Can Mary Lou take a seat in DC?

yomchi

I've been just chatting to some of the shinners down my and they say the figures are adding up to a definite seat for ML. However in chatting to the chairman of the local FF Cumann he said their figures don't put her in with a chance.

The problem with DC (Dublin Central) for Mary Lou is Cabra. Its always been a Nicky Kehoe vote and a personal one too, not so much a SF vote. Can they be guaranteed to get these personal votes to transfer over to Mary Lou?
And Cabra being Cabra, if you're parents, parents don't hail from there you're not a Cabra person, it is a parochial community - Mary Lou is from Ranelagh originally and now living in Clonsilla.

Can it be done?

The_Minister

All I can say is that I hope she doesn't. She is apparently a rare sight in Europe as MEP.

yomchi

Thats true of late, however when she was first elected she was over there pretty much all the time. Then she dropped the kid and it was decided pretty much a long time back that she would be standing in the generals. I reckon she'll be a good addition to the SF team, she'll bring some colour to the grey boring site that is the current rack of TD'S - Aonghas excluded

The_Minister

Jon wrote:

Then she dropped the kid

Is she married? Or did someone get her pregnant? I never heard about this.

EDIT: edited to spare ballooba's feeling (and because it was rude)

yomchi

Yeh she's married alright, big guy too. Can't remember his name off the top of my head but he pretty much stays in the back ground.

Badabing

I can't see 3 left seats in Dublin central. if Mckenna wasn't running Mcdonald would have a better chance, Gregory is safe as is costello and obiously bertie so its 1 from 3.

yomchi

remember how close Kehoe came in 2002? 74 votes short of stepping on berties toes. As I said though, Kehoe is a Cabra man and is known by everyone, ML has some work to do to keep up

kipple

I think the only 2 safe seats are Bertie and Tony with a 3 way fight for the last 2 seats.

T.

Badabing

kipple wrote:

I think the only 2 safe seats are Bertie and Tony with a 3 way fight for the last 2 seats.

T.

Who are your 3?

ballooba

The_Minister wrote:

Is she married? Or did someone knock her up? I never heard about this.

Just the kind of innapropriate question I would expect of the Rottweiler.

yomchi

kipple wrote:

I think the only 2 safe seats are Bertie and Tony with a 3 way fight for the last 2 seats.

T.

Bertie never goes in alone, his surplus will bring in a 2nd FFer, more than likely Brady while Fitzpatrick loses out. Infact Fitzpatrick got barely a mention in the latest FF pamphlet for the area.
Gregory is more than likely safe, for someone that stays relatively quiet on the ground throughout the year he always pulls the rabbit out on the day. Costello isn't as sure as he was in 2002, he tends to go up and down. He worked hard for the 2002 come backbut has been scarce since then, for 2002he piggy backed on the end of the anti-drugs campaigns which garnered him extra votes too.
I would say its
Aherne
Gregory
Brady
McDonald

oscarBravo

Ballooba, you know where the "report post" button is.

The_Minister

ballooba wrote:

Just the kind of innapropriate question I would expect of the Rottweiler.

Your right, that was insensitive of me.
i don't think that McDowell has ever said anything like that though.

ballooba

oscarBravo wrote:

Ballooba, you know where the "report post" button is.

It's not defamatory or abusive or anything like that. Remarks like that just highlight the PDs for what they are.

I'm happy to let them dig a hole for themselves.

The_Minister

ballooba wrote:

I'm happy to let them dig a hole for themselves.

You judge the PDs on what one supporter said?
Very well.
In future, I am going to judge all Fine Gael'ers by Dontico.
Ergo, all FG'ers are traveller-bashing, facists.
Is that fair?
No its not.
All opinions that I give are mine and mine alone.

ballooba

The_Minister wrote:

You judge the PDs on what one supporter said?

