). There's the added bonus of Barry Andrews being a blow-in and an unknown quanity, which might diminish the FF vote.

I can't figure out my strategy though. I'm thinking Quinn #1, Gormley #2, Creighton #3. My rationale being, (1) I want Ireland to move away from a 2-party system; (2) even if Quinn is eliminated, my transfers go to the Greens who I'd like to see in government either way; (3) since Gormley is likely to get a surplus, my vote may then transfer to Creighton.

Problem is, if I vote for Quinn, that's it for my ballot.

Any suggestions?

burnedfaceman

upmeath wrote:

I saw that driving home through Castleknock this evening, the Doc must be quite confident, would I be right in saying he got the highest number of first preferences in the State in the local elections of 2004? Could be on course for junior ministry in health if FG get into power?

yes you would be right in saying he polled highest in local elections, i have heard that higgins is in trouble and would love to see FG/Lab gain two seats here

FTA69

DeVore wrote:

I will be heading to his political grave with a big bag of yokes and the Now Thats What I Call Techno 1,274 compilation CD.

Small fellas are filthy things.

dereko1969

burnedfaceman wrote:

yes you would be right in saying he polled highest in local elections, i have heard that higgins is in trouble and would love to see FG/Lab gain two seats here

i think higgins is safe, given his huge profile in helping people dealing with management companies in the new estates, i know he's getting my sisters vote who would previously have voted either labour/fine gael so i reckon joan burton will lose out unfortunately, whatever about her voice she knows her stuff.

burnedfaceman

i voted this morning varadkar/burton/higgins i would like to see the three of them go through but id imagine lenihan will retain seat dont know why as he has done sweet FA for the area. i got a letter from lenihan in the door this morning in which he plans to address issues such as education facilities, public transport and developing the hospital in blanchardstown. what a joke he has done nothing to address any of these topics from what i can see. higgins and burton have always raised awareness of the area from dail oireachtas reports i have seen. i wish to see an alternative government and i believe higgins will always be in opposition and hence my low preference for him. sure can only see what happens now but i think varadkar will definitely win a seat for FG here and other one will be fought out between higgins and burton.

LostinBlanch

DadaKopf wrote:

I think Yates may be right. Although Quinn has been conspicuous by his absence, there are very strange anomolies which might hurt McDowell.

The anomaly is this: many Dublin SE voters (particularly Donnybrook, Ranelagh, Ballsbridge, Rathmines) vote both Green and PD.

But I think (hope) the electorate has become a bit more sophisticated this time around and become sick of McDowell. In which case, it's very likely that those traditional PD/Green voters will give their PD preference instead to Lucinda Creighton (FG). There's the added bonus of Barry Andrews being a blow-in and an unknown quanity, which might diminish the FF vote.

I can't figure out my strategy though. I'm thinking Quinn #1, Gormley #2, Creighton #3. My rationale being, (1) I want Ireland to move away from a 2-party system; (2) even if Quinn is eliminated, my transfers go to the Greens who I'd like to see in government either way; (3) since Gormley is likely to get a surplus, my vote may then transfer to Creighton.

Problem is, if I vote for Quinn, that's it for my ballot.

Any suggestions?

Vote tactically i.e. all the way down the ballot paper leaving out those candidates / parties that you don't want to get in.

Be The Holy

Varadkar has no intention of giving up his job as a doctor and is supposedly training as a consultant. How he can do the two jobs and represent the constituency effectively? I wont fall for any of his lion bar gimmicks!! Burton has consistently exposed tax dodgers and it would be a true pity to lose her.

jjbrien

Donnie Cassidy is on the way out. At least we wont see in and his silly wig anymore.

Zebra3

McDowell and/or Harney to go.

I heard people in Harney's camp expect to be out of a job soon.

Fingers crossed.

ateam

Zebra3 wrote:

McDowell and/or Harney to go.

