General Election-Predictions for Dublin North

Wishbone Ash

The constituency of Dublin North will be particularly interesting this time as there will be at least 3 new TDs returned.

Trevor Sargeant will, no doubt, romp home and Joe Corr should take a sizeable percentage of the vote.

I can't see Brendan Ryan taking his brother Sean's seat. He doesn't have the same local profile, seems disinterested and just doesn't have the right 'personality'.

Claire Daly will probably take a sizeable portion of the floating Labour vote. She polled very well last time out and I can see her getting returned this time.

Dr James Reilly will probably succeed in taking the Nora Owen and old Boland votes. There used to be 2 FG seats here. He has a high profile as a GP, farmer, businessman and former president of the IMO. The fact that he doesn't live in the constituency may irk some people. I think he may pull it off.

And now to FF! They are defending 2 seats but will probably win one. John O'Leary doesn't have a political pedigree so he will probably only get the hardcore FF vote. I don't think his profile is high enough though. There are a lot of young voters now residing here who won't remember when John was the darling of Hill 16.

My prediction at this stage:

1. Trevor Sargent (GP)
2. Claire Daly (SP)
3. John O'Leary (FF)
4. Dr James Reilly (FG)

(not necessarily in that order).

Well folks, how do you think it will pan out?

Anyone know what prices the bookies are quoting?

The Hill Billy

An interesting thread indeed... Nice one WA.

I agree that Trev should be a shoe-in. As for why they are submitting Corr as a second candidate is beyond me. Let's face it - he hasn't really shaken up Fingal Co Co while there. Odds (Trev): 8/11; Odds (Corr): 12/1.

I'd broadly agree with your predictions with the exceptions of Claire Daly & Brendan Ryan...

IMO - I feel that Daly's far-left socialist approach is a tad too much for the celtic tiger cubs who like holding onto their spondoolicks & would balk at the thoughts of increased tax rates to fund "silly things" like the health service & education. Odds: 8/1.

As for Ryan - I think that your comment that he "seems disinterested" is quite funny. It only occurred to me last week that of all the prospective candidates he is the one that pops up again & again in the local media. (The Lusk school situation, R&L train station parking, policing levels in North Fingal, etc, etc.) (Maybe I've been getting a special "Brendan Ryan" edition of the Fingal Indo for the past year? :rolleyes: ) Ryan has quite a political pedigree at local level & should pick up his brother's seat with the recent upswing in Labour popularity. Odds: 11/8.

O'Leary is a strange one - Jim Glennon did sod all for FF last time round. Will another latter-day sportsman be of any appeal to non-GAA fans & the usual "I vote FF coz my mammy & daddy do" voters? Odds: Evens.

O'Reilly (who lives in Rush :rolleyes: ) - Well God only knows. To me he has had a very low profile in the run-up. May get "health-services" protest votes. Odds: 4/1.

Odds (Others): 25/1.

But I've got to give a special mention to Tom Morrissey (the PD candidate)... Why, oh why, is he doing this to himself? Not a chance. Apparently, he's been a senator for the past 5 years. How come he's only making himself known to the hoi-polloi of Dublin North in the past couple of months? Not getting a free pass to Kildare Street this time, eh? In fairness, his party overlords haven't done him any favours either. Odds: 50/1.

EDIT: Prices quoted are my own.

catch--22

1. Trevor Sargent (GP)
2. Dr James Reilly (FG)
3. John O'Leary (FF)
4. Corr (GP)

^My prediction. Trevor is a deserving shoe-in. I can't stand Corr though. I have tried to get in contact with him twice in the last couple of years over a couple of issues and NEVER even got a reply.

I think Dr. Reilly will ride the wave of FG support in the country and wake up the old Nora Owen voters who seemed to hide under rocks at the last few elections. Being a Rush resident is always a +.

O'Leary will get through just because he's on the FF ticket...they're up against the ropes this year and he'll really have to push himself but I'm sure he'll get in.

I have Corr in as well even though I don't think he has a great track record in Fingal but I consider most of the rest of the field is to weak. Corr will gain a lot of support from Trevor's 1st voters. I can't imagine Labour taking a seat at all....and please God not the PD's!

meditraitor

Is there a list of all the Candidates running in the north county?

