Major swing in election for Fianna Fail - Rainbow down 4%

BillFarkinAllen

FF 41 %

FG 27 %
LAB 10 %
SF 9 %
Greens 6 %
PD 2 %


Thats a major swing for FF in the latest poll.

Latest Irish times poll indicates next Government will not be FG/LAB/GREEN:)

P.S Got this from Politics.ie

amc759

where did you get these results

aliveandkicking

FF up 5 since last week :eek:

copacetic

compared to the poll in todays indo, thats actually an increase of 1% for the rainbow. 42% for rainbow in the indo and 43% above.

Also those figures above leave only 5% for independents, 4% less than most of the other polls!!

I find in hard to believe that FF has taken 4% from the independents especially since most of the independents are sure things in their races..

philologos

if FG / Lab / Greens (43%) pulled together they would be equal to that of FF / PD's (43%) so ultimately Sinn Féin could determine the next government if the results did turn out like that.

Dampsquid

FF's 41% will probably equate to 48% of dail seats. (like last time)

E92

I have read the poll results. Does anyone seriously believe that Labour could have dropped 3% after Pat Rabbitte's performance on Wednesday? Everyone said that he was the best by a mile of the 4 leaders that were there. As for a 'Rainbow meltdown' FG are down 1%, the Greens are up 1%.

Can anyone explain how in the three polls that have been made available in the past 24 hrs
-how Sinn Féin are up 3 one poll yet down 1 in another
-how FF are up 2,1 or 5 dependiong on which poll you choose to believe
-how FG are on 25 or 27% again depending on what you choose to believe
-how Labour could possibly have lost 3% after the leaders debate, which they have according to the TNS/MRBI poll
-how the Greens have either lost 1, stayed static or gained 2?

I'm not saying by any measure of means that this or indeed any of the 3 polls over the weekend are good for FG and I'd be lying if I said that I was in any way happy having read them, but the thing is that our vote is holding steady and that while Fianna Fail are gaining, they are not gaining at Fine Gael's expense(too much). As one person said on politics.ie 'the problem with Fine Gael is that they take opinion polls too seriously'. Personally, I feel that the debate of Bertie vs Enda should not have taken place so early, however it could be that it was a spur of the moment thing in that FF are just getting a bounce after thursday night, and that the bounce will have evaporated by next Thursday, and obviously I hope that was what will have happened by Thursay. I no more belive that Labour are down 3 than I believed last weekend that Sinn Féin were down 2 after the historic events in Northern Ireland last week. I also no more believe that FF are up 5 no more than I believed it when TNS/MRBI had Fine Gael on 31% only a few weeks ago. Clearly everyone in FG has to do their level best over the next 4 days, but as the old saying goes 'the only poll that matters is the poll on Election Day'.

These poll results do underline the critical need for the alternative to have a rock solid transfer pact though. I hope Enda and Pat will start mentioning it sooner rather than later.

Bottle_of_Smoke

Or FF/Lab

ArthurDent

Dampsquid wrote:

FF's 41% will probably equate to 48% of dail seats. (like last time)

Perhaps, but what will the PD's 2% bring in - certainly not 8 to 10 seats

cm2000

fantastic news if it's accurate but i doubt it is. no way independants have lost that much

DMC

E92 wrote:

I have read the poll results. Does anyone seriously believe that Labour could have dropped 3% after Pat Rabbitte's performance on Wednesday. Everyone said that he was the best by a mile of the 4 leaders that were there.

I have slight suspicions regarding the Irish Times poll, since they changed their methodology prior to the start of the election. I'd like to see what the pollsters actually say this time round before passing further comment.

WRT Pat Rabbitte, maybe the "menopausal Paris Hilton" remark didn't go down too well with Mná na hÉireann. His personal approval has gone down too.

AlanOB

ArthurDent wrote:

Perhaps, but what will the PD's 2% bring in - certainly not 8 to 10 seats

We'll get 3 if we're lucky, 4 if we're very lucky.

