Poll shows big drop for FF in Dublin

Múinteoir

It has them 5% down on their 2002 figure. Greens are big winners in the poll

New poll suggests capital backlash for Fianna Fail on eve of their Ard Fheis

Ahern faces loss of up to six seats in Dublin

FIANNA Fail is in danger of losing half a dozen seats in Dublin in the general election.

That is the main conclusion from a new poll showing its current standing in the capital is 32pc - 5pc down on its 2002 showing.

It also shows the Rainbow Coalition of Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens are seven points ahead of the outgoing government on combined totals in the capital.

The poll outcome will come as a shock to Taoiseach Bertie Ahern as Fianna Fail delegates gather later today for a two-day Ard-Fheis widely regarded as being their general election launch pad.

Such a scale of reverses in the capital - the cockpit of the election - would come as a major setback to Mr Ahern in his ambition to record a three-in-a-row.

In comparison, the poll will give the alternative government renewed hope as all the parties gear up for a tough election campaign. Fine Gael has gained more than 4pc on its poor result in the metropolitan area five years ago and is now on 18pc.

The party has just three seats in the capital, following its disastrous performance five years ago when it lost 23 seats in all and went down to just 31 nationally.

But it is in with a big chance of regaining several of the crucial seats in key Dublin constituencies such as South, South East and South West if it can repeat the performance in this poll on election day.

Fianna Fail could face the prospect of losing a seat in some of the Dublin constituencies in which it currently holds two seats, with potential problems looming in North-East, North-West, North, South-Central and South-West.

The contrasting fortunes for the two largest parties come in a survey conducted by Lansdowne Market Research for today's 'Irish Daily Star'.

And there is continuing good news for the Greens as their upward curve continues following a series of polls showing their fortunes improving throughout the country.

They have a 5pc increase on their figure for 2002 and now stand at 13pc in the capital, the home of five of its six TDs, including leader Trevor Sargent.

Such an increase, if repeated on polling day, gives them realistic chances of reaching double figures.

The outcome of the 47 seats in the 12 Dublin constituencies will go a long way towards deciding whether Fianna Fail or Fine Gael heads the next Government.

The poll shows Labour at 14pc, down 1pc in Dublin on 2002. The PDs are also down 1pc to 6pc, Sinn Fein drop 2pc to 7pc while Independents and others are unchanged on 9pc.

While the current Government of Fianna Fail and the PDs totals only 38pc on these figures, the Rainbow of Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens outstrips them on 45pc.

The survey was conducted among a sample of 500 adults who say they are likely to vote. The pollsters say the maximum error margin is of 4pc (compared with 3pc on a sample of 1,000).

ballooba

I'd love to do a little dance right now, but I know there is only one poll that really counts. Fingers crossed though.

Múinteoir

ballooba wrote:

I'd love to do a little dance right now, but I know there is only one poll that really counts. Fingers crossed though.

Personally I think it underestimates the meltdown in Dublin actually. But yes, only time will tell. Finger and toes crossed.

ballooba

I would expect some BIG announcements from the FF árd fheis this weekend. Their campaign doesn't really seem to have built any momentum despite the new NDP and numerous high (media) profile bills.

The "Bertie's Team" posters that have been popping up around the city are cringeful. Not to mention that they smack of arrogance i.e. "we'll get in because we're Bertie's Boys".

MontgomeryClift

The talk from Fianna Fáil has been to do with prudence and all that, as if the opposition were being crafty by making promises. It's a bizarre change from 2002 when the government fought the election on the back of two destructive tax giveaway budgets and a hastily-made collection of lies (promises) about every major issue.

It could be that the media and electorate are wise to that trick - the 2002 election buying scheme has become notorious - and Progressive Fáil know they can't do it again. Or maybe they're just out of energy and haven't the stomach for the difficult economic times ahead and in their subconscious are prepared to lose. Or maybe they just need McCreevy back. He seemed to be the only one who had the stomach to unapologetically vandalise the economy to win an election.

K-9

It would be hard to see FF not losing seats in Dublin especially when FG have only 3. The Rainbow needs to gain 25/27 seats nationally, approx. 1/2 of what they have.

FG/Lab have 32% of the vote, same as FF in this poll

The Greens seem to be the key to the Rainbow winning Dublin. Maybe a transfers pact is needed for the Greens to FG/Lab as even Bertie at the Ard Fheis is playing the Green Card.

I think the main political parties are seeing that the protest vote in this election is going to the Greens and it looks like SF will be doing well to hold it's seats.

38 to 45 is still a small difference giving the PR system and the impact of transfers. There is a margin of error of 4%. Vote management is crucial as FF showed last time.

Oh yeah, FF wasn't the only party with voter pleasing manifestos. FG and the Eircom tax rebate comes to mind.

Elmo

The Greens should stand on there own two feet.

At the end of the election they will have to make a choice and that choice could include FF.

Labour shouldn't go into pacts with FG, it doesn't help them. They should aim to be the 2nd party in the dail.

I believe that their are many FF voters have change party and their votes will be given to Labour, The Greens and SF.

legs11

thats bleedin rapid.........!

i hope all the dubs go against the useless gobshyte bertie, he is in charge of our nation for a long time, and its not getting any better. all he does he nutter on nonsense with his trademark smirk......


FACT.

ballooba

Seanies32 wrote:

The Greens seem to be the key to the Rainbow winning Dublin. Maybe a transfers pact is needed for the Greens to FG/Lab as even Bertie at the Ard Fheis is playing the Green Card.