Wishbone Ash wrote:

My prediction at this stage:

1. Trevor Sargent (GP)
2. Claire Daly (SP)
3. John O'Leary (FF)
4. Dr James Reilly (FG)

Looks about right

Victor

Former resident, voting elsewhere this time.

catch--22 wrote:

1. Trevor Sargent (GP)
2. Dr James Reilly (FG)
3. John O'Leary (FF)
4. Corr (GP)

I can't see Labour and the Socialists getting nothing.

I suspect no part will get a second seat until the constituency is given an extra seat.

Fingleberries

Interesting.

I'd tend to agree with most so far, here's who I reckon will get in - not in any particular order:

- Trevor Sargent should be back with a sizeable chunk of the vote.
- Dr James Reilly should pick up a seat also, as FG used to have a strong hold on the consituency before.
- I think John O'Leary may get in on the back of Name Recognition and the FF Bandwagon would be behind him. Strange, as he has no track record in politics or doesn't clearly show what he stands for - but he's got a picture of him playing for Dublin in the 80's. I don't see them (FF) getting behind Michael Kennedy as much, or Daragh O'Brien for that matter.

The last seat is a little tougher to call:
- It'd be close between Clare Daly, Joe Corr and Brendan Ryan.

The nearly rans:
- Sinn Fein (Matt McCormack) may get a percentage of the protest vote.
- Daragh O'Brien (FF): No idea why FF are putting up three candidates. Daragh could be the sacrificial lamb to the slaughter so his transfers will go to the other two.
- David O'Connor (Ind): Should do well, but may just miss out.

No chance:
- Tom 'Transport Man' Morrissey (PD): Anyone who blows their own trumpet as much (while effectively achieving nothing) and has the scaremongering tag line "Don't throw it all away" don't deserve support. In addition he may suffer further from a backlash against the PD's. I'd reckon a safe bet to be one of the first two eliminated.

Fingleberries

meditraitor wrote:

Is there a list of all the Candidates running in the north county?

• Trevor Sargent -- Green Party
• Brendan Ryan -- Labour
• Dr James Reilly -- Fine Gael
• John O'Leary -- Fianna Fáil
• David O'Connor -- Independent (?)
• Cllr Darragh O'Brien -- Fianna Fáil
• Senator Tom Morrissey -- Progressive Democrats
• Matt McCormack -- Sinn Féin
• Cllr Michael Kennedy -- Fianna Fáil
• Cllr Clare Daly -- Socialist Party
• Cllr Joe Corr -- Green Party

The Hill Billy

See here for a list of all candidates.

catch--22

This is a good site ...... shows expenses for current TD's etc!

http://www.mycandidate.ie/index.php

Wishbone Ash

Hill Billy wrote:

O'Reilly (who lives in Rush :rolleyes: )

catch--22 wrote:

I think Dr. Reilly ...... ........ Being a Rush resident is always a +.

Didn't he move to Co Offaly a few years ago? Even when he lived in Fingal, it was in Balrothery not Rush AFAIK.

Wishbone Ash

Hill Billy wrote:

As for Ryan - I think that your comment that he "seems disinterested" is quite funny. It only occurred to me last week that of all the prospective candidates he is the one that pops up again & again in the local media. (The Lusk school situation, R&L train station parking, policing levels in North Fingal, etc, etc.)

Yes, he attends protests, meetings etc. and gives the media their soundbite but he doesn't make any attempt to meet and greet. He doesn't seem to be a 'people person' IMO.

Hill Billy wrote:

Maybe I've been getting a special "Brendan Ryan" edition of the Fingal Indo for the past year?

LOL

Hill Billy wrote:

Ryan has quite a political pedigree at local level & should pick up his brother's seat with the recent upswing in Labour popularity.

His brother's stronghold was in the Swords/Donabate/Portrane area. I don't think they are overly interested in Brendan who resides in Skerries. A lot of non-Labour people voted for Sean as he was a known hard worker. I can't see them going for his brother.

catch--22

Wishbone Ash wrote:

Didn't he move to Co Offaly a few years ago? Even when he lived in Fingal, it was in Balrothery not Rush AFAIK.