Harney will hold albeit not as comfortably as in 2002, McDowell should just about hold but it's shakey, Grealish still has a chance of clinging on, and Liz O'Donnell has an outside chance only as does Tim O'Malley.

The other three are probably gone and I doubt any pickups will be made unless
O'Gorman or Frank McNamara can spring a huge surprise.

Bottle_of_Smoke

DMC wrote:

WRT Pat Rabbitte, maybe the "menopausal Paris Hilton" remark didn't go down too well with Mná na hÉireann. His personal approval has gone down too.

You could well be on to sometihng there

blorg

copacetic wrote:

I find in hard to believe that FF has taken 4% from the independents especially since most of the independents are sure things in their races..

Well this is the problem with the opinon polling, we just get overall percentages for the entire country which is not very helpful and only tangentially related to how the individual constituencies come in on the day. Secondary preferences, which are sort of important in our electoral system, are completely ignored.

It's particularly marked for the smaller parties of course, 2% nationwide for the spawn-of-hell party is meaningless as their support base is very concentrated. The key is whether X Y and Z can scrape their seats in constituencies A B and C.

EDIT: So it's perfectly possible that independent support drops overall while the safe independent seats remain unaffected. All that requires is that independent support drops in the areas where there aren't safe independent seats.

Transfer pacts are beloved of the parties but sometimes I think the apparatchiks behind them are oblivious to the fact that the electorate can actually transfer whichever way we like - and generally do. I would strongly suspect there will be a lot of Labour-Green transfers (both ways) before going to FG, despite the pact, and indeed a lot of FF transfers going elsewhere than the PDs (SF and then Labour/Green to a lesser extent - even FG likely to do better.) The Greens in particular are potentially a strong second preference across many different first preferences.

This poll is going against the trend of all the others so far.
I'm going to wait until the next poll before panicing too much

SeanW

I guess this just highlights the need for all of us who don't think the present gov't is doing the business, that we need to get out there and vote their ar*es out the door!

Bateman

ronoc wrote:

This poll is going against the trend of all the others so far.
I'm going to wait until the next poll before panicing too much

Isn't this the last one before the big day?

DMC

SeanW wrote:

I guess this just highlights the need for all of us who don't think the present gov't is doing the business, that we need to get out there and vote their ar*es out the door!

And who better to give the kick up the arse than Madam Editor.

copacetic

E92 wrote:

Can anyone explain how in the three polls that have been made available in the past 24 hrs
-how Sinn Féin are up 3 one poll yet down 1 in another
-how FF are up 2,1 or 5 dependiong on which poll you choose to believe
-how FG are on 25 or 27% again depending on what you choose to believe
-how Labour could possibly have lost 3% after the leaders debate, which they have according to the TNS/MRBI poll
-how the Greens have either lost 1, stayed static or gained 2?

I suppose the margin of error of 3% in most of the polls explains a lot of it.

ateam

Perhaps Trevor lost ground for the Greens by coming across as unprofessional and weak in the televised debate.

With the prospect of a change of Taoiseach and government being muted in the media, perhaps the public are reconsidering change and sticking with the status quo. Many people probably only heard Kenny for the first time for a long period on Thursday night.

is_that_so

Considering the steady ebb and flow of positions, 5% is hard to believe unless the don't knows has dropped remarkably. Nothing spectacular happened this week that would suggest any reason for it. At best Bertie shaded the debate.
Having seen him rally the troops today they don't believe it either and are not taking any chances.

At worst we are looking at a minority government, and I would expect Labour ,with Pat Rabbitte, will stay out of a FF government. But would they go in without him? If they do and it all goes pear-shaped9 which it invariably will) they'll suffer the consequences. I don't think they are prepared to take that risk.

At best a slim majority for the alternative. Either way it will be very very tight.

ateam

is_that_so wrote:

Considering the steady ebb and flow of positions, 5% is hard to believe unless the don't knows has dropped remarkably. Nothing spectacular happened this week that would suggest any reason for it. At best Bertie shaded the debate.

