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Cheltenham Festival Selections

  • 06-03-2007 8:37am
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,286 ✭✭✭✭


    ok folks only one week to go :eek: who do we think is going to win???

    i have it narrowed down to.....

    Supreme Novices - Hide The Evidence/Granit Jack/Osana/Catch Me..no clue:D

    Arkle - Lennon/Buena Vista

    Champion Hurdle - Straw Bear/Detroit City

    Ballymore Properties - Aran Concerto

    Sunalliance Chase - Denman

    Champion Chase - Well Chief

    Champion Bumper - Fiveforthree/Berings Express

    Ryanair - Taranis

    World Hurdle - Inglis Drever

    Triumph - Degas Art

    Brit Insurance - Wichita Lineman

    Gold Cup - Kauto Star


    also from a laying point i think Fair Along is the lay of the meeting. hes been on the go non stop since July. the Arkle will be his 10th run since then. plus all this County Hurdle talk out of Hobbs is very off putting. i cant see him burning off this field in front all the way. maximum lay for me.

    i also think Hardy Eustace, Cailin Alainn and Newmill are all lays.

    I havent looked through the handicaps in any detail yet but the ones that stand out at the moment are New Field in whatever he runs in (the Grand Annual entry being the one that interests me most...) and Le Duc in the Cross Country who has a nice pull at the weights with Spot Thedifference and Heads Onthe Ground and has been put away since then.


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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Morgans


    i cant see why people are so quick to oppose Amaretto Rose in the opener. I noted she was some people's bismarks in another thread, and four horses mentioned ahead of her here. She has the best form on all handicapper's ratings. The form of her Ascot win is simply bombproof. On top of being the best horse in the race, she will be getting 7lbs from most of the field. The one doubt was how she would act on firm/good ground. The fact that the ground is turning up the way it is only improves her chance.

    The other horse who has the best form in her race but is receiving the 7lbs sex allowance in Lounaos.

    There are reasons why these mares can get beaten. However, the arguments put up for their defeat so far are to my mind illogical. And are more like Tom Segal's "I have a hunch she will get beaten". Not good enough for me. There are not certainties in racing, but any punter worth their salt cannot turn their noses up at the best horses in the field, getting weight, on ground they are proven on.


    For now: with the ground assumed to be soft or worse
    Supreme - Amaretto Rose (NAP)
    Arkle - My Way De Solzen - outsider Young Desperado
    Champion Hurdle - Brave Inca - ew Sublmity
    SAH - Aran Concerto ew Duc De Regniere
    SAC - Cailin Alainn ew Alexander Taipan
    QM - Nickname
    Ryanair - Our Vic ew Too Forward
    World Hurdle - Kasbah Bliss ew United
    Triumph - Lounaos
    Brit INsurance - Black Harry
    Gold Cup - Kauto Star ew Nil Desperandum
    Foxhunters - Whyso Mayo

    Three bankers
    Amaretto Rose
    Lounaos
    Whyso Mayo


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,757 ✭✭✭masterK


    At this moment in time expecting testing conditions my picks are:

    Gold Cup: State of Play (still an each way price, we must remember after 4 days racing on soft or heavy ground the course is probably going to be in an awful state come the Gold cup, State of Play will stay and will go on the ground, I can see it being a real slog).

    Champion Hurdle: Brave Inca

    World Hurdle: Blazing Bailey (had the form in the book when beating Ingles Drever & BJK, will love soft ground)

    Queen Mother: Well Chief (if there's a real superstar at this years festival I think it's Well Chief, ground is a minor worry).

