Mighty Fine Pickin' ...

TOm Kelly

This is quality tipping by any standards ...


Ebaziyan - 40/1

Voy Pour Es - 5/1

Sublimity - 14/1

Massinis Maguire - 20/1 - and forecast - Tidal Bay second 10/1

Cheeky Lady -- placed 25/1

http://www.expertbettingadvice.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=26164.0

kaizersoze123

Some excellent tipping there, I'll be keeping an eye out for his selections today.

shrapnel222

can someone post today's selection when it comes up, as i can't access that website from work

comewatmay

great tips alright,you know if there is any for today

IrishMike

Unreal run of tips on that site
Followed a few of his each ways for today and keeping the fingers crossed
Thanks for the share tom, worth a read

IrishMike

shrapnel222 wrote:

can someone post today's selection when it comes up, as i can't access that website from work

Still two days of this glorious Festival of National Hunt Racing to go but so far results have been pretty good for me so far and here's hoping that Day 3 can be just as good as the first two days have been.

Amazingly, I have had the winner of races 1&3 on both dates with placed horses in race 5 on both dates as well..I think the moral here is that if I have the winner of the first then try laying off the selection in the second as it obviously has no chance..

Jewson Handicap Chase

I was emailed a tip for the favourite here King Revo earlier in the week but missed all the prices on it so again I will let it go without having any money on it.

Purely from a point of handicapping using Regal Heights as a guide, there is a case for saying that Ferdy Murphy's L'Antartique has the beating of King Revo.He beat Regal Heights one length at Bangor giving that rival 3lbs, which was the same weight King Revo was giving Regal Heights when being beaten by the McCain runner over 2m at Newcastle on his penultamite run by 2 and a half lengths.

Personally, with the Murphy stable in fine form now(50/1 winner Joe's edge on the first day and Aces Four was in the process of running a massive race in the Royal & Sun Alliance Chase yesterday), and the horse finally gets the big field/better ground he needs in my opinion which he hasn't had since going over fences I would rather back him each way at 25/1(corals) than a favourite who personally I don't know whether he will stay the trip or not.

0.5pt e/w L'Antartique
Ryanair Chase

This has to be one of my Bets of the Week. Other then perhaps favourite Monet's Garden who could still be anything (Personally I think he may be better at shorter trips) the rest of these all look relatively exposed.

Our Vic emptied alarmingly last time out behind Exotic Dancer over C&D and I wonder if he will still be as effective today(even though he runs well over the track), Taranis's two chase races this season have not shown that he is a winner waiting to happen over fences and I always think Paul Nicholls has the tendency to overhype his chasers so I can't him at such short odds.Racing Demon HAS to go Right handed to be seen at his most effective(jumped out to its right both times he has raced here) and is better watched until perhaps Sandown's end of season Betfred meeting when he will get his conditions and the same applies to Henry Daly's Billyvoddan.Hi Cloy was sixth in this last season and doesn't look any better a horse since then so he can be overlooked.

I got my fingers burned opposing Thisthatandtother in this two years ago when he did my fancy Fondmort right on the line that day, as I though he needed a flatter track and that the track wouldn't suit!.Today, he just looks a bit long in the tooth for this and can be opposed on those grounds.Too Forward is best in small fields but his last two wins have come on Soft and Heavy ground and I am not sure he will handle conditions this quick.

You will notice that I have missed one horse off there and it is the horse that for me is just screaming to be bet.The horse in question is Nicky Henderson's Crozan at 25/1.Yep, that's right the horse who's form reads:4th of 5(beaten 28lengths), P, P,2nd and P...Three pulled up efforts, one completion where he was beaten out of sight and a 2nd beaten a short head would normally hardly insipre confidence in a horse's ability to run well at the biggest meeting of the season.However, that 2nd was on his seasonal reappearence when just touched off by Tamarinbleu at Ascot.The only other time he has completed the course in the UK came also on his seasonal reappearence when winning a Novice Chase over the C&D beating Lough Derg(runs in today's World Hurdle but more of him in a minute) and some horse called Exotic Dancer(whatever happened to him..Oh that's right, he's 2nd favourite for this year's Gold Cup!)..Rested for 75 days since his latest poor run,and with first time blinkers on at the jockey's urgings, I see this as being a typical Nicky Henderson plan to come here after such a rest period having him at the top of his game and the price is massive in my opinion.

2pt e/w Crozan


World Hurdle

For most of the winter their have been major arguments in my family as my brother is firmly in the Black Jack Ketchum camp whereas I am strongly in favour of Howard Johnson's Inglis Drever who surely has to be the value at 5/1(William Hills) to regain his crown.