Not necessarily one supporter, I observe lots of others on other fora.
Also websites like the one you posted "RainbowSplits.ie". Nice climbdown btw.
The abuse of Dail Privilege by your leader.
The abuse of the Irish language in the Dail by your leader.
The constant negative campaigning.

Also, one thing which I have heard of but has never been confirmed. That McDowell boasted on tv about throwing beer over his wife at a party to get her to leave.

stepbar

Jon wrote:

Mary Lou is from Ranelagh originally and now living in Clonsilla.

Mary Lou originally Fianna Fail now Sinn Fein, talk about a turncoat. I certainly hope she doesnt get next or near government.

oscarBravo

ballooba, The_Minister: on topic, please.

Cyrus

ballooba wrote:

Not necessarily one supporter, I observe lots of others on other fora.
Also websites like the one you posted "RainbowSplits.ie". Nice climbdown btw.
The abuse of Dail Privilege by your leader.
The abuse of the Irish language in the Dail by your leader.
The constant negative campaigning.

Also, one thing which I have heard of but has never been confirmed. That McDowell boasted on tv about throwing beer over his wife at a party to get her to leave.

hahaha if youd ever met or seen mcdowells wife you'd know this couldnt be true, that women would eat him up and spit him out, she lectured me in smurfit.

i hope the pds and ff get in again and that sinn fein go back where they belong, whatever people are thinking voting in socialists, do they even realise what they are doing

arbeitsscheuer

stepbar wrote:

Mary Lou originally Fianna Fail now Sinn Fein, talk about a turncoat. I certainly hope she doesnt get next or near government.

My sentiments exactly.
You know she's disliked by many within the party, members and candidates alike, mostly those on the Left within SF.

It's a pity. I like the more left-wing elements within SF, but people like Mary Lou and Mitchell McLaughlin do serious damage to their image as the "egalitarian", left-of-centre party.

Badabing

Bertie Ahern has alway managed to get a running mate in in Dublin central so if he fails this time it would be a major upset.

arbeitsscheuer

Cyrus wrote:

whatever people are thinking voting in socialists, do they even realise what they are doing

I have a degree in politics and history, and I have as much if not more knowledge of national and international politics as you do.
And I'm a socialist. Hoping that Joe Higgins will be returned from my constituency as TD once again.

I'm pretty sure I realise what I'm doing, but thanks for your concern:rolleyes:

Cyrus

arbeitsscheuer wrote:

I have a degree in politics and history, and I have as much if not more knowledge of national and international politics as you do.
And I'm a socialist. Hoping that Joe Higgins will be returned from my constituency as TD once again.

I'm pretty sure I realise what I'm doing, but thanks for your concern:rolleyes:

oh, ive a degree in business and law and a masters degree in accountancy and im a qualified aca accountant, and i have as much if not more knowledge than you about how the 'real world' works.

letting labour, the greens or sinn fein in is potentially disastrous for our economy

stepbar

Cyrus wrote:

oh, ive a degree in business and law and a masters degree in accountancy and im a qualified aca accountant, and i have as much if not more knowledge than you about how the 'real world' works.

letting labour, the greens or sinn fein in is potentially disastrous for our economy

Explain how Labour and the Greens are potentially disastrous for the economy?

yomchi

stepbar wrote:

Mary Lou originally Fianna Fail now Sinn Fein, talk about a turncoat. I certainly hope she doesnt get next or near government.

:rolleyes: God forbid no one can take a more positive turn in their politics. Mary Lou was a 'green FFer' she was an active Republican while she was within FF. She was a member of the INC of which Robert Ballagh was chair and founder. She found SF to be more in tune with her line of politics after a brief stay in FF and more power to her.
As for turn coats.. where do I start? How many parties has Pat Rabbitte been a member of?
What about Berties failed election promises, turn coat? and MacDowell the PD watch dog??

The_Minister

stepbar wrote:

Explain how Labour and the Greens are potentially disastrous for the economy?

