Really stupid maths type question...

Flipper

Background: Playing the 1/2 NLH in Killarney, we had a player who was "bored" and moved all in UTG for €150. I think Devore called with some KJ trash and won. Pusher had 26os

Question is:
How many of the 220 hands should you call with?
If no one was left to act, would you call with 22?
How about 33?

phantom_lord

any pair, any decent ace, any broadway.

Mellor

Was he blind? I'd move in bored with the boots if I felt like it,
but I call with any hand were I was probably ahead,
any ace, J10+, 55+
I dunno about 22 or 33 as you are racing most of the time, and the times when he has an over pair outweighs the times when he is dominated or has 2x (against 33)

Oh, and there are 169 hands, not 220,

Flipper

yes he was all in blind - before the cards were even dealt. I'm only using this as an example.

I'm asking what's the mathematical answer. Obviously, will only be winning if your opponent has a 2 but 33 is winning if he has a 2 or a 3. 44 is winning if he has a 2, 3 or a 4 and so on.

Hitman Actual

BE = 49.5% of the time (153/150 odds).

So any hand here that has 49.5%+ equity is theoretically profitable to call with.

Sirtoyou

i think any pair or any 2 coordinated 9/10 or higher is acceptable.
important ur last to act obviously

ocallagh

From what I can see (providing nobody else to act)

any pair
any ace
any king
any suited Q
Q5o+
J7s+
J8o+
T7s+
T9o+
98s+

White Knight

Flipper wrote:

How many of the 220 hands should you call with?

169 unique starting hands

edit: mellor got there ahead of me

nicnicnic

Q7 or better if last to act

AS_PokerKing

nicnicnic wrote:

Q7 or better if last to act

i go with this as well, this guy didn't get 6th in the IO for nothing folks lol;)

cardshark202

lenny_leonard wrote:

BE = 49.5% of the time (153/150 odds).

So any hand here that has 49.5%+ equity is theoretically profitable to call with.

This is only true if you are last to act. You should slightly tighten up your range the more players there are to act behind you. This is obvious though I guess.

Gholimoli

When some one moves in blind they have a random hand.
So what you need to do is to figure out what range of hands is ahead of a random hand.
I think as Nic said its Q7+ so you will show a profit if you call with that.

con_leche

I instacalled a blind AI on the second hand of an IO e200 rebuy sat from MP with KJo.

Unfortunately the monster that was 64o held up...

Hitman Actual

cardshark202 wrote:

This is only true if you are last to act. You should slightly tighten up your range the more players there are to act behind you. This is obvious though I guess.

Yep, I thought that was the question being asked.

Rnger

nicnicnic wrote:

Q7 or better if last to act

i was thinking Q8 or better.. damn so close!

bops

reraise all in blind (but pretend that you've looked)

Mr. Flibble

If you have to you should call blind, provided everyone else folded including those out of turn :-p

Moro Man

White Knight wrote:

169 unique starting hands

edit: mellor got there ahead of me

and where did you come up with this figure???

Mellor

Moro Man wrote:

and where did you come up with this figure???

From the number of starting hands.
13x12/2=78 (number of non pair hand)
times 2 for suited and non suited = 156
plus 13 pairs, 169 possible starting hands

Moro Man

Mellor wrote:

From the number of starting hands.
13x12/2=78 (number of non pair hand)
times 2 for suited and non suited = 156
plus 13 pairs, 169 possible starting hands

Hardly Unique are they?

13x12/2 x4 = 312 number of suited non paired hand

13x12/2 x12 = 936 number of suited non paired hand

13x6 =78 number of pairs

=1326

= 52x51/2 number of possible combinations....

Ste05

Moro man, when dealing with unique hands 7h2s, 7c2s, 7c2s, 7d2c, are all considered 72o (o = off suit) it doesn't matter what the actual suits are, just whether the suits are the same (known as suited) or not (known as off suit)

Similarly with pairs, it doesn't matter what the suits are, just that you have a pair.

Mellor

Moro Man wrote:

Hardly Unique are they?

13x12/2 x4 = 312 number of suited non paired hand

13x12/2 x12 = 936 number of suited non paired hand

13x6 =78 number of pairs

=1326

= 52x51/2 number of possible combinations....

I know that there are 52 cards in a deck. And 1326 is the total number of combinations of those 52 cards.

But from a stats point of view the specific cards are irrelevant. Two black aces will perform just as good as two red ones. Obviously there are 6 ways to make up a certain pocket pair, but its only counted once.
Same for suited and non suited, AK of spades is the same as AK of hearts in hold'em.
So there are 169 different starting hands

Welcome to boards.

Flushdraw

Moro Man wrote:

Hardly Unique are they?

13x12/2 x4 = 312 number of suited non paired hand

13x12/2 x12 = 936 number of suited non paired hand

13x6 =78 number of pairs

=1326

= 52x51/2 number of possible combinations....

Whatever way you jazz up AsAh, AsAd, AsAc, AhAd, AhAc, AdAc, its still a pair of aces!

Moro Man

Flushdraw wrote:

Whatever way you jazz up AsAh, AsAd, AsAc, AhAd, AhAc, AdAc, its still a pair of aces!