He missed the chance to claim his crown last season after a fall at Chepstow over Christmas but has returned better than ever again this season with a win at Newbury and a second in Blazing Bailey's race over this track six weeks ago.Now we hear all about track and draw biases all summer long on the level but I am of the opinion that Inglis Drever was the victim of having to get into a protracted battle with BJK and Flight Leader on the stands side whilst Blazing Bailey got a "solo" on the outside of the track.Today's better pace shall suit and don't be worried if Paddy Brennan is pushing and shoving him with about two to go as he is a lazy big so -and so(bit like myself really) and takes time to get himself wound up into a challenge position at the business end of the race.

2pt win Inglis Drever

Racing Post Plate

This looks a tricky race to work out and keeping stakes small on one horse only at a massive price in the shape of Bold Bishop at 50/1(Ladbrokes).

People may think I am mad putting up a horse who is due to go down 5lbs in the weights in future handicaps but here's my logic.If he wins out the park then his rating is set to take a mssive hike and he couldnt win anyway for most of next season, but the owner will have a £30K first prize in their pocket,and if he wins in a close finish then he is most likely only going to get put up three or four pounds as the handicapper is likely to think that this result is as good as he is therefore let's not overburden his chances for the upcoming races.

He was staying on in last season's Sun Alliance when he had to swerve to avoid a faller and unseated his jockey.He was handicapped out of it early in the season but with ground coming in his favour, trip fine and cheekpieces on for the first time(Ran fourth in the Champion Bumper behind Liberman in first time blinkers) he could well be the answer to a tricky looking handicap.

0.5pt e/w Bold Bishop

National Hunt Chase

A 4m Novice Chase is just what punters want after nearly three days of hard punting, drinking and studying,especially with Amatuer riders....

However, there are two that interest me for differing reasons.

Jonjo O'Neill usually does well in this and I think it is significant that he has booked JT McNamara for Garde Champetere and steps him up in trip as well massively.At one time, the most expensive horse in training sold at auction when JP bought him from the Million In Mind guys three seasons ago(after he had beaten Monet's Garden in an Aintree Novice hurdle event) you could say that his owner hasn't had any value for money out of him.However, the stable's record, jockey booking(rode Rhith Dubh to success in this race for the stable in 2002) would lead me to believe that like Crozan earlier, this has been the plan all season for this horse and I expect him to be in the places at the very least so at 14/1 he rates a nice each way bet.

I will take pelters for putting the next one up but at 100/1 why is Coleman Sweeney riding Countess Trifaldi . He is one of the better Irish amateur jockeys(won a Foxhunters and finished 2nd in another) but yet appears to be riding a no-hoper.On nothing more than jockey bookings, this one catches my eye and I have to have something on her just in case..

0.5pt e/w Garde Champetre
0.5pt e/w Countess Trifaldi

Pertemps handicap Hurdle


I once heard a prominent racing journalist describe this race as having one trend running through it in that all the winners were "not off" in their qualifiers and if that is the case then discard any runner who won last time out as they have had their day in the sun.

The two who interest me here are the Jonjo O'Neill trained Refinement and Ostafanni who are 16/1 and 33/1 respectively and from an each way perspective are the value in the race.

Refinement held an entry in the World Hurdle up until recently and will right at home in this big field and thankfully given Millenium Royal and Rhinestone Cowboy stay in, she is off a nice racing weight.She prefers big fields where they go a good gallop and has that touch of class about her as well,having finished in the frame in a Festival Bumper and Royal and Sun Alliance Novice Hurdle .

Ostafanni is a bit more of a shot in the dark but Graeme Lee off 10-00 on a horse who prefers good ground is what attracts me to it's chances.Kept purposely for the race given the terrible ground we have had over the winter,should be fresher than most and has sqeak of making the frame here at massive odds.

0.5pt e/w Refinement
0.5pt e/w Ostafanni


Starting Bank(at start of Day 2):126.50pts
New bank(after end of Day 2):164.50pts
Stakes today:10pts

Current Bank:154.50pts

Best of luck with

Taken from here
http://www.expertbettingadvice.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=26164.75

shrapnel222

thanks mike

interesting choices

eirebhoy

Crozan is the interesting one there giving he's betting high stakes at such high odds...

seand333

He seems to know his stuff. think i'll take a chance on Crozan

PokerChild

Think I'll have a punt on one or two of those selection. An e/w win at those odds would be sweet.

Old_-_School

Yeah, particularly Countess Trifaldi at 360/1!

eirebhoy

Wow...

CiaranC

l'antartique wins

This guy is having a hell of a run

kaizersoze123

GET IN!! 5 ew

bohsman

No aftertiming here but thanks for posting this. Ill put a few quid on his next pick. meh everyone else is doing it, 29s on betfair.

