JJ flop confuzzeliser 1kNL

pok3rplaya

Villian seems fairly decent. He's aggro preflop and his RR range prob includes stupp like AJ/KQ maybe even more. So what do we do my fellow Davids?


- kv01mlg sitting in seat 1 with $1007.00
- MAchilles85 sitting in seat 2 with $279.38
- Canada-Rob sitting in seat 3 with $497.65
- PungJustatio sitting in seat 4 with $1181.00
- Steve0151 sitting in seat 5 with $2322.81 [Sitting out]
- Hero sitting in seat 6 with $1083.00 [Dealer]

kv01mlg posted the small blind - $5.00
MAchilles85 posted the big blind - $10.00

Dealt to hero Jd Js
2 folds, Hero raises to $40, kv01mlg raised to $135 in SB, BB folds, Hero calls.

Flop: 932 all hearts
He leads for $222, Hero???

Goodluck2me

folds...

ocallagh

is his range really that wide oop? if it is i shove, if not i fold this one.

robinlacey

to be honest a lot of the time i call here and hope he gives up on the turn

pok3rplaya

ocallagh wrote:

is his range really that wide oop? if it is i shove, if not i fold this one.

yep. Thats pretty standard for a decent TAG.

pok3rplaya

So so far we have one fold, one shove and one call.

bops

you called his reraise in position in order to trap him because you knew he'd lead OTF.

Out pops a raggy flop (perfect for you) and he leads...

...of course you're gonna continue (not saying you're ahead tho!)

if you wanted to check the validity of his hand you should reraise PF, it's too late for that now - so just finish what you've started!

I really don't understand the question - surely the hand worked out (so far) the way you wanted it??

...but for some reason everytime I see the 222 bet it's bullets :eek:

gl

EDIT: btw I wouldn't be afraid of the hhh flop

ocallagh

we should use g-dollars to work this one out. i vote robin does the calculations!

BigCityBanker

robinlacey wrote:

to be honest a lot of the time i call here and hope he gives up on the turn

I do the same.

What are the merits of this?

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

bops

BigCityBanker wrote:

I do the same.

What are the merits of this?

calling here makes you more likely to fold to a bluff on the turn

ie any H , a A/K/Q will make your balls shrink!!

be a man and get them in now!! you are probably ahead and the odds are in your favour to stay that way

god i'm very aggro this morning - this is way cheaper than 5/10

pok3rplaya

I'm gonna do some calculations on this later on, I'll post what I come up with.

pok3rplaya

LuckyLloyd wrote:

What stats are you running at? What is your table image like? Any particular direct history with villian? How would he view your play?

About 22/18. I dont hve a crazy image, just probably standard TAG. I reraise a decent amount pf as does villian, we've repopped each other a few times on different table though nothing that could be considered wild.

ianmc38

I would just call. I think calling and folding are both ok though. I like pushing the least of the 3 options.

phantom_lord

call, I really don't like a push here. I don't mind a fold tho/

ocallagh

If his range includes KQ+ AJ+ 66+ maybe more then how many hands are we ahead of?

If we call the pot is 700+ and I would hate to either fall behind or be bluffed off this hand. There are 16 cards in the deck that make this pot really difficult to play on the turn.

I can see the benefits of just calling but I don't think a push is out of the question..

If he was weak tight i'd definitely call.

pok3rplaya

I think one of the main problems with calling is that we are going to bluffed off the best hand a lot on the turn by hands such as AK/AQ/AJ with a heart and possibly even KQ with a heart. The standard logic of calling the flop so we can get our money in as a bigger favourite (then flipping against 2 overs and a FD on the flop) on the turn doesn't really apply because we see so many second barrels from hands we beat.

Also, as ocallagh just said, any A, K or Q can come on the turn and screw our hand against hands such as AK/AQ with no heart which make up a good portion of the range that we beat on the flop.