    Foxhunters - Whyso Mayo

    Truimph - Duty ew


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Morgans


    we must remember after 4 days racing on soft or heavy ground the course is probably going to be in an awful state come the Gold cup

    Two different courses at Cheltenham. If the expected weather materialises it will be messy, but the Gold Cup course wont have four full days of racings on it.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,230 ✭✭✭scojones


    Supreme - Amaretto Rose
    Arkle - Fair Along - Buena Vista ew
    Champion Hurdle - Hardy Eustace
    Juvenile - Financial Reward / My Petra
    SAC - Boychuk / Openide
    QM - Nickname
    Ryanair - Taranis
    World Hurdle - United
    Triumph - Lounaos
    Brit INsurance - Massinis Maguire
    Gold Cup - Exotic Dancer / State of Play (ew)
    Foxhunters - Whyso Mayo
    Coral - New Field / Farmer Brown

    No doubt these selections may change closer to the festival.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,757 ✭✭✭masterK


    County Hurdle: Fair Along looks thrown in off 10-6, the 9/1 no runner no bet looks an appealing price. I've heard he will almost certainly run in this race regardless of how he gets along in the Arkle. (A large proportion of the field will be racing from out of the handicap if Desert Quest stays in.)


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,937 ✭✭✭fade2black


    My confidence in Hardy Eustace is now starting to dwindle.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    5 day weather forecast is optimistic apart from heavy showers on friday.

    Supreme: If the ground was good de soto would be a confident ew pick. as it is its a minefireld, I'm against amaretto rose and de valira. Probably a no bet race for me.

    Arkle: There is a long line of horses who needed 2m 4+ who were run off their feet in this race so I can't have MWDS or don't push it, in any case their value is long gone. I wouldn't lay fair along and if he continues to drift I might back it.

    Champion Hurdle: Only an eejit would sat detroit city has no chance but I reckon he's poor value. I may end up with egg on my face but I reckon straw bear and sublimity have no chance and are definately poor value at their current prices. Unoriginal I know but its between the front 3 in the betting.

    WillHill: I have backed new alco at 14s and hope the ground isn't too bad as it'll be tough to carry 11st+ on heavy. If the grand national really is the plan for far from trouble i'd avoid him in this race and he's 3lbs worse than in ireland. It looked all week like little bric wouldn't run but there's plenty on the lay side now and he must be a danger if lining up.

    Cross Country: As much as I admire the horse i can't back a 14 yr old spotthedifference. davy russell put star performance up as his bet of the meeting in the stillorgan park preview so he'll do for me on the basis I haven't a clue what else to back!

    Fred Winter: Your guess is as good as mine. Pity majestic concorde doesn't run as it would most certainly be the token DK Weld (failed) gamble of the meeting,

    Ballymore: Aran concerto is a machine and will win this. The comparisons with sweet wake are ludicrous. Sweet wake had beaten nothing this time last year where as AC has beaten a 4 time bumper winner in leading run, a triple bumper winner and grade 3 hurdle winner in footy fact and a multiple garded hurdle winner in kazal. Actually he hasn't beaten then, he's made a holy show of them. I like my turn now at a big price ew (20s WAR).

    RSA Chase: DEnman has an outstanding chance but at this stage it looks like he could easily go off odds on which is too short in my book. Cailin Alainn and dom d'orgeval still represent ew value as I can see this race cutting up badly.

    Champion Chase: If the ground is decent I like newmill in this race. Possibly the most under rated horse in training. Won last year in a similar fashion to azertyioup in '04 beating horses of a similar calibre and stage of their careers but while azertyioup was proclaimed as the 2nd coming newmill was lucky. This horse has an unreal amount of speed and hopefully we won't have soft ground to blunt it. Well chief probably has the best form in the book but that was 2 yrs ago. He could bounce and his last run he received 10lbs from ashley brook who recorded his lowest raceform rating since his debut over fences on the all important second run back after a lay off. Well chief could easily win this but I'm a massive newmill fan and rate him the value.

    Coral Cup/Kim Muir: No real opinion.

    Bumper: Tony mullins said he'll be disppointed if aranleigh doesn't win the bumper in stillorgan. I'm against mad fish. usually a no bet race for me but was impressed by fourforthree who annihilated a well thought of Pat Fahy horse.

    Jewson: Gazza's girl is very well handicapped if she were to run but not sure if she will. Other than that no real view.