The FG/Lab voting pact is explicit.
The FG/Lab/Green voting pact is implicit.

I think the green party have let people know where their preference lies. It's up to us now!

SeanW

I imagine the Greens would not be keen to go into business with FF unless they got serious environmental committments from them. I notice that FF has been trying to increase it's green credentials with Transport 21, and a whole bunch of orders for new trains, a much talked about climate strategy etc.

I certainly agree with the FG/Labour pact, their policies and traditional stances are different, but they're united in their position as a credible alternative government. FF sucks.

Elmo

The Greens have not stated that they will not go into government with FF.

I think if it comes down to it and the numbers don't add up for the Rainbow Coalition then the Greens should go into government with FF. Perhaps if they really want another party they should say to FF that if they go into government with FF then Labour comes in with the Greens.

The Greens have not totally ruled out FF. It is silly to be going into an election closing doors on possablities.

I personally don't want to see FG, FF or the PD's in government next time round. (But that's defo not a possiblity, wouldn't like to close all my doors lol, well bar the PD's)

Leader Trevor Sargent has stated that he will not be Tainiste in a FF/Green government and that he would also look to see that Fahy and Cullen are not in the next cabinet should they go into government with FF. He will take a ministerial position in such a government but he will not be leader of the Green party. This is a good position which never rules out anything.

ballooba

Elmo wrote:

I personally don't want to see FG, FF or the PD's in government next time round. (But that's defo not a possiblity, wouldn't like to close all my doors lol, well bar the PD's).

That is impossible at the moment. It will never happen in our lifetimes.

Múinteoir

Elmo wrote:

Leader Trevor Sargent has stated that he will not be Tainiste in a FF/Green government and that he would also look to see that Fahy and Cullen are not in the next cabinet should they go into government with FF. He will take a ministerial position in such a government but he will not be leader of the Green party. This is a good position which never rules out anything.

Has any other party leader stated that he would step down as leader rather than go into coalition with FF? I think you're not going get much more of a guarantee than that from any party.

K-9

M&#250 wrote: »

Has any other party leader stated that he would step down as leader rather than go into coalition with FF? I think you're not going get much more of a guarantee than that from any party.

So if the numbers don't add up for the Rainbow and FF need the support of either the Greens or Labour these 2 parties with votes of 13/14% in this poll have a veto on the next Govt. I don't think the electorate would be to happy if there had to be another election because the Greens/Lab didn't do a deal with FF for a stable Govt.

Múinteoir

Seanies32 wrote:

So if the numbers don't add up for the Rainbow and FF need the support of either the Greens or Labour these 2 parties with votes of 13/14% in this poll have a veto on the next Govt. I don't think the electorate would be to happy if there had to be another election because the Greens/Lab didn't do a deal with FF for a stable Govt.

It could just as easily be argued that the majority of the electorate who don't vote FF would be even more pissed off that either of those parties might keep the same shower in power a la Dick Spring in 1992 and then they would massacred come the next election, as happened to Labour in 1997. You can spin this stuff anyway you like.

Dr Galen

what did you all make of Bertie's keynote (election manifesto) speech.

Personally I wasn't that impressed, sure it got the FF masses all riled up but tbh I've stopped trusting FF a long way back.

I particularly liked his quip about how FF Will employ the nurses that this countries patients need......sure they can't pay the ones we've got properly and won't take any more to fill the drastic shortages we have right now in some hospitals. where will this cash come from?

K-9

That Govt. also fell for what a lot of people felt where personal rather than political reasons, despite the appalling Brendan Smyth affair. U could argue other reasons why Labour never got back to the level of 1992. Maybe they where just the protest vote at the time? Democratic Left did well at that election as well.

Labour where in Govt. with the rainbow, not FF come the 97 election. Maybe the Govt. of the time at more to do with it than the FF/Lab Govt from 3 years previous.

There are many reasons why Labour haven't got back to that level, not just a decision they made 15 years ago. Labour should look at their own party and electoral record rather than blaming FF 15 years ago.

My point wasn't a spin at all. If FF get say 38/39% why should a party who gets say 10/16% have a veto on going into Govt. with them, especially if the Rainbow numbers don't add up.

Or maybe we should have a FG/Lab/Greens/Ind coalition which would be more unstable and expensive for the country than a stable 2 Party Govt.

Also, maybe the Greens/Lab would get more of their policies enacted in a 2 party Govt. rather than a Rainbow with Independent support.

If that scenario happened and a 2 party Govt. was the realistic option, the electorate would punish the Greens/Lab for not putting the country first and IMO would suffer at an election a couple of months later. The electorate would be wondering why they would be voting twice in the space of a couple of months, ala the 1980's, and would blame them for not sorting out a Govt.

If the Greens/Lab went into Govt. they wouldn't be massacred on going into Govt. with FF in the next election. They would go into the next election based on their Govt. record just as FF have to do.

K-9

nurse_baz wrote:

what did you all make of Bertie's keynote (election manifesto) speech.

Personally I wasn't that impressed, sure it got the FF masses all riled up but tbh I've stopped trusting FF a long way back.

I particularly liked his quip about how FF Will employ the nurses that this countries patients need......sure they can't pay the ones we've got properly and won't take any more to fill the drastic shortages we have right now in some hospitals. where will this cash come from?

Well it was a FF Ard Fheis!

There is a shortage of nurses at Cork maternity hospital at the moment! Seriously, I don't want to believe the spin from the HSE that relocation expenses are delaying the opening but with this health system, I don't know



Where will the cash come from for nurses for the Cork maternity hospital for relocation expenses? I'm not sure, hopefully not from the taxpayer. If I had to relocate my job, I would like to see the answer from my employer when I was looking for relocation expenses.