Ste05

This is a tricky situation, it seems obvious that he has a good hand as do we, IMO I think I just fold, if we raise we'll only get called by higher pairs or 2 overs with a flush draw, neither of which is great for us, and it costs us too much to find out, it's a good bet by the Villain, it asks us a question for our stack while risking the minimum of his.

Bandana boy

Against a standard button raise I see lots of repopping with random hands from SB
If you call expect a nearly pot size bet and they will have air here often (I think a 3 bet pre flop is justified here )
Against a near pot bet l would re-raise a lot but with the over bet on the flop from our friend I think this is AA or KK more than air

I think we can find a fold here

Ste05

Bandana boy wrote:

but with the over bet on the flop from our friend I think this is AA or KK more than air

Just FYI, it's not an over bet, the pot is ~270 and he bet 222. Very standard bet amount.

pok3rplaya

It's not an overbet. Pot is 270

Ollieboy

This would seem to be a fairly standard play for defending your blind and I'm guessing he thinks your weak on the button steal and just a continuation bet on the flop by him, the bet is big enough that if you call you must have him beat and its also big enough for you to fold if you miss or were on a steal, hes not betting extraction here. If he wants to trap or is stong, it would be 1/2 pot bet or even a check to see what you do, but in this case he's pushing, so I would be pretty sure your ahead at this stage. Also, if he had QQ/KK/AA here, he would more than likely flat call as he would let you fire again on the flop and check/raise on a rag flop.

Problem, does he have the Ace of hearts and does he have fold equity here with a big heart, also can he fold QQ here without a heart etc. I think raising here is fine and find out how good your hand is, calling is very weak and we'll have to give up the pot if he fires again with any heart or overcard falling. Raising will also be hard without the full stacks going in, so I think a open push here is fine, your only behind to 3 hands preflop and currently your only other worry is hearts....

I would expect to see AK/AQ here or middle pair. But I'm sure I'm wrong...lol

Ollieboy

robinlacey wrote:

to be honest a lot of the time i call here and hope he gives up on the turn

would normally agree with this, but there's to many cards that can fall on the turn that can beat us or make it hard to call another bet... but it would be the cheaper option and see the turn

califano

I think this is a good situation for a check min raise on the flop if he bets for around what you led for. This is good for getting him to fold AK AQ hands with a bet out of him and its good for not getting bluffed by these hands.
If he pushes after the reraise then you have a better idea and you can fold easier than you can now but hes not likely to push unless he's ahead. If he calls you can slow down and your check wont look weak because thats what you did on the flop. Give up if he bets the turn more that 1/2 pot.

robinlacey

i'm not saying i think a call is great or anything,but it seems to me to be by far the least bad option.

folding is too weak,if you're going to fold JJ on a 9 high flop then why call preflop in the first place?

pushing is hoping to get value from exactly TT (and if he's anyway decent he'll fold that anyway) and does all his work for him when he has QQ-AA,so the only advantage to pushing really is that it folds out overcards,but i think in general in poker as you move up the stakes and are playing better players protecting against draws is much less important than getting value or inducing bluffs.

also i think people are overestimating the chances of us getting bluffed on the turn,i think most of the time once you call the flop he gives up,and if that isn't the case then surely we want him to try and bluff the turn?

Bandana boy

Ste05 wrote:

Just FYI, it's not an over bet, the pot is ~270 and he bet 222. Very standard bet amount.

Ah yes must have forgotten to carry a 1 or something

So read dependent I see the cb with Air assuming we are on a button raise a lot
But i still think this is slightly bigger bet than a complete bluff will make

pok3rplaya

robinlacey wrote:

also i think people are overestimating the chances of us getting bluffed on the turn,i think most of the time once you call the flop he gives up,and if that isn't the case then surely we want him to try and bluff the turn?

I think the villian is definitly pushing any blank turn with two overs (one of them being a heart), he cant check call or check fold.