    Ryanair. This is the race for MWDS IMO, however mkt moves show he's likely to run in the arkle. I don't like monets garden and his record around cheltenham is 0-3. Can't have taranis.

    Stayers: Inglis drever is one of the bets of the meeting and I have a large ew at 6s. No matter what ground if BJK turns up he is a lay of biblical proportions.

    Mildmay of Flete/4 miler: No real opinion except that gungadu is will start far too short for a horses that needs to go right handed and throws in the oddd jumping error.

    Pertemps: I'd like to see cloudy bays run well here as he had a serious chance in 2005 but got injured.

    Triumph: I'm not sure if katchit has the class for this. Louanas gets the mares allowance and will be tough to beat. I'm against mountain who has acres to find on form with the likes of katchit, louanas and degas art. The last mentioned is my selection ew.

    Brit Insurance. More open than the betting suggests. Labelthou was a horse I fancied but nothing on the lay side suggests the world hurdle is the plan. Emma Lavelle is my lay of the meeting :p !!! Witchita line man will go off very short so possibly one of the irish horses, kazal or black harry ew against it. I certainly wouldn't put anyone off backing flight leader either who'd be far shorter if trained by a bigger name.

    Gold Cup: A poor renewal. I can't oppose kauto star and if he's anywhere near the 2.9 available on betfair now on the day i'll be getting the wheelbarrow.

    Foxhunters: Whyso mayo looks far classier than your average winner of this race but can throw in the odd jumping mistake. Ditto joe blake who'd be the bet at 20/1 if you could guarantee me an error free round.

    Grand annual: I've backed saintsaire at 7s and reckon he could start very short in which case i will hedge. I horse i think could run well at a massive price is bambi de l'orme who was second off a lower mark 2 yrs ago and ran a cracker behind saintsaire LTO and gets a nice weight swing.

    County Hurdle: Can't rememebr the last time I actually had a bet aon this race.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Morgans


    Joe blake wouldnt get up the hill in a horsebox. Twice he has come to the bottom of the hill swinging on the bridle only to stop to nothing from the last. ON heavy ground, no chance in my book. Nice horse though.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 203 ✭✭keepitquiet


    fade2black wrote:
    My confidence in Hardy Eustace is now starting to dwindle.
    :eek: lol


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,937 ✭✭✭fade2black


    Well Hardy is at his best when the ground is good. Although it was soft in the AIG and he performed with credit I think he'll need to be at his best to win the Champion.

    We'll have to wait and see. The ground has to be playing havoc with everyone's selections...not just because of their own choices, but so many more horses now come into it with the ground as it will be...


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,514 ✭✭✭decies


    fade2black wrote:
    Well Hardy is at his best when the ground is good. Although it was soft in the AIG and he performed with credit I think he'll need to be at his best to win the Champion.

    We'll have to wait and see. The ground has to be playing havoc with everyone's selections...not just because of their own choices, but so many more horses now come into it with the ground as it will be...
    Good god man are you saying my 5 euro bet on hardy would be wasted :eek:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 559 ✭✭✭knighted


    if the ground is testing its gonna be a bookmakers meeting -if anyone sitting on fancy prices i would lay them now for free bets -start the meeting off with a full bank and free bets thrown in -

    supreme -orbit o gold e/w

    gold cup-beef or salmon (soft ground -could be his year)
    lay kauto star

    triumph -degas art

    arkle -lennon

    champion hurdle -sublimity ew plus asian maze ew

    will hill -new alco

    champion chase big ew on justified -

    county hurdle -pedro bob (nap)

    few more to follow but these ones are ground dependant so i wont be going mad just yet


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,937 ✭✭✭fade2black


    Haha not at all. He'll run his usual good race, I just wish good were to appear somewhere in the going description.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 203 ✭✭keepitquiet


    celestial wave is now out and not through the ground but by injury. the bookies must be loving this rain...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,514 ✭✭✭decies


    Just saw on racing uk a hour ago cheltenham forecast more rain in the next day or two,but by next week temperatures will rise and it will be drier.
    Make that what you will :confused:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 203 ✭✭keepitquiet


    mdwexford wrote:
    ok folks only one week to go :eek: who do we think is going to win???