Hopefully it isn't true. I think people are very sick! pardon the pun! of vested interests in the Health system generally.

There seems to a: it's not my fault, it's their's ethos.

NewDubliner

nurse_baz wrote:

what did you all make of Bertie's keynote (election manifesto) speech.

The announcement that Civil Services would have to use energy-efficient light bulbs is a sham, since almost all offices use low-energy flourescent tubes anyway.

With his Dublin vote slipping away, you'd think he'd have had the good sense to call off the the 'Decentralisation' project, he could have picked up some badly-needed votes.

It's too late now, FF have blown it. Nobody is going to believe any doorstep promises.

Dontico

polls dont really matter. the new gov will be decided on the day. people may start to tick the FF box then remember something on the news about rape victims then decide to tick the FG box.

dublin is starting to go down a spiral of crime. gun violence is on the rise. where i live there has been gun crime up the road, down the road, the road to the left of and the road to the right of me in the past year. so i know i'll be voting for the law and order party. as i would imagine most dublin people that have be effected by crime will.

Good.

Múinteoir

legs11 wrote:

thats bleedin rapid.........!

i hope all the dubs go against the useless gobshyte bertie, he is in charge of our nation for a long time, and its not getting any better. all he does he nutter on nonsense with his trademark smirk......


FACT.

Even if there is a FF meltdown in Dublin, Bertie Ahern will still top the poll in Dublin Central. Sad but true. But at least he may have Patricia McKenna as company!

ISAW

Dontico wrote:

polls dont really matter. the new gov will be decided on the day. people may start to tick the FF box then remember something on the news about rape victims then decide to tick the FG box.

Eh? We have a PR system. It isnt about ticking boxes. Unless you are a no 1 plumper! And no party is campaining for that.

dublin is starting to go down a spiral of crime.

really? Yo can support tish comment can you? In fact I suggest you look at crime stats from ten years ago and compare them to now. With the exception of some violent crime all crime AFAIK is DOWN!

gun violence is on the rise. where i live there has been gun crime up the road, down the road, the road to the left of and the road to the right of me in the past year.

So yu vote based on personal experience? And if burgulary is DOWN in your area that hasnt anythiong to do with the government I suppose? But if it is UP it HAS to do with them? So you are saying for the record if gun crimes decrease you woulf certainly vote FF/PD?

so i know i'll be voting for the law and order party. as i would imagine most dublin people that have be effected by crime will.

Who are they? The PD's ? SF? Maybe you are referring to FG? What is a "law and order" party?

skearon

legs11 wrote:

thats bleedin rapid.........!

i hope all the dubs go against the useless gobshyte bertie, he is in charge of our nation for a long time, and its not getting any better. all he does he nutter on nonsense with his trademark smirk......


FACT.

Fact? Your opinion is not fact

Perhaps you have forgotten about little things such as the peace process, lower taxes, full employment, recycling now at 37% vs 7% in 1997, WEEE implementation, child benefit increases, child supplement, 7,000 more teachers, 45,000 extra 3rd level places since 1997, massive pension and social welfare rises, 700,000 more people at work compared to 1997, 42,000 new socal houses since 1997, €21Billion in NDP to build 160,000 social and affording houses, etc etc etc

"not getting better" ? The real FACTS point to the opposite conclusion.

ballooba

ISAW wrote:

really? Yo can support tish comment can you? In fact I suggest you look at crime stats from ten years ago and compare them to now. With the exception of some violent crime all crime AFAIK is DOWN!

You can quote statistics all you like. It's a favourite past time of Bertie's. You also have to have a look around you. You have to be aware of how many of your friends have been victims of crime. You also have to be ware of how many have reported those crimes.

The fact is that most crime goes unreported. The Gardai don't have time to be dealing with non-serious crime. People have become disillusioned. They just take it on the cheek.

I have reported two crimes in the last twelve months. One was €1,200 worth of damage and the other was €1,600. One was unsolvable so was never written up. The other was dealt with outside the system by the Garda so was never written up.

Most late night assaults would not be reported unless someone was badly injured. A friend was hopped two weeks ago walking up Harcourt St in the early hours. We were right next to a Garda station but we sorted it out ourselves. Most of these type of assaults would never be reported.

ISAW wrote:

Who are they? The PD's ? SF? Maybe you are referring to FG? What is a "law and order" party?

The law and order parties are typically those seen as right of centre. They are the PDs and FG. FG will be getting the lion's share of these votes because the PDs have failed to keep their main promise from last time round.

nurse_baz

nurse_baz wrote:

what did you all make of Bertie's keynote (election manifesto) speech.

With his speech I thought he was trying out for a lead roll in a new Braveheart film

I can't see FF being elected this time round, if they are, whoever votes them in are either rich or completely stupid. They have messed up the country big time, what with wasting tax payers money (ie electronic voting machines etc..), the sham of a medical system we have, prices going up on everything and wages not following suit, flood loads of foreign nationals coming in and taking our jobs as they will work for less pay, roads are a joke, justice system is a mess, crime on the way up, the list goes on....

McSandwich

skearon wrote:

Fact? Your opinion is not fact

Perhaps you have forgotten about little things such as the peace process, lower taxes, full employment, recycling now at 37% vs 7% in 1997, WEEE implementation, child benefit increases, child supplement, 7,000 more teachers, 45,000 extra 3rd level places since 1997, massive pension and social welfare rises, 700,000 more people at work compared to 1997, 42,000 new socal houses since 1997, €21Billion in NDP to build 160,000 social and affording houses, etc etc etc

That level of productivity is the least I'd expect after 10 years in power and the benefit of a booming economy with lots of tax money rolling in..