Also we only want him to bluff off his stack if we can snap call him and be sure of our hand. In this case we cant.

sikes

got around to doing those calculations yet?

pok3rplaya

Bandana boy wrote:

Ah yes must have forgotten to carry a 1 or something

So read dependent I see the cb with Air assuming we are on a button raise a lot
But i still think this is slightly bigger bet than a complete bluff will make

Villian has to bet bigger on this flop then what some might say is an optimal RR pot cbet size (60% or pot) because of the 3 hearts out there. It pays for him to protect his hand if he has one, and if he's not an idiot he'll bet the same if he doesn't have a hand. We cant read anything from his bet size IMO.

Ste05

robinlacey wrote:

folding is too weak,if you're going to fold JJ on a 9 high flop then why call preflop in the first place?

It's not weak, when we called Pre-Flop we weren't looking for a monotone flop and a lead that commits our whole stack without ever knowing where we stand, we never have alot of equity in this hand and certainly folding is fine. I'm also not saying calling is bad, but it's not weak to fold.

pok3rplaya

sikes wrote:

got around to doing those calculations yet?

Nope, I'm currently 25 pages into my thesis though.

sikes

lol, i know the feeling! creating my thesis presentation atm, loads of fun.

robinlacey

i missed that it was a monotone flop.
i still think i prefer a call for the reasons i gave above (or at least most of them),but i like the sitaution even less now.

robinlacey

ok now there's another reason to push the flop,ie to get value from AK with one heart type hands,but its not like we're in great shape against them anyway so i think that's only a minor factor.

pok3rplaya

Imagine for a second he has AK and he plans to push any turn card if he has a heart in his hand (at this point we don't know what he has). Any Ace, K, Q or heart (because during the hand we don't actually know he has no heart) turn ruins our hand if we call, and a certain percentage of the time we fold the best hand on the turn when he pushes with AhKx. In this specific case (where we discount AA/KK/QQ completely) is calling or pushing better?


I dunno if peiople get that, I cant really explain what I'm asking well.

Ste05

It's very simple really, even against AhKx someone with Pokerstove just do the calcs and we'll see we don't have much equity in the hand. Even compare it to 10h10x and it's not completely fantastic, this is a hand where whether or not we have the best hand or not is irrelevant, because even against the bottom of the Villains range we're not in amazing shape.

Unless for some reason we think that the Villain will do this with complete Air we can't do anything profitably here other than fold. Calling is slightly better because we're never stacking off if another H falls, but other than that all we're trying to achieve by calling is getting to a showdown. If the opponent makes any more moves on the pot at any stage in the hand we have to give it up.

fuzzbox

robinlacey wrote:

ok now there's another reason to push the flop,ie to get value from AK with one heart type hands,but its not like we're in great shape against them anyway so i think that's only a minor factor.

Especially since AK with one heart is a favourite vs us !

fuzzbox

Ste05 wrote:

It's very simple really, even against AhKx someone with Pokerstove just do the calcs and we'll see we don't have much equity in the hand. Even compare it to 10h10x and it's not completely fantastic, this is a hand where whether or not we have the best hand or not is irrelevant, because even against the bottom of the Villains range we're not in amazing shape.

Unless for some reason we think that the Villain will do this with complete Air we can't do anything profitably here other than fold. Calling is slightly better because we're never stacking off if another H falls, but other than that all we're trying to achieve by calling is getting to a showdown. If the opponent makes any more moves on the pot at any stage in the hand we have to give it up.

All of this, while true, is not the complete story.

We can protect ourselves against 6h6x by shoving, and villain will fold, even though he has 11 outs twice, which is quite a lot. And also because we are likely to check down if a 4th heart hits and lose Vs 6h6x in a showdown. Since the pot is big now - ~500 = 50 BBs, its worth considering ways for us to try to take it down.

If villain will only bet this flop with hands that are either ahead of our range (higher overpairs, sets, made flushes) or ahead of our range (two overs with a big heart), then we can fold. But if not, then we need a better plan than to simply fold.