Labour say they oppose raising corporation tax (we all know why thats bad-flight of business, jobs etc), but they support European tax harmonisation, which in effect would raise our corporation tax.
The Greens keep dodging questions about implementing the national motorway plan, leading some to believe that they want to scrap it.

Thats just one reason for each there are many others

NOTE: I do not believe that the economy will fall apart just because the Greens or Labour are involved.

Cyrus

as above, listen to the tanaiste he has explained all of this before.

at labours core is a belief that corporations and wealthy individuals should subsidise everyone else, increasing corporation tax will remove irelands (given the increase in labour costs) diminishing competitive advantage.

added to that sargant and rabbitt are idiots

stepbar

Cyrus wrote:

as above, listen to the tanaiste he has explained all of this before.

at labours core is a belief that corporations and wealthy individuals should subsidise everyone else, increasing corporation tax will remove irelands (given the increase in labour costs) diminishing competitive advantage.

added to that sargant and rabbitt are idiots

Our competitive advantages are already being eroded!! It cant get much worse under FG / Labour. You have to remember that FG wont agree to an increase in Corpo Tax. Nor will FF. So Labour wont have much say on that one. Ill point you to this post which sums up what FF have contributed to the economy

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=53180245&postcount=13

yomchi

stepbar wrote:

Our competitive advantages are already being eroded!! It cant get much worse under FG / Labour. You have to remember that FG wont agree to an increase in Corpo Tax. Nor will FF. So Labour wont have much say on that one. Ill point you to this post which sums up what FF have contributed to the economy

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=53180245&postcount=13

Q.F.T!

highlight100

I think Mc Kenna has the best chance in poaching the second FF seat,Gregory and Costello should poll well enough to follow Bertie over the line.The FG man Donohoe will poll better than Mary Lou.

A Dub in Glasgo

The_Minister wrote:

Or did someone get her pregnant?

Of course someone got her pregnant or do you believe in devine intervention?

Glenbhoy

Current betting:
Bertie Ahern (FF) 1 - 500
Tony Gregory (Ind) 1 - 6
Mary Lou McDonald (SF) 1 - 5
Joe Costello (Lab) 1-3 2 - 5
Paschal Donohoe (FG) evens
Mary Fitzpatrick (FF) 2 - 1
Patricia McKenna (Green) 10-3 11-4 9 - 4
Cyprian Brady (FF) 5 - 2
Cieran Perry (Ind) 20 - 1
Alan Beirne (FRR) 100 - 1
Paul O' Loughlin (CS) 100 - 1
Tom Prenderville (Ind) 100 - 1

In other words, Bert, Gregory and Mary Lou are shoo-ins, toss up between Donohoe and Costello, with Costello favourite - according to paddypower there will be no 2nd FF seat - if you think differently argue with Mr. Power, not me.

lostexpectation

Jon wrote:

Thats true of late, however when she was first elected she was over there pretty much all the time. Then she dropped the kid and it was decided pretty much a long time back that she would be standing in the generals. I reckon she'll be a good addition to the SF team, she'll bring some colour to the grey boring site that is the current rack of TD'S - Aonghas excluded

the colour orange ironically.

Cyrus

Glenbhoy wrote:

Current betting:
Bertie Ahern (FF) 1 - 500
Tony Gregory (Ind) 1 - 6
Mary Lou McDonald (SF) 1 - 5
Joe Costello (Lab) 1-3 2 - 5
Paschal Donohoe (FG) evens
Mary Fitzpatrick (FF) 2 - 1
Patricia McKenna (Green) 10-3 11-4 9 - 4
Cyprian Brady (FF) 5 - 2
Cieran Perry (Ind) 20 - 1
Alan Beirne (FRR) 100 - 1
Paul O' Loughlin (CS) 100 - 1
Tom Prenderville (Ind) 100 - 1

In other words, Bert, Gregory and Mary Lou are shoo-ins, toss up between Donohoe and Costello, with Costello favourite - according to paddypower there will be no 2nd FF seat - if you think differently argue with Mr. Power, not me.

yeah paddy power knows who is going to get elected, FFS

SeanW

Cyrus wrote:

added to that sargant and rabbitt are idiots

Your debating skills are top notch I see ...