Bertie's speech at Westminster and the leaders debate on Thursday may not have been spectacular but they were high profile events that attained huge media coverage. Moreover, in a poll in the Sunday Independent today, 75% of the participants said Bertie won the debate.

Dandesav

I don't think this can be put down to the margin of error- that makes three polls that have FF up and FG/Lab down.
Perhaps it's an initial reaction to the debate as the poll was taken on the Friday. There is still time for FG/Lab to make up ground- the momentum was with them until yesterday, it can't just evaporate so quickly.

It also highlights the need to KEEP TIGHT TRANSFERS!!!!!!!!

is_that_so

ateam wrote:

Bertie's speech at Westminster and the leaders debate on Thursday may not have been spectacular but they were high profile events that attained huge media coverage.

True, but not enough to justify a 5% change in a week, even if you FF boys think so. Still all to play for.

AlanOB

I think this is evidence that despite efforts by the media to obfuscate the fact that Ahern caned Enda in the debate, the public in general were able to judge for themselves and quite a few have moved from the undecided camp accordingly.

ateam

is_that_so wrote:

True, but not enough to justify a 5% change in a week, even if you FF boys think so. Still all to play for.

The support was always there for Fianna Fail. They won 42% of the vote in 2002. Better work on the ground and the muted prospect of a Rainbow coalition has culminated in a swing of support to Fianna Fail.

cm2000

just thinking that ff have run a clever campaign if this poll is anything to go by. for the first weeks of the election i was bombarded with fg/lab/gr leaflets and campaigners and heard nothing from ff -dublin west btw- but in the past 4/5 days thats all ive been confronted with, leaflets campaigners at my door.etc. lenihan seems to have waited until enda was shown up in the debate until he launched his campaign.

is_that_so

That was courtesy of a FG meltdown. FF will lose seats this time around. It's just a question of how many. The poll highlights the closeness of the election. I'd question a sudden 5% swing ,whatever way it went. The trends of this election don't support it in my view.

EDIT: A similar poll done by the Irish Times at the same time in the last election overstated FF support by 4%.
- The Week In Politics

funktastic

People are thinking more about the economy in the days running up to the election. FG/Lab peaked too early and I can't see them getting in now.

Time Magazine

There's no way FF are on 41% tbh. The dissent against them relative to last time is huge. I'll put my hat on them not being 35-38% on D-Day.

copacetic

Anyone else think that this poll could have come at a bad time for FF? Their only hope imo was a massive turnout on their core vote based on poor showing in the polls. The 'we have to vote as they really need us' brigade. This poll takes that edge off that impetus and I wouldn't be surprised if it means that they end up with less first prefs than they would have gotten without this poll in the field..

The_Minister

ArthurDent wrote:

Perhaps, but what will the PD's 2% bring in - certainly not 8 to 10 seats

The PDs were, according to the Irish Times, going to get 2% in the polls when they went in last election.

johnnyrotten

E92 wrote:

I have read the poll results. Does anyone seriously believe that Labour could have dropped 3% after Pat Rabbitte's performance on Wednesday?

Absolutely

LostinBlanch

The_Minister wrote:

The PDs were, according to the Irish Times, going to get 2% in the polls when they went in last election.

Well hopefullythis time they're gonners. I'll be down the pub when I hear that fcuker McDowell is out of the Dáil. The only thing is that the bloody fecker will get back into legal practice. Couldn't we just send him off to Rockall?

Lennoxschips

ateam wrote:

government being muted in the media

you sir, have brought laughter into my life

ninty9er

E92 wrote:

I have read the poll results. Does anyone seriously believe that Labour could have dropped 3% after Pat Rabbitte's performance on Wednesday? Everyone said that he was the best by a mile of the 4 leaders that were there. As for a 'Rainbow meltdown' FG are down 1%, the Greens are up 1%.

Can anyone explain how in the three polls that have been made available in the past 24 hrs

This one is the only one taken AFTER the Leaders debate, while RedC was taken on Wednesday, Thursday AND Friday.