PokerChild

hahahahahha

L'Antartique go on my son!!!!!

10* EW @ 20/1



Wooohoooo!


*I is not rich

marathonic

rite that's it... time to put the life savings on Crozan...

that's 7.50 e/w after days 1 & 2 at Cheltenham...

boy_wonder

Legend!!

That for finding OP.

Had him in a €1 e/w yankee. 1 down 3 to go:

Remaining three: Crozan 20/1 Inglis Drever 9/2 Refinement 18/1

Fingers crossed and thanks again

rcs

RAGE!!! Saw this thread this morning & said I'd pick one of his e.w. tips... I picked Crozan though!

How does this lad do it... Fair play to him.. That is some going over the first 3 days...

Come on Crozan!

eirebhoy

He has picked the winner in each of the 3 first races. A 40/1, 20/1 and 20/1.

Ste05

Excellent, I backed all his picks this morning, I'm Freerolling for the rest of the day now woohoo.

ianmc38

I had him from a different source. I also had one or 2 others that he's picked. Think i'll stick a few quid on the rest of his selections now too!

eirebhoy

Ste05 wrote:

Excellent, I backed all his picks this morning, I'm Freerolling for the rest of the day now woohoo.

If you used the same stakes as him you've got all your money back now in the first race and can only make a profit.

Ste05

eirebhoy wrote:

If you used the same stakes as him you've got all your money back now in the first race and can only make a profit.

I used his ratios, I dropped it slightly for Crozan, but other than that, followed him exactly, I'm up now already for the day .

threebeards

F**k me!! After seeing this thread this morning I back L'Antartique e/w but I doubled it with Bold Bishop e/w. I'll be a happy man if it comes in - €5 e/w. I think it'll pay about €4,500 :eek: fingers, toes and everything else crossed

cianboy

legend! come on l'antartique!

put 25 e/w!! more than recouped last few days losses,

come on crozan

Juan Pablo

Nice one! After reading this thread I went €10 ew on L'Antartique, Crozan and Bold Bishop

eirebhoy

How good was Crozan looking? He jumped about 2 feet over the previous fence before he fell.

kaizersoze123

Looked like there was plenty in the tank...disaster

PokerChild

awh. I was listen to Crozan on the net.... any one care to enlighten me as to what happened? He just went over?!?!?!

johnnysmurfman

Just went over. He seemed to be really enjoying himself too, I backed him a good few times, shame.

eirebhoy

PokerChild wrote:

awh. I was listen to Crozan on the net.... any one care to enlighten me as to what happened? He just went over?!?!?!

Looking excellent. Can't believe he fell.

squire1

Great heads up Tom Kelly. Broke even for today on the first. Pity about the second. Lets hope another one comes in today.:D

WoooHooo. Go on my son. Two winners. Inglis Drever.

Vamos

GET IN!!! Thread of the century.

kaizersoze123

This tipster is a LEGEND

CiaranC

boooooooooooooooooom

00dyel

going to be backing all his choices for tommorows racing- missed them this morning and so am watching the racing with no bets on.

machalla

Only picked up on it but just had the first and second in that race. Not too much on them but got enough back to put a smile on my face

Ste05

This is incredible, get in my son!!!

ErinGoBrath

If I was a woman I'd bare this mans kids...

Morgans

Simply phenomenal.

ianmc38

So sweet. Backed all his tips after seeing this thread!

pyure

just found this thread, backed all his choices for the last three - hopefully his exceptional form will continue

shrapnel222

this guy is on a roll!!!

this is great stuff!!!

kaizersoze123

pyure wrote:

just found this thread, backed all his choices for the last three - hopefully his exceptional form will continue

I wouldnt count on it, by his own reckoning, the last 3 races are pretty much a lottery. But I'm hopeful

CiaranC

Time to wade into a 40-1 shot in a 17 fence, 24 runner handicap at cheltenham with form UU-P30

lol

cianboy

unbelievable, its like he the guy in back to the future with the racing guide from the future!

amazing stuff

keep it up lad!

kaizersoze123

CiaranC wrote:

Time to wade into a 40-1 shot in a 17 fence, 24 runner handicap at cheltenham with form UU-P30

lol

Chucky the tree

CiaranC wrote:

Time to wade into a 40-1 shot in a 17 fence, 24 runner handicap at cheltenham with form UU-P30

lol

I am on the phone to Ocean finance already looking for a loan to put it all on.

smash

so, who's looking good for the 4.00 then? I have Vodka Blue...

threebeards

Lol, us Boardsies must be piling on to Bold Bishop, into 33-1 now on PP