Did Michael McDowell burst the housing bubble?

VoidStarNull

In fact the numbers look like this:

TODAY: 90,000 listed properties, 15,000 updates per day
2 YEARS AGO: 10,000 listed properties, 5,000 updates per day

So the number of updates per property has declined...
Looks like the estate agents are slacking off!

whizzbang

VoidStarNull wrote:

In fact the numbers look like this:

TODAY: 90,000 listed properties, 15,000 updates per day
2 YEARS AGO: 10,000 listed properties, 5,000 updates per day

So the number of updates per property has declined...
Looks like the estate agents are slacking off!

or maybe they have to go out and actually work to sell the property rather than just hitting refresh on daft

VoidStarNull

OK, here's another attempt to get some sense out of these numbers.
What I'm trying to figure out here is whether the current market is being
determined by a dearth of buyers (which might be fixed temporarily by
handing out cash to FTBs) or an excess of sellers (which nobody is proposing
to fix).

Back in 2004 the number of properties for sale or rent on Daft was
relatively stable at about 12,000. If we make a reasonable guess that they
stayed on the site for say 3 months before being sold/rented/withdrawn, then
turnover was about 4000 units per month. Prices were rising steadily so
throughput would probably have been a bit higher with stable prices.

If we look at daftwatch today (thanks for the link whizzbang) we can see
that the number for sale or rent has increased at a rate of about 3000 per
month since January.

If buyers have declined dramatically, so that only around 1000 are being
sold/rented per month, then the rate at which properties are being
newly-offered would be about 4000 per month, same as in 2004.

That would imply that buyers have declined 75% since 2004. A less steep
decline would mean that the number of new sellers must be
increasing - if there are still 4000 sold / rented per month then 7000 properties
are being newly offered per month.

So it's inconclusive. Estate agents of course must have the real numbers on
this. Are there any friendly estate agents out there who would care to
(anonymously) offer an opinion?

DéiseGirl

smccarrick wrote:

Providing your finances are such that you are not unduly pressurised by a 1% increase in interest rates- then my congratulations to you. If you would be put in an unbearable position with a 1% rise in rates- seriously advise you sit down and reappraise what you are doing. A decent sized 4 bed that you can see yourself living in longterm sounds nice!

Have done the sums and it works out OK. Obviously would rather not have to factor in the 1% (or more) rise, but that's wishful thinking. :rolleyes:

ray vaughan

check out the web site www.irishpropertywatch.com - it lists all the price drops on Myhome on a fortnightly basis. it takes two snap shots of the properties listed over time and compares the price changes. i really like the entry which describes the house as a 'pre-election sale' - classic!