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,684 ✭✭✭scargill


    Paddy Power now has "Non-Runner No Bet" for Cheltenham for anyone interested in getting some early bets on.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 620 ✭✭✭BobbyD10


    I'll just tip one at this stage:

    Amaretto Rose in the Supreme. Tis Fav tho but i think the irish challenge may not be the best this yr.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,611 ✭✭✭Corben Dallas


    dont know if this is up already(need to go thru past threads later) Are we doing the Boards Cheltenham Challenge again this yr?
    (apart from the online thing mentioned?)

    anyone knows?
    wheres Crumbs when ya needs him? :p


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 100 ✭✭terry mac


    Any odds out there for the Wednesday bankers to all win. Aran Concerto/Denman/Well Chief treble. Pity they don't swap Wednesday and Tuesday!


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 620 ✭✭✭BobbyD10


    Any news on Da Valeria drifting markedly on betfair....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 324 ✭✭BangBeater


    colonel sanders... where do ya come up with all that?!! :eek:

    My nap shall be 'Don't Push It' in the Arkle and 'Exotic Dancer' in the Gold Cup. With McCoy on board and the way he ran out at Cheltenham last time, can't go against him. The horse does enjoy Prestbury Park.

    As for Kauto Star?? FFS, I'd be more confident seeing Beef or Salmon as favourite! :D

    Oh, and if Simon runs, in the race that i can't remember the name of right now... yeah, I'll be on him fo sho!

    'Aranleighin that bumper. That's another one, aye!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Morgans


    this of course is the same Kauto star that beat Beef or salmon by 17l earlier in the year...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,937 ✭✭✭fade2black


    I wouldn't rise to it Morgans. Probably best to avoid the forum for the next week...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 113 ✭✭midger


    SHIRLEY CASPER,my bet for the champion bumper,Philip Fenton thinks the world of her and reckons she's going to run a big race,regardless of the ground.She won 2 big bumpers back in december,including beating Mick the Man,and has been really well looked after since,in cracking form.Also,if anyone knows the ins and outs of bumper races,it has to be Fenton.Generally available @ 25's at present.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 324 ✭✭BangBeater


    Morgans wrote:
    this of course is the same Kauto star that beat Beef or salmon by 17l earlier in the year...

    & this race was where again....?!! :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Morgans


    BangBeater wrote:
    & this race was where again....?!! :D

    Or a racecourse where Beef or Salmon has a history of running well.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,757 ✭✭✭masterK


    Looks like we may all have to rethink our selections again with there being a distinct possibility of the going being Good to Soft, if not on Tuesday then certainly by Wednesday or Thursday.

    The course is drying all the time with not too much rain forecast:
    http://www.turftrax.com/html/courseconditions/conditions.asp?courseid=12

    I'd find it difficult to oppose Kauto Star on good to soft ground.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 342 ✭✭mickc


    And BJK will probably shorten again if it continues drying

    Maybe my accumulators are safe yet!!


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 182 ✭✭TOm Kelly


    nice writeup back there Colonel Sanders - I always read your posts ..

    Now ... about Cork All Star ... since people have started discussing Chelt 2007 ... I have never once, on any forum, seen anybody fancy him - despite the fact that he has been fav for ages (drifting in the last day or two) ... has won impressively at the course ...

    why is this ... is it because of the going? ... didn't beat much? ... or because Ruby rides something else ...

    if it was trained by Willie ... would it be 3/1?

    And a general q about going ... how do people know what a horse likes ... in this case is it assumed it would not suit because it has won on better going ..

    I often hear people saying - with some authority in their voice that a horse will not like a certain type of ground ... and yet, when I go and look up the form, I may see the horse has run 3 times on 3 different type of going ...

    as far as I am aware these experts have no more inside knowledge than me about this particular horse ... how did they arrive at their certain conclusion?

    I suppose breeding is one thing ... but they use that until the horse goes and proves them totally wrong and wins on ground his old man hated ...

    my father didn't drink or gamble ... and just look at me ....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 559 ✭✭✭knighted


    ever hear of a knee action?a horse can be a stone better on its prefered ground but can still win on unsuitable ground-take saddlers wells offspring for example better on soft but have won on good


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 182 ✭✭TOm Kelly


    yes knighted ... I realise the huge differences ground can make for some horses ...

    we used to have an ass that would absolutely fly through a bad bog with two full creels of turf ... whereas others were useless in a soft bog ...

    my only query was how some people seem to be able to say with certainty that a horse will / will not like certain going after a run or two - or maybe without even running ... don't worry about it ... let us get back to finding winners at C.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 301 ✭✭colsku


    Morgans wrote:
    i cant see why people are so quick to oppose Amaretto Rose in the opener. I noted she was some people's bismarks in another thread, and four horses mentioned ahead of her here. She has the best form on all handicapper's ratings. The form of her Ascot win is simply bombproof. On top of being the best horse in the race, she will be getting 7lbs from most of the field. The one doubt was how she would act on firm/good ground. The fact that the ground is turning up the way it is only improves her chance.


    I've followed you big on this as I've had a look at the trends and I know it's a cliche, but he really does tick all the right boxes.

    With Clopf and Catch Me possibly not running, and that drift for Dev on betfair earlier in the week saying there might be somthing amiss, we might be left with Hide The Evidence, Granit Jack and Osana as the main threats.

    The question still remains, is AR's form and ability better than the Irish Horses?

    And I'm also concerned about the fact he hasn't been involved in a fight for the line yet - we don't know how he'll react if pressed close home.

    Are you still confident he'll win? I've just taken NRNB 4.5 with BetFred

    Cheers bud and best of luck...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 64 ✭✭goodfela


    De Valira's last run was pretty poor IMO so i wouldn't back it regardless of what happens it's price on betfair. The only horse i can see challenging AR is Hide the Evidence as his form has been very good, especially beating Clopf in a Grade 1.

    I'm probably going to back AR because i think Hide TE has had a lot of racing and the mare gets the weight...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 559 ✭✭✭knighted


    goodfela wrote:
    De Valira's last run was pretty poor IMO so i wouldn't back it regardless of what happens it's price on betfair. The only horse i can see challenging AR is Hide the Evidence as his form has been very good, especially beating Clopf in a Grade 1.

    I'm probably going to back AR because i think Hide TE has had a lot of racing and the mare gets the weight...


    devaliras last run was consistant with his two previous wins -times are consistant with himself and the winner orbit o gold -people are dismissing orbit cause it flopped in the peirse -which is a handicap -if u look at his form and consistancy in his conditions races u will see he is an improver -plus he has won over 2m21/2f which is in his favour at cheltenham with the hill and ground -he beat christie roachs good thing by 35 lenghts -good thing then ran sixth to de valaria over two mile b 4 winning himself at 2m4f -this all points to orbit being an improver and thats why i dont think de valiras last run was poor -he just met an improving type who i believe will at least place in the supreme with pc on board -


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Morgans


    colsku wrote:
    I've followed you big on this as I've had a look at the trends and I know it's a cliche, but he really does tick all the right boxes.

    With Clopf and Catch Me possibly not running, and that drift for Dev on betfair earlier in the week saying there might be somthing amiss, we might be left with Hide The Evidence, Granit Jack and Osana as the main threats.

    The question still remains, is AR's form and ability better than the Irish Horses?

    And I'm also concerned about the fact he hasn't been involved in a fight for the line yet - we don't know how he'll react if pressed close home.

    Are you still confident he'll win? I've just taken NRNB 4.5 with BetFred

    Cheers bud and best of luck...


    I think the biggest danger to Amaretto Rose could be Hobbs Hill who is worth punting on whatever race he runs in. 33s and 40s available are too big. He was second to Amaretto Rose at Ascot, and then hosed up in a poor race at Folkestone. The Irish horses do not look up to much. It looks that Catch Me will now run in the race but to me look only average. HTE is dangerous but he is the best of what looks a below par bunch of Irish 2m novices.

    I'm still confident that SHE will win. The SHE is important as she gets 7lbs as a result.

    And opposing her because she hasnt had to battle is illogical. You simply dont know until she gets into a battle, but any horse that wins at Towcester has to run with hurting. That wouldnt be the worry. If she copes with the presumed very strong early pace, she is by far the most likely winner. Backing the horse with the best form, (especially when receiving weight) is a sound long term betting strategy. And note that the 7/2 is now gone and she is a best price 3/1. Some people have got 12s.....

    I might have a small saver on Hobbs Hill though.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 301 ✭✭colsku


    Morgans wrote:
    There are reasons why these mares can get beaten. However, the arguments put up for their defeat so far are to my mind illogical. And are more like Tom Segal's "I have a hunch she will get beaten". Not good enough for me.

    I received an email this morning from a fellow punter on Betfair called Hedgehunter.

    He had this to say about Amaretto Rose, and it's in line with what was annoying you earlier...

    AMARETTO ROSE - A mare on the up and mares have a reasonable record in the race. Her form has taken several boosts but I still have reservations about her and think the price is too short now. Travels strongly in her races and has done everything well so far but this is her toughest task to date. Sure to be involved but I think the winner may lie elsewhere.

    I'm praying he's wrong!

    I'll be onto Betfair today to have a few big priced savers on De Soto, Orbit O Gold and Tyson

    He seems to think HTE is the value bet, but I think he may have been raced a bit too much this year

    I think Osana is the big danger


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 559 ✭✭✭knighted


    one thing u should remember when backing mares is that this is there time of year to come into season and u cant time it -spring is the covering season -they get 7lb for a reason and if she as good as everyone thinks she should use it effectivly -there have been some outstanding mares running in the last 4 or 5 seasons so if u backed this one good luck -


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 301 ✭✭colsku


    They seem to be dropping out of the Supreme Novice like flies...

    It looks like Osana, Clopf and Catch me wont run.

    AR price dropping, 3/1 not even available on Betfair now.

    ----

    My Way De Solzen confirmed for the Arkle and is vying for the unhappy favourites tag with Fair Along...

    I'll be on MWDS as the winner of the Arkle has often been the horse which has jumped the best, and MWDS is clearly a more than capable jumer. BUT there's people saying she won't like the shorter 2m distance and will struggle with the pace unless it rains. What do yiz think?

    Buena Vista seems to popular with many, but price is drifting if anything....

    My only 2 bets of the first day!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 225 ✭✭00dyel


    Clopf might not run- where you get this information from?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,230 ✭✭✭scojones


    scojones wrote:
    Supreme - Amaretto Rose
    Arkle - Fair Along - Buena Vista ew
    Champion Hurdle - Hardy Eustace
    Juvenile - Financial Reward / My Petra
    SAC - Boychuk / Openide
    QM - Nickname
    Ryanair - Taranis
    World Hurdle - United
    Triumph - Lounaos
    Brit INsurance - Massinis Maguire
    Gold Cup - Exotic Dancer / State of Play (ew)
    Foxhunters - Whyso Mayo
    Coral - New Field / Farmer Brown

    No doubt these selections may change closer to the festival.


    Revised selections.

    Supreme - Amaretto Rose
    Arkle - Fair Along - Buena Vista e/w
    Champion Hurdle - Hardy Eustace
    Trophy - Commerical Flyer
    Sporting Index - Le Duc
    Ballymore Properties - Aran Concerto / Tidal Bay / Silverburn
    R&S Alliance - Denman
    QM - Well Chief / Nickname
    Coral - New Field / Farmer Brown - Powerstation e/w
    KM - Innox e/w
    Bumper - Cork All Star / Whatuthink
    Novice Chase - All Star / Boychuk e/w
    Ryanair - Our Vic / Racing Demon
    World Hurdle - Inglis Drever win - United e/w
    RP Plate - Madison Du Berlais
    National Hunt - Ballytrim / Helltornic
    Triumph - Lounaos / Mountain e/w
    Brit Insurance - Wichita Lineman / Flight Leader
    Gold Cup - Exotic Dancer
    Fox Hunter - Whyso Mayo - First Down Jets e/w
    Grand Annual - Ursis