Cyrus

SeanW wrote:

Your debating skills are top notch I see ...

mmmm you see that comment would indicate that my statement is open to debate, it isnt

you can add kenny to the list aswell.

dont get me wrong FF, PD arent perfect but they are the best we have got, thats why FG and Labour have been kept out for 10 years and hopefully will be kept out for another 5. they just havent got people of the calibre of cowan, mcdowell and harney in their ranks.

Guys less of the penis waving posts please.
Stay on topic-thank you.

is_that_so

Cyrus wrote:

i hope the pds and ff get in again and that sinn fein go back where they belong, whatever people are thinking voting in socialists, do they even realise what they are doing

Most likely they are doing what is right from their perspective much as your own perspectives inform your voting patterns.

On topic, I reckon it will be an interesting contest. Bertie will certainly have enough to give a second FF seat a chance. Given the rise of the Greens and the environment being so high profile, I think it will be a battle between the two MEPs. IMO Patricia McKenna would be of greater benefit to the next Dail but it remains to be seen how well SF will be doing after a few weeks of people asking them questions about their "manifesto".

Glenbhoy

Cyrus wrote:

yeah paddy power knows who is going to get elected, FFS

As I said Cyrus, take it up with paddypower if you've got a problem with their prices - in fact, thinking about it, since you're convinced they're wrong (and they often are) why don't you part with a little of your hard earned cash and invest it in your chosen candidate, since paddypower are so far off the mark, you should make a tidy packet.

yomchi

i hope the pds and ff get in again and that sinn fein go back where they belong

And where exactly do they belong? And not to burst your bubble but the 2% party have blown their chances of any credibility, and as for FF..:rolleyes:

patsyh

Jon wrote:

Thats true of late, however when she was first elected she was over there pretty much all the time. Then she dropped the kid and it was decided pretty much a long time back that she would be standing in the generals. I reckon she'll be a good addition to the SF team, she'll bring some colour to the grey boring site that is the current rack of TD'S - Aonghas excluded

So she is gettting paid a fortune by the people of Ireland to represent us in Europe and she doesnt bother doing it. She should have resigned.:mad:

What'll be the craic if she gets elected to the Dail, dont bother going in because somebody has to collect the kid.

yomchi

collecting a kid and having a kid are two very different events Patsy.

As for getting paid a fortune by the people of Ireland.. hmm how so? All monies relevant to the Euroopean parliament are administered by itself. Apart from that no SF MEP, TD or MLA receives the full salary, they receive the average industrial wage.

patsyh

Jon wrote:

collecting a kid and having a kid are two very different events Patsy.

As for getting paid a fortune by the people of Ireland.. hmm how so? All monies relevant to the Euroopean parliament are administered by itself. Apart from that no SF MEP, TD or MLA receives the full salary, they receive the average industrial wage.

Where does the EU get its money.

Fortune is in €80k plus, that every MEP gets, what she does with it is irrelevant. Having a kid prob is 8 or 9 mths off straight away and then your still not going to be able to commit 100% to her job(which is a couple of thousand miles away) therefore she should have resigned and let somebody who was willing to give 100% commitment to the job(and I know alot of Irelands other MEPs dont give 100% commitment but that is not the point here)

redspider

This is a 4 seat constituency and last time out it was 2xFF, 1xLab and 1xInd, correct? I could be wrong on that. Bertie, Gregory, Costellow (Lab), but who was the 4th?

Anyway, here is the latest betting which would seem to indicate that Mary Lou has a good chance of getting in. The hawkers on Mary St and Henry St swear by her. Bertie will get in but I dont think he will pull in somebody else.

