Irish Open Hand

BigCityBanker

Alright this hand has been playing on my mind now for a while

Irish Open 37 players remain, the 37th player gets €7k, the 36th player get €10k - players are falling fast. I fully expect that I will have moved up a pay grade within the next few minutes.

DeWolfe has been pretty active, 8 players on the table and I think it was Halfbaked's BB. so that means that DeWolfe was raising from UTG + 1. The table has been playing pretty tight with preflop raises getting through with a certain degree of ease.

I cant fully remember but I think we are 5k/10k level. DeWolfe raises, he has been doing alot of this, I cant remember to how much he raised but I remember thinking at the time that it was a bigger raise than the ones he had previously been making.

Im next to act and I look down at KQs

Now im thinking im ahead of his "range" here, the bigger raise by DeWolfe is sticking in my mind. I reckon my fold equity if I push is quite small and possibly non-existent. I also would have a number of players, some of them big stacked, to get through before the action gets back to DeWolfe.

Now I can fold and pretty much guarantee an additional €3k or I can push, risk €3k, potentially get a double up and still not have a whole load of chips to play with - the plus side of all this being that it may further my tournament life if i push and win the hand.

I dwell on this hand for a minute or so, I feel I really have a decision to make, im not trying to run down the clock or hope that another player gets knocked out in the space of time Im dwelling, thats not my style - I only ever dwell if I have a decision to make and right now I feel ive got a tricky one.

Im sure this is where the difference between $EV and CEV comes into play.

I fold - did I bottle it or was I correct to fold? Of course I think it was a correct fold but unless im told otherwise Im gonna continue to think this.

Thoughts?

Ollieboy

BigCityBanker wrote:

Alright this hand has been playing on my mind now for a while

Irish Open 37 players remain, the 37th player gets €7k, the 36th player get €10k - players are falling fast. I fully expect that I will have moved up a pay grade within the next few minutes.

DeWolfe has been pretty active, 8 players on the table and I think it was Halfbaked's BB. so that means that DeWolfe was raising from UTG + 1. The table has been playing pretty tight with preflop raises getting through with a certain degree of ease.

I cant fully remember but I think we are 5k/10k level. DeWolfe raises, he has been doing alot of this, I cant remember to how much he raised but I remember thinking at the time that it was a bigger raise than the ones he had previously been making.

Im next to act and I look down at KQs

Now im thinking im ahead of his "range" here, the bigger raise by DeWolfe is sticking in my mind. I reckon my fold equity if I push is quite small and possibly non-existent. I also would have a number of players, some of them big stacked, to get through before the action gets back to DeWolfe.

Now I can fold and pretty much guarantee an additional €3k or I can push, risk €3k, potentially get a double up and still not have a whole load of chips to play with - the plus side of all this being that it may further my tournament life if i push and win the hand.

I dwell on this hand for a minute or so, I feel I really have a decision to make, im not trying to run down the clock or hope that another player gets knocked out in the space of time Im dwelling, thats not my style - I only ever dwell if I have a decision to make and right now I feel ive got a tricky one.

Im sure this is where the difference between $EV and CEV comes into play.

I fold - did I bottle it or was I correct to fold? Of course I think it was a correct fold but unless im told otherwise Im gonna continue to think this.

Thoughts?

Fold, pretty hand, but pretty weak against any pair or Ace, you haven't mention what your stack size was, if your low, ie 10bb it might be worth the push, but I would be fearful of someone else reraised behind with KK/QQ or even AA. Also, the way that guy plays, he likely to call and a overraise could be is way of hiding a big hand or a medium pair, most good players would raise more in early position with marginal hands to get it through, but you also have a marginal hand.

I would fold here easily enough and move up the pay levels. I hope to pick up some cheap chips from the blinds or button which is coming to you shortly to extend my tourney life.

El Stuntman

can you remember:

your stack size (presume you were quite short?)
De Wolfe's stack size?
De Wolfe's raise size ("quite large", was it a 5BB or 6BB raise?)

BigCityBanker

I know info is pretty scarce. I might have 8/9bbs, De Wolfe covers with ease.

DeWolfes std raise had been sub 3bb's, this was a raise to 38k i think.

Im not suffering from pretty hand syndrome here, I never suffer from it.

I reckon his range here is Ax, KQ/KJ/K10, QJ, J10, 910, and any pocket pair.

I have a feeling if I push and get called im gonna be racing.

Ste05

BigCityBanker wrote:

I reckon his range here is Ax, KQ/KJ/K10, QJ, J10, 910, and any pocket pair.

I have a feeling if I push and get called im gonna be racing.

Yep I defo push...

EDIT: OK, I posted my reply below first

Ste05

I'd say it would all depend on stack sizes, but if it's a push or fold situation I'd probably push. Probably need more info.

phantom_lord

u have almost no fe here i think. esp after the dwell up. I think a fold is best.

El Stuntman

Ste05 wrote:

Yep I defo push...

you have 5 more players to act

Ste05

I know, if one of them have AA, KK, QQ, AK or AQ, so be it, I have 8/9BB's and a good spot presuming De Wolfe calls, and if he folds even better...

BigCityBanker

Does the $$$ not come into the decision?

El Stuntman

Ste05 wrote:

I know, if one of them have AA, KK, QQ, AK or AQ, so be it, I have 8/9BB's and a good spot presuming De Wolfe calls, and if he folds even better...

there is no chance he folds here unless someone else goes nutso behind BCB

sikes

really depends on dewolfes opening range, but i would imagine we are behind it and we have no folding equity.

From a $$ point of view it makes it even more of a fold. Unfortunaltely we dont have a stack for bubble play which sucks, especially when theres a raise in front of us.

ligger

I fold. Your payout will go up by approx 50% by folding. You could also get a better spot and you avoid having to say "but they were sooted" when asked what hand did you bust out of the open on.;)

eoghan104

It sounds like youve kind off given up on winning the tournament and are happy to hold on to get the extra 3k. I dont think there is anything wrong with this and id say I would fold too.

If this was the se scalps on a wednesday and the next prize jump was €30 and you had 8/9bbs what would you do?

Ste05

sikes wrote:

really depends on dewolfes opening range, but i would imagine we are behind it and we have no folding equity.

"Ax, KQ/KJ/K10, QJ, J10, 910, and any pocket pair." is his range and I expect him to call with it all.

Obviously the $$ does come into the decision, but I just think if I fold here hoping for the extra $3k that's all I'm likely to make, I'd want to increase my chances of getting to the Final Table, not creep up one more pay spot. When the blinds and antes go through you again you'll be left with 6-7 BB's and you'll be racing anyway at some stage and may not get as good a spot as this one.

I suppose it's all relative, but although the $3k is alot of money, it's not even 1 buy-in. If we double up here, we'll have a much more playable stack, and IMO this is a +EV spot to be in. I'm sure I'd do it, then get knocked out by AJ or 44 and kick myself for not guaranteeing the extra $3k.

WH BONNEY

sikes wrote:

really depends on dewolfes opening range, but i would imagine we are behind it and we have no folding equity.

From a $$ point of view it makes it even more of a fold. Unfortunaltely we dont have a stack for bubble play which sucks, especially when theres a raise in front of us.

I would have reckoned we are ahead of Dewolfes "opening range", he too knows there is a pay level rise. I would gladly push here if I taught I would get it heads up, but with so many still to act I would fold.

sikes

so we are just behind his range, with no fold equity. on a huge money jump for someone what satted in, with players to act behind us. And we want to ship it in?

sikes

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.679% 49.90% 01.78% 1097100836 39104474.00 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+ }
Hand 1: 48.321% 46.54% 01.78% 1023288552 39104474.00 { KQs }

Lissavalley

I fold. You've no FE after the long pause and he is calling. If I was 100% sure we were racing I'd call but since you don't know that I'm folding.

robinlacey

this looks like a fold to me

BigCityBanker

If im being honest a little bit of me said im fckd even if I double up.

I actually also thought that if i fold out for another €3k I can play the GJP and the Macau on the back of folding this hand.

These probably are not the sort of things you should be thinking of 5 tables out in the IO but im a novice to these types of events.

phantom_lord

sikes wrote:

so we are just behind his range, with no fold equity. on a huge money jump for someone what satted in, with players to act behind us. And we want to ship it in?

That pretty much sums it up.

58o

BigCityBanker wrote:

These probably are not the sort of things you should be thinking of 5 tables out in the IO but im a novice to these types of events.

Nothing wrong with being pragmatic.Everyone loves those "from a chip and a chair...." stories but how often do they actually happen. I ship it in some 1-200 tourney in the SE/Fitz but i wouldnt dwell too much on it here. Having no fold equity being the main factor.

eoghan104

BigCityBanker wrote:

If im being honest a little bit of me said im fckd even if I double up.

I actually also thought that if i fold out for another €3k I can play the GJP and the Macau on the back of folding this hand.

These probably are not the sort of things you should be thinking of 5 tables out in the IO but im a novice to these types of events.

Fcuk that you're dead right!! You already said you have no FE and he will call you with a lot of hands. Even if you manage a double up your still struggling. If the 3k means alot to you as it would to me and 90% of the posters here your right to fold.

You will have people come on and say that it shouldnt matter about the 3k...... when they do just ask them how they got on in the Open (unless its Halfbaked!!!)

Wp and good luck in the Macau and GJP.

phantom_lord

eoghan104 wrote:

Fcuk that you're dead right!! You already said you have no FE and he will call you with a lot of hands. Even if you manage a double up your still struggling. If the 3k means alot to you as it would to me and 90% of the posters here your right to fold.

You will have people come on and say that it shouldnt matter about the 3k...... when they do just ask them how they got on in the Open (unless its Halfbaked!!!)

Wp and good luck in the Macau and GJP.

it's not about the 3k. or at least it shouldn't be.

eoghan104

phantom_lord wrote:

it's not about the 3k. or at least it shouldn't be.

BCB said it was alot to do with the 3k

phantom_lord

say we have ak/aa do u fold then?

It's more about because our hand doesn't preform well against his range, and we have no fe.

BigCityBanker

phantom_lord wrote:

it's not about the 3k. or at least it shouldn't be.

As I said earlier $EV and CEV should surely come into this. I put this up because I remember a thread about this topic befoe on which Sikes had extensive views.

marginal benefit of the CEV < marginal benefit of $EV, well at least thats what I believed.

careca

I think we need to be honest here and say of course the extra $3k would make a difference in our thought process. Its all very well to say you should only be thinking of winning but when you get in for cheap (was it $24??) and you stated somewhere that 3.5K would be a nice win then of course it comes into it. I would have folded fairly quick and tbh wouldn't have given it a second thought.

phantom_lord

I'm pretty sure 3k would mean more to me than bcb! but I'd ship it here without hesitation if thought i was good/had an edge etc.

ntlbell

careca wrote:

I think we need to be honest here and say of course the extra $3k would make a difference in our thought process. Its all very well to say you should only be thinking of winning but when you get in for cheap (was it $24??) and you stated somewhere that 3.5K would be a nice win then of course it comes into it. I would have folded fairly quick and tbh wouldn't have given it a second thought.

Well if it comes into that much then you don't need to ask the question on boards you don't need a poker answer.

We can only look at the hand from a poker point of view, we have no idea what it means to BCB so phantom_lord's point is correct it _shouldn't_ come into and if it does then it doesn't belong here.

Someone previously asked why de wolfe does so well, it could well be he plays against this sort of mindset so often at these events where they're a lot of internet qualifiers.

Ste05

Looks like I'm the only maniac on here... , is anyone behind going to call with JJ or AK?? Seeing as we've just pushed and De Wolfe is still to act. Did you think the players behind were seasoned Pro's to whom the $3k meant nothing, and will see a re-push with AK, JJ, 1010, etc. being a profitable move, or what type of players were they, I don't think it'll change much our range against his is still 50:50 by the looks of it, but everyone is afraid of the bubble if you're not, there's serious chips to be made. Will your push make QQ fold??

P.S. I'm not saying I'd push to try and get QQ to fold!! I'm just saying it's bubble time and a tourney life player could very easily fold QQ or AK there, feck it I may even fold it to that action, I presume Noel would have had a very tight conservative image!! And so I think there's a good chance that only AA and KK will call behind us.

eoghan104

phantom_lord wrote:

say we have ak/aa do u fold then?

It's more about because our hand doesn't preform well against his range, and we have no fe.

Oh yeah I see what you mean but I just meant that in a marginal decision like this the 3k comes into it. Obviously it wouldnt if we had AA

BigCityBanker

phantom_lord wrote:

I'm pretty sure 3k would mean more to me than bcb! but I'd ship it here without hesitation if thought i was good/had an edge etc.

You see before I found myself in this situation I would have trotted out the above line without a second thought.

But when you find yourself in this situation its amazing how quickly your thought process changes. :rolleyes:

Gholimoli

eoghan104 wrote:

It sounds like youve kind off given up on winning the tournament and are happy to hold on to get the extra 3k. I dont think there is anything wrong with this and id say I would fold too.

If this was the se scalps on a wednesday and the next prize jump was €30 and you had 8/9bbs what would you do?

fold as well i hope.

Ste05

sikes wrote:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.679% 49.90% 01.78% 1097100836 39104474.00 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+ }
Hand 1: 48.321% 46.54% 01.78% 1023288552 39104474.00 { KQs }

I think this range is a little wrong as well by the way, I would think it was highly unlikely De Wolfe is raising with A6- hands, I would have thought he'll more than likely pick hands that perform well/half decent against unpaired high cards, low pairs and have a half decent chance against the inevitable big pairs he runs into.

Hence I'd remove A6 and below, and add in some mid suited connectors such as 78s, 79s etc. or maybe even leave in the A rags but certainly add in more suited connectors.

I would be very suprised if we were less than 55% against his range, the problem I think for most people is the fact that there's 5 people to act behind us.

sikes

we werent there, we dont know his range. we cant just mess around with it to suit our argument, however i doubt we will ever have 55% equity against his range

Do really think he is raising these hands in ep, for more than his usual raise?

The fact there are 5 people behind us changes the move from being marginally +cEV to -cEV, however, both plays are most probably -$EV

BigCityBanker

sikes wrote:

The fact there are 5 people behind us changes the move from being marginally +cEV to -cEV, however, both plays are most probably -$EV

This is essentially the question im asking here (as im sure you know). I dont think this hand could or should be played without considering $EV. Its wether or not I considered this correctly or wether i did actually just bottle it what im getting at.

El Stuntman

BigCityBanker wrote:

This is essentially the question im asking here (as im sure you know). I dont think this hand could or should be played without considering $EV. Its wether or not I considered this correctly or wether i did actually just bottle it what im getting at.

correct decision, wp.

now move on, win the GJP Festival, then the Macau and then take Vegas by storm....

Ste05

BigCityBanker wrote:

If im being honest a little bit of me said im fckd even if I double up.

Well based on this I would agree it would probably be -$EV, but if I thought the double up would help me steal more blinds and antes and possibly make a charge for the Final table, then I'd take it. Even if I'm 50:50 against his range.

Hitman Actual

BigCityBanker wrote:

This is essentially the question im asking here (as im sure you know). I dont think this hand could or should be played without considering $EV. Its wether or not I considered this correctly or wether i did actually just bottle it what im getting at.

$EV has to come into it, you're right. Regarding CEV, the fact that there are still players left to act means that your average equity could be as low as 40%, which has to be considered. Also, you're not knocking anyone out if you double-up, so it's not really a case of guaranteeing the extra €3K(+) if you win. Your share in the prize pool will go up, but because you're taking it off the big stack (if DeWolfe calls and loses), it doesn't go up by much.

All things considered, I'd say pushing is -$EV. Even if you could guarantee getting it in only against DeWolfe, it would be marginal, I think.

jimbling

Ste05 wrote:

Well based on this I would agree it would probably be -$EV, but if I thought the double up would help me steal more blinds and antes and possibly make a charge for the Final table, then I'd take it. Even if I'm 50:50 against his range.

The problem Ste is that you have loads of players to act. If anyone else gets involved your more than likely dominated.
I would much rather wait 3 hands and move in with 67s or something. Ensure the 3k first, then go for the quick double up etc.

Its risk Vs Reward and I think the risk far outweighs the reward in this situation.
You made the right decision bcb. The only thing I would say about your decision making process in this regard is that it shouldn't be about how much you need the money as such*. i.e. the money will buy me into the festivals etc. more just the value.

* if that is the case, then as ntl said it isn't really a poker question.

Gholimoli

With 9BB and raise in from you and 4 or 5 players yet left to act this is a clear fold IMO .
I would push with 55+,AT+ if the original raiser was a good aggro player who was raising a lot .

Ste05

jimbling wrote:

The problem Ste is that you have loads of players to act. If anyone else gets involved your more than likely dominated.
I would much rather wait 3 hands and move in with 67s or something. Ensure the 3k first, then go for the quick double up etc.