K-9

ballooba wrote:

Most late night assaults would not be reported unless someone was badly injured. A friend was hopped two weeks ago walking up Harcourt St in the early hours. We were right next to a Garda station but we sorted it out ourselves. Most of these type of assaults would never be reported.


The law and order parties are typically those seen as right of centre. They are the PDs and FG. FG will be getting the lion's share of these votes because the PDs have failed to keep their main promise from last time round.

How did you sort it out yourselves? You where next to a Garda station so you could have reported it to the. I take it there where witnesses? If you don't report it then the justice system can't do anything about it.

Then again the courts are full of often petty cases like GBH, that have more to do with drink and drugs than anything else and which are often actually wasting Gardai time.

Non detection of burglaries wasn't an issue under the Rainbow? Let's face it a lot burglaries are going to go unreported and undetected as they have always done in every country. Should we fund Gardai on every corner street 24 hours, IMO no, it would be a waste of taxpayers funds.

There is and always has been a drink culture in Ireland. Maybe it's more obvious now with extra money about. Is that the Govts. fault, no. We are all well educated on the problems of drink, it's a society problem.

Wages are going up, too much in many people's eye affecting productivity. Wages are agreed by social partnership, Govt. , Unions and Business together, it's a consenus approach.

It's easy to blame foreign nationals, which are coming because of the success of Ireland, and many are choosing to stay, despite some quite racist attitudes to them. With low unemployment there a lot of jobs Irish people choose not to do because they are considered beneath them. Fair play to foreign nationals for doing them.

Our roads are a major improvement on 5, never mind 20 years ago and are being delivered on time and on budget.

Productivity is going to be harder and harder to improve now that we are a successful economy. Same problems Germany, France etc. face.

Mtchell McLoughlin, on Q&A tonight actually commended FF on the money that is now being allocated on R&D and was saying how the South is an example for the North on this. Hard to believe I'd agree with SF but there you are. Other European countries, including Holland, are following our lead on Corporation tax.

There are plenty of examples of the glass being half full, with more being done to fill it. The Health system is finally starting to get sorted.

See the HSE have wrote to the Nursing Unions and said if the Cork Maternity Hospital isn't open by Saturday, the 200 new posts created for it will not go ahead. At last they are facing the Unions and showing how self interested they are.

ballooba

Seanies32 wrote:

How did you sort it out yourselves? You where next to a Garda station so you could have reported it to the. I take it there where witnesses? If you don't report it then the justice system can't do anything about it.

I stepped in with the help of a nearby bouncer and pulled them apart. My friend wasn't badly hurt. He didn't want to risk the Gardai lumping him in a cell too. He wanted to get home.

Most assaults don't occur right next to a Garda station anyway. More often than not when I am on a night out in Dublin I see people assaulted.

Seanies32 wrote:

Non detection of burglaries wasn't an issue under the Rainbow? Let's face it a lot burglaries are going to go unreported and undetected as they have always done in every country.

I never mentioned burglaries. The crimes committed on my property were a hit and run on my car and vandalism of my car. I'm talking about people not reporting crime because there is no point but also Gardai not writing stuff up because there is no point. Non-violent crime is not a priority.

ballooba

Seanies32 wrote:

Wages are going up, too much in many people's eye affecting productivity. Wages are agreed by social partnership, Govt. , Unions and Business together, it's a consenus approach.

Fianna Fail has failed to address the imbalance between public and private sector pay rates.

Seanies32 wrote:

It's easy to blame foreign nationals, which are coming because of the success of Ireland, and many are choosing to stay, despite some quite racist attitudes to them. With low unemployment there a lot of jobs Irish people choose not to do because they are considered beneath them. Fair play to foreign nationals for doing them.

Most of these people are working in construction and not export industry. So effectively this is an import. They will take a lot of this money with them in the form of savings when they leave.

Seanies32 wrote:

Our roads are a major improvement on 5, never mind 20 years ago and are being delivered on time and on budget.

This government has been in office for ten years. Fianna Fail has been in government for 17 of the last 20 years. They have failed to provide us with proper rail and road infrastructure when the economy was booming.

Seanies32 wrote:

Mtchell McLoughlin, on Q&A tonight actually commended FF on the money that is now being allocated on R&D and was saying how the South is an example for the North on this.

Fianna Fail is funding this R&D for the benefit of IDA acked foreign multinationals. I would like to see more emphasis on Enterprise Ireland backed indigenous exporters. This is not a policy of Fine Gael as far as I am aware, but I would like it to be. Fianna Fail are poor in terms of supporting indigenous firms who want to think big. Especially in the area of renewables.

ISAW

ballooba wrote:

You can quote statistics all you like.

Any you will ignore researched stats as opposed to your personal experience and opinion?

The fact is that most crime goes unreported.

So what? Most went unreported ten years ago as well? Are you claiming a higher proportion of crime goes un reported now than the same types of crime ten years ago?
prove it!

The Gardai don't have time to be dealing with non-serious crime. People have become disillusioned. They just take it on the cheek.

Assault is not Non serious. it is an inditable offence!

I have reported two crimes in the last twelve months. One was €1,200 worth of damage and the other was €1,600. One was unsolvable so was never written up. The other was dealt with outside the system by the Garda so was never written up.

You couldnt have oficially reported crime and it not be in the stats of official "reported crime". Are you saying the Garda didnt record it and sauid you were wasting your time? That is a serious accusation about a garda not doing their duty!

Most late night assaults would not be reported unless someone was badly injured.

As is true ten years ago. But I note you poicked one of the few crimes that actually INCREASED over the last ten years? Would most frauds not be reported? Or a higher proportion of burgalaries not be reported?

A friend was hopped two weeks ago walking up Harcourt St in the early hours. We were right next to a Garda station but we sorted it out ourselves. Most of these type of assaults would never be reported.

i.e. you disregarded the law and took it into your own hands to do as you pleased? You witnessed a criminal act and didnt follow through on it even though beside a station? So much for respecting "law and order" eh?

The law and order parties are typically those seen as right of centre.

By you r definition. The "police state" may also be called right of centre. And others would say the republicans (who are regardes as far left) "police their own areas and keep order".

They are the PDs and FG. FG will be getting the lion's share of these votes because the PDs have failed to keep their main promise from last time round.

Would that be the 16000 police we now have?

ballooba

ISAW wrote:

Any you will ignore researched stats as opposed to your personal experience and opinion?

When the statistics are betraying the reality I and others are seeing around me then yes.

Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics.

ISAW wrote:

So what? Most went unreported ten years ago as well? Are you claiming a higher proportion of crime goes un reported now than the same types of crime ten years ago?
prove it!

Yes I am.

Here is one report which details increasing crime levels in Ireland :
http://www.gallup-europe.be/euics/Xz38/downloads/EUICS%20-%20The%20Burden%20of%20Crime%20in%20the%20EU.pdf

ISAW wrote:

Assault is not Non serious. it is an inditable offence!

You couldnt have oficially reported crime and it not be in the stats of official "reported crime". Are you saying the Garda didnt record it and sauid you were wasting your time? That is a serious accusation about a garda not doing their duty![/QUOTE]
I'm beginning to wonder if you live in the real world at all.

ISAW wrote:

i.e. you disregarded the law and took it into your own hands to do as you pleased? You witnessed a criminal act and didnt follow through on it even though beside a station? So much for respecting "law and order" eh?

How exactly did I take the law into my own hands? Read my previous post above. Again real world.

ISAW wrote:

By you r definition. The "police state" may also be called right of centre. And others would say the republicans (who are regardes as far left) "police their own areas and keep order".

Fine Gael and PDs are traditionally know as the Law & Order parties. I'm not sure what you are referring to with Republicans. Sinn Fein have endorsed the PSNI.

ISAW wrote:

Would that be the 16000 police we now have?

No their main promise was to keep FF in line.

jjbrien

Did anbody hear why Betie said at the weekend it is our Destiny to Govern. Sould like somebody is getting too big for thier shoes. He and his cronies seem to think that god has delcared them rulers of ireland for all time. I think most people are sick of FF thinking that they will always be in power.

Múinteoir

jjbrien wrote:

Did anbody hear why Betie said at the weekend it is our Destiny to Govern. Sould like somebody is getting too big for thier shoes. He and his cronies seem to think that god has delcared them rulers of ireland for all time. I think most people are sick of FF thinking that they will always be in power.

De Valera stated that he only had to look into his own heart to know what the Irish people wanted. So no surprises there really.

ballooba

It is scary that Fianna Fail are using stability and experience as their main selling point.

Cuba and North Korea have had the same stable government for decades. Their leaders also benefit from decades of experience. Is this the ideal scenario for Fianna Fail?

K-9

ballooba wrote:

I stepped in with the help of a nearby bouncer and pulled them apart. My friend wasn't badly hurt. He didn't want to risk the Gardai lumping him in a cell too. He wanted to get home.

Most assaults don't occur right next to a Garda station anyway. More often than not when I am on a night out in Dublin I see people assaulted.

I never mentioned burglaries. The crimes committed on my property were a hit and run on my car and vandalism of my car. I'm talking about people not reporting crime because there is no point but also Gardai not writing stuff up because there is no point. Non-violent crime is not a priority.

It was your friends choice not to report it. He had an independent witness so he wouldn't have been thrown into a cell as well.

The hit and run and vandalism on your car are going to be hard to prove unless there is witnesses. Unfortunately that is going to be the case no matter what Government is in power. How are FG/Lab going to change that? I would be interested in knowing how they are? If they have some policies that are going to cut down assaults and vandalism then I would like to know them.

Most assaults are drink related. This is more a cultural and parental problem than a Government problem. The Govt. can only advise and educate on drink problems.

What pay imbalances are you talking about? CEO's getting paid more than departmental heads of the Civil Service. The Government cannot intervene in the private sector on wage rates, other than a minimum wage. There is the social partnership process, which Govt. Employers and Unions all agree on and sign.

May non nationals will stay in Ireland and pay taxes. It's easy to say they will all go home. Just look at the Irish emigrating, many choose to stay in other countries and pay taxes and contribute to other countries.

Roads and Rail infrastructure has improved. How many motorways and dual carriageways do we have now compared to 5/10 years ago.

FG are the law and order party. Remind me who was in Govt. when Veronica Guerin was shot. FG did introduce CAB , it was a necessary response to the violent crime at the time. Does that mean they are a law and order party, not necessarily. DeVelera and Des O'Malley where tough on the IRA as well.

FF have been in power because they are the most successful political party in Ireland. They where democratically elected. How is that a problem?

ballooba

Seanies32 wrote:

The hit and run and vandalism on your car are going to be hard to prove unless there is witnesses.

I had a witness to the hit and run. The Garda chose to resolve the matter outside of the system.

Seanies32 wrote:

What pay imbalances are you talking about?

Public sector workers earn 35-40% more than their private sector counterparts.

Seanies32 wrote:

Roads and Rail infrastructure has improved. How many motorways and dual carriageways do we have now compared to 5/10 years ago.

I would hardly expect it to dis-improve. It hasn't improved quickly enough. How long have we been waiting for the Navan rail line? How long will we be waiting for the two Luas line to be built?

Seanies32 wrote:

FF have been in power because they are the most successful political party in Ireland. They where democratically elected. How is that a problem?

People get the government they deserve. If the people elect Fianna Fail again then good luck to them. They should remember what Charlie Haughey was doing while he was in power and that Bertie was in cahoots with him.

Fianna Fail think that they are beyond reproach. We have Dick Roche claiming he is not responsible for his own election posters, we had Noel Killeen claiming no responsibility for letters signed in his name, we have Bertie claiming no responsibility for cheques he signed and not so long ago we had Michael Martin claiming that as Minister for Health he had no responsibility for failings at that department.

K-9

ballooba wrote:

I had a witness to the hit and run. The Garda chose to resolve the matter outside of the system.

Public sector workers earn 35-40% more than their private sector counterparts.

I would hardly expect it to dis-improve. It hasn't improved quickly enough. How long have we been waiting for the Navan rail line? How long will we be waiting for the two Luas line to be built?

People get the government they deserve. If the people elect Fianna Fail again then good luck to them. They should remember what Charlie Haughey was doing while he was in power and that Bertie was in cahoots with him.

Fianna Fail think that they are beyond reproach. We have Dick Roche claiming he is not responsible for his own election posters, we had Noel Killeen claiming no responsibility for letters signed in his name, we have Bertie claiming no responsibility for cheques he signed and not so long ago we had Michael Martin claiming that as Minister for Health he had no responsibility for failings at that department.

How did the Guards resolve it outside the system. Did he repay you for the damage done?

Saying public servants earn 35-40% more than Private sector workers is a generalisation. I'm sure teachers, accountants, solicitors and nurses would agree with you. Clerical workers in construction get €30,000 - 35,000 p.a. I'm sure clerical workers in the Public Sector would love that money. You can pick arguments to suit your opinion very easily.

The Government brought in a high minimum wage which the employers are not happy with. Other than that there is very little they can do about private sector pay. That's what unions are for and they where happy with the social partnership deal.

It's only in the last 5 years that a serious capital expenditure program has occurred. The economy and taxes needed to be improved first to get the finances to meet this. Again look at the motorways/dual carriageways that are being built. Very little was spent on rail and road by successive governments. You can't expect this to be rectified in 5 years.

On ministerial responsibility, same as it ever was.FG/Lab as guilty of this as FF. Wasn't it Labour who brought in all the personal advisors.

You still haven't suggested how a Rainbow Govt. is going to miracously improve law and order, roads, rail and private sector pay. It's easier to look at the problems and not see the real improvements that are happening. Change for changes sake isn't a good reason for a new Government

ballooba

Seanies32 wrote:

How did the Guards resolve it outside the system. Did he repay you for the damage done?

Yes. I got my money. He never got charged though. Very difficult to argue with the Garda when they are getting you €1,600.

Seanies32 wrote:

Saying public servants earn 35-40% more than Private sector workers is a generalisation.

On average they do. That means job for job. Their terms and conditions are a lot more favourable too. Fine Gael will outline proposals for public sector reform at the weekend. This is one of my main election issues.

Seanies32 wrote:

The Government brought in a high minimum wage which the employers are not happy with.

I'm not saying private sector wages should go up. Public sector wages are driving inflation. Public sector wages should be cut or frozen.

Seanies32 wrote:

It's only in the last 5 years that a serious capital expenditure program has occurred. The economy and taxes needed to be improved first to get the finances to meet this. Again look at the motorways/dual carriageways that are being built. Very little was spent on rail and road by successive governments. You can't expect this to be rectified in 5 years.

20 years actually. The boom in the economy is over. A Bloomberg report yesterday was particularly interesting, export growth is currently at 1.7% down from 6.6% two years ago. You can't have an economic boom based on an internal property market.

Our whole economy is based on us borrowing money from foreign banks to buy and sell houses to each other. The whole economy at the moment is based on personal debt. Fianna Fail squandered the boom.

Seanies32 wrote:

You still haven't suggested how a Rainbow Govt. is going to miracously improve law and order, roads, rail and private sector pay.

You seriously want me to outline the policies of three parties on all of those topics in this thread. I would suggest you go read them yourself.

Also, your comments regarding public/private sector pay would suggest that you are not that well informed on the issues. If that's the case then a read of the policies from all the parties might be an idea.

A few policies on the topics you mention above.

Transport:
- Greens : Proper rail network, Luas for regional cities.
- Labour : Integrated ticketing, single flat rate fare for Dublin Bus.
- Fine Gael : Bus Competition, Feeder Buses for Rail, Park & Ride, No New Private Tolls, Proper Traffic Corps

Public Sector Reform:
- Joint Fine Gael / Labour proposal on Dail Reform
- Fine Gael proposals on Public Sector reform to be announced this weekend.