Well he's living in Rush now....South Shore Rd, if I'm right.

wow sierra

1. Trevor Sargent (GP)
2. Dr James Reilly (FG)
3. John O'Leary (FF)
Toss up for the last seat between Kennedy/O'Brien, Clare Daly and Ryan with McCormack Sinn Fein as an outside chance. Think Fianna Fail might actually shade it against the odds with the other 3 splitting the left vote.

Wishbone Ash

catch--22 wrote:

Well he's living in Rush now....South Shore Rd, if I'm right.

Interesting.......did he move back for the election? There was even a debate in my local pub (in Rush) a few nights ago about the fact that he didn't live in the constituency he wished to represent.

The Hill Billy

Wishbone Ash wrote:

He doesn't seem to be a 'people person' IMO...

...A lot of non-Labour people voted for Sean as he was a known hard worker. I can't see them going for his brother.

I suppose that "perception" is the curse of good, but somewhat dour, politicians.

catch--22

Wishbone Ash wrote:

Interesting.......did he move back for the election? There was even a debate in my local pub (in Rush) a few nights ago about the fact that he didn't live in the constituency he wished to represent.

Must have. He's origionally from Lusk according to his website and they put his current address down as:
Seafoam
South Shore Road
Rush
Co Dublin

It would be good to have a TD in Rush tbh, still not sure about Fine Gael though.

Fingalian

O'Reilly is from Baldrumman, which is up the road from Whites Agri. I believe the family home is 'Baldrumman Lodge'
I'm going to email them all and ask them for their views on:
1. The SuperDump for Lusk
2. Super Prison for Thornton
3. The Super Sewage Plant for Portrane

blastman

Interesting thread!

I think Trevor will be returned, although as someone who voted for him in the past, I'm not sure I would this time. There's a perception (whether it's fair or not is another thing) that he doesn't actually do that much. I also heard a story recently from one of his neighbours who is a mate of mine that would not endear me to him.

O'Reilly seems pretty anonymous and I hadn't heard much about Ryan until I read this thread. Seems he does put the work in anyway. Could you vote for someone with a beard like that though?

John O'Leary is a hard one to read. Practically zero political experience and an obvious "celebrity" candidate to replace the outgoing "celebrity" candidate. Will probably do well in Balbriggan and among old school voters, though, and FF's most likely seat, IMO.

Claire Daly has been close before and at least tries to maintain a profile in the locality. I think she may get the nod this time.

All the others are pretty forgettable.

So my prediction:
Seargent (due to inertia more than talent)
O'Leary (old school appeal)
Daly (room for a left wing candidate, and she has a better profile than Ryan)
O'Reilly (due to the large latent Fine Gael vote, but I can see Ryan possibly pipping him)

So that's them all screwed, then!

The Hill Billy

blastman wrote:

So that's them all screwed, then!

Should that not read "So that's us all screwed then!"

MAYPOP

Fingleberries wrote:

- Tom 'Transport Man' Morrissey (PD): Anyone who blows their own trumpet as much (while effectively achieving nothing) and has the scaremongering tag line "Don't throw it all away" don't deserve support. In addition he may suffer further from a backlash against the PD's. I'd reckon a safe bet to be one of the first two eliminated.

Tom Delivers!
junk mail at least twice a week for the last six months

Wishbone Ash

Fingalian wrote:

O'Reilly is from Baldrumman, which is up the road from Whites Agri. I believe the family home is 'Baldrumman Lodge'

Yup, a couple of workmates from Lusk confirmed that for me today (or as they put it "he's from near Murtaghs of Ballough").

They also confirmed that he had indeed moved to an estate in Co Offaly but has now moved back to Rush.

blastman wrote:

I hadn't heard much about Ryan until I read this thread. Seems he does put the work in anyway. Could you vote for someone with a beard like that though?

Are you confusing Ryan with O'Reilly, the latter being the hirsute one.

The Hill Billy

Did anyone get a chance to read the candidates' pieces in the Fingal Indo this week? By & large, the usual stuff about what they've done & what they plan on doing.

No attacks on any of the other candidates until you get to the piece by Tom "The Deliveryman". No other candidate is deserving of your first preference vote or a seat in government apparently. Ergo, Tom thinks that "by default" he should get in. Classic PD arrogance IMO - Learning well from his Master, Young Morrissey is.