I heard people in Harney's camp expect to be out of a job soon.

Fingers crossed.

Hate to disappoint you but the constituency she's in is expanding from a three seat to a four seat constituency. So with that in mind, it is very unlikely that she'll lose her seat.

Money Shot

Be The Holy wrote:

Varadkar has no intention of giving up his job as a doctor and is supposedly training as a consultant. How he can do the two jobs and represent the constituency effectively? I wont fall for any of his lion bar gimmicks!! Burton has consistently exposed tax dodgers and it would be a true pity to lose her.

Please see the other thread about Varadkar being a part time TD. Someone contacted him, and he has already given up his medical job to assume full time politics. He WILL be a full time TD.

It's a real dog fight in Dublin West. Of all the big names to loose a seat, I would love to see Brian Lenihan loose out. He hasn't done anything whatsoever that I could see campaign wise, a bit like the last five years, where he has done absolutely nothing for the area.

I don't understand politics whereby certain people seem to be guaranteed their seats regardless of performance. I'd like to see Higgins retain his seat, and I'd like to see if Vardakar is all spin (which I suspect) or if he will make a decent public representative. Joan Burton desereves the last seat a lot more than Lenihan. I'm not so sure if she will loose out - I think Higgins could be under more pressure now that the constituency has been re organised.

Jackie Healy Rae.

Hopefully...

The Sparrow

DadaKopf wrote:

There's the added bonus of Barry Andrews being a blow-in and an unknown quanity, which might diminish the FF vote.

Barry Andrews is running in Dun Laoghaire Rathdown and I would imagine he would be one of the favourites there.

You probably mean his cousin, Chris Andrews?

I hope McDowell gets booted out... Boy would that be sweet...:D

BoozyBabe

God, I hope that Fat Fcuk Harney loses her seat, but no boubt she won't!!!

upmeath

jjbrien wrote:

Donnie Cassidy is on the way out. At least we wont see in and his silly wig anymore.

Yeah I read an article in this week's Meath Chronicle, his entire support has been merged into Meath West while he runs in Longford/Westmeath. Is it a bad choice on his part or were party HQ keen to stop him splitting the Brady/Dempsey vote in MW? His supporters in Coole reckon he's lost 2000 votes there because of the constituency redraw, which puts Mary O'Rourke in a very healthy position and leaves him starting on the back foot in a constituency he doesn't even live in. It'll be very interesting to see how that turns out.

Meath East to elect Shane McEntee, Dominic Hannigan and Mary Wallace, in that order
Meath West to return Noel Dempsey and Damien English with Peter Higgins/Graham Geraghty grabbing a second seat for FG. Go on Inda!

P.S. Does anybody see Labour gaining from SF in Kerry North? I'd love to see Martin Ferris go! Terry O'Brien is running on a ticket which highlights the needs of the disabled and other health/welfare issues, I'd love to see him take the seat there.

Our man in Havana

Harney has probably the only secure PD seat in the country. Her constituency has been expanded from 3 to 4 seats. I can't see her going.

Now Tom Parlon is a different story. All but gone. He even sent me a text this morning begging me to vote for him.

ArthurDent

I'd love to see Harney and McDowell out, but will settle for one of them. Also would be quite happy to see Healy Rae and Beverly Flynn dissappear from the dail

Carcharodon

Deleted User wrote:

Jackie Healy Rae.

Hopefully...

Ive been discussing him with a couple of people that are from that area and they having nothing but good things to say about him to be fair. He gets things done and is always available to help people.
Granted he may not seem like he is up to much but there are alot worse out there to be fair.

upmeath

Money Shot wrote:

It's a real dog fight in Dublin West. Of all the big names to loose a seat, I would love to see Brian Lenihan loose out. He hasn't done anything whatsoever that I could see campaign wise, a bit like the last five years, where he has done absolutely nothing for the area

[edited - bloody eejit you never name someone like that on this forum - banned]