Of course, shoving and running into the nuts or into AhAx or KhKx hurts us a lot. Getting him to fold AcQh is a very good thing for us.

sikes

pok3rplaya wrote:

Imagine for a second he has AK and he plans to push any turn card if he has a heart in his hand (at this point we don't know what he has). Any Ace, K, Q or heart (because during the hand we don't actually know he has no heart) turn ruins our hand if we call, and a certain percentage of the time we fold the best hand on the turn when he pushes with AhKx. In this specific case (where we discount AA/KK/QQ completely) is calling or pushing better?


I dunno if peiople get that, I cant really explain what I'm asking well.

we cant really work it out without knowing how likely he will call with the nut FD and the second nut FD on the flop, to the push

pok3rplaya

sikes wrote:

we cant really work it out without knowing how likely he will call with the nut FD and the second nut FD on the flop, to the push

He calls with AhKx and AxKh 100% of the time. We possibly start getting into folding territory when he holds AxQh.

sikes

pok3rplaya wrote:

He calls with AhKx and AxKh 100% of the time. We possibly start getting into folding territory when he holds AxQh.

There could well be mistakes here but anyway:

16 combinations, 6 of which have one heart only:

We push:

.375-> calls our push cos he has a heart
2100-> Our stack + his stack + BB
76-> Our stack - His stack
1450->Our stack + BB + 135 + 222

=SUM(0.375*(0.68*(2100) + 0.32*(76)) + 0.625*(1450))

= 1450.87

We call:

16 scare cards.
.355 -> scare card hits and we cant win the hand
.375-> has a heart and pushes
.68-> our equity when we call
730-> Our stack - 135 - 222.
1450-> Our stack + 222 + 135 + BB

=SUM(0.355*(730) + 0.645*(0.375*(0.68*(2100) + 0.32*(76)) + 0.625*(1450)))

= 1194.96

I think thats what your were looking for and i it makes sense that pushing has a higher EV as he doesnt have AK with a heart enough to put the money in behind. So we might as well get it in on the flop against AhKx as a coin flip while getting all the other AK out as our action will be killed on the turn too much and he isnt pushing with a sole heart in his hand enough.

This is ignoring the times that he has AhKh which should really be taken into account. We will only be saved when a scare card hits in that scenario.

TheSpaniard

I really dont like this position and due to the 3 hearts and none in your hand what can you reasonably hope that he has in his hand?
At the very least an overcard that is a heart.
If you call and as you say a heart or an overcard comes where are you?
If a 3rd Jack comes - then there still must be a chance (a gd chance if its Jh) that you are behind.
I would fold but I would have reraised or folded preflop.

insafehands

You called his raise, get a great flop (aside from hearts), he makes a standard bet, you can only be afraid of hearts. Have you seen him play many suited connectors?

Don't see him with an overpair, more AK,AQ or hearts.

pok3rplaya

insafehands wrote:

Don't see him with an overpair, more AK,AQ or hearts.

What? Why cant he have an overpair??

fuzzbox

pok3rplaya wrote:

What? Why cant he have an overpair??

Just put him on AK with no hearts and shove ... poker is easy.

Captain Tom

pok3rplaya wrote:

What? Why cant he have an overpair??

is there any chance he check/calls flop shoves blank turn with AA/KK/QQ no heart?

pok3rplaya

fuzzbox wrote:

Just put him on AK with no hearts and shove ... poker is easy.

Yeah I was gonna make a sarcastic remark like that but I thought it would be too mean. As everyone knows I like to be PC on boards.

pok3rplaya

Captain Tom wrote:

is there any chance he check/calls flop shoves blank turn with AA/KK/QQ no heart?

I doubt it. Interesting line though.

cardshark202

All things considered I don't hate shoving this flop as much as I do folding. If the flop was two-tone or rainbow I would prefer calling.

TheSpaniard

what did you do and what did he have??????????????????????????

bops

he wimped out and folded so you'll never know!!