It would also appear from his bumpf in this week's paper that Tom has himself lined up for a Ministerial post too. How can he honestly expect us to believe that he'd be handed a ministerial post on his (wishful thinking aside) first appointment to the Dail? Minister for Self-Promotion maybe.



Anyone care to take a guess at how many first votes the Immigration Control Platform candidate is going to get?

catch--22

Hill Billy wrote:

Did anyone get a chance to read the candidates' pieces in the Fingal Indo this week? By & large, the usual stuff about what they've done & what they plan on doing.

No, didn't see that....is it online or do I need one of those Irish Indo subscriptions?

The Hill Billy

You'll need to get yourself down to the newsagents.

blastman

Wishbone Ash wrote:

Are you confusing Ryan with O'Reilly, the latter being the hirsute one.

I was kinda talking about both of them at the same time, I probably should have differentiated better, though.

Wishbone Ash

Paddy Power prices.

Sargent 1/50
Daly 2/7
O'Reilly 2/5
Kennedy 1/2

Ryan 8/13
O'Leary 6/4
O'Brien 3/1
Morrissey 4/1
O'Connor 11/2
Corr 11/2
McCormack 14/1

Arthur Daley

Would have said Mr. Paddy Power had it spot on as usual. You can't beat the book.............................

O'Leary has had zero presence from what I can see, and Kennedy seems to be the preferred FF candidate. He has earned his dues in the eyes of the party faithful.

Sergeant and Daly are shoe-ins. O'Reilly to take the last seat on transfers from elsewhere to keep Fianna Failer no.2 out.

King.Penguin

My guess

Trevor Sargent TD
cllr Clare Daly
Dr O'Reilly
Cllr Kennedy

This is my reckoning and I see it's congruent with Paddy Power. I think the 4th seat is well up for grabs. I think Kennedy has been around for such a long time he seems to be deserving of a seat. I'm more inclined to vote for O'Brien because he's more local to me.

My preference

TS - most experienced, most potentially influential (in a rainbow government should he be expecting a ministerial position being leader of constituent party?)

CD - proven hard worker, but mental, get's my vote due to her attitude not her policies

JOR - healthcare is something i'm particularly interested in, so as a GP and former pres of IMO I expect him not to be a total idiot on this matter

DOB - local lad, seems like a nice bloke. sure why not.

sgarvan

dont know how true this is, can anyone confirm it.

I heard that Clare Daly is charging 50c if a household wants to take a leaflet of her. Seems a bit much if it is true

catch--22

sgarvan wrote:

dont know how true this is, can anyone confirm it.

I heard that Clare Daly is charging 50c if a household wants to take a leaflet of her. Seems a bit much if it is true

LOL! You can't be serious!

blastman

Rubbish! (pun intended) We got one of her leaflets through the door, no invoice with it.

Kennedy's posters are awful, it looks like someone spraypainted his hair on.

Wishbone Ash

blastman wrote:

Rubbish! (pun intended) We got one of her leaflets through the door, no invoice with it.

Yup, same here.

blastman wrote:

Kennedy's posters are awful, it looks like someone spraypainted his hair on.

Yes, it may have been an attempt to hide the world's third worst haircut.

catch--22

Wishbone Ash wrote:

Yes, it may have been an attempt to hide the world's third worst haircut.

The worst being here:

http://blogorrah.com/derision-07-the-winner-by-a-hair.html

Wishbone Ash

catch--22 wrote:

The worst being here:

http://blogorrah.com/derision-07-the-winner-by-a-hair.html

:eek: LOL

MAYPOP

Don't forget this lad:rolleyes:

catch--22

And we now have a new one:

http://blogorrah.com/derision-07-mullet-the-blue-sky.html

Wishbone Ash

catch--22 wrote:

And we now have a new one:

http://blogorrah.com/derision-07-mullet-the-blue-sky.html

I think I'm going to be sick:

*vomits*

catch--22

Wishbone Ash wrote:

I think I'm going to be sick:

*vomits*

Hold it for a while yet Ash....we have a new contender!

http://blogorrah.com/derision-07-father-i-killed-a-man.html

Sweet Jesus....where do they get them from?!

Wishbone Ash

Wishbone Ash wrote:

Paddy Power prices.