Law and Order
- Labour & Fine Gael: Effective community policing, Reform of Garda Training, Continuous learning for Gardai, Focus on best practice management, improved accountability and transparency, proper equipment for Gardai.
- Fine Gael: Sentencing reform, New bail act, Anti-Social Behaviour fund including diversion for young people (sports, activities).
- Fine Gael: Drunk tanks, High Intensity Training model for Young Offenders Institutions.

www.finegael.ie
www.labour.ie
www.greenparty.ie

Dr Galen

ballooba wrote:

On average they do. That means job for job. Their terms and conditions are a lot more favourable too. Fine Gael will outline proposals for public sector reform at the weekend. This is one of my main election issues.

I'm not saying private sector wages should go up. Public sector wages are driving inflation. Public sector wages should be cut or frozen.

a lot of what u say i agree with. and in essence i agree with Public Sector reform too. I'll be very interested in what FG propose at the weekend. I'd like to see proper investigation into individual public sector departments and agencies, not as you suggest, complete across the board freezing or cutting of wages.

i work in the public sector and feel i don't get enough for what i do. but i have a mate who also works in the dept of xxxx behind a desk. he gets far too much for what he does and his level of responsibility. admits this himself. can you see my point here

ballooba

ballooba wrote:

20 years actually. The boom in the economy is over. A Bloomberg report yesterday was particularly interesting, export growth is currently at 1.7% down from 6.6% two years ago. You can't have an economic boom based on an internal property market.

Rofl.
You cant have exponential growth for ever and ever either,it has to level off somewhere.
You need money sloshing about in an economy to keep it going and theres no shortage of it from what I can see at the tills in B and Q or the car show rooms.
It doesn't matter a fiddle what country the borrowing to fund the cash flow comes from as long as the wages are there to fund the repayments and by and large they are.

Our whole economy is based on us borrowing money from foreign banks to buy and sell houses to each other. The whole economy at the moment is based on personal debt. Fianna Fail squandered the boom.

Rofl You don't know how like Eamon develara you are sounding there.

I know you are trying to make a point that your lads would have done it better-maybe they would-who knows but hey labouring the point to beyond reason isn't good.
Seán has a fair point regarding how its only in recent years that this economy has been able to increasingly fund it's own infrastructure.
It has had to catch up.I can drive 90 miles now to the north or the west from where I live and 84miles of that will be on dual carriageway/motorway.Most of that was done in recent years and has cost hundreds of millions.
At the risk of tickling your Fine Gael underarm by flashing the FF 2002 slogan at you but It is fair to suggest now that there was a lot done and that there is a lot more to do.

By the way I notice you didn't deal with his point regarding the last rainbow administrations sea of expensive advisors.
I've seen a lot of elections come and go and voted for all the parties in my lifetime and I can tell you one thing,I've concluded that my signiture just about sums up the only reason they are worth changing-because it's healthy to do so every once and a while.It keeps them on their toes.

I'm under no illusion that FG will avoid waste and mistakes.It's easy to say that they will.They won't.They'll probably do a better job in some areas and worse in others and end up with a comparable over all result.

ballooba

nurse_baz wrote:

i work in the public sector and feel i don't get enough for what i do. but i have a mate who also works in the dept of xxxx behind a desk. he gets far too much for what he does and his level of responsibility. admits this himself. can you see my point here

There was an interesting letter in the Irish Independent yesterday on the proportion of health spend which goes on Administration. In Ireland it is currently at 44%, according to the letter, and in the UK it is just under 6%.

I wouldn't comment on nurses pay. I have seen the work they do and honestly feel they are underappreciated.

skearon

ballooba wrote:

There was an interesting letter in the Irish Independent yesterday on the proportion of health spend which goes on Administration. In Ireland it is currently at 44%, according to the letter, and in the UK it is just under 6%.

And you believe everything you read in the papers ? :-)

It depends on the defination of administration.

It is estimated that 64% of health services personnel formally classified as "management / administrative" are involved in direct service provision to the public. A report of the commission on financial management and control systems concluded that 10 out of every 11 additional employees recruited since 1997 are engaged in duties of direct service to patients and the public.

In the Irish Healthcare workforce there are 12.2 nurses per 1,000. In Canada that figure is seven, across the EU it is approximately 8.5 and in the UK it is eight. We actually have a lot of nurses in the health care system.

ballooba

Tristrame wrote:

You cant have exponential growth for ever and ever either,it has to level off somewhere.

The same article was singing the praises of the economy because we have 6% growth. If the growth in the economy is not coming from export markets then it is purely internal. The article was referring to a two-year slide in export growth, not a blip.

Most of the wages you speak of are coming from Property and Civil Service jobs. The former is beind funded by personal debt. The latter is funded to a large extent by Stamp Duty Receipts which are also funded by personal debt.

Already we are seeing people with negative equity having their houses repossessed. The market has slowed down in Ireland according to estate agents and mortgage lenders (friends working in the industry). Sub-prime lending has gone belly up in the states. Together with ECB interest rate hikes that means the whole mortgage situation is bunched.

Tristrame wrote:

Rofl You don't know how like Eamon develara you are sounding there.

Maybe it was a bit dramatic. That's my take on the FF spin anyway.

Tristrame wrote:

At the risk of tickling your Fine Gael underarm by flashing the FF 2002 slogan at you but It is fair to suggest now that there was a lot done and that there is a lot more to do.

Noel Dempey ran posters in Navan in 2002 bearing that slogan and a picture of a train. They didn't achieve the goals set out in the last NDP. All that stuff now goes into the new NDP, which again they won't achieve.

Tristrame wrote:

By the way I notice you didn't deal with his point regarding the last rainbow administrations sea of expensive advisors.