Bertie Ahern (FF) 1 - 500
Tony Gregory (Ind) 1 - 6
Mary Lou McDonald (SF) 1 - 5
Joe Costello (Lab) 2 - 5
Paschal Donohoe (FG) evens
Mary Fitzpatrick (FF) 2 - 1
Patricia McKenna (Green) 9 - 4


Here's a question though, why is Patricia McKenna, a well recognised face in Irish politics, running in this constiuency, when she would have more of a chance most likely in anoher constituency? seems a strange choice, and from the Green Party election chairperson too ....

Redspider

redspider

patsyh wrote:

Having a kid prob is 8 or 9 mths off straight away and then your still not going to be able to commit 100% to her job(which is a couple of thousand miles away) therefore she should have resigned and let somebody who was willing to give 100% commitment to the job(and I know alot of Irelands other MEPs dont give 100% commitment but that is not the point here)

No, you cant discriminate against a Woman for having a baby, which is a right to have, and we as a society, both in Ireland and in the EU, need to protect Women's rights in relation to their employment in terms of pregnancy and young-child rearing. (and also Fathers by the way).

Expecting someone to resign because they've had a baby is a very blinkered view.

Redspider

patsyh

redspider wrote:

No, you cant discriminate against a Woman for having a baby, which is a right to have, and we as a society, both in Ireland and in the EU, need to protect Women's rights in relation to their employment in terms of pregnancy and young-child rearing. (and also Fathers by the way).

Expecting someone to resign because they've had a baby is a very blinkered view.

Redspider

You cant have that blanket approach to every job, be realistic her job was a couple of thousand miles away from her home, so yes I think it is appropriate that she should have resigned because the seat which she won came with a responsibility to represent her community/Country and how is she going to do that is she is not attending Parliament and voting on issues that affect her constituency and Country?. Politics is a serious profession that requires big commitments and sacrifices because of the responsibilities that are attached to it.

She was getting paid big bucks for doing nothing, doesn't make sense why her employer should have paid her when she wasn't doing the job that she signed up to do. Wouldnt happen in any other profession

aidan24326

Can Mary Lou take a seat in DC?

-Hopefully not.

yomchi

insightful

E92

I'd love to say no she hasnt a hope but the truth is that Mary Lou will definately get in.She was carrying the coffin of an IRA man not so long ago IIRC. I think Doherty unfortunately will get in in Donegal North East too(at our expense), but I dont think that Joe Mc Hugh for FG should be written off either in Donegal South West. He has a good chance, as does Ciarán Lynch for Labour surprisingly in Cork South Central, he is supposed to be within a good chance of getting the last seat(what would be really nice is if he and either Jerry Buttimer or Deirdre Clune got in and Feel and Fail were reduced to 1 seat(out of 5) here. The likely outcome though is 2XFF(down 1 seat), 2XFG(up1) and 1XGreen though.

yomchi

I'd love to say no she hasnt a hope but the truth is that Mary Lou will definately get in.She was carrying the coffin of an IRA man not so long ago IIRC.

proper reason not to be elected that. If that WAS the case half the labour party shouldn't be elected either :rolleyes:

I never come across so many idiotic reasons for someone not to get elected,
1, she had a baby

2, she carries coffins

3, i don't like her

God forbid she shouldn't get elected because of her parties policies, that just wouldn't be politics would it.

McSpud

In 2002 seats were won in order:
Bertie
Gregory
Costello
Fitzpatrick

Bertie monopolies the vote so serious mistake for FF to go with 3 candidates.

My prediction is:
Bertie
Gregory
McDonald (based on high SF vote last time plus rise in SF vote nationally)
Costello/Donohue/McKenna

FF candidates Fitzpatrick & Brady are very poor. Brady is old enough & afaik never elected. (Bertie gave him his Senate seat)

Bertie sent me a letter a couple of months ago promising an amber filter light at junction (it could be suggested the Taoiseach might have other things to do) onto the Navan Road. He only has a few days before the Election to avoid adding to his broken promises!!! :mad: