Hand that done the damage in the IO.

connie147

Ok, ive just read on another thread where the question was asked "how come Dewolfe always has chips?" was answered by someone who said they saw him play a pot on day where he reraised from the button with 7-5, and push all in on a 6-8 Q board, got called and hit his 9 on the turn to double up.

So, onto the hand that done most damage to me in the open.We're in the 100-200 blind level, ive only played about 5 pots with a 100% record and have 15k in chips. Folded to me in the c/o, I make it 600 to go with Kh-Jh.called by scandie on the botton(8k) and by French dude in the BB(seems to be a decent solid player so far).
Flop comes Q-10-5 with 2 hearts.I lead for 900, scandie flat calls, Frenchie makes it 2,600 to go.I ask him how much he has behind(its about 10k total), and I reraise to 10k. Scandie folds and frenchie dwells up for about 3 mins, (I have him on A-Q or KQ and Im expecting him to fold but I dont mind a call too much either here). He eventually calls tith top two pair but I dont hit any of my 15 outs so instead of having 27k and cruising, im on 4.5k and struggling.
Now, who thinks I made the right play? Or who thinks I fcuked up big time?

phantom_lord

I thought it was fine, you've a ton of fe, and you have a pretty strong hand if you're called, just ul you didn't hit.

exactly 50/50 says pokerstove.

opr

It looks fine. I don't think you did too much wrong.

Opr

opr

lol , The Frenchie wasn't David Benyamine was it ?

Opr

phantom_lord

lol, no, bit of a prat whoever he was. posing for every photographer, sitting up, ifxing his hair etc etc :rolleyes:

Flushdraw

opr wrote:

It looks fine. I don't think you did too much wrong.

Opr

.

David Michael

phantom_lord wrote:

lol, no, bit of a prat whoever he was. posing for every photographer, sitting up, ifxing his hair etc etc :rolleyes:

perhaps a bigger picture was an option.

58o

i ship as played, you have a giant hand with which you are almost never in bad shape, and as you said if you hit one of your million outs you are cruising. Just UL.

mewso

Agree with everyone else (I just find posting a . to say so is lazy and too cool for me). Well played Connie and unlucky.

DubTony

musician wrote:

Agree with everyone else (I just find posting a . to say so is lazy and too cool for me). Well played Connie and unlucky.

.

mewso

Predicted some smart arse would do that so I changed my location before it could happen

valor

standard

Lazare

musician wrote:

Predicted some smart arse would do that so I changed my location before it could happen

LOL. wp muso.


Irony rocks.

Lazare

Double post..

DubTony

musician wrote:

Predicted some smart arse would do that so I changed my location before it could happen

Obviously it just depended on which smart arse saw it first.

Nice one Brian.

phantom_lord

leveled

mewso

By the way I see I got high praise from Jessie and Padraig tonight. Pity it was a different Brian O'Connell

BrandonBlock

What were the odds on a heart, an ace, or a nine coming up in the turn or the flop?

HauleyBear

Connie i think you played the hand very well... based on your tight table image, your reads on opponents and not to forget the huge draw hand you have... You just very unlucky to run into Top Two Pair, I think it very hard for Frenchy to find a fold in this spot... But that he gave it a thought shows he folds AQ in this position to you.
You have to be really aggro with big drawing hands like this because theres no hand that really dominates you if called and you have big FE.... You roughly 60/40 against a set.. Only sick hand that i can think of calling your reraise is Ah10h...
As already stated it exactly 50/50, when the money when in.... You just have to start winning those races connie..
Well played, you definitely didnt fcuk it up....

cardshark202

This hand is more than fine. UL

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

connie147

Thanks for the positive responses.Its just that i decided beforehand that I was gonna get very aggressive with big drawing hands and they dont get much bigger than that. I saw it as a big oppertunity to get a huge stack early on but it just didnt work out. Next time maybe.

Fatboydim

I'm going to have to disagree Connie. I think it was a poor play at this stage of the tournament. You say he was BB and you lead out on the flop for 900. So I take it he's check raised you to 2600. That tells you all you need to know. He's strong. You also say he seems like a solid player so far. You're a slight favourite to TPTK, a slight dog to top set, and evens for top two. So either way you look at it you're putting a lot of faith in a coinflip at this stage of the tournament. It's too early for coin flips unless you're desperate. You've got three more days to get through if you want to win the IO. I folded AK twice preflop on Day 1... because I didn't want to get involved in coinflips for more than twenty five percent of my stack. This is no different. Day 1 is about survival. In a regular one day tourney, or on the third day of the tourney when you're aiming for the win... then the play is not so bad... but the more coinflips you take the more likely you'll get knocked out.

opr

Fatboydim wrote:

I'm going to have to disagree Connie. I think it was a poor play at this stage of the tournament. You say he was BB and you lead out on the flop for 900. So I take it he's check raised you to 2600. That tells you all you need to know. He's strong. You also say he seems like a solid player so far. You're a slight favourite to TPTK, a slight dog to top set, and evens for top two. So either way you look at it you're putting a lot of faith in a coinflip at this stage of the tournament. It's too early for coin flips unless you're desperate. You've got three more days to get through if you want to win the IO. I folded AK twice preflop on Day 1... because I didn't want to get involved in coinflips for more than twenty five percent of my stack. This is no different. Day 1 is about survival. In a regular one day tourney, or on the third day of the tourney when you're aiming for the win... then the play is not so bad... but the more coinflips you take the more likely you'll get knocked out.

Wow.

Opr

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

Fatboydim

Sorry I thought poker was supposed to be a game of skill and stratergy - not luck. If you're the guy with top two are you folding to the all in?

sikes

Fatboydim wrote:

Sorry I thought poker was supposed to be a game of skill and stratergy - not luck. If you're the guy with top two are you folding to the all in?

Would you?

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

Fatboydim

No, as Connie has overplayed his draw and it looks like a weak pair. The 10k bet is designed to get the playe off the pot. Although I might consider that he has hit bottom set if I'm the French guy. But most likely I'm putting him on flush draw. [Connie doesn't say if player had any hearts in his han assuming not] If that's the case then I'm aroun 68% favourite in the hand and I take my 60 / 40s so yes as the French player I call.

Fatboydim

UnLuckyLloyd wrote:

Poker is more a game of maths than anything else. Does the French guy never have AQ there? Is he never making a play (people bluff)?

Given Connie's table image, I think he gets this bet through uncalled more often than most players do.

Len, you have been around the game a lot longer than I have and have more experience playing big Events. But I think your viewpoint here is incorrect and you will struggle to win a multi - day deepstack event with that attitude.

You could be right, poker has changed but there is an old saying.

You can't win the tournament on Day 1.

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

sikes

Fatboydim wrote:

No, as Connie has overplayed his draw and it looks like a weak pair. The 10k bet is designed to get the playe off the pot. Although I might consider that he has hit bottom set if I'm the French guy. But most likely I'm putting him on flush draw. [Connie doesn't say if player had any hearts in his han assuming not] If that's the case then I'm aroun 68% favourite in the hand and I take my 60 / 40s so yes as the French player I call.

You will never have 68% equity in this pot when you call against his range

You have no FE either when you call an all in.

You are prob up against QQ+,TT,44,AhJh,KhJh

so you have 55% equity. Connie is at worst a 57% dog in the hand yet when he pushes he is maximising his FE, and is getting a great price anyway if he is called.

As an aside: So you will take a 60/40 getting evens, but wont take a 50/50 getting 6/4? Is this correct?

connie147

Fatboydim wrote:

I'm going to have to disagree Connie. I think it was a poor play at this stage of the tournament. You say he was BB and you lead out on the flop for 900. So I take it he's check raised you to 2600. That tells you all you need to know. He's strong. You also say he seems like a solid player so far. You're a slight favourite to TPTK, a slight dog to top set, and evens for top two. So either way you look at it you're putting a lot of faith in a coinflip at this stage of the tournament. It's too early for coin flips unless you're desperate. You've got three more days to get through if you want to win the IO. I folded AK twice preflop on Day 1... because I didn't want to get involved in coinflips for more than twenty five percent of my stack. This is no different. Day 1 is about survival. In a regular one day tourney, or on the third day of the tourney when you're aiming for the win... then the play is not so bad... but the more coinflips you take the more likely you'll get knocked out.

Hi Len When I re-reraised this guy all in, he had only 25% of his stack in the middle, with 8k left behind, plenty to play on with at 100-200 blind level. He had huge FE and I thought I'd pick up the pot there and then(the only 2 pots prior to that that I put serious chips into, I showed down the nuts both times).
And even if he calls, then I still think Im fav. but with the chance that he'll fold here a lot of the time, I do think its the right play.But thats why i posted the hand, to get different peoples opinions.

And len, I didnt call to put my tourney on a coinflip, HE did.

Fatboydim

I think your sums are wrong sikes. I've checked the percentages - maybe different poker calculators. You're rarely better than 60/40 in a hand... and obviously you have to have a stronger hand to call than to raise. I do admit however that I've missed the idea that Connie might have top set [late night] So yes as the Frenchie I might fold. But you know there's an awful lot of information that I don't have here such as size of other stacks at the table etc. Connie is not only a lovely man but also a very good player. Gus Hanson, Phil Hellmuth and Daniel Negreanu are all good players but have very different styles. If those three were playing this hand as Connie I believe that Hanson would do what Connie did. And Hellmouth and Negreanu would fold. Negreanu likes to play lots of small pots until he builds a large stack in tourneys. Hansen ultra aggresive and Hellmouth ultra tight.

I ended day one on 55.3k. I was very happy with that and my game. I had only one dodgy hand and that was when I hit a straight on the turn and Paul Dooley hit a full house. I put him on a pocket pair pre flop on a 9J9 flop and I held Q 10. [Foe some reason I felt he had 44 55 something like that.] five limpers... 6.9k in pot [600/1200 blinds] checked to me I bet 3k. Dooley re-raises to 9k. I call [Have him covered and 50k stack he has around 30k] 8 hits turn - he has pocket 8s bets 10k and I go all in.... So you know I have game... I win there I'm on 80k and cruising.

If Connie wins his hand he's in a mighty position... But if he had folded he would still have had a 13.5k stack and may have found a better opportunity. As Connie says the hand crippled him... and that's the problem. But in a regular tourney I do what Connie did every time.

phantom_lord

Fatboydim wrote:

I'm going to have to disagree Connie. I think it was a poor play at this stage of the tournament. You say he was BB and you lead out on the flop for 900. So I take it he's check raised you to 2600. That tells you all you need to know. He's strong. You also say he seems like a solid player so far. You're a slight favourite to TPTK, a slight dog to top set, and evens for top two. So either way you look at it you're putting a lot of faith in a coinflip at this stage of the tournament. It's too early for coin flips unless you're desperate. You've got three more days to get through if you want to win the IO. I folded AK twice preflop on Day 1... because I didn't want to get involved in coinflips for more than twenty five percent of my stack. This is no different. Day 1 is about survival. In a regular one day tourney, or on the third day of the tourney when you're aiming for the win... then the play is not so bad... but the more coinflips you take the more likely you'll get knocked out.

wtf

Fatboydim

connie147 wrote:

Hi Len When I re-reraised this guy all in, he had only 25% of his stack in the middle, with 8k left behind, plenty to play on with at 100-200 blind level. He had huge FE and I thought I'd pick up the pot there and then(the only 2 pots prior to that that I put serious chips into, I showed down the nuts both times).
And even if he calls, then I still think Im fav. but with the chance that he'll fold here a lot of the time, I do think its the right play.But thats why i posted the hand, to get different peoples opinions.

Hi Connie

I posted below before seeing your reply. It's a tough one for sure. An of course he has FE. You could have had QQQ ... But maybe the min-re-raise here looks stronger you make it 5.2k He has to seriously think that you want him to call. Therefore his two pair shrivels up in the face of that... as his only option is to re-raise all in or fold. A call here is not an option for him.

Lazare

Fatboydim wrote:

If Connie wins his hand he's in a mighty position... But if he had folded he would still have had a 13.5k stack and may have found a better opportunity.

Len, I know you're not a weak player, but this advice is horrible. It's the epitomy of weak tight play. And as for a better opportunity, this is a beautiful spot to be in, you've a huge draw, with an opponent who's caught a big piece of it too. I dream of such situations. I also don't agree with the whole 'first day of a tournament' stuff. This is a chance to amass a huge stack (relative to blinds) and should never be passed up imo. Winning this would've allowed Connie to totally open up his game and take control of the table.

Fatboydim

Listen guys it's why I don't give poker advice in my column - I'm ****e

ditpoker

Leif Force - WSOP - folded KK preflop more than once, folded a set to flush draws on the flop more than once. basically avoided putting his chips at risk unless he had a lock on the hand. his attitude was that if you play ten 70%-30% hands that you will go broke by the 10th... statistically you will definately be out of the tournament if you risk all your chips on 70-30's ten times. he won $1.2m ... perhaps he has a point? perhaps wat len is saying makes sense. better to survive and still be in!? then to be watching from the rail complaining about bad varience?!?

/open flood gates.

insafehands

Wow. Yuck. wtf?

A bit more should be added instead of a simple one-word reply. With respect.

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

sikes

ditpoker wrote:

Leif Force - WSOP - folded KK preflop more than once, folded a set to flush draws on the flop more than once. basically avoided putting his chips at risk unless he had a lock on the hand. his attitude was that if you play ten 70%-30% hands that you will go broke by the 10th... statistically you will definately be out of the tournament if you risk all your chips on 70-30's ten times. he won $1.2m ... perhaps he has a point? perhaps wat len is saying makes sense. better to survive and still be in!? then to be watching from the rail complaining about bad varience?!?

/open flood gates.

not really opening flood gates, most players are nits. You take 5000 nits, of course one of them is going to donk his way to big money. Hes just a fool of randomness.

I could not see any player like Negranu or hellmuth or hansen as mentioned above passing up this sort of edge whether they play small ball or not

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

Goodluck2me

i dont think tournament poker should be based purely on maths. i think perosnally its wrong to takt too many 50-50s in a tounrament ic ant see how it is profitable to do so. you will go out way too often for it to be profitable. I dont mind Connies play here at all and he does have FE and a massive draw, but i can see why people would disagree too. I played a hand like this in the JP deepstack game where i had 34d on a ad5dks flop and got it all inon the flop because i knew i was never a dog to any hand except Kdxd. taking risks like this whilst profitable should be kept to minimum imo too.

connie147

ditpoker wrote:

Leif Force - WSOP - folded KK preflop more than once, folded a set to flush draws on the flop more than once. basically avoided putting his chips at risk unless he had a lock on the hand. his attitude was that if you play ten 70%-30% hands that you will go broke by the 10th... statistically you will definately be out of the tournament if you risk all your chips on 70-30's ten times. he won $1.2m ... perhaps he has a point? perhaps wat len is saying makes sense. better to survive and still be in!? then to be watching from the rail complaining about bad varience?!?

/open flood gates.

Im not trying to defend my actions here, but if your to go on the above, then it was the french dude who made the mistake by calling the all in.

As for stacksizes on the table, I reckon I was chip leader on our table with 15k , it was the 3rd blind level.
And Ive no complaints about bad varience,just dissappointment.

opr

insafehands wrote:

Wow. Yuck. wtf?

A bit more should be added instead of a simple one-word reply. With respect.

Yeah i agree. I am not trying to be a smartass here but my honest opinion is that their is so much wrong with those posts i didn't know were to begin.

But i suppose if you don't have something constructive to add better to say nothing so point taken.

Opr

insafehands

UnLuckyLloyd wrote:

I feel that i did elaborate a little further subsequently - but you have a fair point.

Yeah, you did man. Shouldv'e directed that less towards you.

One-word replies make a point if someone is way off, but in this instance I think he made a fair point that deserved a fair reply.

ish.

By the way, I could equally do the same, and prob have done, so don't take this as me being patronising.

sikes

This kind of comes down to how much of an edge you can give up early in a tournament. Here is a thread that might be of interest

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/ubbthreads.php/ubb/showflat/Number/1018736/page/0/fpart/1

Though I think people might be underestimating how profitable this push is. Given the pot odds, our pot equity and folding equity and is certainly not a small edge

sikes

goodluck2me wrote:

i dont think tournament poker should be based purely on maths.

Of course it is. Just like everything that followed in you post is based on maths!

Fatboydim

Maths according to Phil Gordan.

We would all like to get our AA in preflop against KK right?

Phil Gordan gives an example of a five day tourney where he says he faces this situation 10 times. Now he's not suggesting folding AA preflop and neither am I but many of us will put ourselves into this position with draws, bluffs, when we think we're ahead etc. So taking best case scenario AA v KK.

1st time all in you are 81.26% fav
2nd 66.02%
3rd 53.65%

Down to the 10th time where you are a lowly 12.5% fav Because you have to not get unlucky Ten times.

Phil Gordon might not be the best pro out there nor does he claim to be. But it is sobering maths.

There will always be players who try to win the tourney on Day one... But it rarely happens.

opr

Fatboydim wrote:

Maths according to Phil Gordan.

We would all like to get our AA in preflop against KK right?

Phil Gordan gives an example of a five day tourney where he says he faces this situation 10 times. Now he's not suggesting folding AA preflop and neither am I but many of us will put ourselves into this position with draws, bluffs, when we think we're ahead etc. So taking best case scenario AA v KK.

1st time all in you are 81.26% fav
2nd 66.02%
3rd 53.65%

Down to the 10th time where you are a lowly 12.5% fav Because you have to not get unlucky Ten times.

Phil Gordon might not be the best pro out there nor does he claim to be. But it is sobering maths.

There will always be players who try to win the tourney on Day one... But it rarely happens.

If you flip a coin and 100 times in a row it lands on heads what are your chances of it being heads on the next flip ?

Opr