I was quite young during the term of the last government and I do remember the contraversy around this. I'm not completely au fait with it so I will have to go and read up a bit.

Tristrame wrote:

I've seen a lot of elections come and go and voted for all the parties in my lifetime and I can tell you one thing,I've concluded that my signiture just about sums up the only reason they are worth changing-because it's healthy to do so every once and a while. It keeps them on their toes.

The only reason I orignially took an interest in politics was because I was disillusioned with the current government. I joined Fine Gael because they are the largest opposition party and fit closely with my ideals.

The Progressive Democrats are probably a closer fit but given that they have been in league with Fianna Fail for ten years and McDowell is their leader I joined Fine Gael.

Dr Galen

skearon wrote:

And you believe everything you read in the papers ? :-)

It depends on the defination of administration.

It is estimated that 64% of health services personnel formally classified as "management / administrative" are involved in direct service provision to the public. A report of the commission on financial management and control systems concluded that 10 out of every 11 additional employees recruited since 1997 are engaged in duties of direct service to patients and the public.

In the Irish Healthcare workforce there are 12.2 nurses per 1,000. In Canada that figure is seven, across the EU it is approximately 8.5 and in the UK it is eight. We actually have a lot of nurses in the health care system.

this report came direct from the HSE, and certainly seems to say that there is a growing admin culture in this countries health system.

i certainly don't want to hijack thi sthread regarding this issue, but if we honestly have that many more nurses where do we have a situation where there appears to chronic lack of nurses on the wards looking after the patients ( and for tht mtter doctors/physions and esp OT's) and so many managers/admin staff. the optimum number for nurse to patient ratio is 1:4, that is 1 nurse for every 4 patients in the general hospital setting. any less than this and morbibity numbers go up. it is a regular ocurance for the irish ratio to be 1:6 or 1:8. within this thred thats all i'd say on the matter

ballooba

skearon wrote:

And you believe everything you read in the papers ? :-)

The letter was from a nurse. Not written by a journalist.

ballooba

ballooba wrote:

Already we are seeing people with negative equity having their houses repossessed. The market has slowed down in Ireland according to estate agents and mortgage lenders (friends working in the industry). Sub-prime lending has gone belly up in the states. Together with ECB interest rate hikes that means the whole mortgage situation is bunched.

[Gift Grub Marian Finnucane voice to Enda Kenny (croaky-they make her out to smoke an awfull awfull lot)]

And Hooooooooooooooooooooooow are you going to fix that ?

[/end Marian voice]

OT but I found "enda Vs Bertie" on my ipod the other day( I must have put it on a year or more ago and never listened to it ) and laughed out loud a lot. Gift grub ftw

ballooba

Tristrame wrote:

And Hooooooooooooooooooooooow are you going to fix that ?

Given that Fianna Fail get most of their funding from the builders in the tent at the Galway Races it was always in their interest to have a property based boom. Their funding is safe while the people are weighed down with personal debt.

I don't believe Fianna Fail have a plan in the event of a downturn. This has been happening for years now where an increasing amount of our GDP was based on the property market. They are still telling us that everything is fine. The front page of the Irish Times today would beg to differ as would the front page of the Indo a few days back.

I'm not sure what the Fine Gael / Labour / Green plan in the event of a downturn would be. At least they recognise the possibility though.

In terms of how it could have been avoided. Fianna Fail should have been giving proper support to indigenous firms over the last 10 years or so while the economy was doing well. We should have been building our own multinationals in areas such as technology, renewables and organic foods. We obviously have the talent here.

ballooba

ballooba wrote:

In terms of how it could have been avoided. Fianna Fail should have been giving proper support to indigenous firms over the last 10 years or so while the economy was doing well. We should have been building our own multinationals in areas such as technology, renewables and organic foods. We obviously have the talent here.

We're a small island Balooba,I don't share your confidence that we can tax subsidise indigenous industry in those areas to compete with world wide corporations.I'm sure we could do some(and have done) but not in the quantity to make a difference.It looks to me like a Ginormous task.

By the way I think a lot of this thread could go into the policies thread.
I'll move some posts there later if I have time.

ballooba

Tristrame wrote:

We're a small island Balooba,I don't share your confidence that we can tax subsidise indigenous industry in those areas to compete with world wide corporations.

I'm not talking about subsidies necessarily. I have said it here before, the government is actually impeding companies like Airtricity in order to protect the state monopoly at ESB.

I'm not sure why they are holding back BioFuels firms, but it is a complete nightmare to set one of these up here. I can supply newspaper articles and letters to support that view. The government would rather subsidise imported fuel than support indigenous producers or even allow them do business.

Fine Gael, hopefully with the help of Brody Sweeney when he is elected, want to establish a Green Ireland food brand. He hopes to build a brand and a profile for Irish foods abroad so that they can command a premium price. Ireland has a green repuation, so why not capitalise on it. There may be a case for renaming Bord Bia, Irish language names may be great for patriotism but they are not so good for marketing overseas.

Hopefully under the Green Ireland brand we can get a thriving Organics sector going too.

Múinteoir

ballooba wrote:

Fine Gael, hopefully with the help of Brody Sweeney when he is elected, want to establish a Green Ireland food brand. He hopes to build a brand and a profile for Irish foods abroad so that they can command a premium price. Ireland has a green repuation, so why not capitalise on it. There may be a case for renaming Bord Bia, Irish language names may be great for patriotism but they are not so good for marketing overseas.

Hopefully under the Green Ireland brand we can get a thriving Organics sector going too.

Hmm, I wonder where FG got that policy from?