Sargent 1/50
Daly 2/7
O'Reilly 2/5
Kennedy 1/2

Ryan 8/13
O'Leary 6/4
O'Brien 3/1
Morrissey 4/1
O'Connor 11/2
Corr 11/2
McCormack 14/1

Dr James Reilly's odds have now shortened to 1/4 while Clare Daly's have lengthened to 1/3. Sargent and Kennedy remain unchanged while Morrissey's have doubled from 4/1 to 8/1.

1. Sargent 1/50
2. Reilly 1/4
3. Daly 1/3
4. Kennedy 1/2

(PS - is it Reilly or O'Reilly)

catch--22

Wishbone Ash wrote:

(PS - is it Reilly or O'Reilly)

Reilly.

Bluetonic

catch--22 wrote:

Reilly.

Really?

Wishbone Ash

catch--22 wrote:

Reilly.

Yes, I confirmed that to myself on the way to work this morning. He is frequently referred to as O'Reilly though.

SeaSide

Trevor Sargent (Green) 1 - 50
James O'Reilly (FG) 8-13 4-9 2-5 1 - 4
Clare Daly (Soc) 2-3 4-6 2-7 1 - 3
Michael Kennedy (FF) 1 - 2
Brendan Ryan (Lab) 1-2 8-15 8-13 8 - 11

Interesting changes in the odds and that there are five candidates odds on. Is it possible that FF could be left without a seat???

Sizzler

Trevor Sargeant, eh no thanks, wouldnt it be funny if he didnt get voted in He was up in one of the boozers in Swords about a fortnight ago buying pints for punters, last act of a desperate man.

Clare Daly = gets stuff done and is probably one of the most active people around Fingal.

Michael Kennedy / Darragh O'Brien...USELESS, try sending them an email and asking them a mildly difficult question and they'll dive quicker than Jurgen Klinsmann in his pomp!

Morrissey, lazy bastad has sent me 3 polling cards spelling my name wrong (despite other candidates getting it right) so he can AMB.

O'Leary, will prob vote for this guy purely because hes the best of a lame bunch for FF in the area.

Dr.James O'Reilly, might be worth a preferntial vote as he has some good ideas on the health service for Fingal.

Wishbone Ash

Sizzler wrote:

He was up in one of the boozers in Swords about a fortnight ago buying pints for punters, last act of a desperate man

Jesus Sizzler, he's fifty to one - on. That's hardly desperate.

Sizzler

Wishbone Ash wrote:

Jesus Sizzler, he's fifty to one - on. That's hardly desperate.

LOL, I meant the act seemed pretty desperate Tantamount to buying votes from the populous.

Fingalian

''He was up in one of the boozers in Swords about a fortnight ago buying pints for punters, last act of a desperate man.''

which boozer ?

Fingleberries

Fingalian wrote:

which boozer ?

Too late, unless you have a time machine to go back and get a few free pints. The important question is which one will they be at next weekend

The Hill Billy

Methinks that Tom Morrissey's odds are going to be shortened today. He may even overtake Trev as the favourite.

Little old ladies all over North Dublin will be goo-ing and gaa-ing at the sight of Sen Morrissey - looking like a little white, slavering puppy-dog - on the front page of the Metro this morning. It is a pic of Herr McDowell and John Gormley going head-to-head on the hustings in Ranelagh.

The bould Tom is to be seen in the background grinning inanely at his overlord shaping up to his GP opponent. The look of unconditional & undying toadying is overwhelming. If you look at the picture long enough you can almost see his tail wagging.

MAYPOP

:d

catch--22

Hill Billy wrote:

Methinks that Tom Morrissey's odds are going to be shortened today. He may even overtake Trev as the favourite.

Little old ladies all over North Dublin will be goo-ing and gaa-ing at the sight of Sen Morrissey - looking like a little white, slavering puppy-dog - on the front page of the Metro this morning. It is a pic of Herr McDowell and John Gormley going head-to-head on the hustings in Ranelagh.

The bould Tom is to be seen in the background grinning inanely at his overlord shaping up to his GP opponent. The look of unconditional & undying toadying is overwhelming. If you look at the picture long enough you can almost see his tail wagging.

Best post I've read all week!