I agree and I'd probably fold myself in real time, especially as $3k is nothing to be sniffed at. But to just talk about the theory a little more, here's some more things that I was thinking about. A double up now will increase us from 8 BB's to 8+8+2(blinds +antes) = 18BB's

Whereas in 3 hands time we'll only have 6 BB's (assuming we haven't got a premium hand before the blinds go through us) and if we raise on the button/CO with any 2 (we might not even get something as good as 78s) and win we'll only have 6+6+1 = 13BB's.

Now we might have guaranteed the $3k but we now need to win one forced push in the next 8 hands and then need to win another to get to where we would have been had we taken this gamble and won. Also if we had won this flip, we'd have possibly been able to steal a few blinds and antes without risking everything. If we win this flip I think we have hugely increased our chances of going much deeper than if we fold.

Also as I said earlier, I think we have absolutely massive fold equity against the guys behind us, everyone is on this $3k bubble, and they're not going to be calling us light at all, so all we have to avoid is the next 5 people having been dealt AA, KK and possibly AK and QQ. I'll take that shot and hope De Wolfe was just running over the table with all kinds of crap around the bubble (where most good players do most of the damage and growth of their stacks)

EDITED to correct an obvious maths error

phantom_lord

Ste05 wrote:

I'll take that shot and hope De Wolfe was just running over the table with all kinds of crap around the bubble (where most good players do most of the damage and growth of their stacks)

any chance he might fold to keep the ss in play and maintain the bubble situation?

Ste05

phantom_lord wrote:

any chance he might fold to keep the ss in play and maintain the bubble situation?

I'd doubt it TBH, the bubble will burst on another table very soon anyway, and I'd say he thinks a huge % of our range will be unpaired high cards and so I'd think he'll call with pretty much everything he was raising with.

nicnicnic

I'd of pushed, his range is bigger then you describe any two really. He would of called you with any two because of your stack size so there's a real chance of a double up. I pushed over his raises with J10 K10 and KJ three tables out when he was playing 300k and me 140/180k. when he got a big double up shortly after I stopped and waited for the table to break as I knew then that he would look me up.

This is not criticism Noel but your attitude of even if i got a double up i was fcuked is pure inexperience in my opinion. I say this as I had a very similar experience in the 2006 IPC where i just gave up once I hit the money and the cards dried up. It took me three months to come to terms with what I had done but its has been a lesson well learned.

something that I always tell myself when I'm short is that theres Xamount of players who are gone out of the tournament who would love to have my chips and that I still have a chance.

BigCityBanker

nicnicnic wrote:

I'd of pushed, his range is bigger then you describe any two really.

From the Button, CO, CO-1 his range is any two. From here I think we can tighten his range.

Gholimoli

nicnicnic wrote:

I'd of pushed, his range is bigger then you describe any two really. He would of called you with any two because of your stack size so there's a real chance of a double up. I pushed over his raises with J10 K10 and KJ three tables out when he was playing 300k and me 140/180k. when he got a big double up shortly after I stopped and waited for the table to break as I knew then that he would look me up.

This is not criticism Noel but your attitude of even if i got a double up i was fcuked is pure inexperience in my opinion. I say this as I had a very similar experience in the 2006 IPC where i just gave up once I hit the money and the cards dried up. It took me three months to come to terms with what I had done but its has been a lesson well learned.

something that I always tell myself when I'm short is that theres Xamount of players who are gone out of the tournament who would love to have my chips and that I still have a chance.

Nic ,
i think your range for pushing here is just to wide .
if you were deeper then it would be different as you have FE but here you are simply banking on your hand range v his + few players who are left to act behind you.
if he has A2 here you are behind and you are getting in with the wors of it.
i have never been a conservative player at all but the fact that he will never fold to your raise here does come in to play.
i donno what i would do if i was on the BB and his raise was folded to me.
if that was the case then i would consider taking a gable with him HU if i had seen him being very active but even then i would have to give some cridet to the fact that he has made a raise from EP.
i would still folded JT,KT here though.

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

BigCityBanker

UnLuckyLloyd wrote:

I would like to think that I am a brave enough player to ship it here.

3 weeks ago I would like to have thought the same about myself. I suppose this all boils down to me being a novice in an event like this. There is no substitute for experience and the IO was an experience that I hope to build on.