Indeed....


If you are calling with half of these 169 hands are you expecting to call 50% of the time????

Mellor

Moro Man wrote:

Indeed....


If you are calling with half of these 169 hands are you expecting to call 50% of the time????

well maybe not, the 169 hands aren't distrubuted evenly,
there are 6 ways to make a pair, 4 ways to make a suited hand, and 12 was to make an unsuited hand. depending on the range you choose to call with, the % of times you call could change even if no. of hands do not

Fremen

This is getting pretty offtopic, but 169 = 13^2, with 13 cards in a suit. Is this coincidence?

Moro Man

Mellor wrote:

well maybe not, the 169 hands aren't distrubuted evenly,
there are 6 ways to make a pair, 4 ways to make a suited hand, and 12 was to make an unsuited hand. depending on the range you choose to call with, the % of times you call could change even if no. of hands do not

This is precisely the point I was making.....


Saying there is 169 starting hands gives people the impression that they are evenly distributed.

The person who started the thread thinks there is 220 starting hands because his little odds book he swallowed told him he is 220/1 to get a pair of aces.


If you based your answer on the 1326 starting hands you would know what % of times you could expect to call given any starting hand criteria.....Any other info from this exercise would be misleading...

Mellor

Moro Man wrote:

Saying there is 169 starting hands gives people the impression that they are evenly distributed.
I don't think anyone here was under the impression that they are evenly distributed. That would be a very silly mistake, one expected from a beginner.

The person who started the thread thinks there is 220 starting hands because his little odds book he swallowed told him he is 220/1 to get a pair of aces.
I'd be fairly certain that the person who started this is aware that there are 169 hands not 0. It was a simple typing mistake. I doubt he uses an odds book either. <SNIP> see mistakes are easy


If you based your answer on the 1326 starting hands you would know what % of times you could expect to call given any starting hand criteria.....Any other info from this exercise would be misleading...
I disagree, anyone who is reading this and/or putting a number on the range required is aware of that hands are uneven and would account for this in a percentage. Having a percentage serves little purpose. The hand range you would call with is far more valuable

.

Mellor

Fremen wrote:

This is getting pretty offtopic, but 169 = 13^2, with 13 cards in a suit. Is this coincidence?

of course its not a coincidence,
if there were 12 cards there would be 144 hands.
its the number in a suit times the number one less than this, plus the number in a suit, its always the square.

Moro Man

Originally Posted by Moro Man
Saying there is 169 starting hands gives people the impression that they are evenly distributed.
I don't think anyone here was under the impression that they are evenly distributed. That would be a very silly mistake, one expected from a beginner.

You think so?

The person who started the thread thinks there is 220 starting hands because his little odds book he swallowed told him he is 220/1 to get a pair of aces.
I'd be fairly certain that the person who started this is aware that there are 169 hands not 0. It was a simple typing mistake.

Very hard to mistype 169 and get 220:rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

I've been trying for a while;)

I doubt he uses an odds book either. And seeing as you're in a nit-picky mood its actually 221/1 to get aces, or any other specific pair.

The odds are 1 in 221 of getting a pair which in betting parlance translates to 220/1..... If you dont think so I'll toss coins all day with you and take my odds of 2/1 from you......;)

If you based your answer on the 1326 starting hands you would know what % of times you could expect to call given any starting hand criteria.....Any other info from this exercise would be misleading...
I disagree, anyone who is reading this and/or putting a number on the range required is aware of that hands are uneven and would account for this in a percentage. Having a percentage serves little purpose. The hand range you would call with is far more valuable

I would rather a no how many times I would expect to call because I already know the hands I'm calling with:cool:

How would I work out profit loss over a 10,000 hands if I dont know how many times I'm calling:)

Mellor

Moro Man wrote:

How would I work out profit loss over a 10,000 hands if I dont know how many times I'm calling:)

I think your taking it a bit far.
The OP said 220, everyone was aware is was a mistake and didn't make a deal out of it. When your tired, drunk, stoned etc it can be easy to make these mistakes. See above I was thinking in terms of 1 in 221 and i made a mistake. Its kinda rude to make assumptions on the OP because of his. Everyone dies it, you're new but you will eventually, I hope people take it less serious as you've done.

As for profit and loss, all hand ranges will show a profit. Even if you call with all 169 (or 1326) hands, you will show a profit in the long run as the expect win rate for calling with all hands is 50%, and due to blinds being in the pot you will get a profitable return on this.
Now, even though its profit, i'm not going to call with that range.

Lazare

Moro Man wrote:

blah blah blah blah blah blah...

Would you be so kind as to let me know where my beloved Star bar is gone.
You just don't taste as good.

Flushdraw

Moro Man wrote:

The person who started the thread thinks there is 220 starting hands because his little odds book he swallowed told him he is 220/1 to get a pair of aces.

Flipper never was much of an odds player but your comments seem quite disrespectful. Can you match his achievements?

http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/player.php?a=r&n=47058

cardshark202

Pretty much no-one can match those achievements, doesn't neccesarily mean they are better or worse. Anyway, the 220 thing was just a mistake, no need to take things overboard about it.