Model thread Feb/ early march-Is winter peeping back?

Thought I'd start a new thread in the absence of a relevant current one.

Snowbie -you can sticky this if you like.

Anyhow-Nice 12z GFS today albeit just the one run that has escaped the mild cage for now.

It shows a huge march of cold air, very cold air in its FI section marching down from the urals.

FI (fantasy island of course but hey!)

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn24017.png

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn2402.png

Now that would be ideal.

I'd imagine the temps would be less than that shown.

Not too late either given the cold pool that could potentially tap into.

Perhaps a trend may develop or the 18z will dash things back to a mild solution.
One to watch of course and also a gawk at the mighty ECM over the course of the next week would be good.

ciao for now

Beasterly Tristrame

Trogdor

Haven't really looked at the charts since that last disappointment:(:wink:. Had a quick look at the ensembles yesterday and didn't see anything outstanding but there does seem to be some support for this now even if it is minimal
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png
Maybe our annual late Feb/early March cold snap/spell:D

Hal1

Those GFS charts show a -10 over Eíre is that the DP? and its nice to see new threads being started on cold snaps pushing south of GL even if our hopes of some wintery stuffs have faded...;)

Snowbie

Thread Stuck,Been AFK due to flu symptons from my excursions to the mountains and confined to my quarters,next time ill stay in the jeep and stay warm:o

Our last chance at winter,maybe but be nice to go out with a beasterly.
Cold air pooling around there now for some time and has to break east eventually.Damn time frame against us +384 in FI

Snowbie

Hal1 wrote:

Those GFS charts show a -10 over Eíre is that the DP? and its nice to see new threads being started on cold snaps pushing south of GL even if our hopes of some wintery stuffs have faded...;)

There -10c 850mb temps=pretty low temps at sea level.

ninebeanrows

Hahaha i wouldnt worry about the temps there! I'd worry about the fact that it has a 0.00001% chance of happening:D

arctictree

Big change in the GFS this morning.

Strong easterly setting in from Tue/Wed - is that reliable timeframe?

Pity - I'm off to Florida on Saturday!!

A

Hard to say if thats reliable given that for whatever reason the UKMO can't even decide if the front that we have today is going to stall in England or not.

Ensembles are looking interesting-more support for cold.

We might get a 2 or 3 day wonder out of this yet with snow on high ground inland at night :rolleyes:

Really and truly, you need a sustained 5 day long advection of cold siberian origin air from the near continent to here to be in business properly and theres no sign of that yet.

Last time that happened on a scale to reach and sustain itself in Ireland was february '91 or january '87.

Incidently I saw photographs of Arklow in january 1987 that were amazing.
The avoca river at the quays was frozen with snow lying on it except at the very centre where the water was flowing with ice floating down it.
The sea was also frozen.
I'll try and get copies of those scanned.

Weathercheck what sort of 850 temps would you need today for that? -15? -20? I'll bet the snow got to portmarnock then,in fact I know it did big time.

darkman2

Looking very interesting atm. Lets hope its the real thing this time;)

ninebeanrows

Well in 1987 850's got down to around -18c ... yes -18c:eek:

Its the last throw of the dice for winter 06/07 but boy oh boy it could well be the throw of all throws:D

ninebeanrows

The devious Arctic High looks almost certain now to have a big influence on the weather in Northwest Europe from next pushing s pool of intense frigid cold into Scandanavia..

We have not seen the Artctic high creep into Europe since 2001 so forecasting what will happen is very difficult..

But there is scope for an extremely cold blast from the past... Lets watch the models over the next few days and soak up what they have to offer.. Winters last hurrah.. Will it just be phantom GFS runs or will dreams turn into reality??

Don't know what to make of that 12z to be honest.
Useless for the UK snow wise as pressure is too high-maybe a few light flurries in the East.
Very cold though at night with the day being warmer as it will be sunny.
I don't think enough cold air will make it to Ireland to interact with the atlantic air.
You'd need persistance and as we've learned in recent years ,cold making an appearance from the East for 48hrs is very quickly sent packing by the mighty atlantic.

Useless useless useless

More runs to come though so lets see.

That HP needs to be over Northern Noway,not southern Norway.

nacho libre

I don't think any snowfall is going to happen from the East out of this. We would need a week or two of Siberian winds coming in to Ireland as a result of an intense area of high pressure situated in Norway.

Our best chance of nationwide snow at this time of year is a front coming down from the north, followed by a series of trough lines, or better still a polar low coming down from Greenland. Sadly, It has been sometime since our last Polar low,though.

ninebeanrows

I thought winter was over 1 hour ago.. Then i watched the 12z GFS unveil before my very eyes..:eek:






NO COMMENT

ninebeanrows

Maxima for Today 1 week:eek:

I'll comment...
They're taking the píss

Is NW down yet ?

ninebeanrows

Hell i know there taking the piass:D

Still some good eye candy and roller coaster riding!