They want FF/Labour on the doorsteps and FF/Labour is what they're gonna get!!

Diorraing

Finally, the Irish people have woken up. The results speak for themselves, deny them all you want. I'm guessing people actually read the FG manifesto - its as good as a piece of paper telling people not to vote for them. Surprised at Labour going down more than FG - they were the only ones who gave the "Rainbow" farce any sense of credibility.

mickd

ninty9er wrote:

This one is the only one taken AFTER the Leaders debate, while RedC was taken on Wednesday, Thursday AND Friday.

They want FF/Labour on the doorsteps and FF/Labour is what they're gonna get!!

Agreed100%. Can you image Rabbitte fighting to stay in opposition.

ninty9er

mickd wrote:

Agreed100%. Can you image Rabbitte fighting to stay in opposition.

I actually have that picture in my head and I must say it brought a to my face.

at least 5 people said it straight out to me and way more people in body language that they just couldn't trust Enda to run the country...at least Bertie was Minister for Finance and had experience as Minister for Trade and Labour...he practically engineered the partnership framework

redspider

blorg wrote:

Well this is the problem with the opinon polling, we just get overall percentages for the entire country which is not very helpful and only tangentially related to how the individual constituencies come in on the day. Secondary preferences, which are sort of important in our electoral system, are completely ignored.

It's particularly marked for the smaller parties of course, 2% nationwide for the spawn-of-hell party is meaningless as their support base is very concentrated. The key is whether X Y and Z can scrape their seats in constituencies A B and C.

I fully agree with you.

I've posted the same point here several times in this and other forums and indeed I've been bleating on about it for years and indeed decades now, as no doubt others have as well. However, our voice is not being heard.

This country mistakenly gets caught up each time in election polls when it is known by all and sundry, politicians and the media, that the opinion polls are not an accurate predictor of the election.

We have 43x constituencies with 43x mini-elections, each one with its own vagaries, personalities, characters, traditions, etc. An opinion poll of 1000+ people carried out by Red-C or whoever and attempting to map that onto those 43 constitituencies is meangingless and prone to major inaccuracies.

But do we ever learn? It doesnt look like it form the mileage that these polls seem to get ....

Redspider

nesf

Link on the Irish Times site is up:

http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/frontpage/2007/0521/1179498487415.html?digest=1

nesf

Ibid wrote:

There's no way FF are on 41% tbh. The dissent against them relative to last time is huge. I'll put my hat on them not being 35-38% on D-Day.

Bluntly, there is every chance that FF are on 41%. a) The people are fickle and b) it's just a poll. The level of accuracy in these things isn't great +/- 3% is a "best estimate" to be fair. Don't rule out the polls being wrong (not to say this one is right, just I wouldn't make claims to fact excluding anything based on them when traditionally the figure isn't hugely unusual, if it was the PDs at 12% I'd agree with you).

is_that_so wrote:

EDIT: A similar poll done by the Irish Times at the same time in the last election overstated FF support by 4%.
- The Week In Politics

Afaik, they adjust their figures to take account for this since that election and "mark down" FF and "mark up" FG to compensate. Not the most accurate way of doing things, especially when their research isn't made public (for obvious reasons).

copacetic

nesf wrote:

Link on the Irish Times site is up:

http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/frontpage/2007/0521/1179498487415.html?digest=1

interesting that FF get the video ad up beside that story...

nesf

copacetic wrote:

interesting that FF get the video ad up beside that story...

Heh. I wouldn't read into that much tbh.

Tá Mé Gaeilge

Is it just me or is FF hopeless anyway- They have nobody to go into government with. Both Labour and the Greens have ruled it out in recent weeks. FF ruled out SF the other day so they have no friends. Their only hope is that PDs will turn around and say oh we suddenly have confidence in you again; but even at that they will have at most 43% Looks more and more likely that SF will come into use by one side

nesf

Tá M&#233 wrote: »

Is it just me or is FF hopeless anyway- They have nobody to go into government with.