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,937 ✭✭✭fade2black


    I think I'll just concentrate on Sedgefield and Huntingdon for the week....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Morgans


    clopf, osana, and Moon over Miami all out. I'm happy as a) i have the fav at 12s ante post and some of the likely opposition has been removed b) for all the lemmings that follow pricewise blind. Far be it for me to question the great man, but he hasnt half let himself down this NH season. Every punter can go through a bad patch, but its the lazy analysis that has been in evidence throughout the winter.

    For those wanting to back AR, I would recommend that you wait until near the off. I think bookies will want to get her, just as they did with Back In Front a couple of years ago, and my hunch is that she will go off 3/1.

    THe racing post ratings has her 9lbs clear of HTE. And she gets 7lbs on top of that.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 64 ✭✭goodfela


    Morgans wrote:
    THe racing post ratings has her 9lbs clear of HTE. And she gets 7lbs on top of that.

    I'm backing Amaretto Rose myself - one question regarding above quote.

    Are the racing post ratings not based on Amaretto's previous runs (when she was also getting weight) and therefore the allowance already factored into her rating or not?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,757 ✭✭✭masterK


    goodfela wrote:
    I'm backing Amaretto Rose myself - one question regarding above quote.

    Are the racing post ratings not based on Amaretto's previous runs (when she was also getting weight) and therefore the allowance already factored into her rating or not?

    I'd also understood them to be this way, I fairly sure all horses are rated to a base weight of 12 stone then any handicap/allowance deductions etc. added to the base value.

    It's very difficult to find anything to beat her, various form lines give her the measure of the English contingent while the Irish form has a lot of holes in it. I agree with Morgans that she'll drift on course, the Irish money will probably cause the Irish horses to shorten up causes AR to drift.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Morgans


    Sorry for the confusion. AR is rated two pounds better horse at levels from the second best horse Hide The Evidence, and gets 7lbs on top of that. RPRs are weights adjusted to 12-0. Timeform to 12-7 in NH. On flat both are adjusted to 10-0.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,714 ✭✭✭conZ


    What do ye think of Sweet Wake in the County on Friday?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    if any of the sweet wake hype last yr was justified he's well in. However i wouldn't back that horse in any race with stolen money. Twice failed to get up the hill.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 623 ✭✭✭hawker27


    friend of mine says snowy morning in the royal & sunalliance,what you guys think of this one.think its one of mullins that looks the most likely to win.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 606 ✭✭✭RedPeppers


    My bets for the week will be (not backing every race) though that could change :p

    Ill keep this short, everyone has their own take on things::


    Supreme Novices - Amaretto Rose (crucial pull in the weights)
    Champion Hurdle - Brave Inca (has one more big one left in him)
    Ballymore Properties - Aran Concerto (Banker of the meeting)
    R&S Alliance - Denman ( best horse by far in the race)
    Queen Mother - Well Chief (if he doesnt bounce will hose up)
    Kim Muir - Character Building e/w (is going up the walls in training apparently)
    World Hurdle - Inglis Drever (coming back to form of 2005)
    RP Plate - Madison Du Berlais e/w (Excellent winner lto)
    World Hurdle - Kasbah Bliss (will like the ground)
    Gold Cup - Beef Or Salmon e/w (weakest Gold Cup in long time, never had a better chance)
    Fox Hunter - Whyso Mayo - (Unbeaten this season - defending his title here)

    Character Building is a big tip I got today from John Quinn stable. Jock D O' Connor is very confident of landing the Kim Muir. Wasnt supposed to win lto but could hold it back. Has been aimed for this all year, will love the ground, currently 10s will shorten though. The word is out!


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