No NW is grand... UKM is terrible

The difference between GFS OP and UK cannot be described.. You have to look at the 2 of them:eek:

ninebeanrows

it has some support:rolleyes:

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-120.png

HAHAHA that charts even funnier than the GFS!!

pressures a tad too high in that Gem WC


(for precipitation)

ninebeanrows

Tristrame wrote:

pressures a tad too high in that Gem WC


(for precipitation)

:eek:

I wouldnt say no:D

ninebeanrows

Some steps back from an knockout from the Atlantic this evening..

Momentum is on the Easterlies side but probability is on the Atlantics side.

Its about 70/30 at this stage but steadily getting better with the ECM this evening giving some confidence on the GFS

Snowbie

Now thats rare,-16c 850mb temps close to the east on the 12z and -20c over SE UK.
Metcheck are forecasting blizzards for Dublin next thursday.This will be soon doomed again.

darkman2

Snowbie wrote:

Now thats rare,-16c 850mb temps close to the east on the 12z and -20c over SE UK.
Metcheck are forecasting blizzards for Dublin next thursday.This will be soon doomed again.

The progged 850s translate in maximum temps of -4 - -2 onland and sub zero on the Irish sea. Im not going to get into it until nearer the time but the 80's memories are under threat. ECM is a beauty tonight aswell.

Gonzo

metcheck have around 20cm of snow on for dublin next thursday.

It's about as likely Gonzo as 40c in Ashbourne in July Gonzo.

Supercell

Tristrame wrote:

It's about as likely Gonzo as 40c in Ashbourne in July Gonzo.

Lollers!

I've got my snow dosage (some still left in places where they ploughed it to the edge of the road) for the winter..all else is a bonus:)

Would you consider this a bonus?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1682.png

Or this?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1742.png :eek:

Or this?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1802.png :eek: :eek:

Pressures too high on this run.

Snow flurries due to the fierceness of the cold but only a dusting and only on the East coast.

darkman2

Tristame diid you not notice the front that crosses into the North Sea and then comes back bringing very heavy snowfall?:D How about these for maxes in 7 days time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16817.png

No I was just looking at the 850's

If a front headed west under those conditions,do you know what it would mean? yup lots of sneachta??!!
In actual fact thats what happened in january 87.
The snow storm went so far SW that it dropped a few inches in Valentia

darkman2

Tristrame wrote:

No I was just looking at the 850's

If a front headed west under those conditions,do you know what it would mean? yup lots of sneachta??!!
In actual fact thats what happened in january 87.
The snow storm went so far SW that it dropped a few inches in Valentia

Im refusing to call this yet though cause alot can go wrong as we all know too well even though the evolution is 5 days out. If its there Sunday evening then forget about the 80s:D

Supercell

I expect further snowfalls here, but wouldnt be suprised if it was close but no cigar for sea level.
10 years from now, it will be the people that live in the higher 350 metre + regions that can expect snow..i'd like to be one of them!

To be frank.

These cold runs have a nice cold source but don't send it here long enough.
3 days is not enough.
The cold fetch in tonights 18z is like a 6 lane motorway straight to the Urals,but once it's built, the models just want to collapse it again.

If you had that fetch for a week, you'd know all about it!

Won't happen though.

All eyes to countryfile on sunday to see if they put in a cold front advancing west from the continent?
Ditto for the farming one-they'll have to say something on that( eg we are uncertain but theres a pssibility of ... etc) if the ECM is still showing this type of scenario by then.

It's not often you see -14 850's over wexford !

See attached image

Do you think Rosslare would be plus 7c under those conditions or under some kind of a blizzard with maybe some sea ice?

Danno

-13c at 850hpa...

nope, needs to be sub -15, sorry, move along, nothing gonna happen here...

Danno

The GFS is out on its own on this. The GFS whittles the High westwards (in FI) after a low topples over it - could be good if this high crashes into an advancing atlantic front???

BUT! The UKMO is not convincing me [YET]

PS: www.theweatheroutlook.com is down! God bless the poor server there - and we thought boardsie was bad! :P

Snowbie

Blood pressure tablets out again for some.

Unfortunately its 5-6 days away.Will be a chilly affair if came off but like Tristrame said not a long enough time for cold to really penetrate to a severe level.80s style.

Good thing though its showing upgrade after upgrade.Last dance i would imagine for sneachta

Danno

NW is buzzing! Even Darkman is on there trying to spread some Irish calm about!

ninebeanrows

Downgrades this morning as expected.. ECM and GFS were too good to be true last night..

Although this whole fiasco aint nearly over yet.. The models are proving themselves utterly useless

I've made my thoughts clear on NW regarding this WC.

I think its for the bin.

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=36596&st=102&gopid=928799&#

ninebeanrows

Tristrame wrote:

I've made my thoughts clear on NW regarding this WC.

I think its for the bin.