Eh, I disagree. Labour and the Greens are committed to the rainbow now but after the election it is every party for themselves and if by cutting a "deal with the devil" they believe they can get enough of their manifesto enacted they'll sit beside FF. They after all want primarily to be in power and affect change in this country, who they are "in bed with" is a secondary concern I imagine. Whether a FF/Lab government would last a full term is very much open to question though.

PH01

To me these polls are too volatile to be believed. If they were fluctuating between 1 and 2 percent then they would be more believable.

A 5% gains in such a small sample are suspect.

road_high

Opinion polls, opinion polls...I really would like to see them banned in the week before an election.
They certainly wouldn't change my voting intenetions. I want to see FF in opposition. I think it's so bad for democracy to have one party with unbroken power for so long.. Sure next we'll have FF rewriting the constitution giving them an unlimited hold on power!

ednwireland

ninty9er wrote:

at least 5 people said it straight out to me and way more people in body language that they just couldn't trust Enda to run the country...at least Bertie was Minister for Finance and had experience as Minister for Trade and Labour...he practically engineered the partnership framework

and you can trust bertie huge overspends ministers running projects hat never get anywhere with no accountabiity (ppars e voting, integrated ticketing ) infrastructure in a mess traffic gridlock, no public transport, infrastructure projects, high inflation, empty new houses around the country held up by tax breaks, people on hospital trolleys - 30 last week in cork, only falling cos its summer) oh yeh i'd trust bertie to do a good job muppet leading muppets
btw i run my own buisiness - just get hammered by red tape everywhere.
i really wonder what world people live in when they want to see ff re-elected its not mine thats for sure

joecoote

Opinion polls in multi-party countries have to be taken with a grain of salt. Lacking a single party getting an overall majority of 1st preferences, it's the distribution of transfers that are of paramount importance. I do believe, however, that FF support on 1st preference votes has increased. As the election nears, the opinions of voters harden. However, the Irish Times's poll is a best case scenario for FF. It's still bad news for the PD's. FF will have to look beyond the PD's for contiuation in government.

The election in the last week will simply be between two messages. FF will tell the electorate to vote for them because they have a proven track record on the economy. If you vote for the other parties, you will have a hard time paying for your mortgages.

The opposition message is that we will manage the economy better; getting rid of budgetary waste and reliance on vested interests. However, they do not have a recent proven track record.

At the end of the day , even people who are dissatisfied with the current situation will stick down a preference for FF somewhere on the ballot paper. People vote for pennies - not ideals.

Speaking to a FF supporter/contributer last week, he told me genuinely that he didn't care who got into government. His assertion was that the modern Irish economy had tied people into a way of life they will not be able to adandon. He pointed out that many of his customers use credit cards to make daily purchases. Five/ten years ago that was unheard of. People are building bigger homes than they need. Every extra square metre has to be paid for in their mortgages.

I've go to hand it to FF, their socio-economic engineering should, hypothetically, keep them in power for the next 30 to 40 years.

Voipjunkie

Tá M&#233 wrote: »

Is it just me or is FF hopeless anyway- They have nobody to go into government with. Both Labour and the Greens have ruled it out in recent weeks. FF ruled out SF the other day so they have no friends. Their only hope is that PDs will turn around and say oh we suddenly have confidence in you again; but even at that they will have at most 43% Looks more and more likely that SF will come into use by one side

It is you

You seem to be under the impression that a party or parties need over 50% to get into Government

If FF got 41% then they could get 78+ seats if the PDs hold 4 seats then they are done they still have Healy Rae others to put them over the line

The Greens have not ruled out FF

And if the numbers stack up there is no way that the Labour party are going to volunteer for another 5 years on the opposition benches rather than go with FF seriously which is better go with FF and get most of your policy platform implemented or sit on the opposition side watching the Greens or worse SF getting their policies implemented

Basically the FG/Lab/Greens need to win at least 79 seats to have any hope of cobbling together a deal with Independents

Of course that is if you believe the opinion poll I doubt that FF got that big a bounce from the debate although Bertie did run rings around Enda