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=36596&st=102&gopid=928799&#

Yea but you cant turn away 14 Ensembles members going for a similar scenario.. and the UKM and the ECM not even being immense

Were jumping on a GEM which is a poor model:rolleyes:

I would rate our chances of an Easterly at around 15%

Tonights 12z's are going to be vital.. but i already feel this has been taken too far away from us already

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

Yea but you cant turn away 14 Ensembles members going for a similar scenario..

I can if each member is a variation of some initial deliberately skewed data.Lets see the 12 and 18z first.

and the UKM and the ECM not even being immense

They haven't even made their minds up!
Last nights UKMO faxes were even discounting their own models output to an extent.

Were jumping on a GEM which is a poor model:rolleyes:

No we're not,that model is just staying consistant-It doesn't mean it's righ-usually its kinda wrong this far out.

I would rate our chances of an Easterly at around 15%

60% chance for me and if you include a cold southeasterly - 70%

Tonights 12z's are going to be vital.. but i already feel this has been taken too far away from us already

Ah FFS,thats silly and you know it.
That said,lets not jinx this.
Winter may well be over...

ninebeanrows

Tristrame wrote:

I can if each member is a variation of some initial deliberately skewed data.Lets see the 12 and 18z first.They haven't even made their minds up!
Last nights UKMO faxes were even discounting their own models output to an extent.
No we're not,that model is just staying consistant-It doesn't mean it's righ-usually its kinda wrong this far out.
60% chance for me and if you include a cold southeasterly - 70%
Ah FFS,thats silly and you know it.
That said,lets not jinx this.
Winter may well be over...

:eek: :eek:

Tristrame what are you doing:eek: :eek:

Dear god if your going for it! Well it might just have a chance of happening..

But being totally honest i don't think so

Gonzo

yesterday metcheck were giving Dublin -3 and snow for Dublin next Friday and today there giving 12C and rain for next friday, bit of a difference:)

Supercell

Lollers, never thought I'd see the day, WC calling Tristrame (rightly in this case ) a cold ramper!!

Snowbie

Tristrame wrote:

I've made my thoughts clear on NW regarding this WC.

I think its for the bin.

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=36596&st=102&gopid=928799&#

60% chance for me and if you include a cold southeasterly - 70%

I wonder could you shed some light on this for me.What is your opinion on the up and coming cold spell?.
I think your in a col atm.:)

ninebeanrows

Gonzo wrote:

yesterday metcheck were giving Dublin -3 and snow for Dublin next Friday and today there giving 12C and rain for next friday, bit of a difference:)

Yea this is split 60:40 according to the ECM Ensembles.. But GFS progression towards the 60% side is worrying..

But ECM show a direct split between 40% going for an easterly and 60% going for mild weather.

Tonights 12z runs will be the most anticipated of all "winter"..

It really is make or break time as crucial developments start occuring at T+48hrs..

I wouldn't say I'm a cold ramper (today)
I haven't a clue what is going to happen this day week just like the rest of ye.
I'm only giving my interpretation of these NWP's and at the moment I think that Scandi high has as much chance if not more chance of developing in the right place as it did last night.
I'm holding that view untill I see more output and untill T-72 or there abouts-thats how dodgy I think these models are with the current set up.

But to satisfy ye,that 60% confidence would drop to 55% if this evenings output is a mild mess and to 30% like the rest of ye if sundays output is similar.

I wouldn't go down to zero though as that would be illogical.

Also that short wave / shallow depression looked fishy to me because it looks like it was tailor made to show the effect it might have going that route on a potential Easterly.
GFS is notoriously (in my time looking at it) dodgy tracking these features 7 days out never mind handling an easterly properly.
Come to think of it,ECM doesn't throw up too many phantom Easterlies either.

I've still got reasonable confidence that we might see a cold Easterly or south easterly but no doubt putting that down here usually jinxes it

nacho libre

Tristrame wrote:

No I was just looking at the 850's

If a front headed west under those conditions,do you know what it would mean? yup lots of sneachta??!!

We would need a sustained period of winds blowing in from Siberia for that to happen. It's not going to happen over the space of two days.
The most likely chance of country wide snow occuring in late February is from the North West not from the East. We rarely get widespread snow from the East in this country. Cursed Atlantic.

Well that 12z was another pile of cack!
From artic high,to scandy fat high to bartlet sinker...

Absolutely no new information gleaned from that run.
I'll call this on Tuesday.
Currently confidence is above 50% with moi.

ninebeanrows

Right thats it

GEM has backtracked

UKM has stuck to its guns

GFS is crap

ECM isnt out yet

But im finished.. Cya in a couple of days.. This just isn't happening:(

ALL HAIL THE MIGHTY ECM*

* seriously though,this is not to be called untill tuesday.
I wouldnt like to be scripting country file or tomorrows lunchtime RTE.
If they committ, theres a good chance they will be wrong.